Election 2012

Mitt Romney Continues to Lead Big Among Independent Voters


Polls throughout the presidential campaign have shown Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney leading among Independents. That trend will continue through Election Day. Across a variety of recent national polls, Romney leads Obama among Independents by an average of 10 percentage points. Not all polls release the partisan breakdowns of their likely voters or make it easy to find; however, when they do, they consistently show Romney leading the Independent vote. (Also driven by the libertarian vote.

Even in battleground states, Romney leads Obama among Independent voters. For instance, a CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll of Ohio, Florida and Virginia likely voters found Romney leading Obama 6 points among Independents in Ohio, five points among Florida Independents, and 21 points among Virginia Independents.


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  1. That lead only means something in context of the electorate as a whole. Is the electorate going to be sufficiently Democratic for Obama to make up Romney’s lead among independents. That is really what it all comes down to. For Obama to win the turn out has to look a lot like 2008 with Democrats having a big advantage. And I don’t see much evidence of that. In fact, all of the evidence I have seen says that it is going ot be an even or slightly Dem turnout and nothing like 2008.

    1. Are independent voters likely to vote?

      1. Yes. Indpendents vote. The polls of likely voters all show large independent blocks.

    2. Are independent voters likely to vote?

      1. How can they be voters if they do not vote?

  2. Among these likely libertarian voters, the presidential horserace currently stands:

    Romney 77%
    Obama 20%
    Other 3%

    Romney’s share of the libertarian vote represents a high water mark for Republican presidential candidates in recent elections.

    And this is why the repubs do not give a fuck about libertarian concerns. As long as you keep voting for the R, that is all they care about.

    1. No! The reason why the Republicans don’t care is the 3% who abandon the major parties!

    2. So even among libertarians, the LP doesn’t break 5%?

      1. so Libertarians really are Republicans who smoke pot?

        1. Or they’re Libertarians who smoke pot and forget to vote.

      2. Depressing if true. If libertarians started voting there conscience, maybe more people would understand what it’s about.

  3. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the…..actly.html

    So, does a man who truly believes that he is about to win really cry at his last campaign stop the night before the election?

    1. He truly believes all this campaign bullshit will be over and he can go back to the much more laid-back job of the presidency.

    2. He lives for campaigning – its like being a rock star, with adoring crowds and all that.

      Once the campaign is over, he has to go back to governing, which he clearly has no use for.

      1. Ah, would that they’d just campaign, and never have time to govern.
        If only…

    3. Notice the headline. “Did the president cry? Not exactly.” How many freaking articles of this type have we seen from the left this cycle? The HHS Mandate isn’t really a mandate. Some factory didn’t close down when Paul Ryan said it did. The Benghazi/Fast & Furious/Whatever cover-up isn’t really a cover-up because [insert hand-waving here].

      Maybe the gist of this Slate article is true, but I don’t care anymore. I’m so damn sick of the condescending, “Everything You Know is Wrong,” mantra. It’s primarily a vehicle for preventing discussion and debate.

      Remember when MNG’s meme was that the “right” was constantly “working the refs” and couldn’t win in the marketplace of ideas? That must have been percolating inside the leftist hivemind, because they appear to have internalized it, synthesized it and made fact-checking, AKA Candy Crowley-style “refereeing” of political debate the centerpiece of Obama’s campaign.

      /end rant

      1. Except all the “facts” are open to interpretation, but in the liberal hive-mind, THEIR interpretation is the irrefutable truth, and everyone else interpretation is an insane lie.

      2. I also hate their choices.

        Why is Obama crying a bad thing that needs to be spun out of existence?

    4. Meh.

      /John Boehner

  4. I am a hardcore Libertarian, and happily voted for Johnson today. But I live in CA, so my vote is worthless. If I lived in OH, VA, FL, WI, etc., I would vote for Romney while holding my nose. Because another big gov’t repub (i.e., Bush the III) is far better than a radical Marxist Communist who hates everything that this country was founded on, and his goal is its destruction.

    1. Disagree.
      The sooner libertarians of all stripes understand the motivation, the sooner they can get to the business of working locally, hearts and minds and all that stuff.
      Obama is no radical commie.
      Mitt (in spite of the braindead left’s nonsense) is no fascist.

      Barack is out for Barack.

      Mitt is out for Mitt.

      And the bureaucracy will expand under either of their reigns. And they will ride into the sunset while the state apparatus livesand grows eternally.
      That is where the focus should be.

      1. Obama is no radical commie.

        I disagree.

        He is a radical commie…only commies run the country and is therefor the moderate position.

  5. Markets are up today, especially gold.

    That tells me the markets think Obama is going to win. If Obama wins, Bernanke stays on and the magical money machine keeps pumping out free money to inflate asset prices and devalue the dollar against gold. If Romney wins, Bernanke is gone, and QE probably gets scaled back.

    1. Isn’t Bernanke retiring?

      1. To his tropical island?

    2. Silver is up more than gold. It also dropped more precipitously when the PM markets freaked out over the job numbers last Friday.

    3. What on Earth makes you think that Romney would get rid of Bernanke?

      1. He said so.

        Of course that does not mean anything which makes me think markets can’t predict election results.

  6. I thought it was precisely because independents lean republican Romney that the nation polls were skewed Dem +8.

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