Don't Follow the Numbers


Today's vote is driving folks so crazy that some are actually making multiple predictions. Election Projection has taken a final look at the polls and has decided they are full of bad info.

The numbers say a 25-seat gain for Dems in the House, but EP doubles back to say that the Dems will pick up, at most, 18 seats. That number is in the 15 to 20 seat Dem gain sweet-spot for most projections this year.

But EP actually goes further to predict that the GOP will only lose 11 seats, and thus barely keep control of the House. Like I've argued, that outcome would not completely shock me, given the scatter-shot nature of the overall Democratic campaign. Let's just hope we do not have to wait until December to find out what really happened.