Campaigns/Elections

Political Forecast

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Dave Barry:

Whatever happens with the Florida Democratic delegation, neither Obama nor Clinton will have enough delegates to win the nomination. They're locked in a bitter struggle that I predict will continue right through the Democratic convention, and then through the November presidential election. Next January President McCain will be giving his inaugural address, while somewhere else in America, Clinton and Obama will be holding their 1,387th debate, with the hostility level between them having reached the point where the debate consists entirely of spitting.

NEXT: The Friday Political Thread: Race for the Presidency Edition

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  1. Sounds like the most plausible outcome to me.

  2. i’d be content with that.

  3. Dave Barry is a gay man… not that there’s anything wrong with that!!

  4. I thought Dave Barry retired?

  5. the granny shot basketball player is teh gay?

  6. What Barry forgot to mention was the lawsuit. The dem candidate that wasn’t on the dem ticket in Nov will have filed a lawsuit that will work it’s way through to the Supreme Court, hoping to have a do-over of the entire election.

    Across the land people will blame Bush and think Rove was secretly responsible.

  7. And Dave Barry is not gay. He was friggin’ married in that sit-com he did after Night Court.

  8. There must be some way we could trick Spain into taking Florida back.

  9. It still means McCain in the White House. If only I could be content with that.

  10. It still means McCain in the White House. If only I could be content with that.

    I don’t think there’s a possible outcome to this election I could be content with. I advise finding another hobby besides politics for the next four years, unless you’re in to being suicidally depressed….

  11. Dave Barry is a gay man…

    the granny shot basketball player is teh gay?

    maybe you mean Rick Barry?

  12. I’d be content with Barack Obama.

    When you know both parties will pursue the exact same agenda (with minor tinkering on foreign policy if Democrats get in), you should resign yourself to hoping the most articulate of the bunch gets in.

  13. No matter who wins, it will be disastrous. Therefore, I am supporting the candidate most likely to provide 4 years of endless entertainment: The First Husband, Bill Clinton.

  14. johnl | March 21, 2008, 10:31pm | #
    There must be some way we could trick Spain into taking Florida back.

    Not a chance after they tricked us into taking it.

    “(while rubbing little America on his head) Here is your junior empire starter kit, now go have some fun, you young whippersnapper.”

  15. I wonder if Obama will do something about the Billions that we give to Israel?

    His drama with his preacher has landed him some accusations of antisemitism.

    Stopping the Billions in aide to Israel and Egypt would be a positive in my book.

  16. I wonder if, being black and all, Obama will re-think the effect the drug war has on black people?

    And then maybe rethink the effect that gun laws have?

    Or will he just go in the wrong direction and try to fix the wrongs with government imposed bad solutions, as socialists tend to do?

  17. shecky: It still means McCain in the White House. If only I could be content with that.

    Pigmnx: I don’t think there’s a possible outcome to this election I could be content with. I advise finding another hobby besides politics for the next four years, unless you’re in to being suicidally depressed….

    The idea that the D’s are tearing themselves apart while McCain coasts has some truth to it, but it is a temporary thing because the D’s are not stupid enough to let it drag on too too long. Obama has the momentum and may be the lesser evil compared to either of the other two evils. At least Obama would appoint judges who could help slow the massive erosion of civil liberties the nation has suffered under the current admin.

  18. kwais, the mainstream USA consensus on IL is pretty narrow. Once there is a basis to make claims that someone is outside the mainstream, the right play is to work extra hard to demonstrate that one is with the program. Remember the old Vulcan saying about Nixon and China? Expect OHB not to rock that boat.

    Ditto for the WOD.

  19. the massive erosion of civil liberties the nation has suffered under the current admin.

    No Administration apologist here, but “massive erosion”?

    Try not to trip on your overflowing hysteria.

  20. My theory is, the shorter a word is, the less likely I am to mess it up. But three letters, and I am already in trouble. Please sed “s:OBH:BHO:”.

  21. No matter who wins, it will be disastrous. Therefore, I am supporting the candidate most likely to provide 4 years of endless entertainment: The First Husband, Bill Clinton.

    You say this in jest, but I’ve been saying for a few years now that I’d be all for letting Bill serve another term. I’d rather have him and the politicos gnashing their teeth over cum stained dresses than the endless war and government expansion of the last several years.

  22. not to be the splash of cold water here, but the Clinton Administration and their drumbeat of war with Iraq helped lead to the current conflict.

    And are we to forget influence-peddling with the Chinese? Somalia?

    Come on, guys, if you see Bush as somehow radically different from Clinton, you have a bad case of nostalgia.

  23. Randian,
    Maybe not “radically” different, but Clinton was different enough from Bush for the difference to be significant. A finger-in-the-wind pol like Clinton would never have invaded Iraq, and especially would not have kept us in that quagmire for so long. I think it doubtful the civil liberties violations would have gone so far under Clinton, especially when he learned how generally unpopular they are. More likely, there would have been some milder crap that got passed, but then (and if Clinton’s team invaded Iraq) they would have been rolled back once he learned how unpopular those measures, and the war, generally was.
    Clinton’s friendliness with Republicans, sensitivity to polls, and squishy principles translated into years of not passing as much bad legislation as either a right or left wing ideologue would. Those qualities might not be good personal qualities, but when the circumstances are right, those same poor personal qualities can (and often did) mean that the very worst excesses of left and right were kept in check.

  24. “…you should resign yourself to hoping the most articulate of the bunch gets in.”

    Pablo, you realize, I hope, that describing Obama as articulate makes you a racist; just ask Joe Biden.

  25. you should resign yourself to hoping the most articulate of the bunch gets in.

    Huh. Im the exact opposite. When all the choices suck, I want the least articulate in office. Look how much good Bush has done by destroying any remaining respect for the office of the Presidency.


  26. No Administration apologist here, but “massive erosion”?

    Are you f’ing kidding me? The Military Commissions Act allows habeas corpus to be suspended for anybody, citizen or not, that the president deems suspicious.

    I don’t know about you, but I’d call that a massive erosion.

  27. It doesn’t matter who the Democrat Party nominates.

    Neither far-left liberal socialist can compete against an authentic real American like John McCain.

  28. It won’t be so funny when Allahmba brings in his corrupt, immoral big-city Chicago buddies to run his administration.

  29. Florida isn’t the problem. It’s you people coming down here and sullying our fair state that is the problem. You know who you are.

  30. authentic real American

    Jesse Ventura, now there’s an Authentic Real American.

  31. I think McCain will probably win, the press loves him too much to let him lose.

  32. “Allahmba ”

    and cute, too! i betcha you’re tough, too.

    Art – you bastard. HULK HOGAN.

  33. McCain will win because hes a real American and real Conservative. Americans aren’t going to trust a big-city machine politician from the southside of Chicago, or his far-left radical, angry wife.

  34. It won’t be so funny when Allahmba brings in his corrupt, immoral big-city Chicago buddies to run his administration.

    I’ll be laughing.

  35. Where are you from VM?

    Georgetown? New York City? Massachuseettes? San Francisco?

    Maybe you guys like Hussein, but he won’t play well out here in the real America.

  36. Neil –

    McCain gave a fantastic speech at the Cleveland city club about, what, 10-12 years ago… you would have loved it! the funny thing – I saw it, and… get this – I was living at the time around the corner from “AlHambra Vej” you see – we’re like those two cars that have adjoining spaces (aka “bumper buddies”) – we’re ham buddies!

  37. Neil,

    McCain’s real alright, real full of shit.

  38. (sorry for the double)

    Hi Niel. that’s a shame about that.

    Cuz, well, like, “Irish need not apply” and all that.

    sheesh

  39. Travis, VM-

    You might like Obama, but people out here in the heartland don’t. I guess I’m just a “typical white person” huh?

  40. Of the myriad issues that present themselves in any emperor election, the one that is differentiated by it’s true weight is the SCOTUS. The Court has the power to invalidate large swaths of these many bad laws. Therefore, all else being equal in this race, I am inclined towards Obama. For while he may, as someone astutely noted above, do what the Man wants and not rock the boat, he is able to nominate justices who can and will.

  41. where is this heartland?

    what is this “typical”?

    it sounds lovely!

  42. It doesn’t matter which one of us you vote for. Either your way your planet is doomed.

    Dooooooooomed.

  43. The heartland are the red states. Places where normal, everyday people live not the intellectual, media and political elites who live on the coasts and big corrupt cities.

    You can’t win without the heartland, and Allahmba just can’t win there. Especially not with his race-hustling, poverty-pimping “Reverend” who blames America first.

    The costal elites are in denail and can’t bring themselves to admit John McCain will win in a Reagan-like landslide.

  44. Neil – you’re an idiot

    Pro Lib – I vote that Florida secede again, but this time offer our state back to Spain, as suggested, instead of going with the rest of the southern states into a confederacy. Let’s offer to ransom Hulk Hogan and OJ Simpson back to the US in exchange for the right to leave. Are you with me?

  45. Innominate-

    it’s probably just Dan T/Edward (a coastal-state resident, btw)…

    You know, as a troll job, it’s not bad. just bad timing that it’s on a weekend…

    Neil – “red” you mean like the painted desert? or red as in… well, what? Sounds definitely interesting.

    Are you going to be at THE SHAT’s birthday bash this evening?

  46. Neil,

    I live in Iowa so don’t think Obama can’t win the heartland.

    Just to make it clear I won’t vote for Obama, Hillary,or McCain.

    But I’d rather have Allhamba win then let’s stay in Iraq for the next 100 years McCain.

  47. No Administration apologist here, but “massive erosion”?

    Try not to trip on your overflowing hysteria.

    You might want to scroll down the front page to the “Click on a Link” post.

  48. Hey Neil, I’m a whitey who lives in the reddest of red states (AL) and I voted for Obama! Or do alabamians count as “coastal elites” because of Mobile? In that case, you should know my county borders Tennessee.

  49. far-left radical, angry wife.

    Of whom are we speaking, again?

  50. It isn’t obvious that BHO can win. He’s pretty new to the national scene, and this primary narrowed down to him or the socks lady too fast. The press is too gaga over him and so he’s not getting tested the way he should. I want to see him hung by his feet and shaken to see what comes out of his pockets. The dems need to do that now because the GOP will in August.

  51. John McCain is quite vulnerable. All that his opponents have to do is in a short space of time is to

    * Publicize his connections to the mob through his wife,
    * Get him to lose his temper in public
    * Publicize his intervention to keep his wife from going to prison for embezzlement and violation of prescription drug laws.
    * Publicize some of the tax dodges that he his family engaged in to keep their fortunes.
    * Publicize the persistant rumors that McCain was a compliant prisoner who got special treatment, and I mean the comfy kind.

    The problem for McCain is that his money comes from the biggest alcohol wholesaler in Arizona. In order to prosper in such a heavily regulated industry, McCain’s in-laws have had to behave as criminals, falsifying records, bribing politicians etc.

    Unfortunately, most Americans believe that the laws that in effect mandate that rackets dominate an industry are good and proper ones. McCain’s warmonging and economic ignorance are given a pass basically because people think, wrongly, that he is a n honest, straight talker. Puncture that myth, and he has no chance of getting into the oval office.

  52. Oh, and someone should introcue Eric Dondero to neil. I think they’d become super-best-friends-forever. 😉

  53. Tarran,

    You’re right about all of that, but the media isn’t going to trash McCain. They worked too hard to get him were he is.

  54. Isn’t Richardson from the “Real America”?

  55. Neil doesn’t know things, but he sure does feel them.

  56. Hey joe, can you explain to us how ranting about “jobs being shipped off to China” isn’t just a different version of “those people that don’t look like me are taking my jobs!”?

    Obama rightly spoke out against the former, but seems to endorse the latter.

  57. innominate, if you pull that off I will move back to Florida.

    The idea that the D’s are tearing themselves apart while McCain coasts has some truth to it, but it is a temporary thing because the D’s are not stupid enough to let it drag on too too long.

    Um, yeah they are. Neither canididate is going to admit defeat before the convention, and that would be the only way to avoid a brokered convention. They’ll continue to destroy each other and the Democratic party while the GOP has cookouts and pool parties. It’ll be interesting to see how over it people are by November and what kind of boost that gives McCain.

  58. Art – you bastard. HULK HOGAN

    Er, right. But at different times Lex Luger, Jim Duggan, Kurt Angle and others were the torchbearers of the “All American” gimmick. Kurt Angle was, I believe, the only one to ever put a satirical (negative) spin on it.

  59. …it is a temporary thing because the D’s are not stupid enough to let it drag on too too long.

    The party that could could lose with peace and prosperity backing them up (2000), nominate Mondale and Dukakis, and have Hillary Clinton* as the standard bearer, has repeatedly proven to be stupid enough to fuck up a wet dream.

    *Face it, nobody likes Hillary. Those that clain to are lying.

  60. J sub D-

    If Bill had kept it in his pants Al Gore would have one in a walk. I think theres some residual anger over that and thats part of the reason the party is beginning to dump Hillary.

  61. People always dinged Clinton for being so devoted to polls, but uh, isn’t that sort of like, democracy or something? If the polls show most Americans don’t want the president to do something then maybe he/she shouldn’t.

    Otherwise you wind up with someone who will make decisions based solely on their “principles”, despite what the other 300,000,000 Americans might want to do.

    Just a thought.

  62. No Administration apologist here, but “massive erosion”?

    Do you prefer continuos erosion? Drip, drip, drip …

    That is how we will descend into tyranny. One little thing at a time. Those that are anti-freedom certainly don’t recoil from using hyperbole. Should freedom lovers unilateraly disarm in the rhetoric wars?

  63. Georgia Championship Rasslin was the end all, be all. Period. 🙂

  64. Prefessional wrasslin is like big ole store bought titties. After a while ya realize just how fakey lookin they are and ya lose interest.

  65. Florida isn’t the problem. It’s you people coming down here and sullying our fair state that is the problem. You know who you are.

    You know, it’s funny that Florida has gotten this whole bad rap over an election that was screwed up by a bunch of voters (for which party?) who couldn’t understand a ballot designed by a Supervisor of Elections (from which party again?).

    Yessir, that Karl Rove. What a freaking genius. Steals an election in a state where almost all the election machinery is controlled by the opposition.

  66. correction:

    Make that read, “…over an election that was screwed up by a bunch of voters, in one single county…”

  67. Eh, I guess I’m just not that interested in spending a lot of time following the angles. A lot of the wrestlers, i.e. Chris Jericho, Triple H, Booker T are very entertaining, and the WWE will always be a great “live” spectacle, but my interest kind of waxes and wanes.
    I’m not all ga-ga over wrestling, but nobody can deny its cultural relevance; there was Capt. Lou Albano managing Cyndi Lauper, Roddy Piper in “They Live” and Dwayne Johnson in “Southland Tales”. Mick Foley wrote one of the best memoirs I’ve ever read.
    Also, the similarities between Washington politics and wrestling politics are not lost on me.

  68. For me it was the junkyard dog, grizzly Smith, and the jumping jack.

    I will be the first to admit that ya cain’t go wrong with some midget wrasslin.

    (my bad)….small people wrasslin

  69. bruno sammartino. or bobo brazil.

    now *that* is all-american.

  70. bruno sammartino

    Yeah, but he was born in Italy.

  71. Chuck Norris used to shine Dick the Bruiser’s shoes.

  72. Hey joe, can you explain to us how ranting about “jobs being shipped off to China” isn’t just a different version of “those people that don’t look like me are taking my jobs!”?

    One is about the actions of multinational corporations in control of events, and the other is about powerless people who are not.

    That was remarkably easy.

  73. One talks about jobs, and other about ethnic identity.

    Seriously, Cesar, is this one of those things you have to really work at not getting?

  74. McCain will lose. All signs point to a Democratic sweep (despite their attempts to fuck things up, as usual). If America actually says, “I’ve loved eight years of George Bush-let’s have some more of that!”, then I weep for this country.

  75. Neil | March 22, 2008, 10:47am | #

    The costal elites are in denail and can’t bring themselves to admit John McCain will win in a Reagan-like landslide.

    There will never be a Reagan-like landslide ever again, at least not by a Republican. The states that make up the “Coastal elites” (New York, New Jersey, all of New England, all West Coast states except Alaska) will never vote for a Republican again. Hell, they are busy kicking out almost all of the Republicans who currently serve as governor, in the state legislature, in the House, and in the Senate. The closest thing to a successful Republican in any of those states is Arnie, and he’s not exactly a conservative.

    Now, it is certainly possible that Obama will lose many red states. Wright I think is the excuse that allows white Southerners to be racist and vote against Obama on skin color alone. But that’s not how Obama wins the presidency. Just like no Republicn will win New York or California, no Democrat will win much of the South (if Hillary actually was the nominee, she would win Arkansas, but that’s a special case). Obama wins by picking off states like Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, maybe even Kansas.

  76. Barry is a humorist, and he’s paid to exaggerate. The reality, however, is that Obama is well ahead in the delegate count and unless something goes dramatically awry, he will be the Democratic Party presidential nominee.

  77. “The heartland are the red states. Places where normal, everyday people live not the intellectual.”

    I too live in the “heartland” Please don’t write this again, it makes us all sound like uneducated hicks. By the way in the middle of Missoure, people are not teribly afraid of Obama.

  78. Don’t worry, Neil, no one is going to accuse you of part of any intellectual elite.

  79. One is about the actions of multinational corporations in control of events, and the other is about powerless people who are not.

    No, that doesn’t explain the difference at all. Just because Obama frames it in a way that attempts to make a distinction doesn’t mean there is a difference. His attempt to make that distinction with a straight face takes a certain, well, audacity.

    Here is what Obama said:

    This time we want to talk about the fact that the real problem is not that someone who doesn’t look like you might take your job; it’s that the corporation you work for will ship it overseas for nothing more than a profit.

    He is saying don’t worry about “the corporation you work for” hiring an African-American, worry about “the corporation you work for” hiring a Mexican. He rightly condemns the racist fear that a black person will take your job while stoking the xenophobic fear that a foreigner will. That is, quite honestly, disgraceful. It’s regrettable he chose to sully an eloquent speech with that kind of garbage.

  80. Brian Courts,

    If you aren’t even going to acknowledge the difference between engaging nationalist race-baiting and not engaging in nationalist race baiting, but are going to lump all expressions of economic policy you don’t like under that rubric, then your musings on what is and is not nationalist race-baiting aren’t going to be terribly compelling.

    If YOU want to make a point about race in a discussion about economics – and I’m not opining about whether it’s a fair point or not – then you go on with your bad self.

    But it is profoundly dishonest to accuse someone else of injecting race into an economic discussion when he has done no such thing.

  81. He is saying don’t worry about “the corporation you work for” hiring an African-American, worry about “the corporation you work for” hiring a Mexican.

    No, not even remotely. He is saying “worry about the the corporation you work for closing the factory and moving it somewhere else.”

    The entirely of the racial and ethnic element in your statement comes from your own imagination. YOU want to make the observation that someone else, of a different race, is going to gain a job. Barack Obama never came within 1000 miles of that point.

  82. Joe,

    Obama may not be making the classic racist argument that all these immigrants are stealing are jobs, but he’s still capitalizing on the fear vote which is basically the same thing. If you don’t vote for me all your jobs are going to be shipped to China & Mexico.

  83. Coming to this very late but gotta say this re:

    J sub D | March 22, 2008, 12:22pm | #

    …stupid enough to fuck up a wet dream.

    Thread Winner!!

  84. Obama may not be making the classic racist argument that all these immigrants are stealing are jobs, but he’s still capitalizing on the fear vote which is basically the same thing. If you don’t vote for me all your jobs are going to be shipped to China & Mexico.

    Exactly. Obama’s argument is xenophobic without being explicitly racist. He makes affluent liberals feel comfortable with their prejudices.

  85. Funny thing, though, both Obama and McCain did things this week to remind me why they are both undesirable.

    The conclusion of Obama’s speech on race being the first happenstance when I was reminded of my first instance of finding his rhetoric distasteful during the Iowa campaign, and then McCain’s gaffe in the Middle East.

    The later incident reminded me of the time a month after 9/11 when I was in DC for business and I ran into a Pentagon guy when we were both trying to kill some time. He assured me that there was a connection between Saddam Hussein, and Osama bin Laden. I told him that was highly unlikely as Hussein was a secularist and a socialist both of which bin Laden was vehemently opposed. He weakly informed me something on the lines of , ‘oh, we know.’

    He was probably relying on the same manipulative and corrupt Iraqi exile sources that the Bush administration nut job did when she wrote the book in the 1990’s claiming that Saddam Hussein was behind the Oklahoma City bombings. I have been a skeptic of Iraqi policy since that time in the late 1990’s when someone on Antiwar.com made mince meat of that book.
    I have no idea how up in the chain the guy I was talking to was, he could have been the Pentagon coffee vendor for all I know, but it would not surprise me if it turned out he was an analyst giving the pooch screwing quality of his thinking.

    Which brings me back to my point, the man who corrected McCain’s gaffe was none other than his joined at the hip buddy Senator Lieberman. Last summer Lieberman made me drop a cinnamon roll I was icing while watching Bob Scheiffer when he urged the Bush Administration to conduct strikes on Iran based on some intel claiming those sneaky Persians were supporting actions against our troops. I remember uttering, ‘talk about hurting the troops, dumb ass, Iranian retaliation will really put a hurting on our troops.’

    Anyway there is talk that Lieberman is up for being appointed Secretary of Defense in a McCain Administration. I wonder if the Democratic nominee will link Lieberman and McCain in commercial spots and go back to the Lieberman interview and the incendiary remarks he made. Or will they assume the matter is over the American publics head and try to win on the standard trade xenophobia, evil corporations and Santa Clause policies that tend to get them elected.

  86. Sometimes during my long commute I listen to Sean Hannity for laughs (even though I end up pounding the dashboard in a blind rage). He had a pollster on the other day that said the Dems would beating themselves up, and that they would not survive if they didn’t choose a nominee BEFORE the convention. BEFORE! And all these years, I thought that the purpose of a convention was to choose a nominee. Anyone know what the last convention was to actually choose somebody??

  87. Regional Pro Rasslin’ was a lot more fun before Vince took it national (frickin’ genius.) In my TV market in New England we got some show out of Pittsburg with Bill Cardill as the announcer. Used to see Killer Kowalski, Bruno Sammartino, The Fighting Sicilians (Lou Albano and Tony Altimore) Mr Fuji, Mitsu Arakawa and Turo Tanaka, Haystacks Calhoon, Dick the Bruiser, Coco Brazile and my all time favorite, George “The Animal” Steele. Good times.

  88. A great Pro Wrestler I failed to mention. One of the Top 10 Gimmicks of all time.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQmq5fjTG4o&NR=1

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masaki_Sumitani

  89. Our regional wrestling included Randy “Macho Man” Savage and “Leapin'” Lanny Poffo. There may have been some others but I was little and those are the only ones I remember now.

  90. I grew up when wrestling was already national (due mostly of course to Vince McMahon). A lot of guys like Terry Funk and Mick Foley did stints in Japan and even Africa before or after finding stardom in the U.S.

  91. One is about the actions of multinational corporations in control of events, and the other is about powerless people who are not.

    Multinational corporations do not control the world economy. If Product A can be made cheaper in Country Q than in Country A, then a plant will be built in COuntry Q to make Product A, it will be sold in Country A, and the Product A plant in Country A will close.

    Now, what difference does it make who opens that plant in Country Q? The workers in COuntry A are still out of the business of making Product A.

    The only way to stop this dynamic is to stop international trade.

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