The South Carolina Democratic Primary Thread

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Polls close at 7 p.m. in the first Democratic primary in the South. A Barack Obama loss here would be more of a shock than his win in Iowa or loss in New Hampshire. In the doldrums of last summer and autumn, when national polls showed Clinton with a 30-point lead, Obama occasionally led here. In Nevada, Obama won more than 80 percent of the black vote: For him to lose here he'd need to shed more than a third of that. We've been through way too many predictions of candidate doom in this race but, seriously, an Obama loss here would mean a total collapse and hint at a coming cross-demographic slaughter on Feb. 5.

Results will be here.

As a refresher, the 2004 primary results:

1. John Edwards: 44.9 percent, with 37 percent of the black vote.
2. John Kerry: 30.3 percent, with 34 percent of the black vote.
3. Al Sharpton: 9.7 percent, with 17 percent of the black vote.
4. Wesley Clark: 7.2 percent
5. Howard Dean: 4.7 percent
6. Joe Lieberman: 2.4 percent

Here is demographic data for the state and here are 2004 results maps. Counties to watch:

– Richland, 47 percent black and most of that in the city of Columbia. It cast around 34,000 votes in 2004 and went only 37 percent for Edwards. If it doesn't go big for Obama, he's in trouble.

Calhoun, the small county just south of Richland, where the vote totals in 2004 mirrored the votes in the rest of the state.

– Oconee, a 90 percent white county on the Georgia border, where Edwards scored a dominating 69 percent in 2004. It only cast around 5,500 votes that year, but the turnout and margin will tell how much white voters are turning out this time, and who for.

For this year, I'm thinking about 50 percent of the electorate will be black and 15 percent will be 18-29. Less than that means Obama's turnout machine is underperforming.

1. Barack Obama (40 percent). His lead grew to the high/mid-teens after Iowa. After two consecutive losses he's down to an average 11 point lead. The only sign of true, palm-sweating danger has appeared in a Thursday Zogby poll that showed him only 5 up over Clinton. If that was true, and momentum was with the two other candidates, the winner will pull out a 1 or 2 percent victory and might not be Obama. Someone else will have to predict that incredible upset, though: I think Obama has a floor of 37 percent and he'll get a boost from a solid win.

2. Hillary Clinton (33 percent). We won't know until her advisers wrap this up and write their books, but I feel like Clinton's used this primary, which she never expected to win (certainly not post-Iowa), as a petri dish for anti-Obama attacks. A close loss to a muddied Obama would be acceptable. A wide loss—bigger than the 9-point Iowa loss—would be a problem. A third-place finish would be a disaster, even if Obama only wins that narrowly.

3. John Edwards (26 percent).
A second-place finish would cobble together a plurality of the white vote and a good chunk—15 percent at least—of the black vote. I simply don't think Edwards can achieve that, but the poisonous Clinton-Obama fight has been good for him, and he'll do well enough to stay in until Feb. 5. Then again, no one has gone broke underestimating John Edwards this year.

4. Others (<1 percent).
Gravelmania! (Just kidding. He's not on the ballot.)

UPDATE 6:25: I'm not liveblogging, but before I head out I see that more than half of voters were black and 57 percent of all voters said Bill Clinton's campaigning influenced their vote. Obama's going to win, and it'll be interesting to see what the Bill effect was.

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  1. Prediction:

    Obama wins by 9 points or less, Hillary skilfully portrays it as a “close defeat!”

  2. Prediction:

    Double-digit win for Obama

    Edwards finishes closer than 6 points to HIllary, and maybe catches her.


  3. Obama wins by 9 points or less, Hillary skilfully portrays it as a “close defeat!”

    A tear here and there may not hurt. In fact, it would be her way to show her humanity and inner spirit.

  4. If Edwards beats Hillary, she cries.

  5. “it would be her way to show her humanity”

    Hillary has humanity?

  6. Hillary has humanity?

    Only when she needs votes.

  7. Have you guys heard that the person who asked her the question that made HRC cry in NH turned out to be an Obama supporter who voted for him. She said that she was touched by HRC, but it was only Obama who made her (the voter not HRC) truly cry from the gut because he touched her heart? She was on NPR the other.

  8. Ass “day” at the very end of the last sentence.

  9. shoooot! add not ass. My keyboard is having thoughts of its own 🙂

  10. I agree with Cesar. Obama’s gonna win, but it won’t be by ten points. The pundits will be talking about how “Hillary managed to close the gap” and she’ll come out with the momentum.

  11. She was on NPR the other Ass day?

  12. And the prophet spoke and said

    “Add not ass!”

    Tee Hee

  13. Will Edwards’ eventual endorsement of Obama have any impact?

  14. The full quote, of course…

    Add not ass for it distracts from your contemplation of the Holy.

  15. Ali wants to touch Hillary’s ass. A-HA! We KNEW you lusted after our whorish infidels women!

    I keed, I keed.

    The pundits will be talking about how “Hillary managed to close the gap” and she’ll come out with the momentum.

    Or, it she does lose big, they will say that it just shows that the state was never in play, and doesn’t tell us anything.

  16. I was surprised at the poor box office for Sexy Ass pt. 3 given the wide appeal of Sexy Ass pt. 2

  17. Darn! Enough, now, OK? LOL!

    Back to the elections kids, back to the elections, please!

    If prolefeed or J sub were around, they’d have a field day with my typo.

  18. Or should I have said:

    If prolefeed or J sub were around, they’d have a field ass day with my typo.

    Combining HRC and ass in the same thread is not a wise idea. It is an automatic thread-killer.

  19. Ali,

    I believe that is “field day with your ass.”

  20. I can’t resist the temptation to add more ass to this thread…

    http://www.jonco48.com/blog/jack_20ass.jpg

  21. I believe that is “field day with your ass.”

    I guess I have to agree on that one. 🙂

  22. If Clinton loses to Edwards, Bill will cry.

  23. John Edwards: freshly dipped in canola oil.

  24. I still say we’re on the fast track to a Mitt Romney presidency.

    Bumper sticker idea:
    “HRC – Increasing health CHOICE by using FORCE since 1992!”

  25. Actually, Ali, “ass day” is a perfect way to describe today in SC. 😉

  26. Jim Bob,

    Around my place, every day is ass day…

  27. Unintended consequences in action. But I guess you all have to thank me for making this difficult day of SC elections a little bit less painful.

  28. Combining HRC and ass in the same thread is not a wise idea.

    http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2007-10-11-Radaraimshighhitsit-thumb.jpg

  29. Now, Allah knows I’m not a fan of Hillary Clinton, but I’m watching MSNBC here and it seems that 3 out of 4 blacks in South Carolina think Hillary Clinton played the race card. The pundits here are talking about how this will hurt Hillary on Super Tuesday. Every supposed racist thing Billary have said seems to me things that wouldn’t make anyone think twice if Obama were white. But then again, maybe I, in Obama’s words, lack empathy.

    If you thought it was tough to attack the president when it would “hurt the morale of the troops”, wait till every criticism of the commander-in-chief gets one branded “racist”.

  30. I have seen that last picture before. One of my favorites from last year!

  31. Around my place, every day is ass day…

    Wow.

    Do you live in a bath house or something?

    Chalupa – shut up.

  32. Chalupa, just get the fuck off the internet.

    AR, why do you think Romney will win just not the nomination but the White House?

  33. Ayn Randian,

    No bath house.
    Just one of the benefits of having a sexy latina wife.

    😉

    Of course, many would say that my comment was a reflection of my personality more than anything else.

    Better to be a smart ass than a dumb ass I always say.

  34. Go beat off to your Ron Paul Survival Reports, Chalupa.

  35. Gather around everybody, somebody said something that might possibly not flatter the niggers.

  36. Better to be a smart ass than a dumb ass I always say.

    And who is the latter this time around may I ask? Just remember that what goes around comes around.

    Now I can’t get the word “ass” out of my head –“what goes around, comes around”… “around”…. “around” and “ass”… and “HRC”… grrrr.

  37. Grande C,

    wouldn’t make anyone think twice if Obama were white

    Are you talking about this?

    Bill Clinton this week also suggested that his wife may lose Saturday’s primary because many black voters will side with Obama. The unusually direct comment on the possible role of race in the election was in keeping with the Clintons’ bid to portray Obama as the clear favorite, thereby lessening the potential fallout if it proves true.

    Voting for president along racial and gender lines “is understandable, because people are proud when someone who they identify with emerges for the first time,” the former president told a Charleston audience.

  38. We Progressives practice identity politics so Whites and women are traitors if they vote for that fine, clean cut, young, articulate African-American man.

    I alone have the experience and intelligence to stand up to the Rightwing Republican attack Machine. Imagine what they would do to a poor Islamic cocaine dealing slum lord.

  39. I’m not really following the horserace side of things, prefering to concentrate on policy and such. You know, the things that really matter.

    However, I’d like to point out that CNN has a really neat map. John King just demonstrated it, and it’s really, really cool. Boing Boing cool! It can zoom in and zoom out, and show the totals in counties and everything neat like that.

    Gotta run, Soledad is saying something important, I can tell.

  40. Gotta run, Soledad is saying something important, I can tell.

    Who cares about what she says? 😉

  41. CNN has TVs with pie charts! Not only that, but some “bird” is now dragging pictures around on a big virtual desktop. She can drag them, zoom in and out, and everything.

    And, all Reason readers get is Dave Weigel.

  42. Ali,

    I’ll leave it up to the rest of the thread to decide who is dubbed dumb ass.

    A round ass…comes around?

    Nice.

  43. Grand Chalupa/”Beltway Libertarian” —

    Knock off the racist crap or find yourself another forum.

  44. NM- That was a rhetorical question. Isn’t it obvious? ME!

  45. Ali,

    I have known dumb asses.
    I have worked with dumb asses…

    You, my friend, are no dumb ass.

  46. AR, why do you think Romney will win just not the nomination but the White House?

    He’s the only governor in the race; the only one with executive experience in the race, really.

    It’s just that simple. history backs me up.

    FWIW, I don’t have any special insight or anything…I just decided to go with what has been shown to work for the past 45 years or so.


  47. He’s the only governor in the race; the only one with executive experience in the race, really.

    Huckabee is a Governor.

  48. Let’s make that more complete…

    Ali, I served with Jack KennedyAsses. I knew Jack KennedyAsses. Jack KennedyAsses was a friend of mine. Ali, you are no Jack KennedyAss.

  49. But I guess you all have to thank me for making this difficult day of SC elections a little bit less painful.

    Am I to assume you brought some Preparation H?

  50. Happy Jack,

    Asstounding.

  51. Asstronomical

  52. Wearing an Asscot?

  53. Ali, I’m so confused. Did you mean this ass or this ass?

  54. You are way “behind” the curve JsubD…

  55. I like the snarky, anti-CNN LoneWacko.

    Well done, NM!

  56. Speaking of Ass,

    Time for star trek

    tah

  57. Huckabee is a Governor.

    oof. My fault. You’re right.

    I’m just hoping that yokely populist goes away soon.

  58. MSNBC projected Obama the winner the moment the clock struck 7.

    LoL.

  59. It was just called by MSNBC. Damn, that was fast.

  60. He’s the only governor in the race; the only one with executive experience in the race, really.

    Huckabee is a Governor.

    The operative words are “in the race.” Huckabee’s joke campaignis over in 10 days.

  61. Good, Obama is projected to win. How the hell do they do that? Oh, exit polling. Well, why do we have elections if exit polling is all what we need? Wouldn’t it just be nice to do stay-at-home-polling-based-elections?

  62. I project J sub D’s second link the winner over his first.

    Except in Tijuana, where the two are remarkably close.

  63. J sub D- There are only a handful of asses this elections cycle: HRC, RG, JE, JM, MH and MR. Yes, MR is also an ass. A smarter one, though.

  64. You are way “behind” the curve JsubD…

    Yeah, I got here late. Didn’t even get to jump on Chalupa. You guys have all the fun. 🙁

  65. I just saw this at politico.com; sorry if it’s old news here:

    —–
    Bill Clinton doing McCain no favors

    Stumping for his wife in South Carolina, Bill Clinton said Hillary and McCain got along just famously.

    “She and John McCain are very close,” Clinton said, according to CNN. “They always laugh that if they wound up being the nominees of their party, it would be the most civilized election in American history, and they’re afraid they’d put the voters to sleep because they like and respect each other.”

    —–
    Is that the incredibly transparent attempt it appears to be to associate McCain w/ Hillary in order to hurt him in the primaries, because Bill’s afraid that in the general election McCain would kick her…uh…ass?

  66. Good, Obama is projected to win. How the hell do they do that? Oh, exit polling. Well, why do we have elections if exit polling is all what we need?

    Um… perhaps because it there were no elections there would be nobody exiting the voting booths to poll? I’m not sure I understand your complaint here.

  67. I think that was the last post Chalupa will ever make here.

  68. CNN has an exit poll page up, but it’s just blank. Apparently, 61% of voters in the primary were women. According to Bubba, that should be good for Hillary, right? 😉

  69. How awfully sweet, as far as laughing at the stupid media is concerned, it would be if Obama turns out not the winner.

    How awfully bitter, as far as I am concerned, it would be if Obama turns out not the winner.

  70. Wouldn’t it just be nice to do stay-at-home-polling-based-elections?

    What about online voting? Hm?

    That’s a neat idea, to a certain extent…although each vote would need to print somewhere so we had a paper trail.

  71. The question now, is, will Clinton come in third?

  72. Brian, I was just being sarcastic.

  73. I think that was the last post Chalupa will ever make here.

    This place would be a much better place if that happens.

  74. CNN is my sworn enemy.

    Someone who has the capability should record this and isolate Carl Bernstein just sitting and waiting there in the background.

  75. AR- I think Internet-based voting, if the technology is available, would be a really bad idea.

  76. The question now, is, will Clinton come in third?

    For those of you who have a theistic inclination, feel free to pray for that result. I will just hope like hell that HRC is a show.

  77. AR- I think Internet-based voting, if the technology is available, would be a really bad idea.

    Well, of course, I’m going to ask “why”?

    we CAN do so many other “important” things that way.

  78. Brian, I was just being sarcastic.

    I got the sarcasm, I just didn’t understand what point of it was.

    At any rate the political markets had Obama over 90% the last couple days and over 80% the last week so really there was very little doubt about the outcome in terms of who the winner was. It isn’t surprising then that all the news agencies conducting exit polling have known for hours who the winner will be.

  79. Haha Obama is at 70% Jesus thats a massacre.

  80. Brian, I actually had an additional sentence that would have made my point clearer, but actually deemed it possibly offensive to my more sensitive American friends (I am not one –yet) around here. Hint: Couch potatoes.

  81. Internet voting would be bad because it would encourage participation. With the resultant fraud, coercion, vote buying etc.

  82. SIV has a point. One of the worst periods in American history (politically speaking) was the late 1800s. Bad candidates, bad corruption, but record voter turn out and party loyalty!

  83. Ali,

    Isn’t that sort of like holding back on a Jewish joke and then saying “Hint: money-grubbing bankers”?

  84. Cesar,

    Exit polls have him at a more sedate 54%. If Clinton wanted to frighten whites into voting for her by making blacks vote as a block for Obama, I think she succeeded. Something like 80% of blacks voted for Obama in SC.

  85. crimethink- Sounds like it. For me, it is about respect and not offending others, seriously, as opposed to fear of (in this case, verbal) repercussions.

  86. At both of the universities I attended, voter participation plummeted when voting went to the internet. I’m not sure what the cause is, but perhaps something similar would happen if real elections went that way.

  87. And the prophet spoke and said

    “Add not ass!”

    Tee Hee

    In the immortal words of JFK, “Ass not what you can do for your country — ass how your country is going to whoop upon your ass.”

    I may not have gotten the exact words JFK said, but that was the gist, right?

    From that Freudian slip, sounds like Ali could use one of those 72 virgins now. (I keed, I keed).

  88. The Obama win should fire up certain Ron Paul supporters to try even harder. They’re probably getting out their copies the Turner Diaries as we speak.

  89. Exit polls have him at a more sedate 54%. If Clinton wanted to frighten whites into voting for her by making blacks vote as a block for Obama, I think she succeeded. Something like 80% of blacks voted for Obama in SC.

    Yeah I’ve been thinking the same thing. This actually hurts him–hes the “Black candidate” now. Shes going to play this for all its worth with whites and hispanics come Super Tuesday. Shes still the nominee.

  90. There is a balm in Giliad, and his name is Obama.
    He is just the Ben-Gay the hoi polloi need to apply to aching muscles.

    South Carolina is such a perverted state, I’m looking forward to moving past the detailed analysis of its perversion, which relief Super Tuesday will provide.

    Did anyone notice how the establishment newspaper of the US (NYT) endorsed establishment Clinton and McCain? Will wonders never cease?

    Ruthless

  91. From that Freudian slip, sounds like Ali could use one of those 72 virgins now. (I keed, I keed).

    NO! I am not in that business at all. 🙂

    One virgin here on earth, yes, 72 later, NO!

  92. prolefeed- LOL. One Freudian slip for Ali, one giant laugh for (H&R) mankind.

  93. Is there an exit poll for tomorrow’s super bowl? That could save me a couple of hours of my time tomorrow.

  94. If prolefeed or J sub were around, they’d have a field ass day with my typo.

    AR, why do you think Romney will win just not the nomination but the White House?

    Because Mitt’s gonna swoop up the social conservative vote due to being the only front-running candidate with no history of chasing ass?

  95. Ali,

    If you’re not married by now, finding that one virgin will be an epic task.

  96. “Is there an exit poll for tomorrow’s super bowl?”

    You’re off by a week. Curse these two week break between conference championship games and the big one!

  97. Clinton vs. Romney, that’s the second worst scenario I could imagine and one that would almost cause me to abstain from politics this go around.

    Kang and Kodos have got us by the balls.

  98. Is there an exit poll for tomorrow’s super bowl?

    Well, first, the Super Bowl isn’t tomorrow, but yes, there is an “exit poll” as it were. It’s called the scoreboard and updated results will be available all throughout the game so that by the time it is finished we’ll know who won within seconds. There is only slightly more uncertainty of to the football game’s results than of today’s primary.

  99. Wow – could it really be a 15+ point win for Obama? That would be awesome, even with Clinton a solid second (Edwards beating her was just too much to hope for…).

  100. LIT, sheesh, do I regret posting on this thread. Field day it is indeed.

    But, yes, I know. One needs to look in the right place.

    Can we please move on? Damn stupid keyboard.

  101. Cesar | January 26, 2008, 7:05pm | #

    I think that was the last post Chalupa will ever make here.

    I project Hit & Run to be the winner.

  102. Ali,

    Sorry, I can’t help myself sometimes.

  103. Brian, right, it is next week. I confused the dates. I am not a big football fan anyways. I only know that there is a super bowl sometime now because of the Patriots. Got to know the score otherwise people at work will grill me for not knowing the scores and other Patriots news. Glad I made the date mistake here and not at the office.

  104. Off topic – but I didn’t start it.

    What is this almost universal fetish for virgins? Experienced expert technique wins over rookie enthusiasm every time.

    Bit I’m a hedonist, take it for what it’s worth.

  105. LIT- No problem 🙂

  106. Off topic – but I didn’t start it.

    My keyboard did. Freudian slip my ___!

  107. Cesar,

    Obama tied Hillary among white voters.

    In a deep-south state.

    I don’t think Hillary’s race-baiting is hurting him among white voters.

  108. Got to know the score otherwise people at work will grill me for not knowing the scores and other Patriots news.

    Yeah, I understand – Patriots fans can be an obnoxious bunch. 🙂

    Glad I made the date mistake here and not at the office.

    Yep, you would never have heard the end of that. They’d probably make you dress like Belichick for a week as penance.

  109. J sub D,

    I have no argument with that. I’d rather play ball with someone who knows the rules of the game than be the teacher that explains what the mitt is for.

  110. 36-24% is a “tie”, joe?

  111. joe, not according to the CBS exit polls, which showed Clinton and Edwards tied for the white vote and Obama well behind.

  112. What is this almost universal fetish for virgins?

    the early farmer plants a fresh field?

    some people really like lousy sex?

    i dunno.

  113. OK, one last gratuitous swipe at Ali’s ass slip-up, and I’ll call it a day (WARNING — the following is so very much not for the prudish — if you’re like that, NM can give you bland stuff you can handle) 😉

    What kind of girls Muslims get if they don’t behave well enough to deserve the virgins:

    here

  114. So far, Gravel is up to 8 votes.

  115. Well, among white males its tied.

  116. Ali,

    If you’re not married by now, finding that one virgin will be an epic task.

    He could always find an LDS girl and convert her. About the last bastion of virgin-rich demographics left, if you can handle the insufferable preachiness.

  117. Cesar,

    yeah, he’s not to far behind with white males, who apparently love Edwards. Crazy country folk.

  118. eeeeeewwwwwwww prolefeed…. I swear I have and will behave well in the future.

  119. Ali — if I’ve gone too far and given offense, apologies offered.

  120. Seriously, people, given the statistics, was it such a bad idea to let the south just go? I say this half jokingly.

  121. prolefeed,

    I met alot of LDS girls when I was working in Wyoming and I can’t imagine why you think they’re pure. They breed like rabbits as soon as they see red and they’re preachy as hell. I can’t see why anyone could stand them.

  122. prolefeed- not at all. 🙂

  123. Cesar
    From another thread: I don’t think Richmond is even half bad…Shockoe Bottom is cool…The James and the parks beside it rock…Maymont is cool…The Byrd Theater is a cultural treasure…The Fan has some decent places to eat…The history is decent and the VMFA is good for a city of that size…Gotta say I miss that warm Southern weather as well…Makes me want to visit my parents!

    I came down to Richmond not too long ago and saw some Ron Paul signs dotting the roadways…How do you think he will do in my old home state?

  124. Isn’t SC a red state. Who cares which Dem scores there? Kinda like HRC in the Silver State.

  125. Ali,

    Careful, some southerners would see that comment as justification

    “See, they don’t even want us, let’s rise again!!!”

  126. MNG-

    My commentary about Richmond was regarding the corrupt city government, not any quality of life issues.

    Ron Paul seems to get a lot of donations form Virginia, which is weird, give the depednancy we have on the federal government.

  127. Why are LDS girls seem to always be beautiful? Or, are the ones on HBO only so?

  128. “who apparently love Edwards. Crazy country folk.”

    Well, Edwards has practically sucked the dick of the SC voters (called “pulling a Romney”), so I’m not surprised…

  129. Cesar,

    Washington DC…Reason…ringing any bells?

  130. prolefeed,

    What, are you Capt. Stabbin or something?

    http://www.captainstabbin.com/4/main.htm

  131. LIT-

    Good point. VA is the headquarters of a lot of ideological organizations of all stripes. I wonder what would happen if you take out NOVA though with regards to RP fundraising.

  132. LIT,

    Careful, some southerners would see that comment as justification

    For what?

    I am just sick of this racially charged mentality. Conscious or not.

  133. I can’t live south of the Mason-Dixon line. I can deal with cold and snow, but massive cockroach populations and scorpions are too much.

  134. Well, yeah Cesar but those dependencies are DOD and therefore good ol’ Republican dependencies, which are great in GOP brains and VERY different from government expenditures to, say, those undeserving poor bastards!

    At the state level ya’ll have some good politicos. John Warner is a statesman, and I think Webb could be one-in-training. I’d be hard pressed to think of a better senatorial delegation…

  135. Ali,

    Salt Lake City is packed with tall beautiful blondes. They are that way because they pretty much eat healthy because of religion and live in a dry, hilly climate known for outdoor activities. Then they breed their replicas. Don’t let the pretty face fool you though, there are some real crazies there.

  136. Hey crimethink, I lived in VA for a decade and I don’t remember any scorpions…Was that Petersburg?

  137. MNG thats true, John Warner and Jim Webb are two politicians I can vote for without feeling dirty.

  138. crimethink,

    I haven’t ever had to deal with a scorpion and the cockroaches are no worse than the mice that come to live in your house during the winter up north.

  139. Ali,
    You are correct the South should have been just let “go.”
    As a Southerner, I’m well aware it’s pretty far gone, but we like it that way.

    I don’t usually pay such close attention to you, but, this being SC night, I was wondering if you care to share you ethnicity? I even clicked on your blogspot, but could not find.

  140. NM-Captian stabbin rules! Ahoy, mateys!
    But the best porn site ever: Strap-on Stars.
    http://www.straponstars.com/

    God Bless the USA!

  141. MNG,

    WTF

  142. Cesar-what is your take on Kaine and M. Warner? I’m not sure they are great, but considering who they ran against they are true statesmen! Kilgore was one of hte dumber GOP statewide candidates I’ve seen in a while (and that includes Mike Farris and Ollie North)

  143. LIT, crazies or not (I may regret it later, I know), I will try to find the first opportunity to head to SLC.

    Iowa girls are very pretty. Same reason? I was driving from Ann Arbor MI to Denver a few years ago and ended up in a Des Moines bar where a bachelorette party was underway. You guess the rest…

  144. I met alot of LDS girls when I was working in Wyoming and I can’t imagine why you think they’re pure. They breed like rabbits as soon as they see red and they’re preachy as hell. I can’t see why anyone could stand them.

    Did they start breeding prior to getting married? The ones I’ve known where the topic came up in conversation were pretty emphatic about no sex prior to marriage — but, yeah, people lie about sex — a lot.

    Some LDS girls are pleasant to be around and don’t push the religion thing, and some are obnoxiously preachy.

    And Ali — there are some really ugly LDS girls, as well as breathtakingly beautiful, and everything in between. Go to LDSPlanet if you want to get a (non-random) sampling.

  145. LIT-NM mentioned the pron site Captain Stabbin, so I mentioned that while it is a great site, it pales in comparison to the pornographic romps of SOS…

    Cesar-I should mention that Mark Earley was, imo, a bright, compassionate and fairly principled guy from my limited exposure to him (his work with prison ministries is commendable)

  146. prolfeed-What do LDSers think of Harry Reid? Just wondering…

  147. prolefeed,

    Yeah, the LDS girls I know all got pregnant before getting married. Of course, I lived in Wyoming, where those banished from Utah go, so maybe the sample was skewed.

  148. I meant the scorpions in the southwest and the cockroaches in the southeast. Wait a minute…you don’t have mice in houses in the South? They’re actually a problem in my house all year long. That might be because my ‘tard of a landlady leaves dog food out all day, though.

  149. prolefeed,

    What, are you Capt. Stabbin or something?

    NM — nah, I was just riffing on the unofficial topic of this thoroughly (but inadvertently) threadjacked thread.

    Though I am an admirer of fine, largish okoles.

  150. Quote from a colleague when I lived in Idaho: “It was the Mormon girls who always got knocked up.” Prolly cuz they felt a condom was far more sinful. As for my experience, truly hot Mormon chicks lasted (if there was a mission involved) to about 22 yrs-old maybe. After that you’re talking about the kinda virgins a poor suicide-bombers gonna get

  151. Lost_In_Translation,

    “skewed”
    typo?

  152. Kilgore was one of hte dumber GOP statewide candidates I’ve seen in a while (and that includes Mike Farris and Ollie North)

    I just found out today that Oliver North went to the same college I’m at. If that’s not insulting, I don’t know what is.

  153. David- Would “arab” do? The Mediterranean type. A combination of North African, Greek, Lebanese/Palestinian/Syrian complexion. Though, in my particular case, more north african than otherwise. Note: Egyptians are technically not semitic in general, nor Arab in specific.

  154. prolfeed-What do LDSers think of Harry Reid? Just wondering…

    The 80% or so of them who are conservative Republicans generally despise Reid, though apparently he’s spent enough time courting the ones in Nevada that he’s got enough of the soc-cons on his side that, combined with the Las Vegas vote, he can get reelected by comfortable margins. The Democratic LDS folks generally like Reid.

  155. According to CNN exit polls Obama won 75%+ of the black vote in every age category…All that talk of black voters being “torn” and “up for grabs” by the media was, of course, bullshit of the highest order, as I called weeks ago…

    Sorry to say this, but at the present time I think a majority of black voters vote on symbolic issues rather than substantive ones (and I think Obama better on the substantive issues)!

  156. prolefeed,

    Wait a minute, you got your name in the same place I got mine!

  157. prolfeed-I don’t want to sound dumb, but what is the reason behind the 80-20 split of LDSers for the GOP? Just curious…

  158. I must have seen a “white males” poll and missed the header.

  159. I guess I was also wondering if LDSers were “proud” of Reid being Majority Leader…Like him or not, it’s a fairly powerful position, and he’s perhaps the most powerful and prominent LDS member in the nation…

  160. Regarding Mark Warner, call me crazy but I don’t like people who promise they won’t raise taxes during an election and then proceed to do so almost as soon as they take office. However, any Dem that can simultaneously piss off gun control groups and unions at the same time cant be TOO bad.

    Kaine is a harmless, mediocre Richmond politician but Kilgore made him look like James Madison.

  161. Ali,
    You are a regular Obama in our midst!
    Glory be to whomever!

  162. Whoa, over 50% counted with Obama doubling Hillary’s vote count?

    This is looking to be a blowout.

  163. “Kaine is a harmless, mediocre Richmond politician but Kilgore made him look like James Madison.”

    Jesus, that is well put.

  164. As for my experience, truly hot Mormon chicks lasted (if there was a mission involved) to about 22 yrs-old maybe. After that you’re talking about the kinda virgins a poor suicide-bombers gonna get

    Mmm, usually, but not always. There’s a stunning LDS woman who until recently was in my ward who’s pushing 30 and unmarried. But, yeah, there’s a huge amount of pressure applied to marry young and start popping out the anklebiters. The good-looking unmarried ones are often holding out for returned missionaries, since the competition is fierce for those (oftentimes hugely religiously nutjob) guys. Go figure.

  165. LIT- Going back to be original comment about the south, I think I was just pissed off at how people voted down there. Now that I am less angry, coming to think of it, NE isn’t much better either. They just don’t talk about it. But, yes, I’ve got to be careful.

  166. I guess I was also wondering if LDSers were “proud” of Reid being Majority Leader…Like him or not, it’s a fairly powerful position, and he’s perhaps the most powerful and prominent LDS member in the nation…

    MNG — being “proud” is considered a huge vice in LDS circles. And being gay-type proud is cause for ostracism.

  167. prolfeed-I don’t want to sound dumb, but what is the reason behind the 80-20 split of LDSers for the GOP? Just curious…

    It’s a recent phenomenon — LDS used to be heavily Democratic up until the 50s or so. If you’ve been exposed to the theology, there’s a huge emphasis on fiscal conservatism, but the biggest draw is the social conservatism. Campaigned in the 90% LDS stronghold of Laie, and about all anyone asked about was my views on gay marriage and abortion.

  168. I am not a big football fan anyways.

    Ali, are you watching the African cub? Good win for Egypt today.

  169. Ali,
    Perhaps this will be helpful:
    The South is where the ignorant are proud of their ignorance.
    The rest of this country has been saturated with enough Political Correctness crap that the ignorant might be a teensy ashamed.

    Just so you know, peaceful anarchists feel no need to vote.
    Peace out!

    Ruthless

  170. That’s the diamond in the ruff and she’s holding out for a non-nutjob. I wish her all the best. This RM went gentile.

  171. Ali,
    You are a regular Obama in our midst!
    Glory be to whomever!

    What do you mean? I really don’t get it?

    Obama is my second preference for a president (as I said before, he does have a terroristic middle name after all 🙂 ). The first being Ron Paul. And no, not because of his stance regarding the Middle East.

    Which brings me back to Ayn_Randian, Mitt will probably not deliver on any of the things he’s promising. It is funny that his current popularity is inversely proportion to the distance from Boston. Those who have known him seem to agree that he’s a big liar and a big hack.

    So between Mitt and Obama, I’d say that despite Obama’s socialism and populism, he does have some integrity and carries with him some respect. He could also be good as far as America’s image in the world is concerned.

    Having Clinton in office is probably worse than any of the other candidates (including McCain and Mitt) as far as the middle east is concerned.

  172. anon-

    Ali, are you watching the African cub? Good win for Egypt today.

    No, but I heard about the final score. They seem to be doing well. But funny thing is that I am loosing interest in soccer. I am becoming more of a baseball fan now. And may be the NBA finals.

  173. sorry, answer to prolefeed ’bout LDS hottie.

  174. Got to fix my math skills:

    It is funny that his current popularity is inversely proportional to the distance from Boston.

  175. prolefeed, interesting about the LDS mix. What’s happened to the ETB branch of ‘political’ Mormon? True it was also extremely socially conservative but wasn’t ETB a co-founder of JBS? Just a guess.

  176. So there have been four contested Democratic contests. Hillary Clinton came in second in the first of them, got trounced in the latest, and is well behind in elected delegates. In Nevada, the state party opened up caucus sites over her objections, and she lost her case in court. In South Carolina, she sent Bill Clinton, the most popular president among African-Americans, to campaign for her, and she got trounced. She is trying to get the national party to count Michigan and Florida for delegate selections, and they won’t. Her national poll numbers have been dropping recently, and are going to drop more after this trouncing, on the way to Super Tuesday. She and Bill are getting blasted across the country by the So Called Liberal Media. This all happening three years after the Clintons were unable to install their prepared candidate as Chairman of the DNC.

    So, are we ready to do away with the old “The Clintons Own the Democratic Party” conspiracy theory line, and admit that, yes Virginia, this actually is a competitive race?

    Or are people still going to cling to that, even if Hillary loses, or barely scrapes by with enough delegates to win?

  177. Lastly, regarding my comment at 8:45, you go to elections with the presidential candidates you have. They’re not the presidential candidates you might want or wish to have at a later time. 😉

  178. Are you kidding me??? In a solidly Republican State, Democrats are going to have about 120,000 more people turn out for their primary…amazing.

  179. Mr. Nice Guy,

    Mr. Nice Guy | January 26, 2008, 8:13pm | #
    NM-Captian stabbin rules! Ahoy, mateys!
    But the best porn site ever: Strap-on Stars…

    Maybe a bit too much information in that one…is MNG hoping his 72 virgins are into pegging?

  180. James, looking at the numbers, I think the difference is less that 120k. May be less than 50k.

  181. Joe-

    I think we saw what happens when Bill opens his mouth one too many times tonight.

  182. MNG,

    Sorry, I shouldn’t assume…

    Your preferences aren’t pegged to your comment.

    ;^)

  183. Obama is a good orator. You’ve got to give him that.

  184. NM-What can I say, I love the strap-on action…

    If I were Obama I would be worried about the amazingly disproprtionate black vote for him…

    But, he sounds great right now. He’s bringing new people into the process…He won’t appoint Alito-clones…

  185. Ali,

    In the context of the sub-dialog going on here, that sounds dirty, dirty, dirty…

  186. Ali,

    I was wrong…but it looks like about 65,000 more Dem. voters…this is still incredible, South Carolina is a hugely Republican state..

  187. “you go to elections with the presidential candidates you have. ”

    A hearty ha ha

    Don’t vote!

    Peaceful anarchy is the only way out…

  188. James, the only thing that would reverse that trend is that HRC wins the dem nomination. 65,000 is more like it since they are still doing some counting.

  189. NM- Sheesh… 🙂

  190. Caroline Kennedy has provided the kiss of death to Billary.

    Oprah had already kicked her in her nuts.

    Praise be to Allah!!

    Peaceful anarchy ueber alles!

  191. joe, i’m impressed by your prediction at the beginning of this thread (obama wins by double digits)

  192. Democrats 507,320 (96% reporting)
    Republicans 442,918

    In South Carolina.

    November is going to be like 1932, but with better coffee.

  193. Ali,

    Sorry…just being a smart ass.

    😉

    On topic…

    This was Obama kicks Ass Day.

    Not to add an ass or anything.

  194. I lowballed, sv. Holy freaking crap, he’s going to win by 30%!

    In a three-way race (which goes well with that strap-on action), where the third-place finisher is a hometown boy, he’s going to get 55% of the vote!

    It ain’t over. It ain’t close to over. Hillary Clinton is a good candidate, and she has shown that she can turn on a dime, retool, and keep on coming. But she’s not the frontrunner after tonight.

    And think of this: the last time this happened – Iowa – when Obama won, and won big (well, we thought of it as big at that time), and vastly surpassed expectations, Hillary’s firewall of New Hampshire was next. And she won it, and all the stories were about her winning.

    “Next” this time is Super Duper Tuesday. Hillary might win more states than Obama on February 5, but not a lot. She might win more votes, but not a lot. Even if she “wins” on Super Duper Tuesday, the news reports are going to be about a mixed victory, with Hillary winning some states, and Barack winning some states. Hillary was able to stop his momentum cold in the next contest after Iowa, and that cannot happen this time.

  195. This racees would have looked a little different if Colbert would been allowed to be on the ballots

  196. prolefeed, interesting about the LDS mix. What’s happened to the ETB branch of ‘political’ Mormon? True it was also extremely socially conservative but wasn’t ETB a co-founder of JBS? Just a guess.

    modd, no idea what the acronyms ETB or JBS stand for.

  197. Joe,

    I don’t know…could Edwards drop out and endorse Obama now?!! I don’t actually hate Hillary but I don’t like her and I don’t want that whole gang back in the White House again and if Democrats are smart they will back Obama because only Obama could cause a major political re-alignment…Damn elderly women voting for Hillary!!

  198. “This racees would have looked a little different if Colbert would been allowed to be on the ballots”

    No, now if Tyler Perry were on the ballot…

  199. Billery should spread her legs, grab her ankles and graciously receive the strap-on from Caroline Kennedy.

    Praise be to Allah!

  200. HRC is WAY ahead of Obama in FL, which has WAY more delegates…this may be much ado about nothing…

    Obama was terrific in his speech 2night…

  201. FL was stripped of its delegates because it moved its primary up early. Florida means nothing.

  202. MNG- I agree. He is a very good speaker.

  203. Obama’s popularity, IMO, is due to the fact that most people don’t know what he stands for, if anything. Whereas anyone paying attention knows that HRC is bad news, and Edwards is a total d-bag.

    But for all his charm and nice guy image, Obama might be just as bad as the two above, other than the virtue of not making some of us have to try to control the urge to spit at the TV whenever they’re on.

    Maybe that’s about the best case scenario we can expect from the next president — bad things happening, but at least they’re pleasant when giving us the pointy end of the stick.

  204. Cesar-i forgot about that, good point…

  205. I don’t know…could Edwards drop out and endorse Obama now?!!

    I think Edwards’ plan is to hang in there no matter what, unless the frontrunner promises him the VP slot in exchange for his endorsement. Cause Edwards can’t possibly be thinking he’ll be president by now.

  206. Well, prolfeed-i’ll say this, if Obama wins he will think a lot about being the first black pres, and like doug wilder in va, he will be very professional and non-controversial, and his blackness will actually allow him to be less pandering to the ‘civil rights establishment’ than a white democrat…

    dunno if that helps!

  207. Here she is. Quick bet, will she cry?

  208. Maybe she’ll speak “hip hop” again.

  209. Why do I get a stomach ache whenever a politician tells me that s/he is worried about the people?

  210. “I think Edwards’ plan is to hang in there no matter what, unless the frontrunner promises him the VP slot in exchange for his endorsement”

    –Do you think this is a pledge the Obama campaign would make…I would assume the Dem. VP has to be a while male whether its Obama or Clinton..

  211. James,

    If I was Edwards, I’d drop out and endorse Obama now, or at least soon, before Feb 5. After that, his endorsement doesn’t matter much.

    But I think he really thinks that his presence in the race is going to make the other candidates talk about poor people more, sort of like Ron Paul staying in the Republican primary to get his small government, noninterventionist ideas into the campaign. I can respect that.

    If I was Hillary, I’d say it’s time for Bill to go save some orphans and negotiate a peace deal on the other side of the planet.

  212. prolefeed,

    just shows how far removed I am from my past. ETB was Ezra Taft Benson. I was alluding to the possibility of him being a John Birch Society founder and a certain number of LDS voting JBS ‘constitutionalist’ vs. Mittster or libdem ( a la volenteerism at the church cannery)

  213. Billery should spread her legs, grab her ankles and graciously receive the strap-on from Caroline Kennedy.

    Inshallah, Ruthless. Inshallah.

  214. I know its not just me but I’m really sick of Bill…I liked him fine as a president(seems like God compared to Bush) but is he ever going to shut the fuck up?!

  215. If Edwards chooses to remain in politics, the best he could do is apply for the job of Chief of Staff of Dennis Kucinich up in Cleveland.

  216. Bill is coming off bad in the campaign, but so is HRC…The attack sh*t is not as effective for the democrats…

    I thought Bill Richardson was the best choice for HRC for vp, but it makes no sense for Obama (too ethnic and pc)…

    I respect Edwards, but he comes across as such a pussy (think about the Coulter thing) that he should not be the vp candidate…Who?

  217. UPDATE 6:25: I’m not liveblogging, but before I head out I see that more than half of voters were black and 57 percent of all voters said Bill Clinton’s campaigning influenced their vote. Obama’s going to win, and it’ll be interesting to see what the Bill effect was.

    Bill will not have a pleasant night tonight.

  218. The dynamics are so different for vp with obama…i always thought of him as unelectable, so i never thought about it…who?

  219. I really think Hillary Clinton was just completely screwed when Obama entered the race. As soon as the Clintons had it figured out that they couldn’t beat him friendly-like, they tried going nasty. After tonight, that may not work either. In any event, even if it does, I just don’t see how they can keep up the racially charged politics the way they are without depressing a usually reliable voting bloc. If that happens, she probably will have won the primary only to have cost herself the general. I just don’t think she’d have been able to beat McCain normally, much less after her campaign has taken the strategy they have.

    Of course, she could still win the primary; that’s certainly still within reason. And then, I guess, if she’s very lucky, she might be facing Romney. I guess that’s what the “My wife loves John McCain – she sleeps with him all the time” comment was about. I suppose that may be her only way to win both the primary and the general. It’s a really small window, but they’re sure trying their damnedest to get that shuttle to land (as it were).

  220. If I was Obama I would chose somebody who also was younger so as to play up the disparity in age and energy between his campaign and the likely challenger McCain…

  221. James,

    Actually, I think Clinton may have a tough time going white male VP without reminding people of the racially charged campaign against Obama that she and her husband have been running. Yet another “damned if you do…” type dealie.

  222. I know it seems impossible, but an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket would actually be very difficult to defeat, wouldn’t be my choice but there would be an unexhaustable amount of money and probably a large turnout.

  223. James-Anyone HRC would add Obama would already have…And she would never agree to that…

  224. My choice:

    Obama/Feingold

  225. The comments have kind of dropped off…i know what is going on…strap on stars is getting higher volume, h&r is dropping off…be honest guys, it’s great 😉

  226. Obama/Feingold would make the McCain ticket look like a couple of old cripples which is exactly the picture that Dems should try to paint.

  227. I know I’m not going out on any limbs here, but I think that only McCain can beat Obama and only Obama can beat McCain. (I know Edwards has relatively good poll numbers against McCain as well – for some reason I just don’t think they’re really solid.)

    And I do think that Obama will run with a white male VP. (I don’t have any idea who; I don’t even really know who the options are – someone like Mark Warner, maybe.) He still has the option of making his ticket look like change yet not too much change. I’m not sure that Clinton will have that option if she gets the nomination.

  228. Whoa whoa whoa. Who should Obama pick as VP? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, people. Hillary could very well win this race!

    But…ok. If the rest of the race is nasty, than like Chris Matthews says, the winner might have to pick the other as his (heh) running mate, just to heal the breach. I mean, the spice must flow, right?

    Obama needs to pick a national security heavyweight. Jim Webb? Wesley Clark? How about this: Richard Cohen, who was a Republican Senator from Maine before becoming Clinton’s SecDef? It goes well with Obama’s “bringing people together” shtick.

  229. Another great ticket would be Obama/Webb…a plainspoken VP who is a military vetran.

  230. Obama won’t pick Clark, he is working with the Clinton campign… but Hillary might, I would personally love the progressive touch of a Feingold.

  231. Per Bob Novak, Edwards would likely be AG if Obama was president. Which is less than good from a libertarian perspective; then again, it would still be an improvement over the Bush AGs.

    As for an Obama VP- it’s way too early to say, and I think Hillary is still by far the favorite. She controls too much of the party machinery not to be. Still, if Obama manages to pull off the miracle, Richardson would probably be a safe choice. Maybe not the best choice, but definitely the safe choice.

  232. MNG,

    Hillary has worked closely with people like Lindsay Graham, who was a House Impeachment Manager, since coming to the Senate.

    She’d probably take the VP slot if it was offered. Petty grudges are not her style.

    SWDWTLHJ, (I am SO not writing that out).

    Hillary always had a very tight line to balance on, and Obama in the race made it even tighter. It’s like “Damned if You Do” in five dimensions.

    She’s a real pro, and might pull it off (not the strap-on, the nomination), but she has a tough row to hoe.

  233. I understand the argument for Richardson…for either candidate, but he is dull dull dull…went to a rally of his in Iowa and was thoroughly unimpressed.

  234. Oh yeah, Obama / Webb would be a good ticket. Also, my earlier guess Obama / Mark Warner would be a good one I think, or probably any number of other versions of Warner out there in other states.

    The HRC running mate choice I think could be an African American male to try and mend fences. She might offer it to Obama, but he’d probably refuse. I have no idea who else she might try as a second choice. Any ideas? Or am I completely wrong on this guess?

  235. If Obama were smart he’d choose the current governor of Oklahoma, Brad Henry.

    Moderate Southern white guy who is still liberal enough for the base. Won his first election narrowly, but proceeded to become very popular and win by a huge margin in his re-election despite coming from the home state of Tom Coburn.

  236. Joe,

    You are right, Hillary is very pragmatic and professional so I could see her accepting a VP nod(because its a path to the White House in 8yrs)

  237. Obama/Kerry?

    Gore almost picked Kerry. Correction: Gore should have picked Kerry; he’d be president right now. Think of Kerry beating Cheney in the debate instead of Lieberman kissing his ass.

    Kerry’s been doing attack-dog duty for two years, launching counter-strikes when the Republicans attack people’s patriotism. Sound like a certain campaign-related role?Dude’s bitter, and he’s got the right to be.

    Not to mention, how appealing does the phrase “Do over” seem to the American public right now?

  238. Hillary will choose Wes Clark, or maybe Joe Biden.

  239. I think Clinton would choose Warner or Wesley Clark.

  240. joe: Yeah, I think she’s got a decent shot to get the nomination, probably 50-50%. I think it’s really hard to imagine a very likely version of the future where she gets the Presidency though.

    (No problem on the name. I don’t even like writing it out…one day I’ll get tenure, my friends!)

    Cesar: Exactly the kind of thing I was thinking. He’s Oklahoma’s Mark Warner! :o)

  241. Warner is running for Senate the next Senator from Virginia, so hes out of the Veepstakes.

  242. Honestly, the best ticket the Dems could hope for and it will never happen is Obama/Gore.

  243. Yup, Cesar’s right. Hillary would pick Joe Biden.

  244. The fear with Gore, James, is “overshadowing,” and there is such a gap in charisma that it wouldn’t be a problem.

    Still, Gore would almost certainly not do it.

  245. I think Hillary’s best possible pick would be James Webb of Virginia, but she might go for the unsexy pick of Biden…

  246. joe: I think people in general would be more eager for a Gore do-over than a Kerry do-over. And I don’t see Gore accepting another VP job, if that’s even legal. Kerry as VP choice is an option for Obama, I just think it’s far from his best one.

  247. joe-HRC will not take vp…never…

    Mark Warner will run for VA senate, and I don’t see him taking anything else…

    I like Obama, more every day, but even I don’t think he can get Webb to run as Vp…

    joe’s suggestion of Cohen would be pure genuis…I hope someone from Obama’s campaign is listening…

  248. James: great minds or the semblance thereof.

  249. I think the Dems have an embarrasment of riches at the VP slot, especially compared to the Republicans.

  250. oops: joe, not James, though, James, don’t take that as an insult, you have a great mind too!

  251. or both! I should read the posts better.

  252. You know what? I’m going to repost something:

    joe | January 26, 2008, 9:26pm | #

    Democrats 507,320 (96% reporting)
    Republicans 442,918

    In South Carolina.

    November is going to be like 1932, but with better coffee.

    President-apparent Obama is going to pick whoever he thinks would do the best job as president in case something terrible happens, and not worry about the electoral implications.

  253. No, James. The Republicans have good VP candidates stacked to the ceiling.

    It’s that OTHER spot they’re a bit weak on…

  254. Kerry wouldn’t be such a bad choice…notice he was out front endorsing Obama and attacking Clinton, he (like Gore) has been a much better person after his Presidential campaign was over…Please Democrats nominate Obama!

  255. Nah, Obama should pick a southern centrist white guy. Also someone young and outside-the-beltway.

    Jim Webb sounds good on paper and is a solid Senator but hes an awful campaigner. He won because George Allen imploded.

  256. Actually joe, looking at your numbers there, you may well be right. It may be that even McCain would lose badly to Obama. If that’s really the case, I think HRC may be the only way the Republicans win 2008.

  257. Even if the most electable Repub. McCain is the nominee, I can’t see their ticket being very exciting to the public.

  258. McCain/Lindsey Grahm is the Republican ticket if I had to lay money on it.

  259. joe-hahahaha! Keep thinking that! This is a conservative nation (i hate it) and given enough time and ads, any election between a democrat and gop will be close…It’s never a given for dems…

  260. I think the Dems should just assume they can’t win Dixie and go for the strongest possible VP…Also, Clinton might choose Kerrey of Nebraska (he passed up a chance to walk into a Senate seat)

  261. WTF is up with Juno as best Picture? It’s an OK film, @but No Country For Old Men is certainly better…

  262. McCain/Graham will never happen…it would throw the party base into hysterics…McCain will chose a very conservative VP.

  263. Everyone always has a stack of good VP candidates. There’s plenty of people with the right backgrounds who just have no way to run a national campaign just begging for it as it gives them an almost automatic route to the Presidential elections a few years later.

    I just don’t know who most of them are. (Most of them are governors and I can only live in one state.)

  264. Cesar: possible, but I bet McCain will choose someone a little more social conservative as his running mate. Not Huckabee (even though he’s been gunning for it), but somebody sort of like Huckabee only less so.

  265. There are a few very popular Democratic govs in red states(Nepolitano in Ariz. Seballius in Ks, Richardson NM) I think you have to chose someone with a big national name this time around though…

  266. McCain/Santorum….UGH#%@#%!

  267. Obama or Clinton?
    McCain or Romney?

    Call it, Friendo…

  268. Dems: Clinton

    Repubs: McCain

  269. Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and chose Clinton

    Republicans narrowly pick McCain

    Clinton wins narrowly in the general

    4 more years of bs

  270. Obama v. Romney

  271. Jim Webb sounds good on paper and is a solid Senator but hes an awful campaigner.

    There’s also a non-trivial chance that he’s fucking nuts.

    It’s not a conservative nation, MNG, and it hasn’t been for over a decade. Judis and Tiexiera were right, and Iraq just made the 9/11 hiccup go away faster.

  272. If it was Obama Romney…Obama has has a chance at 60%

  273. Dems: too close to call.

    GOP: McCain

  274. We are entering another progressive era…the evangelical movement is losing steam and alot more are become liberal.

  275. I dunno really, but:

    Clinton vs McCain: McCain
    Clinton vs Romney: Clinton
    Obama vs McCain: Obama
    Obama vs Romney: Obama

    The Obama vs McCain guess is new for me. Right now, I’d guess:

    Dem: Obama
    Rep: McCain

    I’m not very confident on either nomination guess though.

  276. When the Democrat wins in 2008, and the Democrats pick up a bunch of Senate seats, people are going to realize that 2006 wasn’t an aberration, but the reversion to the norm. Those Democratic gubernatorial victories in 2002 actually meant something, and losing to an incumbent wartime president by 2% with a negative-charisma candidate doesn’t actually mean your party is unpopular.

  277. It is possible that a Hillary campaign could lose to McCain – and only McCain – but the realignment is real, and the fillibuster-proof majority is possible in 2010.

  278. Throwing in my guesses here… especially with the (at least to me) shocking Obama win (IIRC, he’s the first candidate to win with over 50% of the vote), I’ll say Obama gets the (D) nod, and Romney gets the (R) nod.

    And being here in Ohio, the papers keep talking about our governor (Strickland) trying to vie for a VP nom.

    Nephilium

  279. James: Actually I’ve noticed a lot of that among churchgoers I know. I don’t know if they’re all “evangelical” but I’ve been seeing a lot more of the Liberal Christians lately.

    joe: That’s one reason I think Kerry is still a suboptimal VP choice for Obama, though, no one’s really that bad for him, other than Dan Quayle.

  280. Look at those turnout numbers. In Thurmondville.

    That doesn’t happen without independents – Southern independents – deciding that they want to vote in the Democratic primary.

  281. Joe,

    Totally agree, I think the Dems pick up about 12-15 more House seats, 4-6 Senate seats and the Dem candidate probably wins the White House, in 2010 Dems pick up another 4 or so Senate seats and there will be no filibusters…

  282. joe: I think Hillary Clinton loses to McCain if they are the nominees. Of all my predictions, that’s the one I’m most convinced I’m correct on.

  283. Oh and obviously, Romney loses horribly to Obama as well…forgot about that.

  284. I am of the opinion that the Democrat will win even if its Hillary, and if its Obama it will be an historic lanslide(especially if its Romney…we are talking Reagan/Johnson number)

  285. Obama should maybe pick a southern vp?

    Who? Not Edwards (that guy can’t carry his own state, however you define it).

    But, to be honest, the Dem can win w/out any Southern choice…A western choice would be better…Would a Obama/Richardson ticket be too ethnic?

  286. OK, it’s been fun, duders; time to finish watching Slap Shot and have another Sierra Nevada Pale Ale.

  287. Not a huge fan of Richardson, but he would be a good choice. Dems should say fuck you to the deep south, they can win Virginia but thats about it, they should go west generally, if there was somebody like Gary Hart(Colorado) that might be a good pick.

  288. james
    the national dems cannot win Va…Webb is pretty far from Obama, and the GOP candidate will assuredly not be as dumb as george allen or jerry kilgore…

  289. F*ck Virginia(sorry, I lived there for a while), the Dems just need to win Cl, NY, and especially Fl and all the states they usually win…

  290. I think the national Dems can win VA this time around…it is becoming more and more Democratic.

  291. Hahahaha, okay someone made a mashup of a Kanye West video featuring George W Bush. Clicky name, I thought it was pretty funny.

  292. I’m willing to bet money that VA will go Democratic this year (Not a lot though).

    I’ve always been of the opinion that Richardson will be Obama’s vp and that it was a good idea. Of course, I said that the democratic candidate was Mark Warner some time ago as well. I’m not doing all that well so far.

  293. Anyone see Hillary’s speach after the results? She ripped off Ron Paul’s description of the deficit in one of the debates. She said, describing the deficit: “We borrow money from the Chinese to buy oil from the Saudi’s”

    oes anyone find it funny that a socialist democrat like Hillary is ripping off a man like Ron Paul (even with his imperfections). I realize, of course, that while they may agree on the symptom, they definately differ on the suggested cure, i.e. more government versus less government.

  294. I think the best case we can hope for is:

    Obama gets nominated. We get four years of a generally well-meaning socialist president, instead of four years of a vicious, power hungry commie bitch.

    Obama will try and fail to manage the economy.

    The republicans, stinging from Mitt Romney’s defeat with >10% of the vote, return to their small-government roots, and a candidate who calls himself a Ron Paul Republican takes the nomination in four years.

    -jcr

  295. Roger- Do you actually read Graham and take his word for it? If yes, good luck my friend.

  296. Ali: I admire him strictly for his Pete Rose haircut.

  297. Roger- If that is the only reason, sure. 😉

  298. Ali: I tend to think of Graham as a vacuous toolbag sometimes, but I will be watching this aspect of the race (oh pun very much intended) very closely. I will utter “aah, genius call” if this notion of down n’ dirty identity political tactic, which sounds compelling to me, comes to fruition in other black heavy states.

  299. Ali: As if identity politics isn’t a factor, a major bullet point on the front page of the CNN website reads: Obama captured 80 percent of the African-American vote, according to exit polls.. And so while all use pure and good Christian Democrats only judge the character of the candidate, this bullet point remains and will make its way to many a Sunday newspaper front page.

  300. Lot of idle speculation upthread, but here’s the deal — no effing way of knowing who’s gonna be president right now. The Republican race seems headed for a convention with nobody at 50%+, and if Edwards picks up enough delegates the Democrats might wind up in the same boat, too.

    Anything can happen — except that Ron Paul and Gravel ain’t gonna be prez.

  301. only one thing is certain:

    “Mitt Romney looks like the American president in a Canadian movie.” – David Letterman

  302. “Cause Edwards can’t possibly be thinking he’ll be president by now.”

    What have like, 5 states voted or caucased or whatever. If he has no states on Feb 6th OK but it is still an open race.

  303. What have like, 5 states voted or caucased or whatever. If he has no states on Feb 6th OK but it is still an open race.

    uhhhhh no.

  304. Dumbest. Post. Evar. (warning: Red State – not responsible for aneurysms resulting from reading the preceding link)

    Yup, the Democrats are definitely the party of racism. That’s why Obama lost by only 3 points in NH. That’s totally why he got more delegates in NV. Because Democrats are basically KKK members at heart.

    Take it away, joe.

  305. My favorite thing about the last few days has been some Democrats suddenly realizing that Bill Clinton is kind of a jerk sometimes. Really, who would have known?

  306. McCain/Lindsey Grahm is the Republican ticket if I had to lay money on it.

    That would be a good ticket for President of the North American Union. United States of America ? ….not so much.

  307. Would a Obama/Richardson ticket be too ethnic?

    A white Harold Ford Junior would be ideal

  308. Even as a protest candidate Gravel is hopeless – he got fewer votes than four guys who aren’t even running any more. Show some self-respect, man, and put yourself out of your misery.

  309. What we’ve learned lately:

    Clinton can and will use Republican rhetorical tactics, and system-gaming tactics (trying to get the Florida/Michigan delegates), to win. She would need these skills in the general in order to squeak out a win against a Republican.

    Obama doesn’t need to because he’ll squash the Republican so badly that 2000/2004-style shenanigans won’t help the GOP.

  310. Roger wrote: “See you in 2012 or 2016, Obama. Bye-bye and take care now. Oops.”

    The linked column refers to a theory of the Toesucker, which is nonsensical on its face.

    Toesucker claims that Obama’s black-fueled win in South Carolina sets up a white vs. black racial dynamic that will push whites to vote for Clinton.

    This utterly ignores Obama’s big win in lilly-white Iowa.

  311. James wrote: “Honestly, the best ticket the Dems could hope for and it will never happen is Obama/Gore.”

    Nah, you can’t have a VP with a Nobel when the Pres doesn’t have one. Never happen.

    But Gore would be good in EPA, or chairing some kind of advisory board on technology and/or the environment.

    Webb would be a good VP. Obama has charisma for both of them, and Webb has the ‘I could kill you with a Post-It’ factor for both of them.

    I like how, lately, Webb’s been the guy to show up in the Senate for 5 minutes just to keep it in session and keep Bush from naming any recess nominations. Granted, he’s local so it’s not that big of a deal, but most of Senators would be all “Fuck that, I’m going to Aruba.”

  312. Who cares which way South Carolina votes in the Dem primary. It is a GOP state in the general election. Clintons don’t care about it and don’t have to. So, what’s the fuss all about?

  313. Gore chairing a “technology board” … ?

    on what qualifications? oh, the Nobel prize for physics, explaining the global warming theory? you gotta be kidding:-)

  314. Anon wrote:”Who cares which way South Carolina votes in the Dem primary. It is a GOP state in the general election. Clintons don’t care about it and don’t have to. So, what’s the fuss all about?”

    Obama got more votes in South Carolina than the top 3 Republicans got in their SC primary, combined.

    It’s not gonna stay a GOP state if the GOP voters stay home.

  315. I’d just like to point out that right now at The Corner there are not one but two posts deeply praising Obama’s victory speech. Strange. Fucking. World.

  316. “and a candidate who calls himself a Ron Paul Republican takes the nomination in four years.”

    I’m praying for Mark Sanford with a tiny bit of apprehension since he’s curiously mum on the war. Hell, maybe Paul can broker him into the running this year, if he doesn’t win he sets himself up for 2012.

  317. Great column, crw.

    What really makes that a terrific argument is that we can know that Democrats are the party of racist white men, because the are dividing their votes between the female frontrunner and the black frontrunner.

    It’s tough to play an effective race card when you don’t actually give a crap about racism. It shows, like Mitt Romney thinking “Who let the dogs out? Who Who?” because he was in a crowd of black people. You end up trying way to hard, and not making any sense.

  318. Question? Let’s say that you have decided to vote in the general election for one of the two major party candidates. Who do you vote for if it is Obama vs. Romney? Obama vs. McCain? Clinton vs.McCain? Clinton vs. Romney?

  319. We’re not realizing that, sine. We’re rememberiing it.

    John, Hillary has shown remarkable skill at ripping off other candidates’ best lines and frames, just like Bush did. Did you know HIllary is the candidate who can deliver change? Did you know that George Bush is a Reformer with Results?

    (The Toesucker Theory utterly ignores Obama’s big win in lilly-white Iowa. And the fact that he tied HIllary among white men in South Carolina.

    Anon,

    South Carolina matters because it delivers delegates to the Democratic convention, and there are two candidates locked in a competitive primary race. BTW, 60,000 more Democrats voted in their primary than Republicans, in that Red state.

  320. I fear that Mark Sanford’s likeness to Ron Paul is exagerated.

    It’s one thing to have a vague preference for smaller government, it’s another to have Ron Paul’s background in Austrian econ, and a very strong belief in non-intervention.

    When faced with very tough decisions, on war or the economy, I fear the Mark Sanford types would crumble and go for the easy, big government solution.

    If only Ron Paul was 10 years younger.

  321. Democratic: about 530,322 (99% reporting)
    Republican: about 446,000

    About 85,000 more.

  322. what about Tom Coburn? He seems to me to be a fairly pro-liberty Republican, definitely not cut from the neo-con, big government cloth.

  323. The gay community has infiltrated the very centers of power in every area across this country, and they wield extreme power… That agenda is the greatest threat to our freedom that we face today. Why do you think we see the rationalization for abortion and multiple sexual partners? That’s a gay agenda.

  324. Point taken about the Toesucker theory. I will want to see the rest of the election unfold to be fully convinced that it’s a crap theory since I have never had a chance to watch a historic Presidential primary like this. If I am to believe CNN’s SC demographics pie chart, I find it very interesting that 55% of primary voters were black, disproportionately political from the 30% physical population demographic.

    Now, if and when Obama does scoop up the Democrat nomination, I will be particularly interested in if the “racist” voting bloc will come out en masse in support of not-Obama similar to what worked in favour of Bush in the last election – namely that the evangelicals were rallied to give him a major boost. At least this was my perception of the 2004 Presidential election at the time, that evangelicals came in inordinate force.

  325. My favorite thing about the last few days has been some Democrats suddenly realizing that Bill Clinton is kind of a jerk sometimes. Really, who would have known?

    Yeah, Colbert E King’s column in the WP yesterday sounds like it was written by Rush Limbaugh 10 years ago.

  326. joe,
    I realize that it is highly probable that we will get a full single party control with a filibuster proof senate. Being that we have slid down this razor blade before, can’t I just dream of gridlock until November?

    That said, there is some modicum of truth to the Toesucker theory. From overhearing one conversation in line at the poll here in NH, there were at least two white ladies, 65ish, who showed up because they’re afraid of having a black man running the show and they were trying very hard to cajole a young woman with an Obama button into voting for HillBillary.

  327. My favorite thing about the last few days has been some Democrats suddenly realizing that Bill Clinton is kind of a jerk sometimes. Really, who would have known?

    I thought a significant number of Dems being pissed at Clinton is what gave Nader 4% of the prez vote in 2000.

  328. Roger that, Roger.

    We are definitely in new territory here.

    Is that 30% you mention for South Carolina, or for South Carolina Democrats? Because, obviously, most black South Carolinians are going to be Democrats.

    About 2004 – remember, as important as the “Values Voter” bloc was, the election also turned on squeaking out a win among independent voters. Independent voters have been flocking to the Democratic Primary, and it’s not because they love the junior Senator from New York.

  329. There are those people, Eddy. I think there are more people who would just love the idea of being able to vote for a black candidate – including some who may have some prejudice, but really, really want to show how non-racist they are.

  330. Show who? Its a secret ballot.

  331. Another thing that probably isn’t such a surprise, but deserves mention: Obama won the white vote under 30. His vote percentages get worse as the white voters age. If the Clinton race strategy works, it’s probably just because it’s 5 or ten years too early for it to fail.

    Also, the Michael Graham article I think assumes too much about the black vote still being there for Clinton in November. I suspect she’d still win the African American vote with fairly high percentage – though maybe not as high as he thinks. I do expect that the tactic Clinton and her husband have taken will severely depress black turnout. That’s part of my reason for suspecting they may have to choose a black running mate.

  332. There’s the on-the-fence-about-Obama apathetic anti-racist voters who truly believe that most of the country is still a bunch of racist bastards not ready for a black president, and will cast for the old stalwart Clinton force. Dunno how large of a voter segment they are.

  333. Show who? Its a secret ballot.

    Themselves.

  334. Eddy wrote “there were at least two white ladies, 65ish, who showed up because they’re afraid of having a black man running the show and they were trying very hard to cajole a young woman with an Obama button into voting for HillBillary.”

    The thing is, those ‘ladies’ were from Hillary’s hardcore base. It’s kind of hard to winnow out whether the ‘black fear’ thing was genuine, or just a racist rhetorical tactic – if Edwards had been the front runner, they might have said something else.

    I’d be more concerned if they were 45.

  335. There are those people, Eddy. I think there are more people who would just love the idea of being able to vote for a black candidate – including some who may have some prejudice, but really, really want to show how non-racist they are.

    A lot of people seem to vote in order to reaffirm their values. I think Joe’s right that there a lot of people who are swayed into voting for Obama precisely because he is black, in the affirmative action, “all things being equal choose the black candidate” sense.

    Whether or not that number is greater or less than the number of people who vote for Hillary out of fear of a black planet I have no idea.

  336. Cesar,

    Show themselves, when they vote. Brag to their neighbors. And, if he wins, show everybody “See, WE aren’t racist.”

    stephen the goldberger puts it perfectly: A lot of people seem to vote in order to reaffirm their values.

  337. A lot of people seem to vote in order to reaffirm their values.

    Unfortunately, this doesn’t include enough Senate Democrats.

  338. JFK reincarnated as BHO. Who woulda’ thunk it?
    If I were a Democrat voter I’d risk his inexperience over Hillary’s (or “Billary”‘s if you’re a tool) ironclad statist aspirations any day. What’s the worst that could happen?
    Discuss.

  339. Ted Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama tomorrow.

  340. Eeeeverything is falling into place.
    Egg-Cellent.

  341. I do expect that the tactic Clinton and her husband have taken will severely depress black turnout. That’s part of my reason for suspecting they may have to choose a black running mate.

    Well, if the intent is to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, running a ticket that ensures that both racists and sexists won’t vote for you seems like one of the more surefire approaches. Obama has only been pulling about one-third of the white vote, and that’s among liberal Democratic primary voters.

  342. Obama-Richardson vs. McCain-Huckabee … this is a very real possibility, and a quandry for libertarians who will vote for one of these two. I think I would hold my nose and vote for Obama-Richardson …

  343. Obama-Richardson vs. McCain-Huckabee … this is a very real possibility, and a quandry for libertarians who will vote for one of these two. I think I would hold my nose and vote for Obama-Richardson …

    That would make my decision too easy. Any ticket with that ignorant, hillbilly, whack-job preacher on it, gets actively campaigned against by me. Clinton – Edwards would get the nod from me against that ticket.

    The GOP needs to find a rubber room on a desert island to keep Huckabee isolated so he doesn’t hurt himself or others.

  344. Don’t worry, Hucksters campaign is over after Feb. 5th.

  345. I don’t get why people vote based on who the VP is. The veep won’t have any power except by the choice of the prez. If you think the prez candidate is a scum-sucking scoundrel, why would it matter if his running mate is a good guy?

  346. If you think the prez candidate is a scum-sucking scoundrel, why would it matter if his running mate is a good guy?

    It’s not that. It’s a tiebreaker for the undecideds in all but the VPs home state. There it usually delivers the electoral votes.

  347. Well, if the intent is to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, running a ticket that ensures that both racists and sexists won’t vote for you seems like one of the more surefire approaches. Obama has only been pulling about one-third of the white vote, and that’s among liberal Democratic primary voters.

    prole:

    Yes, the choice of a black running mate would hurt them among racists, but my guess is they don’t expect to be getting much of that vote in the general anyway. I’d guess they would think that this would help undo some of the damage the Clintons’ have done themselves in the black community.

    I should also say that I don’t think the VP choice would work – at least not well enough to overcome the big negatives she’s had from the start and win the general. I don’t think she can win (except against Romney, and who knows – maybe even he could beat her). Actually I think her campaign was doomed from the beginning, and certainly from the point at which Obama decided to run.

    I think Clinton could beat Obama in the primary, but the dirt she’d have to roll around in (and already has) will probably kill her general campaign. She can’t really compete at the kind of game he plays campaign wise. She’s been in a tight spot for a while, and they’ve been doing everything that they think might work to still win both, but I think even they realize there’s not a lot of margin for error.

  348. Obama-Richardson would be the best. No question about it.

    Richardson has the extensive experience that Obama lacks, could bring appeal from Latino voters that Obama lacks and has serious libertarian cred, what with his anti-war, pro-gun stance and his “B” from the Cato Institute on his record as governor in 2004 – the best Dem governor in the country.

    Republicans: Could be McCain-Graham or even McCain-Thompson. I think McCain is smart enough to realize that Huckabee would kill him with fiscal conservatives and turn off non-social conservative independents.

    Hopefully Ron Paul would run an indie campaign, and then it would be as close to a libertarian dream election as possible, what with a less socialistic, anti-war, pro-reform Democratic ticket; a anti-corruption, anti-spending (although pro-war) Republican ticket and a populist-libertarian independent.

  349. Hey, have you guys read about how irrelevant you all are?

    http://vdare.com/derbyshire/080126_irrelevance.htm

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