This Christian Science Monitor piece makes the obvious but oft overlooked point that as a very special election, we really have no idea who is going to bother to vote in Cali's recall. Who is a likely voter? Someone who voted in the last recall featuring 87 candidates in a circus atmosphere?
My own personal sampling—plus or minus one billion points—says that voters are ashamed to tell pollsters they are going to vote for the Terminator, thus greatly understating his true support.
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