If the cliche that "the guy leading in the polls on Labor Day wins" holds out, say hello to President Obama. USA Today/Gallup:

In the head-to-head race between the candidates, Obama now leads 50 percent-43 percent among registered voters. In the USA TODAY poll taken Aug. 21-23, the Illinois senator held a four-point lead.

CBS News:

Obama and his running mate Joe Biden now lead McCain and Sarah Palin 48 percent to 40 percent.

CNN sees the race moving from a 47/47 tie to a functional tie with Obama up one. All the polls bring good news for Democrats: Obama way up on "who can handle the economy," tied on Iraq, down in unexperienced, leading McCain on strong leader. I don't see the Palin pick changing that for McCain. If the argument for Palin is that she is as or a little more experienced than Obama, that doesn't change the fact that she was the first major pick McCain has made. Given the same choice, Obama went for a stolid 36-year senator over wet-behind-the-ears types like the governor of Virginia.

I saw the new polls while having [well, not] lunch [but whatever 3:34 p.m. Thai food could be designated] with some Colorado McCain delegates. They shrugged it off.

"The debates are going to matter," delegate Summer Vanderbilt said. "What's going to happen when the Democrats find their candidate can't speak without a teleprompter?"

Vanderbilt told me she'd gotten Ron Paul supporters' DVDs in the mail, encouraging her to switch her vote in the convention hall. "I'm a very conservative Republican," she said. "Not a libertarian."

I do think the polls underrate how much happier the base is, post-Palin.