Super Tuesday Part IV: 10 p.m.
On the Democratic side, Obama's late poll surge has truly held up: He's shredded Clinton's firewall in the northeast and is winning states (Delaware, probably Connecticut) where Clinton once led by better than 20 points. The states he loses he'll lose narrowly enough to score about half of the delegates. And the caucus states where he's expected to do well haven't been called yet. This isn't Clinton's nightmare scenario, but it's close.
On the Republicans' side, Huckabee is absolutely holding in the South: He could add Missouri and Georgia to his stack and come out of the night with five wins. Unless McCain wins Tennessee, Huckabee will sweep there.
Utah polls close at 10: Romney will win immediately, Obama is actually favored (in the final polls) to win. The Montana (Republican) caucus results will trickle in, as will the Colorado (both parties) caucuses.
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Is anybody else not able to watch the streaming commentary on Reason.TV? I keep getting "server full" messages.
I am shocked and disgusted more so than anything else by the degree of success the Huckster is enjoying...
They really seem to like Obama in empty western states that don't have any Democrats.
Senhor Rittberg, how does it feel to see your new boyfrend Romney in such a tail spin after pumping so much money into his national machine? Too delicious to see this old kodger McCain wipe his ass at almost 3:1 at this point in time. Roofles.
Those also happen to be the empty western states that are usually a lake of red in the general, and have a higher ratio of electoral votes to population than the coastal strongholds of the Dems.
The Clinton Machine isn't as strong in those empty western states I think.
Copied from the previous thread, because I guess things will be moving here and I'm just so damned insightful 🙂
I just found some info on the precincts reporting in Missouri - nothing in St. Louis city, very little in St. Louis county. I don't know if Obama can catch up, but it should end up substantially closer than the current numbers.
http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/raceresults.asp?eid=203&oid=46484&arc=
MSNBC has McCain now ahead in MA and they seemed to have pulled their previous prediction.
What is the bottomline on all this? What is the actual delegate count as it currently stands? I can't get figure out at all who between Obama and Clinton is actually winning.
MSNBC still has Missouri too close to call.
go 'bama!
Wait. What are all these nerds doin here. is this not the football game?
Judging from the whining going on at NRO, it is good night for McCain and a bad night for Romney.
You know what? Huckabee has had a great night. It may very well be a two-person race between McCain and Huckabee from here on out. Romney is done.
Huckabee's victory speech is incredible.
He is a hell of a good campaigner.
Cesar,
Where does Huckabe win after the South? I can't imagine him ever winning a primary outside of the South.
Who's the "other" that's getting more than 84% of the vote so far in Utah? Am I missing something obvious?
Ha! Will Mittens lose in his fake home state? Hillary won hers.
I think a lot of independents who might have voted for Obama in Massachusetts voted Republican to screw Mitt Romney.
Colin,
CNN has Romney well ahead in Mass.
"Where does Huckabe win after the South? I can't imagine him ever winning a primary outside of the South."
Yeah, he's in single digits in a lot of states outside of the South. Seems like all he's doing is driving nails into Romney's coffin.
Bill Clinton said of Mike Huckabee: He's the only one (of the Republicans) who can tell a joke or give a speech. He is a tough candidate.
"Huckabee's victory speech is incredible.
He is a hell of a good campaigner."
That is because he is Satan. No one ever said Satan couldn't give a good speach.
I must say it's laughable watching those twits on ABC crowing about the high voter turnout (like it's a good thing) and holding forth on today's events as if it actually matters which one of these goobers gets in.
(OK...Cokie Roberts comes from a political family, so I suppose she can be excused somewhat for thinking it's all somehow important. I don't know what the hell's gotten into the rest of them...)
Huckabee's victory speech is incredible.
If you're an SEC-type. The rest of us vomit.
I think it's still far too early to get an accurate read on the bottom-line, John. So many states have complex proportional schemes - a difference of ten or fifteen percent statewide could produce a virtual tie in delegates. We probably won't have any real idea until well into tomorrow.
And of course that doesn't take into account super delegates, who can and will change their votes with every passing political breeze.
I didn't say he would win the nomination, but I think he will be in this longer than Romney and with good reason. Romney has really flamed out tonight.
Ha! Will Mittens lose in his fake home state? Hillary won hers.
AR and NY. Actual home state (IL)? Not so much.
Hucklebuck is sort of a Jerry Fallwell/Pat Robertson hybrid.
I could look it up but ... How many GOP delegates in Texas? How is Huckabee polling there?
When is the Primary?
Geez, how does it feel that my candidate Mitt Romney isn't having a great night? He's only posted two States so far.
I guess no better than having my candidate get 2% in Georgia. If Mitt had gotten 2% in Georgia, I would hide my head in shame.
And who was that candidate who got 2% in Georgia?
St. Louis county's starting to come in, and Obama's beating Clinton 57-40 there so far. The overall Missouri numbers are getting quite a bit closer. Still no St. Louis city, and a lot more of the county to go.
I can't keep up, MJN. She's like George HW Bush, who is from Maine, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Texas.
Looking at the Democratic race, there are very few close states. Except for Connecticut, it looks like every state has a double-digit margin of victory.
27 posts here on this thread. And not a single mention of Ron Paul in any context, anywheres.
Where are all the Ron Paul supporters tonight?
Paul didn't spend millions of his own money. Romney did, and got less of a return.
Where does Huckabe win after the South? I can't imagine him ever winning a primary outside of the South.
Iowa's in the South?
ok,
McCain v Obama = how does that play out?
McCain v Clinton = same Q
I think versus Clinton, McCain wins. Not so much with the Black Kennedy.
Texas has 140 delegates, and goes March 4.
SIV,
Texas primary is not until March 4th. I wouldn't worry about Huckabee doing well here though, the major Republican strongholds are oil and finance towns like Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, which will be either McCain or Romney supporters (depending on if Romney has a shot, he might look to campaign hard here)
Do you guys remember when Dondero was something more than a dishonest hack? When he mattered for something beyond low-brow entertainment at his expense? Wait, was that ever the case?
How many of you here are predicting Ron Paul winning any State tonight?
North Dakota? Minnesota maybe?
Certainly he'll win Alaska, right?
Why isn't anyone here predicting any victories for Ron Paul tonight? Cat got y'all's tongues?
And who was that candidate who got 2% in Georgia?
One losing candidate doesn;t make another loser a winner.
oh, and fuck off Dondero. You dont have a purpose anymore.
3% Dondero
A whole lot better than Giuliani did.
When is Huckabee or McCain gonna be you r"mainstream libertarian" candidate?
Which one when Romney's wife tells him to stop writing checks?
Romney is toast Dondero. That you have to boast about him winning Utah says it all.
Yeah Cesar Augustus, Caligula, or whatever the hell your name is.
I guess getting 2% in Georgia is a "good return on your investment."
Oh, and Ron Paul also got just 3% in Alabama. That's Lew Rockwell's backyard. Praytell Lew, what happened to all your Rockwell-ites?
as it happens, I still have the standing $5 bet that RP wont win any primaries. Maybe that will make Dondercock shut up, because not everyone here is/was a Paulista.
We're at least unanimously in agreement that he's a douche.
Dondero, your own blog highlights Romney winning in West Virginia and Delaware. Clueless
It My Man Mitt loses Colorado, I will agree he's Toast.
But if your man Ron loses Alaska, he's milktoast.
How 'bout it? Wanna step up with a prediction.
Will Ron Paul win Alaska?
Dondi, in case you don't know how to do simple math formulas Paul has paid less per delegate than Romney by far.
Really? 3% is better than Rudy Giuliani?
Sorry, but I seem to recall Giuliani posting 15.5% in Florida. That's some funny math you have there, 3% better than 15.5%
FWIW, Romney is currently winning in Minnesota.
Yea, Augustus, and your point is?
That's Romney's business how much of his own money he spends the way he wants to spend it. Are you some sort of Socialist?
Romney has crushed the opposition in Nevada, Michigan, Maine, Wyoming and posted decent showings in Maine. That's nothing to be ashamed of.
And Ron Paul?
Well, not a single State. And he's not even likely to win Alaska tonight, his best chance.
Eric:
Paul won more delegates than Giuiani.
Romney's spent 90 million dollars and walks away with not much more than Utah! And you call this guy a fiscal conservative.
Dondero, Paul has more delegates than Rudy. By far.
Rudy spent $40 million plus and got one delegate. Thats what I call a bad value.
But if your man Ron loses Alaska, he's milktoast.
A) It is spelled milquetoast.
B) In that sentence, that word makes no goddamn sense.
Why is it that you're the only one who perceives that there is Ron Paul cheerleading going on? Fact is, Rittberg, there's only counter-bashing taking place. Nobody is and will be under an unwarranted, unreasonable delusion that Ron Paul is going to sweep a state. Many of us are wildly pleased with the admittedly low but considerable numbers that Ron Paul has garnered, enough to cost your new boyfriend Romney 18 delegates. Meanwhile, you continue to sully the reputation of the term "libertarian" by associating it with rabid jingoism, liberal authoritarian NYC mayors for president, diluting it down to something resembling hedonistic conservatism, and lambaste otherwise respectable people from the private sector by questioning their right to criticise the military-industrial complex that they overwhelmingly fund with their tax dollars.
If Mitt wins Minnesota and pulls it out in Colorado, it's a decent night for him. Not a "good night". He only goes into "good night" territory if he wins California.
If he's even with McCain in Cali, even if he wins Minn, and Colorado, it's not good enough for him to continue.
He's gotta win California.
Listen up folks Mitt Romney is giving his Victory Speech.
Fair enough Roger. But surely you do want to get better than 2 to 3%.
Ron Paul got 2% in Georgia.
Looks like he'll finish with 3% in Alabama.
That's pathetic! Surely he should have gotten 7 or 8% at least in those two States. That's Lew Rockwell's backyard for gosh sakes!
Are you kidding us, Eric? Tonight is a disaster for Mitt Romney.
If he wins California, he manages not to fall into third place.
Its safe to say Clinton has one Missouri. If she wins Colorado too, she surely has the nomination.
The raw influence that Lew Rockwell exerts on the political culture of Alabama is clearly staggering.
Romney just won North Dakota via Fox News with 37%.
Mitt reminds me of that Makers Mark (?) commercial. An attempt at high rhetoric that comes out as sounding like your assistant regional manager.
Allow me to be the first to say:
DONDERRRRROOOOOOOO!!!!
Romney knows it's over even if you don't Dondero.
So, what happens if Romney and Huckabee win 5-6 states each and McCain picks up 10-12?
Joe, you wanna retract that statement? You should have waited 5 minutes before you opened up your trap.
Rommey just won North Dakota.
Fox under the screen is now reporting that Romney is ahead in Montana.
Here's the likely Romney count for tonight:
Mass.
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Colorado
Alaska
and maybe, just maybe California
I'd say that's a pretty decent night. Not a great night. But a solid 'B', as in Very Good.
Dondero,
Q: Was there a Mainstream Media Blackout on Paul?
A: Yes, we are DEVO.
Consider this: http://journalism.org/node/9610
No matter how much the press lubs McCain Elio's Pizza, the peeps lub the Huckster. That's the real surprise. So, you see we're all losers cause folks lub their gubbmint cheques.
And allow me to be the first to say:
Snaaaaaaaaappppppppppyyyyyyyyyy!!!
Yeah, that Ron Paul got 2% in Georgia!! And a whopping 3% in Alabama. He's gonna win!!!
I am sticking by my prediction of McCain versus Clinton. The elites and the blogers on both sides are going to be really pissed about it, but I think that is what is going to happen.
MJN | February 5, 2008, 10:33pm | #
But if your man Ron loses Alaska, he's milktoast.
A) It is spelled milquetoast.
Both spellings are correct. As is milk toast. Casper got his name from the food.
Cesar,
St. Louis city is just starting to come in, and Obama's beating Clinton 72-27 there. There's also more of St. Louis county to come, where he's beating her 57-40. The count at politico keeps getting closer - he's now less than 10 points down, and I don't think they have all of the numbers that are at the Missouri election site I posted above.
I'd be a little surprised if he catches her, but I think it's too close to say right now.
The Mainstream Media loves Ron Paul. He bashes Bush, he opposes the War in Iraq.
The LA Times covers Paul positively every single day. Ditto for the Houston Chronicle. Paul has gotten more positive press than any other single GOP candidate this election cycle.
I don't know David, I'm not seeing such a nightmare. He isn't losing the big states by such narrow margins so far (perhaps that will change in places like Mass. as joe thinks), Delaware doesn't count for much, and Connecticut looks like it'll be close to an even split. Sure, one can say she lost big leads in those states, and Obama has certainly had momentum lately, but if she wins all the big ones by 8, 10 or more points, she'll build enough of a lead to be difficult to catch. If she get California tonight, Obmama's momentum is not going to be the headline the papers tomorrow. People are interested in winners and losers more than momentum and if the lead story is her winning most the biggies, that will do a lot to put the brakes on Obama's momentum.
So, Rittberg is for Romney now?
What's he looking for, the winner of the miss superficiality award?
-jcr
John-
I've been saying the same thing since the New Hampshire Primary. Obama is Eugene McCarthy/Jerry Brown, Huckabee is Jerry Falwell.
Oh my God, North Dakota!
Wow, is my face red! Mittens won North Dakota!
That means he's not getting his ass kicked after all.
Eric, there are more voters in the precincts of Boston that haven't reported yet than in North Dakota.
That is a pathetic list of states, Eric. His home state and handful of small ones. If that's all he pulls out, he falls to third place. He'd better hope he wins California, or at least loses a tight one.
John,
if its McCain vs Billary. McCain can and prolly does win. if its Romney vs any Dem, he prolly loses. if its Obama vs any Rep, he prolly wins.
BET ON IT!
Thank me later.
"Paul has gotten more positive press than any other single GOP candidate this election cycle."
That has got to be the stupidest thing Dondero has ever typed. And as we all know, there's a whole lot of competition for that title.
MSNBC just called GA for huckster.
By the map, he's looking like a 21st century dixiecrat
Come to think of it, that's basically his platform, without the overt racism.
How many of you here are predicting Ron Paul winning any State tonight?
North Dakota? Minnesota maybe?
Certainly he'll win Alaska, right?
Why isn't anyone here predicting any victories for Ron Paul tonight? Cat got y'all's tongues?
You have proven to be unable to comprehend this, but I will say it anyway: I don't think he's a winner, I think he's right. That's why I support him.
Romney disbursements as of New Years: $86,068,239
loller!
Brian I think you are right. Hillary can spin wins in big states regardless of the margins.
Yes, it's confirmed. Romney has won North Dakota!
Sparky- Agreed.
This will be a win for Hillary tomorrow after the spin definitely. Shes still by far the establishment/machine candidate of the Democratic Party.
Smappy, Eric. Smappy.
Guys, I just came....ahhh
John Randolph says: What's he looking for, the winner of the miss superficiality award?
No, I'm afraid that all he wants is a "mainstream libertarian" openly hostile to the Second Amendment. We're going 2/2 now.
Bookmaker,
Agreed.
Wow Utah.
Not that he got it, but that no demographic (cept the 11% that think that abortion should be mostly legal) was under 80% for him. And most (forex the ladies) went for him > 90%
North Dakota?!?
THE North Dakota?!?
WOW!
Joe, are you saying that Colorado and Minnesota are "small states"?
Agree with you on North Dakota, Alaska and Utah. Yes, they are small states.
But Colorado??????????
I will go on record right here and now. If Mitt loses Colorado, it's over for him. If he wins Colorado, it's a very good night.
If he wins Colorado and California, it's a GREAT NIGHT FOR ROMMEY.
And North Dakota was one Ron Paul was supposed to win.
I can't believe the Democratic Party is actually stuck in its decision between the liberal Ronald Reagan and Hugo Chavez in a Pants Suit.
I guess no better than having my candidate get 2% in Georgia.
Eric, your candidate dropped out a couple weeks ago because he couldn't even muster up numbers as high as Paul's.
Cesar,
I think Hillary is a little smarter than Hugo. Probably just as evil, but she has got to be smarter.
Dondero,
Stop betting on the guy who wears magic undies. A lotta the country hates on the LDS. His undies won't protect from the hate. Sorry, I just call it like I sees it.
Also, I never saw North Dakota do that to a man before.
If he wins Colorado and California, it's a GREAT NIGHT FOR ROMMEY.
Romney is not going to win California. That is absurd. The GOP race is over and McCain is the nominee, end of story.
Wait a minute, Eric. Before your old boy Giuliani had to drop out of the race because he couldn't even get as much support as Ron Paul, you kept chirping on and on about how libertarians had to support abortion rights. Isn't your new boy Romney anti-abortion?
Wow - McCain just passed Huckabee in Missouri according to CNN. Those late Kansas City and St. Louis votes are changing things a fair bit. Obama's within about 7 points, but I'm sad to say I don't think he'll catch Clinton there.
Those early reports of AZ being too close to call seem odd, considering MSNBC & CNN just gave to to McCain 49-31 with about 1/3 precincts reporting.
I am amazed at how some tReason readers dump on paul. the only notable national politician who wants govt out of defining marriage and who wants to end federal drug war AND says so in public.
you guys are inconsistent fuck ups who have no hope of influencing the national debate. i am outta here.
Huckster just repeated the Ron Paul/ WV deal, but denied any coordination with McCain
Mitt Romney just won North Dakota.
Also, 37% of the precincts in, he's way ahead in Minnesota with 47% to McCain's 23%.
BIG NEWS!!!!!
Mitt Romney has a comfortable lead in Colorado.
"you guys are inconsistent fuck ups who have no hope of influencing the national debate. i am outta here."
OK, bye. Take Dondero with you. You two can have some fun discussions with each other.
FOX NEWS JUST CALLED THE STATE OF MONTANA FOR MITT ROMNEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The gap just closed a lot in Missouri - now 50-46 Clinton over Obama with 78% reporting. C'mon, St. Louis and Kansas City!
Syd (if you're still hanging out here):
I will concede on the spelling. I still maintain the usage was incorrect.
I am amazed at how some tReason readers dump on paul.
Eric Dondero isn't representative of Reason (the magazine or the mental ability).
Eric, if Romney wins the presidency, what does that mean for the future of abortion rights in America? As you have pointed out multiple times, being pro-abortion is the number-one boffo-most important libertarian issue of all time, remember?
Wow, those Mizzou numbers keep getting tighter.
Really going to be interesting to watch the early California results.
Obama leads the delegate count?
Jennifer, I'll trust Romney's Top Advisor William Weld on the abortion issue. If Mitt's good enough for hardcore Pro-Choicer William Weld, he's damn sure good enough for me.
Really?!?
THE Montana?!?
WOW!!
(all credit to joe; it was funnier above when he did it)
1)Giuliani
1) Romney
1)McCain ?
2)Election Day
3)Libertopia!
Eric, if Romney wins the presidency, what does that mean for the future of abortion rights in America?
I can answer that one. $50 co-pay on taxpayer funded abortions under RomneyCare in Massachusetts.As President maybe it drops to $20!
Mitt ain't winning shit.
Hannah Montana can't sway a national election.
BOOK IT.
Huckabee has regained the lead in Missouri and Clinton's lead there has tightened to 3%.
Jennifer, I'll trust Romney's Top Advisor William Weld on the abortion issue. If Mitt's good enough for hardcore Pro-Choicer William Weld, he's damn sure good enough for me.
So Romney lied when he said he opposes abortion? Why do you support a liar for the presidency?
And how's your House campaign against Ron Paul doing, anyway? Considering how badly he's doing in today's primaries, it sounds like beating him would be amazingly easy for anyone with even the slightest whiff of political acumen. So you must be kicking his ass down there, huh?
I'm starting to think Obama might take Missouri. The urban votes coming in are hugely in his favor. Now 50-47 with 84% reporting.
Mister Dondero (with respects to Pratchett):
When Romney doesn't pull this off... how long until we hear about how McCain is the new great white hope?
Myself... I'm still a Ron Paul guy... there was a chance of me supporting Romney, but it looks like neither of them are getting in.
Nephilium... my real name... at least online.
You know, if I were McCain I would be absolutely terrified that Dondero was going to jump on to my bandwagon next, since he's clearly cursed. A plague rat, if you will.
peachy:
So Dondero:campaigns::Ted McGinley:TV Shows?
And the last time I attempted to post this... Hit and Run died... I'm not sure who it's rejecting...
Nephilium
Dondero wants to talk about Rudy's 15.5%?
Well, if we can cherry pick a guy's best number, Paul got 21% in ND and 25% in MT.
Pretty much.
My Projection: Clinton defeats Obama in CA.
The Insufferable Huck sure likes to throw the free-market rhetoric around. For a second there- naw, he never came close to convincing me...
Mitt Romney has just swept the West. He has won big in Montana, Minnesota, North Dakota, Colorado and Utah.
When Romney doesn't pull this off... how long until we hear about how McCain is the new great white hope?
I say between 16 and 20 hours, depending on whether or not Dondero's asleep when the news first breaks.
I guess I have to stay up to see how Missouri turns out.
I second Cesar's prediction - Clinton beats Obama in the California voting. But not by much.
Obama is still ahead in projected delegates from tonight, but Clinton will probably pull a little ahead after California.
Unless it's a statewide rout for Clinton in California, Super Tuesday is going to be a wash for the Democrats.
@Eric Dondero
I don't know what I find sadder. Those that thought Ron Paul had a chance at all or you hanging out on this site, posting ever 5 seconds for a candidate that lost any chance to win weeks ago.
On second thought - they are equally as sad.
http://www.politico.com/
Clinton and McCain have California.
We, if we thought Paul had a chance, it wasn't much of one, but better than as a LP candidate.
Eric Dondero:
BIG NEWS!!!!!
Mitt Romney has a comfortable lead in Colorado.
Umm, Eric. He's had a comanding lead here for months.
...Well, one and a half months.
peachy:
You know, if I were McCain I would be absolutely terrified that Dondero was going to jump on to my bandwagon next, since he's clearly cursed. A plague rat, if you will.
That is so funny! But ya know, I find Eric's over the top spinning for Romney kinda charming...It's the first time that I've found anything that Eric's written, charming.
For libertarians, you sure are unsympathetic to the one candidate who actually has experience competing in the free market.
Aww, stick a fork in Romney. He's done. Sorry Rittberg!
This is the wierdest thread ever.
It's like you all too acid and got locked in a room with a tv and a computer.
Cool.
Also, I am English, but I like the word 'goober' and whoever used it on this thread.
Eric Dondero | February 5, 2008, 11:09pm | #
FOX NEWS JUST CALLED THE STATE OF MONTANA FOR MITT ROMNEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My god.
Dude, get a fucking life.
He's gotta win California.
Guess what Eric? HE DIDN'T WIN CALFORNIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hah hah hah hah hah! Hah! Hah!
Romney is toast and now you have to grovel and beg for forgiveness before you are allowed to proclaim McCain your new libertarian hero!