Hillary Clinton

Some Iowa Thoughts

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Jesse blogged last night about the one group of Iowa Caucus voters that Paul won: independents. That comforted some of the Paul people I talked to, but it would have been warmer comfort if, say, Hillary Clinton had won the caucuses. The belief around here is that there is an angry, mobile vote for "change," You hear it on talk radio, too, pissed-off voters who voted for Buchanan in 1992 and 1996 and McCain in 2000 who believe in "the establishment" and want very dearly to burn it down. If Obama didn't look viable they might vote for Paul: They see both candidates as unnaturally honest and straightforward. But Obama is viable, and these voters see a chance to both 1)make a difference instead of a statement and 2)end the craven Clinton campaign. (On the drive to Manchester's Elm St you can see a frightening Soviet realist billboard for Hillary, a glamorous profile of the candidate and gigantic letters spelling "READY.")

The Paul people whose canvass lists include independent voters say they're finding more and more support for Obama and precious little for Clinton. They're of two minds about this. They like the idea of Clinton going down, obviously. But most of them say she's the easiest Democrat to beat, a poll-driven Frankenstein who's taken the wrong position on the war. And, as stated above, they want every angry voter in the state to discover Paul, feeling that once they do they'll be locked in.

The network and bloggy coverage of Iowa has been completely fatalistic about Clinton. I'd normally call that silly: This was the first caucus, she's going to retool her campaign, Obama has to face frontrunner heat for the first time. But I'm startled at how many events that were supposed to boost Clinton completely failed to. The Des Moines Register endorsements actually boosted McCain more than it boosted her. The hostage situation was supposed to refocus attention on her. The resilience of the "Obama's a Muslim" smear was supposed to help her. The Bhutto assassination was supposed to help her, too, but most Iowans who said it was "somewhat" or "very" important voted for Obama. If endorsements and events that were supposed to move the ground for her didn't, what kind of campaign tactics will bring her back? Blistering attack ads? I'd believe that if Romney's blitz against Huckabee hadn't just failed so humiliatingly.

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  1. “If Obama didn’t look viable they might vote for Paul:

    That’s like saying if steaks weren’t available, they might eat shit. Jesus, you Paulites need to get a grip. He’s merely a vehicle for spreading the libertarian message (except for his stand on immigration, his denial of evolution, and his weird belief that the founding fathers envisioned a “robust Christian nation”). He’s not much, but apparently he’s all you’ve got.

  2. I’m glad Hillary lost. I hope this is only the first of many dominoes to fall for her. I don’t want her to be the nominee. That’s too close for comfort. I know lots of Republicans want her to win because they feel she will be the easiest to defeat. But what if we have a stock market crash and a severe recession this year. The Republicans will be blamed because they occupy the White House and the public will turn to the other party which means a Hillary presidency if she’s the nominee.

  3. Huck v. Obama in a general = we all lose

  4. “Huck v. Obama in a general = we all lose”

    Huck v. Obama v. Bloomfield = we still all lose.

  5. Obama can enjoy his day in the sun. He might even win in NH and SC, but HRC will be the Dem. candidate. SHE CAN’T POSSIBLY LOOSE. She has too many people that matter in her handbag.

  6. “Obama can enjoy his day in the sun. He might even win in NH and SC, but HRC will be the Dem. candidate. SHE CAN’T POSSIBLY LOOSE. She has too many people that matter in her handbag.”

    I hope you’re wrong Warren.

  7. I still have yet to figure out what “change” Obama is offering…If anyone’s figured it out, please fill me in. Don’t get me wrong, it’s very catchy. I just don’t know what it means (policy-wise).

  8. Amber: $9.50 minimum wage and higher social security taxes from what i can tell. Yippee!

  9. The comedy website Something Awful is responsible for Mike Huckabee’s popularity.

    In the pomo subforum of their political forum, currently called “Laissez’s Fair: Baruch Obamawitz” is the following:

    TLDR Version: SA creates Chuck Norris facts, Chuck Norris facts make Chuck Norris mega-popular, popularity gets Mike Huckabee popularity because of his endorsements, Huckabee’s popularity will get him elected president.

    And wasn’t it a goon that asked about the Bible or Jesus in the YouTube debates? That debate was when Huckabee really became popular. So I guess the question and Chuck Norris both played a role.

  10. Amber,
    He’s part black. Think how awesome it will be having the same failed policies shoved down our throats by a minority for a change!

    Regarding attack ads, remember that Iowa Caucus voters are very much stupid children. Beyond their pathetic record of handing strong showings to total losers (Bush over Reagan, Gephardt over Clinton, 2nd Place for Pat Freaking Robertson), they are also notorious for their hatred of so called “negative” politics. They just can’t stand it when candidates point out differences between each other. One of Hillary’s State Political Leaders even switched sides because she couldn’t stand how much Hillary was comparing and contrasting. Other states aren’t like that.

  11. Thanks Adrian. I like to be on top of these things. Indeed, significant “change” there. Doubt we’ll even recognize the country in Feb ’09.

  12. . . . . remember that Iowa Caucus voters are very much stupid children.

    Fuck you

  13. Amber, don’t forget he is for fair wages. The government setting our salaries. Yippee!

  14. FatDrunkAndStupid: You bring up a good point. I wonder if Iraqis, Iranians, and (it looks like) Pakistanians will care if a black president bombs them and occupies there countries. I’m sure they’ll be cool with it–After all, progress isn’t these days. And sometimes thousands have to die to make it come about.

  15. Amber –
    I was wondering the same thing last night while Chris Matthews was talking about how Obama was the candidate of “change,” and all the other pundits and political commenters were all like “today, Americans chose ‘change.'”

  16. Obama’s all nice and no substance. That will become apparent soon enough, when Hillary really lights into him.

    However, if it’s Huck vs. Obama, Obama would be better, since the Republicans will probably actually do some of the stuff they say to regain control of the House or Senate and then will shut Obama down. If Huck wins, he’ll push big gov shit that a Dem controlled Congress will like, and if the GOP controls Congress, they’ll go along with it just like with Bush.

  17. The only way to have a “revolution” in a democracy is to vote for a younger, fresher face.
    Sorry to admit Ron’s ain’t.
    I also noticed Obama’s victory speech was the only one that didn’t talk about “I” or “we.” He complimented voters by looking at it as if it were their doing. Which it is!

  18. I still can’t believe that Huckabee beat Romney by 9 points. 9 POINTS!

  19. On the drive to Manchester’s Elm St you can see a frightening Soviet realist billboard for Hillary, a glamorous profile of the candidate and gigantic letters spelling “READY.”

    Coming soon: billboards which say Resistance is Futile.

  20. They like the idea of Clinton going down

    That’s a truly horrifying image.

  21. Reinmoose: Yeah. Those one-liners are killers in the U.S. Just give us a good slogan…it’s like mass hypnosis.

    Ruthless: age ain’t nothing but a number baby. Revolutions are all about concepts. Politics are about policy (or at least they should be). I don’t get the whole Ron is too old B.S. It seems ridiculous and irrelevant. No?

  22. Can we finally put to bed the tired nonsense about how “the Clintons own the Democrat Party” and “it’s a foregone conclusion she’s going to win the nomination?”

    Nobody who knowns anything about the Democratic Party ever believed that.

  23. Better Hillary than Huckabee.

    For that matter, better Edwards than Huckabee.

    Huckabee has all the negatives of every Dem candidate, PLUS he’s a cracker and a Jimmy Swaggart. Edwards and Huckabee would both pick your pocket, but I’d rather be forced to listen to Edwards’ faux inspirational mill story for 4 years than listen to Reverend Huckabee give me that “greeter at a Pat Robertson convention” voice for even an hour.

    Hillary should still go negative. The Romney experience had a lot of unique factors: Romney was already disliked, Iowans “don’t like negative campaigning”, and Huckabee’s supporters are not good targets for negative campaigning because they don’t care about any issue of governance and lined up to back Huckabee just like they line up to back every other smarmy, lying backwoods preacher who comes along.

  24. I hope you’re wrong Warren.

    I’m never wrong. I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken. heh.

    No, it’s possible, it’s happened before. But how much better off will we be with president Obama than the other Clinton? Indeed, a repeat of Clinton getting handed a Republican congress after two years could be the best of all possible worlds.

  25. I guess not.

    Look, the Iowa caucuses are the most undemocratic, insiderish nomination contests in the country. If the sheer power of organiztation and contacts was going to deliver any wins to an establishment candidate like Hillary, it would be in Iowa.

  26. joe | January 4, 2008, 9:24am | #
    Can we finally put to bed the tired nonsense about how “the Clintons own the Democrat Party” and “it’s a foregone conclusion she’s going to win the nomination?”

    Nobody who knowns anything about the Democratic Party ever believed that.

    Hey joe. Care to make it interesting? Again

  27. P Brooks –
    Maybe “Resistance is Useless,” a reference to the demented Vogon soldiers would be a more appropriate reference?

  28. That’s like saying if steaks weren’t available, they might eat shit

    Edward, you’re such a little child and mental midget. Go have Mommy rub your tummy and make you a sandwich. The adults are talking.

    David, there are quite a few closed primaries too, aren’t there? And Paul’s campaign e-mails and reminds people when the registration closes and such. I guess what I mean here is that independents aren’t going to have a lot of influence in many States where you have to declare to vote, and I’d like to think that Rs may just vote their conscience in closed primaries.

    I think we’re being a tad pessimistic about Paul; also, it needs to be said that Obama isn’t anywhere close to a liberaltarian. He’s a New-Dealer, Great-Society Lover and engages in class warfare. The differences are sharp and people need to get it out of their heads that Obama is some kind of breath of fresh air: he ain’t.

  29. Ruthless: its ideas that bring about revolution, not someone’s age or face…
    If Ron Paul fell under a bus this afternoon, would people still be talking about his ideas tomorrow? Undoubtedly. Can we say the same about Obama? No, because he’s just an empty vessel.

  30. Huckabee’s supporters are not good targets for negative campaigning because they don’t care about any issue of governance and lined up to back Huckabee just like they line up to back every other smarmy, lying backwoods preacher who comes along.

    Who else here, especially after last night’s results, wants to punch anyone who suggests that Iowans are better at picking presidential candidates because they take the time to listen to and drill the candidates? Especially after they all hopped in bed with Mike Huckabee after only knowing him for a month or so.

  31. I’m game, Warren, but I don’t know what the rules should be. I’m not saying that Hillary won’t win, just that it’s a competetive race and note a foregone conclusion. She might well pull it out, if she runs the best campaign.

    What do you suggest?

  32. Look, the Iowa caucuses are the most undemocratic, insiderish nomination contests in the country. If the sheer power of organiztation and contacts was going to deliver any wins to an establishment candidate like Hillary, it would be in Iowa.

    Yup, except that Iowa is a two bit backwater that won’t make a gnats ass difference in deciding the race. HRC spent only as much as she needed to stay competitive. Indeed Iowa is so inconsequential, that on the Republican side, front runner Rudy wrote it (and every other state until Florida) off entirely. That will likely prove a fatal error. One a puppetmaster like Clinton shrewdly sidestepped.

  33. Fluffy: “Better Hillary than Huckabee.”

    Better…pack my goddamn bags and get the hell out of here.

  34. Ayn_Randian

    You loony cultists get testy when your saviour loses, don’t you? Did you send Herr Doktor money?

  35. I’m not saying that Hillary won’t win, just that it’s a competetive race and note a foregone conclusion. She might well pull it out, if she runs the best campaign.

    Then there’s no bet here. All I’m saying, is she will win. It will appear competitive, because she will only expend as much cash and clout as is necessary. But she’s got ten times the arsenal available than she’s putting in the field.

  36. Huckabee or Romney was going to win the Iowa caucus. Historically, half the Republicans who attend caucuses are conservative christians.

    The last input I heard from the Iowa Staff for Ron Paul was that it was important for Huckabee to hurt Romney in Iowa. Huckabee has no money and no organization. He cannot win the nomination.

    McCain will now trash Romney in NH. So Romney is toast. Yet, McCain cannot win the nomination either. He also does not have enough money or an organization to run a national program.

    The net outcome is a brokered convention. At least, that was the analysis of the professional organizer working for Ron Paul.

    The only real surprise yesterday was Fred Thompson. How did that zombie pull in 13%?

  37. “it needs to be said that Obama isn’t anywhere close to a liberaltarian. He’s a New-Dealer, Great-Society Lover and engages in class warfare. The differences are sharp and people need to get it out of their heads that Obama is some kind of breath of fresh air: he ain’t.”

    I don’t agree with his politics, but he is a breath of fresh air compared to the Hildebeast. He strikes me as being more sincere and honest than Hillary.

  38. Especially after they all hopped in bed with Mike Huckabee after only knowing him for a month or so.

    You really have no fucking clue what happened yesterday.

  39. Well, Warren, if all that is true, than we expect her to go long on New Hampshire in order to take back the momentum she’s losing. And, according to your theory, if she does that, she will win the state in a romp. Right?

    BTW, how’ve I been doing on holding up my end of the bet?

  40. iowan,

    But you see, a win a Iowa – and a pretty big win for all of that – will bring in the money and allow the creation of the organization. Especially since Huckabee has shown that he can win.

    And if McCain kicks butt in New Hampshire, same thing.

    Can any Republicans give me any insight into what’s going to happen in Wyoming, and if it’s going to matter?

  41. iowan –
    I fear for my life that Mike Huckabee gets a serious surge of cash from so-cons nation-wide.
    I think “independents” of any sort are still voting for McCain for some reason because they remember the McCain of 2000 (which they romanticize as being some sort of moderate). He may, unfortunately, get a lot of the so-lib votes based solely on nostalgia.
    And the media jack-off to him every night. I didn’t realize there were so many daddy-fetishists out there…

  42. Iowan: You’ve got me with the Thompson thing…what the hell was that? This IS bizzaro world. I’d guess it’s that Reagan was an actor, and Thompson is an actor. Thus, idiot kisses idiot and Thompson winds up in third.

    Besides, have you seen the rack on that wife of his?…Nice. God love democracy!

  43. I didn’t realize there were so many daddy-fetishists out there…

    When people see a strong moose and a weak moosew, they naturally like the strong moose, ‘Moose.

  44. The only real surprise yesterday was Fred Thompson. How did that zombie pull in 13%?

    Look at the other R candidates. If you’re pro-war (meaning you exclude Paul), your choices aren’t that great. I think he picked up a substantial portion of the “what-the-f*ck” vote.

  45. BTW, how’ve I been doing on holding up my end of the bet?

    I don’t know joe. Is there some pending house resolution you’ve been biting your tongue over? The stakes were indeed very small. But far as I know you are a man of your word.

  46. @Amber

    I still have yet to figure out what “change” Obama is offering…If anyone’s figured it out, please fill me in. Don’t get me wrong, it’s very catchy. I just don’t know what it means (policy-wise).

    Yeah, it’s catchy enough that Democrats have been riding that meme since JFK. Nobody else has figured it out since then, either. And the advocates of this “change” have never seen fit to define what’s changing. But it does have a nice ring to it, ain’t it?

  47. BakedPeguin: I think that’s probably the best theory I’ve heard so far.

  48. I saw Huckabee speak for the first time last night during his accpetance speech. His message to the national audience was substantially different than it has been to the so-cons that put him in first place.

    If he can keep that new game face on, then there is a real risk he could pull in votes from the rest of the republican coalition. But, it appears that the party establishment hates him, and they will most likely work to promote a more mainstream candidate (which by elimination winds up being Thompson or Guiliani).

    Watching the detailed breakdowns last night, it is clear that Huckabee has no support amongst the non-religious wing of the republicans, is very weak with male voters, and has zero support with independents.

    I don’t see how he gets anywhere in 4 days in NH.

  49. Iowan: You’ve got me with the Thompson thing…what the hell was that?

    My wild ass guess is that Thompson picked the rats fleeing the sinking Romney ship.

  50. re: change. Considering their stance on Social Security Privatization, tax cuts, school vouchers, etc., I’d say that Democrats are the most reactionary political group there is.

    Amber – thx, I’m working on my pundit skills. If I could only f*cking stop swearing, I know there’d be a TV gig for me.

    iowan – re: Huckabee, I hope you’re right. Huck is the absolute worst candidate out there.

  51. Huck is the absolute worst candidate out there.

    No Shit

  52. “a repeat of Clinton getting handed a Republican congress after two years could be the best of all possible worlds.”

    As I’ve said before, Democrats will be making a big mistake if they nominate Hillary. Republicans will turn out in droves to vote against her. Not only will Democrats lose the presidency for the third time in a row, they will lose both houses of Congress and several governorships and state legislatures.

  53. HRC spent only as much as she needed to stay competitive.

    My impression was that Hillary made a pretty sizable late investment of time and money in Iowa. She has basically three messages:

    “Change” – nobody’s buying this from her, especially with Obama making the same pitch much more credibly.

    “Experience” – of course, this conflicts with her Change message, but its also a tough sell to anyone who thinks for 30 seconds. Being somebody’s wife doesn’t really give you experience in doing their job.

    “Inevitability/Electability” – this one just took big hit. If she loses again in New Hampshire, it will be very hard to sell.

    I just don’t think Huckabee has the time or money to build a nationwide organization. This race will be over by the middle of February.

    He needs to win some states that the more or less self-organizing “values voters” can’t deliver to him. New Hampshire will be something of a test for that, although his bump from the Iowa win may last the necessary four days to inflate his numbers there. We’ll see.

    If Romney loses NH, after being governor of neighboring MA, he will be in real trouble.

  54. Pig Mannix: Yeah. I think it could be reasonable to say that the Democratic Party has now become conservative, because it’s all about protecting the status quo. The Republicans, especially since the invention of the party-hopping neo-cons, are now the radicals.

    Someone needs to tell the Democrats that more of the same does not equal “change.” But, I guess I’d have to side with some lame, cardboard Dem frontrunner than a crazy neo-con, terror-war kook. Gross…I don’t like my “choices.”

    BakedPeguin: Don’t stop swearing. It’s entertaining…It can be your thing.

  55. Amber,

    The change Obama is offering, that people respond to, isn’t “policy-wise.”

    He’s not running a policy-heavy campaign. He’s running on his political style – more hopeful, less angry, more willing to work across party lines, and less beholden to the interests and narratives of the Beltway people.

  56. Who else here, especially after last night’s results, wants to punch anyone who suggests that Iowans are better at picking presidential candidates because they take the time to listen to and drill the candidates? Especially after they all hopped in bed with Mike Huckabee after only knowing him for a month or so.

    I can see orthodox christians voting for Huckabee, but THOMPSON? wtf?

  57. Being somebody’s wife doesn’t really give you experience in doing their job.

    No, but being involved in the hatchet sessions to devise new and unique ways to destroy your husband’s opponents gives you lots of experience. Of course, this argument only makes me dislike her all the more. She’s experienced in the same way HR Haldeman or John Dean would have been experienced if they ran in 1976.

  58. He’s not running a policy-heavy campaign. He’s running on his political style – more hopeful, less angry, more willing to work across party lines, and less beholden to the interests and narratives of the Beltway people.

    So he’s running on Joementum?

    ZING

  59. Amber, Penguin,

    Did you notice that everything you list to show how the Democrats support the status quo is about government, rather than about society?

  60. Well, when the electorate and media exclude discussion of issues and/or governing philosophy – because it’s either “wonky” and “boring” [i.e. Gore] or “mean” and “negative”, the candidates have no choice but to campaign on meaningless catchphrases.

    That’s why Obama campaigns by repeating shopworn platitudes about “change” that we’ve heard in every previous election. What else is he supposed to campaign with?

    In addition, campaigning on “change” says all the negative things about Hillary he wants to say, but which he can’t say because our discourse is fundamentally dishonest due to its psychological bounding as outlined above.

  61. Better Hillary than Huckabee.

    I concur wholeheartedly.

    For that matter, better Edwards than Huckabee.

    Note to self: Ensure passports and visas are all current. Check out Swiss and Grenadan bank procedures. Thank Fluffy for the warning of possible disastrous confluence of events.

  62. A fun bizarro-world version of his thread is going on over at Feministing. Between the unabashed Edwards love (?), the “Hilary is only hated because she’s a she” whining, and the squishy white guilt support of Obama it’s fairly entertaining. (At little Ron Paul bashing for seasoning…)

    The only common denominator? Hatred for Huckabee.

  63. I usually have some optimism for Obama’s ability to be different… until I hear him utter words like “change the way we do business in Washington,” which is what I’ve heard SO many times before. Heck, I think even Mitt Romney’s used that phrase.

  64. The only real surprise yesterday was Fred Thompson. How did that zombie pull in 13%?

    He’s on TV (Law and Order) five times a day at least. Duh.

  65. The change Obama is offering, that people respond to, isn’t “policy-wise.”

    He’s not running a policy-heavy campaign. He’s running on his political style – more hopeful, less angry, more willing to work across party lines, and less beholden to the interests and narratives of the Beltway people.

    Oh, I see. Obama is running on a variant of the ‘outsider’ platform of Bush II in the 2000 election.

    Got it.

  66. Joe: God love the “centrists.” Let all the criminals bride each other–look how well we all work together and across party lines. It is what both parties do on foreign policy, because they both have dogs in the fight.

    I don’t want a politician to make me feel warm and fuzzy during election season. I want to know what kind of shit they’re gonna pull when they get in there.

    I would love to feel hopeful about Obama’s campaign. But, alas, I’m at a loss. Actually, I don’t even know where he stands. It all depends on what speech or interview I read–he constantly changes (Aha! I found the “change” everyone’s talking about). I guess there’s some upbeat tone I’m not picking up on. Maybe I’m missing something here.

    This isn’t directed at you specifically, Joe, just thinking out loud. Nasty habit.

  67. SugarFree,

    Feministing never fails to be amusing when you post a link. What really surprised me though is that they refer to Edwards as a “populist” (which he is), but to them that’s a good thing. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen that before. I mean, I’ve seen populists, but they usually avoid the actual term if they can.

    Oh, and there was at least one “I will move to Canada if Huckabee wins” comments. The classics never go out of style–or get fulfilled.

  68. Joe: “Did you notice that everything you list to show how the Democrats support the status quo is about government, rather than about society?”

    Shit, I can’t tell where one ends and the other begins. Help me out here.

  69. joe – yes, I got that Obama is kind of a Reagan-esque, Morning in America Democrat, in the sense that he’s about a positive message. I’m kind of with Amber about the “warm and fuzzies”. Reagan was positive, but his election wasn’t a good morning for anyone who happened to take substances that the establishment doesn’t/didn’t like.

    Also, I’m a libertarian. I’m skeptical about a politician’s ability to foment cultural change outside of the political process, and I’m fearful that a politician trying to do so will ultimately use the political process, especially if that politician believes in the process as a way to achieve results.

  70. Warren,

    I disagree. Clinton will not win the nomination. I originally thought Richardson was the dark horse, but he decided to get weird for the campaign, ? la Bob Graham.

    I have a feeling the senator curse and the lack of experience in the frontrunners is really going to hurt the Democrats in the general election, regardless of who gets nominated.

  71. I’ve been soul-searching all morning about the source of my true distaste for Huckabee, which has been growing constantly, at a faster rate than Huckabee’s poll rise. I’ve also been thinking about the visceral Huckabee hatred at places like the Corner. And I’ve reached at least one conclusion.

    My distaste for Huckabee is amplified by the fact that I am a bigot against people like Huckabee.

    There. I admitted it. It’s out in the open.

    As a libertarian, I’ve gotten used to being on the losing side of political disputes. Quite used to it, in fact. So I’m not freaking out on Huckabee because he’s winning. I’m used to non-libertarians always winning.

    But it was one thing when I had to watch Ivy League technocrats take over the government to try to tell me what to do “for my own good” or “for the public good”. I could dispute that on a policy basis, and toss the “c” word around a bit when I got angry about it, but then accept political reality at the end of the day.

    But I simply cannot abide listening to nanny state bullshit coming out of the mouth of some hick with two years of college and a cracker jack box prize religion degree that he thinks makes him a moral authority. I just can’t do it.

  72. tarran,

    Oh, I see. Obama is running on a variant of the ‘outsider’ platform of Bush II in the 2000 election. And Reagain in 1976 and 1980. Yup. Got it.

    Amber,

    I haven’t the foggiest idea where you go “centrist” from, except for the muddle-headed perception that “centrist,” “moderate,” “bipartisan,” “compromise” and “collegial” all mean the same thing.

    Oh, wait, I do know where you got that from – Chris Matthews, Wold Blitzer, David Broder, Timm Russert, and the Washington Post.

    I don’t want a politician to make me feel warm and fuzzy during election season. I want to know what kind of shit they’re gonna pull when they get in there. I used to think like this, too – vote for the policy wonk. But in our political system, the president isn’t the Editor in Chief of the US Code. Looking at their political style (in the sense of how they operate in office, not their branding on the campaign trail) and their values gives you a better idea of what they will actually work at and accomplish in office.

  73. Meh. All the candidates we thought would be alive are still alive, and that’s all that matters. You can crush ill funded or marginal candidates in Iowa and NH, but you can’t tell anything about HRC’s fate based on how she does here. My hopes were that McCain would die and Edwards would be hurt badly just to get two odious people out of the way, but not so much.

    It pains me that Huck has any traction anywhere, but he has zero chance of being the guy. We’re still looking at Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Romney, McCain, and Rudy.

  74. Obama ==> the coalition of “shiny, happy, people”

  75. I’m happy Hillary Clinton lost despite the fact Obama is a Great Society liberal. I just want the Bushes and Clintons out. Gone. Finished. No mas.

  76. “I’ve been soul-searching all morning about the source of my true distaste for Huckabee, which has been growing constantly, at a faster rate than Huckabee’s poll rise. I’ve also been thinking about the visceral Huckabee hatred at places like the Corner. And I’ve reached at least one conclusion.

    My distaste for Huckabee is amplified by the fact that I am a bigot against people like Huckabee.”

    fluffy-I think that’s very refreshing. Last night I actually got to thinking, after watching both the caucus and the Orange Bowl, about why dislike Romney so very much more than I dislike Huckabee. After all, every goofy fundamentalist platitude that falls from Romney’s mouth falls from Hucks too…

    I have no better conclusion than: 1. I hate people who will say anything to get elected and I feel Romney is that (this is probably why I dislike Hillary so much too) and 2. I like Huck’s folksy delivery style. I realize that such a thing can be faked, but he comes off like one of my neighbors when I used to live down South, the kind of guy whose beliefs I think border madness but who is friendly enough to help you get your dogs when they get out of your fence…

    I know I really should line people up policy wise and vote from there, after all we elect the ideas not the person (in a sense). But there is something about Romney’s “perfect candidate” thing that I detest…

  77. …and all the other boomers, too, Cesar.

    Hopefully, the toach has been passed to a new generation of leadahship.

  78. I think you guys should be more optimistic about Ron Paul. Remember at the beginning of the election the pundits and press saw him as about as competitive as Duncan Hunter. Fourth place behind well known names like Huck, Romney, etc ain’t bad…
    I wonder, can Fox argue he should not be in the debates now (I know they CAN, they are a shameless bunch of bastards, but can they honestly do so or convingly-even-to-a-wingnut?).

  79. I hope so too, joe.

    Whats really funny is, it could be Obama vs. McCain. One before the boomers, one after.

    Thankfully, one was too young to remember the 60s and the other was in a prison camp during the 60s.

    If Obama wins the boomers will have had like, what, only 16 years old leadership? Thats kind of sad how quickly people got sick of them.

  80. My distaste for Huckabee is amplified by the fact that I am a bigot against people like Huckabee.”

    If this were 1850, Huckabee would be selling snake oil nostrums and bees wax salve to rubes.

  81. I think Hillary’s best strategy is to say, without all the apologizing, “There is no way someone like Obama, with his muslim background, interracial heritage, inexperience, and admited wild past is ever going to withstand a GOP onslaught. No way. A vote for Obama is a vote for four more years of war and crazy judges (good-bye Roe!)”.

    It’s sad so many Americans would hold much of those against Obama, but enough will…

  82. “If this were 1850, Huckabee would be selling snake oil nostrums and bees wax salve to rubes.”

    I disagree. The guy would be that friendly neighbor you might have had. He really comes off as honest to me…In some ways, that is scarier…

  83. Joe:

    If you want to play symantics, okay, maybe “bipartisan” is a better term. There.

    I don’t watch Wolf Blitzer, read the Washington Post, or any of the other publications/pundits (I assume) that you listed, so I don’t know what you’re getting at. But, I definitely sensed some negative vibes in your response. What’s with that Joe?

    What label have I been assigned…just out of curiosity. Which “type” am I?

  84. Obama doesn’t fucking have a “Muslim” background. If you ever read his bio, saying his father was a Muslim is like calling me a Catholic.

    Obama’s father was a secular playboy, not a jihadi.

  85. I just want it to be over.
    I’d vote for Stalin himself at this point if he could guarantee closure by next Tuesday.

  86. Cesar,

    McCain has already played the hippie card. Remember, the right side of Boomerdom has always defined itself as being consistent with the slightly older people and those who served in Vietnam.

  87. Can anyone name ONE state that Obama, in the general election, would win that Hillary would not?

    I think though there are states where he would certainly lose where Hillary would have a better chance (TN, WV, AR)

  88. Cesar-What will count is what people will think, and Barak Hussein Obama will scream MUSLIM BACKGROUND with a great deal of folks…Sure, these people could not tell you the difference between a Sunni or Shia, or for that matter find the Middle East on a map, but in this great nation they can vote too…

  89. I think Obama would do better in those states, MNG.

    We’ve just seen that Obama can pull independents in middle-American states better than Hillary.

  90. You know what would be great? If they would just get honest and actually run a giant douche against a turd sandwich and skip all the bullshit.

  91. My wife’s dad is an old school union man who votes Democrat 90% of the time.

    The 10% he doesn’t? When the candidate is not white. And he cannot even PRONOUNCE Obama’s name…

    It’s ugly and stupid, but there it is. I don’t think the number of folks like him are so small as not to make Obama unelectable…

  92. MNG,

    There are a lot of Americans who would jump at the chance to vote for a black guy with a name like that, just to show those politically correct liberals that they are SO not racist, and will happily vote for a minority, so long as he’s one of the good ones.

  93. Obama won over Independents and Republicans in one of the whitest states in America. Thats going to assuage a lot of fears.

    Being from Illinois, he would probably have an easier time winning places like Michigan, Iowa, and Missouri than Hillary.

  94. Missed the discussion yesterday — skiing in Utah. WHOO!

    IIRC, Ron Paul did better than the MSM polls were predicting — wasn’t he at 7% prior to the polls opening? So perhaps all the other polls need to be adjusted up 40% – 50% to reflect Paul’s actual support due to no land lines, better turnout, etc.

    Still not enough to win — but we already knew that. But when was the last time a libertarian got 10% of the vote?

    Glad Giuliani got a beatdown, but he’s still in it. Glad Obama won on the Democratic side — not planning on voting for the d00d, but he’s better than HRC, and she’s better than frickin’ Edwards (who is the Democratic Huckabee, with less Bible-thumpin’ and a big heaping extra helping of populist economic idiocy.)

    Both nominations are still in play — none of the major candidates on either side got knocked out. About the only thing that matters to people here is that the one wild card — were the MSM polls wildly undercounting Paul? — turned out to be a bust.

    I hope I’m totally wrong about Paul, but unless he comes up huge in NH, I’d say we’re left with trying to educate the public about libertarianism, not to win this bad puppy.

  95. Joe-I’m betting those “independents” are the “leaning Democrat” independents. And this is at a time when virtually noone is attacking or has attacked Obama.

    Hillary has not messed with him because she does not want to be seen as racially insensitive or creating bad blood in the party. The Right has laid off Obama. Why attack the guy now? The Right is seen as racially insensitive enough, and they know that, and so they will wait until they have to attack Obama. But when they do, watch out…It’s gonna be bad…

  96. The rule of thumb is that politicians pander to their core constituents during the primary season, the rush back to court the middle-of-the-roaders for the general election.

    Obama won Iowa by a substational margin by chasing the middle-of-the-roaders right from the beginning.

    His acceptance speech last night was exceptionally polished and sounded like he was accepting the nomination at the convention, not taking the first contest.

    If he has the legs for it, he can take the nomination and maybe the white house.

  97. “Being somebody’s wife doesn’t really give you experience in doing their job.”

    Maybe Socks should run. He lived in the White House also.

  98. I am thrilled that Huckabee won last night because it was the worst possible thing for Republicans and that is basically how I am looking at the Republican side, any horrible thing that happens to their voters, candidates, party is wonderful…yeah I’m spiteful after the past 7 years…

  99. But there is something about Romney’s “perfect candidate” thing that I detest…

    How’s this sound? He’s too smooth to be trusted. That’s my take on it. I can’t hate him for his policy positions because they are so malleable. I can’t hate him for being a Mormon, because I believe all religions to be equally lidicrous. Granted it is difficult to get a true sense of an individual through the campaign and media lenses, but somehow complete insincerity from Romney cuts through all of the noise.

  100. Make that ludicrous.

  101. Joe-you don’t think those types of people were going to vote Dem anyway in a general election?

    Look, I hope you and Cesar are right. I’d rather live in that type of country. I just doubt it. I saw what happened to such a candidate in TN…

  102. I think HRC still has this thing locked up. I don’t buy for a minute that people really believe she is the easier candidate to beat nationally. I don’t see an elephant that will beat her nationally. The odd movement of the war into the background has made it more interesting, but the Repub field is just bad. I can’t see a Mormon being able to hold conservatives together. I can’t see McCain and his distinctly unpopular set of maverickisms holding together a coalition. Rudy I could see, but he’s looking worse every day. Too many people seem to feel about Huckabee as I do – that his faith heavy style is too polarizing.

    HRC or Obama could beat the lot of them, and my sense is that HRC’s baggage isn’t going to stick.

  103. But can the “look at me, I’m not racist” vote actually outstrip the “ain’t votin’ for no darkie” vote? That’s the real question.

    I like Obama’s personality (or what comes across the media filter) but, policy-wise, only way I vote for him is as the lesser of two evils against Huckabee or Romney.

  104. I’m not a smart man Jenny, but I know what politickin is.

    Voters in general, don’t care much about policy. Dems want to feel good, and they can about Obama. He makes folks feel comfortable like Bill Clinton did. Twice. The publicans are lookin for a party saviour. Huckabee may fit the bill and the moral majority will have somebody to petition God for the victory.
    It ain’t rocket science. Just simple sales. Obama and the preacher happen to be the the best spokesmodels today.

  105. One positive result of Iowa. Less clutter.

  106. “Being from Illinois, he would probably have an easier time winning places like Michigan, Iowa, and Missouri than Hillary.”

    Hillary’s also from Illinois.

  107. MNG,

    The Democrats go twice as many independent votes as the Republicans last night. In 2007, most independents are Democratic-leaning independents.

    Joe-you don’t think those types of people were going to vote Dem anyway in a general election? No, I think people who are locked into voting for a Democrat in the general election aren’t the ones who feel the need to prove how totally not racist they are.

  108. I’ll vote for anybody to keep Huck from winning anything. Probably the best plausible race for me would be Obama vs. Romney. The worst would be HRC vs. McCain.

  109. Joe:

    Also, one more thing, than I will bug you no more. Since the guy (or gal) will be commander-in-chief of the US armed forces in an era in which the executive can wage unilateral wars, maybe a consideration of their views on at least foreign policy is perhaps relevant. Much more so than a smile, I’d imagine. I would even go so far as to say that policy and voting record are far more important than charisma. I can’t help it; I’ve been pushed to the edge of cynicism and I want to know what I’m getting.

    Don’t get me wrong. Dating unpredictable people can be quite fun, but electing them as leaders, not so much.

    Either way, best wishes all. It has been fun guys. I’m out the door.

  110. I think the winning ticket for the Dems is Hillary-Richardson. Obama-Richardson will be seen as far too ethnic by too many Americans (meaning it will seem like a cheap ploy to win ethnic votes and be “politically correct”).

    On the other side, someone will have to explain to me the hate on Guliani here. IF (and I have always had a big doubt here) libertarians really value the social liberties they talk about at college parties as much as the economic “liberties” they talk about with small business owners, then Guliani, compared to the other front runners, is your man, no question. The man is every bit as economically libertarian as Romney, Thompson or McCain while having a record that he often still defends that is pro-choice, pro-seperation of church and state, pro-stem cell research, and pro-gay rights…Of course you should vote your conscience and if you are a libertarian you’d be a fool not to vote for Ron Paul, but among the media darlings Rudy strikes me as the obvious better choice.

  111. Hillary’s also from Illinois.

    No she isn’t. She’s from New York. Or Arkansas. Or somewhere.

  112. Episiarch,

    I often flip back and forth through the day. It’s hard to resist the lure of Feministing and its commenters’ sloppy logic. It’s the funniest site on the Internet, they just don’t know it. I’m going to push to have the nominated for a Blog award next year in the humor category.

  113. There is no chance that Huckabee is going to win the Republican nomination…Repubs. are very sorry now that they encouraged democracy within their hierarchical party. Also, I think there is little or no chance that the Republican nominee will win anyway…regardless.

  114. Amber,

    That’s a nice false dilemma you present, between “a smile” and “foreign policy views.”

    I already answered you, by explaining the difference between policy positions and guiding beliefs/instincts. Agree, disagree, whatever. Doesn’t make me no nevermind, but don’t expect me to reply if you’re going to completely miss the central point of what I write.

  115. MNG:

    The sense is that Rudy is a bit fond of heavy handed law and order. He also doesn’t like guns so much.

  116. MNG, Giuliani is also an executive-power hoarding, gun-grabbing, torture-loving, police power abusing, imperialist war-loving, smoke-banning, mafia-connected piece of douche.

  117. All of this judging Hillary vs. Obama’s electability based on demographics and background misses the point.

    John Kerry was very electable on paper, he just wasn’t very talented at campaigning. Being a good campaigner is the most important factor in someone’s electability.

    I don’t think there’s much dispute about who the best campaigner on the Democratic side is.

  118. If Obama didn’t look viable they might vote for Paul…

    I believe that sentiment goes to the so-called divided government theory that is popular around here, or maybe even it hearkens back to the anybody but McGovern theme.

    I may be naive, but I don’t think O’bama fans (sounds like an Irishman from the south)can cross the divide. I mean, that’s like saying Daily Kos is a libertarian.

  119. “I already answered you, by explaining the difference between policy positions and guiding beliefs/instincts.”

    You have to pay off your coalition and you have to stay in office. I suspect most policy position and most beliefs have little to do with how one actually governs. I further suspect that the narrative for any Democrat going into office is ‘don’t be ideological’, so we will see a return to government by polls.

  120. Guiliani says we need to submit to his authority to be free.

    Guiliani is a libertarian only in doublespeak.

  121. Huck v. Obama in a general = we all lose

    Yes, but in the end:

    Anybody v. Pretty Much Anybody Else in a general = we all lose

  122. “Huck v. Obama v. Bloomfield = we still all lose.”

    Huck v. Obama v. Bloomberg v. Paul = we all win

  123. Clinton is from the Chicago suburbs, originally, so I’d like to know her position on fois gras.

  124. MNG – maybe “social liberties” means something different to you than it does to us. Giuliani is no friend of the 2nd amendment, legalized gambling, due process, medical marijuana (or teh drugs in general). He was a micro manager of New York, instituting nanny state laws that would have made the worst Democrat proud. He’s also one of the biggest advocates of torture. All that outweighs the fact that he’s okay with gay marriage.

  125. People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with a muppet rather than the guy that laid them off someone competent.

  126. See ya Amber. Come back again some time.

  127. I agree with JasonL. Policy positins as discussed on the campaign trail are primarily used, both by the campaigns and by the voters, as evidence of a candidate’s values, beliefs, and governing style.

    The gory details of Barack’s health care plan vs. Hillary’s health care plan don’t matter much, because neither’s plan is going to survice contact with Congress.

    On the other hand, we can be very confident that the differences we’ve seen in how Hillary and Bill Richardson speak about issues and actions actually do represent a difference in, for example, their ideas about executive power and their capacity/willingness to play nice with Congress.

  128. “HRC or Obama could beat the lot of them, and my sense is that HRC’s baggage isn’t going to stick.”

    Obama is the only one that defeats all the Republicans in the latest poll I saw and more handily than does Hillary. Hillary only beat Guiliani by 1 point and lost to McCain by 5 points.

    Hillary lost Iowa and is not doing so well in New Hampshire and South Carolina because those are the states she has campaigned in. She is her own worst enemy. If she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina and when she starts campaining in the other states and people compare her phony personality to Obama’s, she could very well go down the tubes.

    You could be right about one thing, Jason. Her baggage may not stick in the general election but only because the MSM will get behind her when and if she becomes the nominee. But there are plenty of other sources out there that will be bringing up her baggage. Remember the swift boaters in the last election.

  129. From CNN:

    In Iowa, entrance polls of caucus-goers showed that 3 out of every 5 Republicans were self-described born again or evangelical Christians. Huckabee beat Romney by better than 2-to-1 in this voting bloc. Among the rest of Iowa’s Republican electorate, however, Huckabee finished a distant fourth behind Romney, McCain and Fred Thompson.

  130. Hillary’s also from Illinois.

    Meh. We’ve kind of disowned her. Arkansas and New York can have her. Besides, I’m not sure that being from Chicagoland is an advantage anywhere in the Midwest outside Chicagoland.

  131. New York can have her

    NO! Take her back highnumber! PLEASE take her back!

  132. highnumber and Reinmoose – send her back to Arkansas. If they’re going to inflict Huckabee on the rest of teh nation, they deserve her.

  133. “MNG – maybe “social liberties” means something different to you than it does to us. Giuliani is no friend of the 2nd amendment, legalized gambling, due process, medical marijuana (or teh drugs in general). He was a micro manager of New York, instituting nanny state laws that would have made the worst Democrat proud. He’s also one of the biggest advocates of torture. All that outweighs the fact that he’s okay with gay marriage.”

    Doesn’t sound much like a libertarian to me. Why does Dondero think he’s so libertarian?

  134. Why does Dondero think he’s so libertarian?

    Raw Stupidity, perhaps.

  135. In 2000, the last time there was a contested caucus for both parties, the Republicans turned out 86,000 people and the Democrats turned out 59,000.

    This time, the Republicans turned out 115,000 – an impressive 30% increase – and the Democrats turned out 236,000. Doing the math in my head, that is an increase of sixty bajillion percent.

    Iowas vote for George W. Bush twice.

  136. The entire Republican platform and and agenda is about bringing out the absolute lowest part of everyone’s character. They want the law of the jungle and cater to the basest instincts at all times…I don’t think they are going to win this election because I think that message has gotten a bit tired.

  137. RJ – because he’s a cross dresser, and he supports the War in Iraq.

    Oh, and so does Giuliani.

  138. iowan | January 4, 2008, 11:38am | #

    Why does Dondero think he’s so libertarian?

    Raw Stupidity, perhaps.

    nahh. Seems rather refined to me, almost complete.

  139. Stupidisushi?

  140. Stupidisushi

    Nice

  141. “Guiliani says we need to submit to his authority to be free.”

    Talk about Orwellian newspeak! Authority = freedom.

  142. Iowas vote for George W. Bush twice.From realclearpolitics:

    Wrong:

    Results from 2000 Election: Bush 48.2, Gore 48.5, Nader 2.2 (Gore +0.3)

  143. highnumber,

    On the outside chance (in my mind), that HRC wins the election, they will erect a gaudy statue of her in Park Ridge. Whatever horrors she perpetrates on our nation will be entirely blamed on Chicago and Chicagoans.

    joe,

    Iie, bakasashimi. Wakarimasu ka?

  144. J sub D:

    Are there people who will actually vote democrat in MI after the D’s snubbed them? I would imagine many of those MI Dems would vote for Paul. Or may be not.

  145. Talk about Orwellian newspeak! Authority = freedom.

    doublespeak

    You didn’t recognize that?

  146. In Iowa, the only three who actually won entire countries were Mike, Mitt, and Ron. No one else.

  147. “MNG, Giuliani is also an executive-power hoarding, gun-grabbing, torture-loving, police power abusing, imperialist war-loving, smoke-banning, mafia-connected piece of douche.”

    Agreed, but the rest of the GOP field is every bit as crazy on executive power, war and torture (with the exception of McCain on torture) without being better on abortion, gay rights, immigration, seperation of church and state, etc. I’ll grant you guys the 2nd Amendment issue, I just don’t see how that outwieghs his coolness on the lifestyle issues (and I am a longtime gun owner). At that debate where they asked the question about the Bible being literally true his answer was gold and easily the ballsiest one for a GOP frontrunner.

    You have to consider that Rudy was in NYC for pete’s sake, that is a pretty liberal place (and fun place btw). And unlike Mitt, who was also in a liberal place, he has not (well, not as much) p*ssy-like scrambled away from every position he took there. That stands for something in my book…

  148. I screwed up a simple cut and paste (sigh)

    From realclearpolitics:

    Results from 2000 Election: Bush 48.2, Gore 48.5, Nader 2.2 (Gore +0.3)

  149. I love how some HnR posters are dumping on Iowa voters. Come November you’re going to see roughly the same level of stupidity from sea to shining sea.

  150. But can the “look at me, I’m not racist” vote actually outstrip the “ain’t votin’ for no darkie” vote? That’s the real question.

    No one can see who you vote for in the privacy of the booth, so there “look at me” factor doesn’t really carry a lot of weight.

    It used to be that black candidates always overperformed in polling compared to the actual voting outcome. The usual explanation was that people were unwilling to tell a pollster they wouldn’t vote for the black guy, but perfectly willing to do something different when it counted.

    Dunno how much this is still true.

  151. Talk about Orwellian newspeak! Authority = freedom.

    The slogan is actually FREEDOM IS SLAVERY.

    And it’s doublethink, not doublespeak.

  152. Has anyone pointed out the plus side of a possible Huckabee nomination – that the Republican “coalition” would at last be blown into smithereens?
    At least I see it as a plus, but I usually vote for the L’s, so I’m probably a goof.

  153. The caucuses are over.

    This is the last day for this handle (unless people find new reasons to insult the glorious state of Iowa).

  154. “Stupidisushi?”

    I’m not opposed to rolls, but I really prefer stupid-nigiri to stupid-maki. It’s a texture thing.

  155. joe-You see, many Democrats though Kerry to be very “electable.” But that demonstrates how out of touch they were with Americans that do not share their worldview. They thought “oh, Kerry is a war hero and we are in a war, and those country folks like ’em some war hero’s.” Well, one thing those country folks HATE are war protestors, so Kerry’s service was bound to be cancelled out. He was also from Massachussets for God’s sake. I like Mass. stands for the most part but it is a state VERY different from, say, West Virginia or Tennessee or Arkansas, all of which could be in play in a Presidential election.

  156. And it’s doublethink, not doublespeak.

    Oops!

    Stayed up to late mourning the 5th place finish of RP 😉

  157. iowans are in no way stupider than other Americans – it’s just that they like corn a whole lot more and make the rest of us eat it too.

  158. Ali,

    That’s an interesting point. I just read an article locally (in Florida) about their being a high number of registration changes–Democrat-to-Independent and Democrat-to-GOP–presumably resulting from the punishment that Florida is getting for moving its primary. Personally, I think that is a very stupid move on the DNC’s part, and it may actually affect the outcome of the election. Or not. Maybe the fourth largest state and the largest “in play” doesn’t really matter in presidential elections.

    iowan,

    Minnesota uses caucuses, too, right? I’m willing to insult them. They trash Iowans like crazy, anyway (I lived in Minneapolis for a year).

  159. There, their, they’re, thar.

  160. MNG,

    I don’t get this idea that we should support a candidate who has awful positions just because he’s stuck with them and is apparently sincere. I’d much rather have a flip-flopper who’s just parroting statist positions to get elected (Romney) than one who truly believes his statist positions (Huckabee, Giuliani).

  161. Hai, Pro Libertate-san, domo.

  162. Mussolini was sincere.

  163. Stupidisushi?

    I don’t like this term because, even though I know that’s not what it means, it looks like someone is hating on sushi. I suddenly feel compelled to defend sushi, as i’ve been considering it as a part of my new handle.

  164. iowan,

    I might be living in your state when the general occurs…do you know what the deadline is for voter registration?

    (I would be moving there in August if I get a good fellowship offer from U of Iowa)

  165. joe
    Think of the folks who were swayed by the Jesse Helms ad, or the Willie Horton ad, or the Max Cleland-morphing-into-Osama ad, or Swift Boat. Are you arguing these would not play in West Virginia or Arkansas?

    Now think of ad’s attacking Barak Hussein Obama, interracial candidate whose father was foriegn and who admitted doing cocaine.

    As I said, hello Iran war, good-bye Roe v. Wade!

  166. I might be living in your state when the general occurs…do you know what the deadline is for voter registration?

    I think the newspaper said yesterday that the law changed to allow same-day registration (register at the polls). The standard used to be 10 days prior to the election.

  167. That’s Pro Libertate-sama to you, joe-san. Submerge yourself in a vat of fugu poison for as long as it takes you to come up with ten haikus pleasing to me.

    Baka, incidentally, is stupid or idiot in Nihon-go, if I understand these things correctly. It’s been a long time since that Japanese class.

  168. Crimethink-one problem is that contrary to public opinion, politicians who make public promises tend to keep them (or make some attempt to keep them), so whether Romney means his goofiness or not is largely irrelevant…In addition, as I mentioned on another post, it could be the case that Romney believes, fervently, every flip and flop. There are people who change positions on major issues, sometimes doing complete 180’s, and support their flipped position with some fantacism…That’s truly frightening…There is some evidence from his bio that Romney is actually just a very guillible salesmen type of guy…

  169. Pro Libertate-

    Yeah, if nothing else I would imagine those dems probably spreading their vote between Paul and G as the former is staunchly anti-war and the latter is very “Dem looking”.

  170. MNG,

    In the polling on election day, Kerry scored very high on “strong leader” (WTF?), which is best read as a statement that his “strong enough to be commander in chief” shtick actually worked, and people weren’t viscerally opposed to “the war protestor.” War protestors are not seen as “strong leaders.”

    The Democrats who voted for Kerry because his record looked electable were right. He lost because of “flip-flopper” and “phoney” and other things that went to his ability to articulate his case and willingness to take stands, not because his background made him unelectable. It wasn’t his record and background that were the problem.

    Somebody with better political skills and Kerry’s record would have won.

  171. Huck also impressed me with his stand against Bush’s foriegn policy. In the GOP right now, that takes some balls, and some sense.

  172. I actually prefer the caucus process because it it a lot more participatory than the normal American elite democracy where voters get a chance to endorse the policies of elites every few years.

  173. MNG,

    I don’t think racially-charged ads are going to work as well against Obama as they would against other black candidates. He doesn’t seem to set off people’s “scary black man” alarms, for whatever reason.

  174. HRC should go sailboarding.

  175. Baka, incidentally, is stupid or idiot in Nihon-go, if I understand these things correctly. It’s been a long time since that Japanese class.

    Yeah, well, it’s been a while since I read Shogun, too.

  176. joe
    I’d argue that the flip-flop stuff worked so well on him because he was, well, a career Mass. liberal (part of his “record”) with a voting record to match who, when considering a Presidential run, made some contrary votes as well.

    I could have sworn polling gave Bush the upper hand on security, right? That’s where that war protestor stuff would come in.

  177. MNG,

    Such ads might have a significant effect in the south but the Democrat isn’t going to win there anyway.

  178. “My wife’s dad is an old school union man who votes Democrat 90% of the time.”

    “The 10% he doesn’t? When the candidate is not white. And he cannot even PRONOUNCE Obama’s name…”

    “It’s ugly and stupid, but there it is. I don’t think the number of folks like him are so small as not to make Obama unelectable…”

    I know people like that myself, but the polls do show that Obama could beat every Republican candidate and more handily than could Hillary.

  179. MNG,

    Bush lead on security/terrorism, but by a significantly smaller margin than previous Republican candidates.

  180. Southern States: PLEASE consider secession…this time we will let you go.

  181. I actually prefer the caucus process because it it a lot more participatory than the normal American elite democracy where voters get a chance to endorse the policies of elites every few years.

    The issue isn’t the caucus. The caucus is a state-level party function to encourage grassroots development of state-level party officials.

    The “straw poll” for republicans and “preference poll” for democrats should not mean anything to anyone.

    It’s not Iowans that turn this into a circus.

  182. crimethink-I see the GOP as a very “groupthink” party right now, so I admire anyone who can break with the party (McCain on torture, Huckabee on foriegn policy, Rudy on abortion, Paul on the war) and despise one who pretty much swallows teh Party Line and regurgitates it right back (Romney).

    In addition, the say-anything-to-win mentality of Romney (and HRC I would submit) are examples of a mindset wanting power without principle, and I submit that kind of ambition for power (ultimately over other people) is scary. As McCain has said when he is asked about certain strongly held beliefs of his hurting him “I don’t want to be President that bad.” Shit, I can admire that more than “I will say or believe anything to be President.”

  183. Us southerners tend to see Obama as a “happy negro what knows the rules” type of fella. I know it is really very wrong, but we tend to be a tad slow here. I must also resubmit my contention that he has the brotherbill Clinton “aww shucks” charisma which is what a lot of unsatisfied (poor) voters are looking for.

  184. Joe, John Kerry really wasn’t all that electable on paper. He played up the war hero shtick but he wasn’t exactly John McCain. Theres also the problem of his (lets face it) wacky far-left testimony before Congress, throwing his medals away, etc. For baby boomer swing voters that sets off the “damned hippie” alarm.

  185. on the subject of John Kerry:
    I know it’s really immature but seeing clips on TV of him over the last week or so reminded me of exactly how dry and hilarious he sounds. I now say normal phrases in his voice and it absolutely cracks me up.

  186. MNG,

    How has Huckabee “broken with” Bush on foreign policy? Each of the candidates has criticized some aspects of the implementation of that foreign policy, but none have questioned the policy itself. Didn’t Huck have that famous “we must keep honor” back and forth with Paul at the last Fox debate?

  187. James | January 4, 2008, 12:10pm | #

    Southern States: PLEASE consider secession…this time we will let you go.”

    We cain’t get loose from the federal teet long enough to consider it. Sorry

  188. One of the highlights of the local coverage that you folks wouldn’t have seen was the local sportscaster asking all the candidates sports related questions.

    This year the University of Northern Iowa (Division 1A) went undefeated in the regular season and lost in the playoffs to Delaware.

    The sportscaster asked Dodd (I think), who played football for Delaware, if it would have been better for his presidential chances for Delaware to lose, he responded “some things are more important than being president”.

  189. Are there people who will actually vote democrat in MI after the D’s snubbed them? I would imagine many of those MI Dems would vote for Paul. Or may be not.

    I really don’t see a backlash against the Dems for snubbing Michigan, but I live in Detroit and a Republican can expect to garner 5% of the vote here. I do detect a growing appreciation/excitement about Obama’s campaign.

    IMHO (no research provided or done by me), there is concern, waning but still large, in the African American community that a black man cannot win the general election, but HRC can.

    Which brings up a question that occured in my convoluted thought processes during breakfast. Which of the following is the a biggest negative in the general election?

    A white Methodist FEMALE?
    A BLACK United Church of Christ male?
    A white MORMAN male?

  190. ProGLib,

    Have you ever been to Park Ridge? They don’t go for gaudy. It’s a nice, quiet (except that it’s near O’Hare), quaint suburb, especially for how near the city it is. Here is a fairly typical street scene.

    If you grew up in the western suburbs, I could tell you that Elmhurst is its western analog.

  191. Cesar,

    That’s just not what the exit polling and elections results showed.

    You don’t come closer than any candidate in history to beating a sitting wartime president, or scoring highly on the “strong leader” question (again, WFT?) if swing voters see as a soft far-leftie.

    And I think we can all agree that it wasn’t any demonstration of courage or leadershhip on the campaign trail that got Kerry those results. And it certainly wasn’t his record in the Senate, which he barely metioned. I’m left to conclude that it was his background and physical appearance.

  192. “IMHO (no research provided or done by me), there is concern, waning but still large, in the African American community that a black man cannot win the general election, but HRC can.”

    They need to see the polls that show Obama more handily defeating all the Republican candidates than Hillary does.

  193. I just don’t know…and I say this as a Liberal Democrat…who the big Hillary supporters are, I mean I work in politics and I know only one or two. Who are these people?! Is is just women? No idea.

  194. I’m left to conclude that it was his background and physical appearance.

    I do have to admit I find it hard to vote for reverse-Centaurs (body of a man, head of a horse)

  195. The black “civil-rights” establishment doesn’t like Obama because (my God!) he talks about things other than race. He actually tries to reach out to white people, how dare he!

    He should be having a fit over the Jenna Six instead!

  196. Cesar –
    Does anybody here watch CSPAN call-ins after debates? They are so much more entertaining than watching the fat-heads talk about what happened.

    I remember one time a guy called in on the republican line after the democrats debated and commented on Obama. He said that we couldn’t have a black man as president, and when the proctor asked him why, he said that he’d pave over the lawn to install a basketball court and would have all of his buddies over to have a barbeque, and play loud rap music.

    I really think this guy was serious, and I really really really really hope that people aren’t thinking about that sort of thing when they go to the polls.

  197. They need to see the polls that show Obama more handily defeating all the Republican candidates than Hillary does.

    Many blacks know American’s historical enmity towards blacks and believe it will show up in voting booths despite the polls. That’s not paranoid thinking, that’s experience talking.

  198. Reinmoose-

    Around 80% of people who actually call into C-SPAN are psychos, dipshits, or both. But I do agree its good entertainment to watch them say inane things. Its even better when its Brian Lamb hosting, because he actually calls them out on their bullshit.

    I live in Virginia, and not NOVA Virginia, the “real world” of Virginia has George Allen would say. I’ve had rednecks tell me they think Obama is an ok guy (something they will not say about either Clinton) , so I don’t think his race will hurt him too much.

  199. here’s a thought

    If you and this magazine werent’ so fucking myopic about the RON PAUL 24/7 COVERAGE EXPRESS!! maybe you’d be less surprised by Obama’s success.

    Get a grip indeed. Given the range of choices = “BAD or WORSE!”, many people are going to go for Obama mainly because he’s open ended.

    I think people who assume he’s a political ideologue who’s going to outspend Bush II or create the final nanny state, I think you have ask = which candidate *that can actually win* would do the LEAST damage?

    Probably Obama. Paul is nice and all, but he aint winning dick. Once you get over this, you can choose not to vote at all, or choose the least of all evils.

    I mean, Edward, for all his senseless vituperation, has had a point from the beginning.

  200. I still can’t believe that Huckabee beat Romney by 9 points. 9 POINTS!

    The evangelicals want a Christian government. You can’t have a Christian government with a non-Christian in charge. Mormons aren’t Christian.*

    *Their opinion, not mine.

    Yeah, it’s catchy enough that Democrats have been riding that meme since JFK. Nobody else has figured it out since then, either. And the advocates of this “change” have never seen fit to define what’s changing.

    Actually it means “hold on to your loose change, cause after we’re done that’s all you’ll have left.”

    I don’t agree with his politics, but he is a breath of fresh air compared to the Hildebeast. He strikes me as being more sincere and honest than Hillary.

    Actually, I’d rather have a politician pushing the nannystate because she wants reelection rather than one who sincerely thinks the nannystate is good for us. The one who believes he’s doing us a favor will work harder to succeed. The one who wants reelected will at least occasionally listen to us.

    Being somebody’s wife doesn’t really give you experience in doing their job.

    It does if you did their job for them.

  201. Gilmore –

    Edward was a Richardson supporter, so he really never had any grounds for making a “Choose somebody who can win” type of criticism.

    I know the Democrats don’t release raw vote numbers, but it looks to me like more people showed up to caucus for Paul in Iowa than for Richardson.

  202. Fluffy,

    126,000 Democrats caucuses, and the delegates are allocated by %.

  203. highnumber,

    Don’t give me that. Illinois is still going on about Lincoln. If Chicago gets someone in office, the gaudy statue will be the least of it.

    joe, I took Japanese in college (in 1985) and went to Tokyo in 1997. My entire range of Japanese by the time I got there was about that of someone who had just read Shogun. I had to make little rainy motions to order water. I am so ashamed.

    The only useful phrase my Japanese classmates gave me was oki opai, which means big “bouncy, bouncy”. To this day, I have old college friends who say that.

  204. Fluffy | January 4, 2008, 1:05pm | #

    Gilmore –

    Edward was a Richardson supporter, so he really never had any grounds for making a “Choose somebody who can win” type of criticism.

    I sit corrected.

  205. Libertate-sama,

    Silflay hraka, u embleer rah.

  206. PL,

    At the very least, you could have graciously greeted Mr. Roboto had you happened to meet someone with that name.

  207. Why the hell does James feel it necessary to clutter up the the message board with his leftist BS. Here’s my responses to everything he’s said.
    1. Republicans might have embraced deficits and a psychotic foreign policy, but Dems invented those things (thanks a lot, FDR).
    2. Sure it would be nice to get rid of the southern Baptists who would elect one of their ministers president, but they provide a useful counterbalance to stupid northern “union label” populists.
    3. Participatory democracy like the caucus system is stupid. It just attracts political junkies with an axe to grind. I personally would be prefer a system where you have one elitist branch of government with elections every ten years and another that is populist and has annual elections. That way, they might possibly balance each other out.
    4. If you can’t say anything intelligent, then be a good environmentalist and don’t waste our air, m’kay?

  208. Karl Rove must have been working his hardest to fracture the Republicans all along. I’m hoping for a Hillary vs. Huckabee general election now, for the train wreck factor.

    Also Obama seems nice but he comes from the Chicago political machine. New York City has nothing on the shit that goes down in Chicago.

  209. economist | January 4, 2008, 1:51pm | #

    Econ = I dont disagree much with anything you say… or rather dont care or agree with James’ sentiments, but also dont mind his POV… but in particular, I’d mention that ending a post with the expression “M’kay?” translates into: “I am a fucking smarmy douchebag who needs to constantly repress powerful homosexual instincts” to the casual reader.

    Tell me about your father.

  210. Also Obama seems nice but he comes from the Chicago political machine. New York City has nothing on the shit that goes down in Chicago.

    Whoa~! But if anything, isnt that *good*?

    I prefer dirty urban politics to Washintonian lobbyist-gladhanding and populist pandering. e.g. Clinton being the DC madam, and Obama being the southside kid. Maybe he’ll have the secret service leave horses heads in senators’ cars if they start to fuck with him.

    Basically, I want a president who isnt afraid to bash a few heads in with a baseball bat.

  211. Sorry, joe, I don’t understand Rabbit.

  212. Psychologist
    First of all, if you can’t rebutt my views with your own argument, then shut the hell up rather than coming back with obnoxious ad hominem attacks. What the hell pissed you off so much!? Also, I’m not a homosexual. The “m’kay” is a reference to South Park. Idiot.

  213. Psycho,
    1 more thing is that if someone makes some bizarre accusation against someone else out of the blue it says more about them than the person they’re accusing.
    If you understand what I’m saying, then you aren’t as stupid as I originally thought.

  214. economist

    By reacting so strongly to the suggestion that you might be a homosexual, you reinforce the impression that you probably are one, m’kay?

  215. Ed
    I was simply turning Psycho’s snide little back on him/her. And why don’t you just shut up?

  216. I believe that referencing South Park only reinforces the likelyhood of you having latent homosexual tendencies.

  217. These last few comments are really damn weird

  218. Southernstrong>New England States: PLEASE consider secession…. and take California with you.

  219. Stupid HTML. First time I don’t perview . . .

  220. How does referencing South Park “reinforce the likelyhood *sic* of me having latent homosexual tendencies. And how did we get to arguing about this shit anyways?

  221. If you can’t say anything intelligent, then be a good environmentalist and don’t waste our air, m’kay?

    If nothing else, this indicates that you’re a real prick.

  222. I’m with the fucking engineer on this one dude.

    Man who thinks they can come onta’blog and say, “hey, you, shut up!” is too fucking stupid to actually be an ecomonisticist.

    Hey, phychologist, my wife says i fuck too much cause i hate my mom. Whats up with that?

  223. engineer | January 4, 2008, 4:23pm | #

    I believe that referencing South Park only reinforces the likelyhood of you having latent homosexual tendencies.

    says the fella pullin the train…

  224. Yeah, I’m not actually an economist, Einstein. And you’re probably no coal miner, “engineer” probably isn’t an engineer, and psycho isn’t a psychologist. And I told Ed to shut up because all his comments are stupid or off topic. Other bloggers here said it, I just said it more strongly. I really am surprised this part of the thread has gone on this long. I’ve noticed that I’ve never seen any other posts by you guys, suggesting that you are, instead, James’s alter egos.

  225. Hopefully, the toach has been passed to a new generation of leadahship.

    joe, if Obama gets in, the proper phrasing would be “Hopefully, the toach roach has been passed to a new generation of leadahship.” 😉


  226. economist | January 4, 2008, 6:36pm | #
    Yeah, I’m not actually an economist, Einstein. And you’re probably no coal miner, “engineer” probably isn’t an engineer, and psycho isn’t a psychologist. And I told Ed to shut up because all his comments are stupid or off topic. Other bloggers here said it, I just said it more strongly. I really am surprised this part of the thread has gone on this long. I’ve noticed that I’ve never seen any other posts by you guys, suggesting that you are, instead, James’s alter egos.

    Naw dude. it was just some other local beatin you stupid cause its a good laff when the self rightous come callin.

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