Web-Allen, Ct'd…

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At 97.5 percent, it's Allen by less than 5,000.  But the remaining precincts are heavily black areas of Richmond, and parts of Fairfax, which is heavily Democratic.  MSBNC reports that Webb staffers also say most of the 30,000+ absentee ballots are from Loudon, Fairfax, and Prince William Counties.  Fairfax will deliver pretty significantly to Webb.  They think Loudon and Prince William absentees will favor Webb, too, but by slighter margins.

A recount is certain, now.  The only question is who will begin the recount with a lead.  Webb and Allen staffers may want to think twice about which position they'd rather have.  Some strategists actually say it's better to be behind in a close recount, because you can keep counting and searching for votes until you find enough to take the lead.  In most states, the first recount is easy.  Winning a second recount after you've been overtaken by the first one is generally quite a bit tougher.

Not exactly sure what the procedure is in Virginia after the first recount.

UPDATE:  CNN and the Richmond Times Dispatch are reporting that Webb has pulled into the lead, by about 2,300 votes.  The Virginia Secretary of State's Office still has Allen on top by less than 2,000.  The CNN numbers show a larger total number of votes cast, so maybe they're getting info that's not making it to the website.

UPDATE II:  With about 18 precincts left to report, the Secretary of State's Office now shows a less than 2,000 vote lead for Webb.  Provisional and absentee ballots will be counted over the next week.

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  1. Radley,

    It is an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%; the automatic recount would be paid by the state in this instance. If the margin is above 0.5%, then any recount must be requested by one of the candidates and they must in par pay for it.

  2. So….who is going to play Katherine Harris in the recount?

  3. A 0.05% margin will work out to about 11-12,000 votes.

  4. Very happy to see that it’s not over yet.

    Also very happy to hear about Santorum. I suppose it’s too much to hope that he will just go away now. Maybe withdraw to a life of quiet prayerful contemplation. This sinner would sure appreciate it.

  5. 11:48 PM Tuesday, November 7, 2006

    F Allen Republican 1,114,969 49.47%

    J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,111,806 49.33%

    G G Parker Independent Green 24,907 1.11%

    Total: 2,253,907

  6. A 3,163 vote spread.

  7. CNN just put Webb up by 2000 votes

  8. CNN has Webb pulling into the lead by abouot 2500. Gotta say, I hope Allen goes down hard.

  9. Oops, cross-posted.

  10. Allen: 1,138,000
    Webb: 1,141,000

  11. But it isn’t really a recount until the absentee ballots are counted for the first time. So first we have to finish the first count, then hold a recount.

    This is going to be messy. Here’s hoping that, one way or another, one of the parties picks up enough seats to render Virginia irrelevant to the question of who controls the Senate. Oh, it will still be a highly contested recount, but not nearly as severe as it will be if VA decides all.

  12. Okay, so maybe my stick a for in Webb comment on the other thread was a bit premature… 🙂

  13. “The Terminator” has won in California.

  14. Think you mean .5%, Joe.

    There aren’t going to be 20 million + votes in VA.

  15. Here’s hoping that, one way or another, one of the parties picks up enough seats to render Virginia irrelevant to the question of who controls the Senate.

    There’s no way the Dems can control the Senate without VA – there just isn’t another race they can pick off at this point. What’s worse is they must not only get this one but also MT and MO, and MO isn’t looking good right now (though it is early and I have no idea about the Dem/GOP breakdown of what has been counted so far).

  16. Brian Courts,

    We’ll forgive you. 😉

  17. Some strategists actually say it’s better to be behind in a close recount, because you can keep counting and searching for votes until you find enough to take the lead.

    Just ask Christine Gregoire in WA. She demanded three recounts (magically finding new uncounted ballots each time) until she wins the governorship by less than a thousand votes, then stops. The whole thing stank to high heaven.

  18. Brian Courts,

    I am hearing that many of the urban areas of Missouri have not reported yet.

  19. Say what one will about Santorum (and I am certainly not in agreement with him on many issues), but he did concede graciously.

  20. “(though it is early and I have no idea about the Dem/GOP breakdown of what has been counted so far)”

    I’ve been listening to St. Louis radio coverage, and it sounds like the precincts yet to report are disproportionately urban/black/liberal. That race should tighten up over the next hour or two, just like VA and TN are.

  21. ” she wins the governorship by less than a thousand votes, then stops.”

    who would demand a recount after they were ahead??

  22. 12:06 AM Wednesday, November 8, 2006

    G F Allen Republican 1,141,753 49.44%

    J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,139,885 49.36%

    G G Parker Independent Green 25,604 1.11%

    Write Ins 2,270 0.10%

    A difference of 1,868 votes.

    Total: 2,309,512

  23. Precincts Reporting: 2423 of 2443 (99.18%)

  24. Zeno,

    CNN has those numbers, but reversed names for Webb and Allen. Hmmmm

  25. Per CNN

    Virginia Senate
    Updated: 12:09 a.m. ET

    Democratic Webb
    1,143,144
    Republican Allen
    (Incumbent)
    1,140,879

  26. Lost,

    I’m getting these from the VA website: http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm

  27. zeno,

    yes, yes you are

  28. Lost,

    Does CNN get its numbers independently of the main VA election office? That is, from the precincts themselves?

  29. Wow – wouldn’t it be great if it didn’t matter who was in the lead going into the first recount? Or the second recount? Or how hard it is to come back after being overtaken in a recount? I mean, it shouldn’t matter, right? Math is math. Just count ’em up. Count ’em up again to be sure. Jebus, elections are such a mess.

    Yes, I know. Water’s wet. Sky’s blue.

  30. “The third set of vote returns come from the vote tallies done by local officials. The local figures become more complete as more precincts report vote returns. The county or township vote is put into statistical models, and EMR makes estimates and projections using those models. In addition, CNN will be monitoring the Web sites of the Secretaries of State offices to help analyze the outcome of early voting and absentee voting. “

  31. Now both NYT and the Commonwealth have Webb ahead.

    J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
    G F Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%

  32. Webb is now in the lead:

    12:26 AM Wednesday, November 8, 2006

    Precincts Reporting: 2425 of 2443 (99.26%)

    J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%

    G F Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%

    G G Parker Independent Green 25,719 1.11%

    Write Ins 2,294 0.10%

    Total: 2,323,715

  33. Still well within the authomatic recount requirement though (obviously).

  34. Hey, write-ins. I bet we know some of those guys 🙂

  35. Update: CNN reports that the Secretary of States numbers may be inverted…

  36. Paul, the previous numbers, or the new ones?

  37. Just ask Christine Gregoire in WA. She demanded three recounts (magically finding new uncounted ballots each time) until she wins the governorship by less than a thousand votes, then stops. The whole thing stank to high heaven.

    Yeah, but Rossi was a jackass, so it’s not that bad.

  38. MSNBC reports 33,000 uncounted votes in Fairfax county.

  39. Looks like Missouri’s gotten interesting

    Missouri Senate
    Updated: 12:40 a.m. ET

    Democratic McCaskill
    754,879
    Republican Talent
    (Incumbent)
    753,698

  40. TN is over, MT looks over, and VA won’t be over for days at least – Missouri is now the one to follow. McCaskill is catching up and it looks like she’ll continue to do so as urban precincts report.

  41. The official MO page has Talent (R) up by 3% with about 70% of precincts reporting (and still predominantly urban precincts yet to report, including essentially all of KC and some of STL). Incidentally, the libertarian candidate has about 2.5% of the vote. This one could potentially be just as close as VA.

  42. Lost in translation:

    I slammed that post in literally as I heard it on CNN- so that was uttered literally seconds before the timestamp on my post. My understanding is that the narrow lead attributed to Webb may not be true. But these were CNN Blitzer and co rumours flying around the screen. We know how that goes.

  43. man the next few days are going to test the new reason server when the recounts start in virginia, especially if mcCaskill wins.

    Well here’s to paying more taxes. Cheers.

  44. Anyway, Bush is now officially a lame duck.

  45. Paul,

    Ok, well we’ll find out who’s lawyers can dig up the most votes in the following few days.

    Its fun that the most contested district is literally steps away from all the DC political punditry. We’ll all hate virginia before its all over.

  46. zeno,

    I just wish Bush was roast duck, preferably stuffed, with hollandaise sauce.

  47. Another update at the MO govt page now has 75% reporting with Talent ahead by 2.6% and closing.

    http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?eid=189

    Also, St. Louis Cardinals rule!!!

  48. McCaskill is ahead according to MSNBC.

  49. CNN now was McCaskill ahead by 14000 (49-48) with 80% reporting… Things seem to be falling the Dems way in the Senate after all, but yeah, not before a long battle of recounts in VA.

  50. Heh. Best comment over at Tradesports regarding the GOP meltdown, “Cheney needs to shoot someone.”

  51. man the next few days are going to test the new reason server when the recounts start in virginia,

    Man, hasn’t it been nice to just post stuff, right away when you think of it, and have it appear….right away? I repeat my appreciation and thanks for the upgrades….they were very timely, guys.

  52. CBS is calling MO for McCaskill. So it is down to just Montana and Virginia.

  53. Brain Courts,

    McCaskill has ~25,000 vote lead now.

    ___________________________

    Virginia:

    01:56 AM Wednesday, November 8, 2006

    Precincts Reporting: 2433 of 2443 (99.59%)

    J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,162,004 49.50%

    G F Allen Republican 1,157,259 49.30%

    G G Parker Independent Green 25,968 1.11%

    Write Ins 2,310 0.10%

    Total: 2,347,541

  54. STL radio is currently broadcasting McCaskill’s victory speech, although as far as I know Talent hasn’t conceded anything. McCaskill’s up by about 1.5% with close to 90% reporting, and I think the remainders are still predominantly urban. She’ll definitely end up ahead, and maybe far enough ahead that Talent won’t mess with a recount.

    So if that holds and MT holds, the recount in VA will decide if the dems control the senate as well as the house.

  55. Sparky,

    Well, Webb is now up by ~8,000.

  56. NBC is predicting a McCaskill win.

  57. And Talent has apparently conceded.

  58. Talent has conceded, Tester’s lead is holding, and CNN now shows Webb up by 12,000 votes. Divided government on the horizon…

  59. Ah, “divided government”… are there any more beautiful words in the English language?

  60. MSNBC says that Montana Gov. states that Senate election will be called soon.

  61. Webb’s up by almost 12,000 votes. A little more, and there’s no automatic recount. There’s little chance that Allen can make that up even if he does get a recount.

    McCaskill’s up by more than 40,000 and Missouri’s been called.

    Tester’s up by 7,000 but there’s a quarter of the state left to count.

  62. As we all know by now, the threshold in Virginia is 1%, not .5%. Or even 0.05%. Unless something dramatic happens with the absentee ballots, there will be a recount.

    “Just ask Christine Gregoire in WA. She demanded three recounts (magically finding new uncounted ballots each time)”

    Were there uncounted ballots, or not? The answer is yes, there were ballots that were cast that were not counted. How can you possibly complain about fixing that?

  63. joe,

    As I understand it, they can ask for a recount if it is under 1%; but they have to shell out money unless it is under 0.5% (it is only when it is under 0.5% that an automatic recount occurs). So the Allen camp has to aks itself whether it could make up gap represented by say a (and this is just a hypothetical) 0.67% lead by Webb. If the canvassing that they do doesn’t indicate that a dramatic shift will occur, thye may just concede instead of spending the money on a recount.

  64. Anyway, right now it looks like Webb has a steady lead of about 0.3%, so an automatic recount is the most likely outcome once the counting has ended.

  65. Thank you for the clarification, Zeno.

    Your standard screw-ups, like those in Washington state, are only going to get you a few hundred votes, maybe a couple thousand at the absolute most.

    There would have to be some serious irregularities for a recount to produce a net change of 12,000+ votes.

  66. joe,

    I would say that barring some very serious tabulation errors, etc. that Webb is the next Senator from Virginia. Anyway, according to the Virginia webpage I have been sourcing there are now four precincts left to report.

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