Obama-Clinton Gets More Interesting

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Barack Obama's fundraising has surged since the Iowa caucuses; Hillary Clinton's has stayed steady but lagged behind. Her solution:

Late last month Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million. The loan illustrates Sen. Clinton's commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation.

It's a hell of a start to a six-day period where she could lose as many as seven primaries. On Saturday, Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana go to the polls. Washington is a caucus where Obama is favored by 20 points, Nebraska is another one of those flyover caucuses that Obama dominated last night, and Louisiana, even post-Katrina, has one of the biggest black electorates in the country. On Sunday there's Maine, on Tuesday there's D.C., Virginia, and Maryland. Clinton has signaled only that she'll compete for Virginia and Maine. The Politico's Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen say she should be worried:

She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.

At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone.

One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.

That's the key fact for the Democrats. Clinton can still win, but she badly needed to run up the score on Super Tuesday—it was literally impossible for Obama to make a presence in 22 states over nine days, so her old, national favorability among Democrats helped her break the Obama wave in some states. As the Democrats move on both will have time to hold multiple rallies and town halls in every state. There's one week from the D.C.-Virginia-Maryland primary to Wisconsin. There are two weeks from there to Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.

As to the GOP race… I have a column coming later about the immigration issue and the GOP, but this map tells most of the story. It's the way California Republicans voted, Mitt Romney in green, John McCain in brown. Romney carried no counties south of Fresno.

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  1. According to the map you have a link for Rudy beat Paul in terms of popular vote. Ouch. I don’t mean to pile on to Ron Paul, I am just saying that it is kind of shitty.

  2. kcjerith,

    Isn’t it though. Oh well.

  3. Rudy beat Paul in terms of popular vote.

    That’s mostly a function of the heavy absentee vote. Hundreds of thousands of people voted by mail back when Clinton was leading huge and Rudy was still in the race. (Note also that Gravel came behind Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Edwards, AND Kucinich.)

  4. I don’t think I will ever understand reason’s logic on immigration. Is it supposed to be a surprise that border states and counties, with heavy populations connected to illegal immigration, vote heavily in favor of immigration moderates and liberals? And that “white” states vote more conservatively on the issue? Surely we’re not expected to believe that there is just a more enlightened white electorate in those areas? Or perhaps there are just more people in SOCAL who need cheap labor?

  5. Is it supposed to be a surprise that border states and counties, with heavy populations connected to illegal immigration, vote heavily in favor of immigration moderates and liberals?

    Well, yes, when the Republicans who represent this area in Congress are Darrell Issa, Brian Bilbray, and Duncan “I built the fence!” Hunter.

  6. One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.

    Another possible interpretation –
    One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Hillary, the less they seem to like her.

  7. One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Hillary, the less they seem to like her.

    Well, that seems a much harder explanation to believe since she’s been consistently in the public eye for over 16 years now. Makes much more sense that the relatively unknown candidate would be the cause for the change rather than suddenly a bunch of people figuring out they don’t like her. Where have they been for the better part of two decade?

  8. Surely we’re not expected to believe that there is just a more enlightened white electorate in those areas?

    Well, yes. As a member of the white electorate on Southern California, I am more knowledgeable about the impact of immigrants than white voters in states without significant immigrant populations.

  9. The funniest insight my friend made on super tuesday was that Barack Obama sounds exactly like The Rock.

    IF YOU SMELLLLLLLLLLLL WHAT BARACK IS COOKIN.

  10. I’m a little disappointed by the fact that San Joaquin county, where I growed up, fell in for the McCain package of lies. Ah, well, it’s now completely populated by BATs and foreclosed homes anyway.

  11. That’s mostly a function of the heavy absentee vote. Hundreds of thousands of people voted by mail back when Clinton was leading huge and Rudy was still in the race. (Note also that Gravel came behind Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Edwards, AND Kucinich.)

    I heard on the radio on my way home today (in Florida) that the state election board received hundreds of phone calls yesterday asking about where to vote.

    Florida’s primaries are a week and two days past.

    Now Dave, I’m sure absentee votes played into it somewhat, but there are still a mass of complete fucking idiots out there…

  12. …still is a mass…

    Apparently, there’s a mass of fried brain cells in my head as well…

  13. Seriously, it’s uncanny how much Barack Obama sounds like Rocky Maivia. I can’t wait for him to call the press corps “jabronies” when he’s president.

  14. Brian Courts –
    You’re right. I’m likely projecting my disgust with her that grows every time I hear her speak.

  15. Oh she’s a cute one, Hillary, just happens to have a cool $5million laying around to “loan” to her campaign.

  16. On the numbers right now, even if Obama takes 75% of the remaining delegates, he won’t have enough pledged delegates to guarantee the nomination. So in all likelihood, the convention is going to come down to the superdelegates.

    Clinton probably can’t get the nomination if it’s as extreme as 75-25 from here on out. But if she gets 40% or better of the remaining delegates, she’s probably going to win the nomination. The natural compromise at a convention that comes down to how the superdelegates vote is a Clinton/Obama ticket, not Obama/Clinton. Why?

    First, Clinton presumably has a lot more favors to cash in than Obama does among the superdelegates, so going in with the decision in their hands favors her to begin with.

    Second, age and resume are such that the Vice Presidency is more advantageous for Obama than the VP slot is for Clinton; sheer comparative advantage between the candidates suggests Clinton/Obama over Obama/Clinton.

    Third, Hillary Clinton will take a lot less reputation damage from a backroom brawl than Obama; since the costs of a brawl are higher for Obama, Obama has a greater incentive to take a compromise spot as VP than Clinton has.

    Fourth, it also defuses any wrangling over the status of the Clinton-dominated Michigan and Florida delegations.

  17. Thank you, goldberger, I’ll never be able to listen to Obama speaking without giggling again.

  18. The last undeclared Superdelegate, deciding the nomination: Jimmy Carter.

  19. Wisconsin, by Congressional Districts:

    1: (Ryan) 6 Delegates, split
    2: (Baldwin) 8 Delegates, 5-3 for Obama with big boost from downtown Madison
    3: (Kind) 6 Delegates, edge Obama, likely split
    4: (Moore) 6 Delegates, favors Obama, likely split
    5: (Sensenbrenner) 3 Delegates, 2-1 Clinton on Republican women crossover
    6: (Petri) 3 Delegates, narrowly favors Obama
    7: (Obey) 6 Delegates Obama wins, but tough to get that 4thj Delegate. His very strong showing in Duluth, and huge student turnouts in Eau Claire and Stevens Point, plus my strong showing v Herb Kohl in the River counties give a chance
    8: (Kagen) 6 Delegates, small edge to Clinton, but delegates split.

  20. Hillary can only get away with that if she is ahead, or it’s tied, WL.

  21. I’m sure absentee votes played into it somewhat, but there are still a mass of complete fucking idiots out there…

    Indeed there are. After voting in the primary yesterday I went to registrar of voters so I could unregister as a Republican. There was a man there who was shocked to learn that the deadline to register was the day before, and then, with a Homer Simpson-style “D’oh!” he said “Wait, today’s Super Tuesday?”

  22. I think she’d make a fight of it even if she is behind. Maybe the superdelegates won’t let her get away with it, but her presidential prospects won’t be any brighter four or eight years from now.

    In any case, “tied”, for purposes of political cover, includes any situation where adding Florida and Michigan’s delegates to her total brings her to a tie or the lead.

  23. Anyone have any idea where Hillary “made” $5M?

    Cattle futures?

  24. Anyone have any idea where Hillary “made” $5M?

    What an excellent question. She didn’t pull a salary as First Lady, and I wonder if she was able to charge for anything during that period. If so, what was it and what did she make?

    As a Senator, she’s cashing a check, but its, what, $150K? $180K Nice, but that doesn’t turn into $5MM to blow in one month.

    I don’t know what she had going into the White House in ’92, but I guess that could have turned into serious money.

    All this assumes, of course, that she hasn’t broken any laws.

    Bill, now, has been making serious coin since he left office, what with this six-figure speaking fees and his, ah, “consultancies” with super-rich “investors.”

  25. The coalition of small donors turning out for Obama tonight is going to make her look even more like a loser with this story. 5.8 mil since Super Tuesday for Obama.

    http://my.barackobama.com/page/contribute_c/sincefeb5_email/graphic

  26. “Anyone have any idea where Hillary “made” $5M?”

    Bill Clinton made millions and millions with his memoirs. Since he’s married to Hillary, it’s her money too. Same with his speaking fees.

  27. Hillary can only get away with that if she is ahead, or it’s tied, WL.

    Who’s going to stop her otherwise?

    The same people who forced her to uphold her end of the bargain re: campaigning in Florida?

  28. “One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.”

    And conversely, the more voters get to know Hillary, the more they seem to hate her.

  29. Well after re-electing Ray Nagin and Rep. Dollar Bill Jefferson I think its safe to say Obama is going to get the black vote in Louisiana. Between the blacks voting for the black candidate no matter what and the white people here that hate Hillary she doesn’t stand a chance IMO.

  30. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYsoAeLEa3k
    The above video I think explains why people get turned off of Hillary. She is easily capable of lying without remorse. And when she admits she made a mistake she still won’t apologize or even say it was a mistake during a debate when asked. Hillary has no problem taking money from lobbyist, where Obama is completly against them. Its that kind of leader I want in office

  31. Chris Potter,

    Who’s going to stop her otherwise?

    The same people who forced her to uphold her end of the bargain re: campaigning in Florida?

    She hasn’t actually accomplished anything i/r/t Florida, remember?

    Yes, the Democratic National Committee, which is control of what happens at the convention, and is not in control of Hillary Clinton personally, will be able to exert much more influence over what goes on at the convention than over Hillary Clinton’s campaign schedule.

  32. Of the 19 states where both parties voted on Tuesday, the winners broke down like this:

    Clinton/McCain: 5
    Clinton/someone else: 3
    Obama/McCain: 4
    Obama/someone else: 7

    Not terribly scientific, I know, but I read this to mean that Obama did better in states where McCain didn’t do so well. Since McCain’s nomination is nearly a sure thing, this makes Obama look like the best candidate for the Dems to put forward, no?

    This is what I would be thinking about if I was a superdelegate. But I’ll be the first to point out I haven’t the faintest idea how superdelegates (or for that matter, Democrats) actually think.

  33. The latest I’ve heard on FL and MI is that the Democratic Party is trying to set up caucuses in those states to apportion their delegates. Sounds to me like an excellent idea.

    Hillary is opposed, of course, as she can only do worse in caucuses than in an election with only her name on the ballot.

    I look forward to Obama supporters arguing that they were disenfranchised in the early primaries, and that Hillary is supporting their disenfranchisement.

    Hoisting and petards, all around!

  34. It would be an extreme slap in the face if Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and popular vote when the DNC rolls around and the ‘super’ delegates give the nomination to Hillary.

    Of course, it would just go to prove on again that the will of the public at large doesn’t matter. If an election is close, the (courts / superdelegates / whomever) decide for you.

  35. Especially since Obama seems to win all the caucuses.

    I look forward to Obama supporters arguing that they were disenfranchised in the early primaries, and that Hillary is supporting their disenfranchisement.

    Oof.

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