Campaigns/Elections

Get Ready For Election 2010!

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C'mon, election 2009 is so yesterday! Congressional Quarterly points us to 10 highly vulnerable congressional candidates for next year. (Not too late to enter these races yourself if you are so inclined!)

These likely defeats are mostly for sitting Dems, and are a necessary reaction in a sense to how good a year for them 2008 was. The logic is simple:

…to build the big majority that they currently enjoy, the Democrats had to push into some strongly Republican territory. And just as Bush played a big role in the Democratic sweeps of the past two cycles, you can expect that President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi will play starring roles in TV attack ads next fall targeting vulnerable Democrats.

Of the nine Democrats on this list, six represent districts that voted for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) over Obama for president in 2008. Freshman Reps. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) and Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) each represents a district that favored McCain by a margin of 26 points.

The other three most vulnerable Democrats are from districts that swung to Obama but favored Bush at the top of the GOP ticket in 2004.

If, as Republicans argue, 2010 will be a more favorable year for their party, several at-risk Democrats will have their tenures cut short. Even if the Democrats regain some momentum, it wouldn't be surprising if some of these Members get sent packing because history is not on their side: The party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm elections.

NEXT: "The public option is displacing private insurance."

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  1. What’s not to love? BTW, when MN first pass seatbelt laws, they were a secondary (non-stopable) violation with the assurance from the State (to allay well voiced concerns) that they would never become a stopable offence. Can I sue the state for lying?

    Minnesota law enforcers are making full use of a new seat belt law, issuing 10,081 citations during a special crackdown in October.

    The Department of Public Safety said today that almost 200 of the citations were for child safety seat violations. The stepped-up enforcement campaign ran from Oct. 9 to Oct. 22.

    A 5-month-old Minnesota law allows police to pull over motorists if they spot an unbuckled driver or passenger. Before that, they had to identify another traffic violation before making the stop.

    A seat belt violation can cost more than $100 when surcharges are added in.

    The department says there are 30 fewer traffic deaths at this point in 2009 than there were in 2008. Officials documented fewer deaths of unbuckled motorists.

    http://www.twincities.com/news…..ck_check=1

  2. Wake me when it’s November 2010.

  3. Congressional Democrats cannot be taking much comfort from their party’s win in the NY-23 special election. Bill Owens managed to defeat a Republican who had dropped out of the race and who had been a weak candidate to begin with, and the candidate of a third party that almost never wins without a major party fusion. And even then by only three percentage point.

    The opposition to Rep. Owens will not be divided in the 2010 midterm election. Next year Republican primary voters in that area will almost surely nominate Doug Hoffman or somebody very much like him. As the Republican-conservative candidate Hoffman will be more experienced and a better communicator from months of radio talk show appearances.

    And Owens will be running in a red district in a three-legged race with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and all the political baggage of her Congress: The Stimulus boondoggle, Cap-and-trade, nationalized health care, card-check and the whole parade of Democratic horribles.

    The GOP comeback in the Northeast has begun.

    1. Er, right. The Democrats carry a district they haven’t carried since the Civil War and it’s sign of a Republican resurgence. Sure, George.

      1. That would be a good point if it wasn’t based on a falsehood.

        NY23 was in Democrat hands from 1979 until 1993, as well as most of the rest of the 20th century.

        link

  4. Fuck even numbers, yo.

  5. This whole elction thing just isn’t working for me anymore. I think we need a new method for picking the yahoos we send to DC. I’m thinking a “Dancing With The Stars” type of format or maybe just maybe a death race runoff where the surviving candidate gets to not only live but go to DC. Talk about your term limits

    1. What’s wrong with yahoos? Geez, you want smart capable people in Washington, pushin’ and pullin’ on the levers of immense power? Sounds dangerous to me.

      No, we need a legal maximum of, say, 90 on the IQ of candidates for the House and Senate. That will greatly limit the damage they can do.

      I mean, really, if every Senator sounded like Joe Biden when he opens his mouth, a prating jackass, I doubt they’d have any real power at all.

      1. No, we need a legal maximum of, say, 90 on the IQ of candidates for the House and Senate.

        Why impose a legal maximum? It seems to me that this criteria is already being met.

      2. I mean, really, if every Senator sounded like Joe Biden when he opens his mouth, a prating jackass, I doubt they’d have any real power at all.

        They do, and, unfortunately, they do.

    2. I’ve said it for years and nobody ever listens. Maybe I need to clone LoneWhacko’s blog, or whatever it is. Then we’d get some action.

      For true reform, we do away with elections altogether. From now on, political contests are fought with guns. The survivor gets to hold the seat until his assassination. Wait’ll you hear the new policy on political assassinations!

      In this way, only the truly dedicated would ever dream of taking the job and so, since they’ve publicly identified themselves as just what they are, there’s a mechanism in place to get rid of them.

  6. Maybe it will be the libertarian’s year in 2010.

    Just kidding. We will have “conservatives” republicans run for office(and most likely win)under platforms of economic liberties(good) while promoting social conservative, traditional family values (bad)

    1. But overall, that’s good, for 2 reasons:

      (1) Of those issues that are on the agenda, i.e. marginal, i.e. cutting edge, i.e. within the realm of political change in the foreseeable future, the economic ones are more significant and of greater range, while the social ones are mostly symbolic and hemmed in by litigation.

      (2) The traditionalists even just on “family values” issues are about as good as their “liberal” opposition overall. That is, about as much traditionalism is pro-liberty as is anti-liberty, which is the same as can be said of “social liberals”.

  7. We should make the candidates play Azad from Player of Games. They’d be so busy figuring out how to play that they’d never have time for anything else.

    1. Episiarch, I’d kick their asses.

  8. I fearlessly predict all Republican candidates will campaign paying solemn homage to the concepts of fiscal responsibility and limited government.

    And those winning their elections will resort to business as usual within 30 seconds of arriving in Washington D.C.

    1. And the voting public will subsequently resolve to ‘do things differently next time,’ and then forget 30 seconds later.

    2. To be fair the fall from the balanced budget of Newt’s congress to Bush’s super duper spend thrift budgets was longer then 30 seconds.

      We might get a few “good” years before they start trying to save Shivo-vegetables again.

      1. Yes. The two remaining years Obama stays in the White House.

  9. “The party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm elections.”

    Except for two out of the three most recent midterm elections. The Democrats gained seats in 1998 and the GOP gained seats in 2002.

  10. The next time they give you all that civic bullshit about voting, keep in mind that Hitler was elected in a full, free democratic election

    1. At least as free an election as “elected President appoints a Czar w/o Senate confirmation needed”.

  11. Its interesting if you click on the map to the right and look at some specific districts.

    My home district, Ohio-16, is rated as “Likely Democratic” which I find amazingly hard to believe. Before Boccieri won late time, Regula (R) had the district since 1972, and the Rep before him was in office since 1950, so the last time before ’08 that a D won in that district was 1948. This district should be considered a toss-up at best for the Dems.

    I’d be interested to know if anyone else notices a district as being way off like this.

  12. I live in Bobby Bright’s district. He is a blue dog dem. He is a local country boy that folks like a lot. Raised on a cotton farm, croppin on shares with his 13? siblings. His opponent last year was running on the “time to return christian values to D.C.” stump. He was weak and a nice mix of creepy and douchy. Moderates R’s will vote for Bright again unless the R’s run someone very strong and likeable. They haven’t come up with anyone yet. But if the dem voters stay home, Bright may be in trouble. I am confidant he will keep his seat.

    1. Martha Roby is a GOP candidate against Bobby Bright.
      What do you think of her, brotherben?

  13. The Dems get 49% in a Republican registration majority district, after all the shit-storm about Obamacare.
    All it will take to minimize Democrat gains in 2010 will be media manufacturing positive spin about a slight uptick in employment and some “progress” in Afghanistan. Then all congressional districts are re-districted in time for 2012, Hispanic voting growth turns several Western red states more purple, and the country will be facing another forty years of Democratic rule. Thank you very much, Dubya, 9-11 terrorists, and dirtbag Republican pols.

    1. I mean “Democrat losses.”

  14. I’m voting straight GOP for Congress in 2010. Gridlock is the only hope right now.

  15. 2010 is right around the corner but i think that Tuesday’s election needs to be taken in context before we presume that the dems in deep sh*t in VA, NJ, and elsewhere. This blog from Georgetown MA students explains the significance of tuesday for 2010. http://gnovisjournal.org/blog/…..ction-2009

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