The Libertarians' Bogart Moment

…and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes hits 4 percent, after an "awful" auction of $19 billion in new government debt. There are many claims about why demand is declining for 10-year bonds backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. Optimists say it indicates impending inflation and thus higher interest rates (and in today's Wall Street Journal, non-optimist Arthur Laffer says inflation is a-comin'). An even more pollyanish view is that investors are finding oodles of neat stuff to put their wealth into as the economy resurrects.

One thing is certain: Big buyers are losing interest in U.S. government debt. There is a clear upside to this, because of the distance between promised largesse and the issuing of debt to pay for it. As Katherine Mangu-Ward noted earlier, the never-popular American Reinvestment and Recovery Act is less popular than ever. Very little of the ARRA's funding has actually been committed. In April the GAO estimated that only $49 billion of $787 billion in stimulus funding was committed to be paid by September 30. A Pro Publica article today tracks the relative chump change that has been paid for transportation, supposedly a cornerstone of the stimulus package.

This means theoretically it's still possible to walk back the stimulus payout, if you can make a political case for it. One way is to use the kind of magic talk politicians love: For every dollar we don't borrow at 4 percent now, we save almost $1.50 over ten years!

For libertarians, the Bogart Moment is an even bolder argument. I've always hated the Bogart Moment, that never-convincing scene where Humphrey Bogart or George Clooney or Ice Cube or Han Solo decides to give up pursuing his own interest and jumps in with the team for the big win.

But in this case, the Bogart Moment could yield wonderful rhetorical results: We don't want to kibosh the stimulus out of buy-gold megalomania or toe-tapping hatred of age-of-consent laws or nostalgia for the days of the Articles of Confederation. This is just patriotism: We just don't want our government bankrupt itself. We're here to help.

Here, by the way, is what happens when you ignore the Bogart Moment, you nattering popinjays:

Comments

We don't want to kibosh the stimulus out of buy-gold megalomania or toe-tapping hatred of age-of-consent laws or nostalgia for the days of the Articles of Confederation.

This is Reason.We want to stop the stimulus for Gay Marriage and Medical Marijuana.

[John Thacker]

The explanations generally agree that people who have money to set aside for 10 years are finding better places than Treasuries. The arguments are over whether those betters places are fun new investments, or countries with less debt, or gold, commodities, and mattresses.

[Megan Fox]

Can you just take out all of the white trash, hillbilly, anti-gay, super bible-beating people in Middle America?' Oh,and the stimulus too!

[alan]

But being Clark Gable comes naturally to us.

[alan]

Megan Fox | June 10, 2009, 5:15pm | #
Can you just take out all of the white trash, hillbilly, anti-gay, super bible-beating people in Middle America?' Oh,and the stimulus too!

Hey, baby. [sniff, sniff] is that Oleoresin Capsicum you're carrying? That's my favorite.

[John Thacker]

Of course, the fact that the stock market is down on the weak Treasury sales (and gold, oil, etc. is up) suggests that perhaps the 10 year note yields aren't up because people are marching into equities.

[Seward]

Tim,

I wish you all the luck in the world, however...

Even if they did put the kibosh on the stimulus that wouldn't put much of a dent in future spending (if it looks anything what Obama is promising).

[Gilbert Martin]

The Russian government announced it was going to lighten up on buying U.S. government bonds.

That helped fuel the rate rise today - although by no means the decisive factor.

[R C Dean]

We don't want to kibosh the stimulus out of buy-gold megalomania

Megalomania? I don't get it.

[Invisible Finger]

What's YOUR broker suggesting you do?

Mine isn't telling me to buy long-term treasuries, he's suggesting mid-term commodities. If the economy was strengthening as the nitwit from the New Yorker suggests, we'd see a bump in volumes but that's not happening.

[squarooticus]

Where's domoarrigato to revisit his contentions from last year that (a) a major recession in the US would be worse for China than for the US and (b) that there's no way our primary creditors would stop buying our debt?

[phalkor]

I massively enjoyed this article. We can go back? Can we? Really? Stopping unchecked stimulus is like a magical dream to me.

I'm out of my space though. What is the Bogart Moment? That clip was awesome but it didn't help me get the Bogart Moment. Why are Bogart and Moment capitalized? I've ever used the term bogart in a different setting and it was sometimes called 'microphoning'. The Bogart Moment sure must be something great for libertarians or call me a nattering popinjay.

[Hazel Meade]

I'm guessing the Bogart Moment refers to the moment in Casablanca where Rick gives up Ilse to Victor Laszlo for the sake of the cause.

[Hazel Meade]

Either that or he thinks we should "bogart" the debt, by refusing to pass any of our money along to the US government through Treasury bonds.

[The Bearded Hobbit]

Hazel,

Sounds right to me.

However, I'm betrayed by my age when I say that, to me, "bogart" is something that is done to a "joint".

... "just sayin'" Hobbit

[The Bearded Hobbit]

Hazel,

Ooops, obviously my reply was directed at your first comment. Your second and my first passed in the etho-sphere.

... Hobbit

[Marc]

However, I'm betrayed by my age when I say that, to me, "bogart" is something that is done to a "joint".

Doing that to a "joint" is not the done thing.

[phalkor]

'microphoning' is when one inadvertently bogarts a 'joint' by means of oration. it's an all too common phenomena.

[Tim Cavanaugh]

Every time I think I've made everything clear, it turns out nobody can understand a damn thing I'm saying. Hazel Meade, is right: The Bogart Moment is when you make a big deal about putting aside your own interests for the sake of the Greater Good.

It's quite popular in politics, with the slight variation that it usually involves congratulating yourself for putting aside your own principles as well as your own interest: Witness G.W. Bush's bragging that he had to forget about his alleged free-market beliefs to save the team.

The idea is that libertarians can claim a piece of Bogart nobility by pretending to do an intervention to prevent the government from destroying itself, even though the correct Leninist position for an enemy of the government would be to allow the disaster to happen in all its ghastliness.

Maybe the whole thing was a stretch.

[Tony]

Pass it already.

[phalkor]

that never-convincing scene where Humphrey Bogart or George Clooney or Ice Cube or Han Solo decides to give up pursuing his own interest and jumps in with the team for the big win

I see.

The problem was with these examples. I don't they painted the idea you meant to convey. Does bogart moment necessarily imply insincerity? I mean, Han Solo is a freakin' hero.

[SIV]

Seemed perfectly clear to me Tim.The snot-nosed punks probably never actually watched Casablanca, the picture being in B&W after all.

[Tucci]

"This is just patriotism: We just don't want our government [to] bankrupt itself. We're here to help."

Like hell. Bring it down.

Do not confuse this government with this nation. Patriotism is love of country, not loyalty to the "prehensile gentry" who make up our usurpatory and malfeasant-in-office native criminal class.

Or in the case of Barry Soetoro, would it be better to say "Our Kenyan-born criminal class" instead?

[moptop]

"Can you just take out all of the white trash, hillbilly, anti-gay, super bible-beating people in Middle America?' Oh,and the stimulus too!"

Won't we need the stimulus money for the death camps? Sentiments like this are the exact reason that government power should always be as restricted as possible.

[DaveinPhoenix]

Impending inflation ? Hello ? Anyone who shops at a grocery store knows that inflation is already here. $5 for a box of cereal ? $4 for a bag of chips ? A "good" deal on chicken is twice as high as it was 5 years ago. Gas has skyrocketed in the past month or so. And it makes me wonder: ground-up by-products of animals sold as hotdogs at $4 a package ? Why ?

[R C Dean]

Mine isn't telling me to buy long-term treasuries, he's suggesting mid-term commodities.

I like your broker's thinking. My only reservation about commodities in general is that they are cyclical with the global economy, and I'm not sure we're going to see a recovery in the global economy all that soon, although in the mid-term, maybe.

I'm going more precious metals because I think the US dollar is going to collapse this year or early next, before (and probably inhibiting) a global recovery. Still, I wish I had gone more into oil while it was still really cheap.

[Cabeza de Vaca]

Sirocco is a better example than Casablanca for the Bogart moment. After getting caught smuggling guns for the resistance forces opposing french rule over Syria. Bogart's charcater unwisely decides to do the "right" thing & take the french police to the rebels hideout. He does this knowing he is going to be killed by the rebels. His other choice was to leave Syria with his hot girlfriend.

[The Wine Commonsewer (TWC)]

Inflation has always been a lurker but it has become apparent that prices are rising. $25.00 for breakfast with The Boy at IHOP? WTF?