The Long Race Ahead

Tampa, Fla. – If you do the math you know pretty quickly we are in for a long race.

The delegate count is as follows:

• Mitt Romney 87
  

• Newt Gingrich 26
• Rick Santorum 14
• Ron Paul 4
• Jon Huntsman 2
• Rick Perry 2

Add all those up and you get a total of 135 delegates out of a possible 1,144 awarded after four contests. That's around 5 percent.  Florida, with its winner-take-all system, is an outlier when it comes to most primary contests before April, because the vast majority of the races before then award their delegates in some proportional manner. Some of the races that are coming up are more complicated as their elections and caucuses are only the first step in selecting delegates for the convention in August. The races do not revert to winner-take-all until much later in the race, the biggest prize among those later states is California with 172 delegates at stake.

The states that award their delegates in proportional manner are good for every candidate not named Mitt Romney. The states with a complex delegate selection process, particularly the ones where the delegates can be what is known as unbound, are good for Ron Paul. The legions of Paul supporters across the country have been organizing in these states since 2008, often independent of the national Paul campaign. Plus, Paul's supporters have been down this road before and they are no longer rookies when it comes to the delegate selection process.

Even though the road ahead is complicated for all the candidates, this doesn't mean Romney's win in Florida should be tossed out. His win here was a very impressive display of organizational prowess. His victory here should instill confidence in the national Republicans that support him about their chances here in Florida and nationally. Florida is a vast and complicated state requiring an immense undertaking that few campaigns can successfully handle. Only Romney, and to a lesser extent Paul, are equipped to handle what is now a national race because they have had national organizations in place since 2007. Tomorrow, for example, the candidates will be spread across three time zones and three states. Candidates can no longer focus with laser-like precision on some county in Iowa or a precinct in New Hampshire.  

This race is far from over. 

CORRECTION: This post originally stated 12% of the delegates have been awarded. The figure is actually closer to 5%. - GQ

Comments

["Furious" Styles]

I'm officially not caring anymore. I'm voting LP in November. In the meantime, WarGames is on. Ally Sheedy's bosoms, people. They aren't aging with dignity.

[Timon19]

Dibs on "Ally Sheedy's Bosoms" as a band name.

["Furious" Styles]

Goddamn, this movie is too good. This, the John Carpenter/Kurt Russell collection, and Repo Man, holy fuck.

[lily]

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[Just Dropping By]

Now I'm trying to think of another good early 1980s actress to pair with a WarGames-era Ally Sheedy.

[jacob]

Leslie Easterbrook

[M]

In Ron Paul's "victory" speech tonight he threatened to start wildfires through arson all over the nation.

We told you this anti-government Tea Party mob was going to continue to be violent.

[Joe Wilson]

You lie!

[Tman]

Sorry Garret, it's over.

It's douchebag vs. shit sandwich this year. Again, like every year.

[PaxRomana]

I mean, you know, you could vote for Gary Johnson (or the LP nominee). The LP candidate won't win, but neither will you if you vote for Romney or President Obama.

[Tman]

Either way = lose.

I probably will vote for GJ, but it's about as irrelevant as possible.

The GOP could not have picked a finer successor to the McCain mantle than Mittens.

I look forward to Mittens setting back the ideas behind free markets and free people another good decade or so, regardless of the outcome.

Good times.

[JW]

Good work, America. You consistently vote for self-destruction.

I'd tell you to get fucked, but you're about to get that regardless.

[Matt Tanous]

But remember, it's not rape if (most of) you vote for it.

[Alack]

Gang rape: Four out of five people love it!

[Aresen]

...the biggest prize among those later states is California with 172 delegates at stake.

California is so Blue that it is off into the ultraviolet. There is not a chance that its electoral votes will go Red. So why does it get more than 14% of the delegates for the GOP convention? California has just over 12% of the US population, so it isn't a proportional system.

["Furious" Styles]

California Republicans will go for Romney. Romney was like an east coast Arnie.

[protefeed]

From the internets:

"While growth in the Latino population has helped make California a reliably Democratic state today, this was not always the case. In fact, from 1952 through 1988, Republicans won every presidential election except the landslide loss of Barry Goldwater in 1964."

Trends remain the same -- until they don't. A Republican who is good on immigration could win California.

[Sy]

Paul would be an idiot to not hone in his immigration stance here.

[protefeed]

Paul sucks on immigration issues. Plus, the Democratic Latinos who turned California Deep Blue aren't going to be showing up at the primaries to vote for Republicans.

[true traditionalist]

"A Republican who is good on immigration could win California."

Bullsh*t. A Republican who stresses the difference between legal and illegal immigration (I am assuming proto means "open borders" when he writes "good on immigration"), hammers home the Democrat hostility toward traditional values and religion and emphasizes the importance of the rule of law in the difference between Mexico and the U.S. could still win.

Californians care as much about libertarian ideals like open borders as much as they care about legalizing pot - not all that much. Legal Hispanic voters don't subscribe to all the libertarian b.s. and they won't vote for Democrat lite.

[Matt Tanous]

What? There's a difference between the Rule of Law and legislated tyranny. To quote tradition set forth by St. Augustine, an unjust law is no law at all - and if anything can be said about our current immigration racket, it is that it is unjust.

[Fluffy]

Legal Hispanic voters listen to the GOP rage about illegal immigration and hear "Argh Snarl We Hate Hispanics!!!"

They hear it because that's what it actually is and they aren't deaf.

[curiousgeorge]

As Joe points out below, there are actually 2,286 delegates that other number is the amount needed to win.

California in fact only has ~7.5% of the possible delegates.

[dbcooper]

LOL TSA:

http://www.schneier.com/blog/a.....he_mo.html

[dbcooper]

To wit:

TSA screener finds two pipes in passenger's bags.

Screener determines that they're not a threat.

Screener confiscates them anyway, because of their "material and appearance."

Because they're not actually a threat, screener leaves them at the checkpoint.

Everyone forgets about them.

Six hours later, the next shift of TSA screeners notices the pipes and -- not being able to explain how they got there and, presumably, because of their "material and appearance" -- calls the police bomb squad to remove the pipes.

TSA does not evacuate the airport, or even close the checkpoint, because -- well, we don't know why.

[Janet Napolitano]

The system worked.

[bombastic]

Pipes (the non-smoking kind) are pretty damn suspicious in passenger luggage. Seems like a terrorist test of security.

[Ted S.]

I can only imagine the trouble poor Gheorge Zamfir has when flying.

[TSA Agent]

"Zamfir"? Please step over here.

[Brian]

That happended at the Clevand Airport 2 years ago but it was with a test pipe bomb (used for training puposes) that somehow fell out of someones bag. The agent on that shift were all fired. The bad part was they just ran away and did not let all the contractors know.

[abceme]

Support our heroes who serving our nation. Support our troops that safeguard our safety. A good place tailor-made for personnel in uniform?uniformedkiss*C0*M. It brings together those working in professions such as the armed forces, police, navy, security, medical, ambulance, prison, air crew and fire fighters, for friendship, love, romance, marriage and even more.

[Joe M]

Add all those up and you get a total of 135 delegates out of a possible 1,144 awarded after four contests. That's around 12 percent.

Actually, it's 1,144 needed to win. The total number of delegates is twice that, so we're only 6% of the way in.

[protefeed]

It seems to be based quite heavily on Republican electoral success in previous elections. Texas, for example, has almost as many delegates as New York and Illinois COMBINED.

explanation here

[Matt Tanous]

And the numbers for the delegates, at least according to CNN, are different:

Romney 84
Gingrich 27
Paul 10
Santorum 8

[juris imprudent]

so we're only 6% of the way in.

Which must mean, what, another 317 debates?

[curiousgeorge]

If we're going to have this many debates, I wish they would just devote each one to a particular issue.

Having the candidates talk at each other about 35 different things over the course of 2 hours is especially pointless when you know they're going to get together in a week and do it again.

[au contraire]

Having the candidates talk at each other about 35 different things over the course of 2 hours is especially pointless when you know they're going to get together in a week and do it again.

Those "pointless" debates have revealed that Bachmann is a talking point spewer without substance and that Perry lacked the poise to compete for the Presidency so they really aren't all that pointless, although they may be tedious to wonks.

[curiousgeorge]

Some of us didn't need a debate to figure either of those things out.

Also, debates with more focused topics would have still allowed us to discover those things, probably even sooner.

[Joe M]

There are only four more debates scheduled. No one planned on things going much past South Carolina, since that state usually seals the deal and everything else is just a formality.

[A Serious Man]

I would just like to see a Paul/Romney debate without Gingrich and Santorum.

[Bill]

If/when Santorum (or Gingrich?) drop out and they are down to 3 in the debates, they won't be able to ignore Paul as successfully, will they?

[Jumbie]

They'll be able to ignore Paul MOST successfully because Mittens will just back out and refuse to debate.

There're already reports of Mitten's campaign wanting to get away from debates even now.

[Joe M]

Also, I'd like to point out that the WSJ delegate totals aren't really accurate. It's more likely Paul will get at least seven delegates in Iowa, bringing his current total to the double digits.

[Apatheist]

I just went and looked at it and they are even more bullshit than ignoring how delegates are actually chosen. They gave Paul 0 delegates in Iowa. Even using a rough math proportional allocation he would have about the same as Santorum and Romney. I'd like to see how they came up with giving him none.

[Rather]

Easy:

Media + We don't want Ron Paul = 0 delegates

[Rather]

+bingo!

[Bill]

Some AP writer in the paper today went on and on about how there is nothing important happening in the next 2-3 weeks as far as the primaries. Gee, let's just write off 6-8 states that Paul might do better in and focus on the first four. Iowa, S. Carolina are also small states. Aside from being first, why should they be that much more important than the six coming up?

[Matt Tanous]

Media + Don't want Ron Paul = Duh!

[A Serious Man]

It will be interesting to see how Paul does in Nevada and Maine. Strong showings there should effectively bury the Gingrich and Santorum campaigns.

[Ha! Ha! Ha!]

The blind devotion of Ron Paul groupies rivals the mother of one of the Bernhard Goetz victims who declared that her son 'only axed to borrow five dollas'.

[Bee Tagger]

Do you write ads for Newt Gingrich?

[Tulpa]

Sorry, it's over. The lead Romney has is pretty significant. Something BIG would have to change to give one of the others a chance.

Romney has momentum, he has a well-financed campaign, and he has a decent organization. There's really nothing Gingrich or Santorum have going for them at this point. Heck, they're not even on the ballot in some key states.

Paul has decent money (though not Romney's level) and very good organization and enthusiastic supporters, but unfortunately most of the GOP base despises his foreign policy and drug war viewpoints.

The states that award their delegates in proportional manner are good for every candidate not named Mitt Romney.

Um, what? That's so mistaken I had to double check to make sure I'd read it right. Winner take all states favor the people TRAILING in the race, because they need to gain delegates fast without the current leader gaining any. Proportional delegate allotment means smaller differences in delegates awarded which makes it much harder to shrink a huge lead.

[curiousgeorge]

Not if your only shot at winning is a long nomination process or a brokered convention.

[Tulpa]

RS is out of money and peaked with a 30 vote victory in a state he'd campaigned in for 6 months. He's not benefitting from a long campaign.

NG is also out of money, though he has (for now) a casino sugar daddy helping out. He has one victory, in a neighboring state to his home, and one second place finish, also neighboring his home. His other showings have been 4th place. Oh, and a growing segment of the GOP despises him for his leftist attacks on Romney. He's not going to do well outside the South and maybe not even there. Again, a long campaign doesn't help him.

Paul can stay in it for the long haul, but the other candidates' delegates will team up against him rather than make anything beyond a token concession in a brokered convention.

[mad libertarian guy]

Though I wouldn't argue that Paul isn't running to win, he's a realist and knows that he likely isn't going to win.

He's running for reason other than simply winning. Whether he has a chance or not, he needs to take it to the convention with all his chips on the table.

There is no incentive for him to run 3rd party. There is still hope that Rand might have a chance to be president one day. If paul runs 3rd party, that chance is eviscerated.

[jacob]

There is definitely no incentive for him to run 3rd party, but the threat of a 3rd party run can be quite influential for him. While I don't expect to see him in the Oval Office in my lifetime (or his), it's a plausible scenario that he is given a cabinet post in a Romney administration in exchange for dropping out and, at the very least, not endorsing anyone.

I don't think RP would ever drop out and then endorse Romney or Obama.

[mad libertarian guy]

So Romney winning all of the votes in a state is better for trailing nominees than Romney winning 40% of the delegates with the loser(s) taking some lesser yet greater than zero number of delegates?

You're fucking delusional dude.

[Tulpa]

I didn't say that.

Gingrich/Santorum/Paul need to start beating Mitt if they hope to close the lead. Every time Mitt wins, he extends his lead (proportional or otherwise). If Mitt wins most of the remaining primaries with 40% he wins the nomination going away.

And (obviously) winner take all favors the winner. So in the contests where one of the trailing candidates manages to beat Mitt, it's better for the NotMitt to have it be winner take all.

Sort of like a football team ahead by 20 points with 10 minutes left will gladly allow the opponent to spend 7 minutes on a drive to score a touchdown.

[Matt Tanous]

Obviously they need to beat Mitt. But Mitt doesn't have a lead of 500 delegates here. Over Paul, for instance, he has a lead of 74 delegates. Were he to compete well against Romney in the February proportional contests, and even win a couple, the momentum would lead to victories in winner-take-all contests later. It's a long shot, but still possible due to the proportional system in the early states.

For instance, were he to keep the gap relatively close through the proportional primaries (like 100 delegates or less) a win in California in June (or a selection of other winner-take-all states near the end) could put him ahead. His relative success in states like Maine, Nevada, etc. in 2008 could help him do this.

To be clear, this is a very long shot - but as I see it, if this doesn't happen, Mittens will be the nominee anyway.

"If Mitt wins most of the remaining primaries with 40% he wins the nomination going away."

Well, duh. Thank you, John Madden. "Usually the team that scores the most points wins the game."

[Tulpa]

Were he to compete well against Romney in the February proportional contests, and even win a couple, the momentum would lead to victories in winner-take-all contests later.

That's not happening without a BIG change to the dynamics of the race. Paul isn't going to beat Romney anywhere. They have roughly the same level of money and organization. Paul has an enthusiasm advantage but that's dwarfed by the fact that most GOP voters HATE HIM.

[Fluffy]

It doesn't matter if Romney keeps leading if he doesn't get enough delegates to get nominated on the first ballot.

That's the whole point.

They aren't playing football. The spread actually matters. There's a big difference between winning 55 to 10 and winning 45 to 20 if you needed 50 to get the nomination.

[Tulpa]

If Romney has 45% of the delegates, what scenario do you see happening where someone else gets the nomination? Unless all the other candidates unite behind another nominee (extremely unlikely), you're going to need to peel delegates away from Mitt to give anyone else a shot.

[yonemoto]

I would love to see Romney get overconfident, essentially quit campaigning, and have ron paul come from behind as most of the republicans quit showing up at the polls (under the assumption that Romney is the nominee).

[mICHAEL]

If Gary Johnson cared a rat's rancid turd about promoting the values he purports to uphold he'd be bailing this race entirely right this instant and begging all of his followers to back Paul.

[Michael]

Fuck!

[American Voter]

Who?

[curiousgeorge]

Yes, because clearly his high poll numbers suggest his backing of Paul would be influential to the point of changing the race.

I think RP and GJ are great, but don't be delusional in thinking that either of them is on the cusp of breaking through to the point that followers need only rally around one candidate.

[Rev. Blue Moon]

Michael, if you care about humanity, please kill yourself.

KK, RBM.

[Mr. FIFY]

BTW, don't know if anyone's commented on the Chris Christie "Numbnutsgate" scandal, but hats off to him for putting that whiny fucktard in his place.

[Tulpa]

Newt cut in front of him at the Sizzler buffet once.

Once.

[Mr. FIFY]

Yeah, yeah, fat jokes. Har.

[Rev. Blue Moon]

Chris Christie's the shit, dude. If he became a libertarian, I would probably let him have a go 'round with my wife.

[dunphy]

nice swat story... with medicinal mj goodness!!!

ROY, Wash. -- A wanted 50-year-old man was fatally shot by Pierce County sheriff's SWAT team after he opened fire at SWAT team members late Tuesday afternoon.

Pierce County sheriff's spokesman Ed Troyer said the SWAT team was serving a high-risk warrant at a home in the 2500 block of Highway 702 South when the gunfight began.

"Today we were coming over because he threatened to kill neighbors, he threatened to kill deputies and landlords and judges and a lot of different people," Troyer said. "So we got a warrant for him because we thought he was a danger to other people."

The man came outside with a Russian assault fire and began firing rounds at officers and the team's air support, according to Troyer.

"One of our deputies fired a round - one round - and hit him," Troyer said. "He went down from that round and dropped the gun and we were able to get him secured."

No SWAT team members were injured and the man was pronounced dead at the scene.

The gunfire caught the attention of neighbor Brandon Dearinger.

"I was like, 'That's no duck hunter.' That's when I knew it was a high-powered full rifle and it was going 'pop-pop-pop,'" he said. "I was ducking myself because you never know, especially when the suspect's firing in the air, you never know where a bullet's going to land."

The man had shot at neighbors earlier in the day, Troyer said, adding the he is known to have a history of violence.

Troyer said the man had mental health issues and had been making death threats against the Office of Homeland Security, the US Attorney General's Office and other officials.

He had recently been involuntarily committed and had his guns taken away, but Troyer said he was able to re-arm himself with a Russian assault weapon.

The man had recently told neighbors he was going to create the biggest medicinal marijuana farm in the region and nobody was going to stop him, Troyer said.

[Bingo]

I'm really drunk and pretty much stopped giving a fuck etc. after SC.

Basically, the libertarian movement is definitively a philosophical movement now, not a political movement. Can we please stop playing the compromise game? And can you dumbasses finally accept anarchism since democratic (and democratic-republican) rule will inevitably result in a welfare-warfare state?

My cynicism is the only thing that keeps me alive. Cynicism and boobs. And beer. And boobs.

In summary: Fuck off, slaver.

[dunphy]

cynicism, boobs, and beer is a potent combo for survival

[Old Soldier]

"Playing the compromise game"? Libertarians compete with each other on their ideological purity and lack of compromise. GJ couldn't wait to skip from the Republican race to the Libertarian Party where he can preach to the converted.

[Brian]

Actually I just read the other day there could be a legal suit that Florida should not be winner take all and be proportional.

[paulbot]

you sure about that delegate count? rp has to have more between ia and nh

[Johann Romas]

lol, thosue crooked bought and paid for politicians crack me up man.

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