Andrew Sullivan Just About Needs Suicide Watch over Obama Numbers
And now a lesson on the dangers of becoming emotionally attached to political figures
I know, I know. Writing about Andrew Sullivan's emotional fulminations can descend into "dog bites man" reporting, but the man got very, very upset yesterday about Pew's polling putting Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama. He asks if Obama just threw the whole election:
The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.
Romney's favorables are above Obama's now. Yes, you read that right. Romney's favorables are higher than Obama's right now. That gender gap that was Obama's firewall? Over in one night.
Terribly demoralized over the results of a single non-Rasmussen poll (he dismisses those out of hand) the superlatives come out flying:
Look: I'm trying to rally some morale, but I've never seen a candidate this late in the game, so far ahead, just throw in the towel in the way Obama did last week - throw away almost every single advantage he had with voters and manage to enable his opponent to seem as if he cares about the middle class as much as Obama does. How do you erase that imprinted first image from public consciousness: a president incapable of making a single argument or even a halfway decent closing statement? And after Romney's convincing Etch-A-Sketch, convincing because Obama was incapable of exposing it, Romney is now the centrist candidate, even as he is running to head up the most radical party in the modern era.
What "imprinted first image" is he talking about? He's gotten so upset about Obama's debate performance (a week later) that it's unclear what he even means. For whom was this debate their first impression of Obama? And the idea that the increasingly fractured Republican Party is "the most radical party in the modern era" is amusingly absurd. Their candidate invented ObamaCare and worries about "garage-based businesses" not being regulated by the government. If only the GOP actually were radical.
Matt Drudge picked up Sullivan's freak-out and placed it as his top story this morning. His blog readers are having hissyfits right back at him:
It's one poll - calm down. He is up five in the Gallup Daily tracking and made up some ground in Rasmussen as well.
His response:
Or as another puts it, "The polls are volatile, but as Obama supporters we shouldn't be." I'm an Obama supporter but also a journalist and blogger. I'm not going to spin for anyone. Leave that to other sites. This one is biased toward my thoughts and feelings but balanced by yours. I'm not on the Obama campaign team, I don't belong to any party, and I feel I have a duty to say what I think when I think it, and let the chips fall where they may. I don't think, in the long run, you'd want me to blog the way true partisans do.
Yeah, this is the guy who declared Obama to be the first "gay president" on the basis of finally agreeing with about half the population that gay marriage is okay and last month wrote a Newsweek cover story about Obama titled "The Democrats' Reagan." Having an emotional meltdown over Obama's poll numbers and debate performance may not count as pure partisanship, but it does indicate an unhealthy attachment toward a political authority figure.
Oh, and of course there's now a parody Twitter account inspired by Sullivan's outburst.
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Salty ham tears may sustain me yet. One debate has given me days of lulz, what will the next one bring?
Great picture, Scott.
Well, we shall see. Andrew Sullivan, he really is the gift that keeps on giving, though I must admit, Chris Matthews and the MSLSD crowd was yummy-delicious-nutritious as well. It almost makes my question my total and resolute hatred of Shit Flopney. Almost.
There's no reason you don't have to continue detesting either of them, Doc.
I'd kinda like to see Obama lose just for the epic butthurt that will consume Sully and his ilk in November as a result.
HA! Thank you Hugh!
Behold:
The OFFICIAL BUTTHURT Form!
The ideal situation, initial round shows Romney taking it. Obama's supporters commit mass suicide. The previous results get corrected by the graveyard vote, Obama wins, but the remainder of the living hate him to such an extent he hides away on the nation's golf course for four years and keeps his mouth shut.
but the remainder of the living hate him to such an extent he hides away on the nation's golf course for four years and keeps his mouth shut.
I think that will happen no matter how he wins.
It has worked so far.
Groovus, darling! I have missed you. While you were gone, Warty has been the one dispensing medical advise. Is it true that if I do not eat the heart of my enemy my baby will turn out weak, pale, and sickly?
It really depends on who the enemy is, doesn't it?
Well, there is that doe goat we have that is enamored with sloopy and bucked me square in the stomach.
Human would be best, but if you have no human arch-enemy, I suppose a goat will do.
There are rituals to put your enemy's soul into the goat, anyway. I'd recommend one of those.
Are you certain the enamoring doesn't go the other way?
I guess Banjos is just too fancy for some down home, old fashion heart meat.
Some us still remember her from before she got all stuck up.
The bright lights and fast living of central valley California changed me. I don't even want to know what is going to become of me when the high speed rail is built.
Simple, you will be cremated, since the graveyard space must be requisitioned for the rail track that will never be lain. You just keep waiting for that HSR, not even Baby Spicer will see its fruition, much less its beginning.
Oh good, the idea of having my bones resting in this shit hole of state horrifies me.
Ah, 9 weeks left. Your other half filled me in your maternal status, all should be well, though there will be a few challenges. Did you know that Sullivan was opining on the paternity of your bundle of joy to be? Sully is a sick one. I think he want his own uterus...
Yes, it is indeed true, and it must...MUST...be your most archest of arch-nemeses, otherwise baby could have iron poor blood and lack surfactant and be autistic. Also, the heart must be removed forcibly with a medieval weapon. I suggest a flail, but any battle axe or broadsword will do.
You mean someone like this...
Your Own Personal Archvillian
(sung to the tune of Your Own Personal Jesus)
Weapon? What about bare hands? We don't want Banjoopy coming out a sissy.
It's for the iron content. Remember, I specified a medieval weapon, something with a high iron ore content. Are you suggesting one who swings a battle axe is somehow a mushy softy weenee? The Nordic folk would like to have a word with you...
Whoa, removing a heart with a flail will take some effort, and probably not leave much heart.
I recommend a steady diet of political blogs and columns for the remainder of your pregnancy.
That way the baby will be able to live entirely on a diet of salty ham tears.
No matter who loses, I win.
The panic at DK is just as yummy and delicious.
Today in Slate there is a feature article asking whether Republicans will accept an Obama re-election. We will never reach peak projection.
That quote sounds better in the original Cambodian.
2008 was Year Zero for the Tolerant Herd.
I love going to Kos. God, what would you call it when Schadenfreude goes from a healthy, dabbled-in habit to a full-on craving? 'cause I haz it. Bad.
Schadenfreude Die Kristalnact nicts kontrollen. I think.
No one who speaks German could be an evil man.
The Hugh, the.
I OD'ed on it for all of Election Night 2004 and the days after. Heres hoping for a repeat.
I'm tired of the uneducated masses. I don't even know how to find this mythical cult of them and talk to them about how things really are. They are in desperate need of a progressive education
Like I've said before, "Democracy isn't so much fun when it fucks you, is it?"
Don't by shy to post this on your liberal friends' Facebook feeds.
I like this one...apparently Obama is too be revered as the Sun King or sumpin...
I've seen similar sentiments expressed on other boards--"That's the President, and you better show some respect!!"
My response to that is always, "Or else what, Internet Tuff Gai?" For some reason, they never bother to inform me of the consequences of "disrespeckin'" the jug-eared ignoramus.
Know what I hate worse than, "That's the President: Show some respect!"?
"Respect the office, even if you don't the man."
Just call him "The Chimp-in-Chief".
Leftists just love a good joke comparing the President to a monkey....oh, they don't do that anymore? Why not?
It's a job, not a title of nobility. Basically, he is the gardener, and he fucking sucks at his job.
In all seriousness, I think a little research tracking the changes in the models the pollsters use, and the claimed justification for those changes, would be quite illuminating.
Specifically, we were all marvelling at the weighting given to D v R v I in the polls a couple of weeks ago, and especially at the D+7 all the way up to D+11 or 13 in some polls.
Are those changing? If so, why?
I am somewhat baffled by the reactions of disciples here. All they had to do was report that Obama did fine in the debate or that it was a tie and this could have been avoided. It's almost as though they actually started to believe the human being they were propping up was divine. And that his opponent was a cold and unlikeable robot.
The cult of liberalism is more powerful than even the cult of Obama. If it looks like Obama is going to lose, they will turn on him like wolves. Remember, the ideology is never wrong. It only fails because its followers fail it.
I still think Obummer is a lock; there is still early voting going on, and I understand that the military absentee voting is being hampered.
That aside, they will not turn on him, John, should he lose. They can't, and maintain the facade that lefty progs cannot be racist.
The early voting returns are favoring Romney, at least that's the word on the street here in Ohio.
The whole racism part will be a bit tricky. But never under estimate people's ability to lie to themselves. These are the same people who think it is okay to call Clearance Thomas a house slave. That Obama is black won't stop them from turning on him if they feel they have to to avoid admitting liberalism was a failure.
Somewhat relevant: Black actress endorses Romney, hilarity ensues.
Stacey Dash has a Playboy spread.
GO FIND IT NOW. You will not be disappointed.
And remember, she posed when she was 40-years-old.
DOEZ TIDDIES!
Pretty smile, cute chin, dreamy eyes. I was sold before the clothes came off. But yeah, that's a hell of a figure.
she's like Lolo Jones but w/ a woman's curves. thank you.
Wow.
What's remarkable is that she didn't back down or give some half-assed apologia when the backlash began. She basically responded, "I'm not changing my mind, goons--Romney's better."
Obviously, she doesn't have to worry about whether or not she gets work in Hollywood anymore to be so outspoken.
Remember kids, tolerance only means people can look different or fuck different. It doesn't actually mean that you can disagree with them.
I believe the narrative now is questioning whether Obama actually secretly doesn't even want a second term. It's also mentioned on Sullivan's blog elsewhere. I considered including it in the post but it was getting a bit long already.
Clearance Thomas He's that half black half Jewish guy, right?
They're not racist for thinking Obama wasn't competent enough to succeed. Obama, being black, has been so oppressed by society (especially Republican voters) that he was never on even ground with more successful, white liberal heroes.
Nothing racist about thinking a black man failed because he was denied a balancing level of support. It actually makes you more racially sensitive.
I really think the opposite is true. I think people were so caught up, so invested in Obama's superiority that they were shocked into a mass crisis of confidence over one lousy debate performance.
Yet there was never a basis in fact to think Obama was superior to anything. Like, say, this coffee mug on my desk.
I guess it depends on how much cream is in your coffee.
Yup. Two big myths the media created: that Obama was a great speaker even without a teleprompter; and that Romney was a lightweight pushover.
Even that's not enough to explain the debate. To explain it you also need Obama buying into the media narrative so much that he didn't even bother prepping.
Well, the media wants a horse race. It was getting pretty boring with the whole Obama's-a-lock thing, and having Romney pull and upset victory was just the thing to add a little drama.
Plus, liberals let themselves get led around by the nose by the liberal media, so as soon as they started weeping it turned into a huge feedback cycle.
Talk about echochamber effects. Chris Mathhews cries into his soup bowl and we hear the reverberations from Andrew Sullivan's lips.
"Chris Mathhews cries into his soup bowl and we hear the reverberations from Andrew Sullivan's lips"
Um, yikes?
What, you don't like the metaphor?
I liked it. Keep 'em coming.
I got an "Obamabot centipede" image from that. Disturbing, yet humorous.
Rasmussen has Romney up in 11 swing states
http://www.rasmussenreports.co.....cking_poll
Something called the American research Group has Romney up in Ohio
http://americanresearchgroup.c...../OH12.html
And there is reason to believe early ballots may make the lead in Ohio even larger.
And Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin seem back in play.
I honestly hope that Sullivan has some kind of a meltdown if only because it would finally cause him to get the professional help and counseling he has so desperately needed for at least 8 years now.
That's true. He has been overly obsessed with Palin's uterus, and I don't think he ever quite got over that one. He's an odd bird, no doubts there.
He should have been fired and not allowed in polite company over the Palin thing. He was writing column inch after column inch in the Atlantic examining pictures of Palin trying to find a baby bump clear through 2009. It was pathetic and disgraceful. It got to a point where The Atlantic was just exploiting him for attention and extra site hits. If they would have fired him, he might have gotten some help. As it was they just enabled his insanity.
JOOOOZZZ DID 9/11 PALIN!!!!!!
Andy Sullivan: The Howard Beale of The Atlantic.
Rasmussen Reports issues our daily Swing State Tracking Poll to supplement, not replace, individual state polling. In Colorado and Ohio, Obama leads by a point. In Iowa and Nevada, the president is up two. He now leads by three in Wisconsin and has jumped to double-digit leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Romney leads by one in Virginia and two in Florida. He's ahead by three in Missouri, North Carolina and New Hampshire. See the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
So, basically Rassmussen is reporting that Obama is still ahead in Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Romney is ahead in Virginia, Florida, Missouri (is that even a swing state?), North Carolina and New Hampshire.
By my count that still has Obama winning the electoral count.
So again, Obama is still winning.
No he is not. At best he is in a statistical tie in those states. One and two points are within the statistical margin of error.
He is only winning if those polls show the actual turnout model correctly. And if you look at the Pew polls or really any other polls on voter intensity don't show that.
Obama is in a lot of trouble right now.
I'll admit, I had no idea Obama would fail at the debate as hard as he did. If he bombs at round 2, I'm fairly confident Rombot 3000 has got this in the bag. Appearances matter and Obama looks like he'd rather go golf than be president anymore. On the level of a Bush the elder deflation.
Isn't the next debate on foreign policy? I can't imagine how current events can be spun to show Obama in any kind of positive light. Unless Romney falls absolutely flat the debate goes to Romney by default.
No. Romney could scare the shit out of everyone by sounding as warmongery as Bush. Then they'll all remember that the reason they voted for Obama in the first place wasn't because of the economy, it was because of Iraq.
I really don't understand the polls for several reasons. Romney is beating Obama among independents by a huge margin, GOP enthusiasm and self-identification is way up, Democrats are demoralized, the young have lost most of the Obamamania they had four years ago, and yet the race is this close?
I still think several unaccounted-for things are going to hurt Obama: The Shy Tory Effect. The Bradley Effect, compounded by years of people being told they're racists for disagreeing with Obama. The cleaning of the voter rolls in many states, plus ID requirements in some.
Take the states you listed Mittens ahead in and add Ohio to it, and that's The End.
"I'm an Obama supporter but also a journalist and blogger. I'm not going to spin for anyone."
"Look: I'm trying to rally some morale"
+100
Yeah, those statements were particularly cognitively dissonant. But Sullivan being out of his gourd is not news.
OM NOM NOM NOM NOM
Can I haz yummy tears?
"Everybody is a partisan but me."
This whole business is so much bullshittery. Obama had a poll advantage for a very brief time, one that the media tried to make into a giant "Game over, man, game over!" Naturally, it was no such thing.
I think the problem for some of the leftist media is that they went so overboard in saying that a poll now meant death to Romney in November, that the reversal must mean the same for their beloved candidate. Hoist by their own petard.
Even at his best, he never cracked 50% in any poll that even attempted to model the expected turn out. What is funny is that the idea behind trotting out all of those bogus polls was to convince Republicans Obama had the race won. Instead, they seem to have convinced themselves.
he never cracked 50%
2008 polls he never really broke 50% either.
At least not until the very end.
He wasn't the incumbent in 2008. Not cracking 50% is a big deal for an incumbent.
Clinton won in 96 with less than 50%
Thanks to Perot's 8%.
Wasn't that in 1992?
Perot got 19% in 1992.
Did he really get 8% in 1996? I don't even remember him running.
Yup. Neither time did Clinton crack 50% of the vote.
I think the problem for some of the leftist media is that they went so overboard in saying that a poll now meant death to Romney in November, that the reversal must mean the same for their beloved candidate. Hoist by their own petard.
You're neglecting the possibility that they're feeding those perceptions on purpose, because it creates more drama.
I suppose that may be a partial motive, but too many media outlets are playing favorites for that to be the principal motivation.
Here is the real mystery: why is a self-described libertarianish conservative like Sullivan all in the tank for Obama?
By Sullivan's own words, he opposes regulated healthcare, progressive taxation, redisitribution, and stands in support of pluralism and gay rights.
So what the fuck, Andrew?
His identity is more important to him than his principles.
He went full retard over the Iraq war, if I recall correctly. Ever since then he's been a Team Blue shill.
He was a supporter of the Iraq war. Then it got hard and unpredictable and he ran back to the other team. Sullivan, even before he went insane, completely lacked principles. He wrote whatever he thought would get him ahead.
So then, in this case he's probabyl feeding the horserare bullshit because more people will read his blog that way.
So in a couple of weeks he'll fall in love with Romney.
In conjunction with this statement, his recent wailing over Obama makes some sense. If correct, as the election comes closer he'll keep wailing about how Obama's going to lose, but he'll slowly segue into "disillusionment" with Obama.
After the election, he'll reveal that's he's become totally disillusioned with his former Messiah. In the 4 years to come, he'll come to embrace Romney more and more, culminating in an article detailing his process of realizing Romney isn't so bad, and is a better president than the failure that was Barack Obama.
As the 2016 election draws near, he'll throw the same tantrums over Romney's opponents as he does today over Obama's.
But that's just wild speculation, of course. I'm not expecting it. But if he's as opportunistic as some here think, that's the route he'll probably go.
Actually, he flipped when he realize Bush wasn't going to legalize gay marriage. Overnight he went from loving Bush to considering him a war criminal.
As the band Living Colour strummed: "A Cult of Personaaaaaaal...ah...teee!"
It could be construed that Mr. Sullivan is overly obsessed with race as well, and fed by the historic nature of BO's election to the WH. That's my theory, FWIW.
Living Colour
Racist.
I don't care if Jim Carrey was on it.
Band, Tulpington. Not the teevee show. You really need to indulge those prunes I suggested to you a couple of years ago. I have a hunch you are quite...backed up. -))
A little anal penetration might do him some good as well.
Not the show. That guy who always wore a wetsuit.
That guy who always wore a wetsuit.
danny glover's son, corey
It's quite possible that he's a little insane.
Applying logic to the behavior of a guy who enjoys being anally penetrated is a futile endeavor.
What the fuck is the matter with you?
He's Tulpa, that's what.
I mean, aside from that.
I'll go all 2002 here and say that Tulpa is projecting his own disgust with his anal fetishes into hate on others.
How very closeted of you, Tulpa.
Oh, leave Tulpa alone. He tried it four or five hundred times and then decided he didn't like it. You can't say Tulpa didn't give being anally penetrated a chance.
Good fucking question. I like it when Tulpa the Little Hater comes out to play. It's one of his honest moments.
Of course hating on people who like Michael Bay movies is totally apropo.
Botched joke, apologies to all those who appreciate a stuffed rectum out there.
WTF?
"Fuck you, Tulpa"
--Socrates
Fake Socrates would make a great Twitter account.
And a good band name, if not taken already.
Barfman needs a twitter account.
He's too busy keeping scum like you off the streets.
A full time job to be sure
"I drank what?" - Socrates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdHp0FmEr78
You suck Tulpa.
You first.
It's ok to insult people for their political beliefs, but not their sexual preferences.
And if their political beliefs and sexual preferences are related, that's on a case by case basis.
He was the editor of the New Republic, he was only conservative relative to that standard.
Again. Both sides need to take a chill pill. One poll does not a trend make. Obama still has a 3 point lead on Gallup's tracking of registered voters (although Romney is ahead by 2 amoung likely voters). But that's not even looking at the electoral map.
Where is Romney in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Virgina?
Worse, Obama's approval rating has risen to a solid 10 point approval-disapproval gap. When it was dead even or slightly negative up through the summer. Which tells me that his support is solidifying.
It's way too early to conclude that he's losing.
But that's not even looking at the electoral map.
Where is Romney in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Virgina?
Apparently he is doing quite well in Ohio.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10.....y-blowout/
So the Daily Caller reports that pols show Obama ahead by 5-8 points and then spin it to say Romney is really winning- based on a rumor about absentee ballots, many of which are likely from military personnel, and you interpret that as Romney doing "quite well"?
Common sense, Hazel. As the article points out, if the poll were true, then Obama would be on track to do better than 2008. And that just cannot be correct.
That is not a rumor you half wit. They are looking at the absentee ballot requests and taking that as an indication of what the D v. R turnout will be. And the requests so a huge drop off in D turnout, which is very bad news for Obama.
Look deeper into the Pew poll. The worst thing about it is not the raw numbers. It shows Dems in general and blacks in particular are much less enthusiastic and likely to vote now than in 08. That alone spells doom for Obama.
They'll vote. So it doesn't matter.
Blacks are going to vote, John.
You can't treat their enthusiasm levels the same way as if the Democrats were running a white guy.
The polls, especially the Pew one says otherwise. The black vote is going to go back down to its historical average this year. No way is it going to be what it was in 2008.
^This. Many blacks are hugely disappointed in Obama, in part because of the sucky economy, and in part because of the gay marriage thing. They may not vote for Romney, but they're not going to turn out in 2008 numbers for Obama.
You've got to be joking.
The fact that a black man is president is going to trump all of that, by far.
I don't think you understand how black people think about Obama.
Even COLIN POWELL voted for him. On the grounds that "the greatest gift I can give my son is to show him that a black man can be president of the United States".
And you seriously think that gay marriage is going to put a dent in that?
Nope. The gay marriage proposition went down in California in large part because of blacks voting against it.
By which I mean "Yup." A dent, at least.
Server squirrels, please fix "Preview"!!
Black people don't vote on gay marriage. They are single issue voters, but the single issue (in this case) is race.
Doesn't even need Colorado and Nevada.
Nor Iowa, for that matter.
Nor Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.
Florida + Ohio + Virginia + New Hampshire = Game Over
It's Bush's fault that Obama isn't doing better in the polls. Bush left the polls in such shambles that Obama just couldn't recover them in time for the election.
+1
The cynic in me is starting to believe this was planned by Obama.
He beat Hillary to the nomination in '08 in a similar manner. First he's up a bunch then she appeared to even it up and even take a slight lead and then he wins fairly handily at the end. He's following the same thing here. One marginally good debate performance at the end and he clinches it by a wide margin because his supporters will claim he has indeed been resurrected and we can all breathe a sigh of relief.
He didn't plan this. And yes if he goes out and does anything in the last two debates, his supporters will be telling the world how brilliant he is. But that won't help him. The problem is that his entire justification for re-election was "you can't elect Romney". And Romney, by putting on a good debate performance put lie to that. At this point, it doesn't matter what Obama does in the debates. Romney showed himself to be a credible alternative in the first debate. With Obama's record being so bad, that will be enough. Obama's only hope is that Romney does something monumentally stupid in the final two debates.
I concur with John. The independents' hesitation on Romney was that they thought he was the Second Coming of Bush combined with the radicalism of the Tea Party. Now that hasn't panned out and everyone sees Romney isn't the lunatic Team Blue made him out to be, he's a credible alternative.
I think John has it right too. Narrative shift.
A narrative shift led by the media. They are the masters of narrative, and they want a nice dramatic one, but they also want Obama to win in the end.
I think they let this one get away from them.
You think wrong.
Ryan will wipe the floor with Biden in the Vice Presidential debate (that's inevitable), but then when the second Romney/Obama debate comes around, Obama will be on the offense, and the media will slobber all over him and it will be a "win" for Obama and he'll pull it through at the last minute.
Hazel,
You need to go on some meds if you think the media is so sophisticated they would plan to manipulate the race so that "Obama pulls it out in the end". They are totally in the tank for Obama. But they are not going give Romney an artificial boost so it gets closer. That is just nonsense. Obama has no record and Romney managed to look more Presidential and a credible alternative. That is all there is too it.
Put away the tin foil hat.
"Obama will be on the offense"
and when you just shit the bed, that's comes of as desperate. What could they possible do to criticize him now that hasn't been tried.
Obama just had to not fuck up at the debate. He did and gave people an excuse to look at Romney.
Obama ran and won as a celebrity. He was trendy. Now he's not.
Indeed. And Obama has never been that good without a teleprompter. Sure, if he does even halfway decently in the next debate, the media will proclaim him the victor, or that it's a tie at worst. But the spell has been broken: Obama is no longer Mr. Hopey Changey, he's just a desperate incumbent making excuses for his record and attacking the other guy. The undecideds were expected to break for Romney, and that's happening. Romney's also got the momentum now.
when the second Romney/Obama debate comes around, Obama will be on the offense,
Worst thing he could do.
First, voters don't like aggressive politicians.
Second, it will come off as overcompensating.
Third, Obama's natural version of "offense" is arrogant dismissal and snarky put-downs, which won't sell. And by all accounts, he hates him some Romney, so if he goes that way, it will be ugly.
Fourth, if Obama tries to go out of his comfort zone of (a) arrogant dismissal or (b) bored disdain, he will fall flat.
Yeah, it seems that Romney's gains have come from women, and women don't like the attack stuff so much.
They didn't like his condescension or smirks during the first debate either. Women just hate that stuff...
If I were Obama, I wouldn't roll my eyes at anything Romney says--not even once.
It wasn't planned, but it may well be an unplanned rope-a-dope. There was no way Obama's expectations could have been lower than Romney's for the first debate. Now Obama has all the room in the world expectations-wise. Tweak a few of his problems and suddenly he's back.
The thing that was bizarre was how Romney got away with flip flopping so flagrantly. Obama won't make that mistake again.
Now Obama has all the room in the world expectations-wise. Tweak a few of his problems and suddenly he's back.
Not that reality will matter, but unless he completely, unequivocally falls on his ass again, there's no way his acolytes don't spin the next debate as "Obama the Comeback Kid!!" Anything--and I mean anything--will be grasped on as evidence that he held his own in an attempt to force that narrative.
This is why I thought that stupid Sharpie On Your Hands meme was an indication that Obama's team thought he had it in the bag. No campaign that thinks they are in for a fight would do something that superficial and juvenile and think it would actually gain them voters.
Wanna bet on that?
Not really.
The thing that was bizarre was how Romney got away with flip flopping so flagrantly.
Citation?
I'd love to walk up to him on the street and slap a wad of gum into that beard of his.
Joke would be on you. Sullivan is well-known on the bathhouse circuit as a "gummy bear."
That and Bare Bear.
That's closely related to your designation as a "scummy bear", right?
What I do with pole skimmers is my business, poolophobe.
Heloise recommends algae as a cheap substitute for K-Y.
OK, that is just gross.
"Smells like ass soup in here."
It's almost as if Obama knew that I placed a bet on him winning re-election and is now doing everything in his power to screw me out of my precious $30.
$30 USD???? Too rich for my blood. $2, that's my limit, but right now at this moment, I don't have a dime on me.
I placed my bet when his odds were something like -110, bet 30 to win 25 or so. But it was in January and after seeing the Republican primary candidates Obama seemed a shoe-in. Now he's doing everything he can to lose this election.
What about 10-kopiyok coins?
Just for reference, Whiterun Guard owes me $20 if Obama doesn't crack 300 EVs.
Intrade had Romney at $3 to get you $10 at one point. I wanted to bet $100 or so on him (prior to the debate), thinking the polls were skewed and he had a lot of soft support. Of course, US law doesn't allow for debit cards to be used for that, because FYTW.
Some of you may have heard this before, but it seems to me like the Democratic Party stopped being about issues a long time ago. They only have one issue--the issue is Barack Obama.
The Democratic Party has become a personality cult.
That's all there is to it.
Well, not this hour, so go ahead and tell us again.
As new data points become available...
And when you see some that suggest Democrats still do care about issues, please feel free to bring them to my attention.
Either way this election goes, it's gonna be real interesting to see what happens to the Democratic Party once Obama is no longer in office.
It may be like the Bull Moose Party without Teddy Roosevelt, or the Chavistas or the Peronists. What would be the point of being a Chavista if there were no Chavez? What's the point of being a Peronist without a Peron?
If Obama hangs on for another four years, the Democrats may not have any issues of their own left anymore at all.
Based on the Obama supporters I know, the "issues" are: Obama likes gays, is not a racist, and doesn't want to grind the poor and sick under his heel the way Romney does.
If gays were such an issue, why didn't they hate Obama four months ago, when his position on Gay Marriage was exactly the same as cultural conservatives?
I know they've got their perceptions, but perceptions aren't issues.
They just knew that a Democrat would be more pro-gay than a Republican, and was hiding it for political reasons.
yesterday about Pew's polling putting Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama. He asks if Obama just threw the whole electio
Even I had to admit I was very surprised by those numbers. As an avid NPR listener, PEW has had Obama up by like, oh, 100 points since 2006, so when NPR reported the latest PEW numbers, I was like... so one debate shot Romney up by like, what a thousand points?
If I were an Obama supporter, I'd be depressed too.
No matter, Obama will be our next president, wish Bush standing on his shoulder giving him continued advice.
Robot Andrew Sullivan visits Red Eye with Greg Gutfeld.
Yeah, I saw that. I hadn't laughed so hard in years.
The Democrat's Reagan--why, because he's accumulated more debt than any of his predecessors?
Their candidate invented ObamaCare and worries about "garage-based businesses" not being regulated by the government.
Two lies in one sentence. Looks like the dishonesty productivity numbers are up around here.
I dont see any.
Both of those are fair.
Why is his beard so perfectly trimmed? It's creeping me the fuck out.
Romney's influence.
Maybe he and Brian Wilson of the Giants share the same barber.
You're just jealous.
Nuh uh. No way. You sound gay, fag.
I am the gayest monster since gay came to Gaytown, after all.
"God, you're gay! You don't think violence solves anything?!? What kind of monster are you, anyway?!?"
Has that pray the gay away program you went through worn off already?
I ate so many chicken sandwiches to put him through gay camp, too. You know the only thing they put on those sandwiches is a pickle slice? Monsters.
It wore off while I was still there.
Frylock: Don't mind me, I'm just a sailor on shore leave... from the Ship of the Damned!! Muah hah hah!
Meatwad: Okay.
Frylock: You know, the Ship of the Damned?
Meatwad: Nuh uh.
Frylock: Famous short story about a ship that had a hole in it?
Meatwad: No.
Master Shake: Yeah, just go put on your ballerina shoes and get the rest of the outfit, be who you really are...Dr. Zhivago. Yeah, you suck.
He trims it to mimic Sarah Palin's bush.
That's not a beard, it's a hobby.
Romney is now the centrist candidate, even as he is running to head up the most radical party in the modern era.
What amazes me is people say this shit like they actually believe it.
That is because they do actually believe it.
1. So the GOP is more radical than the LP?
2. Ignoring 3rd parties, has he forgotten Goldwater?
More radical than the Green Party?
Green Party = good radical.
GOP = Bad Radical.
They do believe it. They have no proof of it, but articles of faith don't require proof.
Given Sullivan's serial-man-crush approach to politics, I expect that what this really means is that Obama just threw away the election for Sullivan. The magic has ended, and if Romney wins, I wouldn't be suprised if in a few months Sullivan is going on about how dreamy a president Mitt is.
Sullivan spent the first Bush term as a Bush supporter. So, that would not surprise me at all.
Speaking of man-crushes, will David Brooks start slobbering over the crease in The Flopster's trousers?
Only if Romney loses. There is nothing people like Brooks and Frum hate more than a Republican with the nerve to win an election.
From Fake Andrew's Twitter:
"If the debate was the Phantom Menace, Obama was Jar-Jar Binks"
Hahaha!
And: racist!
Jar-Jar Binks was racist in to begin with. Fucking Jamaican accent.
Or as another puts it, "The polls are volatile, but as Obama supporters we shouldn't be." I'm an Obama supporter but also a journalist and blogger. I'm not going to spin for anyone.
Spin...spin...spin away, Sullivan. Oh, congratulations on your governmnent permission to date whoever/whomever (Someone call Cavanaugh to get a ruling on that) you want.
Who the hell spends that much time trimming their scrotum? Oh, that's what Andrew Sullivan looks like? That is...unfortunate. Do hookers charge him extra? Does their rejection make him cry?
He looks like a giant ban roll on deodorant.
It's interesting that the modern left terms Republicans as "radical." What exactly about the status quo is Team Red attempting to fundamentally change?
Nothing. That shows you how insane the media really is. I have said this before. In a sane world, Romney would be the Democratic nominee. But the Republicans are radical? Really? About what?
Take Romney and Ryan and imagine them in the 88 or 92 Democratic primaries. They would have both been serious contenders. But it is the Republicans who are radical.
How about increasing govt by 4% instead of 6%! It's RADICALLZZZZ!!!!!111!!!!
They're going to force your daughter to borrow $18 grand for condoms, or something.
Hairy Bear would be sad about Sesame Street moving to cable.
I have a hard time believing that one of the major networks wouldn't pick them up for a slot in the afternoons, considering the size of their audience and the commercial revenue that could be brought in from it.
It has outlasted shows like The Electric Company and 3-2-1 Contact, which were, quite frankly, a lot more interesting but didn't have the Henson touch and marketing machine. As far as I know, Sesame Street's been nothing but The Elmo Show for the last 12 years.
PBS already has their own cable channel (co-owned with Comcast) called PBS Kids Sprout.
A Brazilian student is auctioning off her virginity to raise cash to build homes for poverty-stricken families.
Catarina Migliorini, 20, is set to plough the money into a fund to build modern houses for the needy in her home state of Santa Catarina.
http://web.orange.co.uk/articl.....or_charity
And this would even be tax deductible.
Great body, a bit of a butterface, though.
She looks okay to me. She is not perfect. But the face isn't that bad.
Nope, she hasn't gotten any more attractive since this story was first posted here 3 weeks ago.
She has a great body and an okay face. The fact isn't great. But with a body like that it doesn't have to be.
She's not current bid at ~$150k attractive.
Depends on how much money you have. To some $150K isn't a lot.
And how much of a virgin fetish you have.
What kind of idiot would buy her instead of 150 top-shelf whores? It's not like breaking a hymen is a particularly sexy process, anyway.
Some people are really into that. I don't get it either.
how would the winner know that she is actually V material? Does the winner get to take her to the mechanic, er,gyno of his choice prior to writing the check?
For that kind of money I would hope so.
And how much of a virgin fetish you have.
None.
I think that any bump Romney got after the debate probably has little to do with Obama's performance, bad as it was. It has more to do with Romney appearing once again in his natural state as a squishy centrist (like that whole Etch-a-Sketch thing). After months of the democrats and Romney himself trying to portray him as some sort of far right conservative, some people might have started to believe it. Now, hared core conservatives aren't going to swing for Obama and Obama true believers aren't going to vote Romney. It is the squishy center that makes up the swing vote and Romney showed that he is still one of them and not some sort of conservative ideologue.
That is pretty much it. Think about this way. If you are part of the 25% or so of the population who will decide this election and have no strong feeling towards either guy, how could you have watched the debate and concluded that Romney was unfit to be President? You couldn't have. And once you conclude Romney is fit for the job, the question becomes should you fire Obama. And that is not a question Obama wants voters asking.
Now, geez, I could have sworn I saw this once already today.
Only once? What are you actually working or something?
Now we know the exact percentage of Team Blue morons.
Not as large as I thought. But the most vocal ones always ARE the idealogues.
This. I would have put it at around 50.5%.
But in defense of the 20% stat, like John points out, this shows us how many people are willing to actually lie to themselves.
What that means is the rest of the Team Blue peeps admit that Obama did a worse job, but don't care.
And again, the most common statement I read in the press after the debate was:
Romney wins on style, Obama wins on substance.
That's assuming the debate responses correlate in regards to voters being particularly informed/uninformed about Obama. You don't have to think he did well in the debate to support him, or to have supported him for the past four years.
Remember, our political system isn't very honest with people in general. I wouldn't put it past most Obama supporters to support him without having an understanding of what exactly he's been doing. They don't have to think Republicans are evil to believe Obama is a better choice. That doesn't mean they understand the candidates' policy implications.
Is that what Andrew Sullivan looks like? Good God what punchable hipster beardo douche.
Am I a bad person for wondering if Obama fluffing cult members commiting mass suicide in the event of an Obama loss would be a good thing?
I thought gay men were all supposed to be stylish and good looking. Wow does he kill that stereotype.
You've never heard of Bruce Vilanch?
And that furry fellow who won the first Survivor, what was his name, Richard Hatch (not the BSG-TOS actor). Let's see, Boy George is quite corpulent these days, and still quite the freak show.
That's just on TV. Just like how most of the hot girls on American TV are actually Canadian.
I'm afraid Cobie Smulders started to look like crap over the previous few seasons of How I Met Your Mother. Not that I watch it (just between you and me so the other guys don't make fun of me, not anymore is more like it; tired of watching Ted fuck with women's hearts -- make your damn choice already, you son of a bitch leading half of Manhattan on).
And by on HIMYM, I mean on that show. She looks decent here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3vZsta0TBU
But working on HIMYM is probably a fucking drag. She likely drinks all night and smokes cigarettes to cope with the dullness of it all. Hence she looks haggardly on that show.
Somebody told me they watch HIMYM the other day and I accidentally but quite sincerely laughed at them.
I felt good, but kinda bad too.
no, you did the right thing. My excuse is, well sense it is going to be on the main set anyway . . .
I've watched most of HIMYM on reruns, and one thing that's stood out is how shallow the characters are throughout the whole series. Not just Barney, who's supposed to be that way by design, but the rest of the cast, too. These are grown adults in their late 20s-late 30s who seem to be stuck in the emotional state that exists between high school graduation and sophomore year of college for most people.
I thought gay men were all supposed to be stylish and good looking. Wow does he kill that stereotype.
the Bears.
And just because it should never be forgotten. Lets not forget Sullivan got busted for pot, yet unlike every other alien somehow managed not to get deported for the crime. I am sure his constant shilling for the Obama administration had nothing to do with it.
OT: Here are some polling numbers from last month I just saw. Approval numbers for KY Senators.
With the exception of women (which is still very close), Rand gets better approval ratings than McConnell with EVERYONE. In some cases, it isnt close.
Look at the difference amongst Tea Partiers, for one.
The link is to nothing.
...because the paper has a retarded URL. This one seems to work, though.
This is astounding.
When President Barack Obama stepped off the stage in Denver last week the 60 million Americans watching the debate against Mitt Romney already knew it had been a disaster for him.
But what nobody knew, until now, was that Obama believed he had actually won.
In an extraordinary insight into the events leading up to the 90 minute showdown which changed the face of the election, a Democrat close to the Obama campaign today reveals that the President also did not take his debate preparation seriously, ignored the advice of senior aides and ignored one-liners that had been prepared to wound Romney.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....aides.html
Isn't this the part of the movie where a bunch of wise men go to the White House and tell Obama to resign for the good of the country?
ignored one-liners that had been prepared to wound Romney.
In that particular debate, one liners would not have worked. It was the most wonkish debate since Kennedy/Nixon, and if Obama blurted out the shuck and jive lines he does at his campaign rallies it would have looked like a desperate clutch move. I thought he didn't do so out of being at least astute enough to understand the conditions just did not favor it.
That is a good point. But I was more shocked by the fact that he could have thought he won the thing. How out of touch with reality must he have been to have thought that?
The guy is a narcissist high on the smell of own farts. It's not that surprising. But I would have thought he'd have known he'd lost big just by the look on Michelle's face afterwards.
Pssst...that's her happy face.
Isn't this the part of the movie where a bunch of wise men go to the White House and tell Obama to resign for the good of the country?
They should have done that a year ago. Even if he wins, it's a bad idea to have him on the ticker. Actually if he wins they are in a worse hole four years from now.
They won't admit it publicly, but I think more than a few Dems agree with you.
At the moment it becomes statistically impossible for you to have an overall better performance than the opposition party leader you replaced, that is the moment that internecine party warfare should be deployed to get rid of you. To the democrats shame, it did not happen here.
And have Crazy Joe become the president? Yeah, while that would provide some of the greatest political comedy ever, that's a pretty horrible idea.
you can't fix arrogance like that in 4 weeks. Not after a career of loving the smell of your own dumps.
No you can't. And even if you could, when your supporters are dead enders like Tony, who would do it?
Rose-colored glasses spin:
Obama supporters have been knocked out of complacency. Obama has lowered expectations for the second debate quite a lot. The polls now are reflecting the post-debate moment, but more recent data within them show things settling back, possibly because of good jobs numbers.
And sorry John, Ryan is going to make a fool of himself. Even with lowered expectations I would not be surprised at all if Mitt wins every debate. But Ryan is very green and, more importantly, believes a bunch of bullshit nobody supports.
And sorry John, Ryan is going to make a fool of himself.
Against Joe Biden? The dumbest man ever to hold national office? Comedy gold Tony. Comedy gold.
It is nice that you are finally admitting, four years to late, that maybe Obama just isn't very smart.
How long before you turn on him to try and keep his defeat from being about liberalism?
I realize you can't tell the difference between Joe Biden's gaffe-proneness and the true idiocy of someone like Sarah Palin... no you actually think Sarah Palin is a serious, brilliant person. I think that makes you the idiot.
Nevertheless Biden is a very good debater. There's no evidence for Paul Ryan either way, but he's just objectively not as practiced at this sort of thing, plus he's got to defend either a bunch of psychotic right-wing dogma or navigate Mitt's endless flipflops in a way that doesn't seem ridiculous. He's got a tall order and my hunch is he's not experienced or bright enough to fill it.
And I wouldn't be chest thumping about deaths of political worldviews considering the conservative standard-bearer is now Mitt Fucking Romney. If Obama loses all liberalism will need to do is wait a while for the next inevitable Republican recession and say "See, we told you so."
You are killing me Tony. Please stop it before I hurt myself laughing.
I understand most liberals are dumb. So I honestly do grade Biden on a curve. You just cant' expect any liberal politician to have much above an average level of intelligence. But Biden even fails on the curve.
FTFY. You're welcome.
The other thing is that I don't think Biden can go all attack dog on Ryan either, which is what everyone was calling for after Obama wimped out...
One of the things you heard people criticize Obama on was hi demeanor. And if people weren't really that familiar with Romney before the debate, this may really be the first time they've ever heard of Ryan.
And Ryan is baby-faced! If Biden goes all attack dog on Ryan, it's gonna be Mr. Ugly trying to jump on Baby Face Ryan--and there ain't no way those soccer moms that have just started warming up to Romney are gonna think highly of that.
If Ryan's smart, he'll let Biden do all the attacking, and he'll just answer all sweet and nice. Firm but polite!
It's the ol' Ali rope-a-dope strategy. Let Biden punch himself into exhaustion. Every time he gets ugly about Ryan, Romney inches a little higher in the polls.
Actually, I was thinking about that watching some Obama TV ads lately. They seem to have gone really negative since the debate, and I think that's the wrong strategy for them. Women did not like Obama's demeanor during the debate--and Obama baring his sharp teeth at them in his ads isn't about to make them snuggle up to Obama either.
I just don't think the Obama campaign can conceive of the idea that women would be put off by Obama's demeanor. so they're going full bore in the wrong direction!
LOL
Think about it Ken. Tony is reduced to claiming Joe Biden is going to save Obama.
Biden is a millstone around Obama's neck.
And the funny thing is? There ain't no way Biden's gonna get any support to run for president after Obama loses either.
Obama should have dropped Biden a year ago. Biden should have announced that he was stepping down to spend more time with his horrible family. Obama should have announced that Hillary was his running mate. But it's too late now.
For one night on television, all eyes will be focused on the face of the Obama Administration, and that face will be Biden's ugly mug?!
LOL
Even the Democrats I know can't believe Obama didn't drop Biden last year.
"Think about it Ken. Tony is reduced to claiming Joe Biden is going to save Obama."
Tony's basically in a personality cult surrounding Obama.
I defy Tony to name an issue he disagrees with Obama on, or name an issue that if Obama flipped on that would cause Tony to vote for someone else.
The Democratic Party is a personality cult, and Tony is an excellent example.
I disagree with Obama on a lot of things. I hate his healthcare law as policy, though I realize it was probably the best he could get with the votes he had. Drug war, war on terror stuff, his scary everpresent propensity to give Republicans everything they wanted five years ago and call it a compromise.
Any of that enough for me to vote for Mitt Romney? Of course not, since I disagree with everything on the Republican platform. And I don't believe in more than two choices in presidential elections.
Effectively Tony there is nothing Obama could do that would cause you not to support him.
That is called a cult of personality dip shit.
No it's called we have an insane anti-intellectual quasi-fascist kleptocratic party as one of our only two choices.
True, T o n y. And we also have the Republicans, so we're well and truly fucked.
"I hate his healthcare law as policy, though I realize it was probably the best he could get with the votes he had. Drug war, war on terror stuff, his scary everpresent propensity to give Republicans everything they wanted five years ago and call it a compromise."
So, you disagree with Obama when he supports the Republicans? That's hilarious.
Tell me, Tony, have you ever considered voting for the Greens? You know, there are other options, just none of them that involve Obama. ...but I guess that's a deal breaker for you, isn't it?
I would love a reformed electoral system in this country where minor parties could get electoral traction and policy leverage. We just don't have that system.
The votes he had? You mean when his party held both houses and the vote was along straight party lines?
Examples?
Specifics?
Such as?
If Tony w/spaces weren't a sockpuppet, he could easily be repurposed as a punching bag.
"If Ryan's smart, he'll let Biden do all the attacking, and he'll just answer all sweet and nice. Firm but polite!
It's the ol' Ali rope-a-dope strategy. Let Biden punch himself into exhaustion. Every time he gets ugly about Ryan, Romney inches a little higher in the polls."
And it's not like Biden can play any roll other than the attack dog on TV either!
He's too ugly to play sweet.
I'm not so sure on this one. Unfortunately for Biden, he plays sweet but dumb and clumsy. If he tries that in a debate though, as the incumbent he'll get ripped to shreds.
Against Joe Biden? The dumbest man ever to hold national office?
I like Biden now. He says the actual truth about the left wing crap that is going on.
"We need to spend more to get out of debt? Yes that is what i am saying"
Fucking perfect.
Plus that whole backstab thing he did to Obama over gay marriage....
It may have appeared like a stupid Biden blunder...but it makes me wonder if it was not planned by him.
If it was then I got to give the guy some credit. Going against Obama as his VP on principle is pretty friggin awesome if you ask me.
Re: Tony,
You mean you think they're not being complacent now?
*cough* Big Bird! *cough* *cough* Mitt's a liar! *cough*
So you find confort in the idea that he cannot do worse?
Sorry, comfort.
Ryan has reportedly been touring the country with his wonky charts persuading voters about entitlement reform. And it's working.
So no, Tony, you're just wrong. Ryan is not green. In fact, he's an experienced debater, he's very persuasive, and he knows the numbers. He's managed to persuade many Democrats in Congress on his Medicare plan (little known fact), so I think he's capable of persuading the average voter. He's going to beat the shit out of Biden.
the onion covered this in August. http://www.theonion.com/articl.....-do,29160/
+1
I thought they did satire, not mind-reading and fortune-telling.
The thing i have noticed is that Ryan looks like nearly every comic book version of a villain US president that has seen print.
The only exception is when they simply use Nixon or Reagan like they did in Watchman, Electra Assassin mini-series or in the Dark Knight Returns.
Really? I think he looks more like Superman or Spiderman, personally.
You're right. His resemblance to Nicholas Cage is eerie.
OT -
So regulation raises prices and deregulation lowers them? That's crazy-talk!
Re: Tony,
You mean you think they're not being complacent now?
*cough* Big Bird! *cough*
*cough* Mitt's a liar! *cough*
So you find comfort in the idea that he cannot do worse?
Tony will find comfort where he can.
I know that I'm going to watch the second debate. I missed the first one. Sounds like it was really entertaining.
Whatever I think of Romney, watching Obama be humiliated is something I can enjoy.
Seriously, were it not for blogs that reference Sully, would anyone know who the guy is?
I wouldn't.