Time Won't Let Me

With apologies to The Outsiders this is a fascinating example of press plans running up against reality. Time magazine needs to have a presidential winner to put on its cover by 6 am Wednesday or a special election issue planned for Thursday is shot.

I suppose it is possible that at least an initial winner will be called by the nets via exit polling, but remember, Hawaii is in play. The could mean early AM EST at the earliest for a call.

Time's best bet? Exit poll data leaks out on the Net early, eventually prodding a net to make a call on the election as "everyone" already knows the outcome.

Comments

[Joe]

There ain't no Hawaii in play.

Kerry wins by at least 8 there.

Winner will be known tonight and Time will be just fine.

[SR]

Joe: "Winner will be known tonight and Time will be just fine."

Unless you live in Korea or further east, you're off a day.

[me]

Ladbrokes, boys, Ladbrokes. It's all about the Odds...
Not-daniel

[Jason Bourne]

Hawai'i was in play on October 20th; whether that poll was an anomaly can't be known. Since that poll, Kerry and Bush have dumped money into the local media markets for ads. Should be interesting to see what happens out there, though I am somewhat incredulous of a Bush victory in Hawai'i (just as I am about polls which indicate a Kerry victory in Colorado or Arizona).

[joe]

So, the GOP thought that the increase in population in sunbelt states that had traditionally gone Republican (and the decrease in population in Democratic rust belt states) would tilt the electoral map their way. But it turned out that the people moving into those sunbelt states were more likely to vote Democrat than the locals, making states like CO, NV, AZ, and NM swing states, whereas they used to be red states. That's about half the argument for The Emerging Democratic Majority.

But wait - what if the population loss in those rust belt states makes the more Republican? The whole population shift dynamic could turn out to be a wash, as Wisconsin, Minnestoa, Michigan et al start going Republican with some consistency, at the same time that the sunbelt is going more Democrat.

The other half of The Emerging Democratic Majority's theory is about "ideopolises" - urban areas in which new technologies and economies attract a cadre of educated, socially-liberal technocrats. Think Austin and Boulder. If rust belt cities like Cleveland and Detroit are revitalized in this manner, that blue shift could cancel out the effect of their states' "Creative Class" types fleeing for the sunbelt.

[Ironchef]

"So, the GOP thought that the increase in population in sunbelt states that had traditionally gone Republican (and the decrease in population in Democratic rust belt states) would tilt the electoral map their way. "

That's the first time I've heard of that.

[SR]

Ironchef, that wisdom was all over the place following the 2000 census. The reapportionment of the Electoral College meant that even if the percentages of the popular vote stayed the same, Bush would have increased his margin of victory in EVs by double digits, as I recall.

[bo derek]

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