Zogby Says It's Hillary in Penn by Ten

Today's Democratic primary in Pennsylvania is underway. Yesterday, pollster John Zogby released a survey showing that among likely primary voters in the Keystone State, Hillary Clinton was up 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent, over Barack Obama.

More here.

Over at Real Clear Politics, the average of polls has Clinton up by 6 percent:

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread RCP Average 04/17 - 04/21 - 49.3 43.3 Clinton +6.0 InsiderAdvantage 04/21 - 04/21 712 LV 49 42 Clinton +7.0 Zogby 04/20 - 04/21 675 LV 51 41 Clinton +10.0 Rasmussen 04/20 - 04/20 722 LV 49 44 Clinton +5.0 Suffolk 04/19 - 04/20 600 LV 52 42 Clinton +10.0 PPP (D) 04/19 - 04/20 2338 LV 46 49 Obama +3.0 Strategic Vision (R) 04/18 - 04/20 1200 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0 Quinnipiac 04/18 - 04/20 1027 LV 51 44 Clinton +7.0 SurveyUSA 04/18 - 04/20 710 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0 Mason-Dixon 04/17 - 04/18 625 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0 See All Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Polling Data

The cable show chatter over the past couple of weeks has been that Hillary needs a double-digit win to pull super delegates her way. Not sure how much that matters but there's this non-bombshell all over Fox News this A.M.: Michael Moore, the documentary filmmaker who is not liked by genre pioneer Frederick Wiseman, has endorsed Obama. 

Hit & Runners, do you care who wins Pennsylvania? Why or why not? In one sentence or less.

Update: Libertarian Democrat and reason contributor Terry Michael says no matter what happens today, it's over for Clinton. Read about it in the Wash Times:

A rush toward Mr. Obama will get underway in the early morning hours of April 23, before we elitist Democrats grab our caramel macchiattos at Starbucks. By the time we reach Whole Foods in the late afternoon of the day after, and before we can put those French lentils with baby carrots into the microwave, the march of super delegates toward ObamaLand will be viewable on our 47-inch flat panel displays, presented by the best political teams in the cable babbling cosmos.

More here.

Comments

[Eric Dondero]

News just breaking that a top Obama Aide equated "libertarians" to Terrorists in a recent interview. The Aide was trying to deflect criticisms over the Ayeres controversy, and said that Obama had "lots of friends" with far-out views, including libertarians like Judicial Expert Richard Epstein of the Univ. of Chicago.

Great. So now the Dems think we libertarians are "Terrorists" like the Wearther Undergound.

Wonder how this will effect us under an Obama administration?

[Eric Dondero]

Oops, sorry. National Review has the full story up on their site, in a David Frum column at In the Corner. http://www.nationalreview.com

[VM]

Ah, fascinating that this should, indeed, must, be raised in the interests of all, not just a mere some, for those are already standing up and awaiting counting, but all, decent, indecent, liberal, conservative, and I do mean all, good and not so good citizens of this commonwealth, in recognition of, homage to, and duty for democracy in the spirit of their forefathers will be taking notice and having opinions, many of whom will act on these opinions, although a great many others will eschew the chance, but the fact remains, that some will have different cares from others in this matter and affair of state and democracy.

[Cab]

Yes I care who wins Penn because if Hill wins by enough she really will have a decent argument in front of the credentials committee, which will make for a fascinating convention.

(Oddly worded, but I was only given one sentence...or less)

[Tommy_Grand]

Predict HRC by 9%

[Other Matt]

Great. So now the Dems think we libertarians are "Terrorists" like the Wearther Undergound.

Wonder how this will effect us under an Obama administration?

Given Obama's warm support for the Weather Undeground, if he equates libertarians to terrorists it will probably go well for us.

I don't particularly care who wins PA, either one sucks to me, but it's nice to see Obama's lack of substantive comments coming in to roost, though. Every time he says something concrete, as opposed to his typical evasive BS, it seems to come back in his face.

[herodotus]

"Hit & Runners, do you care who wins Pennsylvania? Why or why not? In one sentence or less."

No.

Because politics are boring.

[Flow]

Yes, keep it going, this is cheaper then porn.

[VM]

Cab - what's the problem with one sentence?

oh, and DUNDEROOOOO!

[Cab]

I saw your impressive one sentence after I posted mine. I didn't know one sentence could be so, uh, informative. I do now.

[Episiarch]

It would be groovy if Hillary wins because then we get a nasty convention; otherwise, I don't care--but on the other hand, if Obama beats her/comes close, will she actually bow out?

[Jose Ortega y Gasset]

After this many months of political bullshit, I can't muster an iota of emotion about anything related to the presidential race.

[roversaurus]

If Hillary does win the nomination I really hope Ron Paul takes the LP nomination and runs 3rd party.

I do care who wins. I prefer Obama.
I should prefer Hillary. If she wins we'll have
gridlock one day one. But I just can't bring
myself to like her.

[robc]

No.

[ed]

Well, if we ever needed a more depressing demonstration that the election is a horse race and treated as such, that graphic proves it.

[Guy Montag]

Hit & Runners, do you care who wins Pennsylvania? Why or why not? In one sentence or less.

Yes, because the crackdown on dog fighting has limited my entertainment options.

[John-David]

Thanks, Eric, for not bothering to link to the story, and then saying it was on the Corner (which it's not). Furthermore, both you and Frum are totally mischaracterizing what Sunstein said, which is par for the course for both Frum and you.

[John-David]

Link here.

Ayers is one of numerous people, in the Chicago area, whom Barack Obama has run across. Obama has much closer relationships with numerous conservatives on the University of Chicago faculty, many of whom have given money to Obama's campaign, and many of whom have talked to him at length and been at social occasions with him.

I know for a fact that Obama has actually played basketball with Richard Epstein, a libertarian on the law school faculty who has written some pretty controversial things on property rights and government regulation. I also know that Obama has had a number of conversations with former law school dean Daniel Fischel, a Reagan Republican who has written some pretty controversial things on corporations and government regulation.

Please go back to masturbating over Rudy, Eric.

[Jefferson]

If Hillary squeeks through with much arm twisting and dirty deals with superdelegates and turns off her base and McCain runs a grumpy centrist campaign that turns off the righty base then perhaps it could set the stage for a strong 3rd party showing from Paul if he goes LP or Barr or maybe even an historic 4 party clusterfrick with Bloomberg pulling from the left which could help undermine the dominance of the two-party system - something I would like to see - however, the thought that would make it more likely that we might see a Hillary presidency does get my panties in twist.

[Jerry]

Cass Sunstein: "I know for a fact that Obama has actually played basketball with Richard Epstein, a libertarian on the law school faculty who has written some pretty controversial things on property rights and government regulation."
Play a round of hoops, and next thing you know, libertarians are terrorists.

[Guy Montag]

Jerry,

If Mrs. Clinton is releasing that information it must be important.

[Mark Lerner]

Hey Nick,

Any chance you will open Reason Headquarters tonight so we can come over and watch the results?

[peachy]

If one were to draw up a list of people who might initiate a purge of libertarians, a UofC professor (or lecturer or whatever he's technically termed by the law school) would have to be in the bottom decile. Even by Donderoooo's standards, this is crap.

[Guy Montag]

ML,

Any chance you will open Reason Headquarters tonight so we can come over and watch the results?

I think they only do that on Libertarian Party National Convention night and hope they get a smaller crowd at the office than the folks in Denver get.

[sage]

Yes. Because I want to hear HRCs "bitter" concession speech.

[Other Matt]

Play a round of hoops, and next thing you know, libertarians are terrorists.

Always let the Wookie win?

[Warty]

Meh.

[joe]

Yes!

Donderrrrooooooooo is supporting McCane!

Hillary needed to put him away on Super Tuesday, and didn't. This is all just epilogue.

[Edward]

Whoever wins, Ron Paul will kick his or her ass in the general election.

[Episiarch]

Donderrrrooooooooo is supporting McCane[sic]!

He is? I refuse to go to his site so I can't tell.

I guess Obama really will be the next president.

[Guy Montag]

Some Hollywood woman, Nora Ephron, wrote in the Huffington Post recently that bigoted whie males will decide the election.

I guess she should know, since the movies made from her writing rarely contain any people of color, especially Black men.

We should look to the expert bigots for insight into these matters.

[Ron Bailey]

In re Zogby: He's the same pollster who predicted on election day that Kerry would win in Virginia over Bush in the 2004 presidential election.

[John]

The super delegates are just enjoying their power until it's clear that all the other super delegates are backing Obama, and then they all will rally behind him. An Obama victory in PA will hasten this, while a Clinton victory will prolong it. Don't expect Clinton to cede the primary until it is completely obvious to everyone else that she has lost all support and doesn't really have a choice.

[sage]

Whoever wins, Ron Paul will kick his or her ass in the general election.

Well it sure as hell won't be the $400 haircut. And it won't be you, even if you did decide to crawl out of your mom's basement.

[Creech]

Eric, you need to take a course in logic.
Hillary by ten (or nearly so) in Penna. Her win keeps the 3 ring circus entertainment going!

[B]

Yes, I care; I want Hillary to drop out so that I can avoid the swarm of campaigns and press in my state (NC) for the next two weeks.

[Josh]

From today's NYT:

Arla Hacker, 49, a bank teller, said she also liked Clinton because she had Hacker's economic interests at heart. "The people who are 18 and 20 years old don't know what it's like to sit in a gas line," she said.

Elect Hillary so that we can all get that valuable experience.

[Troy]

Yes. But only because of the potential entertainment value.

[tarran]

Don't care; regardless of who wins we are massively screwed.

[vanya]

before we elitist Democrats grab our caramel macchiattos at Starbucks. By the time we reach Whole Foods in the late afternoon of the day after, and before we can put those French lentils with baby carrots into the microwave,

Wait a second, or maybe I should say attendez un moment!, we elitists consider Starbucks a place where hoi corporate polloi and their administrative assistants rush before work, a place for people who don't know that ordering a "latte" without saying "caffe" means you're simply ordering milk. And Whole Foods? Please that corporate behemoth that has destroyed local organic chains from Boston to Bel-Air? And finally Mr. Michael is microwaving, microwaving!, his meal. C'est a pleurer, or as I used to say to my
Tibetan lama nge ta, khye-rang-gi ta le, che-ua du. My god, Mr. Michael, you sir are no elitist Democrat.

[J sub D]

Hit & Runners, do you care who wins Pennsylvania? Why or why not? In one sentence or less.

Yes, because I want Malificent Clinton to go away.

[robert]

Has anybody pointed out that the poll with the largest sample size, almost double the 2nd largest, has Obama ahead. I don't have any background on why the one would be an outlier, but the sample size column did catch my eye.

[J sub D]

Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 7:54am | #
Edward | April 22, 2008, 9:45am | #

This sums it my thoughts nicely.

[The Democratic Republican]

Actually, I do find the comments by Obama's pal offensive. Ayers shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence with legitimate, law-abiding scholars. Saying that Epstein writes or says controversial things is even worse when it's being said to mitigate the fact that that asshat Ayers actually WAS a terrorist and is saying things that are a hell of a lot worse than "controversial."

I wish you Obama apologists would wipe some of the magic stardust out of your eyes.

[Invisible Finger]

Democracy is the quintessential example of market failure.

[alan]

Invisible Finger | April 22, 2008, 10:45am | #
Democracy is the quintessential example of market failure.

Two truisms, two parties:

The ballot box is the ultimate form of mass pacification (as implied when the Bush administration speaks of bringing Democracy to the Middle East).

Mortality is the quintessential example of market failure (if you believe Democratic rhetoric concerning health care).

[J sub D]

Some government designed high density housing..

[J sub D]

Oops wrong thread.

[Cesar]

Come on, shes not getting out tonight.

She rallies and wins by double-digits, and this goes on until May 6th at the earliest, possibly all the way to mid-June. Its almost a certainty.

[RL]

Yes it matters.

If Hillary loses Pennsylvania, then her suffering is over. Why would any justice-loving person want her suffering to be over?

[Cesar]

If Hillary loses Pennsylvania, then her suffering is over. Why would any justice-loving person want her suffering to be over?

Because it would also end OUR suffering of having to see her and her lying husband in public life, and finally kill the Bush-Clinton-Bush mini dynasty once and for all.

[mx]

ZOGBY sucks. He not only predicted a Kerry win; he said Kerry would win SOUTH CAROLINA. In 2004. In deference to the national IQ, this dude should be deported.

[Robert]

From the current polls from Pa., what's the likely swing in pledged delegates? Everybody's speculating about the effect on the super delegates, but how about the "hard" count?

[Eric Dondero]

Sorry I didn't put the link up. Was on my way out the door to work. That's why I put the modifier "Just Breaking..."

I'll make sure to do it next time.

[Jose Ortega y Gasset]

If Hillary Clinton's plane falls out of the sky, I hope it lands on Eric Dondero. Is that so wrong?

[bookworm]

It's interesting that PPP shows Obama ahead by 3, but Zogby shows Hillary ahead by 10. I wonder why the difference.

[bookworm]

"From the current polls from Pa., what's the likely swing in pledged delegates? Everybody's speculating about the effect on the super delegates, but how about the "hard" count?"

I read an analysis on Hillaryproject.com that pointed out that even if Hillary were to win 60 to 40, she would only gain around 3 delegates on Obama because of the way the delegates are divided in the state.

[bookworm]

"Come on, shes not getting out tonight."

She has stated that she plans to continue after tonight, win or lose. She says she will stay in it to keep fighting to have the Michigan and Florida delegates seated.

[ChrisO]

Unless something crazy happens, I'm convinced that Hillary will take this all the way to the convention, whether or not she can realistically win. And given recent eruptions of foot-in-mouth disease by Obama, maybe that's the smart thing for her to do.

[Haywood Jablomi]

Top Ten Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race

I have noted a number of myths amongst the comments here as to why Hillary should stay in the race. Here are ten enduring, kudzu-like myths, with the debunking they sorely need.

Myth: This race is tied.

No, actually, it's not. Obama has the lead in number of states won, in pledged delegates and in overall delegates. Nothing will happen in the remaining primaries to substantially change that. As to the one thing Hillary does lead in, superdelegates, her quickly shrinking margin is among DNC personnel only. When you look at the elected superdelegates, Congressman, Senators and Governors (i.e. people who actually work with both Obama and Clinton) Obama leads there, too.

Myth: Okay, the popular vote is tied.

There are people who claim that because of the 3% separation, that Obama's lead in the popular vote is a "statistical tie." This is a myth because, when you can actually count things, there's no need of statistics and no such thing as a margin of error. The popular vote is not an estimate based on a sampling, like a poll. Like the general election, there are winners and losers and, so far, Obama is the winner.

Myth: Fine, but what if we count electoral votes? NOW Hillary is ahead!

Not so much. The proportions of electoral votes to population versus delegates to population are pretty comparable. So if you allocated electors proportionally in the same manner that you allocate delegates, Obama is still ahead. If you allocate them on a winner-take-all basis, then that would be the same as allocating the delegates on a winner-take-all basis, so why bring electors into it?

Myth: But if we did do it like the Electoral College, that proves Hillary is more electable than Obama, because of states like California.

This is perhaps the saddest little myth of all. It's ridiculous to suggest that Obama will lose New York and California to McCain because Clinton won them in the primaries. No, come November, those states will join with Obama's Illinois to provide 40% of the electors necessary for him to win.

Myth: Very well, then, Mr. Smarty-Math. But if we counted Michigan and Florida, THEN Hillary would be winning!

Nooo, she wouldn't. The margin would depend on how you allocate the delegates, but Obama would still be ahead. And he'd still be about 100,000 ahead in the popular vote, too, despite not even being on the ballot in Michigan. However, it would enhance Hillary's chances of catching up in the remaining races.

Myth: Ah HA! So Dean is keeping them out just to help Obama! And Obama is keeping them out.

That's two myths, but I'll treat it like one. The only people who can come up with a solution to this problem are the states themselves, to be presented to the Rules and Regulations Committee of the DNC for ratification. It was Rules and Regs, not Howard Dean, who ruled that Florida and Michigan were breaking the rules when they presented their original primary plans. If the two states cannot come up with a plan to reselect delegates, they can try to seat whatever delegates were chosen in the discounted primaries by appealing to the Democratic Convention's Credentialing Committee, which includes many members from Rules and Bylaws.

Myth: If they don't get seated until the convention but a nominee is selected before these poor people get counted then these states are disenfranchised.

There are two ways to debunk this myth: semantically and practically. The first is based on the word "disenfranchised:" these people have not been deprived of their right to vote. Through the actions of their states, their votes don't impact the outcome. Now, you may say that that is specious semantics (Myth: I do say that!) but practically speaking, this is the usual effect of the nominating process, anyway. All of the Republican primaries since McCain clinched the nomination have been meaningless, but those voters are not disenfranchised.

Florida and Michigan tried to become more relevant in the process by breaking the rules. They risked becoming irrelevant instead.

Myth: Well, I say they are disenfranchised, and Hillary Clinton is their champion.

Only when it suits her. Last fall, when the decision was first made to flush 100% of Michigan and Florida delegates, Clinton firmly ratified it. That was because the typical punishment of only 50% representation also kept the candidates from raising money in those states. Figuring that she would wrap up the nomination handily anyway, the clear front-runner agreed with all the other candidates - including Obama - to completely "disenfranchise" those two states.

Myth: Well, never mind 2007. She's doing more now to bring them in.

Not really. Recent stories in the St. Petersburg Times political blog said that 1) the Obama camp has reached out to the Florida Democratic party about a compromise and that 2) the Clinton camp will discuss nothing else but re-votes, which are legally, practically and politically dead.

Myth: Whatever! Hillary can still win! I know she can! She and her 37% positive rating will sweep through the remaining primaries and Michigan and Florida, winning 70% of everything and superdelegates will flock to her banner and Barack Obama will personally nominate her at the Convention and John McCain will give up and George Bush will even quit early so she can take over and... and... and... can I have a glass of water?

Yes, and you should lie down, too.

[B]

Holy cow, you better not tell Matt Welch that you wrote an article in the Wash. Times. It might cause him to let loose with a barrage of lame "Moonie" jokes similar to the ones he wrote in a piece about the Wash. Times on this site. Evidently religious bigotry is considerd hilarious amongst a certain subset of libertarians.