Push Polls

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USA Today notes that in its final poll (done with CNN and Gallup) for the election season, Bush is up 49 percent to 47 percent over Kerry. However, when they throw in undecided votes and allocate those votes as going 9 out of 10 for the challenger (a historic trend), then things are dead even.

Details here. One curious tidbit buried in the various diagrams: The percentage of Americans who think invading Iraq was a mistake has dropped from its previous high and is at 44 percent (52 percent think it was "no mistake".) Whether than portends anything, who knows?

We'll find out tomorrow. Or by Wednesday morning. Or maybe in a couple of months. Here's hoping no longer than Wednesday afternoon.

Here's blast from Reason's past that may prove relevant: A debate between Richard Epstein and Mike Godwin over the Supreme Court's decision regarding Election 2000.

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  1. 9/10? The highest I heard was 5:1, with 2:1 or 3:1 more common.

    BTW, I saw 2 Badnarik signs on my way to work this morning. Good luck LP, a high Badnarik total can only be interpretted as conservatives registering their disgust with Bush, Feith et al.

  2. Here’s hoping we have a clean result one way or the other by Wednesday morning. Alas, my fear is that if it takes any longer than that it will be because of either a recount or an irregularity. And once there’s a recount, wherever it might be and whoever might be ahead, that will naturally produce lawsuits claiming irregularities. And then it will be a mess.

    I’m just glad that my precinct isn’t in a battleground state. I’ve been told that our county is not on anybody’s target list for legal scrutiny, not even for state or local races, so hopefully I’ll have a smooth day tomorrow. If I were running a precinct in, say, Ohio, there’d probably be 2 opposing teams of lawyers researching my background right now, just in case either side needs to smear me as an unfit poll worker in a legal challenge.

    If this does get screwed up, at least it won’t be my fault.

  3. The change in percentage of people who feel Iraq was a bad move may be partially due to Kerry’s softening the “wrong war” message and focusing on how to “win” in Iraq.

    Some anti-Iraq-war folks who are 100% for Kerry may be shifting–the more Kerry says that he can turn Iraq around, the more they have to buy into the war in the first place.

    If Kerry wins, it won’t be long before his cheerleaders will be spinning Iraq as a succcess. Just like Republicans who hated Clinton’s nation building adventures had to about face when their buy was doing it.

  4. Has a clear answer emerged yet about what happens if Colorado’s ballot initiative passes – will the EVs be divied up this time, or next time?

    If it’s close enough, there’s your lawsuit.

  5. 2000 set us up good and proper this time around. If the Chips fall right, I can see this one going on for years before an emporor is enthroned.

    I’m not only voting Libertarian, I’m running as one (against Congressman Vernon J. Ehlers, expected to win in a walk).

  6. Joe, the Colorado amendment is going down in flames, so it’s irrelevant.

  7. The 2000 Florida election was decided by a margin of less than a hundredth of one percent, out of all votes. It’s highly unlikely to have a margin that small in any election, but even more so in back-to-back elections.

    I’m confident we’ll know who the winner is by 11pm Eastern, one way or the other.

  8. kmw, I have no trouble believing that Republicans would be willing to challenge 2-4% of all the ballots cast in Ohio and Florida, if that’s what they need to do to put Bush over the top.

  9. I have no trouble believing that Bush would convert to Islam tomorrow if he thought it would win him Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida.

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