Campaigns/Elections

Open Thread about the Florida Primaries…

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News from Florida is gonna be trickling out soon enough.

Here's some pre-primary polls to consider as the results become known.

First, courtesy of Real Clear Politics, the GOP side of the ledger:

Florida Primary Republican Polls

And now the Dems (whose contest doesn't matter, except symbolically):

Florida Primary Democratic Polls

Have fun with it all. Check back here for periodic updates.

Update (circa 7.50pm): From Fox News, the headline "Early Exit Polls: Seniors and Hispanics Strong For McCain."

Update (circa 8.50pm): From Bloomberg, the headline "McCain, Romney Race in Florida Too Close to Call." The short version is McCain 34 percent, Romney 33 percent, Rudy G. at 15 percent, with one-third of precincts reporting. Early projections are that Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama in the Dem contest, which doesn't count for anything other than symbolism because no delegates are at stake.

Update (circa 9.25pm): Fox News is calling it for McCain over Romney, 35 percent to 31 percent. Time.com's Mark Helperin is reporting that Rudy Giuliani, a distant third with 15 percent, will be endorsing McCain as soon as tomorrow.

Final Update (circa 9.35pm): What Matt Welch and Brian Doherty say above. The important thing to remember is a message that we put on a cover in November 2004. The faces may change, but the song–a sad one, though not without humor–remains the same:

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  1. Rudy, you’re the weakest link. Goodbye.

  2. Pretty sure that shows Paul as the weakest link. Boy idealism was fun, now realism sets in

  3. Woah, Clinton rocking Obama across the board.

  4. Good clip of Florida radio host Mark Larsen getting seriously pissed off after Romney mocks Ron Paul in an interview today. Click my name for link.

  5. So how exactly are Florida and Michigan going to be dealt with at the convention? I’m not sure I’ve heard a single pundit say they think FL and MI will actually be excluded – everyone seems to think some deal will be worked out and the delegates will be seated. But no one explains how that would be done in a remotely fair and credible way given that Obama, and I think Edwards, weren’t on the ballot in either state.

  6. Both of the eventual nominees will pick up wins tonight: Clinton and McCain.

    As for the weakest link, discounting Paul, I think it’s past time to stick a fork in Huckabee who is thankfully (over)done despite my brief worries to the contrary a few weeks ago.

  7. Wait – I see Obama and Edwards getting significant percentages in the early returns. Am I full of shit about them not being on the FL ballot?

    In any case, the general question stands, especially for Michigan.

  8. Bingo: The Democrat side doesn’t really matter, since Florida was stripped of its delegates, same as Michigan.

    Nephilium

  9. People in Pinellas County who used electronic voting machines were surprised to find that they automatically voted YES on Amendment 1 unless they went through a couple of touch screens to change their vote. That’s the Amendment supported by the governor. It apparently was a glitch.

  10. “The Democrat side doesn’t really matter, since Florida was stripped of its delegates, same as Michigan”

    Except Clinton is trying to get them reinstated.

    Out of desperation, no doubt.

  11. The true nature of the Clintons–if you can’t win, try fraud!

    I can see it now, Bill biting his lip and Hilldog crackling her voice BUT WE CARE ABOUT *YOU* FLORIDA!

  12. My predictions:

    Romney and McCain tied at 34%.

    After absentees come in, Romney squeeks it out by less than 1%.

    Rudy – 15%

    Huckabee – 13.5%

    Ron Paul – 3%

  13. I’m pulling for McCain so that all the establishment Republicans are left crying in their soup when this is all over. Then they can join us in looking for a “true Republican” four years from now.

  14. What happened to Mayor 9/11?

  15. BTW, I don’t know who Mark Larsen is but after hearing that clip I like him already.

  16. I’m thinking the absentees are going to break for McCain.

  17. Good for Romney! Finally, one of the GOP frontrunners is calling Ron Paul what he is: A flaming Anti-American Kook!

    My respect for Mitt Romney had just gone up 1000%.

  18. Chad, you’re right.

    The way that Rudy blew his lead, his name recognition, his asshole attitude and his $60 million to win 1 delegate clearly makes him a stronger candidate than Paul.

    I’ll miss my daily dose of fear-mongering at the debate tomorrow. McRomney will have to pick up the slack.

  19. Dondero what about the guy you said would be the next President almost all last year, Rudy “Benito” Giuliani? Hows he doin DONDEEEROOOO?

  20. Notice there’s quiet on the Ron Paul front today?

    Besides Lew Rockwell calling Reagan an “Imperialist” and a “NeoCon” on LRC today.

    Bet Ron Paul doesn’t even break 3% today. Chalk it all up to the Racist Newsletter scandal.

  21. Mayor Sept.11 was weak. He didn’t spend enough time in high crime areas that would buy into his tough-guy going after the bad guys schtick. Instead he went to Jesus-freak towns like Titusville. Rooody: yous a big town guy, and so many Florida towns have delusions of NYC-grandeur. Why didn’t you hit them up?

  22. What about him?

    Rudy and Romney are essentially the same: Fiscally Conservative/Socially Centrist Northeasterners.

    I give Rudy the edge on foreign policy. But Mitt’s coming around, even attacking “Islamo-Fascism.”

    Mitt for President! Rudy for Defense Secretary in the Romney Administration!!!

  23. BTW Dondi, John McCain wins. Especially if you’re hedging by saying there will be a tie. So you’ve backed two losers. Oh Dondero, is there anything you’re right about?

  24. Wonder what all the naysayer libertarians will say if Romney pulls this one out?

    A huge victory for mainstream libertarians, and a huge loss for extremist radical Anarchism posing as libertarianism, i.e. Ron Paul.

  25. Nelson,

    Rudy will still be at the debate tomorrow, so you can sleep soundly. He’ll make it until at least tuesday

  26. Wonder what all the naysayer libertarians will say if Romney pulls this one out?

    I’ll say the Republicans chose a bland, white-bread flip-flopping war-mongering panderdroid. Should I say something else?

  27. “Chalk it all up to the Racist Newsletter scandal.”

    You may be right. Part of Florida’s problem is that it doesn’t stand for anything. In New Hampshire it’s Live Free or Die. In Florida its:

    [silence and man standing with finger up nose, wiggles pinky, but that’s not the finger up nose]

  28. What did Romney actually say about Paul? I don’t use sound or video on my computer. I remember when in addition to posting Tubes ( or Digg links)people tended to write little blurbs about things.

  29. This is the URL for the Florida Department of State division of elections
    http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/
    Updated all the time

  30. Eric, do you jerk off to to picture of Osama Bin Laden. You don’t seem to care about anything but going over to the Middle East and killing a whole heap of those “freedom haters.”

    You remind me of Ann Coulter

  31. I’d love it if Obama won Florida and the Clintons all of a sudden didn’t give a rat’s ass about Florida’s delegates being seated.

  32. “A huge victory for mainstream libertarians”

    It would really be more of a huge victory for people who don’t have a clue what the word libertarian means.

  33. Ron Paul didn’t really compete in Florida. He is trying to campaign in places where delegates are possible. For someone in his position he is doing the right thing. Unlike the Rudy ” I didnt compete in Iowa in NH even though i spent millions of dollars and 3 dozen visits there” strategy.

  34. “Bet Ron Paul doesn’t even break 3% today. Chalk it all up to the Racist Newsletter scandal.”

    Or the fact that he’s not campaigning there and hasn’t run any ads since it’s a winner take all state.

    That Larsen interview was interesting. Every time I wonder if Romney wouldn’t be that bad of a choice in November I hear something like that and remember why I’m voting for Ron Paul.

  35. There are 3 North Florida Counties that have reported: All three overwhelming for Romney. There’s still 20 or so N. Fla Counties out. So far those who have reported are mostly Tampa Bay Area, strong for McCain.

    If N. Fla goes big for Mitt, he could pull it off.

  36. Hey Eric, please tell me where gay-marriage banning, drug-warrior, pro-life Mitt Romney is “socially liberal”.

  37. Bet Ron Paul doesn’t even break 3% today. Chalk it all up to the Racist Newsletter scandal.

    do you think most people even heard about the ron paul newsletters? you overestimate his visibility.

    if you seriously think those newsletters made any difference to registered republicans, you’re more worried about paul as a threat than his supporters are faithful that he will win.

  38. Funny, the Ron Paul people said the same thing about Wyoming: “Golly gee, Ron didn’t even campaign there.”

    Truth was he did campaign in Wyoming, spent a lot of money there, and ended up with ZERO Delegates.

  39. “I’d love it if Obama won Florida and the Clintons all of a sudden didn’t give a rat’s ass about Florida’s delegates being seated.”

    Nope, Hillary crushed him. Of course, it’s skewed since it didn’t count.

  40. “Truth was he did campaign in Wyoming, spent a lot of money there, and ended up with ZERO Delegates.”

    But not in Florida.

  41. Sorry Cesar, I don’t respond to people who use phoney names on-line.

  42. Paul does okay in small states. Not a single big state does he stand a chance in: PA, New Jersey, New York, California, and even Texas. All will be crushing defeats for Paul.

    Proof is his 3% showing in Florida, a state where he should have done a lot better.

  43. Its not a phony name, dipshit.

  44. Sorry Cesar, I don’t respond to people who use phoney names on-line.

    Mine, Mine, I got it, I call it!

    Ahem:

    Whatever, Rittberg.

  45. Some of Ron Paul’s staunchest supporters live in Florida: Alan Turin, Don Black, et.al.

    Yet he’s pulling 3% there. Doesn’t say much for the efforts of Turin, Black and crew.

  46. Joe, the best part is–I’m not even using a phony name.

  47. Whatever the results, McCain isn’t going to be the nominee, because the great majority of Americans are going to object to his HispanicOutreach director being a former cabinet member of the MexicanGovernment.

    So far no MSM source has touched the story, with the most mainstream sources even mentioning it being MickeyKaus and MarcAmbinder.

    However, he was asked about it a few days ago, and the video is here. It wasn’t that good a question, but I’m working on a better one and hopefully someone will ask it. A few hundred thousand views later, McCain isn’t going to be electable for anything.

  48. So Cesar, what’s your last name?

  49. “phony names” used for online discussions are called “handles.”

  50. Cesar, where do you live?

    Eric Dondero Rittberg
    Angleton, Texas
    832-896-9505

  51. Cesar McKinley?

  52. What the fuck are you some kind of stalker?

  53. No Lamar, they’re called phoney names. Handles something leftover from the 1970s CB days. Gosh I’m glad that era is dead, just like Disco.

  54. No, I’m an honest individual, who stands by his remarks on-line, unlike you pussy boy.

    Stop using fake names on on-line forums. Have the courage of your convictions. If not, than just shut the fuck up.

  55. Joe, the best part is–I’m not even using a phony name.

    Oh, bull. You’re name is Horst Gunderson, you live on your uncle’s sheep farm in western Minnesota, and you have a rich imagination.

    I’m onto you, buddy!

  56. I think Dondero is trying to stalk me. Creepy.

  57. Mine, Mine, I got it, I call it!

    Ahem:

    Whatever, Rittberg.

    PWNED!!!!!

    McCain is gonna win Dondero. Jeez, every candidate you back loses, so of course you can only go after smaller fish like Ron Paul to make yourself feel better.

  58. Eric Dondero Rittberg: why don’t you email people privately? I find it incredibly vain to plaster your name publicly like that. And I don’t mean you personally or mean to suggest you don’t have good reason. I just mean that I personally feel incredibly vain doing it. Email me, I’ll tell you my name and contact info.

  59. I’m Cesar Spartacus!

  60. Rudy going down, excellent.

  61. I will start the bidding at $50 fifty dollars. Fifty dollars to kick Dondero in the nuts. Do I hear $60?

  62. Or maybe I’ll just follow in the footsteps of the founding fathers and other proud individuals who used psuedonyms to voice their views and publish works.

    You are such a creepy little shithead for wanting to know people’s real names.

  63. No joe, my real name is Ahmed Hassan Hussein, and I hate America. I’m trying to take down Rittberg for my Islamofascist buddies back home, inshallah.

  64. Is that man Insane??????

  65. Eric Dondero | January 29, 2008, 7:41pm | #
    Sorry Cesar, I don’t respond to people who use phoney names on-line.

    and yet, you did

    btw, Florida has over 50 counties, so what 3 or 20 did really doesn’t mean much.

    my prediction: Eric will touch himself while crying and repeatedly viewing his TIVO recording of Giuliani dropping out of the race.

  66. If Dondero really wanted anyone here to vote for his preferential candidate, he’d shut the fuck up.

    Of course mentally unbalanced people do tend to talk alot. I guess Dondero just thinks we’re the voices in his head.

  67. I’m always tempted to call Dondi, but the thought of him having my number is kinda creepy.

  68. Speaking of Giuliani, he’s doing better than expected: 18%.

    You add that vote to Romney’s and it’s a huge win for Fiscal Cons over Centrist Squish McCain and Religious Rightist Huckabee.

  69. Hey Dondero,

    Since you’re here, can you explain how Tammy Bruce is a Libertarian?

  70. Dondero, lets get back on topic. Please tell us how Romeny is socially liberal since hes both pro-life (which you used to say was THE issue!) and supports banning gay marriage?

  71. “Have the courage of your convictions. If not, than just shut the fuck up.”

    That’s good advice. So why don’t you quit pretending that you’ve thought Romney was as good as Guiliani this whole time? You’re not fooling anyone who read anything you had to say here last year.

    By the way, Sparky is my real name. I’m a puppy.

  72. Don’t call DDS. The thought of you on the other side of my cell line is creepy. Creepy indeed.

  73. Horst’s puppy, actually.

  74. Sorry Cesar, I don’t respond to people who use phoney names on-line.

    And I, for one, am gratful. I was getting so discouraged by the witty, incisive and devastating remarks that Dondi would send my way. I was overmatched in knowledge, wit, intelligence. Not getting embarrased by Dondi has meade my visits to Hit and Run so much more enjoyable.

    I wish I could be a wise, knowledgeable urbanite sophisticate like Eric Dondero.

  75. Amen to Huckabee going down.

  76. Eric, do you have Prince Albert, in a can?

  77. No, I didn’t think Romney was as good as Giuliani “all along.”

    My opinion changed dramatically back last August when William Weld backed Romney.

  78. Cesar,

    “Dondero, lets get back on topic. Please tell us how Romeny is socially liberal since hes both pro-life (which you used to say was THE issue!) and supports banning gay marriage?”

    It’s obvious…he’s lying.

  79. I’d say Romney has the upper hand over McCain for the nomination. There is a lot of McCain-hate in the Republican Party, while people just sort of disdain Mitt Romney.

  80. you see, I really don’t get that. why do you care who is backing who? can you not make up your own mind?

  81. “McCain is gonna win Dondero. Jeez, every candidate you back loses, so of course you can only go after smaller fish like Ron Paul to make yourself feel better.”

    Eric can you back McCain next? I’d like the field to get even smaller. kthnx.

  82. Johnjackson, here’s what happened:

    Romney and Larsen were cordially discussing tax reform, when Romney starting laughing at one of the points Larsen raises (a 1% tax on all goods and services).

    Larsen accuses Romney of laughing at Cato, which has researched this and Ron Paul’s idea that you can abolish the income tax and still have the same revenue as in 2000. Romney says sure I’m laughing at Ron Paul because he wants to get rid of the CIA, FBI blah blah blah.

    Interview then ends and Larsen gets angry about Romney’s attitude. Says Romney just lost his vote, that Romney is an elitist snob and “a-hole” , Romney’s gots his millions and doesn’t care about the tax burden on ordinary people, this goes on for about 4 minutes. Larsen says now he’s going to vote for Ron Paul.

    Good stuff.

  83. No joe, my real name is Ahmed Hassan Hussein, and I hate America. I’m trying to take down Rittberg for my Islamofascist buddies back home, inshallah.

    We must go after Dondero. If we can hit that bull’s-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate!

  84. Uh, oh. Ron Paul isn’t doing too good. 3% with 12% precincts reporting.

    Ouch! That’s gotta hurt.

    Maybe this should teach us a lesson. Calling Martin Luther King a “Gay Pedophile” is not a winning strategy even in the GOP primaries.

  85. Eric Dondero:

    Have you ever collected a paycheck that wasn’t signed by a politician?

  86. McCain’s opened up a bit of a lead in the early going 34-31 with 12% reporting.

  87. Did anyone really think Rudy had ANY chance to be the GOP nominee? If so, let me give you a rule of thumb that will improve your predictions in the future: the GOP does NOT nominate anyone who is pro-choice for President.

    That was and is the end of the story. The Pro-Lifers and the NRA have the strongest veto power over any candidate on any single issue (the part with the most power across issues or over several issues are the pro-business factions [witness the absolute mauling of Huckabee when his candidacy showed life]).

  88. I live in southern Florida on the Gulf coast side and untill recently the only signs I saw in yards were Ron Paul signs. Recently I have seen a couple of Romney signs and one McCain sign but still not as many as for Ron Paul. I also here Ron Paul radio commercials quite a lot. So take it from an actual Floridian Ron Paul dinero has been spent in Florida.

  89. Eric you still haven’t answered my question. And when you do try to do it 1) on topic 2)without giving me your life story and 3)without name-dropping. Thanks!

  90. Oh Lord, I ask so little of you…Well, actually I ask a lot and don’t believe much in you, but PUH-LEEZE demonstrate to me that there is SOME justice in the world and hand Mitt Romney a defeat (both in FL and overall, but let’s start in FL)…I have to believe that the American people are not THAT easily duped…

  91. While I can understand the desire of some to “get serious” and quit backing Ron Paul, I think you misunderstand much of the meaning of the Ron Paul candidacy. I know he isn’t going to be the next president. But the more support he gets, the more the Republican party will have to give up its imperialist dreams and tax & spend fantasies. Even if the GOP gives up those dreams by only 3%, it will have been worth it.

    I don’t expect the GOP to return to my line of thinking unless I stand up for what I believe in. It’s a longview. Please understand.

  92. I know Mr. Nice Guy, you want the Republicans to nominate someone who cannot win. Not that I am a big Romney fan but McCain or Huckabee would be much, much worse.

  93. Amen Lamar. I’m not voting for RP, but I’ve been consistent here that if you are a libertarian, you’d be daft not to vote for the man. It’s been a loooong time since a GOP candidate who can raise money like him and get attention like him has ever equated himself so blatantly as a libertarian…This is your chance to have your voice heard…

  94. “live in southern Florida on the Gulf coast side and untill recently the only signs I saw in yards were Ron Paul signs. Recently I have seen a couple of Romney signs and one McCain sign but still not as many as for Ron Paul. I also here Ron Paul radio commercials quite a lot. So take it from an actual Floridian Ron Paul dinero has been spent in Florida.”

    Well the signs are just from supporters. Are you sure the radio ads weren’t from a grassroots PAC? I’m pretty sure the campaign did bother running ads there. I’m curious now.

  95. What? No one wants to kick Dondero in the nuts? Geez, I thought that was going to be easy money. If I were going to be in Angleton, Texas soon I would do it myself. But it will be a few months until I can get down that way.

  96. “Well the signs are just from supporters. Are you sure the radio ads weren’t from a grassroots PAC? I’m pretty sure the campaign did bother running ads there. I’m curious now.”

    Well, I can tell you that at the end of the ad Ron’s voice announced “I’m Ron Paul and I approve this message.” I can tell the ads did not cost a great deal to produce but they were clean and too the point. They were well done but not fancy.

  97. PIRS-You must be nuts…In the past here I’ve said that I should be rooting like crazy for Romney, because he is WAY easier to beat than McCain. A lot of non-Gopers like McCain. And for the hard-core Gopers who don’t like him, what are they gonna do, vote for HRC? Not in a million years.

    Romney would be easy pickings for a ruthless HRC campaign with lotsa money and press influence. His crazy and repeated flip-flops would be pointed out over, and over, and over. But worse, since even many of his supporters kind of are uneasy about his flip flops, they will not contest it with much vigor. He would be branded quicker than a product at a marketeers convention…

    But I can’t help it. The guy is so unprincipled I want to see him lose at every level, lest his flip-flopping pandering induce others to follow suit…

  98. Is this Dondero chap saying that, if it wasn’t for those damn newsletters, Paul would have won Florida?

  99. McCain is actually the only hope for the GOP, unless some major scandal comes and makes either Barak or HRC unelectable between now and Nov.

    What would the Dems attack McCain on? They are for Campaign Finance and immigration reform (two areas he gets heat from the GOP). Just the war, and every GOP candidate has the same stance on that saving RP.

  100. Please tell us how Romeny is socially liberal

    I’ll bite:

    Romney supports sensible gun control-
    not only will he sign the assault weapons ban he wants to extend it to more lethal weapons.

    Romney may be pro-life in his heart (aren’t we all? even the president of NOW) but he understands that poor women can’t exercise their Constitutional Right to choose unless the more affluent support their reproductive health. RomneyCare only requires a $50 copay for abortions.

    That covers socially liberal, but where is the fiscal conservatism in his support of a centrally planned economy with massive corporate subsidies to stifle competition and innovation?

  101. PIRS – radio is cheap, and a lot of the signs are volunteer paid. The Paul campaign basically wanted to let its existing supporters know they weren’t forgotten, but that’s about it.

  102. Oh SIV you silly ideologue, Dondero has already told us true libertarians think the second-amendment issue is over-blow. /sarcasm

  103. A Romney-Clinton election would put two weasels against each other. Does anybody believe that Romney is the superior weasel? People are turned off by the Clinton weasel machine, but Romney isn’t the guy to turn them back on, because he’s a gorram weasel himself.

  104. SIV:

    That Romney is so 2004.

  105. ‘d say Romney has the upper hand over McCain for the nomination. There is a lot of McCain-hate in the Republican Party, while people just sort of disdain Mitt Romney.

    joe, I don’t think there is really as much McCain hate in the GOP as some people think. There is some for sure, but I think it’s been greatly exaggerated and at this point there is not enough of it to stop his nomination, and even if there were Romney isn’t the guy to do it.

    Likewise, that talk the other day about the McCain-ing of Clinton in the Democratic Party is a bit exaggerated as well. Clinton and McCain will be the nominees, and Clinton will win. (and I don’t say that as a supporter, just the way I see it).

  106. What would the Dems attack McCain on? … Just the war.

    That is sufficient.

  107. It IS McCain vs. Clinton, theres really little doubt when you think about it.

  108. McCain at least gives the GOP a chance to win.

  109. SIV-Romney was socially liberal when he was running for office in a socially liberal state, and he is now socially conservative when running for office within a socially conservative party. Just like he was a social conservative in Iowa, which he thought was dominated by socially conservative ideas, and an economic reformer in Michigan, which he thought was motivated by economic concerns (polls after NH stated the economy was a bigger deal than the war to more voters, so switch the packaging and presto: economic reformer campaign)

  110. The Democrats will attack McCain by 1) his crazy stance on the war 2) his age and 3) his temper. Hillary can turn him into Bob Dole v. 2.0 by the time its all over.

  111. I think virtually all the McCain hate is concentrated on the internet.

  112. …. unless some major scandal comes and makes either Barak or HRC unelectable between now and Nov.

    Hillary may have that covered on both fronts.

  113. Dondero has not emailed me for my real name. I’m hurt.

  114. “McCain is actually the only hope for the GOP”

    I have it on good authority (see Lonewacko’s 7:44 PM post) that McCain has no shot at being elected cuz he knows a Mexican.

  115. If Romney was so “socially conservative” than why did he tell a reporter with the Christian Science Monitor on adult movies in hotel chains, “it’s none of the government’s damn business.”

  116. Cesar,

    The Democrats will attack McCain by 1) his crazy stance on the war 2) his age and 3) his temper. Hillary can turn him into Bob Dole v. 2.0 by the time its all over.

    I think someone might be able to do that to McCain, but not Hillary Clinton.

  117. Votamos por McCai?ez.

  118. If Romney was so “socially conservative” than why did he tell a reporter with the Christian Science Monitor on adult movies in hotel chains, “it’s none of the government’s damn business.”

    Which Romney is that Dondero? The 2003 Romney or the 2008 Romeny?

    For that matter how come you like a pro-life candidate so much now even though you said abortion was THE domestic issue which made you support Giuliani?

  119. I’m not sure that Clinton will be the nominee, and as of recently I have hoped not.

    I do think that things like 1. winning so much of the black vote in SC and 2. Ted Kennedy’s endorsement did nothing to help Obama and hurt him in the long run…He does not want to be seen as the “black” or “liberal” candidate. It’ll be the end of his chances…I would have turned Kennedy down in a heartbeat…And if I were him I would consider a “sister souljah” episode for his own good…

  120. Dondero, if dirty movies in hotels your litmus test for socially liberal, you’re setting the bar just a wee tad too low to have any credibility.

  121. Oh my. 25% precincts reporting in now, and Ron Paul is still at 3.16%.

    Gonna be pretty funny watching the Paul fanatics trying to spin this one.

  122. I think the real question about Romney isn’t whether he’s socially conservative or liberal or fiscally conservative or liberal. Rather it’s why would anyone believe him when he claims a position, whatever it might be?

  123. I’m making one of my early projections (100% accurate so far!) and calling it for McCain.

  124. I agree he is unprincipled, he is, after all, a politician. But flip flops in and of themselves are not fatal (see also: Clinton, William Jefferson)

    I can understand why the GLBT community would have animus towards Romney but they are not usually known as loyal Republican voters. Many of them would be were it not for the fact the OGP (Once Grand Party) has been hijacked by Salafi Christians.

    Please do not misunderstand, I have no love in my heart for Mit Romney, I know he is not genuine when he speaks on a great many issues. I also get the same feeling watching him that I got when I watching Bill Clinton. He is, above all else, a pragmatist. I would (for pragmatic reasons) rather have a Republican Bill Clinton in the White House than someone like McCain or Huckabee. I don’t want McCain because he has no respect for free speech. I don’t want Huckabee because he would cement the Salafi Christians even more into the OGP than they already are.

  125. The gun grabbing Romney is 2008.I was paraphrasing a recent quote.

    He brags of passing a health care program that requires people to pay for other’s abortions.

    The only conservative GOP candidate still runnning is going to finish FLA dead last.

  126. Someone Who Doesn’t Want to Lose His Job-

    Do you think Obama could do that to McCain?

  127. Bad news, Romney closing the gap 34-33…

  128. Cheer up Ron Paul fanatics.

    If he ends up with 3.16%, you all can fudge that to 4%. And nobody is going to care any ways. So, nobody will check up on you all.

    Besides it’s only .7% less than the true number. Who is going to call you on it?

    Go ahead. Say “RON PAUL WINS 4% IN FLORIDA!!!”

  129. Oh Lord, I ask so little of you…Well, actually I ask a lot and don’t believe much in you, but PUH-LEEZE demonstrate to me that there is SOME justice in the world and hand Mitt Romney a defeat (both in FL and overall, but let’s start in FL)…I

    MNG, I’m afraid your prayer will fall on non-existent ears, but don’t despair as Romney is going to win neither Florida nor the nomination, nor the presidency for that matter.

  130. None of the Northwest Florida Counties have reported yet. Romney should do real well up there.

    We’re in for a long, long night.

    I’m standing by my prediction: Virtual tie – McCain and Romney, 33% each.

  131. Eric Dondero: Your very website encourages Ron Paul supporters to “get serious” and change their votes. Then when they do that, you spit venom at them. Are you saying that Ron Paul supporters are stupid because they bought into the arguments contained on your webpage?

  132. “I think virtually all the McCain hate is concentrated on the internet.”

    I guess you don’t listen to Rush Limbaugh. Rush is much worse on McCain than he is on HRC.

  133. Obama’s greatest strength and weakness is his inexperience.

    Romney’s greatest strength and weakness is you don’t know where he stands.

  134. “I don’t want Huckabee because he would cement the Salafi Christians even more into the OGP than they already are.”

    I think Romney, in his actions and words of late, would be happy to be the standard bearer of such folks PIRS…My take on Romney is he’s double damned: a fake, and faking it to the wrong, crazy side on most issues…

  135. Romney should do better with the Absentees. Those won’t be in for a few hours.

    Barone is saying Absentee could be 1/3rd of the total Florida vote.

  136. Hannity hates McCain as well. It’s a little funny listening to the man who spent every day lambasting John Kerry for flip flopping now give Mitt a free pass.

    Doesn’t anybody have a memory? Or at least class?

  137. Why would Romney do better with absentees?

  138. Lamar Alexander is that you?

    I thought you were a Senator from Tenn. Of course, nobody can tell, since you only use your first name here at H&R.

  139. I think he meant the absent minded.

  140. If Hannity, Limbaugh and Dondero all hate McCain, he must be doing something right…

  141. “Cheer up Ron Paul fanatics.

    If he ends up with 3.16%, you all can fudge that to 4%. And nobody is going to care any ways. So, nobody will check up on you all.”

    He could get 28% and that would still translate into zero delegates since it’s winner take all.

    He’s running for delegates to crash the convention. All the more reason to vote for him on Super Tuesday.

  142. Absentees traditionally more conservative.

  143. “Obama’s greatest strength and weakness is his inexperience.”
    SIV is hitting on something here. I think the reason why a senator has not been president in so long is they usually have so much experience, which usually means a long voting record one can be called on…In fact, I’m not sure it will hurt him at all…

  144. Lamar is a childhood nickname comprised of a portion of my last name. Here in Florida people assume I’m mocking Lawson Lamar. I suspect it has more to do with Revenge of the Nerds, though.

  145. i can’t imagine the logic that says that “absentees” are more conservative.

  146. We’re now up to 30% of the vote reporting in, and Ron Paul is STILL AT 3.1% according to Politico.com

    I think it’s safe to say the Ron Paul people are in for a very tough night.

  147. @ Lamar —

    Dondero just likes calling people stupid. You know the type.

  148. Cesar: I don’t know whether Obama could (except on the war, where the answer is yes). That’s a good question.

    I actually don’t think Obama would need to in order to win vs McCain though. (And I think Hillary Clinton would lose to McCain regardless of what she tried.)

    Could be wrong.

    MNG: Any Democrat will effectively have the Ted Kennedy endorsement in November, but by that point (and because it’s a foregone conclusion), it really won’t make a difference. It might help Obama in the Primary, which I think is his tougher contest.

    By the way, I follow Cesar and call this for McCain.

  149. Hey Dondi, what about your man Giulani at 15%?

  150. Michael BArone just said on Fox that the Absentees are breaking better for Romney.

  151. Yeah, but it doesn’t make sense….

  152. Hey Cesar, how about giving us a full name, instead of some phoney nickname from HBO’s “Rome.”

  153. 33% and counting, McCain is widening the gap.

  154. Hey Dondero why is Giuliani at 15%?

  155. Even if McCain wins in a squeaker in FL, one has to question his ability to win where the governor and GOP Senator aren’t backing him.

  156. “It’s a little funny listening to the man who spent every day lambasting John Kerry for flip flopping now give Mitt a free pass.

    Doesn’t anybody have a memory? Or at least class?”

    I saw the heading for an article on NRO the other day by Krauthammer reading “Capricious Candidate: One can change his mind on some things, but all things?” I thought, at last, someone on NRO has seen through Romney’s fakery…The article was about John Edwards. Unbelieveable!

  157. You mean Cesar isn’t even a real nickname?

  158. Oooh, all the Counties around Jacksonville, Volusia, Flagler, St. Johns are solidly Pro-Romney. Yet, Duval hasn’t reported in yet. If Jax goes big for Romney, watch out!!

  159. McCain has this in the bag now.

  160. C’mon Jacksonvilee! C’mon Navy Guys. Put Mitt Romney over the top!! You all can do it.

    Let’s go Jax!!

  161. Lamar,

    If he wins Florida, he’s probably got everything west of Missouri (aside from Utah, Wyoming and Nevada…and maybe Idaho) wrapped up. Texas and California are gonna vote for him, not Taxachussetts Romney.

  162. I agree, he’s got this one stashed away in the ol’ goiter.

  163. By the way, I follow Cesar and call this for McCain.

    Hey now, I called it for McCain at 7:20 so get in line! 🙂

  164. Very latest McCain at 33.6% Romney at 32.7%.

  165. Mr Dondero,

    What is Paul’s percentage? While you are at it, how should Paul’s supporters feel about that percentage? Feel free to repeat the answer over and over.

  166. Dondero’s cheering is so sad.

  167. Lamar: You could be right. Even if McCain wins tonight (which I think he probably will), Romney is by no means out, though I expect more endorsements will begin coming in for McCain. Again, just a guess.

  168. Are there multiple Donderos tonight or just one Dondero on speed?

  169. Absentees traditionally more conservative.

    Which counts Romney out…

  170. “Dondero’s cheering is so sad.”

    So is the fact that you use a PHONEY NAME!

    Give me your real name, phone number, and address before I’ll respond to any of your points.

  171. Correction:

    I follow Cesar who himself followed Brian Courts in calling this for McCain.

  172. Oops, Paul just slipped to 3.08%.

    Could he go under 3%?

    Nah. Not even Paul could sink that low.

  173. Speaking of Edwards: when the f*ck will that guy drop out already!?

  174. So Giuliani spends 40 or 50 million dollars on his campaign, and ends up with 15% of the vote in Florida. What a colossal waste of money.

  175. stop talking to me Dondero

  176. Democratic Primaries: 59% female voters
    GOP Primaries: 56% male voters

  177. Dondi must be crying for backing a loser twice. I hope he backs HRC next just to ensure her downfall.

  178. MNG,

    When Obama or Hillary bribes him the most to.

  179. at 827 p.m eastern time, the website that Yahoo Answerer put the link to has romney 236,000 to McCain 233,000

    (2029 -> 251 to 243 Romney over mcain

  180. Speaking of Edwards: when the f*ck will that guy drop out already!?

    I’d think probably after next Tuesday and he definitely won’t make it out of February.

  181. “Oops, Paul just slipped to 3.08%. Could he go under 3%?”

    I don’t think anyone here expected Paul to do well tonight, Dondero. You’re just making yourself look even more like a tool each time you post a comment like that.

    Not that almost everyone here doesn’t already know you’re a tool, and a hack, and a liar, and a political whore; but there might be a couple people who are in the dark about you, so you should play it close to the vest.

  182. “I think Romney, in his actions and words of late, would be happy to be the standard bearer of such folks [Salafi Christians] PIRS…My take on Romney is he’s double damned: a fake, and faking it to the wrong, crazy side on most issues…”

    If he gets the nomination he can “evolve” enough to atract a majority or pluriaty. Once he actually gets ellected he could “evolve” on the social issues the way Bill Clinton did. Once he is in office the OGP is stuck with him. When he runs for re-election he is almost certain to get the nomination and then he is running to get all voters. Given his stances before I think he is truly more of a social liberal and fiscal conservative. I think when he is actually in office he will govern that way.

  183. Eric Dondero-Rittberg, for every gloat you bleat, I will make one more Call 4 Paul.

  184. Hey Kolohe,

    We’re already in the 300k’s and McCain’s still leading.

  185. Democratic Primaries: 59% female voters

    I noticed that it was pretty much 60-40 in SC too… I was wondering if that is the typical Democratic voter gender ratio?

  186. Brett:

    So Giuliani spends 40 or 50 million dollars on his campaign, and ends up with 15% of the vote in Florida. What a colossal waste of money.

    No, it’s just a clever strategy involving the element of surprise. They won’t suspect me if I continually lose to Ron Paul.

  187. Do you think this is actually Donderdo and not some troll? Would any really serious person harp on the percentage totals over and over with playground-level analysis/gloat? What normal human being could just NOT get past the fact that part of blogs is people using handles? Could anyone expect the regulars here to just forget his raving posts about Guliania beings so great because he was pro-choice, how RP was evil because he was pro-life, how great Ann Stone and Republicans for Choice are, and then to suddenly back a very anti-choice candidate? I think it’s just some contrarian dumbass at this point (unless this Donderdo is actually a neanderthal who has somehow escaped the extinction that so plagued his kin)….

  188. wow, a Florida election where the lead switched back and forth enroute to a phot finish. Who woulda thunk?

  189. Let’s call Eric Dondero for what he is: a bitter pseudo libertarian who will do anything to oppose any true libertarian idea while claiming to be a libertarian. Come on, Eric. It’s okay to come out of the closet as the neocon you really are.

    Perhaps if you really were a libertarian you wouldn’t have been pushed out of Paul’s organization. That’s really why you’re so rabidly anti-Paul.

  190. Hey guys – don’t mock Dondero, he’s a real American Hero!!

  191. Rudy stops paying his staff and Dondero jumps ship to Romney. Today his new man ran away from a question about taxing social security recipients. He won’t give a damn about cutting spending. That’s what makes it pathetic.

  192. According to the Florida DOS Romney is:
    http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/

  193. Miami/Dade has not reported anything yet. Not good for my guy Mitt.

    But Jax should put Mitt back in the game, after Miami/Dade reports in.

    And then there’s always Pensacola.

  194. You’d have to expect the Ron Paul rEVOLution would struggle in an election where 75% of the vote is cast by people 45 years and older. I knew they called FL “God’s Anteroom”, but I didn’t know it was quite that skewed!

    As the posters said above, it made more sense to concentrate on states where he can get some delegates.

  195. Handles something leftover from the 1970s CB days

    .. naw .. in the CB days I was known as “Long Haired Crud” ..

    .. FYI ..

    .. Hobbit

  196. Al N,

    Paul’s association with Dondero probably bugs me more than anything. How could anyone have put up with this douchebag?

  197. Geez, Al, didn’t no there was such a thing as a Pro-Drug Legalization/Pro-Choice “NeoCon.”

    Is that some sort of new fangled ideology?

    All the NeoCons I know are all Pro-Lifers.

    Hey, Ron Paul is a Pro-Lifer. Must be a NeoCon.

  198. Dondero thats a lie. According to Plitico Miami-Dade has reported 10% in and Romney is being creamed by McCain, 45%-11 (!). Your boy is done.

  199. The Florida Young Republicans have always been one of the biggest YR groups in the Nation. The Florida GOP is much more youth-oriented than GOPs in Texas or other States.

    Romney is doing well with younger GOP voters.

  200. Romney is getting killed in South Florida. I guess pandering against “amnesty” will do that to you.

  201. Hey Augustus, or is it Caligula. One can never tell cause all you ever use is “Cesar.”

    Anyway, I admit it. My guy Mitt is going to get creamed in Miami/Dade. But I’ve got hope that Jax and Pensacola will bring him back up. There’s a huge GOP vote in Jax.

  202. Yep, and 44% of GOP voters are over 60.

  203. Eric, Eric, Eric,

    Once again you prove what a moron you are. You’re calling two Massachusetts Republicans, who’ve won elections in one of the most socialist states in the union, ‘libertarian’? Actually, I guess you’re not, you’re calling them “fiscal cons”, which you seem to equate with libertarianism. I don’t understand how any economic libertarian could sign a law that cartelizes the medical insurance industry, especially when he was probably aware that it was guaranteed to wreck the budget. Of course, you are awfully loose with your terms, so perhaps the fiscally conservative does not mean “frugal with other people’s money”, but rather “sometimes holds back from spending like a drunken sailor”. I guess such a loose definition would include Romney.

    And Ron Paul an anarchist? Wow, he’s sure done a great job of hiding it in the books he’s written and speeches he’s given. But hey, you were in his inner circle for ten years right? So you knew him pretty well?

    I thought you hated anarchists? But you worked for one for how many years before you figured out he was one?

    Eric, I don’t mind you coming here and spouting off. If anything you make it easier for me to convince people that the republican party is no friend of liberty. But human decency compells me to beg you to stop. Every time you try to make an intellectual argument, you figuratively shit your pants. All you do is make yourself look stupid. Oh, and cause non-libertarians to think that libertarians are abusive, lying assholes.

    You are a moron and ill suited for debating people. There is nothing to be ashamed of in that. It’s like having really bad asthma and being unable to play football. When an asthmatic kid pines to play football, one feels sorry for him. When he insists on trying out for the team and takes a swing at anyone who tries to help him when he has an attack on the field, then one’s sympathy runs out.

    So my recommendation to you is to just stop. Yes, you like political power. Be content with such posts as your position on your local draft-board (BTW, nothing says libertarian like maintaining the engines of conscription). If you keep your moth shut and focus on your core competencies like standing in the cold begging passers-by for signatures, you will do fine. But the political power that requires good oratory and intelligent discourse is, I fear, far beyond your grasp, and your refusal to accept that makes you look like a fool.

    Again, what you do is up to you, but I recommend that you learn to be at peace with being a moron, and stop shitting yourself all over the web. It’s embarrassing to all concerned.

  204. Dondero is a major tool if they thinks Navy guys are going to vote for Romney.

  205. haha, there is no candidate out there that was pro-legalization except for Paul.

  206. Hey Cesar, how about giving us a full name, instead of some phoney nickname from HBO’s “Rome.”

    This is so magnificently stupid that it must be repeated. Are you a performance artist, Dondero?

  207. I’ve never seen a neocon wearing a G-string. Therefore, anyone wearing a G-string cannot be a neocon.

  208. Hey Augustus, or is it Caligula.

    Salad?

    Do you think this is actually Donderdo and not some troll? Would any really serious person harp on the percentage totals over and over with playground-level analysis/gloat?

    I think MNG is right…

  209. Chris,

    That would…ironically, exclude Giuliani.

  210. According to the Florida DOS Issue 1 is at 63% it needs 60% to pass.
    http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/

  211. Of course Florida isn’t Paul territory, it’s stuffed to the gills with oldsters and mortgage fuck-ups, everyone of whom have their hand out for federal money.

    We should let the Cubans have the whole state. Think we could talk Spain into taking it back?

  212. PIRS-I doubt it. Studies show that politicians actually keep most of their election promises…

    I also don’t think that Bill Clinton made so many and so much drastic flip flops. He was a nuancing bastard for sure (I worked [volunteered] for Jerry Brown in 92 and that dirty bastard put some serious dirty tricks on Brown, so I doubt few have more legit Bill-hate than I do), but Mitt has flopped his position on:
    Gun control
    Abortion
    Reagan’s legacy
    Stem Cell research
    Emergency Contraception
    Gay Rights
    Mimimum Wage
    Taxes

    Jesus, I’m getting tired just typing this…Clinton was a Protean bastard, but noone can flip and flop as far and much as old Mitt…It defies understanding, really…

  213. Mr Dondero,

    Please refrain from referring to “Caligula” and “Romney getting creamed” in the same post. You are spoiling future episodes of “The Amazing Adventures of Cap’n Libertee”.

  214. Nah, Eric. Totally wrong. Every GOP candidate up there except Paul is a neocon, and I believe a couple of them are pro-babykilling. Silly me. I should have expected you to use tactics like that to deny the obvious.

    Neocons are the ones supporting the war of aggression to spread America’s special brand of socialism-lite. Neocons are the ones who like to kill anyone who doesn’t bow down before Israel.

    Paul is the one who opposes not only propping up Israel, but also propping up NON-Israli countries.

  215. If it is a Dondero parody, he’s got the imitation down really well.

  216. hey RP Supporter,

    Stop ragging on Florida, its got awesome beaches

  217. Dondero –

    Didn’t you know Ron Paul was a vile racist when you worked for him? I’m just curious how that could have gotten under your radar.

  218. Hey, Cesar. Didn’t you use to be the Joker on the old Batman series? I loved the way you put white makeup over your mustache. Didn’t Dondero once play a herring that the Penguin stepped on?

  219. Hey Dondero,

    Do you remember saying this:

    Folks, if Hillary Clinton is winning in Florida, it’s all over. The Republicans cannot win without Florida.

    Rudy is our best chance. Perhaps our only chance. But even with Rudy, it’s going to be an enormous struggle.

    If we don’t rally around Rudy quick, our entire Nation will go to the shits in the next four years.

    Think major economic depression brought about by huge tax increases.

    Think completely socialized health care, that’s mandatory for all Americans.

    Think Radical Islamic Immams flying on planes from Minneapolis to Denver, and scaring the shit out of the passengers with their Prayers to Allah, 5 minutes before boarding time.

    Think stringent political correctness codes on all college campuses outlawing “hate speech” by such entities as the College Republicans.

    Think the Fairness Doctrine.

    That’s what we are in for, if we don’t all stop this foolishness of Rudy-bashing, and start rallying behind the only guy that stands a chance against the very worst human being ever to seek the Presidency of the United States.

    Here’s a link for you in case you have trouble remembering where you said that.

    Now, with that statement in mind, how’s your pal Giuliani doing?

  220. 44% reporting, 35-32 McCain at CNN.

  221. PIRS: As I said before, I have information that electronic voting machines in Pinellas County automatically voted Yes on Amendment One. I support that amendment, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a challenged to the screwed up computers.

  222. Ron Paul on Florida:

    “So, while the media will focus on the results from Florida, and probably take down the campaign of my friend Rudy in the process, those results are less important to you and me. Let them fight in Florida while we bring our message to Americans in other areas, like the economically hard-hit state of Maine.”

  223. I love the beach as much as anyone, but I think the pork barrel survivors of the greatest generation will make their best national contribution by becoming compost in South Florida.

  224. Dondero is a Neoconservative Alex Jones. He makes up conspiracy theories that the establishment candidates would be good for Libertarians or Conservatives.

  225. Hillary Clinton is giving her acceptance speech. I am not listening to the content. However, just from her tone-of-voice, I don’t see how she’ll be able to continue to compete with Obama. It’s like an ice pick to the temple.

  226. Can’t we get through one election in this state without things completely screwing up?

    (FWIW, I voted yes on Amendment One. It’s screwed up, but it’s better than what we have now.)

  227. So Dondero claims he switched to Romney in August when William Weld endorsed him (see 7:52 PM post). But Andrew Reilly brings up a thread from last August where Dondero is still soiling himself over how wonderful Giuliani is, and it turns out that Weld endorsed Romney last _January_. (http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2007/01/09/weld_backs_romney_for_oval_office/)

    I’m beginning to have some slight suspicions that Dondero isn’t completely honest about this….

  228. Guys, I’m on Cricket Wireless. Instead of addressing me here with your pussy, anonymous handles, you can use this form to send your pussy, anonymous comments to me via text message.

    My number is: 832-896-9505

  229. Someone –

    Yes, I also hear Hillary’s voice in the background. It is, as you say, almost unbearable.

  230. Two Observations
    1. CNN’s coverage is fucking awesome.
    2. People just do not like Mitt Romney. McCain’s personality is going to win him this primary, and most of the cast offs from Guiliani’s campaign.

    The evidence for this 2nd observation

    McCain won 38% of the people who said the Economy was the most important to 32% according to CNN exit polls. My theory is that “The Economy” is a stock answer for people who have no concrete reason for supporting a certain candidate. Even though Romney is arguably superior to McCain (who is open about his ignorance) people who care about it support McCain. Why? Because they just like the guy and do not trust or like Romney.

  231. Cesar,

    (100% accurate so far!)

    I’m not sure you get to call an 6% Obama victory prediction in South Carolina “accurate.”

  232. Mohammed Brannigan | January 29, 2008, 7:54pm | #
    No joe, my real name is Ahmed Hassan Hussein, and I hate America. I’m trying to take down Rittberg for my Islamofascist buddies back home, inshallah.

    We must go after Dondero. If we can hit that bull’s-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate!

    Careful what you’re joking about online guys. There are reports that a former Marine was arrested under the Homegrown Terrorists Act. (I don’t agree with the views of the guy arrested but I disagree with the act more.)

    What? No one wants to kick Dondero in the nuts? Geez, I thought that was going to be easy money. If I were going to be in Angleton, Texas soon I would do it myself. But it will be a few months until I can get down that way.

    I’d offer but unlike Dondero, I’m a real libertarian and I don’t initiate force.

  233. Eric,

    I’m certainly not using a pussy anonymous handle. But I’d rather use a pussy anonymous handle than use pussy tactics and dishonest arguments.

  234. joe-

    I did get the winner right though!

  235. “Because they just like the guy and do not trust or like Romney.” How could they trust someone who has changed his position SO FAR on THAT MANY major positions?

    I thought I heard that whoever wins FL gets all the delegates…Is that true?

  236. Did Ron Paul just diss the State of Florida? “Not important.” ? Wow. That’s quite a thing for Paul to say. Wonder how that makes his Florida supporters feel.

    (BTW, the post above a couple posts up is not mine. Someone using my name.)

  237. Chutzpah is the word of the hour for Ron Paul.

    He gets a pitiful 3% of the vote there, and then turns around and badmouths the state.

  238. What about Giuliani and your above statement from the archives provided by Andrew?

  239. On cnn.com it shows that nearly half of voters were 60 or above. We are ruled by people whose pants come up to their necks folks…

  240. Dondero –

    So how did you manage to work for Ron Paul?

  241. Yes, you DID, Cesar! Bully!

    I have to agree about Hillary’s voice. She’s YELL ING to try to MAKE UP FOR the lack of genuine ENTHUSIASM in that ROOM.

    yay, yay.

    I’m a little disappointed. I really LIKE Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, and there she is with Hillary.

  242. “Chutzpah is the word of the hour for Ron Paul.”

    Chutzpah is the word for any and all presidential candidates all the time.

  243. Wow this is close.
    According to the Florida DOS there is now a .2% spread between McCain and Romney.
    http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/

  244. Here’s a good source of Mitt’s flips and flops from the Log Cabin Republicans, which makes me strangely uncomfortable…not that there is anything wrong with that!). But you have to take a look at the side by side quotes site that J sub D supplied here a few weeks ago…I don’t have it, but it is actually hilarious…

  245. “On cnn.com it shows that nearly half of voters were 60 or above. We are ruled by people whose pants come up to their necks folks…”

    Mr. Nice guy, you have to understand. This is called Florida. There is some incorect inflormation floating out there about the origin of that name. Some think it is Latin or Spanish for “flowery”. No I tell you. It is actually an ancient word for “Place wear old people go to retire.”

  246. Ugh… A Clinton speech clip again!

    Owtch! My pore head!

  247. Whooooo! Those Jackson Navy Boys go for McCain! Whooooo! How does it feel Rittberg?

  248. I thought it was

    “Florida…where America goes to die.”

  249. PIRS: As I said before, I have information that electronic voting machines in Pinellas County automatically voted Yes on Amendment One. I support that amendment, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a challenged to the screwed up computers.

    I thought I read that there’s only 1 E voting machine per precinct and they’re to be used for the blind. I’ll try to find the link.

  250. I’m beginning to have some slight suspicions that Dondero isn’t completely honest about this….

    …or about anything else that comes out of his arse.

  251. Miche:

    Interesting….the people I spoke to are visually impaired (i.e., old people).

  252. In the Florida County in which I live there is now a law that requires paper ballots.

  253. Al, I was with Ron Paul for 12 years, Personal Trave Aide. I’m now ashamed that I ever worked for the man. The stories I could tell you about him? You’d be shocked. He’s not nearly the man people believe him to be.

  254. MSNBC is suggesting a Giuliani endorsement of McCain as early as tomorrow.

    (I know the sentence started with “MSNBC” but really – I have no punchline.)

  255. Time magazine is reporting that Rudy will endorse McCain as early as tomorrow.

    There goes your sinecure, Eric. You better get on the phone with the McCain Campaign ASAP.

  256. Man, if Florida only counts for symbolism, she lost.

    What a classless little stunt, going back on her promise not to campaign there, and that sad show in that little room, yelling at those dispirited supporters is some lousy symbolism.

    What has Obama been hitting Clinton on lately?

    Say anything to win.

    Unethical.

    Sense of entitlement.

    Hillary’s biggest problem is that people like Obama better. How do you think her little performance and attempted cheat in Florida is going to strike people?

  257. It looks like McCain is pulling ahead. I’m confused though, why would military people be in favor of Romney? McCain is the only person I can ever recall raising the issue of soldier disability pay and treatment of soldiers after wounded in battle. Does wanting to double Gitmo, and saying Gitmo, make people think military people want Romney?

  258. I’m leaving the country and not coming back until the last baby boomer is dead and buried. White-haired fascists, all of them.

  259. Floridian centrists will resent Obama for telling us to screw off during the primaries.

  260. joe: Agreed, almost. I think her real problem is that people like anyone better.

  261. Time is now reporting that Giuliani will endorse McCain. Looks like a McCain-Giuliani ticket. Romney gets his just desserts for being an arrogant prick. The MM gets to turn on McCain. Conservatives will bitch, piss and moan about the ticket being too liberal. No matter who wins, the American people will get their pocket picked. Only thing to do now is grab some popcorn and enjoy the food fight

  262. It’s McCain, says CNN. Blech.

  263. Meanwhile I really thought Eric Dondero wanted to know who he was talking to. Not really.

  264. http://www.politico.com looks like they may have called it. (At least McCain’s name is now in red…)

  265. Joe, don’t tell any of that to This local political blog.

  266. Paying attention to Florida will help Hillary in the Prez election, and will destroy Obama’s chances here if he gets the nomination. Stupid, stupid, stupid Howard Dean. The electoral version of his goddam monkey shriek.

  267. Paul is killing Thompson.

  268. Help Hillary win in Florida during the prez election, that is.

  269. Harpua: I don’t think McCain will pick Giuliani. He’ll pick someone more traditionally conservative than himself to boost his strength among the Republican base.

    More conservative how, I’m not sure. One guess is that Huckabee is campaigning as much for McCain’s VP as anything. Someone here suggested Florida governor Crist as a possibility as well.

  270. McCain chooses Lindsey Grahm. I’m 70% sure of that.

  271. Anything that touches Huckabee is immediate poison to any support among independents that McCain has earned.

  272. Lamar: Really? You think that Floridians will penalize Obama for following the Democratic Party guidelines? That would be pretty surprising to me.

  273. Yes. Floridians want someone to fight for them, not piss on them because a GOP-controlled legislature changed the primary date.

  274. I think her real problem is that people like anyone better.

    Seems to be the theme around here but I’m not buying it. For all the people that don’t like her, she’s managed to do pretty well so far. If she was that disliked Obama should have run away with this by now. I think the negatives, while real, are greatly exaggerated. She will win the nomination and then you guys will have to explain how she managed to do that when everyone hates her.

  275. Dondero –

    Your conscience didn’t bother you when you were taking money from Ron Paul for 12 years? I don’t quite get it.

  276. Hillary is the inverse of Ron Paul. The people that hate her really, really, really, really hate her so much they cringe whenever they think of her. Ron Paul people love him, love him, love him. ….

  277. I think there are some problems with the Huckabee VP position for McCain as well, but I do think he will choose a more conservative nominee (however you measure that sort of thing) than himself.

    Could be wrong, though and it never pays to vote against Cesar in the prediction game.

  278. Oh c’mon. You’ve never taken a paycheck just to get by? Add on to the ol’ resume?

  279. Guiliani just took one last dig at Paul (and his supporters) in his concession speech.

  280. If it’s McCain v. Clinton, there’s a huge opportunity for a third-party candidate.

  281. Unfortunately, it’s more likely to be a turd party candidate.

  282. “””Chutzpah is the word of the hour for Ron Paul.”””

    Word of the hour for Guiliani? How do you say total moron who sets himself up for failure in Yiddish?

  283. Brian: I certainly don’t think everyone hates her (my hyperbole aside), but certainly among those outside of Democrats she has some pretty high negatives. These Independents and Republicans are a serious problem in the general. I still think she could win the primary (where her chances are still probably about 50-50), but her negatives among Democrats even seem to be going up (no data, just an impression) lately.

  284. In Spanish you’d say “me meo”

  285. “How do you say total moron who sets himself up for failure in Yiddish?”

    Schmuck.

  286. Turd named Bloomberg?

  287. I didn’t think that was a dig. I thought that was a shout out.

  288. Yup. More precisely: Bloomberg-Hagel.

  289. OK, someone explain the Bloomberg thing to me. Is there any chance that he’ll get any votes as a third party guy? What electoral “niche” will he fill that won’t be filled in some other candidate and does he have some sort of weird charisma I hadn’t heard about or just a shitload of money?

  290. Romney is almost crying.

  291. Lamar,

    Florida isn’t a first-tier contestable state for the Democrats anymore. It’s a pretty much a red state now. If Obama wins Florida, it means he also picked up a bunch of places like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia, too.

    Florida and Missouri have both gone in the same direction since 2000. They’ll still send Democrats to Washington, especially now, but they’ll certainly not be the state that puts the Democrat over the top in a close race.

  292. Colin:
    Romney is almost crying.

    Maybe it’ll give him a Clinton-style bump in the polls.

  293. Ron Paul Lament

    Where have all the Nazis gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the Nazis gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the Nazis gone?
    NR has exposed them every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?

    Where have all the racists gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the racists gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the racists gone?
    Taken cover every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?

    Where have all the militias gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the militias gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the militias gone?
    Gone for bonkers every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?

    Where have all the wackos gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the wackos gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the wackos gone?
    Gone to churches every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?

    Where have all the voters gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the voters gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the voters gone?
    Voting for someone else one
    When will we ever learn?
    When will we ever learn?

  294. Bloomberg is part of the squishy, moderate-centrist grey area between Republicans and Democrats who brought us such inspiring “greats” (sarcasm) as Joe Lieberman, Chuck Robb, and Lincoln Chaffee.

    Yeah, the only thing he has is a shitload of money.

  295. It’s TNR, Pete.

    NR is National Review.

  296. CNN said Romney outspent McCain 10 TO 1 and still lost…

    Dude, they are just not that into you…

  297. I’m very happy tonight that 1) Il Duce of 9/11 went down to flaming defeat and 2) Mitt Romney spent a good deal of his kid’s inheritance and still lost.

    Thank you, Florida.

    I also note the silence from Dondero. Hey Dondero, how does it feel to have your great “libertarian” Rudy back McCain? Warm? Comfy? Have fun rationalizing that one.

  298. Lamar,
    I can’t find the page I earlier referred to, but here’s a May article talking about Florida’s new voting laws. Here’s an article this month referring to Crist’s push to ban E voting and the McCain endorsement.

  299. McCain didn’t even have the class to mention Ron Paul when he paid tribute to the other candidates.

    Man, I hope Ron Paul runs third party and denies McCain the Whitehouse. Even if it means Clinton winning.

  300. Al, I was with Ron Paul for 12 years, Personal Trave Aide. I’m now ashamed that I ever worked for the man. The stories I could tell you about him? You’d be shocked. He’s not nearly the man people believe him to be.

    That statement says more about your character than Ron Paul’s and it’s not flattering at all. Some of you other guys may not believe this, but I was talking with a friend about Dondero just yesterday. The stories I was told about Eric. You guys would not be shocked because, as you could imagine, it was a big mix of bad and indifferent with a good point or two. The good points were mentioned by the friend as I really haven’t any personal knowledge of Dondero’s past good deeds.

    The only Dondero I’ve known is the bombastic one he presents as on blogs.

  301. Florida isn’t a first-tier contestable state for the Democrats anymore. It’s a pretty much a red state now.

    uh, what? It’s the swingingest of the swing states, the George and Yortuk Festrunk if you will, and if anything, exactly the opposite of what you said is true.

  302. Cesar: You shouldn’t taunt him. This is no doubt a very difficult time for Eric. He may be very depressed and we should offer him our concern and support. We don’t want him to do anything to hurt himself.

  303. I mean, we’ve been talking lately how Va may finally come in play for Democrats. The dynamic in Florida is exactly the same, but even more amplified

  304. Eric,

    Your vague insinuation tactic about Dr. Paul is typical of your usual M.O. Character assassination via innuendo. I highly doubt Paul is perfect, but I certainly know your character by the behavior I’ve seen you show over the past few years I’ve been aware of you. I imagine that anything you would be “ashamed” of is actually a positive trait.

  305. With Ohio+VA they don’t need Florida.

  306. Kolohe,

    I think there is a nation-wide shift towards the Democrats, and in Florida, too. That’s a short-term thing.

    Over a longer time horizon, Florida is becoming more red. This particular election cycle, Florida may be winnable for the Democrats, but if so, so would states all across the country, like Iowa and several interior west states and Virginia. The Democrats would win several other states that Bush won in 2004, before they would win Florida.

    And yet, this year, they could win Florida, too. And if so, the Democrat would win by such a blowout that it wouldn’t matter which way Florida went.

  307. I don’t see Va going Dem in this election (even with a [mark] Warner bounce). The only Va goes Rep in the next eight years is a 49 state reganesque sweep by an incumbent President Obama in 2012 (which is getting also increasingly unlikely, to my dismay)

    I see Fl going Dem due to a Cuban community that is increasing getting over it, a net increase in geriatrics from other states, and a national anti-republican tailwind. I see Ohio going dem just due to this same tailwind.

  308. Or I could be brief and too the point, like Cesar.

  309. VA can very well go Dem not because of any great shift but because of the simple fact the RPVA is imploding from incompetence.

    They could have ran Tom Davis against Mark Warner but they choose to have a convention instead of a primary so they can run Jim Gilmore.

    They haven’t won a state-wide election sans Jon Warner in three cycles. They even lost the State Senate this year.

    An incompetent state party+organization in a year that already favors the Democrats means it could very well be a battleground state.

    From what I understand the situation is similar in Ohio.

  310. joe-
    i agree with your and cesar’s math. OH+VA > FL.

    What I don’t see is this Over a longer time horizon, Florida is becoming more red

    Immigrants are no longer Cuban, and the Cubans are starting to not be so hung up on Castro.

    The influx from other states is still occuring, so in the same way that CA refugees make AZ/NV more bluish, MA refugees make NH more bluish, mid-atlantic/ohio valley/great lakes/ refugees will continue to make Fl more bluish. The difference between FL and NH/AZ is that its already close to the tipping point (as we saw in 2000).

    Yes, there probably is no particular selection bias against either democrats or republicans retiring there; but increased urbanization generally brings a shift to the left in the electorate.

    The only countervailing force is religious revivalism -> this is what keeps Fl close, esp in the northern areas (which are “Southern” culutrally) I see this force as having reached a peak in this decade, and while still strong, will diminish over the next two decades (only to revive again – there is about a forty year cycle for religious revivalism in this country since the 1650’s)

  311. Cesar-
    VA voted Republican for President even when it was voting for Wilder, Baliles, and Robb for governor. I think the relative competence of most state parties doesn’t influence the presidential selection, except if they are so inept as to screw up the ballot, for instance.

  312. The main reason why I am skeptical of Va is that in 2004, there was a notion that HI would go for Bush, due to a Rep governor and a (now questionable) poll, which even cause Cheney to fly out at the last minute. Kerry won HI by nine or ten points.

    I see the same thinking wrt Va trying to buck an historical trend

  313. Thanks Miche. I was unaware of the voting law. As it turns out, the people who I spoke to were “disabled” (old) and probably represented a small sliver of the voting public. The experiences about which I have heard anectdotal evidence lead me to say hooray for the paper ballot initiatives.

  314. Hawaii doesn’t have two Republican Senators, a Republican state Senate, AND a Republican governor as VA will have in 2009. I think, speaking purely as a political observer, people will be surprised how VA votes in 2008.

  315. Well, VA will have those things I said above except the will be Democratic Governor, Senators etc.

  316. Cesar-
    Well, I guess we’ll see in *looks it up* 280 days. One last thought – of any of the Republicans, McCain I think would be the least likely to lose Virginia due to Navy connection in Hampton Roads and the “cosmotarian” wing of each political party in NoVa.

  317. No Miche, I will not kick him in the nuts. Even if I meet him in real life. I won’t initiate force against him. But dammit it’s tempting!

  318. My dyslexia nearly triggered a post about the Florida Panthers. Anyway, I think Vokoun is getting worn out by playing far too many games.

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