Recall Notice

This Christian Science Monitor piece makes the obvious but oft overlooked point that as a very special election, we really have no idea who is going to bother to vote in Cali's recall. Who is a likely voter? Someone who voted in the last recall featuring 87 candidates in a circus atmosphere?

My own personal sampling -- plus or minus one billion points -- says that voters are ashamed to tell pollsters they are going to vote for the Terminator, thus greatly understating his true support.

Comments

[thoreau]

There's only one way to stop the Arnold juggernaut among young male voters: Larry Flynt must make a last minute appeal for support. Flynt could yet undercut Arnold's support among young stupid men. (And yes, I voted for Flynt.)

[boifromtroy]

Actually, in polls (Stanford and Survey USA) that do not use human interviewers, Arnold sees about a 12-15% bump, which tells me your instincts may well be true.

[Joe Dokes]

People outside California cannot possibly know just how much Davis is disliked. He has managed to irritate vitually every constiuency in the state. Perhaps with the exception of Indian Gaming.

The article posted yesterday hit the nail on the head.

I like how liberals frequently decry the lack of voter participation, yet when a candidate like Arnold comes along and energizes a typically non-voting segment of the population, they suddently become interested in having only "educated" voters turn out. (In these instances educated means, liberal)

A buddy of mine exemplifies the dislike of Davis. He is an aging hippie, school teacher, pot smoker, and Democrat, yet he voted absentee for Arnold.

Regards

Joe

[Zathras]

Just for the record, I am not a liberal, have never thought dragging ignorant, apathetic people to the polls was a good idea no matter who they voted for, and am still not entirely clear what makes Schwarzenegger a conservative -- apart from the fact that an administration he led would be likely to provide jobs to lots of Republican campaign operatives.

[Steve]

Zathras,

Do you really think not following politics makes you a moron?

[nm156]

Steve: Not following what is going on in the political landscape DOES make you a moron. For good or ill these people affect your life every damn day. Best to keep a weather eye on 'em before they forget who the master is.

[Chris]

Anybody who unbiasedly watched the Cali debate on FNC can tell you that his stance on issues is not gonna get him into office. His movies and the state's sudden hatred for Davis might.

[Andy]

Tradesports.com has had Arnold in the lead all along, and now they're giving him a huge lead (he's around 75% chance of winning). So make room for the Terminator.

[Zathras]

It sure looks as if pumping up the moron vote -- maximizing turnout among younger, mostly male voters who don't follow government or politics that much but will get excited about voting for a celebrity -- is central to the Schwarzenegger campaign's strategy. Staying away from unscripted appearances and interviews with reporters from outside the entertainment industry is consistent with this, since the voters Schwarzenegger is counting on are eager to analyze his performance or understanding of issues, and probably don't read many newspapers. As a bonus, local news coverage of state government is traditionally limited in California, further reducing the opportunity for critical commentary.

I think Jeff Taylor is exactly right: published polls understate Schwarzenegger's strength, just as they did Jesse The Body Ventura's in the 1998 Minnesota governor's race. If that is true, he will win next month, and may win easily, even if McClintock stays in the race.