Mitt Romney

State-by-State Study Predicts Romney Win

Analysis system has correctly predicted each winner since 1980.

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An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the winner this year.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president's re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.

The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.

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  1. Hmm – Intrade gamblers put Obama’s chances at 57%. Not being a gambler there, I think about $1.1 million traded on this in the last 4 days, or about $8.6 million/month. Could Obama be buying these contracts to keep up the appearance he’s a favorite?

    If so, one could place bets on Romney and make a lot of money at Obama’s expense, and drain his campaign cash (if he or his supporters are doing this). One doesn’t even need Romney to win to profit: one only needs Romney’s chances to improve by about 0.1%, at which point one can sell for a profit.

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