Bush's Winning Streak
At 8 p.m. Eastern time, President George W. Bush takes to the air waves from Cincinnati's Union Terminal to make the case for congressional authorization of military action against Iraq. Given that the terminal, rehabbed a dozen years ago into a popular museum complex, still houses Porkopolis's Amtrak depot, the setting for tonight's talk sends the wrong message about the efficacy and sagacity of government action. Yet as President Bush readies himself to deliver one of the very most momentous speeches of his presidency, at least two things are worth pondering.
First, although Bush came to office under circumstances stormier than Hurricane Lili, even his harshest critics now recognize that the former governor and selectively amnesiac drunk driver is nothing short of a master politician. Perhaps the best early indication of this—other than the legal and public-opinion thicket he navigated to take office in the first place—was his phenomenally successful passing of a reputedly "impossible" tax cut in 2001.
More recently, his speech to the U.N. on Iraq was widely, and rightly, seen as rhetorically brilliant, in that it used that group's own rationale as a predicate for action against Iraq. In a similar turn, Bush's resolution uses language essentially approved by Democratic senators back in 1998. It may not take an Einstein to make Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) look like a horse's ass, but it does take a savvy politician to do so with such brutal efficiency. No wonder that even The Nation, which won't have a good thing to say about the 43rd president until after he's been dead and buried for a decade, has removed its hoo-larious parody of Bush as Alfred E. Neuman from its home page.
Second, there is virtually nothing Bush can say tonight that will alter the views of most of his supporters and detractors. Part of this is because both camps are well-ensconced in their positions and it's unlikely that Bush will reveal any new evidence that might resolve lingering questions about Iraq's ties to 9/11 and Al Qaeda. (If such links were proven, all but the most pacifistic doves would agree that military action against Iraq would be warranted.) Part of this is because Bush, fearing the difficult "Why now?" query, is unlikely to sever the warrant for invading Iraq from 9/11 (even though arguments that might win additional supporters have been made along these lines; see here and here, for instance).
Bush has managed to put Iraq at the center of the national agenda as the fall elections loom larger. There was nothing inevitable or obvious about that in the wake of 9/11. (Indeed, as the CIA reported shortly after the attacks, there was no clear evidence linking Saddam Hussein to them.) He has even managed to bring most Americans along with him. As a new CBS/New York Times poll finds, two-thirds of Americans support military action against Iraq. That they do is a reflection of Bush's mastery of politics. But similar percentages also want to give weapons inspections more time, want the president to get a clear congressional mandate, and want Congress to ask more questions before signing on to war. It will be as much a testament to Bush's political skills if he follows the people on this one.
