Brian Doherty | May 31, 2007
Brink Lindsey (author of the great cover story in the July issue of reason, excerpted from his new book The Age of Abundance: How Prosperity Transformed American Life and Culture) questions economic statistics based on "real income," especially those that conclude that median real income has fallen in America since the 1970s. Such stats imply that we are somehow as a nation worse off since then. Lindsey attacks this idea on a couple of fronts. First, the effects of immigration on national income statistics:
The share of the total population born in foreign countries has jumped from 5 percent in 1974 to 12 percent in 2004. Relatedly, people of Hispanic origin have climbed from 5 percent of the population in 1974 to 14 percent in 2004.
The huge wave of Hispanic immigration over the past generation has been good for the immigrants and their families, and good for the country as a whole. But this big influx of relatively low-skilled immigrants has to have depressed median income compared to what it otherwise would have been. Unfortunately, I’m not aware of good studies that quantify the effect.
This is not saying that immigration is "hurting America," unless somehow you think macrostatistics are more important than actual improvements in everyone's circumstances. Assuming immigrants are doing better for themselves in income terms than they would have in their home countries, their presence in America can drag down the nation's median income stats without anyone actually being worse off.
But that's not all that's wrong with statistics seeming to show a worsening in overall American economic circumstances, Lindsey explains:
Do your best job of coming up with a deflator that takes care of changes in the price level, and calculate the dollar income in 1800 that is the “equivalent” of an income of $100,000 in 2007. Then try with a straight face to convince somebody that the earner in 1800 and the earner in 2007 are equal in terms of material well-being.
Now let’s go to the comparison that’s at the heart of the stagnating median incomes argument: incomes today and incomes in the early 1970s. Do what you want as far as adjusting for inflation, but there’s still the problem of all the goods that simply weren’t available back then: personal computers, the World Wide Web, cell phones, cable and satellite TV, DVDs and iPods, airbags, anti-lock brakes, automatic teller machines, aspertame, LASIK surgery, CAT-scans, home pregnancy test, and ibuprofen, just to name a few.
...........
I don’t see how anybody without an ideological axe to grind can maintain seriously that ordinary people in the ’70s had the same material well-being as their counterparts today — yet that’s the implication of saying that median real incomes have been stagnant.
W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm explored all the many improvements in American life that economic stats can miss back in reason's Aug./Sept. 2002 issue.
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This is not saying that immigration is "hurting America,"
unless somehow you think macrostatistics are more important than
actual improvements in everyone's circumstances.
1. Of course we had recently arrived immigrants prior to 1974
also.
and
2. Slightly better off than Mexico is still better off than Mexico
no matter how you slice it. If that is the standard.
It is a good point that technological advances have made life a
lot easier and our living standards higher independent of our
income.
The issue is not are Americans worse off than they were before the
influx of immigration. The issue is forgone well being. Are
Americans or some Americans worse off then they would have been had
their not been such a large influx of immigrants. Looked at that
way, no quesiton that lower skilled natives are worse off than they
would have otherwise been even if though their standard of living
may have increased. It didn't increase as much as it could
have.
The same goes for the country as a whole. Is the country better off
now that it was in the 1970s? Materially it certainly is. Would it
be even better off today had there not been such a huge influx of
immigrants? That is an interesting question that Lindsey doesn't
really address and involves more than just wages and money.
I remember reading about an interesting experiment along the same lines to show how deceptive "adjusting for inflation" can be. Subjects were given a 1950 (Sears) Catalog and this years. They were then asked which catalog they would like to buy from. Even though they could buy a new refrigerator for like $50 it was a 1950 refrigerator. Almost everyone chose to purchase the new goods at much higher prices.
Now let's go to the comparison that's at the heart of the
stagnating median incomes argument: incomes today and incomes in
the early 1970s. Do what you want as far as adjusting for
inflation, but there's still the problem of all the goods that
simply weren't available back then: personal computers, the World
Wide Web, cell phones, cable and satellite TV, DVDs and iPods,
airbags, anti-lock brakes, automatic teller machines, aspertame,
LASIK surgery, CAT-scans, home pregnancy test, and ibuprofen, just
to name a few.
I pointed this out to joe and he said i was mad...or an idiot or
both...i can't remember. maybe i am just forgetful...but happily
right about this.
If the median wage earners of today were forced to live like the median wage earners of even 1977, to say nothing of 1967 or 1957, they'd riot.
I highly doubt that, joshua, since I don't see anything remotely
objectionable in that statement. Maybe you're thinging of someone
else?
I view the problem of stagnating wages among middle- and working-
class people since the 1970s as a problem of social justice and the
related issue of economic inequality turning into political
inequality and inequality of opportunity - not as a problem in the
material living conditions of median income-earners.
Will Allen,
My grandfather was a pretty wealthy rancher when I was a kid in the
1970s. We used to gape in amazment about how he owned three color
TV sets and bought a new car every three years. This compared to my
decidedly middle class parents who drove used cars and had one
color TV set. Today, even the ghetto fabulous have flatscreens and
cellphones, things unheard of to the middle class just 20 years
ago.
"I view the problem of stagnating wages among middle- and
working- class people since the 1970s as a problem of social
justice and the related issue of economic inequality turning into
political inequality and inequality of opportunity - not as a
problem in the material living conditions of median
income-earners."
And your sollution to that problem of social justice is to import
millions of low skilled Mexicans reducing the value and wages of
the unskilled and lower classes? Wouldn't a better sollution be to
limit immigration so that there is a lower supply of low skilled
workers artifically raising their wages and standard of living?
joe,
What is the difference, as a practical matter, between middle class
and working class? Also, if they, too, are getting richer (in terms
of improving quality of life if not nominal wealth) over time, why
does it matter if the richer are getting even richer faster?
Finally, in what sense is income inequality "turning into"
political inequality or inequality of opportunity? What I mean is,
hasn't that always been the case? What makes right now any
different?
One thing folks today have that wasn't as available in the '70s is the financial assests aging parents. Intergenerational wealth transfer will keep everything afloat for a while.
...personal computers, the World Wide Web, cell phones,
cable and satellite TV, DVDs and iPods, airbags, anti-lock brakes,
automatic teller machines, aspertame, LASIK surgery, CAT-scans,
home pregnancy test, and ibuprofen, just to name a few.
I won't be satisfied until I have home LASIK surgery and an
automated Penn & Teller machine.
Warren | May 31, 2007, 12:48pm | #
I remember reading about an interesting experiment along the same
lines to show how deceptive "adjusting for inflation" can be.
Subjects were given a 1950 (Sears) Catalog and this years. They
were then asked which catalog they would like to buy from. Even
though they could buy a new refrigerator for like $50 it was a 1950
refrigerator. Almost everyone chose to purchase the new goods at
much higher prices.
Here's a couple of classic posts from Cafe Hayek on Sears and
inflation:
A
1975 Sears catalog
Working
for Sears goods
The issue is forgone well being. Are Americans or some Americans worse off then they would have been had their not been such a large influx of immigrants. Looked at that way, no quesiton that lower skilled natives are worse off than they would have otherwise been even if though their standard of living may have increased. It didn't increase as much as it could have.
And in a nation where Elementary and Secondary education is
effectively free to those "lower skilled" natives, who's fault is
that? Why should a blockade on labor be installed just to make the
"lower skilled native workers" wealthier at the expense of the more
skilled "middle class"?
The same goes for the country as a whole.
...
Would it be even better off today had there not been such a huge influx of immigrants?
I believe that it would actually be worse off without the immigrant
influx. If "lower skilled native workers" didn't have the
competition within the construction industry, particularly house
framing and roofing, I doubt so many McMansions would have been
built in the last 20 years. The cost/sqft of a house in
relationship to the average dollar earned has decreased rather
significantly in the last 50 years and I suspect a fair bit of that
is competition for wages within the laboring class of workers.
I read the other day about gas prices. If you adjust for both inflation and standard of living (meaning you look at the percentage of an average person's earnings it took to buy a gallon of gas), gasline today would have to cost $4.77 a gallon to cost the same as it did in the good old days 1960s.
John,
We don't "import" anyone. Please stop refering to immigrants as if
they are things.
My solutions have nothing to do with levels of immigration -
although the vulneratibility of undocumented immigrants to
exploitation is very likely part of the problem. Workers who can
bargain without their employers dangling imprisonment and
deportation for them and their families tend to command more on the
labor market.
As far as overall numbers of immigrantsl, their effect on wages and
employment of native-born workers doesn't seem to have been
definitively answered one way or the other.
D.A.,
"What is the difference, as a practical matter, between middle
class and working class?"
Middle class people make more money. With the old "blue
collar/white collar" paradign breaking down, "working class" has
pretty much become a synonymn for "lower middle class."
"Also, if they, too, are getting richer (in terms of improving
quality of life if not nominal wealth) over time, why does it
matter if the richer are getting even richer faster?" See my
previous comment.
"Finally, in what sense is income inequality "turning into"
political inequality or inequality of opportunity? What I mean is,
hasn't that always been the case? What makes right now any
different?"
I guess I could have used clearer language there. Read "turning
into" as "being converted into," like a currency transaction, not
"becoming," as in something new developing.
Yes, it has always been the case that wealth is converted into
political influence. That's why those of us who believe in
political equality tend to support efforts to promote economic
equality and equality of opportunity, and/or incorporate
protections into the political system itself which will either make
the "conversion" harder, or which boost the capacity of the
non-rich to influence the political system in order to provide a
check to the political power of the wealthy.
What is the difference, as a practical matter, between
middle class and working class?
I've always assumed working class was blue or pink color and middle
class was white colar.
And your sollution to that problem of social justice is to
import millions of low skilled Mexicans reducing the value and
wages of the unskilled and lower classes? Wouldn't a better
sollution be to limit immigration so that there is a lower supply
of low skilled workers artifically raising their wages and standard
of living?
Why? Economically, why would we limit labor mobility? Reducing the
supply of anything to increase its price isn't a common goal among
economic libertarians.
Ethically, what sound distinction can be made between an unskilled
random Mexican and an unskilled random American? Tribalism,
nationalism -- what should we call the impulse that leads rational
Americans to believe that denying immigrants a 300% increase in
income and a chance at survival is justified in order to grant
unskilled Americans a 15% increase in income and a chance to obtain
a discretionary good or service? I hesitate to use the phrase
"social justice," but surely your solution doesn't qualify: new
blenders for those lucky enough to be born in Dallas, starvation
for those born a couple hundred miles south, and let's just ignore
willingess to work, etc.
I think we should apply the same thinking to the tax
burder.
Sure, you're paying more in real dollars for your taxes. Sure,
you're paying more even in inflation-adjusted dollars for your
taxes.
But the amount you have left over can buy you all kinds of neat
stuff that didn't exist in 1960, so shaddap!
"And in a nation where Elementary and Secondary education is
effectively free to those "lower skilled" natives, who's fault is
that? Why should a blockade on labor be installed just to make the
"lower skilled native workers" wealthier at the expense of the more
skilled "middle class"?"
If you are an amoral corporate righest, then fuck them let the
immigrants in. My view is that not everyon can or wants to be an
office drone. Further, the government owes it's own citizens. It
owes the citizens of Mexico nothing, just like the government of
Mexico owes Americans nothing.
I will give you credit Kwix at least your honest enough to admit
the elitist vitrol behind the support for mass immigration. It
really is about screwing America's own underclass in the name of
getting cheap labor. Perhaps I really am a pinko commie leftist at
heart, but I don't see how having a perminant low paid underclass
that is constantly refreshed and enlarged by influxes of immigrants
from abroad is particularly good for the country.
"As far as overall numbers of immigrantsl, their effect on wages
and employment of native-born workers doesn't seem to have been
definitively answered one way or the other."
You can link to different studies and get different results
depending on which side of the issue the writter is shilling for.
That said, even the pro immigration folks agree that immigration
has a negative effect on wages of low skilled workers and high
school drop outs. It makes sense that it would. Immigration is not
an issue of overall well being or health of the economy. It is an
issue of what to do about those at the bottom that are most
effected by future immigration.
Further, the government owes it's own citizens.
Is that because you pay taxes or simply because you're a "citizen"?
If it's the later, I'm not accustomed to being owed anything by
virtue of being born, but that's how 95% of us become citizens. If
it's the former, then we shouldn't really care about immigrants as
long as we ensure that they pay taxes.
Just because you can buy cooler and better stuff now than you
could in 1974 doesn't change the fact that the median real income
trends have been, well, stagnant.
It ameliorates the impact, yes, but it does not explain the
stagnation.
In the 1947 - 1970 span average year over year growth in real
income was over 3%. Since 1971 it's been about 0.3%
Did new products suddenly become so much cooler and better in 1971?
Did Hispanic migration make a sudden noticeable impact on
previously rising real income levels then?
"Is that because you pay taxes or simply because you're a
"citizen"?"
Because you are a citizen. We have governments to provide for the
common good. If it was about paying taxes, the government would owe
nothing to the sick or indigent because they don't pay taxes. If
you think that the U.S. government should be concerned about people
who want to move here then please explain the duty other
governments owe to Americans. Or does it just go one way?
John,
"That said, even the pro immigration folks agree that immigration
has a negative effect on wages of low skilled workers and high
school drop outs."
12 million of those immigrants are undocumented. How many workers
is that, 5 million? 6 million?
I agree, under the status quo, immigration lowers the wages of the
lowest earners. Let's get rid of the actual "permanent underclass"
we have in this country - those people whose status makes it
impossible for them to rise in the world or even to operate a free
actor in the economy - by legalizing them.
That said, even the pro immigration folks agree that immigration
has a negative effect on wages of low the
lowest skilled workers and, i.e., high
school drop outs.
There. Fixed it.
If you think that the U.S. government should be concerned
about people who want to move here then please explain the duty
other governments owe to Americans. Or does it just go one
way?
I also support free migration in other countries. Mexico and other
countries ought to allow U.S. citizens to cross its border as
well.
I view the problem of stagnating wages among middle- and
working- class people since the 1970s as a problem of social
justice and the related issue of economic inequality turning into
political inequality and inequality of opportunity - not as a
problem in the material living conditions of median
income-earners.
Yup you missed it joe...again...Bill Gates cannot buy a better ipod
then an average consumer...ie middle and working class (what the
hell is the difference?) If you do not see social justice in the
equalizing effects of free markets and the goods and services they
provide then you are blind as a bat.
It is not just that the poor can buy cooler stuff now then they
could in the 50's it is that the stuff they can get now is the best
at any price. Bill gates can buy a $10,000 ipod but its utility
compared to a 100$ ipod would be exactly the same.
Measures in income differences DO NOT TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT!!!
joe,
Fair answers. I'm not accusing you personally, but the "working
class / middle class" distinction strikes me as bogus, carrying
some connotative baggage I don't think it merits. AI understand why
white collar / blue collar doesn't work, either (e.g., a county
librarian vs. a union plumber), but why not say lower-middle class
and be done with it?
If you are so unskilled that you can't compete with someone who has a third grade education and can't speak English, you may want to save some money and go to a vocational school.
If you are so unskilled that you can't compete with someone
who has a third grade education and can't speak English, you may
want to save some money and go to a vocational school.
Third grade education is a relative term...I went to collage and i
do not know how to frame a house or operate and fix the engine of a
d-6 cat...many immigrant workers i have run across do know how to
do those things.
Third grade education is a relative term...I went to collage
and i do not know how to frame a house or operate and fix the
engine of a d-6 cat...many immigrant workers i have run across do
know how to do those things.
Which is why you ought to do something else, right?
You mean the "better/worse off than other generations" standard is not a function of who was President? I knew Al and Hillary were trying to pull a fast one!
Which is why you ought to do something else,
right?
I don't know...I have driven a D-6 and I always liked shop....this
stuff is not degrading work and the people who do this work are not
unprivileged and unhappy or lacking in opportunity...hell many of
them end up buying land, making homes on that land and selling it
at a handy profit...just because joe sys so does not make it
so....this whole idea that there is a permanent underclass
incapable of ever achieving is complete and utter bullshit.
Another big piece of the puzzle (or pie, it works either way)
that a lot of these longitudinal studies of income miss is
benefits.
Ask any employer, and they will tell you that benefits account for
at least 1/3 of their cost for each full-time employee.
Treat benefits as compensation to the employee, and I think you'll
get some different results.
Oh, and joe's 1:37 comment has got to be a contender for Non
Sequitur of the Week.
Third grade education is a relative term...I went to
collage...
Which is why you ought to do something else right.
I think we should apply the same thinking to the tax
burder.
Sure, you're paying more in real dollars for your taxes. Sure,
you're paying more even in inflation-adjusted dollars for your
taxes.
But the amount you have left over can buy you all kinds of neat
stuff that didn't exist in 1960, so shaddap!
Did the government invent anti-lock brakes and the ipod before or
after Al Gore invented the internet?
I will give you credit Kwix at least your honest enough to admit the elitist vitrol behind the support for mass immigration. It really is about screwing America's own underclass in the name of getting cheap labor.
Aaah yes. John the ever so productive military lawyer whipping out
his tried and
true
"anti-intellectualism" and "anti-elitist" stance. Since you and I
have gone over this before I will spell it out in simple terms that
even you can understand.
I worked for over a decade in the food-service and construction
industres as a "low skilled", run of the mill laborer. Wait, let me
spell this out in detail so you can understand. I have been a
dishwasher, a cook, a dietary aide(cook's bitch), a handy-man, a
house painter, a computer cable installer, an air conditioning duct
worker, a pizza delivery-guy and a ditch digger. I have worked with
both native Americans and immigrants of both flavors of legality.
While your ass was sitting in law school, gaining its
Intellectualism-Elitist cred, mine was helping to build those
McMansions and I am damned proud of it and of the wages I earned
doing it.
I used those wages to increase my status, put myself through school
and got out of the industry into something more to my tastes. I got
tired of dealing with jobs that hired 10pt IQs and drunks, where
the only hard workers were the ones trying to better themselves,
like me and my newly arrived immigrant friends. I have no contempt
or "vitrol"(sic) for people in the "labor class". Indeed, I have
great respect for those who thrive in it. The guy who mows my lawn,
white, dumb as a sack of rocks. His boss on the other hand is a
smart immigrant from Guatemala, come over illegally and eventually
secured citizenship. I have great respect for the guy who leveraged
a life of nothing into a business that affords him a good living
and paying wages for other folks.
As Joshua Corning stated above, there are people who like doing
what they do, and if that is the case they figure out how to make a
good living doing it. If they are not smart enough to figure that
out, it isn't my place to hand it to them. That is the socialist
wealth-redistribution model, and I'm sorry, it just ain't my cup of
tea.
That said, even the pro immigration folks agree that
immigration has a negative effect on wages of low skilled workers
and high school drop outs. It makes sense that it would.
Immigration is not an issue of overall well being or health of the
economy. It is an issue of what to do about those at the
bottom that are most effected by future
immigration.
So what do you want to do about low-skilled workers and high school
dropouts?
We could use the power of the government to close the border and
protect them.
We could use the power of the government to extract taxes from
those better off so that we could fund education and job training
for them.
We could tell them to get off their butts and take care of
themselves.
Tell me anyway the government can get involved that doesn't
effectively result in government sanctioned discrimination in favor
of American-born residents against foreign-born residents.
John says: "Perhaps I really am a pinko commie leftist at heart,
but I don't see how having a perminant low paid underclass that is
constantly refreshed and enlarged by influxes of immigrants from
abroad is particularly good for the country."
Perhaps? There's some doubt?
I view the problem of stagnating wages among middle- and
working- class people since the 1970s as a problem of social
justice and the related issue of economic inequality turning into
political inequality and inequality of opportunity - not as a
problem in the material living conditions of median
income-earners.
joe is a "bang for the buck" denialist. Which is convenient, since
denying that gets him a free pass to pimp for all kinds of
wealth-redistribution "justice" and other half-baked schemes to
grab power in the name of other photo-op ready people.
But hey, you're spot on with legalizing the lot of illegals. I can
see that "having a perminant (sic) low paid underclass that is
constantly refreshed and enlarged by influxes of immigrants" is a
good thing. Ditches won't dig themsleves after the previous influx
moves up the ladder.
You know wages have been stagnant when half the population makes less than the median income.
joshua,
You're arguing with yourself again. Nothing you wrote is remotely
relevant to what I wrote. Get back to me when you actually read my
argument and can formulate a response.
D A,
"why not say lower-middle class and be done with it?" It's more
awkward, and the term "lower" carries with it a judgement value
that "working" doesn't.
RC,
"Another big piece of the puzzle (or pie, it works either way) that
a lot of these longitudinal studies of income miss is
benefits."
Which raises the question of how we should count the renumeration
of someone whose employer pays 10% for exactly the same health plan
when the insurer raises premiums. Did my compensation just go up?
Did my material well-being go up?
And for the record, the non-sequitor of the week is joshua
corning's, "Did the government invent anti-lock brakes and the ipod
before or after Al Gore invented the internet?"
At least my statement about after-tax income relates to the
original point about material well being increasing because of
technological advancement.
It's funny you should say that, JW, because I don't have any
opinion about you. Whatsoever.
I don't have a problem with the basic argument presented in the
article...
However...
Given that in the 1960's most homes had one income earner working
around 40 hours per week and current household typically have 2
income earners working around 80 (combined), it seems the typical
family unit has to (or chooses to) work harder in order to support
its standard of living.
The question of the cool new toys seems tangential somehow...
Not that I've worked this out in my head in any detail.
NM,
Two points.
Can one income earner bring in enough money to support a household
at the material level of a 1972 household?
And let's say they can: the cheaper-but-less-desireable stuff that
people were living with in 1973 laregely isn't available anymore,
even for those who would prefer to purchase it instead of modern
stuff.
Given that in the 1960's most homes had one income earner
working around 40 hours per week and current household typically
have 2 income earners working around 80 (combined), it seems the
typical family unit has to (or chooses to) work harder in order to
support its standard of living.
You are missing two important points here:
1. The spouse who stayed home in 1965 worked at least 20 hours on
household duties. In reality, the pay for 40 hours' labor of the
spouse who earned a paycheck should probably be divided by 60
hours, since that's how much work it was really buying.
2. There are more single parent households today than in 1965. And
the single parent can live better off the median income today than
in 1965 because of mechanization of household chores and cheaper
child care services.
You're arguing with yourself again. Nothing you wrote is
remotely relevant to what I wrote. Get back to me when you actually
read my argument and can formulate a response.
Actually it does and your response is to ignore it...other here
understand it quite well and by trying to dismiss me you only make
any claims you make less believable.
So here we go again. At one time in the past if you were wealthy
you could get more stuff that did more things for you then someone
more poor then then you. Like lets say you could get horse which
can carry you farther faster with more stuff then someone who could
not afford a horse. But now cars are relatively cheap...so although
bill gates can get a car that costs him $1 million a relatively
poorer man can get a car for $2000 that has exactly the same
utility. What you fail to recognize is that a greater equality in
the cost of utility...(ie not only has the cost of doing things
dropped but the ability to have higher utility then the lowest
priced goods and services has declined)...has also translated in
equalizing political power.
I think you fail to see this because of your particular bias
towards socialism...equally super-powered individuals tend not to
favor socialism. Socialism wains and you cry foul because your
group is losing claiming the rich are stealing all the power from
the poor when in fact everyone is getting rich and simply ignoring
the likes of you.
And let's say they can: the cheaper-but-less-desireable
stuff that people were living with in 1973 laregely isn't available
anymore, even for those who would prefer to purchase it instead of
modern stuff.
Name one item or service. Better make it good Joe...your whole
claim of a permanent underclass rides on it
This is possibly the most bogus of any claim Joe has made...and
that is saying a lot.
joshua,
From my very first comment:
"I view the problem of stagnating wages among middle- and working-
class people since the 1970s as a problem of social justice and the
related issue of economic inequality turning into political
inequality and inequality of opportunity - not as a problem in the
material living conditions of median income-earners."
Let me repeat the relevant section, as repetion has proven to be an
effective method of teaching the mentally challenged:
"not as a problem in the material living conditions of median
income-earners."
Stop bothering me with your yammering about material living
conditions.
"Name one item or service."
An automobile with manual windows, no processors, and an analogue
AM radio, in new condition, at the inflation-adjusted price it
would have sold for in 1973.
Wow, that was easy.
Maybe if you were more interested in ideas than in smiting the wicked, joshua, you wouldn't make an ass of yourself with such dependable regularity.
Which is why you ought to do something else
right.
URKOBOLt is a spelling nazi now?
..well he was cool for about a min and a half.
An automobile with manual windows, no processors, and an
analogue AM radio, in new condition, at the inflation-adjusted
price it would have sold for in 1973.
That is it?!?!
That is your social injustice that needs massive government
intervention to solve, this horrendous market failure that you
can't roll your window down manually in death trap that gets 10
miles to the gallon?
Well sorry joe...you will just have to buy a used old car with a
new engine for less then the 1973 inflated adjusted price.
"not as a problem in the material living conditions of median
income-earners."
neither am i...
lets play the which is cheaper game
flying to DC...cheaper in 2007
calling your representative...cheaper in 2007
emailing your congressmen....cheaper in 2007 (in fact you could not
even do it in 1973)
printing full-colored flyers on political subjects...cheaper in
2007
making a political blog or website...cheaper in 2007
How again are people less empowered now that doing anything
political is cheaper then ever before?
"It's more awkward, and the term "lower" carries with it a
judgement value that "working" doesn't."
[quibble]
actually, "working" carries another set of judgments in it.
the working class is doing, you know, work.
what are all the other classes doing?
[/quibble]
i'm not really sure what the original article is trying to say - at
first glance it seems kinda...specious - though i'd rather be alive
now than in 1970 or whatever. (and thankfully, i am alive now and
don't have a time machine so the 70s are safe!)
It's funny you should say that, JW, because I don't have any
opinion about you. Whatsoever.
:::sniff::: It hurts so when you tell me how much you don't think
about me.
"That is your social injustice that needs massive government
intervention to solve"
No, joshua, it's an answer to your extremely easy question, "Name
one." You asked me to name one that people were living with in 1973
laregely isn't available anymore, even for those who would prefer
to purchase it instead of modern stuff.
And I did, and you changed the subject.
"How again are people less empowered now that doing anything
political is cheaper then ever before?"
1. It's cheaper for the monied interests, as well. x>y.
5x>5y. And not only that, (5x-5y) > (x-y).
2. "flying to DC...calling your representative...emailing your
congressmen....printing full-colored flyers on political
subjects...making a political blog or website" You have the most
adorable ideas about how the government is influenced! Remember
when Jack Abramoff told his clients to send emails to their
Congressmen? Me neither.
It is not just that the poor can buy cooler stuff now then
they could in the 50's it is that the stuff they can get now is the
best at any price.
True, and as the original post points out, it should be taken into
account when making economic comparisons to the past. On the other
hand, many things that are important to well-being can be
compared: rents and real estate prices, energy costs. I guess
nobody has denied this point, so I'm just stating the obvious.
Third grade education is a relative term...I went to collage
and i do not know how to frame a house or operate and fix the
engine of a d-6 cat...
Wow! Third Grade would have been so much more interesting if we had
learned how to frame a house or rebuild an engine! I think all I
learned was how to add fractions or something like that. I want
that year back!
MikeP,
I said: "Given that in the 1960's most homes had one income earner
working around 40 hours per week and current household typically
have 2 income earners working around 80 (combined), it seems the
typical family unit has to (or chooses to) work harder in order to
support its standard of living."
You reply: "You are missing two important points here:
1. The spouse who stayed home in 1965 worked at least 20 hours on
household duties. In reality, the pay for 40 hours' labor of the
spouse who earned a paycheck should probably be divided by 60
hours, since that's how much work it was really buying.
2. There are more single parent households today than in 1965. And
the single parent can live better off the median income today than
in 1965 because of mechanization of household chores and cheaper
child care services."
I will take your word for it on point 2 and it is an important
piece of the puzzle. How many of those single family households are
below the median might be important, but maybe not. It probably
isn't as easy for a single earner to maintain the median now, but I
could be wrong.
On point 1, however, it seems to be irrelevant. The housework is
pretty much constant across this time frame*, so you would add your
20 hours to both sides of the equation. Or am I missing your
point.
*although trends across the century show increasing housework with
increasing material wealth -bigger house, more chores done more
often as they become more automated, etc.
Joe,
"Can one income earner bring in enough money to support a household
at the material level of a 1972 household?
And let's say they can: the cheaper-but-less-desireable stuff that
people were living with in 1973 laregely isn't available anymore,
even for those who would prefer to purchase it instead of modern
stuff."
I know a bloke that pretty much lives in a world of tech from 1973,
it is quite available and affordable. He is a single income
household working full-time and makes far below the median for
2007. How he would compare to the median in 1973 is tough for me to
judge (I was only 8 and lived far above the median at the time),
but I would bet he is below the 1973 median.
This idea of comparing value across available technology seems
problematic to me. My 1965 Volkswagon provided me with the same
amount of transportation utility as my friends 1982 Honda did (in
1982), and now (and forever, likely) would be worth more money on
the market. A 2007 Prius might provide enough fuel savings to make
it more valuable in terms of transportation utility (but only by a
smidge). So how much more material wealth does the Prius represent?
Who gives a shit if there were no hybrids available in 1973...
there were gas efficient cars. Does an ipod represent more material
wealth than a portable cassette deck from the 80's or 90's? Not
sure how? My listening utility has not really improved (poor sound
quality on the ipod), and the difference in size is negligible. To
claim the ipod is more valuable seems dubious (of course, they do
beat cassette decks in the market, so there ya go).
New classes of technology, unavailable previously, may be a
different case, but I think there is a problem...
Housing, food, easier to compare.
I think the concept of material wealth is too ambiguously defined,
perhaps, to allow for such comparisons.
Just rambling at this point
Which raises the question of how we should count the
renumeration of someone whose employer pays 10% more for exactly
the same health plan when the insurer raises premiums. Did my
compensation just go up?
Yes it did. Your comp (in this approach) consists of the employers
cost for your comp and benefits package.
Did my material well-being go up?
Hard to say. That 10% increase is partly inflationary, in which
case the extra cash doesn't translate into material well-being. On
the other hand, you are still covered for medical services that
advance incrementally in quality every year, so in that sense your
well-being does go up, at least if you use those services.
I will take your word for it on point 2
Really? I wouldn't. I'm just spouting common wisdom, which is very
often wrong.
The housework is pretty much constant across this time frame*,
so you would add your 20 hours to both sides of the
equation.
My point about housework, however, I do believe. The same leverage
the single parent has is also available to the dual-income
household. What I've read says that hours spent doing housework
consistently trends down, and hours of leisure consistently trends
up.
MikeP,
Okay, I won't take your word for it ;^)
My information on housework is a bit old, but last time I saw
anything empirical on it, the trend is for more hours over time,
not less. Big increases in hours spent on housework accompanied the
development of things like the washer/dryer, the electric vaacum,
the dishwasher. It is related to the observation that more efficent
machines result in more energy used in many instances.
Since I have a machine that will wash my clothers efficiently, I
get used to cleaner clothes, and end up washing more frequently,
and therefore spend more hours washing clothes each week than I
used to...etc.
I am afraid I still miss your point about why a housewife staying
at home doing housework is different than a husband and wife
splitting the housework after they get home from work. The work
still needs to get done, is still done by someone in the household,
and is not contributing to income. What am I missing?
MikeP,
A recent look at leisure time...
The new measures reveal a number of interesting 20th Century
trends. First, a more comprehensive measure of "per capita"
suggests a less dramatic decline in hours worked. Second, most of
the decline in hours worked per capita has been offset by an
increase in hours spent in school. Third, contrary to conventional
wisdom, average hours spent in home production are actually higher
now than they were in the early part of the 20th Century. Finally,
leisure per capita is approximately the same now as it was in
1900.
http://www.econ.ucsd.edu/~vramey/research/Historical_Hours.pdf
The work still needs to get done, is still done by someone
in the household, and is not contributing to income. What am I
missing?
Those hours of housework are now paid for by two people's
labor. Before the 40 hours the working spouse spent earning a
paycheck paid for 60 hours of total work. Now the 80 hours two
spouses spend earning paychecks pay for 100 hours of total
work.
So to determine the median per-hour-household-work, the nominal
salary in a two-earner household should be divided by 50 hours
today rather than 60 hours -- a definite improvement in pay per
hour.
And, no, I'm not arguing the labor theory of value here. Multiply
the housework hours by whatever constant you want to decrease or
increase its relative value.
An article on housework loads...
"However, a $100 increase in weekly household income is associated
with only a very modest (around 2 minutes per day) reduction in the
time men or women devote to unpaid housework and childcare. The
effects of high income reducing the time spent in separate
components of housework, such as cooking, laundry or grounds care,
are very small or insignificant.8 ...In addition, exchange or
bargaining theory suggests that the relative share of resources
within households has an important influence on how time will be
allocated among household members. These theories predict that the
person contributing more financial resources will do less domestic
labour...[results] relative income has a much more powerful effect
on time spent in domestic labour than even large increases in total
household income. Compared to women who are wholly financially
dependent on men, women who earn an equal share of their
household's income reduce their time spent in housework by an hour
a day. However, little of this overall reduction comes from
reducing time spent in cooking, laundry or grounds care. Moreover
the relationships between relative income and the above mentioned
domestic activities are curvilinear, so that the greatest
reductions in a woman's domestic labour come from contributing
smaller amounts of income and the effects weaken as a woman becomes
the dominant earner in the household."
Impact of technology
"Our overall conclusion is that owning domestic technology rarely
reduces unpaid household work. Indeed, in some cases owning
appliances marginally increases the time spent on the relevant
task."
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1468-4446.2004.00026.x/full/
MikeP,
Okay I see your point now, but I am not sure it is any more
relevant...
"a definite improvement in pay per hour."
If X= median income and it has not changed in absolute value then
when two workers get X for 60 hours work they make more than those
that get X for 100 hours of work.
Let's pretend the median X is equivalent to 100,000 dollars. In
1970, one wage earner family got (the equivalent of) 100,000
working 60 hours per week (x 50 weeks, say). Now in 2007 two earner
family gets 100,000 working 100 hours.
1970
100,000/3000 hours = 33.33 dollars an hour for the couple's
work.
2007
100,000/5000 = 20 dollars an hour for the couple's work.
Now, this assumes that the medians are equated for value somehow
(100,000) and helps us not at all to determine if the median now is
equal to the median in 1970.
Please correct my math here if appropriate.
I am basically saying that x/3000 is a better deal than
x/5000.
How is this thinking not correct?
It was my understanding that this article is about the
unchanging median for individual salaries, not for
household income.
So 2007 is $200,000/5000 = $40/hour > $33/hour.
(5x-5y) > (x-y)
X = rich people
y = poor people
Brilliant joe i am convinced...we should expand the size of
government to stop rich people from having unjust power over
government....one problem though...what if expanding government
doesn't work in curtailing rich peoples influence over it? ...and
all you end up with is a bigger government that rich people still
have influence over.
Oh wait...that might explain the last 100 years in America.
Remember when Jack Abramoff told his clients to send emails to
their Congressmen? Me neither.
Jack Abramoff? who is he? I am sorry i live in joe's alternate
dimension where government graft and corruption is impossible to
track due to rich people's influences over government. If only it
was 1973 again when no such corruption occurred and when it did we
knew about it.
MikeP,
No, it has to be household income... and I was certainly talking
about household income.
The change from a one to two earner model did not result in a
doubling of incomes for those houses that moved to that
model.
Now, sometimes it did (when my Mom went back to work she ended up
making more than 4 times what my dad made, but that is not by any
means the average result).
The trouble is... if we are trying to say... being at the median is
better now than it was in 1970, but it takes two earners to be at
the median now, and two earners are making more income (your
200,000 figure), then you are just saying we work harder now. But
that is not the form the article's argument took.
The first line of the article:
The second highlight of the Pew report on economic mobility is the finding that, for men in their thirties, median income has fallen slightly between 1974 and 2004.
That is individual income, not household.
Look at the PEW report that they are responding to...
At the end they discuss the fact that men's salaries have fallen
slightly, and that family incomes are higher only because women
have entered the work force...so households are working harder to
provide for themselves. That was my point, and what I thought you
were responding to...
Extra work has led to increased household income. The response by
the authors is trying to say that income is not the proper measure
of wealth.
I just don't see what they are using as their metric of material
well-being. It just seems like a poorly constructed stance.
I didn't realise there was any difference of opinion on
immigration supressing wages.
Reading the Financial Times from the UK, it seems raising
immigration quotas to fight inflation is preferred to raising
central bank interest rates.
I don't understand why US policy is to allow/encourage/subsidise
mass immigration of unskilled labor while severely restricting the
influx of skilled, educated human capital.
Mike P.
"That is individual income, not household."
What is this "individual" crap anyways?
We are a Nation of "working families" not individuals.
"Individuals" is libertarian crazy-talk.
Neu Mejican,
"Just rambling at this point"
Yeah, I'm just bouncing ideas around too. You brought up some
interesting points that got me thinking.
Still, I daresay the 82 Civic did provide more transportation value
than the 63 Bug. For one thing, the Civic contained all sort of
safety and environmental features. While those don't get you to
work any sooner, they do add value to the product overall.
Music on an ipod is clearer and sounds better than a cassette.
joshua corning,
"Brilliant joe i am convinced...we should expand the size of
government to stop rich people from having unjust power over
government....one problem though...what if expanding government
doesn't work in curtailing rich peoples influence over it? ...and
all you end up with is a bigger government that rich people still
have influence over."
You are making the common mistake of assuming that your opponent's
position is the mirror image of your own - like those people who
support affirmative action on the basis of their opposition to
racism, who assume that their opponents are motivated by a support
for racism.
I'm not proposing to enlarge the government. I'm not proposing to
shrink it, either. The size of the government is not the relevant
variable here. Some expansions would serve to increase the power of
monied interests, and some would have the opposite effect. Ditto
with reductions in the size of the government.
Sometimes, you actually need to look at the building plans to
figure out if it's a good design. Just noting the square footage
isn't enough.
Joe,
"Still, I daresay the 82 Civic did provide more transportation
value than the 63 Bug. For one thing, the Civic contained all sort
of safety and environmental features. While those don't get you to
work any sooner, they do add value to the product overall."
My 65 Volkwagon Van had extremely low emissions (always got
comments from the guys at the test center)and great gas milage, but
you have a point about the safety... things were death traps... who
puts the driver in front of the front wheel?
"Music on an ipod is clearer and sounds better than a
cassette."
Nah, just not true. The only real advantages are size and the fact
that you don't have to carry around the tapes. I have a very nice
portable cassette deck.
But either way, it seems that "best available" car/music player in
1970 = "best available" car/music player in 2007 when you are
formulating a metric of material well being.
SIV
"What is this "individual" crap anyways?
We are a Nation of "working families" not individuals.
"Individuals" is libertarian crazy-talk."
It is only relevant if, as I suspect and the PEW report suggests,
individuals (single earners) aren't as likely to be at the median
as they were back in the day. If it takes two earners, on average,
to maintain the median, then material wealth is higher more as a
result of more hours worked than anything else.
My main objection is still that the concept of material wealth
needs to be quantified somehow and the authors do provide a better
solution than the "real income" metric that they criticize.
You've never noticed a difference in sound qualty between a
cassette tape and a digital music file?
Really?
My 65 Volkwagon Van had extremely low emissions
Compared to what? Other 1965 vehicles or a 2007 vehicle?
"Music on an ipod is clearer and sounds better than a
cassette."
Nah, just not true. The only real advantages are size and the fact
that you don't have to carry around the tapes. I have a very nice
portable cassette deck.
There is none of that nasty hiss on an iPod. Plus tapes stretch and
wear out. And even the longest only hold 90 to 120 minutes of music
vs. hundreds of hours on an iPod. So obviously there are no
advantages to iPods. That's why everyone still uses tape.
As Matt L wrote, an i-pod can carry over 100x the music of a
cassette. Moreover, the i-pod makes it vastly easier to rearrange
music, purchase music, and create individualized albums. There
really is no comparison between cassette players and the i-pod for
these features (recording mix tapes on a cassette is a huge pain in
the ass).
As for cars, I wouldn't say that cars represent the best example of
technological leaps. Try computers instead. Even a low-grade modern
calculator is better than an early computer. My current computer
probably gives me more utility than all of your pre-90s computers,
your '65 VW, and your 82' Civic combined (you could also throw in
your 70s dictionaries, typewriters, maps and ecyclopedias -- my
computer still wins).
The problem with your argument that there has been a steady
stream of new products since the 1970s that is underrepresented in
the various measures -- I say underrepresented for some very good
technical economic reasons that I will not bore you with now -- is
that there was not a big break in the supply of new products
sometime in the 1970s. Yes, there has been a steady stream of new
products for the last quarter of a century, but there was also a
massive stream of new products in the previous 25 years from 1950
to 1975. My parents first got a phone about 1950--when I was in the
third grade. How did that impact their living standards compared to
the introduction of cell phones in the 1990s? I suspect the
party-line phone in 1950 had a bigger impact on living
standards.
You talk about having to spend less time on household chores, but
that has been a continuous trend for 150 years. Do you really want
to argue that the microwave oven created a bigger improvement in
consumer well being then the switch from wood or coal kitchen
stoves to electric or gas kitchen stoves that
occurred in an earlier era. Which was a bigger improvement, getting
your first TV in the 1950s or getting 200 channel cable TV in the
1980s?
Again, I suspect the first TV was a bigger improvement.
The data understated the improvements from new products from 1970
to 1975 just as it understated it from 1975 to 2000. But the data
shows a clear break in trend in the late 1970s.
Now, for your argument to be valid you would have to show that
there was an acceleration in the introduction of new products
sometime after 1975. But you have not even attempted to make that
argument.
So your thesis that there has been a steady stream of new products
since 1975 does does little or nothing to explain why there was a
significant break in the trend growth rate of numerous measures of
the economic well being of the population around 25 years ago.
Now, for your argument to be valid you would have to show
that there was an acceleration in the introduction of new products
sometime after 1975. But you have not even attempted to make that
argument.
So your thesis that there has been a steady stream of new products
since 1975 does does little or nothing to explain why there was a
significant break in the trend growth rate of numerous measures of
the economic well being of the population around 25 years
ago.
How about a comparison of similar products that were available in
1975 and 2007 with their prices in each era divided by the average
hourly nominal earning of production workers. Such as that in the
second link I provided in my 1:29pm comment yesterday. That shows
that the hours worked to purchase similar goods today is less than
in 1975, in some cases considerably less. Surely an indicator of an
increase in economic well being.
MattL,
Thanks for repeating the advantage I listed for the ipod. Tape
hiss..we can compare my mini-disc player to your ipod if you want,
or I could list the disadvantages of the ipod. The point being that
the argument presented in the post provides no real way to make a
meaningful direct comparison between the two. You can't base a
comparison of material well-being across decades based on your
subjective impression of the advantages of the new technology
compared to the old.
Many people still claim vinyl has superior quality to CD's, for
instance.
Either way, some amount of income allowed me to buy the music
listening utility I desired in 1970. A different income allows me
to buy the listening utility now. When you claim I am getting more
for my money now, you have to demonstrate some sort of metric that
allows for the comparison that is more rigorous than "It is obvious
that stuff available now is more valuable."
Chris S.
You've obviously been missing out on the subjective pleasure
involved in making a really good mix tape.
And comparing the utility of your computer to my 65 van... how good
is your computer gonna be at getting 12 musicians and all their
equipment across town?
You are falling into the same trap. If you want to claim that a
comparison of "real income" is flawed because you think the measure
being used is inaccurate, you need to provide a better metric, not
your subjective impression that the "real income" doesn't include
some cool features in your new car, on you new music device, from
your new computer.
MattL,
I missed this...
"That shows that the hours worked to purchase similar goods today
is less than in 1975, in some cases considerably less. Surely an
indicator of an increase in economic well being."
That sounds analogous to how they came up with "real income" in the
first place. Once you do all the math, they come up with an overall
stagnation, or even decline for the average 30 year old. Would your
method come up with different results when applied across the
board?
Either way, some amount of income allowed me to buy the
music listening utility I desired in 1970. A different income
allows me to buy the listening utility now. When you claim I am
getting more for my money now, you have to demonstrate some sort of
metric that allows for the comparison that is more rigorous than
"It is obvious that stuff available now is more
valuable."
Which metric would you like? Signal to noise ratio? Storage
capacity? Battery life?
MattL,
"Which metric would you like? Signal to noise ratio? Storage
capacity? Battery life?"
None of those are monotonically related to listening
utility...
So how are you going to apply this technique to a person's total
material well-being?
What rates higher in your system - the greater ease with which I
load songs into my cassette player, or the list making ability of
the ipod?
Why does my 65 VW van have a higher resale value than the 82 Honda
discussed above? Isn't that a better metric to utility/value? If
so, did someone who owned an early 70's Chevelle, that now sells
for 500,000 dollars have more material wealth than the owner of a
2007 Prius?
Just believing that material well-being has improved is far easier
than finding a measure for it. Real income, which is being
criticized, is a method for doing that. What's the better
method?
And since you seem to be stuck trying to sell me an ipod, let me
tell you why I don't own one.
ipods are great in concept. Take your whole record collection with
you wherever you go. Nice idea. Only works, with the current
technology, if you have a pretty small record collection. With
current tech, I can get around 50% of my record collection onto a
40g ipod with anything approaching good sound quality.
ipods are popular because most people don't have such large record
collections, so the concept/utility they sell works for a lot of
people. Not so much for me.
Now, I will admit that I subjectively prefer the minidisc to the
cassette or the ipod, but I won't go so far as to say that makes a
strong case to claim that owning it provides anymore material
well-being for me than an analogous device did for someone in 1975.
There's to much apples to oranges involved.
Your idea of using hours worked to get product type X, is a
reasonable approach, maybe, but I don't see how it is better (or
different) than the real income measure being criticized.
Now, I will admit that I subjectively prefer the minidisc to
the cassette or the ipod, but I won't go so far as to say that
makes a strong case to claim that owning it provides anymore
material well-being for me than an analogous device did for someone
in 1975. There's to much apples to oranges involved.
I used to be a fan of MiniDisc but they still hold less than an mp3
player and are bulkier than a flash based mp3 player so I stopped
using them.
Actually having owned a cassette player, a MiniDisc player, and a
flash and hard drive based player I will go so far as to say the
latter two provide greater material well being to me. And since all
three are still available the relative rarity of the first two
tells me that I am not the only one who thinks that.
I agree there are too many apples and oranges. But I don't buy the
argument that material well being has declined since the 1970's. I
just don't think there is one good way to measure it. If you look
at an aggregate of measures it's clear things have improved. From
the increase in home ownership to real declines in the cost of
certain goods to new products.
Only works, with the current technology, if you have a pretty
small record collection. With current tech, I can get around 50% of
my record collection onto a 40g ipod with anything approaching good
sound quality.
Considering the rate of increase in hard drive storage capacities
this may not be an issue for long.
"Considering the rate of increase in hard drive storage
capacities this may not be an issue for long."
True, so true...
But the time to convert it to mp3...?
Tha' a lot o' hours.
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