Potomac Primary Thread

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I voted early this morning in this precinct, one of precious few registered Republicans. I'll be watching results and updating this thread, but ace Virginia politics blog Not Larry Sabato predicted an Obama blowout long before the state's polls were closing (at 7).

Anything but a 3-state Obama rout will be a shock, but the late Huckabee momentum should make Virginia and Maryland interesting. There is a very outside chance of Paul doing well in DC.

7:04: Obama wins Virginia in a landslide: Exits show him winning women by 16 points and men by 31 points. The GOP race is too close to call and I'm about to dig into those exits.

So, once again, John McCain won with voters who "strongly disapprove" of the Iraq War with 34 percent of the vote. Ron Paul tied for second with 28 percent–tied, of course, with Mike "we must defend our honor" Huckabee. Ron Paul's best age demographic: 30-39 year olds, with 14 percent. I think someone will soon say (wrongly) that Paul split the anti-McCain vote. Of course, those Paul voters would never vote for anyone less libertarian than von Mises.

If Mike Huckabee loses Virginia narrowly, with thin turnout in the southwest, it will be the second time an ice storm in his strongest area cost him crucial votes. The first time was South Carolina–obviously if he'd beaten McCain there he'd be a frontrunner now. Time to rethink this "God" thing?

7:46: Virginia, unlike a lot of states, offers a district-by-district breakdown of the vote, and it's great for Obama: He's winning all but one district, the conservative white southwestern 9th district. The endorsement by Rep. Rick Boucher did very little for him.

7:55: CNN has massaged its exit polls with some late data and it looks awfully good for Huckabee: There were marginally more male voters than female voters, but McCain only won them by 3 points… Huckabee is up by 6 points among women. Fifty-seven percent of voters were weekly churchgoers and Huckabee won them by 18 points. Most tellingly 72 percent think McCain is mostly likely to beat the Democratic nominee… but Huckabee won 33 percent of those voters. There might be enough of a conservative protest vote to win this one for Huck. Huckabee won voters who considered the campaign ads in their vote even though he only had one ad running–the FairTax ad.

8:01: The District of Columbia goes for Obama, and it's… too close to call for McCain. Wow.

8:49: As I was picking up a friend in the ice storm (the same one that's delayed Maryland poll closings until 9:30), CNN called Virginia for McCain. He will almost certainly win while losing the conservative vote.

9:13: MSNBC (and, I'm assuming, the other networks), have cut to a Hillary Clinton speech in El Paso to punish her for her losses tonight. It's my job to suspend bias and disbelief, but… a political party is considering nominating this candidate? Really? Against John McCain? Really?

9:37: No surprise, Obama and McCain win Maryland—Obama by about the same margin as he did in Virginia, among every voter group, and McCain by a lot better. In his Wisconsin speech Obama refers to "Bush-McCain Republicans".

9:58: One bummer about Maryland extending its polling hours so late: It'll take hours to know who won the murderball primaries in the 1st district (Gilchrest versus Pipkin and Harris) and the 4th district (Edwards versus Wynn). Results are trickling in slowly, slowly here.

10:02: Salt in a Ron Paulian's wound: Obama includes Abraham Lincoln in the list of people who believed that "yes we can."

10:08: Righteous "Ron Paul Republican" Robert Broadus is running second in the 4th district Maryland GOP primary. Fire it up!

NEXT: The Fines Would Have Been Even Higher If It Had Been Copies of the Ron Paul Survival Report

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  1. Well, I proudly voted for Ron Paul. Didn’t even get any funny looks when I asked for a Republican ballot, which is a bit surprising in my district. Va. had this annoying system where the poll workers had to check your name off in both Democratic and Republican log books when you picked up your ballot. Understandable, but quite cumbersome. This is the first dual primary that Va. has had since 1988, since the intervening elections have had one or the other parties be uncontested.

  2. If Not Larry Sabato–whose blogmaster shills for Hillar–predicted its a blowout, its probably a landslide of epic proportions.

  3. 57-65% for Obama in Maryland and Virginia, at least 70% and probably 80% in DC.

  4. This proud patriot son of the United States of America proudly exercised his liberties by casting a vote for Ron Paul, and later heckling the Obama campaign workers outside the polling station.

  5. I was sad to see I could only vote in one primary. I was hoping to vote for Obama afterwards to prove that I am not racist.

  6. Jesse Jackson won the District of Columbia too.

  7. well cnn’s commentators seem pleased with themselves for whatever reason.

  8. I voted for Obama today. The fear of a Hillary planet was just too much to cast a protest vote for Paul.

  9. Shem-

    I did the same.

  10. Wolf Blitzer at 7:00 PM – “Barack Obama wins the democratic presidential nom- primary in the state of virginia.”

  11. There is a very outside chance of Paul doing well in DC.

    Pun intended? 🙂

  12. My little sister (the one who took me to Monticello last week) voted Ron Paul. She wrote, “Vote for Constitutional Integrity, Vote Ron Paul!” on her little Volvo wagon’s windows and then ran around Charlottesville on errands. I’m not sure Ron Paul needed more ads on the road though; his signs were the only ones I saw there.

    She’s not expecting a win but she didn’t want to throw away her vote and she wanted to make a statement. Of course, I’ll have to call her with the results-her TV is permanently tuned to Backyardigans.

  13. Shem, Cesar-

    Interesting!

  14. “There is a very outside chance of Paul doing well in DC.”

    Sure, there are not that many registered Republicans in DC anyhow.

  15. What big states are left after today? Texas? Anything else?

  16. Democrats have Wisconsin and Hawaii (Obama’s birthplace) next.

    Then in March Texas and Ohio which Hillary has to win big.

  17. Then in March Texas and Ohio which Hillary has to win big.

    Darn it!

    Obama was born in HI? Not Kansas? Or is his mom from Kansas? This guy is all over the map.

  18. My vision of Hell is if it Texas and Ohio don’t prove conclusive. There are 6 weeks from Mar 11th (Mississippi) to Apr 22nd (Pennsylvania) with no other states voting. I expect them both to camp out here in PA, with robocalls out the wazoo, their faces plastered on every TV screen, and their empty promises blasting out of every radio for a solid month and a half.

  19. Then in March Texas and Ohio which Hillary has to win big.

    I had swallowed the conventional wisdom that Hillary was unbeatable in the primaries. I don’t know what the odds are in Vegas, but 50/50 seems about right to me.

    Go Obama! Go! I want Bill to gracefully retire and become an elder statesman that is above politics. Gerald Ford would be somebody for him to emulate. America could use a break.

  20. “those Paul voters would never vote for anyone less libertarian than von Mises.”

    Then why are they voting for Paul? Paul who thinks peacefull people should be stopped from crossing an invisible line?

  21. James B. –

    I’m sooo glad it was over early in Michigan. I just sit back and watch. Just regular stupid ads on TV, no political MegaStupid ads.

  22. Paul is beating Mitt right this moment. Who would have imagined that happen! In Virginia! I knew Paul can beat Mitt. 😉

  23. The circus is coming to Ohio? damn, we’ve been sheltered so far….

  24. Maryland has such a weird looking map.

  25. Wow, that NLS site is a hoot. Never seen it before.

    My favorite so far:

    (paraphrasing and summarizing)
    It is a conspiracy of VDOT/Federal Highways Administration, Gov Kaine, and God to close down the mixing bowl (I-395/I-95/Beltway Springfield-Franconia merge)

    because (now quoting)

    This is really just as bad as denying women the right to vote today- that many Hillary voters are being held from the polls.

  26. Maryland polls have just been extended until 9:30 due to weather.

  27. I cast my vote in DC for Paul so you got one at least.

  28. Kolohe-

    Ben Tribbett, the blogmaster at NLS, used to be a pretty good political analyst/prognosticator if a bit of a Team Blue cheerleader at times.

    But since his girl Hillary has faltered this year, hes gone off the deep end. Hes nuts now.

  29. I’m not even going to pay attention to any more primaries, not when season 2 of Jericho starts tonight @10pm EST on CBS. That’s worth watching.

  30. I expected Clinton to do well in Southwest, but I’m shocked Obama is winning the CDs of the Shenandoah Valley. They’re pretty white and conservative.

  31. Yeah, a lot of those VA voters can be seen deadlocked in traffic outside my window right now. Traffic was horrible. On the Republican side I think it hurts McCain.

    If it does hurt McCain watch all the Huckabee voters to say it was an act of God. I have at least seen over at Townhall and Hotair supporters who think God is trying to sway the Republican Nomination at the last minute to Huckabee. Guess he’s a procrastinator.

  32. I supposed no one noticed the Senate passage of the Warrantless Wiretapping bill today. The Dodd has failed us yet again!

  33. Are people that hesitant to vote for McCain, or is Huckabee that likable among so many GOP primary voters? If the former is true, how to explain these polls that have him running neck and neck with HRC and slightly trailing Obama?

  34. J sub D,

    If you can find anyone willing to give you 50/50 on the Democratic race, bet your house on Obama. The race was 50/50 after Super Tuesday, but Obama is trading at above 70 now on Intrade, meaning that a bet of $70 will only yield $100 if he wins the nomination. (I knew that was coming last week, too, but no funds to bet. Breaks my heart. Although I didn’t expect him to be above 60-65 by now.)

  35. The obvious guess, I’d say, is independents… and probably moderates in general. In public perception at least, McCain and Obama are positioned closer to the centre than their rivals are, which probably accounts for the head-to-head projections. It’s tough to win a national election if you only carry the base.

  36. CNN just called Virginia for McCain, although it still looks pretty damn close. I guess they think they know something about the precincts that haven’t reported.

  37. I supposed no one noticed the Senate passage of the Warrantless Wiretapping bill today. The Dodd has failed us yet again!

    68-39. Not much that he could do to stop it.

  38. “CNN just called Virginia for McCain, although it still looks pretty damn close. I guess they think they know something about the precincts that haven’t reported.”

    Just like they knew something about Florida’s Western counties in 2000.

  39. On the CNN McCain Call:

    If the CNN county results are as up to date as the front page summary, the large urban/suburban counties (e.g. Farifax) that have less than 50% reported are heavily going to McCain and will overwhelm the rural counties that have not reported yet that will go for Huckabee (e.g. Buena Vista)

  40. Clinton’s deputy campaign manager is out.

    Hillary, you can fire everybody in sight and it won’t help. Face it, you not likeable enough.

    Does anyone remember a meltdown of similar proportions? She was a favorite for two years, had party support, bundles of cash, fawning press coverage, and she’s getting her Wellesley ass handed to her on a platter.

    Maybe Al Gore was right. Having Bubba campaign for you doesn’t seem to help.

  41. You said:

    Of course, those Paul voters would never vote for anyone less libertarian than von Mises.

    Ah, too late. If they voted for Paul they already voted for someone less libertarian Mises. Ludwig supports immigration, Paul doesn’t.

  42. “Does anyone remember a meltdown of similar proportions?”

    Guiliani?

    I know, he didn’t fall from quite as high as Clinton seems to be doing, but it was highly entertaining nonetheless.

  43. Don’t count her out just yet. Remember when everyone said she was toast after Iowa?

  44. Hillary, you can fire everybody in sight and it won’t help. Face it, you not likeable enough.

    Can you imagine having that job? Making people outside the echo chamber like her enough to pull the lever? I’d just as soon shove bamboo splinters into my eyes.

    Yeah, you’re not winning by a landslide because of your staff. They just aren’t getting your message out!

    Gobama!

  45. It just occurred to me that Obama will certainly win the Dem nomination for the simple reason that many repub would not want either McCain (to allow for a better repub in 2012) win or Hillary because they (1) hate her guts, and (2) see that Obama has better chances of messing things up in the country (and would be easier to beat in 2012 than Hillary) and allow for their kind of candidate in 2012. In fact, I think he will win the whole thing.

    I am basing this on the fact that many repubs voted dem in Virginia today.

    Am I a genius or What? Did someone think of this scenario before?

  46. “I know, he didn’t fall from quite as high as Clinton seems to be doing, but it was highly entertaining nonetheless.”

    Sad I think, he probably lost the Republican nod because he wasn’t a xenophobe and he didn’t hate gay people. Those seem to be requirements in the Republican party.

  47. One of the NRO dudes is voting for Paul in DC, I read.

  48. I want Bill to gracefully retire and become an elder statesman that is above politics.

    Bill will never be above anything. We’re talking about a guy who perjured himself over banging a fat chick, for crying out loud.

    -jcr

  49. I wonder if the dynamic in Virginia today is a little bit of the reverse as that in NH

    NH ind voted for McCain vice Obama because McCain need them more at the time -> hence McCain victory and Clinton ‘upset’

    VA ind voted for Obama vice McCain because Obama needed them more at the time -> hence Obama victory and close to Huckabee upset.

    Tough theory to prove because only the Dem exit polls show party affiliation (31% of VA Dem primary voters were self declared ind or republicans) and the NH polls everyone knows are all jacked up.

  50. McCain & Obama victories in MD called by CNN right at the close of the polls

  51. So, two points about Hillary Clinton.

    1) Can we, finally, put to bed the “Hillary Clinton owns the Democratic Party” thing? It was never anything but a way to put down the Democratic Party (by making look just as sleazy and elitist as the Republican Party) and demean Hillary Clinton in case of a victory (by denying that she could actually compete on her own merits). And the “Liberal Media is going to shill for her” thing – are you effing kidding me? Did the people who were saying that live in this country between 1992 and the present?

    2) Now we have to put to bed the “Hillary Clinton is dead” thing. That’s HILLARY CLINTON. She ran the most flawless campaign in memory for a solid year. She stopped Barack Obama – a melanin-rich combination of JFK and Ronald Reagan – and his momentum cold after Iowa. She is a very, very good politician and candidate. If she was a pitcher, she’d have great stuff – just not as good as Barack Obama. She could still win this race if Obama doesn’t watch himself.

  52. Well… as an Ohio person… I’ll say for at least the Cleveland area (ungodly heavy blue, FFS, Kucinich is from here)… from the buzz I’m hearing and from the early rallies held (several months ago), I’ll call at least the Cleveland Metro area for Obama.

    Nephilium

  53. Joe-

    If Clinton wins the nomination through a combination of super delegates and having the MI and FL delegates seated, she DOES own the party because thats nothing more than stealing the election. If she gracefully concedes to respect the will of the voters I will eat my hat.

  54. Hey, Paul voters:

    There is no such thing as throwing away your vote, if you vote for someone you truly believe in. Take it from someone whose great, big brain managed to talk him into voting for his second-choice candidate in 2000 (Ralph Nader) over his first choice because of something something something I can’t remember about gaming the political system: so-called “strategic voting” is a stupid idea.

    Make your voice heard. Vote your conscience. It advances what you truly believe in, and makes America a better country.

  55. You’re half right, Cesar:

    If Hillary Clinton wins the nomination through a combination of super-delegates and seating delegates from the Michigan and Florida early primaries (as opposed to winning the primary campaign from here on out), she will have done so because of her “ownership” of the party, but

    If that doesn’t happen, you will have to eat your hat, whether she is gracious about it or not.

  56. Joe, conceding by Hillary Clinton her lifelong dream and ambition to what she sees as an upstart like Barack Obama will make her gracious in my book. It would also be pretty out-of-character for her which is why I think it won’t happen.

  57. @joe

    The fact is Ron Paul never had a chance. Hillary does and she is evil. I caucused for Obama to prevent Hillary from gaining the white house. That vote is a hell of a lot more useful than a vote for Ron Paul will ever be.

  58. She stopped Barack Obama – a melanin-rich combination of JFK and Ronald Reagan – and his momentum cold after Iowa.

    Apparently not cold enough.

  59. To put it another way–if Hillary opts not to attempt to obtain the nomination through superdelegates and/or seating the disqualified Florida and Michigan delegates, this whole thing would be the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.

  60. Hillary’s young, Cesar. Eight more years in the Senate, or as VP, she enters the next nominating contest as even more of a front-runner as she was in the Autumn of 2007.

  61. Amen, yoshi! I did the same.

  62. Again, why so close between Huckabee and Mccain? McCain unpopular, or Huckabee so good (in their eyes)?

    I’m for Obama. HRC is a bad candidate, and Barak continues to impress…

  63. yoshi,

    Your one vote isn’t going to make a dime’s worth of difference between Hillary and Obama.

    But what Ron Paul’s trying to do – stay in the race and keep getting his message out, and rack up a vote total that shows him to be a legitimate also-ran rather than a novelty candidate – that’s an area where a small segment of the electorate could make a difference.

    As an Obama supporter (my third choice, actually), I should be encouraging all of you Dem-curious, anti-war libertoids to vote in the Democratic primary for Obama, shouldn’t it? Well, I’m not.

  64. A big LOL at 9:54, Cesar!

  65. joe-can you really see her taking the position as VP, given her personality? Can you see Obama offering it to her, given A) what Bill said about him and B) the fact that she doesn’t give him anything he can’t get elsewhere with much less baggage?

  66. Whereas Hillary is an estrogen-rich combination of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon…

  67. If you really like Obama and dislike Hillary, and that’s what really speaks to you this year, and liking Ron Paul is a second-order consideration for you, then you go on with your bad self; vote for Barack Obama.

    But if you want to vote for Paul, and being part of the rLOVEution is something that matters to you (even after the newsletters) do it. You’ll feel like you did the right thing in a year, and in 30 years.

  68. Mr. Nice Guy, I agree that HRC is a bad candidate but I have to ask . . . Barack Obama is a very good speaker who would make Toastmasters proud. But his speaches are so vauge that he seems to be deliberately avoiding stating what he actually believes in. Do most of his supporters know his stances on actual issues or are they just impressed with his speaking skills? Just asking . . . .

  69. On Clinton is toast-

    MCain’s campaign was also calling for the crash cart, but..

    .. that was in July 07, and only recovered in Dec ’07/ Jan ’08 – Clinton does not nearly have that kind of time

    Clinton was called toast after Iowa and redeemed after NH, but

    …we’re in the second half now. With the prop rep of all dem races, it beomes harder for Clinton to overcome a continuing string of Obama victories. I saw somewhere that MSNBC goatee dude said that TX/OH need to be won by Clinton with at least 60% of the vote to get back even in pledged delegates.

    I think a victory by Clinton with the superdelegates will not rend the democrats apart, as long as the pledge delegates are close enough.

    However, if Clinton wins by seating the FL/MI delegates as is, (noises she has been making since the day of those contests), McCain is in the oval office.

  70. Shem,

    Are you asking me whether I think two professional politicians will get over the heat of a campaign in order to 1) win the presidential election for their party and 2) set up the loser to be the winner’s successor, I have to say “Oh hell yeah they will.”

  71. Whereas Hillary is an estrogen-rich combination of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon..

    I’m late, crymethink. Has the thread been called yet?

  72. McCain is now talking the libertarianish talk in his speech… but…

  73. To put it another way–if Hillary opts not to attempt to obtain the nomination through superdelegates and/or seating the disqualified Florida and Michigan delegates, this whole thing would be the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.

    If she does try to get the nom by those means, she’s screwed in November when the black vote stays home. Not that that means she won’t try it; it depends on whether her political sense prevails over her gargantuan hubris.

  74. Obama would be insane to offer her the VP. He should pick Brad Henry, Mike Easley, or even Lincoln Chafee before her.

  75. crimethink- What happened? Why are you using your real name? Was it Dondero, too? He managed only to get my last name. I can’t believe he pressured into to disclosing the whole thing! You crimethink, of all people?

  76. MNG:
    Huckabee and McCain is so close because of turnout.

    Anti-McCain people are animated (and believe in miracles, but also that God helps those who help themselves).

    Pro-McCain people have been told for a week or so that this thing is in the bag.

    So the former show up in greater numbers than their actual distribution

  77. joe-But assuming that Obama can close the deal and get the nomination without having to make that deal, what could be possibly gain by doing it after the fact? Are there any Democrats that will support Hillary but not Obama? I just don’t see what Obama has to gain from it.

  78. joe-
    Of course Hillary and Obama will work together, regardless of whom wins, unless something unimaginable happens to alienate them.

    The threshold of alienation of their respective supporters is much lower; look at Donna Brazille (sp?)

  79. Ali,

    I got crymethink so wound up he clicked on the wrong name when Windows filled in the field for him.

    I’m not sure, but I think it had something to do with the Democrats.

  80. joe,

    Hmm, that assertion might not be true post-menopause. I also might note that your prediction about Hillary threatening again makes me want to put a comma three letters deep in my email address…

  81. Jesus God McCain is terrible compared to Obama…

    Look behind Obama, you will see hundreds of young people…

    Behind McCain, are twelve GOP stalwarts…

    Yuk…

    I like McCain, I’ve defended him many times here…

    But Jesus that sucked…

  82. Hillary Clinton has a lot of advantages for Obama.

    1) It unifies the party after a tough primary.

    2) God forbid something happens to President Obama, she knows her way around the West Wing the first hour she takes the oath. I know it’s not actual Presidential experience, but she’s not going to have to learn how the phones work either, ya know?

    3) She’d make a great – I mean great – attack dog during the campaign, which is the traditional role of the running mate, and

    4) The Klan wouldn’t shoot him.

  83. Joe, Obama wants to go for the “unifier” message. Hillary Clinton won’t help him with that.

    A souther white governor would, however.

  84. Ali,

    joe is correct, it was a mistake at first. But I feel freer now, using my full name. Maybe I’ll get credit for coming up with the next word I invent.

    It also helps that I don’t show up on any of the first ten pages of a googling of my name. Safety in numbers is a wonderful thing…

  85. I’m sorry, but if HRC can’t win Virginia, then she sucks, big time….She’s the victim, big time, of a concerted attack against her (foolish if you ask me, because Obama is running to the left of her), but she is just not a viable candidate…She’s gotta go, or we will have four more years of wars and Alito’s…

  86. What happens to McCain when the people that are driving him to victory* find out he doesn’t agree with them. And by not agrees, I mean he’s the candidate furthest from their views.

    * He keeps dominating the “Disagrees with the war” Republican voters.

  87. crimethink- Congratulations on your freedom! I did not know that you played music. 😉

  88. Obama is too smart to pick Hillary for a running mate. He doesn’t want to commit suicide in Fort Marcey Park.

  89. VP Joe Biden. Experienced, smart, white, male and frank.

  90. I hear you on the white southern governor, Cesar. I really do.

    But this could be 1932. This could be 1984. I don’t think Obama has to think about stealing a state to squeak out a victory.

    Chris Potter,

    The modern world is set up to encourage us to dehumanize other people. I don’t like it. I try to make myself speak to the person on the other end of the speaker at the drive though like I was talking to somebody’s daughter. It’s hard. It takes a deliberate effort. You have to try to make yourself.

    Chris.

  91. Bill Richardson would make a good running mate.

  92. God forbid something happens to President Obama, she knows her way around the West Wing the first hour she takes the oath.

    I’m sure Hillary would say “God forbid” also. I’m not sure that she’d mean it. Thus, a reason NOT to have her as VP…

  93. VP Joe Biden. Experienced, smart, white, male and frank.

    I still confuse Biden with the other guy who ran for president with gray hair. Either case, yes, Obama needs someone who looks older and wiser and some gray hair will certainly not hurt.

  94. It unifies the party after a tough primary.

    The party will unify regardless. It’s not like any Democrat is going to vote for McCain, and they’re so angry at this point that I can’t really see them staying home because of a setback.

    God forbid something happens to President Obama, she knows her way around the West Wing the first hour she takes the oath. I know it’s not actual Presidential experience, but she’s not going to have to learn how the phones work either, ya know?

    This is what a staff is for, to hold the new guy’s hand until he or she gets it down. It doesn’t add that much unless the entire White House dies with Obama, in which case we’ve got bigger problems than the VP trying to settle into the role.

    She’d make a great – I mean great – attack dog during the campaign, which is the traditional role of the running mate

    This is actually a very good point. She would be fantastic at this, as long as she keeps her husband (who seems to have become a crotchety old man) away from microphones. Still in all, she wouldn’t be indispensable in this either.

    The Klan wouldn’t shoot him.

    You mean because they hate her more? Guess I can’t argue with that, though I don’t think it’s a good rationale…

    Still don’t see what she offers that he can’t get elsewhere.

  95. James B.,

    Don’t forget the Wyoming Democratic primary (March 8th?).

  96. Richardson=perfect for HRC, terrible for Obama.

    Obama would do well to pick another young, well liked politician…Is Evan Bahy still around?

  97. Oh, Jeebus, not Bayh! He wouldn’t do that. Would he?

    No, I don’t think Obama can pick a pro-Iraq War running mate, unless it’s Hillary.

  98. Ali,

    Also, I got a fellowship offer today from your alma mater’s mortal enemy to the northwest.

    Still not sure if I want to go there, though.

  99. Let’s face it, too, Ron Paul, who had some money (impressive) did really, really terrible tonight…

    He had money, he had dedicated cadres, what could he have done differently?

    I tend to think it is that the pro-war forces in the GOP just worked very hard to not make it happen…But I am no expert…

    Jesus HRC is terrible…She pushes on TX and anti-Bush, but when it was crucial she gave Bush what she asked for…

  100. Actually, I think Richardson would be a decent choice given his foreign policy experience. He could shut McCain up when he tries to portray himself as the experienced candidate.

  101. Hey Chris! Congratulations! It is a great place. Enjoy it if you decide to go for it.

  102. Here is an idea – not going to happen but it would be funny – Al Gore for HRC’s running mate. They might be able to resuse some of the old bumber stickers.

  103. He had money, he had dedicated cadres, what could he have done differently?

    He could have pushed his cadres to do the actual work of getting out the vote. Signs and spectacle are nice, but they don’t win people over the way that going door-to-door and talking to people does.

    Though he did have a tremendous handicap going in.

  104. McCain has more experience, in the eyes of many, than Richardson does…

  105. He had money, he had dedicated cadres, what could he have done differently?

    Nothing. Ron Paul has a hard ceiling on his support, and it varies greatly by region.

    He does poorly in both the mid-Atlantic and the South.

    He got 25% in Montana!

  106. Bill Shneider, he is smart.

    Whover that gal, is, God I’d like to bend her over and abuse her…

  107. McCain is a lackluster speaker. If I had $1 for every time he says “my friends” I’d be a wealthy man.

  108. Shem,

    Richardson is great on paper, but he’s a bit of a fuck-up. I say this as somebody who was planning to vote for him, during that brief period after Dodd dropped out and before Richardson dropped out.

    PIRS, any Democrat fortunate enough to win the nomination would sell his soul to get Al Gore to sign on as his running mate, but it isn’t going to happen. The nomination was his for the asking and he turned it down. Why would he be somebody’s running mate? Some kid?

  109. Obama got game.

    Hillary got not no game. McCain got no game.

    You know who has game? Mike Huckabee.

  110. joe-if Huckabee had Romney money, he’d be the frontrunner…

  111. MNG if he hated Mexicans more that would help too.

  112. joe-HRC has got connections, but I agree, absolutely no game…

  113. Whoever thought little RI (the smallest state in the Union) could actually be pivotal in the primaries.

  114. Jesus Christ why would anyone vote for HRC now? Texas or not

  115. Hillary’s running mate was gonna be Mark Warner probably, Obama should just steal him.

  116. MNG-

    They wouldn’t. But Billary will twist the arms of the Superdelegates then talk about how they REALLY CARE about the VOICE of the PEOPLE in Florida and Michigan. /HRC Voice

  117. Mark Warner has a sure thing for Senate and he will not blow it by choosing between HRC and Obama in VA (if he had to he would choose Obama)

  118. nm hes running for senate, but he would have been perfect.

  119. you are certainly right joe
    from a politics as spectator sport perspective it is a shame we likely won’t get a Huck/Obama match up.

  120. Mark Warner would be a great choice, but I think Howard Dean will prevail upon Obama to let him take the second Virginia Senate seat.

    Cesar, they have to stage another round of primaries or caucuses in Florida and Michigan. Because you know what? That “voice of the people” bit that Bubba would do – he’s got a point.

    The DNC’s point was that they couldn’t have a contest early in the calender. If they schedule March or April contests, that’s the point of the DNC’s enforcement action.

    I think Obama will win Michigan, but Hillary would win Florida. If it’s proportional delegates, it won’t make much of a difference.

    Really, that’s the best solution here.

  121. I was one of the Ron Paul supporters in VA who voted for Obama. Had I voted in one of the super tuesday states or earlier, Ron Paul would have surely gotten my vote. But after I got his email about him more or less “giving up” I decided that my goal would be to prevent John McCain from becoming the next president, and Barack stacks up better against him than HRC (and I could never in good faith vote for her).

  122. His email got ya, mike, but you were okay with the newsletters. Fuck!

  123. Once its clear someone has given up I don’t see any point on voting for them. I don’t like the Huck, but at least the dumb bastard still thinks he’s got a shot.

  124. i also live in virginia and voted for ron paul. i even got my mother to vote for him …not because she likes him but she didn’t like mccain or huckabee but because she didn’t like mccain or huckabee that much she knew knew it’d be mccain but cause she knew her vote didn’t matter so she wasted it on him. i love my mother. 🙂

  125. Through my efforts I am confident that I got at least 3-4 people to vote for RP in MI, back when it mattered. After the super tuesday letdown and RP giving up the fight, I figured I should do what’s the best action at this time.

    Besides, hopefully denying victory to McCain by 5% in the general election will convince the republicans that they need to get back to their roots

  126. I think Clinton is a bad choice for an Obama running mate. I don’t think this because he needs to take a white southern governor to peel off a state (though that might be a decent thing to try, and a moderate governor, southern or no, might be a decent choice for him). Rather I think she’s a bad choice because she may be the only potential running mate who is hated so much that having her as a running mate might actually hurt Obama. One of Obama’s big strengths is that he isn’t divisive; a Clinton choice as his VP would severely damage that impression.

    As far as the relative strengths of the Candidates, I agree that both Obama and Huckabee are great campaigners and speakers. Unfortunately for Huckabee, I don’t think he’s a very good general election candidate, even if he does run (and I’m pretty sure he’s the antichrist, a concept I don’t even believe in). McCain is not such a good speaker, but he is a good general election candidate – if this were any other year than after the end of the Bush messes or he were facing anyone but Obama, he’d probably win. Clinton is neither a good speaker nor a good general election candidate – if McCain is maybe the only Republican that has a chance to win President in 2008, she may be almost the only serious Democrat who could lose it. Obama has a ton of stuff going for him and seems to possess almost every trait a politician needs.

    Oh, I’m gonna risk new predictions:

    Obama wins both the nomination and the general. He also wins Virginia and maybe a few more southern states; Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Iowa, and Kansas; Colorado, New Mexico and possibly a few other western states; he wins every Gore or Kerry blue state. He loses West Virginia, though.

  127. It just occurred to me that Obama will certainly win the Dem nomination for the simple reason that many repub would not want either McCain (to allow for a better repub in 2012) win or Hillary because they (1) hate her guts, and (2) see that Obama has better chances of messing things up in the country (and would be easier to beat in 2012 than Hillary) and allow for their kind of candidate in 2012. In fact, I think he will win the whole thing.

    I am basing this on the fact that many repubs voted dem in Virginia today.

    Am I a genius or What?

    What. I mean, you’re not a genius. You’re right, and it doesn’t take a genius to see that.

    However, I don’t see Obama as messing up the country over 4 years so much. I do view him as less competent than “The Billary” (as David Brudnoy referred to them), but I think that’ll mean he accomplishes less in the way of damage than the Billary or McCain would. What I’m hoping is that that will result in Democrats still feeling stuck with Obama but Republicans turning him out as incompetent in 4 years, at which time the age factor and the loser’s taint will weigh more heavily on McCain. But will it be Huckabee or Paul in ’12?

    Meanwhile, foreigners must be really amused the way USAns sympathetic to or even members of one major political party get to take a hand in nominating the other party’s POTUS candidate.

  128. All three Republican candidates in the Maryland 4th are Ron Paul supporters. Maybe the Free State Project should relocate.

  129. Word on the street is that Obama’s running mate is going to be a relative of a man who made a huge enthusiastic deal with him. That running mate is Patrick Kennedy. A black man and a Kennedy in the White House…do you want to talk about a way to unite that party?

    And my money is that Hillary picks Bayh.

  130. HUGE NEWS!!!

    Anti-War Republican incumbent Congressman Wayne Gilchrist of Maryland HAS BEEN DEFEATED!!!

    Conservative, Pro-War in Iraq primary challenger Andy Harris was crushed the Ron Paul ally 44% to 32%.

    Libertarian-leaning Club for Growth was heavily involved in the race supporting Harris.

    Word on the street is that they will now turn their attentions to knocking off the two remaining members of the tiny Anti-War fringe of the House GOP: Ron Paul and Walter Jones.

  131. A look at all the libertarian websites and blogs this morning shows not a single one talking about the Wayne Gilchrist crushing defeat. Nothing up on Reason.com. Liberty Papers, Knappster, Third Party Watch, Nolan Chart, predictably ignore the story.

    For the full story on Gilchrist’s crushing defeat: http://www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com

  132. Obama/Clinton isn’t likely: she wants to be president, not VP.
    I’d like to see Obama/Richardson; he’s a moderate with foreign policy experience and an inclination towards efficient government. And he’d help in the West. I’m not sure the usual rules about getting a Southerner apply here; Obama himself plays pretty well in the South.

  133. There is more to be excited about than the Obama victory last night for Democrats….The Netroots successfully ran a primary challenger in Maryland and threw a Bush-Democrat out of a job! Rep. Donna Edwards defeated Al Wynn…by 20+ pts.may every other Democat or Republican who supports Bush meet such a brutal end!

  134. Speaking as a Ron Paul supporter in Texas, I’m afraid I feel the need to vote against HRC more than I feel the need to bump up Ron Paul’s vote take, so I’ll be voting Obama come March 4th (and probably convincing my family to do likewise) so that the fall candidates are that less distasteful.

  135. Word on the street is that they will now turn their attentions to knocking off the two remaining members of the tiny Anti-War fringe of the House GOP: Ron Paul and Walter Jones.

    So we’ve heard, Eric. So when are you reenlisting to fight in this never-ending war you love so much?

    I, for one, cannot wait until Obama wins, burns the feckless Bush Doctrine , and pulls our troops out of that hell hole.

  136. “Word on the street is that they will now turn their attentions to knocking off the two remaining members of the tiny Anti-War fringe of the House GOP: Ron Paul and Walter Jones.”

    The Republicans obviously didn’t learn from the 2006 election that the public is sick of their wars. Will it finally sink in when Obama rips them a new one in 2008?

  137. “Speaking as a Ron Paul supporter in Texas, I’m afraid I feel the need to vote against HRC more than I feel the need to bump up Ron Paul’s vote take, so I’ll be voting Obama come March 4th (and probably convincing my family to do likewise) so that the fall candidates are that less distasteful.”

    I’ve decided to do the same thing.

  138. “Obama himself plays pretty well in the South.”

    He did well against Hillary in the South by taking most of the blacks away from her. The question is how well will he do in the general election in the South, which always goes for the Republican nowadays.

  139. I want Bill to gracefully retire and become an elder statesman that is above politics.

    And I want a pony for Christmas. We’ll see which happens first.

    Hillary’s young, Cesar. Eight more years in the Senate, or as VP, she enters the next nominating contest as even more of a front-runner as she was in the Autumn of 2007.

    Obama would have to be a drooling idiot to pick her for his running mate. Aside from the fact that she can’t deliver any marginal states and revs up the Republican base even as VP, he would be inviting 4 years of constant undercutting and upstaging.

    I don’t know how more Senate time helps her. If she loses this time, then the Clintons will have lost their biggest asset – the perception that they are the bosses of the party. Their landline to the big money donors will be in tatters, their grip on party hackdom greatly weakened. Bill’s already tarnished his halo, and all Hillary ever had going for her was her marriage to Bill and reputation for ruthlessness. Nobody likes a ruthless loser.

  140. how on earth does McCain win over such a large number of people on the anti-war side? What don’t I understand here…

  141. That’s amazing, Dondero. It’s 2008, and the Republicans are purging their party of people who take the anti-war position held by 2/3 of the American public.

    What’s the difference between Andy Harriss, and Donna Edwards? Donna Edwards is going to the Capitol next January. Thanks, Maryland GOP!

  142. “Hillary’s young, Cesar. Eight more years in the Senate, or as VP, she enters the next nominating contest as even more of a front-runner as she was in the Autumn of 2007.”

    Is Hillary young? She’ll be sixty-one in October. If she misses out this time and seeks the nomination in eight years time, she’ll be pushing seventy.

  143. KB,

    Most people have been brought up to believe that they need governemnt officials. Just like a woman whose lived all her live being beaten by men and who as a result tolerates the beatings instead of fighting back, most people continue to vote for somebody who will hurt them less than all the other alternatives, since the notion of exiting the absuive relationship with the ruling class is too much outside their comfort zone.

    That’s why I write NOTA for all the offices on the ballot. McCain and hillary are dangerous because each overstates the depth of their support. In truth msot people will vote Democrat in the geenral election not because they supprot the Democrat, but because they fear the Republican. Conversely, most voters who vote Republican will be doing the same thing.

    By voting for “None of the above” you diminish all the candidates. A Hillary Clinton who wins with 25% of the vote is a lot less dangerous than a john Mccain with 51% of the vote. Similarly a John McCain with 25% of the vote is far less dangerous than, oh hell, McCain is quite dangerous because he acts like one who has deluded himself into beleiving that he is a man of principle.

    But, most people are unable to take the risk of livign without an abusive man in their lives, so voters keep electing people into governmental offices.

  144. “If she misses out this time and seeks the nomination in eight years time, she’ll be pushing seventy.”

    If McCain wins, she can run again in 4 years. I suspect she and Bill will do everything they can, surreptitiously ofcourse, to make certain Obama loses the election.

  145. “how on earth does McCain win over such a large number of people on the anti-war side?”

    The argument I read somewhere is that people remember him receiving lots of Democrat and independent votes in 2000 against Bush. Since Bush is viewed as being pro-war, then since Democrats voted for McCain over Bush, he must be anti-war. In that McCain is going to be running on a pro-war platform, lots of people when they hear his pro-war speeches will want their vote back.

  146. “Obama would have to be a drooling idiot to pick her for his running mate. Aside from the fact that she can’t deliver any marginal states and revs up the Republican base even as VP, he would be inviting 4 years of constant undercutting and upstaging.”

    Also, he would have to sleep with a gun under his pillow.

  147. McCain has support from Democrats and independents because of the reasoning “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

    They hate Bush so much, just the fact that McCain has tussled with Bush a few times makes him attractive as a candidate. Once they actually figure out where he stands they will realize how insane that reasoning is and will vote for Clinton/Obama.

  148. “He did well against Hillary in the South by taking most of the blacks away from her.”

    Yes, the general election is different. But consider a few things. First, voter turnout among blacks will be higher than usual when we have a black candidate who actually addresses black issues. In 2004 Bush actually did fairly well among blacks and Latinos; the Democrats took minority votes for granted, with predictable results. Second, Obama does as well as Clinton among southern whites. Third, southern Republicans who supported Huckabee might possibly defect if McCain is the nominee; Obama is good at talking about religion. So a few traditionally red states might turn blue this fall.

  149. “a few traditionally red states might turn blue this fall.”

    It’s ok with me if it keeps McCain out of the White House and keeps us from going to war in Iran as McCain seems so keen on doing.

    Obama has Brzinski as his foreign policy advisor and Brzinski is very opposed to involving us in war in Iran.

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