C'mon, election 2009 is so yesterday! Congressional Quarterly points us to 10 highly vulnerable congressional candidates for next year. (Not too late to enter these races yourself if you are so inclined!)
These likely defeats are mostly for sitting Dems, and are a necessary reaction in a sense to how good a year for them 2008 was. The logic is simple:
…to build the big majority that they currently enjoy, the Democrats had to push into some strongly Republican territory. And just as Bush played a big role in the Democratic sweeps of the past two cycles, you can expect that President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi will play starring roles in TV attack ads next fall targeting vulnerable Democrats.
Of the nine Democrats on this list, six represent districts that voted for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) over Obama for president in 2008. Freshman Reps. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) and Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) each represents a district that favored McCain by a margin of 26 points.
The other three most vulnerable Democrats are from districts that swung to Obama but favored Bush at the top of the GOP ticket in 2004.
If, as Republicans argue, 2010 will be a more favorable year for their party, several at-risk Democrats will have their tenures cut short. Even if the Democrats regain some momentum, it wouldn't be surprising if some of these Members get sent packing because history is not on their side: The party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm elections.