Campaigns/Elections

Ron Paul and Delegates: No One Knows

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It should be remembered that all discussions of total delegates counts floating around for the GOP race need to recognize that when it comes to the non-binding caucus states of Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, Wyoming, and Washington, with a total of at least 197 delegates, that no one knows yet how the delegates will be allocated.

Ron Paul fans making skylarking guesses based on their assumptions of their success in getting Paulites selected as delegates to county, district, and later state conventions guess that Paul may already have 143 in the bag. Again, no one knows, and if Gingrich and/or Santorum are no longer candidates come convention time (today's results will help shape that), that leaves many more in play.

But delegate estimates floating around are just that, and in most cases their methods of estimation aren't clear. No one knows yet. For what it's worth, the site I've found that seems most in-the-weeds knowledgeable about this stuff is Greenpapers.

For much more about Ron Paul, buy my forthcoming book Ron Paul's Revolution early and often.

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  1. I pointed this out yesterday, less than four minutes after your post.

  2. What will be a better result for Paul? If Gingrich and Santorum both drop out, or if they both stay in til the bitter end?

    1. The results of the Virginia primary might be the best answer for that question.

    2. Joe—I am open to argument, but I can’t see how having them around does him any good. It just divides the vote and delegate allocation.

      1. Well my thought is they keep the establishment vote divided. Paul, unfortunately, hasn’t made any major gains in support since Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Huntsman dropped out. Like Applederry said, Virginia may tell us what Paul’s numbers would look like in a head-to-head contest with Romney.

      2. Oh, and their staying in greatly increases the chances of a brokered convention, which is where Paul’s supporters have the best chance to pull shenanigans.

        1. Yes, that is the line that Paul people have fallen back on, that robbing Romney of a majority going in could be good. Maybe. I literally cannot imagine the result of a brokered convention being good for Paul, though.

          1. Maybe, but it would be good for entertainment, at least.

        2. Our shenanigans are cheeky and fun….

  3. Great post up until the last paragraph.

    1. Ayyyyy Ted, a writer’s gotta eat…

  4. Voted for Congressman Paul in VA this morning. I was late, about 9:30. I was the 16th person to vote. Really low turnout. My wife voted at around 11. She was the 24th person.

    1. Same here. Correct me if I’m wrong, but low turnout favors Romney because it means the not-Romney vote is small…

      1. Unless the Romney voters assumed he’s essentially unopposed and don’t bother.

    2. My wife and I were 10 and 11 at 8:00 this morning — both Paul

  5. The really good thing, if you believe in the Max Pain scenario like I do, is that every one of these caucus states has the potential to be a knock-down drag-out hellshow like Nevada was in 2008.

    The Paul people may be “skylarking” as you say, but one thing is indisputable: lots of people will be showing up at state-level conventions looking to steal delegates for Paul, and looking to rewrite convention rules to steal even more delegates for Paul. And the “regular” GOP people aren’t going to let that happen.

    I predict 5-7 “My Lai” conventions where the establishment GOP people destroy the village to save it from infiltrators.

    1. I’m starting to think that destroying the Republican party is the last, best hope for liberty. This would be a step in the right direction.

      Hopefully this will be a three way race to the bitter end and your 5-7 “My Lai” state conventions will culminate with a bitter, brokered national convention.

    2. I think more libertarians should go to at least one state level Republican convention. At the very least , it’ll permanently kill the idea that they’re some vast well-organized conspiracy.

      1. Absolutely not a matter of conspiracy – it is tribalism. Neither Romney nor Paul are members of the tribe. Watch the VA turnout, the majority of the tribe won’t vote because any Romney stance is unreliable and every Paul stance scares the bejeezus out of them. WTF good is govt if you can’t use it against people you don’t like?

  6. People need to calm down about the delegate count at this point in the process, take a deep breath and realize that I plan to seize all the delegates for myself.

    1. lol… share the wealth my friend!

      1. Oh, Fist.

  7. Dream on.

  8. It’s how I get bait.QBStimPL4

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