Republican Convention 2008

Boing!

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If the cliche that "the guy leading in the polls on Labor Day wins" holds out, say hello to President Obama. USA Today/Gallup:

In the head-to-head race between the candidates, Obama now leads 50 percent-43 percent among registered voters. In the USA TODAY poll taken Aug. 21-23, the Illinois senator held a four-point lead.

CBS News:

Obama and his running mate Joe Biden now lead McCain and Sarah Palin 48 percent to 40 percent.

CNN sees the race moving from a 47/47 tie to a functional tie with Obama up one. All the polls bring good news for Democrats: Obama way up on "who can handle the economy," tied on Iraq, down in unexperienced, leading McCain on strong leader. I don't see the Palin pick changing that for McCain. If the argument for Palin is that she is as or a little more experienced than Obama, that doesn't change the fact that she was the first major pick McCain has made. Given the same choice, Obama went for a stolid 36-year senator over wet-behind-the-ears types like the governor of Virginia.

I saw the new polls while having [well, not] lunch [but whatever 3:34 p.m. Thai food could be designated] with some Colorado McCain delegates. They shrugged it off.

"The debates are going to matter," delegate Summer Vanderbilt said. "What's going to happen when the Democrats find their candidate can't speak without a teleprompter?"

Vanderbilt told me she'd gotten Ron Paul supporters' DVDs in the mail, encouraging her to switch her vote in the convention hall. "I'm a very conservative Republican," she said. "Not a libertarian."

I do think the polls underrate how much happier the base is, post-Palin.

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  1. This is just too good.

    Bill Bennett just blew up on CNN concerning the Palin Babygate story.

    What did this country do before blowhards like him defined our morality for us?

    Get thee back to the casino, Bill!

  2. There’s a babygate now?

  3. Good reporting. You somehow neglect Rasmussen, the last few elections’ most accurate pollster:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

    which shows essentially identical numbers pre-and post convention.

    Also, you fail to note, in spite of following the election day to day, the gallup tracking poll that switched from registered voters to likely voters just before the Democratic convention, back to registered voters immediately after. It was well noted when the gallup poll suddenly showed a drop for Obama pre-convention. They switch it back to registered – pow instant bounce.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/109954/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-6Point-Lead-49-43.aspx

    Keep up the cheerleading.

  4. Bill Bennett just blew up on CNN concerning the Palin Babygate story.

    Perhaps because ill individuals such as yourself and formerly “live and let live” lefties are showing themselves to be such raging hypocrites?

    Who’dathunk that there’d be a whole host of right-on “progressive” Volken telling Sarah Palin to get back in the kitchen while simultaneously reveling in a personal affair like it’s their own fucking episode of Desperate Housewives.

    Jesus Christ on a Cracker.

  5. AGO, yeah ditto. The leftie hypocrisy is getting damned old, and it’s only been two days since they started their barefoot/pregnant meme. They sure love to dish out accusations of hypocrisy at the tap of a foot, but couldn’t see it on their own side if it were a rotten septic tank that just collapsed underneath them.

  6. Now that we know the tramp daughter is pregnant the only question is whether the father is the brother or the grandfather.McSame will pay for his slap in the face to all real women.

  7. Keep in mind that there have traditionally been convention bounced and VP bounces. The rising poll numbers for Obama reflect the net of his convention bounce plus his BP bounce minus McCain’s VP bounce.

    leading McCain on strong leader

    If Obama keeps that in place, ballgame.

    JDM,

    The Gallup poll shows Obama one point ahead for several days pre-convention, and 6-8 points ahead since the convention. As you say, both sets of numbers are RVs, so that’s apples-to-apples.

  8. Perhaps because ill individuals such as yourself and formerly “live and let live” lefties are showing themselves to be such raging hypocrites?

    Yeah, that’s it. They guy with the “Book of Virtues” and huge gambling debts just can’t tolerate hypocrisy.

    Poor wingnuts, those mean ol’ lefties just won’t…you know…stop them from freaking out on television.

  9. Palin is a trainwreck. She is entertaining, though.

  10. Yep, nothing but good old-fashioned live-and-let-live libertarians in this comment thread.

    It is also my belief that Matt Welch should be fired.

  11. I’d keep an eye on the polls over the next few days. My suspicion is that Obama got a modest bounce, but it’s been undone by McCain’s pick of Palin. I think in a week McCain might have a slight lead, if the GOP convention goes well.

  12. Diane as an Obama supporter let me be the first to say: please shut the fuck up, leave here and don’t come back.

  13. The rising poll numbers for Obama reflect the net of his convention bounce plus his BP bounce minus McCain’s VP bounce.

    And looks like McCain is about to have his opportunity to generate a convention bounce dampened down . . .

  14. “The debates are going to matter,” delegate Summer Vanderbilt said. “What’s going to happen when the Democrats find their candidate can’t speak without a teleprompter?”

    You see a lot of this wistful thinking. The people engaging in it seem to have forgotten the primary campaign.

    Over the course of the 137 debates the Democrats had, Obama improved from also-ran status to basically tying Clinton. It was only the very last debate, which was something like a month and a half after all the other debates, where he performed poorly.

    McCain’s not so hot as a speaker, even under the best of circumstances. Kerry’s performance in 2004 is thought to have moved the polls 2-4 points, and that was probably the biggest set of blowouts in the history of televised presidential debates. Maybe McCain can come out the better in a series of debates with Obama, but there is no way it is going to be as lopsided a set of victories as last time.

  15. The only debate I see McCain doing well in his the town hall debate.

  16. Is it just me, or are there so many “moving targets” ( Gustav,Palin,DNC bounce) , that the polls are actually irrelevant for a few more days?

  17. McCain debated the North Vietnamese for 5 1/2 years. In fact, he debated one guy right into drawing a cross on the ground, that’s how good he is! He was a POW doncha know?

  18. “The debates are going to matter,” delegate Summer Vanderbilt said. “What’s going to happen when the Democrats find their candidate can’t speak without a teleprompter?”

    Is this person delusional? Is Leiberman going to be there to help Obama sort out all the things he shouldn’t be expected to know in a post 911 world? If this represents the norm, then the Republicans are seriously underestimating their opponent.

  19. McCain will rid himself of this Palin baggage very soon. I don’t see this circus continuing for much longer. She will quietly step down to “tend to the family” and McCain will get another chance to actually make a sensible pick.

  20. He can’t dump her though. The base is in love with her. He is in quite a fix.

  21. Now that Obama has stooped so low as to attack Palin’s underage daughters via surrogates the Democrats might want to think of getting a new candidate for the top of the ticket.One with experience this time.

  22. Not that anyone cares about an anonymous random Internet loon corecting himself but

    the gallup tracking poll that switched from registered voters to likely voters just before the Democratic convention [then back to registered after]

    didn’t actually happen. The gallup tracking poll does show an Obama bounce as well. I blame misreporting by the realclearpolitics.com poll aggregating page. Which, I swear without proof, was putting an “LV” next to the gallup tracking poll for a week or so.

    I officially downgrade this offense from “fraudulent cheerleading” to “cheerleading”

    You win this round reason Democrats. Savor it well.

  23. “Diane” is a patent false-flag poster. And, based on looking at Daily Kos, ThinkProgress, and other leftwing sites, it appears that 90%+ of the posters are raising the issue in the context of pointing out the hypocrisy of rightwingers who would be ripping bloody chunks out of Obama and announcing that America was going to collapse as a new Sodom if he had a pregnant, unwed, teenage daughter.

  24. “live and let live”

    It should go without saying, but you can “let live” and yet mock, jeer, jest, parody, protest, shun and denounce.

  25. The real question is: what is happening in the battleground states? What 3 states will decide this election?
    In my mind: Ohio, Michigan, Colorado. I think PA will go to Obama.

  26. The Republicans can’t change the ticket now. That would be a disaster. “Republicans in Turmoil.” They’ve just got to make the best of it.

  27. Sean – add Virginia to that list.

    Michigan should go Democratic. Ohio (as always) will be too close to call…

  28. Hey Optimist-
    I wonder how the Palin choice will play out in these battleground states?

  29. Nevada has to go on the list. Michigan needs to come off. It’s a safe Democratic state.

  30. Florida is in play as well.

    The Palin pick might play well in CO. Too early to tell.

  31. The Palin pick will bomb pretty badly in Florida.

  32. Over the course of the 137 debates the Democrats had, Obama improved from also-ran status to basically tying Clinton.

    That wasn’t because of the debates…and he definitely wasn’t considered an “also ran” when the campaign began back in early 2007 — he was considered one of the main threats to HRC along with Edwards.

    Unless you want to acknowledge McCain’s rise from dead-in-the-water status in mid-2007 to party nominee as a product of his superior debate skills.

  33. BDB, oldsters love McCain.

  34. cuntivore –

    They hate Palin according to focus groups. Also, she was a Buchananite. The Jewish voters aren’t going to like that.

  35. North FLA should love Palin, excepting the Bolsheviks in Tallahassee.

    Palin wasn’t a Buchananite.

  36. I’m not so sure. Why couldn’t she just say that she doesn’t want her family subjected to such media scrutiny and she felt the need to bow out for their sake? Everyone wins. McCain generated some excitement in his base, grabbed some media attention, and can then move forward with a real choice. I see this is the only hope for my party.

  37. Dwayne, you poor soul. Maybe you need to find a new party.

    Besides, there aren’t any better choices, unless by some miracle McCain lights a spark in Colin Powell or something.

  38. She wasn’t a Buchananite BDB. You need to keep your Palin smears straight. The one for today is son Track impregnated Bristol and was sent to the Army. Sarah Palin then pretended to give birth to the baby. Get on the right page man!

  39. ABC News is now attacking Sarah Palin for her ties to third parties in Alaska. They’re focusing in on her “membership” in the Alaska Indepdence Party. But other blogs are mentioning her support from the Libertarian Party, as well.

    Watch for the liberal media to slam Palin for being a “libertarian” in the days to come.

  40. Not a Buchananite?

    Pat must be going senile.

  41. If he had picked Bobby Jindal he would be being lauded right now for his great judgement.

  42. No worries BDB. No, she wasn’t a Buchananite. She welcomed him to visit to her town while she was mayor and wore a campaign button. She later wrote a letter to the local paper explaining she wasn’t a supporter, she was just welcoming him. The records from the time indicate she was a Forbes supporter. There’s no evidence she ever volunteered or gave money to his campaigns except Pat’s say-so. And how would even remember some mayor from a tiny town in Alaska? (His sister and advisor Bay denies it.) Easy mistake to make man. Don’t trust content from Pat Buchanan or Florida Representative Wexler (who was also pushing this a couple of days ago.)

  43. “Now that we know the tramp daughter is pregnant the only question is whether the father is the brother or the grandfather.McSame will pay for his slap in the face to all real women.”

    Project much, Diane?

  44. “Also, she was a Buchananite.”

    That’s been debunked already.

  45. “Why couldn’t she just say that she doesn’t want her family subjected to such media scrutiny and she felt the need to bow out for their sake?”

    Because both she and McCain were aware of the “issue” before she was tapped. Also, it was no secret in her hometown.

  46. Meanwhile, Back at the World

    Dutch intel: US to strike Iran in coming weeks

    http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1220186494776&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

    Face it. Bush hasnothing to lose.

  47. Watch for the liberal media to slam Palin for being a “libertarian” in the days to come.

    That is the kind of smear that could make me vote Republican even with McCain on top of the ticket.*

    *I can vote or not for whoever the Fuck I want to including Obama. Doesn’t matter a damn bit as I live in GA and if this State doesn’t go McCain/Palin you can call it a DemocRAT landslide.

  48. I am gonna bust a gut!

    Episiarch | September 1, 2008, 7:25pm | #
    McCain debated the North Vietnamese for 5 1/2 years. In fact, he debated one guy right into drawing a cross on the ground, that’s how good he is!

    Speaking of busted, there was a photo of Palin sitting on a bed in a dorm room wearing a shirt that read “I may be broke, but I’m not flat busted!” Very cute.

  49. Jack wrote: “And, based on looking at Daily Kos, ThinkProgress, and other leftwing sites, it appears that 90%+ of the posters are raising the issue in the context of pointing out the hypocrisy of rightwingers who would be ripping bloody chunks out of Obama and announcing that America was going to collapse as a new Sodom if he had a pregnant, unwed, teenage daughter.”

    Personally, I don’t really care that she has a pregnant daughter.

    What got me about the ‘Trig-is-really-Bristol’s-baby’ story was not that it was Bristol’s baby, but the part where Bristol was taken out of school for ‘mono’ for 6 months like some kind of leper, then the baby was secretly adopted by the mother.

    That strikes me as the kind of shame-driven behavior that leads many girls to get abortions. Given that Palin is against abortion, you’d think she’d see that it would be a good idea to get rid of, and not indulge in, the kind of thing that creates demand for abortions in the first place.

    Admittedly, that’s quite a nuanced complaint.

  50. And hey, if the lying communist gig ever gets old, you can always go to work lopping people’s heads off!

  51. Jon H, that particular “nuanced complaint” has zero basis in fact. A sophisticated lie is still a lie.

    90%+ of the posters are raising the issue in the context of pointing out the hypocrisy of rightwingers who would be ripping bloody chunks out of Obama and announcing that America was going to collapse as a new Sodom if he had a pregnant, unwed, teenage daughter.

    There’s just no pleasing those people. If the right wing had denounced Palin over this, they would be painted as closed-minded zealots. If they ignore it and embrace her anyway, they’re hypocrites, because they’re acting inconsistent with some hypothetical about Obama.

  52. That is the kind of smear that could make me vote Republican even with McCain on top of the ticket

    Wow, you’re easy. I bet the GOP wishes other voters were as easily manuevered into the counting-ceiling-tiles position. (And that Palin’s daughter had been less so.)

    “live and let live” It should go without saying, but you can “let live” and yet mock, jeer, jest, parody, protest, shun and denounce.

    Um, not really. The “let live” in “live and let live” doesn’t mean simply “don’t murder,” it means something like “tolerate” or “allow to live in peace without moral badgering or condemnation.” The actions you list, especially jeering, protesting, denouncing and shunning (shunning? are you serious??), are the exact opposite of “live and let live.”

  53. There’s just no pleasing those people. If the right wing had denounced Palin over this, they would be painted as closed-minded zealots. If they ignore it and embrace her anyway, they’re hypocrites, because they’re acting inconsistent with some hypothetical about Obama.

    It’s not too hard to figure out: right-wing views on cultural issues are wrong, so when they live up to them they are wrong. If they decide not to live up to them in cases when it benefits them to ignore their own views, they are hypocrites. Thus, your conclusion that “there is no pleasing [their critics]” is not warranted. You leave out an obvious alternative: the critics would be “pleased” if these right-wing nutjobs gave up their rigid, close-minded moral positions.

  54. Ethan, the problem is that you have no evidence of how right-wingers would behave if Obama had an unmarried pregnant daughter. You’re just assuming.

    I’m all for pointing out hypocrisy when someone doesn’t practice what they actually preach. I just have a problem with accusing someone of hypocrisy for not practicing what you think they would preach in some hypothetical situation.

  55. This “hypocrisy” angle is simply a crude technique for lefties to bring up this story without appearing to violate their belief that unmarried pregnancy is A-OK. And even if that angle was true of a hypothetical right-winger, that doesn’t really hurt Palin, does it? And we all know that’s the goal here.

  56. the problem is that you have no evidence of how right-wingers would behave if Obama had an unmarried pregnant daughter. You’re just assuming.

    No, it’s a conclusion based on their past behavior and upon the general principle that political types will use anything against their opponents, particulary in a presidential race and particularly when doing so highlights the very differences they wish to illuminate between their world view and their opponent’s.

  57. This “hypocrisy” angle is simply a crude technique for lefties to bring up this story without appearing to violate their belief that unmarried pregnancy is A-OK. And even if that angle was true of a hypothetical right-winger, that doesn’t really hurt Palin, does it? And we all know that’s the goal here.

    You sure seem to be doing a lot of the mind-reading you claim is unwarranted when performed by others. I suppose there is a hypocrisy angle here, but I won’t bring it up as I know how much you hate it when people do that.

  58. If the cliche that “the guy leading in the polls on Labor Day wins” holds out, say hello to President Obama.

    Do the polls supporting this cliche include post-Labor Day conventions? It seems like the real data point might actually be – the guy leading after the convention bounces damp out wins the election.

    On babygate, I think this is another opportunity for error for the Dems. Anyone on the fence (hell, anyone with much in the way of human decency) is likely to be repelled by the Dem/media assault on a pregnant teenager, which is how this is going to come off.

    Out in the real world, lots of people know “good” families that have trouble with their kids. The real question isn’t, did your daughter get in trouble. The real question is, how did your family deal with it. All I see on this story is that the family is being very supportive, and the daughter plans to marry the father. Any grinding on this story is going to blow back.

    Obama understands this; that’s why his followers would be well advised to take his lead. I thought his response was very classy; reminding folks that his mother was eighteen when he was born.

  59. I don’t think so RC Dean. Most people who apply a moment of reflective thought to this place the blame on Palin not on the media for doing their job. She knew good and well her unwed 17-year-old child was pregnant and she knew it would have national spotlight if she accepted the VP nomination. The attack is not on her daughter but on the mother and her parenting/moralistic preaching/ and exploiting her family when it suits her. It’s about exposing the hypocrisy of the right who say one thing and do another.

    They say pro-life and then bomb the dickens out of other countries. They say “family values” but then Palin demonstrates her own household is out of order and out of control. They say Palin is such a saint for keeping the Down Syndrome baby and yet she abandons the 4-month old infant to go stomping around the country for her septuagenarian pimp. And if they win, she has relegated the baby to a nanny and sucking at the tit of the father’s breast for the next eight years. This is all about hypocrisy and character not Bristol getting knocked up for lord knows how long.

  60. Now that it is obvious that Palin will not deliver the Hilary vote she is already baggage. Her abuse of power at the gubenetorial level will haunt her and McSame.
    Her families lack of a moral compass will, like it or not, reflect upon her (Palin).

    I can’t wait til they roll out McSame for one of the debates when the questions are not pre-canned for the GOP so they can decide what McSame will say. He’s good at jokes off the cuff, but to speak intellegently, he’s a bit short (sic).

  61. yet she abandons the 4-month old infant to go stomping around the country for her septuagenarian pimp.

    I’ll agree 100% that Palin is yet another example of a righty blowhard hypocrite, but as a friend pointed out to me last night when I made the same argument about the kid, there’s no reason why her husband can’t take care of it. Leave her alone, she seems to be doing more than her fair share of sinking the GOP’s chances without our help.

  62. The media is waaay overblowing this issue, but is that surprising? It’s a presidential campaign, for crying out loud.

    Palin has no one to blame for the attention being drawn to Bristol but herself. She knows the price for presidential ambitions is the same level of scrutiny.

  63. McCain’s biggest problem going into the election was that the Republican base, especially the evangelicals, hates his guts. Now with the Palin pick and the Democrats obsession with the sex life of a 17 year old, the base feels that it is their God given duty to vote for McCain. McCain has totally solidified his base.

    The thing with Palin’s daughter is really gross. So what if Palin thinks teenagers shouldn’t have sex. Most people teenage daughters would agree. In addition, maybe the girl used contraceptives and they failed. Lots of people who support traditional sex ed and hand out condoms to their 14 year olds, daughter’s still get pregnant. Do we really want to go there? Is this girl supposed to tell the world how and why she had sex and what her contraceptive habits are in order to defend her mother against charges of hypocrisy? The whole thing is just gross.

    My favorite argument in this whole thing is the “Palin knew her daughter was pregnant and should not have accepted the VP spot because of it”. Why? Who the fuck cares if her daughter is or is not pregnant? All that argument is saying is that Palin should have known that old perverts like Andrew Sullivan and nutcases on Kos would as much as call her daughter a whore and drag her threw the mud and Palin is clearly responsible for their behavior.

    The upside of this is that the more people talk about this, the more the election becomes about the culture war and the less it is about things like the economy and foreign policy. The culture war is such a winning issue for the Dems? Strange times we live in.

  64. It’s not too hard to figure out: right-wing views on cultural issues are wrong, so when they live up to them they are wrong. If they decide not to live up to them in cases when it benefits them to ignore their own views, they are hypocrites. Thus, your conclusion that “there is no pleasing [their critics]” is not warranted. You leave out an obvious alternative: the critics would be “pleased” if these right-wing nutjobs gave up their rigid, close-minded moral positions.

    Bingo, brother. The only way to fight back those religious heathens against liberalism is to shout them down with their own hypocrisy. You see, irrational people have irrational ideals, e.g. of your mythical “Christ.” If you do not live up to that ideal, then you are a bad person under your own belief system. No belief system is correct, so only your own matters. Of course, yours is wrong if you can’t live up to it, and in addition you’re a bad person for not doing so. QED.

  65. “If you do not live up to that ideal, then you are a bad person under your own belief system. No ”

    If you are going to rip on a religion at least understand what it is. The fundemental tenent of Christianity is that everyone fails to live up to the ideal because they are born with sin. We are all sinners and need God’s forgivness through Christ. You are presenting a straw man.

  66. I’d say that a candidate who is still solidifying his base on September 2 is in a bit of a rough spot.

  67. It is a long time until election Joe and there hasn’t been a Republican Convention yet. I seem to remember every Democratic candidate in my life time being up big around this time. The media chocking on Obama’s cock tends to pay off more in August and less in October and November.

  68. John: No, I’m imitating a straw man.

    Be wewy, wewy quiet. I’m hunting Leftists. If you keep interjecting with facts, you’re either going to drive them away or make it hard to trap them.

  69. It is almost exactly two months until the election, John.

    The Republican convention began yesterday, though admittedly, it was easy to miss.

    You seem to remember wrong, because Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, and Carter were losing at this point in the race. Hence, the Labor Day headline.

  70. My apologies rationalist.

    Joe,

    Most people who are not movement convservatives, Kos nutcases or old perverts like Sullivan, start paying attention about the time of the convention and make up their minds based on the speeches at the convention and the debates. Time will tell. McCain may give a lousy speech on Thursday. Palin really may be Dan Quayle. Or McCain may give a great speech and Palin may be anything but Dan Quayle.

    The Palin pick definitely took care of McCain’s problems with his base. Can he make the sell with everyone else? I don’t know. But, the election is decided in September and October, unless it is 1984 or 1964 and a complete blowout.

  71. I’d say that a candidate who is still solidifying his base on September 2 is in a bit of a rough spot.

    Given Obama’s persistent difficulties with blue collar Dems, I would have to agree.

    This election is turning out to be more interesting in some ways than I thought it would. The depressing thing is that nearly everyone seems to agree that suburban women hold the balance of power.

  72. Most people who apply a moment of reflective thought to this place the blame on Palin not on the media for doing their job.

    Its a little odd for Dems to be blaming the parent of a pregnant teenager, no? And for them to think they can bait Repubs/social conservatives into doing so shows a pretty shocking disregard for the little people in flyover country, who, as I noted, aren’t as stupid as apparatchiks like to think.

    She knew good and well her unwed 17-year-old child was pregnant and she knew it would have national spotlight if she accepted the VP nomination.

    Maybe it was naive of her not to forsee the kind of vicious attacks that the Dems have launched at her and her family, I’ll grant you that.

    The attack is not on her daughter but on the mother and her parenting/moralistic preaching/ and exploiting her family when it suits her.

    Well, show me a politican who doesn’t “exploit” their family. And point wasn’t that the attacks were on the daughter, but that they were going to come off that way to people. In any event, I think you’re going to have a hard time portraying Sarah Palin as “moralistic/preaching”, or getting anyone to believe she is a bad parent. Attempts to do so will blow back.

    It’s about exposing the hypocrisy of the right who say one thing and do another.

    How so? What has Sarah Palin said that has been contradicted by how she’s handled her daughter’s pregnancy?

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