Proposition 19 Falling

Some uh-oh news from the latest Prop 19 polling from the Public Policy Institute of California:

Today, 44 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Proposition 19—the measure that would legalize marijuana—while 49 percent plan to vote against it, with 7 percent undecided. This is an 8-point drop in support since September (52% yes, 41% no, 7% undecided). Support has declined among Democrats (56% today, 63% September), dropped sharply among independents (40% today, 65% September), and remains low among Republicans (30% today, 32% September). Support has declined across nearly all demographic groups, most strikingly among Latinos (42% today, 63% September). Most likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 19 is important (52% very important, 28% somewhat important). Those planning to vote no are more likely to consider the outcome very important (67%) than those planning to vote yes (40%).

And that's a big goddamnit. I agree with the words of a long-time pot law reform activist said to me yesterday, that at this point we are no longer talking about if, we are just talking about how and when, when it comes to adult legalization of the weed; but I sure wish the conversation would come to a conclusion quicker than it now looks like it might. Link via Alan Bock at the Orange Punch blog.

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  • ||

    Brian, as with political races, polls just cannot be trusted; all they do is get you worked up as they swing this way and that (which is partly what they are for). All you can do is wait and see.

  • Ballpunch||

    If the poll was conducted before noon, odds are most of the truly dedicated voters were still face-down in their pillows.

  • Hobie Hanson||

    It's one thing to say you support something two months before the election, just because you're frustrated with the fact that government isn't doing as much as you would like to solve a problem.

    But when you get closer to the election, you start thinking about the consequences of what you're about to vote for, and with the advice of seasoned professionals who deal with drugs and their consequences every day (DEA commissioners, state attorneys general, drug czars), your knee jerk reaction subsides, and you realize now is not the time for temper tantrums.

    It's not surprising that this mature characteristic is stronger among Democrats.

  • Cytotoxic||

    Mature = authoritarian and respressive. That is your newspeak lesson for today kids.

  • Hobie Hanson||

    When you get older, you'll understand it was for your own good.

  • ||

    I decide what is good for me, others decide what is good for them.. I don't want the whim of a majority deciding what is good for me. It's a shame our politicians don't touch these real issues because it would be politically unpopular.

    It's for no one's good that cannabis is illegal/decriminalized -- not for children, not for adults.

    I suppose you were lucky you never got busted for using a plant & your life ruined.

  • C. Zondpro||

    the advice of seasoned professionals who deal with drugs and their consequences every day (DEA commissioners, state attorneys general, drug czars)

    My advice is: Let me keep my job.

  • ||

    SHUT UP DANNY DEVITO

  • Publius||

    Hobie, you are a cartoon character in the new "Reefer Stick Madness" animated scare video. Oh, golly, Mabel Pirimpimpina, I'm sure glad we have some adults in the room!

  • ||

    DEA commissioners, state attorneys general, drug czars

    Always great sources for drug policy wisdom.

  • cynical||

    You know, I found that to be kind of entertaining. Thanks!

  • ||

    It's not surprising that this mature characteristic is stronger among Democrats.

    Fuck you Highnumber and the puppet you road in on.

  • Juice||

    Successful troll is successful.

  • Publius Potulus||

    What with AG Holder salivating at the thought of pot prosecutions; the Obama Administration actively campaigning against 19; California Sheriffs threatening to crack down even if 19 passed; and all the left-wing rags coming out against 19; not to mention Honorable Senator Feinstein's stated opposition; what could you expect? The lone, right-leaning Orange County Register is leaning in favor.

    In defiance of the majority, Publius voted YES.

  • Reina de la Hoja||

    Any adult who likes to partake in the weed can see who is NOT on her side.

  • Virginia||

    only delaying the inevitable.

  • ||

    What lesson may we take away from this?

    Voter intimidation (as carried out by government officials) works!

  • Zeb||

    That is the most ugly thing about this whole thing. A government official (who is not a legislator) propagandizing (and telling straight up lies) for or against any particular legislation as part of his official duties should be considered equal to treason.

  • smeghead||

    Well, that was the kick in the nuts that I did not need today.

  • Colin||

    As John Stossel has said, the most important indicator is Intratrade, and there 19 is supposedly doing well.

    And even if it fails, there will be another election. All we need do is win once.

  • Surly Chef||

    Intrade is giving me hope.

    Has The OC Register come out in support of prop 19 yet?

  • Maybe||

    All I could find on the OC Reg site was a blog post by Alan Bock, in favor. Today.

  • ||

    which might explain:

    Those planning to vote no are more likely to consider the outcome very important (67%) than those planning to vote yes (40%).

  • ||

    Yeah, just like with sports, where Vegas is a far better predictor than any sportswriter or expert out there. But shit. I wonder where the Intrade number will go in reaction to this.

  • Tony||

    You know what's a big fat piece of irony? One of the biggest original forces behind cannabis prohibition was the petroleum industry, which, for some reason, libertarians spend their days whoring for. Pot smoking hippies know what's what, you guys are too conflicted to be of any use.

  • ||

    Gosh, the irony.

  • Bullshit Tony on Hemp||

    Tony, you're an arrogant ass with an irrational thought process -- pot competes with gasoline? -- whoring libertarians? Are you with Sheriff Crackdown Baca or The Orange County Register? Your world is askew.

  • ||

    Actually, he is right. Henry Ford's 1st car was practically made from HEMP and ran on fuel produced from HEMP which is clean burning and doesn't cause all of the pollution that the petroleum based fuels do. Also the timber industries had a big role in the prohibition of marijuana. If the people of Cali and the rest of the United States would just open their eyes and their minds...they would see that this could have a huge positive economic impact! Not just because people should be able to get high if they want, but because there are so many more uses for the HEMP plant than just the smoking aspect.

    I think it should be a matter of choice. I mean, people die from obesity, but they haven't out-lawed Big Macs or Whoppers have they? I am not even from Cali and I hope it passes! I want the rest of the country to watch Cali grow, prosper and flourish and wish they had jumped on the bandwagon, too! YES ON PROP 19! They can't arrest everybody! It's time to stand up for ourselves AMERICA and take our country back!

    YES ON PROP 19

  • ||

    He's right about what? That the supposed libertarian "whoring" for oil companies (WTF?) has anything to do at all with Prop 19 or its popular support? No, he isn't right.

  • ||

    No, the Hemp and petroleum thing.

  • ||

    That's the only thing he was right about. All of the rest of his stamement was pure crap.

  • Tony||

    reason and other 'libertarian' outfits are bought and paid for, in large part, by the petroleum industry. Libertarians, god knows why, come up with all sorts of excuses to defend the industrial status quo, which heavily favors oil of course, including lots of government subsidies--which could be said to include the prohibition on hemp products. I've consistently said libertarians should whore less for such a heavily subsidized industry, but they keep doing it, going so far as to be science deniers for the cause.

  • ||

    god knows why

    Oh you didn't know? All self-proclaimed libertarians personally benefit from oil company profits. It's a little deal we all worked out, and it's working pretty damn well if I do say so myself. Now I'm off to use my deep glibertarian pockets to crush the little guy.

  • ||

    Now I'm off to use my deep glibertarian pockets to crush the little guy.

    Like big fake boobs crushing beer cans.

  • ||

    ....huh?

  • Zeb||

    Who's whoring for what now?
    How can you comment here every day and still not understand what libertarianism is?

  • Joe Riley||

    Polling is inaccurate, especially after elections have started. It's going to pass, it has a LOT of endorsements.

  • Wind Rider||

    Way to fucking trash my morning buzz. Thanks, Brian. Looks like I'll have to start all over again. Thanks, Brian!

  • Head of Lettuce||

    Usually it's Balko that ruins my day.

  • ||

    Very true, I would add the proposition that anything over 40% will put this into permanent mainstream debate.

  • Bingo||

    I'm trying to think of another state besides CA where this issue could possibly make a beach head. Is Does Montana still have enough knee-jerk anti-authoritarianism for something like this to get traction?

  • ||

    Colorado? Nevada? Oregon? Washington? Maine?

    Plenty of fertile ground over the next several years for sure.

  • Danno||

    Good job, sheeple of California! Once again, the politicians and media tell you how to think, and you fall right in line. Bravo, you pathetic imbeciles!

  • ||

    Is that you Dano? From the comments of Environmental Economics?

    So how is California treating you?

    I can't say Washington misses you.

    Anyway I am glad you hold at least one political belief that is not repulsive to me....but you should drop the "sheeple" complaint for all your political failures.

    Changing the world takes time. pot will be legal...it might not happen in 2 weeks but it will happen.

  • ||

    The astonishing thing, which I will have to ponder, is how the quasi-tolerance of pot in CA somehow created opposition to full legalization from those benefiting from quasi-toleration. Like that idiot pot growers union that came out in opposition.

    It might actually be easier to go from full prohibition to full repeal, rather than go through a series of incremental steps, each creating its only little crowd of entrenched rentseekers.

  • robc||

    It might actually be easier to go from full prohibition to full repeal, rather than go through a series of incremental steps, each creating its only little crowd of entrenched rentseekers.

    Duh. This is true across the board. Applies to government spending too. Incrementalism only works in one direction.

  • ||

    Fuckity-fuck-fuck. What the hell is up with the huge drop in independent support?

  • Rick ||

    If accurate, the poll shows the danger of using a popular vote for something like this.

  • ||

    That would be a good point if there were any hope whatsoever of repealing cannabis prohibition anywhere in the US via more traditional legislative routes. There isn't.

  • ||

    DENISE|10.21.10 @ 12:56PM|#
    Our Constitution was written on HEMP paper! Our first flag was made from HEMP fabric! As a colonist, you were required to grow HEMP! It was, and probably still is, our number one cash crop! Our whole country was basically grown from HEMP! Henry Ford's 1st car was practically made from HEMP and ran on fuel produced from HEMP which is clean burning and doesn't cause all of the pollution that the petroleum based fuels do. Also the timber industries had a big role in the prohibition of marijuana. If the people of Cali and the rest of the United States would just open their eyes and their minds...they would see that this could have a huge positive economic impact! Not just because people should be able to get high if they want, but because there are so many more uses for the HEMP plant than just the smoking aspect.

    I think it should be a matter of choice. I mean, people die from obesity, but they haven't out-lawed Big Macs or Whoppers have they? I am not even from Cali and I hope it passes! I want the rest of the country to watch Cali grow, prosper and flourish and wish they had jumped on the bandwagon, too! YES ON PROP 19! They can't arrest everybody! It's time to stand up for ourselves AMERICA and take our country back! The politicians, are in the pockets of Big Pharmacy and they don't want it legalized! How long will we let the government run our country into the ground before we have finally had enough? Don't believe me, check it for yourself! Do your research before you just say no!
    http://www.hempmuseum.org/SUBROOMS/HEMP HISTORY EARLY U.S..htm

    YES ON PROP 19

  • Zeb||

    You don't need to convince us (except for one or two retarded trolls). Stop repeating yourself.

  • ||

    Sorry, didn't meaqn to pepeat all of that, I had just added some new stuff and a website for all the non-believers to check out. Not that their monds will be open enough to allow any knowledge in.

  • ||

    I'd say we're the non-believers, and the prohibitionists are the ones acting on faith.

  • Daniel||

    I don't care if it passes. Either way, since I'm a true American, I will continue my peaceful (and open) use of canibus, right up to the point your government takes away my freedom.

  • ||

    AMEN, BROTHER!

  • ||

    I saw this this morning and my response was, "FUCK!"

    But we will just have wait and see. I think that there are 3 other states with marijuana related issues on the ballot. Let's say, arguendo, they pass but Prop 19 fails. To me this would still be considered progress in the right direction.

  • ||

    Let's just wait and see how the vote comes out.

    I don't smoke pot, and I don't intend to but I voted yes on 19, and I hope enough others did to change the CA constitution.

  • martin||

    This news makes me sad.

  • ||

    SurveyUSA give Prop 19 a lead 48 to 44

  • ||

    This sucks. I think the support has dropped on the whole "we believe in legalization just not this bill" movement.

    Unfortunately, if it doesn't pass, I believe the Mexican War on Drugs will escalate. It's already threatening the borders but I think we'll see a full-on spillover.

    Now, I'm going to go drown my sorrows in a beer.

  • ||

    You should smoke a bowl instead.

  • SCJ||

    While I'm not losing hope that this still has a shot at passing, the latest polls are really disappointing, especially considering how consistently it's been polling at more than 50% over the last several months.

    There might be enough "uniquely motivated" voters who pollsters aren't reaching, meaning the polls might be a little misleading. But I'm not holding my breath.

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