VP Debate: Polls Find Mixed Results

As my co-panelist S.E. Cupp at theBlaze predicted yesterday, CNN’s vice presidential debate flash telephone poll concludes the debate was a draw. But a CBS News online poll of undecided voters found Biden the winner.

According to the CNN poll of 381 debate watchers, 48 percent of voters who watched the vice presidential debate thought Rep. Paul Ryan won, 44 percent thought Vice President Joe Biden won.  Ryan came across as more likeable by a margin of 53 percent to Biden’s 43 percent. Debate watchers also thought Ryan communicated more clearly, by a margin of 50 percent to 41 percent. Half of debate watchers said the debate did not impact their vote, 28 percent said they are now more likely to vote for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, 21 percent are more likely to vote for President Barack Obama. From this poll alone, it’s hard to say whether the debate merely reinforced viewers’ existing voting intentions, or actually impacted their votes. The CNN poll found equal numbers of Republican and Democratic debate watchers, unlike conventional polls which find more self-identified Democrats than Republicans. This difference in partisan composition may explain Ryan’s edge in the poll.

Perhaps more predictive of the debate’s actual impact is a CBS News poll of 431 undecided voters who watched the debate. Among them, 50 percent thought Biden won, 31 percent thought Ryan won. Eighty-five percent of these undecided debate-watchers thought Biden had a strong command of the issues, compared to 75 percent who thought so of Ryan. Before the debate 45 percent of undecided voters thought Ryan would be an effective president, 39 percent felt similarly about Biden. However, after the debate 56 percent thought Biden would be an effective president, while only 49 percent thought the same of Ryan. 

The two polls differ in sample selection, which impact the external validity of their results. The CNN poll interviewed respondents who on a previous national telephone poll said they planned to watch the vice presidential debate and agreed to a follow up interview. The CBS Poll interviewed respondents CBS previously asked to watch the debate, from a probability-based online panel. So arguably, not all the CBS poll watchers would have watched the debate without the prompting. Consequently, the CBS poll demonstrates what a representative sample of undecided voters would think of the debate had they chosen to watch, but not necessarily of the debate’s actual impact among those who chose to watch the debate.

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  • Tim||

    Has the VP debate ever mattered in the end?

  • ||

    I think the Palin/Biden debate in 2008 could have mattered if Palin had pulled off a miracle performance.

    Lots of people watched that debate.

    Anyway the short answer is no.

  • John||

    She did pretty well. But how bizarre was that election when the VP candidate could have had that much effect? I swear half the country thinks she was the Presidential Candidate. Shows was a pathetic candidate McCain was.

  • Juice||

    She was so stupid and laughable that she was easily used as a club with which to repeatedly bash McCain. That coupled with the fact that so many redneck retards loved her is why she had so much effect on the election.

  • John||

    Needs more Christfag.

  • Mumu Bobby||

    And I thought it was Biden that thought Hezbollah left Lebanon but they came back because........who can explain Biden's brain?

    It hardly matters. Biden is a harmless, stupid old coot. He doesn't know he's doing wrong anymore than my dog does when he poops in the house. I whack him with a newspaper but he doesn't get it. I'm talking about Biden.

  • DemosTheKnees||

    LEAVE SARAH PALIN ALONE!!

  • Scotticus Finch||

    Eighty-five percent of these undecided debate-watchers thought Biden had a stronger command of the issues, compared to 75 percent who thought so of Ryan.

    Unless you inadvertently added that "er" to "strong", I don't see how this makes mathematical sense.

  • John||

    It is Lake Woebegone. 100% are above the mean.

  • Auric Demonocles||

    Yeah, I noticed the same.

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    Undecided voters give 160%.

  • Delroy||

    maths iz hard

  • ||

    Eighty-five percent of these undecided debate-watchers thought Biden had a stronger command of the issues, compared to 75 percent who thought so of Ryan.

    what did the other 160% think?

  • ||

    after the debate Biden pulled ahead 56 percent to Ryan’s 49 percent.

    Also what did the other 105% think?

  • ||

    No shit. This RR poll results get wackier with each report.

  • Heroic Mulatto||

    OT: Dogs Doing It Human Style!

    More more interesting and informative than any Presidential or Vice-Presidential debate.

  • John||

    I happened to see a Tim Kaine, the Dem running for VA Senate, ad last night. Two things about it stood out. First, there was no indication whatsoever what party he was from. If you didn't follow politics, which most people don't, you were likely to think he was a Republican. Second, the ad brags about how Kaine worked with George W. Bush. I am not kidding.

    If that is what the Kaine people think will win him the Senate seat, hard to imagine that Obama has a prayer of winning the state.

  • NoVAHockey||

    The Dems sometimes think that NoVA is deep blue. and parts of it are. but not the whole thing. they have to run up the score to win statewide. I don't see that happening. Obama will carry Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria. but not 60-40 like he did in 2008. and if the rumors I've heard that the african-american churches in Richmond are not going to fire up the turnout machine are true?

  • Anomalous||

    It must suck to live in Virginia knowing that either Tim Kaine or George Allen will be representing you in the Senate.

  • NoVAHockey||

    I was redistricted from Jim Moran to Gerry Connolly. So it can get worse.

  • Virginian||

    Him and Mark Warner are masters of this. Total fucking masters. Their ads will mention their strong support of gun rights, their "support" of low taxes, and Warner goes on and on about his "business" background.

    I actually asked little Timmy about 18 months ago if he was going to run for Senate. He said no. So he's a liar too. Big shock, that.

  • John||

    The bottom line is that Ryan came across as a credible alternative. That is all he had to do.

  • ||

    So arguably, not all the CBS poll watchers would have watched the debate without the prompting. Consequently, the CBS poll demonstrates what a representative sample of undecided voters would think of the debate had they chosen to watch, but not necessarily of the debate’s actual impact among those who chose to watch the debate.

    So for poeple who actually watched the debate thought Ryan won and hypothetical people who would have watched the debate if forced too thought Biden won.

    ...

    Brilliant!!!

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    That's what that meant? I was trying to figure that out.

  • R C Dean||

    Try "people who give as hit thought Ryan won, people who don't broke for Biden".

  • AuH2O||

    Judging from my reading of Jezebel, Biden had a "base" debate. They wanted to see him call a Repulican a liar, to laugh at the ridiculousness of existing as a Republican, etc. But people accepted Dan effing Quayle as the VP, so it doesn't mean much.

    On the other hand, I want whatever drug Jez is on to conclude that Ryan was the smug one:

    Last night, Paul Ryan got schooled by a statesman older, wiser, and savvier than him. He was the know-it-all President of the College Republicans contesting his grade with the head of the Political Science Department. It was an aging basketball star refusing to let his cocky middle school son win a one-on-one game. It was that time when I was in 6th grade when I challenged my grandpa, who had been a formidable hockey player in his day, to a race on skates. He kicked my ass.

    Anyway, Paul Ryan made this face a lot. Like a Fraggle who has failed to learn the lessons of sharing.

    Also, this debate actually mattered, because they talked about abortion, and at least one comment openly admitted that was all she really cares deeply about because she isn't an economist or general and therefore can't judge on those things:

    http://jezebel.com/5951246/10-.....t=53461680

  • AuH2O||

    Other takeaways:

    Martha Raddatz has given the template to any debate moderator who wants to get into DC cocktail parties, unlike that traitor Leher.

    "Mansplaining" Paul Ryan is apparently the funniest tumblr ever .

    I would warn you about clicking it, but you should know that already.

    Is it worth it to check Daily Kos to see this same shit repackeged, BTW? Jez and Kos are my kind of two go-tos for "What did the intellectually dishonest far left think about X". Glenn Greenwald is my man for "intellectually honest far left"

  • John||

    And then it is repackaged and posted on here by Tony and Shreek. My God they are obedient little shits. They all get the same talking points from their masters every day. No one ever questions or thinks about it.

  • AuH2O||

    I don't think its obedience. Its a groupthink narrative that has emerged. The only reason why big government leftism isn't ascendent in this country is because the big, evil, meanies on the right lie and use racism and stupid regressive cultural issues to trick people into voting against their own economic well being. If the left only had the guts to argue more forcefully, assert themselves as the reality based ones and slap down those big meanies at every chance they get while passionately arguing for bigger and more expansive government, leftists would win.

    They actually fucking believe that, because it is easier to swallow than that they lost because the ideology might be wrong or not as amazing as they believe it to be.

  • ||

    I don't think its obedience. Its a groupthink narrative that has emerged. The only reason why big small government leftism libertarianism isn't ascendent in this country is because the big, evil, meanies on the right and left lie and use racism and stupid regressive cultural issues and faulty economic arguments to trick people into voting against their own economic well being. If the left libertarians only had the guts to argue more forcefully, assert themselves as the reality based ones and slap down those big meanies at every chance they get while passionately arguing for bigger and more expansive smaller and less intrusive government, leftists libertarians would win.

    Shit.

  • NoVAHockey||

    Saw this over at Daily Beast

    I watched the proceedings on a big screen together with 250 listeners from the Seattle flagship station for my radio show. In the discussion afterward, one of the women present said that Biden made her cringe by reminding her precisely of her abusive ex-husband. Another 23-year-old came up to me afterward and emphatically agreed, saying she had just left her own abusive relationship and that watching Biden’s antics gave her the creeps in the same way that her former boyfriend’s dismissive snickering always made her feel inadequate.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/a.....n-him.html

  • John||

    Someone, I forget who, said Biden was an example of why women don't like to argue with men. I honestly don't see how his performance did anything but turn off everyone but the hard left.

  • flye||

    Huh. Someone else mentioned that Biden partly reminded of Dennis Hopper's character in Blue Velvet, so that makes sense. Don't you fucking look at me!!!

  • Tulpa (LAOL-PA)||

    Mommy loves you.

  • ||

    First of all, fuck Michael Medved. Second, this is a bit odd:

    Why, then, did he decide to snicker, chuckle, grin, smirk and shake his head at the one GOP nominee for national office in the last 50 years that even partisan Democrats acknowledge as a serious, substantive, and formidable guy?

    I'm pretty sure they thought that about Dick Chicanery at the very least.

  • John||

    There is nothing more smug than Ryan confronting Biden with all of his little bourgeois facts. Didn't you see that, you racist tea bagging monster.

  • R C Dean||

    Needs more ratfucking.

  • mr simple||

    Paul Ryan's adorable story of how his daughter's ultrasound looked like a little bean was totally stolen from Kurt Cobain and Courtney Love.

    Because Cobain was the first person ever to remark that a young fetus looks like a bean and everyone is that obsessed with him that they know this story. She really had a tough time coming up with ten good points.

  • ||

    Wait, you mean *I* wasn't the first person to think of that?!

  • The Immaculate Trouser||

    Amazing that anyone could walk away from that debate thinking, "Gee, that Joe Biden sure knows about stuff!"

  • KPres||

    Independents, as a group, have an IQ about 10 points lower than committed Dems or Reps. That's fact, too, not hyperbole.

  • ||

    So the people in the CBS poll were pissed off at CBS'es rudeness in demanding they watch the debate, and therefore related to Biden's anger more.

  • ||

    Amazing that anyone could walk away from that debate thinking, "Gee, that Joe Biden sure knows about stuff!"

    I think "Biden was not as big a fool as usual" was the bar he had to clear with lefties. Apparently he did that, though I didn't watch the debate, since about 5 seconds of listening to a politician bloviate is my limit.

    Plus, I don't own a TV. Saw said 5 seconds in the men's locker room at the YMCA.

  • wareagle||

    the one thing you missed was Biden's bumbling explanation re: security in Libya. He either lied about knowing of requests for more of it or actually did not know of those requests. Liar or stupid; which is more important in a VP?

  • free2booze||

    He shouldn't have known about the requests. That's the State Departments responsibility. Where this admin screwed up, was by not rolling Hillary under the bus as soon as people starting asking "what if it wasn't because of a video"? The moment O and Joe decided not to hold anyone at State responsible, the pile of shit became their pile of shit.

  • free2booze||

    Let me correct that. He shouldn't have known about the requests prior to the attack. Afterwards, the White House should have done their own digging, at which point they should have learned about the requests, before assigning fall guys.

  • BlogimiDei||

    Read the 25 most hilarious tweets at ABC.com and giggled myself to death over this one:
    “Joe Biden’s teeth are so white they are voting for Romney!”

  • pmains||

    I'm a very poor judge of who won these things. I always think the Democrat is a socialist jackass, so the Republican wins in my mind by not punching babies in the audience.

    That said, I couldn't believe the Luntz group woman who thought that Biden won by interrupting. "That's how you win debates!" Really? What if he'd made armpit noises while Ryan was speaking? Would that have been a win in this woman's mind?

    But this woman is the type of person who will decide the election. So, actually, yes, Biden likely did "win." Hence the CBS stupid undecided voters poll.

  • YinxDoo||

    Seems like a solid plan to me dude.

    www.UA-Anon.tk

  • DemosTheKnees||

    Ryan won on FOX News. And that's strange, because Biden won on MSNBC. I think there might be political bias in the marketplace of ideas.

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