The Leather Couch, Kitchen Table, Bed, Television Stand, China Cabinet, Coffee Table, Grill, and Patio Set Subsidy

The $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers that was included in the stimulus package approved by Congress last February is scheduled to expire in late November. The National Association of Realtors wants to renew it, enlarge it (to $15,000), and extend it to all buyers. According to The New York Times, the group "estimates that about 350,000 sales this year would not have happened without the lure of the tax credit."

Would not have happened? At all? That interpretation—which suggests that someone who is not in the market for a house can be convinced to put down, say, $50,000 to $100,000 and borrow hundreds of thousands more by the promise of getting $8,000 back—strains credulity, to put it kindly. It's somewhat more plausible that the tax credit, like the cash-for-clunkers subsidies, might encourage some people who are already in the market to buy sooner rather than later, but that doesn't mean it will cause a net increase in sales. A couple highlighted by the Times paid $171,000 for a two-bedroom condominium in Dallas last spring, then used their $8,000 refund to buy furniture. "We did exactly what the government wanted us to do," says the wife. "We stimulated the economy."