Health Care: Endgame


Will it pass? Will it fail? I'd bet on the former, but with just a few hours to go before the final vote, even Democrats can't seem to agree on whether or not they have the support they need to pass a health reform bill:

Even on Sunday morning, the vote was clearly too close to call. Rep. John Larson, the chairman of the Democratic caucus, told ABC's "This Week" program that the votes were in hand. "We have the votes now — as we speak," he said. But at the same time, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the deputy Democratic House whip, told "Fox News Sunday" that the Democrats "don't have a hard 216 right now."

Intrade is currently putting the chances of passage at 84 percent, which, if anything, strikes me as too low: The sense I'm getting is that, once Democratic leadership is within two or three votes, Pelosi will effectively be able to will the final votes into existence. But the way things are shaking out, we may not actually know until the vote is taken.