Election 2012

Romney Takes the Lead in Presidential Poll Average

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Last week I argued that the first presidential debate made it possible for the first time to really imagine what Mitt Romney might be like as president. Apparently a number of Americans are imagining it—and, for the first time it seems, not entirely minding the idea.

In multiple major polls released so far this week, Romney has taken a lead over the president. He's up by four points in the Pew Research poll, and up by two points in polls by Gallup and Investors Business Daily. Somewhat ironically, Rasmussen, which many commentators frequently accuse of leaning GOP in its findings, shows Romney and the president tied.

Overall, the new polls are enough to give Romney his first ever lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Yes, at just 0.7 points, Romney's lead is still a small one. But the only two polls in the RCP average that still show Obama in the lead were taken entirely or mostly prior to the debate. Which suggests that Romney's lead may actually be larger. At minimum, the momentum is now clearly in Romney's favor.

Whether that will matter much by election time is harder to say. As polling guru Nate Silver points out in The New York Times, historically the most important factor in predicting the outcome of a presidential election is still the economy, and the economic fundamentals, mediocre as they are, still mildly favor President Obama. But for now the polls are pretty clearly headed in Romney's direction. 

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  1. I always knew reason was in the tank for Romney!

  2. the economic fundamentals, mediocre as they are, still mildly favor President Obama.

    What the fuck are you talking about?!?!?

    1. People love reelecting the president in a shitty economy!

    2. Peoples expectations were 30% unemployment, worse than the Great Depression and 30 years of crap. It never hit that mark, so Obama is being patted on the back for it. 8% unemployment might not be acceptable for a whole lot of people, but the other half are on their knees saying how it’s not 30%.

      That is the long and short of it.

      1. Peoples expectations were 30% unemployment, worse than the Great Depression and 30 years of crap.

    3. I’d rephrase that as:

      the economic fundamentals, mediocre as they are, still mildly favor President Obama, due to a heroic effort by the mainstream media to play up any good news and downplay or ignore any bad news.

      1. I have a feeling most voters realize the economy is not booming.

  3. How can you guys quote Silver without irony?

    1. Silver always seems to a good job. What are you talking about?

      1. G.D.P. growth, however, has been sluggish ? and growth in take-home income has been worse

        Yeah I do not think silver agrees with Suderman.

      2. the economic fundamentals, mediocre as they are, still mildly favor President Obama.

        That is what I am talking about. That is self evidently stupid.

        1. It’s just reality, John. Deal with it.

            1. It’s the reality of how it works with the electorate, not the reality of…whatever it is you are arguing.

              1. No it isn’t. The economy is terribly by any measure. And the electorate knows it. And so does Obama. If the economic fundamentals favored Obama, Obama wouldn’t be running on Romney is going to take your birth control and other distractions. He would be running on the economy. A good economy is the surest way for an incumbent to get re-elected.

                The fact that Obama and his supporters are desperate to talk about anything but the economy tells you all you need to know about which way the fundamentals cut.

                1. He said that the fundamentals were mediocre and that the favor was “mild”, and that is based on scientific measuring and observations, not a “gut feeling”, so where’s your proof for your own assertion?

                  1. Mediocre is a relative term. But I don’t see how job growth that barely outpaces population growth and a labor participation rate that is the lowest in decades is anything other than terrible. What economic fundamental isn’t terrible? Inflation? Growth? Unemployment? Net worth?

                    I don’t see one.

                    1. John, again, I agree that the economy is bad. So does everyone else. The question is whether those numbers still favor Obama. They do. That’s just a positive observation, not a normative prescription that you can yell about.

                    2. What numbers? The poll numbers? Maybe depending on the poll. But poll numbers are not economic fundamentals. The economic numbers go radically against Obama. If Obama wins, he will have won with the worst economic record since Roosevelt.

                      I don’t see how anyone could say the economic fundamentals do anything but badly hurt Obama. He may win anyway. But it will be in spite of them not because of them. And that Silver is saying they help Obama. That is nonsense.

                    3. I’m with John over Randian on this.

                    4. The economy is not only mildly comatose, it’s been so for years. This is a trend no sane person will want to continue. And, rightly or wrongly, the president typically loses his job when presiding over a downturn like this.

                      Obama loses.

                    5. It seems more likely now, I just wish it was any number of better men than Romney. I look forward to a 2016 of “Jesus, why are we still fucked and now even more in debt (and also we’re at war with Iran, but Obama would have taken us there too so ugh, fuck my life)”

                    6. I like to think that the years of expanding and increasingly unlimited government will take their toll on the parties’ credibility with the voting public at some point. Maybe after Romney and the Republican Congress fail to do jack to fix the problem.

                    7. In historical terms there is no favoring the incumbent. Carter lost with better employment numbers. So, I have to agree Silver is not making any sense in that statement.

  4. Which fundamentals would those be? The unchanged 14.7% U-6? The weak growth numbers? Don’t tell me you’re putting any stock into the bogus U-3 reduction. Yay, lots of low-paying part time jobs!

    1. Must be the high gas prices?

      The flat to declining personal income numbers?

      The contraction in net worth?

      The contraction in manufacturing and shipping?

      Is anyone seriously arguing that 7.8% headline unemployment is a good number?

      1. Is anyone seriously arguing that 7.8% headline unemployment is a good number?

        Obama sycophants and Suderman.

      2. Nate Silver is.

      3. Well, if it turns out that the natural rate of unemployment is really 15%, then yeah, that would be a good number.

        That’s really how a forward-looking party would spin the whole situation: “the 20th century was an anomaly, the bubble has broken, and you [ should thank us || should elect us so ] that things [ aren’t a hell of a lot || don’t get a hell of a lot ] worse.”

      4. Is anyone seriously arguing that 7.8% headline unemployment is a good number?

        Well considering that it “plummeted”* from 8.1%, hell yeah it’s a good number!

        *”plummuted” is the word that was used in an article I read last week.

      5. Employment for those aged 65+ is up.

      6. It’s awesome compared to 1932. You must be one of those BushHooverites!

  5. Query:

    What kind of party affiliation numbers are they using now? Are these numbers moving from the D+7 or 8, even D+11 that we were seeing a few weeks ago? If they are moving, why?

    1. It’s across the board from D+8 to R+4. but the consistent thing is Obama getting crushed among independents. like 20 points. no base is big enough to account for that.

  6. You know what Obama is talking about today. Big Bird. Team Obama doesn’t know how to play tied or behind. It’s like they gave up a goal and pulled Tretiak.

    1. The whole thing was based on Rommney being unacceptable and Obama being fashionable and cool. After the last month, starting with Clint Eastwood making it okay to make fun of Obama and culminating with the debate performance, who seriously thinks either of those things is true anymore?

      1. I posted this in another thread — but the risk of winning as a celebrity is what happens when you’re no longer trendy.

        1. Obama actually thought he won the debate.

          http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new…..aides.html

      2. After the last month, starting with Clint Eastwood making it okay to make fun of Obama and culminating with the debate performance, who seriously thinks either of those things is true anymore?

        Clint eastwood making it okay? WTF? Despite my opinion of Obama, Eastwood didn’t do anyone any favors with the chair exercise.

        1. Yes he did. If you don’t believe me, go look at the current cover of the New Yorker,

          http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…..43947.html

          Eastwood created a meme that stuck like Velcro. It was a brilliantly successful speech. That is why Liberals and the media had such a fit about it. They knew it hurt.

          1. John is absolutely right. Clint’s portrayal of Obama was an almost eerily perfect set up for his debate fail.

            1. what, in that Obama was rendered mostly silent?

        2. Eastwood didn’t do anyone any favors with the chair exercise.

          No one…except Romney. Was that a joke?

        3. I don’t agree at all–I think Romney benefited quite a bit. Eastwood came across as unpolished and honest. This is a good thing for Romney.

          Which is why Johnson needs Kurt Russell to do the same thing for him.

          1. I don’t see it, but maybe others like seeing seemingly senile old men talk to people that aren’t there.

            1. He didn’t seem senile–I saw it. He just rambled. Crap, I’d do the same if I didn’t really give a shit. And he doesn’t.

      3. You know what most definitely wasn’t cool? The “fuck you whitey” speech Obama gave to the dashiki crowd a few years ago which the media successfully covered up until recently and Reason almost completely ignored, but which almost the entire voting public has now seen anyway, thanks to the power of the Internet, e-mail, and smart phones.

        That video which exposed the real Obama and not the recent debate was the true final nail in Obama’s coffin. You can only give mainstream America the middle finger so many times and get away with it.

        1. I have to say loathsome though I find our populist yokel up here, ignoring that speech was pretty shameful.

        2. I’m not sure how much effect the release of that speech had. Do lots of independents and Democrats watch Fox News and read righty blogs? But it certainly didn’t help Obama.

  7. Thing is, Obama could have made all the right moves and we’d probably still be in the same position (though with a different trajectory). He didn’t, but its funny to argue that certain things are all his fault. I’d say if Obama had been a better president, the economy would still be mediocre, but balance sheets would look alot healthier and the jobs being added would be more sustainable. As it stands, instead of allowing America to regroup and recover, he shoved a whole bunch of fuel in an overheating engine to make it this far. The next 4 years are going to be harder for what he’s done, but the last four years weren’t going to be any better.

    1. If he hadn’t passed Obamacare and had worked with the Republicans after 2010 on a serious budget deal, the US would still have a AAA credit rating and the economy would be coming back right now.

      1. I would add the Stimulus in there too…

        and the numerous regulations…

        1. Obamacare alone has saved or created a few million unemployment claims.

          1. And it’s turned a lot of full-time jobs into part-time ones.

          2. Eventually, the lies don’t matter. Winter is coming.

      2. So in other words had he not been a complete chicago ganster union hack…

        1. Margins add up. A little waste in Green energy, a little waste in stimulus where the jobs created cost about 15 averaged salary jobs, a little tighter hand from the bureaucracy, a little corruption transferring wealth to public unions and UAW from private sources, and yeah, his meddling cost at least a good 2% points of growth. That’s the difference of a sound 3.8 growth in GDP and a 1.8 craptastic job killing performance.

  8. Now I’d like to see the Poll results for Obama vs. Romney vs. People who can’t muster a shit.

  9. Predictions:

    late-October/early November surprise ala the Village Voice 47% tape. All gaffes – as reported by the fellatin’ MSM – are done by Romney.

    Both camps are sitting on some scandals and the water carrying media will be sure to help out their boy (that’s racist!) man.

    1. or Obama declared to do “much better” in second debate. Second coming of Christ, etc, etc.

      1. You know that will happen. Although I am at a loss to figure out what Obama can do to actually sound better. I don’t see how going after Romney and getting personal, like liberals all say he should do, would do anything but make Obama look desperate and unpresidential.

        No question, the media is going to claim how great he did. But I am not sure anyone will believe them.

        1. People also don’t watch the later debates.

          I think the viewership will be down considerably…and it will be watched mostly by people who already decided anyway.

          Either by Romney fans who want to see if he can repeat the first debate or by Obama fans who want him to reverse the damage.

          1. The second one will be one of those stupid town hall ones. It will be a parade of inane questions and both of them will just pose. Short of one of them throwing up or insulting one of the questioners, I can’t see how the town hall format will do anything to change the race.

    2. alternative prediction:

      Obama and/or Biden decide to get feisty during the debates. This makes them look small, further damaging their standing.

      1. At this point I don’t know what Obama could do worse. Maybe kick a dog on stage or take a child’s ice cream.

      2. Biden and Obama will both huff and puff a little. Ryan and Romney will let them – then roll eyes and make a joke of it.

        Romney’s “I have no idea what you are talking about” line was effective.

        1. That was a great line. But it showed just how bad BHO’s preparation was. It’s like he hangs out at DU all the time and not only believes a lot of myths, but thinks everyone else does too.

          1. I though his worst moment was when he said “I have a deficit reduction plan, It’s on the internet, you can go look it up and see what’s in it.”

            And then went on to not actually say anything about what was in it, like he doesn’t even know. He didn’t even say what the internet address was, like he doesn’t even know that.

            “I have a plan, you can look it up on the internet” ought to be a running joke for the next 20 years.

    3. Yes, if they had that upo their sleeve since april, they would have held onto it it until mid-october. Unless they had something better for October.

      I predict photos of Bin Laden’s dead body will be unexpectedly “leaked” about 10 days beforet he election.

  10. I think it is over. Romney wins by 2 to 4 points

    Hard to imagine the polls switching again. It would be unprecedented especially this close to November.

    Note: This is assuming that the polls and the bump are even real.

    1. Romney has all the appeal of a stick of butter. If he wins it will be sheer insanity.

      1. I f*ckin’ love butter.

        1. ^^^effin’ this! The only thing that’s better than butter is…bacon cooked in butter!

        2. Butter makes just about anything taste better. Very few things taste worse with butter, and I can’t even think of one right now.

          1. I’ll start you off: beer.

      2. Elections are not about the challenger. They are about the incumbent. All Romney has to do is appear to be a sane credible alternative. Once he does that, it becomes about Obama and his record.

      3. My prediction is simply based on graphs at RCP and other poll tracking graphs.

        I am making no claim who is the best or more appealing candidate.

        Only that a double reverse of polls has never ever happened before.

        1. I agree, I am just in denial. I can’t believe it’s not butter…

          1. These polls don’t really matter all that much. No one really gives a fuck what people think of the candidates nationally. The only place to care about is the few swing states in which the electoral college battle will be fought out. And, at this point, Obama still has a pretty decent lead in most of those states.

        2. More than likely, Obama will win. It is hard to overcome the media bias for him. But, he has no chance to win big.

          Romney has a good shot at winning. But I also think he has a chance to win big, say by the same amount Obama won in 2008.

      4. I much prefer the butter.

    2. Intrade corrected down to Obama as a 3-2 favorite.

      Load up.

      1. They’re still stuck on that number? InTrade has to be lagging.

        1. Look at what it is now compared to what it was even two weeks ago. InTrade is the ultimate lagging indicator. There is no magic wisdom of crowds.

          1. Vegas has Obama a solid favorite across the boards.

            http://www.oddschecker.com/spe…..ion/winner

            You guys are immune to reason and prone to fantasy fulfillment.

            1. So Vegas odds, instead of the polls, are now how we predict who will win?

              That is retarded even for you. God your handlers really don’t have any talking points left to feed you do they?

              1. Ask Al Gore how important winning the popular vote is.

                Nate Silver and gamblers are predicting the election outcome – not the popular vote you dumbass.

                1. Exactly. The swing state numbers have moved a bit in Romney’s favor recently, but not enough for one to bet that he’ll be President-elect on the first Wednesday after the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November.

                2. And now you are reduced to claiming the popular vote doesn’t matter. We have had 60+ Presidential elections and the popular vote and electoral vote have been different twice? And a single time in the last Century.

                  The “popular vote doesn’t count” mantra is the first stage of political grief setting in.

                  1. I’m not claiming that the popular vote doesn’t matter. If it didn’t, people wouldn’t have been so incensed in the wake of Bush v. Gore. Clearly the popular vote matters in many peoples’ eyes. But it sure as hell doesn’t matter for deciding who will actually become POTUS. And right now, the numbers in the swing states say that will be Obama.

                    Note that I’m not hurt or anything over this. I detest the President. But I’m not going to put blinders over my eyes and ignore reality.

                    1. But it sure as hell doesn’t matter for deciding who will actually become POTUS.

                      But it is one hell of a good indicator. Maybe it will be another Bush Gore. But history says that is highly unlikely. Every election the losing side starts pointing to the electoral college as their hope. Doing so is generally a sign of a losing campaign.

                    2. Fair enough. I agree with you that a split between the popular vote and the electoral college is extremely unlikely. Though it would be interesting to watch the pundits if the tables were turned with the Republican winning the popular vote and the Democrat winning the electoral vote.

                      That said, it would be a mistake for people to claim, as so many seem to be doing here, that it’s all over for Obama. The race has tightened a bit. But the President is still leading in the only states that really matter.

                      I wouldn’t put money on either outcome. But it will be fun to watch both sides shitting themselves with worry in the next few weeks.

              2. I would take the betting odds seriously. They’ve got their money on the line, after all. Pollsters, or people answering polls, not so much.

      2. Intrade corrected down to Obama as a 3-2 favorite.

        Load up.

        Nah.

        I am scared. I did not trust what the polls did after the convention and there is no reason to think i should trust this Romney bump.

        My prediction is based on if the polls are real.

        I am in no way going to risk real money on that basis.

  11. Four years ago the economy was in full collapse. GDP was -8.9% annualized.

    By any category we are much better off now – even monthly UE numbers (losing over 500,000 jobs per month then).

    That said, the race is still close.

    1. That said, the race is still close.

      LOL You have been claiming it was a lock for months Shreek. When even even a depraved sock puppet like you has to admit it is close, Romney must be up big.

      1. Nate Silver is the expert – not me.

        1. “expert”

    2. By any category we are much better off now

      Define “much”.

    3. By any category we are much better off now – even monthly UE numbers (losing over 500,000 jobs per month then).

      What’s the unemployment rate compared to then? And the participation rate? Oh that’s right, even the example you specifically chose is wrong.

    4. Four years ago the economy was in full collapse. GDP was -8.9% annualized.

      That is what the economy does…look at every other recession.

      The only difference is we never came back like we did with every other recession since the great depression.

      The economy will always come back on its own, that is what it does….the only way it could have been kept down like it has is by government force.

      Obama (with the help of republicans thank you very much) has his foot on the throat of the economy. So yes he can be blamed for that.

      1. We went through a financial collapse like 1929 – not just a recession (six months of negative growth).

        1. So not nearly as bad as 1921?

        2. No.

          The recessions of the early 80s were similar in depth and length and unemployment (10.8% which is actually higher then our peak unemployment) and recovery was much quicker.

  12. Romney needs to figure out how he’s going to take Ohio.

    1. declining voter registration in the cities. it’s down about 500,000 from 2008.

      1. Early voting up way up, over 200,000 last I checked.

        Obviously, they are trying to stop it, asking the Supreme Court to rule that states can decide their own laws for a Federal electorate, not the feds themselves.

    2. And note this, which hasn’t gotten nearly as much notice as it should: Sixty percent of Milwaukee’s black voters have disappeared..

      1. Reminds me of “Lawyers in Love”.

        1. Did Milwaukee stop being in Wisconsin?

    3. I heard at WSJ his campaign is thinking of taking Colorado in place of Ohio.

      1. It’s a longshot, but the supposed “lock” Obama has on Illinois may not exist. Enthusiasm for him in his core counties is way down, and GOP votes in rest of the state may be enough to put Romney over the top.

        1. I’m not sure of the best way to express my amusement at this comment but I am very amused. “It’s a longshot,” he says. Heh.

      2. play with the real clear politics map.

        Romney could win NV, VA, MC, Florida, Iowa, MO and still only get 269 electoral votes. which is a losing number.

        He needs Ohio…or Pennsylvania which is even a bigger long shot.

        1. Actually, if it’s a 269/269 tie, the election gets decided in the House, which will still be Republican. Get ready for riots if that happens, though.

          1. Actually, if it’s a 269/269 tie, the election gets decided in the House

            I think one can make a serious argument that the constitution is a suicide pact based on that provision.

        2. Romney wins on 269. The election would be thrown into the House, which votes on a state by state basis. The Republicans should still lead there after the election.

    4. Early absentee ballots are trending big time for Republicans in Ohio. Usually a good sign.

  13. Jesus John for someone who hates Mitt Romney and will never vote for him you are sure doing a full Hannity today. (Defend the GOP, no matter how ridiculous, at all costs.)

    1. I don’t write the polls. I just read them. And I can’t help it that the President is a narcissistic idiot who put on the worst debate performance in election history. I know that doesn’t matter to you since you not only would support him putting people in ovens but volunteer to go there yourself if asked. But for the rest of us, those facts matter.

      1. Everybody’s aware of these things. Your lip-synching FOX News’s slant on conventional wisdom adds nothing.

        1. 67% Tony. Two thirds of the country admitted that Obama got his ass handed to him. It was the worst debate performance in history. Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin both did much better. Ronald Reagan didn’t even bother to prepare and did better than that against Mondale. George Bush I didn’t even want to win re-election and checked his watch the whole time and still did better. No one has ever come close to being that bad.

          This guy you clowns sold as a genius and the greatest politician in American history can’t even do a basic political skill like show up to a debate and not embarrass himself. Pathetic.

          1. Bullshit. Romney won the Oscar while Obama won the scriptwriting contest.

            And actors get the real acclaim from the masses like yourself – not the writers.

            1. 67%. Scoreboard dipshit. Romney destroyed him. Mr. Flip flop, the worst candidate in modern history, wiped the floor with Obama. There has never been a worse debate performance than the one Obama gave.

            2. So, now Delusion is a river in Egypt as well as Denial?

            3. WTF does that even mean PB?

          2. I can’t argue with the post-debate polls, but the merits judged by everyone, pundits and viewers alike, were on style. Yes Obama failed pathetically on this count. And there’s no excuse, since it’s his job as a campaigner to try to do well in the debate. Nevertheless he hates debates for good reason: no matter how much anyone tries, they cannot be anything but substanceless political theater.

            1. Obama has an excuse. He is dumb as a post and has spent his entire life around people like you who are terrified to confront a black man. He didn’t have a chance.

            2. Nevertheless he hates debates for good reason: no matter how much anyone tries, they cannot be anything but substanceless political theater.

              But that’s the exact reason he likes speeches.

              1. I’ve never found Obama’s speeches substanceless.

                1. I’ve never found Obama’s speeches substanceless.

                  Sycophant is sycophantic.

                2. I’ve never found Obama’s speeches substanceless.

                  Name three substantive things Obama said in the debate, please.

            3. And if there’s one thing Obama can’t stand, it’s a contest judged on style.

              He’s such a dry wonk, after all.

              1. He’s never been a good debater and never been good at press conferences or anything of the kind. He really does need a teleprompter/memorized speech to be impressive in terms of public speaking.

                Unlike rightwing idiots I don’t think that indicates anything about his general level of intelligence. Most intelligent people I know are also introverts by nature and bad public speakers. Not that Obama lacks for TV-readiness. I do wonder what great presidents we may be missing out on because they’re ugly, bad speakers, or lack in other style qualities that are pretty irrelevant to the job.

                1. Style is the ONLY thing Obama has. And, no he’s NOT an introvert. Baseless assertions, unless you think fantasy is a base.

            4. Oh he hates debates for a good reason, allright. Just not the one you think.

            5. the merits judged by everyone, pundits and viewers alike, were on style

              You call it “style”. I call it “presentation”. He did a terrible job of presenting his views, and wasn’t terribly convincing. That’s pretty much how debates are judged: how well you can convey your message, and how well you can rebut your opponent’s message.

            6. “substanceless political theater” pretty much describes Obama’s (and most politician’s, to be fair) entire career.

          3. Yet, all anyone got out of it is that Romney wants to kill Big Bird; a family icon for the past 40 years.

            1. Fuck off Mary you sick bitch.

    2. There is this word…what is it again…oh yes. Schadenfruede. You see, what can be viewed by a schlerotic ideologue like yourself as unabashed boosterism in the face of the Sun King’s implosion is just schadenfruede on our part.

      1. Yeah. I really don’t care if Romney wins or not. I just want to see people like Tony and Shreek suffer.

        1. Chest thumping like a frat boy who just won a pissing contest is how you display nonchalance?

          1. No Tony. I just really dislike you and people like you that much. Your misery on election night is going to be just delightful. And if you somehow drag obama’s sorry ass back into office, your misery over the disaster that will be his second term will be even more delightful.

            1. Well you are an awful person.

              1. No Tony, you deserve every ounce of hate you get. I would be an awful person if I didn’t hate you or at least feel sorry for you.

                1. Because of my political beliefs?

                  Honestly how do you people live your lives in a constant state of anger and hatred? I disagree strongly on issues but I don’t hate anyone. Hate is a primitive emotion, and a scary proportion of this country, including you, has it constantly stoked by propaganda. It can’t be good for your heart, let alone the country. How long until liberals become ‘cockroaches’ and deserving of the machete?

                  And the really scary thing is you’re among the more sound-minded of the inhabitants of Drudgeworld. Maybe I should root for Romney to protect the country from them.

                  1. You hate everyone Tony. Who are you kidding? Do you even read your posts on here?

                    1. I really don’t. You for all I know are a teddy bear in real life and don’t go around yelling vulgarities at people because of their political beliefs.

                      Now do I believe that some people deserve hatred? Yes. The entire Republican party deserves hatred. It’s the only major political party in a major country that doesn’t believe in climate change. Their power combined with their willful ignorance could very well literally destroy the human race. So all else being equal the planet would probably benefit from all Republicans being put in a room and gassed until they die.

                      But I see little point in actually feeling hatred. It doesn’t really accomplish anything.

                    2. Oh, Tony, don’t tell me that you won’t enjoy the Republican tears if Obama wins.

                      You’re just being all “hatred is mean” and stuff because at the moment your side appears to be losing.

                      Partisans are all sadists when their on top and then morph into pathetic whiney bitches when they’re not.

                    3. Oh, Tony, don’t tell me that you won’t enjoy the Republican tears if Obama wins.

                      You’re just being all “hatred is mean” and stuff because at the moment your side appears to be losing.

                      Partisans are all sadists when their on top and then morph into pathetic whiney bitches when they’re not.

                    4. Actually on one particular I fear an Obama win, because the propagandized Republican base is so completely emotionally invested in hatred of him that who can say how they’ll react. Hopefully demoralization will be the extent of it.

                      One thing liberal propaganda doesn’t do that conservative propaganda does is instill total blind hatred of fellow Americans. The most emotion I can muster for a Republican voter, picturing a smug college Republican type, is “what a douche.” The oldies don’t know any better, like that “He’s an Arab” lady, so I just feel sorry for them.

                    5. One thing liberal propaganda doesn’t do that conservative propaganda does is instill total blind hatred of fellow Americans.

                      Hogwash. I know liberals who have openly stated their hatred for Tea Partiers and even suggested that if they were going to go on a shooting rampage they would be the frist ones they’d go after. The entire movie “God Bless America” is a giant liberal snuff fantasy, made by and for people who hate Republicans and have insanely distorted views about who they are and what they think bouncing around their tiny minds.

                      These are people who would (and have) sooner sympathize with an Islamic suicide terrorist than a Rush Limbaugh fan. There are people who un-ironically use phrases like “American Taliban” to describe Christian Conservatives.

                      The left spews hatred of fellow Americans all day long. They are ALL ABOUT hating capitalism and capitalists and anyone who supports free markets. You’re just plain deluded if you don’t see it.

                    6. I know liberals who have openly stated their hatred for Tea Partiers and even suggested that if they were going to go on a shooting rampage they would be the first ones they’d go after.

                      The saving grace is they don’t own guns and even if they did do not know how to use them….

                      And it is the exact opposite situation with their “victims”.

                      I would not lose any sleep over this.

  14. We’re seeing the poll results from just after the debate. Data in Gallup and Rasmussen from over the weekend suggest the numbers going back down for Romney, possibly due to the jobs report number. We’ll need more data to know for sure, but we seem to be seeing a large poll bounce for Romney because of the debate, but only a bounce and not a permanent resettling.

    Hell, right after the debate I liked Romney. Then I felt dirty for feeling that.

    1. He is probably going to be the next President. So it is good you are getting used to him.

      1. There is absolutely no factual basis for that claim. He could possibly be the next president, but the numbers do not indicate “probably” in any way yet. You don’t even recognize your overexuberant cheerleading, do you?

      2. T o n y does love democracy. So if the majority says to deal with Romney, he’ll enjoy it.

        1. That is right. And we know from the last four years that Tony thinks everyone should respect the office. So I am sure he will avoid saying anything personal or nasty about the new President.

          1. I don’t think I’ve ever said “respect the office.” I honestly have no earthly clue how I’ll respond to a Mitt presidency, considering there’s absolutely no way of knowing how he’ll govern. My hunch is he’ll make deals with whatever Congress he gets, and if he wins it will likely be a Tea Party dominated Congress, and so I’ll have plenty of policy reasons to oppose him.

            The important thing is that Bush earned every ounce of hatred directed toward him. People hate Obama because the teevee and radio people tell them to because he’s a Democrat. Happened under Clinton too. You guys just really don’t like not having the White House. Of all the criticism of Obama out there the tiny amount of it that has any substance is coming from liberals and occasionally libertarians. The Drudge-iverse is just pure propaganda-driven partisan-based hatred.

            1. “When Republicans are criticized, it’s because they earned it. When Democrats are criticized, it’s just mean ol media lying to us.” Uh huh.

  15. New CNN OHIO – 51-47

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c…..ound-ohio/

    Romney has to have Ohio.

    1. Since you are illiterate, I guess it is a bit much for you to RTFA

      American Research Group is also out Tuesday with a poll in Ohio, with Romney at 48% and Obama at 47% among likely voters. ARG’s previous Ohio survey, conducted in mid-September, had Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%.

      “The new polls are a huge boost for Republicans, coming just a couple weeks after a string of polls made them wonder if there was any way to win without Ohio,” says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King.

      Three national polls released in the past 24 hours also indicate the race knotted up among likely voters. And two of the surveys, from ARG and Pew Research Center, also suggest a post debate bounce for Romney.

      “There is clearly movement in Ohio similar to what we see nationally. You see it in our numbers. It’s a very close race in Ohio and you feel it talking to people on the ground,” adds King, who is reporting from the Buckeye State.

      1. How does that contradict anything I wrote, dumbass?

        1. You just put up the 4 point Obama lead implying that things are going well for Obama in Ohio. The article indicates they clearly are not.

      2. This is how illiterate ass-plug is.

  16. Reason’s piling on the horse race narrative, I see.

    I want to see a new analysis of the electoral vote count before we start proclaiming Romney the frontrunner.

    How come nobody is doing that? (Easy answer: because it would show Obama still has a clear lead, and that would be boring).

      1. I don’t know why I read any of the comments to that.

  17. I’m rooting for a clear 49-47 majority vote winner and an equally clear 280ish-260ish electoral college winner for the opposite candidate. I don’t expect good governance, so I’ll take an entertaining legitimacy crisis, instead.

    1. Yeah, exactly. I hope Obama loses the popular vote and wins the electoral college. For the lulz.

      1. Oh and the entertainment value of a lame duck President in charge of a debt crisis.

  18. Oh yeah, worst Obama line:
    “And so I’ve put forward a specific $4 trillion deficit reduction plan. It’s on a website. You can look at all the numbers.”

  19. I predict that Romney will win this election because the economy’s in the crapper. I also predict that he will be a one-term president for the same reason.

    -jcr

    1. Yeah.

      My theory is the debt is the biggest drag on the economy right now.

      If that is true then I see no hope from Romney fixing that problem.

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