The Pennsylvania Primary Thread: Obamadammerung

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The longest and most agonizing gap between primaries ends at 8 p.m. Tonight, Pennsylvania gives a popular vote victory to Hillary Clinton. Tomorrow, the candidates race to Indiana, the only truly up-for-grabs state left in the primary season. (Obama's already in Indiana, actually, getting a head start on the Clintons. I'm hoping on a Pennsylvania upset just for the slapstick comedy of the Obamas racing through the airport to arrive in the state and claim victory.)

Carrie Budoff Brown and Ken Vogel have a fine guide to election-watching, pointing out that, unlike in some states (Maryland, Ohio), the cities and suburbs report their results before the scattered rural towns. Jon Vaught LaBeaume has hard data analysis at Election Dissection. The Ohio exit polls will be a good barometer of this race. Has Obama's white support gone up or down?

The Democrats. There are two ways in which Pennsylvanians could actually impact the Democratic primary. The first would be handing Hillary Clinton a tub-thumping landslide, a 20-point win in which she sweeps all but one county (Philadelphia). The second would be a miraculous Obama upset, as rural white voters un-clench their Bibles and muskets and vote for the skinny kid with the funny name. I'd give these scenarios a 10 percent and 5 percent likelihood of unfolding, respectively. Yes: a 5 percent chance of an Obama win.

Barring some sort of Clinton meltdown, Obama never had a chance to win this state. His goal was to keep the score close, and to improve on the pathetic performance he had with white voters in Ohio, to prove to party elders that the campaign bus will be safe if they hand him the keys. Even after a solid month of negative storylines, polling suggests that… it's working. Clinton's lead, which got as high as 26 points, is down to an average of 6 points. Obama has plateaued at around 44 percent of the vote. In recent contests, the undecided vote has broken for Clinton, so I'm betting on a 55-44 victory for Clinton. What could change that: high rural turnout, the Philly machine successfully cutting into Obama's usual black support, or the Philly burbs (which could make up 25 percent of the total state)

The Republicans. I think Ron Paul blew an opportunity here. In 2000, Pennsylvania Republicans voted a full month after McCain was knocked out of the GOP race. The result: A fairly weak 73.5 percent victory for George W. Bush. More than a quarter of Republicans refused to back their candidate. With Mike Huckabee and Paul on the ballot, the last anti-McCain holdout had, I believe, a chance to scare up 15 to 20 percent of the vote. Instead he made a few terribly botched statements that led people to believe he'd left the race and took two perfunctory trips to the state. He spent yesterday in… Montana.

Still, don't expect McCain to get some Saddam-esque vote margin. The highest GOP turnout will be in the northern, rural 5th and 10th districts, among the kind of voters who'd been casting ballots for Huckabee until he dropped out of the race. I'd give McCain 86 percent of the vote in a low-turnout primary, with 5 percent for Ron Paul and the rest to Huckabee or write-ins.

UPDATE 8:00: Daily Kos has exits, which show both a surge of older voters (vis a vis Ohio) and a substantial recovery for Obama from groups he lost in Ohio.

8:13: The regional exit poll is interesting: Obama mopped up in Philly (69-31) and the burbs (62-37), which he needed to do to avoid humiliation. Clinton's margin is coming from the northeast and west of the state. If this holds, though, Clinton's winning by less than 10 points.

8:23: After all the fuss about gun-clinging, guess how much of the electorate owned the fearsome things? Thirty-seven percent. Clinton won them handily, and Obama won non-gun-owners.

8:27: On my TV screen, Howard Fineman says Obama's strategy was to grind Clinton down in Pennsylvania and bankrupt her for the rest of the primaries. It's the Verdun of primaries!

8:33: Lowest common denominator watch: Ten percent of voters think neither Obama nor Clinton is "trustworthy." Clinton won them by 55 points.

8:34: Two-thirds of people think Clinton is "in touch with" them. How many think Obama is in touch with them? Two-thirds. So much for bittergate.

8:50: Every network projects for Clinton with 1 percent of the vote counted.

8:53: Interesting. CNN has adjusted its exit polls down, with seniors dropping from 38 to 33 percent of the vote, under-29s rising from 10 to 12 percent.

9:12: Jim Geraghty hears that Clinton might launch ads mocking Obama for turning down debate invitations. That would be stupid. She ran that ad when Obama ducked Wisconsin debates, and then he pulverized her in the state primary.

9:16: I way overestimated McCain's support, as he's struggling to get 72 percent in his basically uncontested primary.

9:41: One group Clinton improved on, compared to Ohio: Weekly churchgoers. (I'm done quoting the exits as they keep morphing.)

9:46: Marc Ambinder explains why this doesn't matter:

If Obama keeps his pledged delegate lead to around 150, Clinton needs to win 70% of them on May 6—and if not, 80% of them after May 6.

That's more than next to impossible.

That's why I'm paying attention to Obama's weakness among certain groups of voters. It's encouraging, if you're a Republican. It's not encouraging enough if you're Clinton. Obama needed to melt down under the wave of controversies, but he merely wilted a little, then kept on moving.

10:10: I'm not watching Fox News; friends who are inform me that the Bradley Effect theory is getting pushed hard, with Obama expected to massively underperform the exit polls in the suburbs. It's the kind of thing we'll know by midnight.

10:36: I'll never understand exit polls. They're actually underestimating Obama's Philadelphia margin at the moment, by 3 or 4 points. This leads me to believe Fox's Bradley Effect proponent Pat Caddell was full of shit.

10:50: Meanwhile, the Democrats nearly won the Mississippi seat of Roger Wicker, the congressman who replaced Trent Lott in the Senate. Their candidate got 49 percent of the vote, so it goes to a 2-way runoff.

12:39: Hats off to the rEVOLution: Ron Paul will come out ofhis home state with around 127,000 votes, giving him around 974,000 votes total for the caucuses and primaries that have wrapped thus far. He'll undoubtedly hit one million for the whole primary season: More than Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, or John Edwards.

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  1. Early exits have Obama in the lead.

  2. You really think Clinton has a 10% chance of winning by 20+ points, David?

  3. It’s probably just wishful thinking, but I’d reverse those numbers and say she’s got a 20% chance of winning by 10+ points. (OK, maybe a little higher – 25%…?), and almost no chance of winning by 20+ points.

  4. I’m gonna go for Clinton by 5. Which makes her basically as good as dead.

  5. I want an income tax cut but my neighbor says that I am not a “true” anti-tax guy because I don’t give a fuck about his Estate Tax. That makes me a Democrat to him.

    (clinging to this shit, bros)

  6. I’m taking Obama and the points.

  7. You think Paul botched it by not spending time in PA. It all depends on what his goal is. If he were trying to impact the election and the views of his party then you are right. If the presidential bid were just a glorified way of raising millions which he can later use on other projects then not campaigning makes sense.

    Paul never spent his funds as if he were seriously seeking the nomination. It always appeared to me that his campaign was an excuse to raise a lot of funds for something else. Under FEC rules he gave give his funds to a non profit organization and he just happens to have one that he runs. We’ll see I guess.

  8. “If the presidential bid were just a glorified way of raising millions which he can later use on other projects then not campaigning makes sense.”

    If Ron thought he was going to raise millions when he started he is crazier than his detractors say. Nobody saw that coming at the beginning, but that doesn’t rule out your non profit conspiracy theory once he started pulling in the dollars. Frankly its very reasonable that he didn’t know what to do with all that money, headquarters was an iffy operation.

  9. Hillary by eleven is my prediction. Took the average of the polls and added five. The only thing that troubles me is if the polls probably don’t account for all the migration to PA, but much could be from the NY/North NJ area so that would probably help Clinton anyway, along with the Hispanics.

  10. “Jon Vaught LaBeaume has hard data analysis at Election Projection. ”

    LaBeaume’s site is called ElectionDissection.com. Election Projection (.com) is a different site run by someone named Scott Elliot.

  11. Hillary by 8 . . . she bawls in front of the camera, Chelsea has a lesbian orgy induced orgasm, and Bill claims that Obama is actually the Grand Wizard of the KKK. On to Indiana.

  12. Call me a goddamned moral relativist (which would be true), but Chelsea as a lesbian is much more appealing than Hillary as one.

  13. shrike,

    I have no love for cutting the estate tax either. My kids won’t have done shit to earn that money. Give it back to me at a reduced tax rate while I’m alive. I’ll spend it.

  14. “I’ll spend it.” – Bryan

    And you should. Enjoy it!

    The most rational comment I have heard regarding this tax is this – ‘What tax could be fairer than one levied on me AFTER I die?’

    So – that is the one I will worry about least.

    Caveat – If Herr Bush had not driven up future taxes by $5 TRILLION then it might be different…..

  15. Do you think there are any states that Obama lost to Clinton (count this one, but I don’t think by 10) but that he could then beat McCain?

  16. Bryan | April 22, 2008, 7:37pm | #
    shrike,

    I have no love for cutting the estate tax either. My kids won’t have done shit to earn that money. Give it back to me at a reduced tax rate while I’m alive. I’ll spend it.

    What you talkin’ ’bout Willis?

    You already own your estate!

    You made your money, you paid your taxes on it and you can spend it how you want while you are alive.

    If, however, you opt not to spend and instead save it to pass it on to your kids then the Government takes a second slice of your pie. Then it wonders why savings are down and debt is up.

  17. MNG,
    New York and California.

  18. And maybe Ohio but I am not so sure.

  19. The estate tax issue is one of the most bullshit issues ever (since it effects such a minute amount of folks, hey Taktix or Episarch, you’ll never, ever qualify btw ;)), but it’s a real tribute to the genuis of Luntz. He took this bullshit non-issue, repackaged it, and made it have real legs. The guy is unbearable, but he hit on something there. Give the devil his due…

  20. Kwix
    Jeez, you’re absolutely right, I should have realized that there were some obvious answers to that question…NY and CA will go Democrat if a chicken was had the D beside its name…Ohio and Pa though, there’s the rub. Interestingly, I don’t see a Democrat becoming Prez without winning those two states, and Obama will lose both. Interesting, because I think he will beat HRC. His effect may be to make states like Alabama and Virginia a bit more competitive, but still GOP, yet lose the race.
    That guy is going to need either 1. a hell of a VP or 2. McCain to do something really dumb

  21. When I say “Obama will lose both” I mean to HRC. I’m very curious if the person who loses to HRC in those two states could then beat McCain…

  22. Hillary by 4. I switched my party affiliation to Democrat to vote for Obama, because I feel he will bring the swiftest end to the war in Iraq and give our country a better face for the international community than we’ve had in decades.

  23. There is no way at this time in history America is going to elect a black man or a woman.

  24. Why and the hell do you guys continue to talk about Ron Paul and his vote totals? The guy is a fucking joke, totally insignificant in the greater, or even lesser scheme of things.
    Ron Paul blew an opportunity? For christ sake, you have to have an opportunity before you blow one.

  25. Mr. Nice Guy:

    I’ve gone on record here as saying that Ohio will flip to the Democrats. I’m fairly certain that Satan – (D) would beat Jesus – (R) in Ohio the way the Republican party has killed it’s good name with scandals.

    Nephilium

  26. 8:27: On my TV screen, Howard Fineman says Obama’s strategy was to grind Clinton down in Pennsylvania and bankrupt her for the rest of the primaries.

    That’s funny, Obama’s using the same strategy that al-Qaeda’s number 2 was talking about last week. Coincidence?

  27. Nephilium,

    I challenge your estimate with this stupid, but potentially fun, take: Marx(D) vs Lenin(R), who would win in Ohio?

  28. Suggested REASON cover article: Go back over the last, say, 50 years, and look at the campaign promises of Presidential candidates who were subsequently elected. See how many were kept. See how many went totally in the opposite direction (e.g., “I’ll lower taxes” said by one who subsequently raises them; “I’ll eliminate Cabinet posts by someone who adds to them; “I’ll cut the size of government” by someone until whose leadership the size of government grows.)

    I’m just guessing here, but I’m betting the percentage of kept promises hovers somewhere between 0-5%, depending on how picayune the promises you include, and how generous you are at counting something as the keeping of a promise.

    This would raise the question, of course, as to why anyone cares what promises Presidents make.

  29. LOL Clinton wins it I guess people were just to “bitter”.

  30. “That’s funny, Obama’s using the same strategy that al-Qaeda’s number 2 was talking about last week. Coincidence?” – Preemptive Neil.

    Not at all.

    Obama is a secret Muslim.

    McCain is a secret Commie guest of the Hilton Hotel chain in Vietnam.

    Hillary is biker lesbian Mongol.

    Fear is in the air.

    (shrike here – changed the name to guilt the guilty)

  31. Operation Chaos doe snot seem to be going as well as Rush Limbaugh had hopped.

    If Hillary either looses or wins but not by a landslide she is toast.

  32. “Hillary is biker lesbian Mongol.”

    I remember an episode of the Simpsons set in a future where Lisa was POTUS. In one scene she stated that she was proud to be “the first heterosexual female president.”

  33. Verdun? More like the Somme (1916).

  34. Oh, and Obamad?mmerung.

  35. Yahoo Answerer,

    Good news: you spelled “landslide” right. Keep working on it.

  36. Ten percent of voters think neither Obama nor Clinton is “trustworthy.”

    ie, 90% of voters are hopeless dupes.

  37. ie, 90% of voters are hopeless dupes.

    No, Chris! They are just operating upon a less demanding definition of “trustworthy”.

    Trustworthy adj.

    1. deserving of trust or confidence; dependable; reliable

    2. when given the chance, would not kill us all

    The American people are working with def. #2.

  38. Operation Chaos doe snot…

    You ever tell a deer to clean her nose? It just doe snot work.

  39. Good save, LMNOP, but I’m not even sure they fit definition #2 either…

  40. I didn’t have the stones to make a prediction about this primary.

    It’s shaping up to be a six point Clinton victory. Six points is exactly what the RCP Average and Surveys USA had as their final results.

    And, oh yeah, the sum total of the culture war crap among blue collar voters in PA has been Obama slightly outpacing his performance in Ohio among them.

  41. TEXAS POLYGAMIST TIPSTER AN OBAMA DELEGATE!

    You all will not believe this! The Jawa Report is reporting that the alleged tipster responsible for the raid on the Texas Compound of Polygamists, is a Democrat Precinct Chair from El Paso County, Colorado, and PLEDGED BARACK OBAMA DELEGATE #269.

    This is confirmed, though buried in the stories, by both the Denver Post and Salt Lake City Tribune.

    We have the story and links now up at http://www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com Click on url for my name.

  42. yawn, lolz, etc

  43. You all will not believe this!

    Won’t believe it? Or won’t care?

  44. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 9:37pm | #

    HOLY SHIT!!!

    I bet your sleuthwork will prove as effective as all your previous efforts!

    Keep up the good fight mein heir!

    Also, I have a line for you on discounted cialis!

    I get emails about it all the time! But you REALLY need the shit homie. Really.

  45. Didn’t that “tipster” have some legal problems in the past?

  46. Mccain: 72%, Paul: 15%, Huckabee: 12% so far…

  47. That’s kind of funny, actually.

    Lemme say: Huh!

    OK. Lost interest.

  48. I am calling this one for Mrs. Clinton. May this archive live forever as proof of my prediction.

  49. I mean ‘mein herr’.

    My german was learned by watching the movie Top Secret.

    I can say, “There is a schnauzer in my leiderhosen” perfectly, though

  50. Im glad Paul is beating Huckabee the fascist.

  51. Dondero,

    Whats your point? Why aren’t you calling CNBC and Fox news with this worthless drivel?

  52. Wow – Obama is capturing the polyamorous vote according to ‘Dondero’.

    That is admirable – although the Amish may cancel that vote out.

  53. Don’t feel self concious Gilmore. It took me a few minutes just get the pun from the title.

  54. Ron Paul is a PA favorite son, born just outside Pittsburgh.

  55. The Dondero Strikes Back . . .

  56. Kinda sad actually. German makes up roughly a third of English . . . I made myself depressed.

  57. Can someone here fill me in on the Dondero funnies??? I haven’t seen him post in long while prior to tonight. Is he now on the McCain bandwagon? Does he claim that JohnnyMac is a libertarian? That would be rich . . .

  58. Neil | April 22, 2008, 8:48pm | #

    LOL Clinton wins it I guess people were just to “bitter”.

    Neil, please. try and spell

  59. Ron Paul will be the president in the end, so who cares?

  60. Gilmore,

    a miniature schnauzer, you mean

  61. “That is admirable – although the Amish may cancel that vote out.”

    As strict pacifists I would think the Amish would be more likely to vote for Obama. Although, they might just vote for Paul in the Republican primary.

  62. I’m new to posting here. Who the hell is this Dondero guy? Name sounds familiar but can’t place him.

    You guys seem to have run into him before judging by the utter contempt shown to his thread.

  63. jes’ guessin’ | April 22, 2008, 9:55pm | #

    Gilmore,

    a miniature schnauzer, you mean

    [german accent]

    I have now just checked, and, ja, i vas initially incorrect.

    It is in fact a gargantuan Dachshund

  64. For the record, I own three guns, and I voted (in Texas a while back, not Penn) for Obama. Not that I’m decided on whether I’ll vote D in November (I won’t if it’s Hillary, maybe 50/50 if it’s Obama – otherwise voting L), but I wanted to cast a vote for someone whose antiwar policy wasn’t just revisionist pandering.

    Also for the demographic record, I hates me some WWE, and approved of Obama’s response, as being the most empty pandering thereto. Hillary’s looked forced, and McCain looked like he believed it.

  65. Naga Sadow | April 22, 2008, 10:00pm | #

    Who the hell is this Dondero guy?

    No von who matters. Zere are no real persons named Donderoooo

  66. Look. This isn’t the Rumble in the Jungle. It’s not World War II. It’s not even Tom & Jerry. It’s more like Wrestlemania. A little bit of fireworks and a laser display. But it is really just make-believe. A show. A show that happens every few years. Lots of noise and lots of action. But fundamentally still just a show. Nobody gets hurt. Yes, I am talking about the US Presidential election. http://angryafrican.net/2008/04/22/storm-in-a-teacup/

  67. FH,

    Mrs. Clinton might have tapped into the hawkish Amish pacifists that seem to escape most pollsters..

  68. lunchstealer | April 22, 2008, 10:02pm | #

    For the record, I own three guns,

    Ahh, gut!

    I have zwei. Von is for fighting, and von is for fun.

  69. Since the Amish have no television or radio they are probably unaware that Obama is a secret Muslim anti-flag pin guy.

    Strictly based on principle is no way to go through life, son.

    (parodying Dean Wormer…)

  70. Dem Pollster Pat Caddell just said on Fox News that Clinton is “clobbering Obama” and will win by the mid-teens, maybe as much as 15%.

    All are saying that this is great news for Republicans, and that Republicans now want to run against Obama: Big Reason – Reagan Democrats hate Obama.

    WELCOME BACK TO THE GOP REAGAN DEMOCRATS!!!

  71. MSNBC keeps showing that Nutter fascist, the guy who pushed the smoking bans in Philly.

    *shakes fist at TV*

  72. Sorry Gilmore, already googled his name. It was funny just reading the posts under the links. What a fucking douche! He seems almost like a plant to discredit libertarians.

  73. Geez, remember all those Ron Paulists who “flirted with Obama” immediately after Paul pulled out of the race a few weeks ago?

    Wonder how they’re feeling now?

    We’re not hearing from any of those “Paul-Obamacans.” The silence from them is deafening.

  74. Has the real Dondero called McCain a “libertarian Republican” yet?

  75. Dieser verr?ckte Mann Donderooo spricht viel

  76. Bad night for Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell and all the Anti-War so-called libertarians. They’re the biggest loser here.

    After all, Hillary said today that she would “Obliterate Iran” if they attacked Israel. And the Reagan Dems in Northeastern PA, and around Pittsburgh and even the northern Philly suburbs LOVE HER FOR IT!

  77. “MSNBC keeps showing that Nutter fascist”

    Most people who seek or are in political office are nutter fascists.

  78. “Reagan Democrats hate Obama.”

    They won’t vote for the first gay President. Sorry but between the Ellen show dance, his bowling, and his wife calling him an accessory, either he is very effeminate or gay, not that there is anything wrong with that, just that Reagan Dems don’t seem to like that.

  79. What the hell is a “Reagon democrat”?

  80. The hawkish Amish, descendants of Amish Knights who survived the Quaker wars, do not have television either and are unaware of Mr. Obama’s contempt for their religion and weapons, wooden guns shaped like Amazon Goddesses that they clutch as they meditate.

    Also, they want to level Iran too, but Mrs. Clinton got the word out on that.

    Onward to Indiana! The Clinton train is picking up steam!

  81. ja, I mean dummkopf

  82. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:12pm | #

    Bad night for Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell and all the Anti-War so-called libertarians

    ja, und Neil. Und ze Donderooo

  83. The real Dondero – me (and my cell # is 832-896-9505, call now to confirm) – is a Bob Barr and/or Wayne Root for President supporter.

    I hope McCain does well. But only so as the lower level Republican candidates like Tom McClintock, George Broun, Woody Jenkins, Sean Parnell, et.al win for Congress!

    Unless the LP screws the pooch and nominates a Lefty non-Celeb Libt. like Mary Ruwart, or Steve Kubby, I’ll be voting for the Libertarian candidate for President, thank you.

  84. “Most people who seek or are in political office are nutter fascists.”

    Yes I know but this is personal. Philly has great bars and cold winters. Not only when I visit do I shiver, but I also lose my seat. Even though I don’t drink like I used to, Nutter cost a couple of bars a lot of my money.

  85. Dondero, due to your phrasing I must ask: Are you saying LVMI people are not “real Libertarians”?

  86. Pat Caddell doesn’t know what he’s talking about, if he even said that.

    With over half the vote in, she’s up 8%. To get to 16%, she’d have to win the remaining half of the vote 62-38. There are large areas of the Philly suburbs that haven’t reported yet. The margin is going to come down a point.

  87. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:14pm | #

    The real Dondero – me (and my cell # is 832-896-9505, call now to confirm

    Danke, Ich m?chte nicht Geschlecht mit Ihnen haben

  88. “I’m new to posting here. Who the hell is this Dondero guy?”

    The Bob Shrum of endorsements.

  89. Gilmore,

    Nuthin’ personal. Jes’ callin’ ya out fer yer bad jermin. BTW, it’s lederhosen not leiderhosen.

    …and dachshund means ‘badger dog’, a dog designed to probe into holes and fetch badgers (or gerbils?)

    Just be careful with your German. I don’t want you to get this Dondero (German for ‘Cleveland Steamer’ nonetheless) all excited.

    Tryin’ to be helpful.

  90. What the hell is a “Reagon democrat”?

    The type of professed Democrat who voted for Reagan rather than Carter or Dukakas.

  91. Naga . . . the answer to your question : Reagan Democrat = Eric Dondero

  92. Dondero, due to your phrasing I must ask: Are you saying LVMI people are not “real Libertarians”?

    Dondero’s basic criteria for libertarianism is thus: Pro-choice, pro-genocide. Anti-drug-war is icing on the cake, but not at all required for libertarianism.

  93. The type of professed Democrat who voted for Reagan rather than Carter or Dukakas.

    Known in contemporary parlance as a “Republican,” they probably didn’t play much of a role in the closed Democratic primary today.

    Reagan Democrats? What, are skinny ties next? Somewhere, it’s always 1985.

  94. Guy,

    I damn near fell out of my chair after reading your post. Reminds me of a family guy episode where Peter, if I remember correctly, says “As we all know, Christmas is the day when Jesus rises from the dead to feast on the flesh of the living”.

  95. jes’ guessin’ | April 22, 2008, 10:18pm | #

    Gilmore,

    Nuthin’ personal. Jes’ callin’ ya out fer yer bad jermin. BTW, it’s lederhosen not leiderhosen.

    …and dachshund means ‘badger dog’, a dog designed to probe into holes and fetch badgers

    Ja, ja, zat is ze one.

    If i uundershtaand vat you mean by ze Baadjer

    ees, that ze one that makes it fiishysmellin?

  96. Wow, during her inagugration victory speech, Mrs. Clinton did not complain about the boys picking on the girl. But she did just beg for money.

    Now she is wanting to surrender Iraq. Maybe the pullout is so that our troops will be safe from the blasts over Iran? She also wants to make the military a lot bigger.

    YES SHE CAN! YES SHE CAN! YES SHE CAN!

    Now, onward to Indiana and win a few dozen more delegates! Need an exciting convention and all.

  97. Guy,
    Wouldn’t that just be called an uncommitted voter?

    Dondero,
    Are you so sad a character that you have to get people pissed off with you just so can get phone calls and pretend you have friends?

  98. Interesting discussion on MSNBC about counties that have flipped from Republican to Democrat in the runup to this race.

  99. Listening to Hillary is giving me a stomachache. I just don’t see the appeal of this person.

  100. I don’t want you to get this Dondero (German for ‘Cleveland Steamer’ nonetheless) all excited.

    Ahh! Nien! Nien! Der Donderooo in Bavaria it means “machtloser Affe mit W?rstchen”

  101. The phone number is there, published openly on this Forum, because in the past, advesaries have published nonsense posts under my name. If anyone wishes to confirm that it is indeed my posting, all they need to do is call.

  102. “As we all know, Christmas is the day when Jesus rises from the dead to feast on the flesh of the living”.

    LMAO for real! That is way funny.

  103. Lunchstealer, I opposed Saddam Hussein, the genocidal maniac. You and your kind supported him.

    So, the Dondero definition of “libertarian” is to oppose genocide and support human rights.

  104. Is that right?

  105. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:29pm | #

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXiMfukBZM4

  106. Naga Shadow, is that a real name or a bogus on-line name you’re posting under?

    If bogus, why are you being such a chicken shit? Why not use your real name?

  107. Are you so sad…(Dondero)

    Naga Sadow, I’d call you a quick study but that would be an insult…in this case.

  108. “Bad night for Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell and all the Anti-War so-called libertarians. They’re the biggest loser here.”

    Don’t sell yourself short, Dondero. You can more than hold your own with anyone on that list.

  109. “I may stumble, I may get knocked down, but with your help, I will always get right back up.”

    It’s true. She’s a terminator. My God, it’s moving! Hit it again. Again. Again!

  110. Looks like roughly an 8% win. Inconclusive basically.

  111. Looks like the blue collar base of the Democrat Party just isnt comfortable voting for Obama.

    Its gonna be Hillary double digits, underpreformed in the suburbs. Guess theyre “bitter” too.

  112. “joe | April 22, 2008, 10:26pm | #
    Interesting discussion on MSNBC about counties that have flipped from Republican to Democrat in the runup to this race.”

    Yeah Limbaugh will try to get some credit for this, but anyone that has goes through PA can see that the demographics are changing rapidly. Harrisburg itself changes from month to month. This is the first Presidential Primary for many new Hispanics. PA is getting bluer and bluer every day. Maybe it is just because I have followed PA closely throughout the years, but it seems to be getting bluer faster than any other state. Most of the educated productive people leave because there are no jobs and people like Rendell are just going to make it worse.

  113. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:30pm | #

    Lunchstealer, I opposed Saddam Hussein

    This is true. He was facing away. And the Saddam was invading his backside. I hate you!!

  114. If she was a Weeble should wouldn’t even have to worry about getting knocked down.

  115. Does anyone think this is actually going to make any difference?

    (sitting at a bar, watching basketball)

  116. How does it feel liberals to have a probable nominee who will never win white working class votes?

  117. Neil | April 22, 2008, 10:33pm | #

    Its gonna be Hillary double digits

    Uh, Neel?

    You divide the difference by 2. it has to add to 100%. 55/45 is a 5 point difference. Not 10.

    I have some books you could read.

  118. WOW! Politico.com is now reporting, with 71% in, that it’s a 10 point margin. Hillary has inched up to near 55% to Obama’s 45%. It had been hovering at 54% to 46%. Looks like Philly is all in. So, that means the trend will be all up for Hillary from here on out as Western PA and the rural areas report in.

    Again: Very, very bad night for “Ned Lamontian/Daily Kos” latte’ sipping elitist Anti-War Democrats.

    HUGE VICTORY FOR THE REAGAN DEMOCRATS.

    Now Libertarians need to figure out how to reach this constituency.

  119. Neil | April 22, 2008, 10:37pm | #

    How does it feel liberals to have a probable nominee who will never win white working class votes?

    Shit is ahhiight.

  120. Honey? It’s time for the meds. And then you can go back to the computer friends before bed.

  121. This is the first time, Paul’s received double-digits (He nearly did it in Iowa) Of course, the low turnout and fewer candidates on the ballot were to his advantage.

  122. Isn’t it funny, that we never hear Libetarians and especially Reason-oids on the subject of blue collar voters and Reagan Democrats?

    Tonight was the TRIUMPH for the Reagan Dem and Blue Collar America.

    Mainstream libertarianism is the best way to reach them. Not radical extremist America-hating, unPatriotic leftist libertarianism.

  123. WOW! Politico.com is now reporting, with 71% in, that it’s a 10 point margin. Hillary has inched up to near 55% to Obama’s 45%. It had been hovering at 54% to 46%. Looks like Philly is all in. So, that means the trend will be all up for Hillary from here on out as Western PA and the rural areas report in.

    The TV networks are up to 76% and its back down to 8 pts.

  124. Hell yeah LOL the Real America is the victor tonight!

  125. “How does it feel liberals to have a probable nominee who will never win white working class votes?”

    What you don’t think “Dukakis with rhythm” has a chance?

  126. E.D.,

    Guy Montag is a real name. Some people do use real names online.

    However, I never use my real name online 🙂

  127. Dondero,

    Its a posting name of course. Chickenshit for exercising my constitutionally protected right to privacy (as interpreted by the Supreme Court anyway, it doesn’t actually appear in there). Have you not been reading your own posts? Hilarious and more than a little bizarre, can’t be having possibly deranged persons showing up at one of my residences.

    I’ll back off, you may continue with your rants

  128. Obama using “This Is Our Country” from the overplayed Chevy ads.

  129. Neil | April 22, 2008, 10:42pm | #

    Hell yeah LOL the Real America is the victor tonight!

    LOL

    Hilary LOVES real americans.

  130. Notice the Abercrombie boys behind Obama?

  131. Still feelin smug Joe?

  132. oooh, where??!

  133. MEANINGLESSNESS IS WHAT WE FOUGHT THE WAR FOR!!

  134. Notice the Abercrombie boys behind Obama?

    I did. Product placement?

  135. Guy,

    What was the fire chief’s name? I haven’t read Bradbury in about 3 years.

  136. “Four more years of a war with no exit strategy”

    Definitely true of McCain, but Obama wouldn’t promise a pullout by the end of his first term.

  137. This is the first time, Paul’s received double-digits (He nearly did it in Iowa)

    Wrong.

    1/19 NV – 13.73%
    2/01 ME – 18.28%
    2/05 AK – 16.80%
    2/05 MN – 16.09%
    2/05 ND – 21.27%
    2/09 KS – 11.40%
    2/09 WA – 21.64%

  138. This election is making me feel like poop. It is a poopy election with poopy candidates. It is a surreal poopiness that dominates these campaigns. Poop, I tell you . . . poop!

  139. Seconds ago… Politico.com

    Hillary now at 55.06%

    Obama at 44.96%

    SHE JUST WENT OVER A 10% MARGIN WHICH IS THE DEFINITION OF A BLOW-OUT THAT ALL THE PUNDITS HAD ESTABLISHED FOR HER.

    And looking at the map, it’s just the rural counties that are left to report in.

    She’ll probably end up with an 11 or 12% margin.

    Very, very bad night for Anti-War Liberals, and even Anti-War Libertarians.

    THE STRENGTH ON FOREIGN POLICY REAGAN DEMOCRATS WIN BIG!!

  140. Ok, the first time he’s done it in a primary.

  141. Naga,

    NEIN!

    Montag was just a Fireman and an expert at finding hidden books. He taught himself how to read and no longer liked the society that had him trapped. So he escaped.

    The Fire Chief was killed by Montag.

  142. What a chicken shit you are Naga Shadow for posting under a bogus name. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it’s your Constitutional right and all. But who the fuck cares. Just means you’re a yellow-bellied coward for using a fake name.

    I do NOT ALLOW Anonymous postings at my Libertarian Republican blog, nor fake names.

    Too bad let’s you all scumbags get away with it. If I was Matt Welch I’d delete all posts by people who use fake names.

  143. Amazing, no discussion here on the biggest issue of the night: The Return of the Reagan Democrats.

    Do you all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream American politics?

  144. Having a bunch of people in A&F garb isn’t exactly the way to counter being called an elitist.

  145. Dondero,

    What is your purpose here? Are you leaning towards Clinton against McCain at this point?

    (I know you’re supporting LP, but you know they have no chance of getting an electoral vote in Nov).

  146. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:03pm | #

    How libertarian of you.

    Eric, it was me, and if it wasnt obvious – it should have been, but i understand, you’re not a clever lad – in the future, ALWAYS assume its me. It makes it more fun

  147. Is there an Obama “political cliche” drinking game for his speeches yet or do all the people who test the concept die?

  148. Eric-

    I do not have any clue about mainstream american politics. And you know what? I don’t care!

  149. “The Return of the Reagan Democrats”

    That movie sucked. Luckily it doesn’t seem to be playing at the theater tonight, since the 8-10 point margin, if it holds up, is very close to what she had been expected to win by and is far less than she’d been polling in PA for pretty much the entire past year.

    Had Dondero been soiling himself over Hillary before tonight, or is this a new phenomenon?

    There’s really no need to know anything about a candidate’s position if Dondero’s around. Just find out which candidate(s) he supports, and run screaming the other way. You’re pretty much assured of getting 1) the more libertarian candidate, and 2) the candidate with the better chance of winning.

  150. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:04pm | #

    Amazing, no discussion here on the biggest issue of the night: The Return of the Reagan Democrats.

    Maybe no one except you really cares.

    That would be too much for your little fantasy world though.

    I can’t wait until later in the year when we can watch Hilary go down crying like a bitch and giggle because everyone you’ve ever supported (for whatever goddam reason) is doomed, almost by your very endorsement

    kiss of death it is

  151. Paul is crossing the 100,000 votes in PA. Who would’ve thunk it?

    Hey, Eric, how many votes will your mainstream Root get in November?

  152. “Do you all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream American politics?”

    Voting for Clinton makes you a Reagan Democrat?

  153. I do NOT ALLOW Anonymous postings at my Libertarian Republican blog, nor fake names.

    That’s sort of like a 400-pound woman who reeks like rotting garbage saying she doesn’t let guys feel her up on the first date, isn’t it?

  154. Holy shit, I swear you are getting crazier by the day Dondero. Look, saying that the Reagan Democrats won big is the exact same as saying that the Christian Muslims won big. The two are like unconnected sets in a Venn diagram (see also military intelligence).

    I am assuming that you are being rhetorical when you ask “Do you all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream American politics?” but I think you would fit in better running with the survivalists in Montana than anywhere else. Here is a pro-tip, and this one is free, real Americans don’t work themselves into a froth rage because somebody posts under a pseudonym.

    Chill out dude, have a beer or something.

  155. The Reagan Democrats are dying or dead. That was 24 years ago. Changing demographics are not best described by quarter century old labels.

  156. Yellow bellied coward? LOL, who the hell even talks like that anymore? Wow, you basically banned me from a site I didn’t wanna visit in the first place, that’ll teach me.

  157. “Paul is crossing the 100,000 votes in PA. Who would’ve thunk it?”

    Exit polls have him taking the “Neoconfederate” vote 90-10%.

  158. Geez, remember all those Ron Paulists who “flirted with Obama” immediately after Paul pulled out of the race a few weeks ago?

    No, I don’t remember them. That’s probably because they don’t exist.

    HUGE VICTORY FOR THE REAGAN DEMOCRATS.

    OMG! Dondero thinks that a win for Clinton is a win for Reagan Democrats!

    Now Libertarians need to figure out how to reach this constituency.

    Obviously Libertarians need to draft Clinton as their candidate! Maybe Gravel can be her running mate. Wow, what a win for Libertarians!

  159. LevStrauss | April 22, 2008, 11:10pm | #

    Voting for Clinton makes you a Reagan Democrat?

    ShhhhhhhH! Dont ruin it!! It’s too much fun. let him rant some more about how she’s like, a post-op Rudy or something. It will be recorded on the intertubes forev-ah

  160. Naga Sadow | April 22, 2008, 11:12pm | #

    Yellow bellied coward? LOL, who the hell even talks like that anymore?

    Hint = it ends in a long “oooooooooooooooo” sound.

  161. Okay, I am going out on a limb here and predict Mrs. Clinton by 9 points, +/- 2

  162. Exit polls have him taking the “Neoconfederate” vote 90-10%.

    hehe 🙂

  163. Voting for Hillary makes you a Reagan Democrat? I am confused and remember I died thus curing me of Alzheimers. Mr. Donderoo, you are a damned Liberal!

  164. More Politico.com. Now 85% reporting:

    Clinton keeps going up, now at 55.20%. Only Counties left, far nothern rim of the State, plus oddly Chester County in the South.

    Looks like she’ll end up with between 10 to 12 point winning margin.

    The Return of the Reagan Democrats: Socially Moderate, Strong on Defense, fiercely Patriotic.

  165. what sucks is that i’m only going to win pennies on the dollar betting hilary was going to win tonight.

    joe convinced me back in….whenever. At least now I might get better odds on the nom.

  166. Pat Caddell explained earlier tonight that Hillary is not a “Reagan Democrat” but that the RDs are voting for her, cause she’s closest to their views. Yet, in the end, 90% of them will end up voting for McCain.

    McCain IS the Reagan Democrat.

  167. Naga,

    I was just giving the “Reagan Democrat” common press usage from back-in-the-day. As others have pointed out, it is a pretty meaningless term now.

  168. You ALMOST got Ron Paul’s margin – by early results he has about 15%.

    You just should have left out the last part…

  169. Neil, do you think the Mormons in Utah are going to refuse to vote for John McCain?

  170. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:19pm | #

    Socially Moderate, Strong on Defense, fiercely Patriotic.

    V chip, censor video games, tax the shit out of you to pay for univeral healthcare for geriatric voters, a woman who’ll bullshit over anything, and say anything if it gets her elected… and protested the vietnam war.

    Way to go dude.

    While the rest of us military-types who thinks she’s a cunt? What do you call us?

    Oh, right. “Cowards”.

    You’re a fucking A+ parody of yourself. Semper fi man, semper fi.

  171. The Return of the Reagan Democrats: Socially Moderate, Strong on Defense, fiercely Patriotic.

    And they’re going to vote for McCain. Why are you so excited?

  172. Eric,

    You know what. Now that I think about it, I agree with you. Hillary is the true libertarian candidate.

  173. Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:20pm | #

    McCain IS the Reagan Democrat

    Who was your first candidate, i forget. They keep changing.

    I wish Inigo Montoya was here.

  174. The Return of the Reagan Democrats: Socially Moderate, Strong on Defense, fiercely Patriotic.

    Every candidate Donderoooooooo has supported has not only failed, but failed spectacularly. Today we see him all but endorsing Clinton by name. If we can only get him to endorse McCain, then we’ll see Obama versus Paul in November!

  175. Ever read Macbeth, Mr. Donderoo? McCain stars as Laertes.

  176. The result is in that mushy middle area – not an Obama collapse, not knocking Hillary out of the race, just status quo ante.

    She still can’t catch up, but she can stay in the race if she wants to.

    Still feeling smug, Neil. Hillary is the hard part; McCain is going to be easy after her.

    All this going on, and he still can’t get a lead? Not in the cards this year.

  177. Bill Kristol is another Reagan Dem . . . basically, ex-socialists that have a hard-on for war that haven’t quite lost their love for big spending and government planning. That’s why those types love FDR . . .

  178. Damn! The Obama-Clinton wars will continue unabated . . . not such a bad situation from the laugh perspective.

  179. @Eric Dondero

    Too bad let’s you all scumbags get away with it. If I was Matt Welch I’d delete all posts by people who use fake names.

    Oh, lighten up! A fake name could only improve your reputation. I suggest “He Who Must Be Kicked In The Nuts”…

  180. So, the Dondero definition of “libertarian” is to oppose genocide

    …you respond by not only killing him, but his friends too, and his family members, and then you go to his village and burn the WHOLE MOTHER FUCKING THING DOWN TO THE GROUND. You then, threaten all his countrymen, and the countrymen in surrounding countries…

    This fits the definition of genocide. Just sayin’. Admittedly you’re just kind of using genocide as a revenge fantasy, which is definitely better than actually practicing it on a large scale as Saddam did. But objectively pro-genocide.

  181. David Weigel: 100% right with Clinton-Obama prediction, 100% wrong with prediction on Ron Paul: more than 3 times his prediction. And all this with NO news coverage for Paul since weeks (with a few exceptions)
    in the msm over the past few weeks/months and the media misinterpreting his take over Paul dropping out.

  182. Haven’t had a chance to read all 183 (and counting) comments, but for someone who’s not even registering on the media richter scale, Ron Paul got 16% of the vote.

    That’s at least notable.

    President – GOP Primary
    Pennsylvania – 8863 of 9268 Precincts Reporting – 96%
    Name Party Votes Vote %
    McCain , John GOP 546,617 73%
    Paul , Ron GOP 120,481 16%
    Huckabee , Mike GOP 86,635 11%

  183. With liberals its always the 60s, with conservatives its always the 80s.

  184. After Hillary putting on an Osama bin Laden ad, why doesn’t Obama put up an add about Monica Lewisnky?

    It’d be on the same level, except much funnier.

  185. Hah, Ron Paul is still gaining name recognition.

    I wonder if he can use some of that to help Mr Barr out.

  186. Maybe should be Das Hillary Rheingold.

  187. So far,

    994,789 voters have punched for Paul. 9 states to go. Maybe he’ll break 1 million and this is 1 million Republicans opposed to the Iraq War.

    Nice figure. Wish it were more.

  188. Forgot to say congrats to PA voters. Most votes by any state yet for Paul, native son. No more war! Where’s that fag, Neil Young BTW. Who did he endorse?

  189. Mr. No-More-War endorses Barack Obama. Please see:

    http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2006-05-08-young-obama_x.htm

    Look at Mother Nature on the run in the 2000s.

  190. Maybe if Hillary played Wagner she’d scare the hell out of them damned minority voters.

  191. Thanks for taking your hat off. It would’ve been better if you’d actually voted for Libertarian principles. Maybe you did, although you’ve made that a secret. Fair enough. You have to lie in your profession, although next time you call a colleague on a lie remember what youv’e done. It doesn’t have to be like that.

    cheers,

    hatless

  192. There is no way at this time in history America is going to elect a black man or a woman.

    You’re a bit out of date there, sport. If Obama can defeat Hillary’s cronies at the convention, he’s a shoo-in. After that “100 years in Iraq” remark, given McCain’s inability to back down no matter how bloody stupid he looks, the democrats could even nominate Al Gore again and beat him.

    -jcr

  193. Do you all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream American politics?

    Really man, you’ve missed your calling. You should be a professional gag writer.

    -jcr

  194. They won’t vote for the first gay President.

    Given a choice between a man who might be gay, and bull dyke like Hillary, which way do you think the homophobes are going to vote?

    -jcr

  195. After that “100 years in Iraq” remark

    Wanna quote McCains actual remark, rather than that fiction Sen. Obama made up about it?

    And before you assume I am some McCain liker you go out and try to find ANYTHING I ever said in support of that Leftist RINO.

  196. Looking like a 10% margin this morning. Enough to, what’s the phrase? Oh yeah, “Keep Hope Alive” and give the supers cover for staying uncommitted and milking their moment in the sun.

  197. The margin, from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, with over 99% reporting, is 8.4%.

    That’s still enough to keep Hillary in the race.

  198. The Paul numbers are meaningless. The race is over and many Republicans either switched parties to vote in the Demo. primary or stayed home altogether. Calling this result representative of anything is a big mistake.

    And considering that Paul was the only candidate on the GOP side who actually campaigned in Pennsylvania he arguably should’ve done better.

  199. Meh, Doug, I doubt most people in PA even new he was campaigning there.

    BTW, I’m heartened to see that Eric Dondero is now a Hillary Clinton supporter. I predicted that he would come out in favor of her after he loudly supported Mitt Romney who essentially shared most of his political ideas with her.

    Of course, thanks in part to guys like Eric, who are so gung-ho about killing brown people that they are willing to bankrupt their nation and wreck its economy, the Democratic nominee will be the next president. And, the fact that it is looking increasingly like it will be a closet Marxist fills me full of dread.

  200. It might seem off-topic, but since the clip from Rocky III was included in the article, it’s not might fault…

    Was anybody else confused/concerned at 2:17 into the video? I never knew Rocky wore a sports bra…

  201. The margin, from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, with over 99% reporting, is 8.4%.

    Figures that in the minute after I post, better numbers come in.

    That’s still enough to keep Hillary in the race.

    Just barely. The whole perception game was pegged to a double digit win.

    What’s the delegate count, from the Dem’s goofy district system?

  202. I don’t know what’s up with CNN. They’re so married to their story, they’re stilling running with a 55-45 split.

    The delegates for Pennsylvania are about a 12-15 net gain for Hillary.

    That puts Obama up about 130, down from 140-something.

  203. Now, with 99.44% (yup, that’s really the number), it’s 9.2% Still doesn’t round to “double digits.”

  204. Ugh. Seriously, a 9 point win where she’s banking on getting the racist vote? I’d call her loathesome, but that would be insulting to loathesome things.

  205. Yes Joe, but ‘10%’ sounds snappier and more newsworthy than ‘9.2%’.

  206. I used to think that the conservative backing of Hillary was because they wanted the two of them to mess each other up before the nomination. Now I think they really DO want Hillary to win, because they just can’t deal with the cosmopolitanism of Obama. They want to stay with the 55-45 split, because that way they can say it was “double digits”. Even though it wasn’t.

    Interestingly, it does seem that Hillary capitalized on the over 60 vote and those with only a high school diploma. The older you are and the stupider you are, the more likely you are to back Hillary.

  207. # 12:39: Hats off to the rEVOLution: Ron Paul
    # will come out of his home state with around
    # 127,000 votes, giving him around 974,000
    # votes total for the caucuses and primaries
    # that have wrapped thus far.

    Three times your predicted finish, as others have also observed. This race still has some surprises, no? I wonder what else is in store?

    # Doug Mataconis | April 23, 2008, 10:04am | #
    # The Paul numbers are meaningless. The race
    # is over … And considering that Paul was
    # the only candidate on the GOP side who
    # actually campaigned in Pennsylvania he
    # arguably should’ve done better.

    Yet, Wiegel’s analysis, above, suggests that, had he campaigned “better,” Paul “had a chance” of doing 15-20%. Well, he hit that mark, anyway. So who is right: Wiegel, who thought Paul’s “high water mark” would have been maybe 20% with a good campaign, or Metaconis, who thinks the campaign he did run should have done better even than that?

    Does ANYONE understand what is going on this race? I suspect not, and that includes yours truly. It is entertaining, though. 🙂

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