Monday Open Thread

What's on your mind?

Comments

[grb]

Good morning, everyone!

[Kazinski]

Another installment of I was wrong.

I was pretty critical about Trump's tariffs when he rolled.them out in April, although my criticism centered on its effect on third world countries not so much domestically and our major trading partners.

The Chief Economist of Apollo Capital (more than half a trillion under management) who was very critical of Trumps tariffs when they came out, predicting a recession by summer.

He has reevaluated his position:

Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone on Tariffs?
June 21, 2025

Torsten Sløk

Apollo Chief Economist

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As we approach the Trump administration’s self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade deals, markets are starting to speculate about what comes next. The longer uncertainty remains elevated, the more negative its impact on the economy, as shown in the chart below.

Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade.

Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs, and it would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.

This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers. Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us."

https://www.apolloacademy.com/is-trump-a-genius/

Of course private economists are much more volatile in their outlooks than government or academic economists. You can't afford to wait and see for 2 years to see what's going to happen and react to it.

He made a short term prediction in April, and he was wrong, no recession seems imminent, and now he is adjusting to what he is seeing because it's the nature of his job to be proactive in adjusting his outlook.

[Commenter_XY]

A lot of uncertainty went away this weekend with the advancement of B3 (b-cubed). The domestic market will react positively to that.

One caveat: Watch what happens with CAN. The retroactive DST ended negotiations, and one would think POTUS Trump will levy a very significant tariff on CAN in response.

[Kazinski]

No, Canada already suspended its DST so they could continue negotiating with the US.

Bloomberg:

Canada Drops Digital Tax That Infuriated Trump to Restart Trade Talks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-30/canada-drops-digital-tax-that-infuriated-trump-to-restart-trade-talks

[Commenter_XY]

Worked pretty fast = tariff threat

[Kazinski]

Must be the new reality that Carney was talking about:
"These are tragedies, but it's also our new reality. We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves and, above all, we have to take care of each other."

[Brett Bellmore]

Oh, cry me a river. Canada started attacking the US on trade and other fronts decades ago, they're just ticked that it's not one way anymore.

[Sarcastr0]

I thought tariffs were for national security purposes only, and trade wars were dumb.

Well, I guess you and Kaz gotta align with your guy, with whatever inconsistencies as that might require.

[LexAquilia]

You thought wrong.

As usual. Stop being such a bad person.

[minus the clever name]

No, you didn't. You have many posts saying the contrary.
"well, I guess" what a smug lazy jerk

[David Nieporent]

There is no such thing as "attacking the US on trade," except I suppose when pirates seize ships.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

"the Code is more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules"

[Armchair]

The case for tariffs has always been stronger than most people gave it credit for.

Very broadly, tariffs help local workers, at the expense of foreign workers and executives/white collars. Low tariffs help the internationals executives and foreign workers. There are likely overall gains in GDP (assuming the tariffs are dropped equally without other trade barriers), but who benefits from those GDP gains can be very different.

I think the economists tended to overstate "how good" low tariff rates were, for a multitude of reasons...including their class.

[Frank Drackman]

Funny how if low tariffs are so great more countries don't have them, I don't think any of "45/47("48?")'s tariffs were higher than what they were charging us.

[Nelson]

“ Very broadly, tariffs help local workers”

Not really. American companies make things abroad and American factories use components that are made abroad, all of which will raise the cost of production. One way to recoup costs without raising prices (which companies are loathe to do) is to freeze hiring and pay increases. So the white collar and existing blue collar workers will be hurt. Any new manufacturing jobs will benefit factory workers through additional positions, but that will only happen if the jobs reshore to America.

You have to remember that almost no one owns their factories any more. They are virtually all contracted manufacturing facilities (think Foxconn for iPhones), so companies aren’t locked into a binary choice between America and, for example, China. Since the tariff on China is now 55%, but the tariff on countries like Vietnam and India are as low as 10%, those companies will shift their production from China to another cost-advantageous country. America is not cost-advantageous, so virtually none of those jobs are coming here.

So, broadly speaking, tariffs hurt local workers by depressing wage increases for existing workers while not adding many new jobs.

In what way do you believe they advantage local workers?

“ Low tariffs help the internationals executives and foreign workers.”

That’s not true. Low tariffs help everyone, since higher profit margins for American companies provide more money to pay American workers (of both blue and white collar) more, while tariffs hurt profits and lead to less available money, stifling wage growth. For better or worse, companies will bolster their stock prices with buybacks before they will increase wages. They only increase wages when forced to. Decreasing their profit margins will hurt wage growth.

“ There are likely overall gains in GDP (assuming the tariffs are dropped equally without other trade barriers)”

Why would you say that? There won’t be much onshoring of jobs, since cheaper labor in other countries will still lead to lower landed costs for foreign production than American production. Which foreign country the goods are produced in may change, but that won’t impact our GDP.

“ I think the economists tended to overstate "how good" low tariff rates were”

Why would math be biased? Math doesn’t care. And the math says that tariffs hurt everyone domestically, both workers of all types and consumers.

[Kazinski]

Nelson you seem to be pretty sure of a lot of things nobody knows for sure.

When tariffs are placed on a good there are four things that can happen:
1. The exporter (manufacturers, and distributer) eats some or all of the tariff
2. the importer eats some or all of the tariff
3. The consumer pays some or all of the tariff
4. The good is no longer imported because there are other cheaper sources from other countries with lower tariffs, or domestically.

All 4 can happen at once, or any combination of the 4.

What we do know so far is that tariffs are not showing up in a noticeable way in aggregate producer or consumer inflation data.

We haven't seen a lot of corporate earnings impacts yet.

The only thing we have seen is significant new tariff revenue to the government.

[Poxigah146]

Yes. But the media are shills for the billionaires and Wall Street, which is why they hate the tariffs, and spread lies and bullshit about it being a tax on consumers.

[Nelson]

Except it absolutely is a tax on consumers. Do you think that companies will respond to higher costs by handing out more generous wages to employees and lowering prices?

It seems you are a little fuzzy on what a profit margin is.

[Poxigah146]

No, it's not a tax on consumers. It's a tax on corporate income. For starters, Nike and GM already announced that they have eaten the tariffs, not passed them on to consumers.

[David Nieporent]

Racist POS, economically illiterate, and a liar to boot.

https://www.scrippsnews.com/life/money/tariffs-force-nike-to-boost-prices-costing-customers-1-billion

[minus the clever name]

Economists 'tend' [ actually 'demand'] that any issue involving money is fully an Economics issue, the way REASON thinks anything where someone opened their mouth is a 1A issue.

tariffs have many good uses . Here's a history of US tariffs
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/tariffs-in-american-history/

[David Nieporent]

Here's a history of US tariffs

…which does not say that tariffs have many good uses.

[David Nieporent]

Very broadly, tariffs help local workers,

…who don't buy things. Or make things using raw materials or components from abroad. Or want to sell things abroad.

[Poxigah146]

The establishment hated the tariffs because they come out of corporate profits, and corporate profits are need to maintain the stock market bubble for the rich.

[Malika the Maiz]

Where’s your retirement money invested?

[LexAquilia]

Look how quickly Malika can bootlick the corporations.

[Malika the Maiz]

If you got out your mom’s basement and got a job you’d realize the health of the stock market is not just a corporate concern.

[Poxigah146]

Irrelevant. The top 1% own 50% of stocks.

[Malika the Maiz]

Not irrelevant, 50 ain’t 100.

[M L]

"If you allow rapacious trade policies that destroy our working class and hollow out the industrial base, you might get an extra 1% return on your stock portfolio!"

[David Nieporent]

"Rapacious trade policies" is word soup.

And of course none of those effects have happened.

[Nelson]

Anyone with a basic understanding of what a profit is used for should hate tariffs. Unless you like the idea of stagnant wages for American workers?

[minus the clever name]

You are on the wrong planet

“Big Three” asset managers—BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street—have swiftly ballooned into behemoths. Taken together, they constitute the largest shareholder in more than 40% of publicly traded U.S. firms, and 88 percent of the S&P 500

[Malika the Maiz]

And they are managing the assets of people like me who work for a living and pay the taxes that fund the programs that take care of you and your extended family.

[Poxigah146]

I have a basic understanding. Since 2020, profit margins for big corporations have ballooned, and they have not used the profits for wages, but for stock buybacks.

[Malika the Maiz]

If you get a job one day you’re free to strike a better bargain for your labor.

[Krayt]

I still have my outstanding prediction. I did not, and still don't think tariffs will balance the budget, but if they do, as with the Internet boom, Congress will rise to the challenge and spend us back into the red quicky.

[Josh R]

Econ 101 predicts a 10% across the board tariff will hurt the overall economy even though it increases domestic production and government revenues. It might feel like it's OK compared to the egregious "reciprocal" tariffs. But, that's just PR. And while it's certainly better than the current uncertainty, it's still worse than the prior status quo.

[LexAquilia]

Who else is excited about State-run grocery stores and Whites only taxes in NYC ?

[Commenter_XY]

I am. Why?

Personally, I want to see the faces of the AWFLs when they get their race-based tax bill. I think I found the appropriate clip. 😉

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDYNVH0U3cs&t=2s

[Sarcastr0]

AWFL = "affluent, white, female liberal."

Yep, MAGA misogyny continues to grow.

[LexAquilia]

Acronyms and classes are misogyny!

[Malika the Maiz]

Labeling a class of women is misogynistic, yes, whatever you think your exclamation point says.

[M L]

The word "women" is misogynistic.

[minus the clever name]

You will die sad and lonely and it will be just (though I take no joy in what you have done to yourself)

[Don Nico]

S_0 would say that. It was the socialist who brought up taxes by race.

[Malika the Maiz]

Citation?

[Kazinski]

Its been in the news a lot.

Socialist New York mayor would raise taxes on 'white neighbourhoods'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/06/27/zohran-mamdani-plan-tax-white-neighbourhoods-new-york/

[Frank Drackman]

I don’t think Mayor Sliwa will do that

[Dr. Ed 2]

I think the state-run grocery stores are a good idea -- and not that far from what exists now. It's going to be an expansion of Meals on Wheels and summer school breakfast/lunch -- and for people already on public assistance now.

It'd be pure socialism -- "here is your box of food for the week."

[NvEric]

Let's see,
1 box of dried potato flakes,
3 cans of SpaghettiOs's,
1 box of powdered milk,
12 packs of shrimp ramen,
... next !

[Frank Drackman]

The month I worked as a Busboy at a Swanky Ali-bama Country Club (Yes, I'm making up that prestigious job) they had a big Sunday morning Brunch buffet, (it was free to members, the cheap bastards) and being "Brunch" (in my entire life I've never eaten "Brunch") it ruined your entire Sunday, as you still had to be there early, and then the drunk bastards would stay until 2 or 3 pm
Members would rave about the Cooks "Southern Home Style Grits" and "Buttery Mashed Potatoes" and of course he was on a "First Name" basis with all the members (they called him by his first name, they were all "Mistuh and Mizzzz" to him)
His Secret? they were both Instant, and it was a Secret because the Manager didn't want anyone knowing, played a part in why I only worked there for a month (and my raiding the Miniatures Closet)

Frank

[Malika the Maiz]

The writer of the Frank Fakeman character performed here must have not taken his meds and has the character performed this weird deep dive broken English soliloquy into his made up persona. More sad and pathetic than usual. This is the kind of nut job attracted to MAGA (see QAnon Shaman).

[Frank Drackman]

even nuttier is the Malika the Maiz character responding to another character, and I done tole you', done lost my job, how I sposed to get money to pay dis Rent? and anyway, it's only the 30th.

[Riva]

Yeah, good ideas. And who knows what benefits could accrue from defunding the police and replacing them with social workers. We could really maximize the potential if those same social workers were dedicated to globalizing the intifada. NY is on the cusp of a new golden age. Or something.

[Malika the Maiz]

The likely mayor of NYC has some genuinely nutty ideas. He should stick to realistic policy goals he can actually accomplish like building a huge wall and having Mexico pay for it or ending a three year conflict on day one.

[Frank Drackman]

Or he could just do like they do in his native Uganda and have people like you entombed behind walls.

[Brett Bellmore]

I thought that was an Italian thing.

[Frank Drackman]

Montresor was a nice guy, he took a 1,000 insults before he got his revenge.

[Sarcastr0]

I mean DeBlasio was super liberal and not much happened on his watch.
This deep cut quote farming from the right may work on the NYC electorate, who knows. But it's all propaganda and has little predictive value on what to actually expect.

[minus the clever name]

Which proves you have the same hate and disdain for your friends as for your enemies. You are a cancer that can speak

[Malika the Maiz]

Look at this lil’ economically anxious guy!

[Don Nico]

Sure and with team D out of the way, the number of illegal crossing has slowed to merely a trickle

[Malika the Maiz]

Where’s that Mexican paid for wall?

[Nelson]

Who actually thinks that any of his more radical ideas will happen, given the vast power that financial corporations and other monied interests have in NYC?

I know the right loves to pretend that NYC is some bastion of liberalism, but social policy and economic policy are very different things. Socially liberal and business-centric is a weird mix, but that’s why NYC is one of the most successful cities in the world.

[Poxigah146]

The Wall Street banksters control America (look at the lies and bullshit they spread about tariffs to maintain high stock prices), so I have no doubt they'll win here as well.

[Sarcastr0]

Moneyed interests are a problem, but if you want to claim things are other than they seem you need to provide some countervailing evidence, not handwaiving villain narratives.

[LexAquilia]

He supplies just as much evidence for his claims as you do.

[Malika the Maiz]

Lil’ Lexie of course doesn’t see logic as a kind of evidence, or rather doesn’t see logic in any sense…

[Nelson]

How, exactly, does pointing out the negative repercussions of tariffs maintain high stock prices?

[Poxigah146]

Because the negative repercussions are for corporate profits (and thus, stock prices), not prices for consumers. They spread BS about it being a tax on consumers to get people to oppose them, because telling people tariffs were bad for Wall Street but good for America wouldn't have been popular.

[Malika the Maiz]

This is economic illiteracy in action. Not only do many people work for corporations but many also have stock in them.

[Kazinski]

At the rate people with money are leaving NY they may not have the power they used to.

[shawn_dude]

Meh. This is a similar pattern to many large cities that emptied out during COVID. The data is showing reversals of this trend.

[Brett Bellmore]

That's for the state as a whole, not the city.

[jb]

People who don't live in NYC sure worry a lot on behalf of the citizens of NYC.

Mamdani is proposing a total of five government-run grocery stores. Given the margins grocery stores run at, it seems like kind of a silly idea, but if they are useless it's also not going to cost very much or inconvenience anyone.

Given that Mamdani ran on a platform of taxing rich people more, I imagine that the affluent people that voted for him are going to be a lot less surprised by their tax bill than the poor people who voted for Trump and are about to get kicked off Medicaid despite Trump promising he wasn't going to cut it.

[Stephen Lathrop]

jb — Grocery margins are a topic barely accessible to public discourse. The margins grocery managers announce, and support with examples, cannot be taken as illustrative. Too many other factors figure in, many of which are kept out of sight.

There are rebates from middlemen. Shelf access fees. Premium placement fees. Square-footage-reckoned profit allotments designed to push up prices for low-cost alternatives, to make them more-closely match those generated by higher-cost competitors.

It's a very tough business, and typically toughly run, with middle men having sometimes dictatorial say in what prices get charged at retail, and with middle-man markups the larger and more variable. Consider the milk rebate. Maybe this week one retailer gets paid a rebate based on the amount of gross sales. The competitive retailer nearby gets his rebate on the basis of the volume of milk sold. Thus opposite price incentives for two competitors, dictated by the same middleman who supplied both. Why? Sometimes the grocery managers do not know themselves, and the middlemen just grin amiably and change the subject when you ask them to explain.

Also, if you look at prices paid to producers, as ratios to the cost of goods on grocery shelves, the results are all over the place. A baking potato on the produce aisle might cost 20 times per pound what the farmer gets for it. That happens even though a potato is about the least perishable produce the grocer sells. Much of the more-perishable produce sells for a mysteriously lower markup. Over in the butcher department the ratios will be wildly different. Some products subsidize others, with products most reliably in demand, like milk, the most subject to manipulations.

Everything about retail pricing is founded in major part on annualized profit on investment—where inventory is a major fraction of investment. Grocery inventory turns over many times per year, aggregating profit-per-inventory-item repeatedly with each turnover. Thus, an apparently low-percentage profit-per-item-sold, can turn out to be a robust return on annualized investment for that item category, often much higher than you would see on other kinds of retail items featuring slower turnover and typically higher margins per sale. Do not try to compare retail markup percentages on groceries and other kinds of goods, without insight into turnover rates for each.

Of cource, the same process works in reverse in a consumer's budget. Small changes in profit margins per purchase can end up as large yearly increases in the food budget for weekly-purchased items—especially so for lower-cost items, of the kinds shoppers tend to substitute when they feel hard pressed by inflation.

Please take these remarks as illustrative of a long-ago situation in grocery pricing, which will of course differ in particulars from what might happen now in some different region. I have little doubt the overall thrust of my remarks still applies almost everywhere in this nation.

I learned about this stuff from grocery managers and middle men while I was in the newspaper business, and partly reliant on grocery advertising to keep a local weekly afloat. I got some great stories out of it too, with competing grocers feeding me tips they hoped would undermine the most effective pricing scams used by their competitors.

[Bunny495]

Not disputing what you posted, but pointing out there is a lot more to the story. I spent some time doing accounting for my brothers trucking business. For starters grocery stores could maybe stay open for two or three days if deliveries stopped. Not trying to dis how important farmers are but without truckers everything they grow would be rotting after it was picked. Thing is you could double or triple what workers are paid to harvest food and it would still be a fraction of what it costs to transport food to market. Included in the cost of transportation is getting the food off the truck and onto the loading dock at the store. As a general rule the trucker is not paid till the food is unloaded and as much is made about illegal aliens picking crops there is also a thriving market for workers (some legal, some not) waiting under an overpass to jump on the sideboards of trucks headed to the loading dock to pick up a quick Benjimin to unload the truck. There is also a market for peeps who have done it dozens of times a day to take over for the truck driver to back the truck up to the loading dock if it is a tricky tight space.

Point is getting produce to market is a complex operation and transportation is the biggest cost as a rule (expensive foodstuffs like saffron or caviar may be exceptions). Maybe ten years ago I was going with a girl from Sweeden, and she was shocked entering a Publix grocery store in the Florida Keys at what was available compared to the EU. When we took a road trip to Miami and she entered a Walmart she was even more shocked.

[not guilty]

The Trump administration is mollycoddling an illegal alien, Jose Ramon Hernandez Reyes, who has been convicted of smuggling migrants and illegally reentering the United States after having been deported. He also pleaded guilty to “deadly conduct” in connection with a separate incident in which he drunkenly fired a gun in a Texas community.

Records reviewed by the Washington Post show that Hernandez Reyes has been released early from federal prison to a halfway house and has been given permission to stay in the U.S. for at least a year.

Prosecutors have identified Hernandez Reyes as the “first cooperator” in the case against Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, according to court filings. The Department of Homeland Security maintains that Hernandez Reyes owned a sport utility vehicle that Abrego Garcia was allegedly using to smuggle migrants when the Tennessee Highway Patrol stopped him in 2022. That traffic stop is at the center of the criminal investigation against Abrego Garcia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-witness-against-kilmar-abrego-garcia-won-t-be-deported-court-records-show/ar-AA1HEjnz?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=c6efbe043178407d84824e3c7dd4be1f&ei=9

Ho! Ho! Ho!

[Dr. Ed 2]

So what? They make deals every day.

[Nelson]

True, but the usual process is to make deals with the less bad, small fish to get the more bad, bigger fish, not make deals with the big fish to get the small fish.

If you’re the guy who ran the smuggling operation that Garcia drove for, however, this is an amazing opportunity. It’s like making trades with the Buffalo Sabres.

[Kazinski]

It seems like Trump Administration strategy is that the more you resist the harder the hardball.

Were I an illegal alien and my lawyer told me don't worry we'll get an injunction in the 4th circuit to stop this, I would be less than reassured. I would.prefer Mexico or el Salvador to South Sudan.

[Frank Drackman]

So you'd prefer eating Tacos to being the ingredient in one?

[tylertusta]

Perhaps Garcia will be given the choice between El Salvador and South Sudan.

[Poxigah146]

Yes. Abrego Garcia was probably banking on being allowed to stay in the U.S. Trump is going to make sure that doesn't happen.

[Commenter_XY]

In the end, they're both gone, NG.

[not guilty]

The ordinary rationale for the prosecution cutting a sweetheart deal is to develop evidence against a higher value target. Here Jose Ramon Hernandez Reyes -- the owner of the SUV that Abrego Garcia is accused of driving and the leader of the alleged conspiracy -- is a bigger fish whom the prosecutors are treating with kid gloves in order to go after someone further down the food chain who has kicked the DOJ's ass up and down the federal court system all the way to SCOTUS.

The Honorable Waverly Crenshaw is a good judge. There is ample predicate for an evidentiary hearing if the defense moves to dismiss the indictment for prosecutorial vindictiveness. I will be surprised in this sham prosecution makes it to a jury.

[LexAquilia]

Given your track record with legal predictions, I'm surprised you weren't too ashamed to make another.

[Frank Drackman]

Those are his predictions, and if you don't like them, I'm sure he has others

[not guilty]

I wonder. Has Rob McGuire -- the Acting United States Attorney for the Middle District of Tennessee -- ever in his life represented a client with a functional cardiovascular system? Has he ever cross-examined a snitch?

He is getting his marching orders from elsewhere.

[Mr. Bumble]

Acting United States Attorney // Middle District of Tennessee

Robert E. McGuire was appointed Acting United States Attorney for the Middle District of Tennessee on December 28, 2024. A Nashville native, Mr. McGuire is a seasoned prosecutor with more than twenty years of experience in handling violent crime cases. Throughout his career, he has prosecuted over thirty murder cases and conducted more than one hundred felony jury trials in both state and federal courts. In addition to his work as a prosecutor, Mr. McGuire serves as an Adjunct Professor of Law at Belmont Law School, where he teaches in the Trial Advocacy program.

[not guilty]

As I said, has he ever in his life represented a client with a functional cardiovascular system? Has he ever cross-examined a snitch?

He ran unsuccessfully in the 2014 Democratic primary for District Attorney General, and then couldn't make a living in the private sector.

[Michael P]

He is "often in error, never in doubt", as the saying goes.

[Mr. Bumble]

...and so far almost always wrong.

[Poxigah146]

No he's not. He's an affirmative action Obama appointee.

[tylertusta]

ordinary

This case is not ordinary.

is a bigger fish whom the prosecutors are treating with kid gloves in order to go after someone further down the food chain who has kicked the DOJ's ass up and down the federal court system all the way to SCOTUS

As a former attorney, I'm sure you can think of instances where fighting back against the government gave a defendant a worse result than if they conceded early.

[Sarcastr0]

How are the interests of justice served by letting the worse guy go so they can go after they guy who got more press because the Admin fucked up?

[tylertusta]

You're a bright dude; I'm sure you can brainstorm a few ways that a prosecutor would view this strategy as serving the interests of justice in the big picture.

[David Nieporent]

Well, the actual career prosecutor faced with this situation quit in disgust.

[tylertusta]

No surprise there given his career.

[David Nieporent]

I have no idea what that's supposed to mean.

[tylertusta]

Here's one way:

When I used to live in Illinois, the next town over had a group of affluent high school students who went around to other schools breaking in and stealing expensive electronic equipment. TVs, projector screens, computers, etc. They were eventually caught by the police.

The first one who plead out also faced the most criminal exposure for having participated in most of the robberies. In his plea deal he fingered the rest of his budding gang, who in turn squealed on everyone else.

The guy left holding the bag was the getaway driver, who didn't actually break in and didn't actually sell any of the items that were stolen. The rest of the group all elevated the driver's importance to save their own skins. The result was that everyone else got probation while the driver was the only one to serve time in prison.

So let's ask the question: what interest in justice was there letting the driver serve prison while the rest got off with probation?

The justice interest being served was that the first people to snitch get the best deals. That encourages snitching and resolves cases sooner, with less hassle and with less expense for the government. People who fight the government or take deals last get the short end of the stick.

[Sarcastr0]

No, I really can't. The only interests I can see are the administration wanting a political win after they fucked up basic due process so bad they had to back down.

[tylertusta]

I gave you an example to help make up for your lack of imagination.

https://reason.com/volokh/2025/06/30/monday-open-thread-112/?comments=true#comment-11109377

[Malika the Maiz]

So you yourself can or won’t provide an answer?

[tylertusta]

Huh? I don't understand what you're saying here.

[Kazinski]

Kind of a dumb thing to hang your hat on, Reyes was already charged, convicted, and served his time, and deported over human trafficking.

There might be certain constitutional problems charging him again, for the same facts.

Now he is in prison for another charge, re-entering the US after previously been deported.

[Malika the Maiz]

Remember, this guy kept slavishly repeating his King’s mantra that he was never coming back.

[Nelson]

“ In the end, they're both gone, NG”

Really? Because the deal allows the guy who ran the smuggling operation to stay in America. And in return for the really bad guy, the small fry will get deported. But in Trumpworld, that’s a win I guess.

[Poxigah146]

I'm sure they have some other grounds to seize him the moment the Garcia case is over.

[Nelson]

Sure, the head of a human smuggling operation doesn’t have lawyers who understand how to use leverage to get benefits for their clients. Your weird speculation that the Trump administration is competent and strategic is adorably naive.

Trump was embarrassed by Garcia. He will sacrifice anything to alleviate that embarrassment. Born-on-third-base trust fund babies like Trump have fragile egos and will sacrifice anything to protect their self-image.

[minus the clever name]

And that would be a major stupid move. DOJ and others will be watching what lawyers get hired, checking the bank accounts, phone records, etc. A terrible move it would be for the smugglers to do anything but move on.
To think they would not stop at killing Garcia is to be naive.

[Riva]

Would it have been smarter to deport him before he could provide testimony at the Maryland man’s trial? You’re sharp today counselor.

[tylertusta]

Garcia is not being well-served by his attorneys here.

[Mr. Bumble]

...all in the fine Democrat tradition of use 'em, throw 'em out.

[David Nieporent]

Garcia is no longer in CECOT, so he has been very well served by his attorneys here.

[tylertusta]

Garcia was possibly never in CECOT. He even admitted he was being treated well in El Salvador.

However, he might actually end up in CECOT if he's convicted in Tennesse. Furthermore, if he can't go back to El Salvador because he stands on his WOR, he might be sent to South Sudan. Or another swell vacation destination.

As I said, I don't think he's being well-served by his attorneys.

[David Nieporent]

Garcia was possibly never in CECOT. He even admitted he was being treated well in El Salvador.

Be less gullible:

Van Hollen said that Abrego Garcia told him that he’d shared a cell with 25 prisoners and was afraid of many fellow inmates at CECOT before he was moved to another center in Santa Ana, El Salvador. He said that Abrego Garcia reported being treated well — but noted that they were surrounded by government minders at the time.

(Emphasis added.)

He was in CECOT. He was moved from CECOT after his lawyers got involved to help him. So that's already a big point in his lawyers' favor.

[tylertusta]

Yawn. I trust Van Hollen about as far as I can throw him.

[Malika the Maiz]

Tyler trusts Trump as much as he can hug him. Please let Tyler hug him!

[David Nieporent]

He was the source for your claim that Abrego Garcia "admitted he was being treated well in El Salvador"!

[Moderation4ever]

The Trump Administration 2.0 is out to get Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia because their own treatment of him was an embarrassment. They Adminstration would give Charles Manson, were he alive, a pardon to just to dump on Garcia.

[tylertusta]

I don't know about Manson, but Garcia's value as a target of prosecution was greatly elevated by the firestorm surrounding his deportation and Judge Xinis's tirades.

[David Nieporent]

Garcia's value as a target of prosecution was greatly elevated by the firestorm surrounding his deportation and Judge Xinis's tirades.

Until people who know what they're doing look at the evidence and realize how bad it is, anyway.

[Sarcastr0]

That's a pretty Trump-serving definition of value.

What a low expectation you have of your guy.

[tylertusta]

That's a pretty Trump-serving definition of value.

We are both merely stating the obvious.

What a low expectation you have of your guy.

He's not my guy, pal.

[Sarcastr0]

Fair re: Trump, but then what is your pushback to Moderation4ever?

There is no value to prosecutors, only to Trump's MAGA political team.

[Malika the Maiz]

Cynicism is its own reward for some.

[tylertusta]

I said what I meant in my original comment, which was merely an observation: the only reason that the DOJ is going after Garcia this way is solely because he was elevated politically.

Is it also vindictive? I'm unsure about it in a legal sense, but in a common, everyday sense of the phrase, it absolutely is.

But it wasn't the DOJ that turned Garcia into a political football: it was his attorneys, Judge Xinis, and the media who did that. The DOJ is responding to incentives and has decided to play the game after all.

[David Nieporent]

He's not my guy, pal.

If you walk like a MAGA and quack like a MAGA, you're a MAGA.

[tylertusta]

Yawn.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Am I the only one wondering why we haven't heard anything about the Idaho sniper?

[Frank Drackman]

Probably one of those Idaho Trannies

[NvEric]

With a Spud Manifesto

[Dr. Ed 2]

Or Travis Decker.

[Frank Drackman]

Hey! I'm the one who makes references nobody understands!

[Riva]

It doesn’t advance any media narratives. So they essentially ignore it.

[jb]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/us/coeur-dalene-idaho-shooting-ambush.html

Literally one of the top stories on the NYT. Why bother looking when you can make up your own narrative, though?

[Malika the Maiz]

When you’re a nutty conspiracy bot hammer everything looks like a conspiracy nail if you glance at it briefly enough.

[Krayt]

It's a game! Will he be a Muslim? A neo-Nazi? A kid pissed at Israel?

A mundane psycho or guy whose gf was stolen by a fireman are so boring.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Why is the FBI rolling heavy into Idaho if the only perp is dead?

[CountmontyC]

Well now that the FBI is not being used to persrcute traditional Catholics, parents who attend school board meetings and J6ers a lot of FBI agents have a lot of time on their hands and need something to do. Also they would probably prefer to deal with a dead perp than their buddies in Antifa.

[Riva]

Didn't write that the story was completely ignored. The import was the press is not obsessing about it like they would with part of a leaked incomplete intel report that could be exploited to create a false narrative against the Administration. Why bother actually reading the comment and thinking when you can reflexively respond with an idiot trollish response?

[Malika the Maiz]

It was completely ignored by being highly featured! Riva bot still hasn’t run that diagnostic I see.

[Nelson]

“ like they would”

I see. Actual prominent coverage is downplayed with partisan hypotheticals. Conservatives (and Russian troll farm workers like Riva) really struggle with the difference between actual and hypothetical.

Hint: partisan hypotheticals aren’t real.

[Bwaaah]

At 8:31AM (EDT), I counted 19 stories that were higher on the front page than the Idaho story. You say: "Literally one of the top stories on the NYT." And yet, beneath "35-minute Crispy Sheet-Pan Noodles With Glazed Tofu."

"Literally."

[LexAquilia]

Glazed Tofu?

That's pretty dang important to the soy-boy crowd.

[jb]

You must like glazed tofu a lot because I don't see that. I guess the website is doing some personalization. In both the app and on the website, I see nine stories clustered into three topics (OBBB, MS-13, and tariffs) above it.

Importantly, it's above the Opinion pieces, which is where I usually stop scrolling.

[Bwaaah]

Here is an archive of the NYT home page with the Idaho story below the opinion pieces (from 05:21 am this morning):

https://web.archive.org/web/20250630052114/https://www.nytimes.com/

It has dropped much lower down now.

[Malika the Maiz]

Unlikely, any NYT subscriber knows the cooking stories are far below that.

[Brett Bellmore]

Harvested the first of our Zucchino Rampicante squash.

Actually pretty good, and they look great on the garden arch, too. I just wish my wife had planted them by the NEW garden arch, not the old one; The new one used fence panels, not wire fencing on a frame, and the openings are much bigger.

If you build a garden arch, don't cheap out by skipping the heavy fence panels, the large openings are critical to allowing you to harvest through the arch.

[Stephen Lathrop]

The Guardian reports Trump sent an explicit threat to the University of Virginia, threatening funds cut offs if the President of the University did not resign. He did.

[patiens]

Intensely mindless for the Univ Pres not to see he was headed over the cliff. Everybody else saw it.

[Frank Drackman]

You already told us what Trump did, so what did the President of the University do?

[Brett Bellmore]

He claims he was going to retire next year anyway, but the subtext seems to be that he didn't think the university's racial discrimination programs were legally defensible, but didn't want to preside over their being dismantled, either.

[minus the clever name]

But he didn't wait til next year, so not really an explanation.

[shawn_dude]

"legally defensible" is an interesting take. I'd buy "politically defensible" under the current administration and Congress--where the President is hell-bent on bending every law in his way and Congress is cheering him on.

[Stephen Lathrop]

The Guardian reports that Trump has threatened the City of New York with funds cut offs in connection with the mayoral candidacy of Democratic Primary winner Zohran Mamdani.

The U.S. Supreme Court seems determined to avoid taking judicial notice of Trump's ongoing lawless attacks on American constitutionalism. Unless the Court reverses itself, it will have to be treated as a complicit participant in a would-be fascist takeover of the United States.

[Frank Drackman]

Maybe you can have the NYC District Attorney charge "45/47("48"?) with 34 more (redacted, keepin it clean EV!) "Felonies"

[Poxigah146]

That's not what he said. He didn't say that he'd cut off funds if Mamdani won. He said "I can’t imagine it, but let’s say this, if he does get in I’m going to be president and he is going to have to do the right thing, or they’re not getting any money."

Meaning that if he's elected and does what he says he's going to do, Trump will cut off federal funding.

[Malika the Maiz]

Down with federalism!

[Stephen Lathrop]

Trump's lawless threats to impose arbitrary tariffs on Canada seem to have accomplished one purpose. Canada yesterday agreed to rescind a tax on tech company revenues which would have raised an immediate $3 billion for the Canadian treasury, and more going forward.

[Frank Drackman]

Is that 3 Billion Canadian dollars or real ones? Theirs are only worth about 3/4 of ours, makes them feel richer.

[Mr. Bumble]

What would you expect from a country (state?) whose dollar is called a loonie?

[Frank Drackman]

and for a people who love Hockey so much (I still don't get the "Offsides" Rule, in Soccer, or Hockey, in (Amurican, i.e. Real) Foo-bawl it's simple, somebody crosses an imaginary line too soon, where was I,
they love Hockey so much, when was the last time a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup?

[ThePublius]

"The last time a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup was in 1993, when the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Los Angeles Kings. This win marked the end of a 32-year drought for Canadian teams." So, it seems they go at least 32 years between wins. But that's technically speaking. If you count up the Canadians playing on U.S. teams you might say Canada wins every year!

[Frank Drackman]

Its clear we need a tariff on them

[LexAquilia]

IOW

Tariffs against us by foreign nations are totally legit, normal, moral, and don't have any harmful local side effects.

Tariffs by us against foreign nations are illegal, immoral, and harm our sacred economy.

[Don Nico]

Stephen,
Happy Monday. If you removes one word, "lawless" no one would have anything to argue about.

[Malika the Maiz]

So King Trump said he would end the Ukraine-Russia War on day one.

“Russia launched its biggest aerial attack against Ukraine overnight, a Ukrainian official said Sunday, part of an escalating bombing campaign that has further dashed hopes for a breakthrough in efforts to end the 3-year-old war.”

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-biggest-aerial-attack-9fda235a9345d506cf6c796ddfa80e33

[Nelson]

He said the same thing about Afghanistan. He seems confused about what “Day One” means.

[Don Nico]

You that scoff,
Let's hear your suggestion about how to stop the killing.

[Malika the Maiz]

I’m scoffing at his ridiculous claim that he failed to accomplish. Why do you defend it?

[shawn_dude]

Neither MtM nor Nelson claimed to have a solution. Trump ran for office on a platform that included this promise. Flipping the question back on those "that scoff" and not holding the promise-holder liable is just a diversion from the overall point:

Trump lies*. His supporters defend him for that.

* exchange "lies" for "is addled" if you feel that's more accurate. We've all heard him speak, amirite?!

[Brett Bellmore]

Sure, Trump lies. Biden lied. Harris lies. It's something politicians do.

But what has his foes pissed off is finding that his campaign promises weren't lies, that he actually is trying to do what he ran on doing.

Clumsily. Often with insufficient attention to details, including legally mandatory details. But, he's actually trying to do what he ran on doing.

And that's so novel in a Republican President his base is going to cut him a lot of slack.

[Malika the Maiz]

“Sure, Trump lies. Biden lied. Harris lies. It's something politicians do.”

Sure, my brother shit in the bathroom floor when he slept over. But your brother didn’t flush the toilet after he peed and your sister left the cap off the toothpaste!”

[Brett Bellmore]

A reminder to those horrified by Trump's immigration enforcement: This is what an actual civil liberties nightmare really looks like:

German Police Conduct Nationwide Crackdown on Citizens Accused of Online Speech Crimes

If this were Germany, most of the commenters here would be at risk of time in jail. As it's the US, we're safe.

Well, at least until after the next Presidential election, since Democrats seem to approve of this sort of thing.

[Frank Drackman]

The one thing I like about Germany?? (the Bier's overrated BTW)
They actually ticket "Left Lane Bandits" (and they do warn you with the "Links Uberholen, Rechts Fahren" signs everywhere) Unfortunately, if you do get some Poltroon from Slovakia or Poland driving 100km/hr in the left lane, nobody will pass on the Right, as that's an even bigger ticket, so you get a "Stau" all the way to France.

Frank

[Stephen Lathrop]

Bellmore executes deft subject change to hypothetical future misconduct by Ds . . . which justifies Bellmore's current support for overthrow of U.S. Constitution.

[Krayt]

"We're gonna alter or abolish section 230 unless the tech companies do something about online harrassing tweets oh look our political opponents' tweets are harrassing."

This happened and will not be memory holed. It should not be, as it's a warning about the future and what your side will do, a dire prediction.

The facebook guy said he would not do this to politicians in particular, as a democracy needs to see what those who are elected say, and you made him stand tall before Congress and explain himself.

Folks around here said the section 230 threats, a sword of Damoclese, was not so and not having such an effect. "The corporations are doing this all voluntarily, of their own free will!"

When freed of that threat when power changed hands, the CEOs said, yup, it happened!

Then you goalpost shifted and said, "Look! These companies are just pandering to whoever is in power!"

Yes. They do indeed. I wonder why. You are insidious with respect to freedom.

People are right to fear hypotherical reprisal by Democrats in the vein of Germany and the UK, in the lead with your sentiments but "We don't need no stinking First Amendment" to get in the way.

Without it, your impulse is to do that. You may try anyway.

[Bwaaah]

All true and still in crisp view.

[minus the clever name]

You just did what you accuse him of. You KNOW none of those things.

[Michael P]

Across the ditch, a rap group is permitted to tell concert-goers “Kill your MP!” and “The only good Tory is a dead Tory”, yet Lucy Connolly is still serving a 31-month sentence over a Tweet she deleted.

[Frank Drackman]

Seems some Demographic groups are more equal than other Demographic groups

[Sarcastr0]

A RAP GROUP

Meanwhile, you leave out: Connolly posted online calling for "mass deportation now", "set fire to all the... hotels [housing asylum seekers]... for all I care," and "If that makes me racist, so be it."

Such speech should be protected, but if you're going to post the one you should post the other.

[Bob from Ohio]

posted online!

Do you hear yourself?

[jb]

Meanwhile, here at home Ted Cruz got confused and thought the folks at a concert across the ditch were "the Democratic party's base".

Seems like you guys are getting pretty desperate: can't find anything bad that actual Democrats are doing so let's find something bad going on in another country and just pretend that's the D's fault too.

[Malika the Maiz]

That’s not getting desperate, that’s a day that ends in Y.

[Michael P]

The Democrat party's base is people who chant things like "globalize the intifada", or elect those who chant those things.

[Malika the Maiz]

It’s five degrees of separation with Mikie P!

[Sarcastr0]

Vibes time for Michael!

Does he see how he’s proving jb correct?

[Nelson]

“ The Democrat party's base”

You seem confused about what a base is. People who chant “globalize the Intifada” are “the Democratic base” as much as people who click their heels while saluting and shouting “Heil Hitler” are “the Republican base”. Neither are “the base” of either party, just hateful wingnuts that loathe the other side so much they will mindlessly support someone who hates the same people they hate.

Although the Unite the Right rally was organized by an avowed neo-Nazi and featured torch-bearing conservatives chanting “Jews will not replace us”, so there’s that.

[Sarcastr0]

With the GOP the fringe has become the rug.

So they're desperate to point to the same thing happening to the Dems.

I'm no big fan of the very old leadership the Dems have, but their boring and out-of-touchness leads to some pretty amusing straw-grasping from MAGA people trying very hard to excuse their own side's extremism by deflecting left.

[minus the clever name]

But nobody take you seriously with your "i have no allegiance to Dems or Reps or anybody" . You might be a coward, that would explain it but you aren't 'above the fray' you are just too chickenshit ot put a positive statement in print. a sniper

[Malika the Maiz]

There’s no way you’re not as bad as me!!!

[LexAquilia]

A proponent of "globalize the Intifada" just won the NYC Democrat primary for Mayor though.

How could you not put 2 and 2 together on that one?

[jb]

If you start with an understanding of the word "proponent" that would probably help. Kind of hard to say someone is a proponent for a phrase when asked about it he says "that’s not language that I use".

Which explains why to try attach this to the Democratic party somehow you have to convince yourself that some rap group in a different country is somehow representative of like a third of the population of the US.

[Michael P]

In an update, the Democrat base has been dropped by their agency and also lost their visas to the US.

https://deadline.com/2025/06/bob-vylan-dropped-uta-1236445637/
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/uk/bob-vylan-uk-band-glastonbury-us-visa-intl-latam

[Sarcastr0]

Two things can both be bad.

You think this comparison favors you, because to you these people aren't human to you so their misery doesn't count.

You would make, as they say, a Good German. Those Rootles Cosmopolitans don't get civil liberties, and that's all well and good. Meanwhile lets look at the plight of the poor German shopkeep...

Also, getting mad at Germany being extra touchy about Nazi shit seems to be kind of missing something.
Or a distraction.

[LexAquilia]

Tomorrow when you wake up, try saying this out loud when you place your feet on the ground.

"Today, I will try and be a better person and not a garbage human like I was yesterday".

Could you do that?

[Malika the Maiz]

Every accusation….

[Poxigah146]

Most of the "horribles" with respect to immigration are enforcement are lies. Citizens are not being swept up regularly in raids.

The left is upset that people here illegally, or people who didn't belong here on a permanent base like the temporary protected status people, are being made to leave.

[Sarcastr0]

Citizens are not being swept up regularly in raids.
Except I know you'll also defend this:
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement

people who didn't belong
Yeah there it is.

[LexAquilia]

Citizens are not ... regular ...

Woah, that's pretty insane, even for you.

[minus the clever name]

And NPR is perfectly okay with losing all funding. GROW UP

[Frank Drackman]

What funding? they keep saying they get "almost" all of their Shekels from Saps, I mean, their "Valued Listeners"

[Joe_dallas]

The leftists commentators would have free reign for the inane comments.

[Malika the Maiz]

“But now the semicolon is dead. Or semi-dead. Its use has collapsed, as underlined last month by a study from Babbel, an online language-learning platform. “Semicolon usage in British English books has fallen by nearly 50% in the past two decades,” the survey said — and this sudden drop followed a steady decline across the past two centuries.

A study of semicolon use in U.S. publishing from 1920 to 2019 saw a similarly dramatic slide. Newspapers, magazines, and fiction and nonfiction books all soured on the semicolon, though nonfiction after 2000 did see an uptick from the depths.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/22/punctuation-semicolon-debate/

[Don Nico]

I worry about it when Stephen answers your comment. He actually knows something about the topic.

[Krayt]

I'd have put a colon after the second sentence "platform" to emphasize the following quote as explanatory example.

You could also have done this:

survey said — and this sudden

to

survey said; this sudden

But both the colon and semicolon would make a clumsy large sentence, with the phrases' emphasis stepping on each other.

Hmm, what's the plural of emphasis? "plural emphases" Thanks, Google!

[Magister]

Fortunately various popular programming languages are making use of the surplus unused semicolons.

[LexAquilia]

lol good one

[Sarcastr0]

No one has mentioned the Bove whistleblower?
https://apnews.com/article/bove-justice-department-judge-nomination-trump-efea8c93ad892f1eb000321939a7283c

When asked if you ordered DoJ people to defy court orders and your response is "I do not recall" you absolutely did order that. That's not like what you had for dinner 2 weeks ago.

[Don Nico]

The is the best answer to Schiff regarding any of his badgering.

[SRG2]

Of course Bove issued such an order - that's why Trump nominates him and why the cultists support him. Dear Leader's commands have the force of law, any judicial command to the contrary notwithstanding.

[jb]

Wrong place

[Malika the Maiz]

“In exchange for helping President Trump carry out his deportation agenda, the United States paid El Salvador millions of dollars, adding an important sweetener at Mr. Bukele’s request: the return of key MS-13 leaders in American custody.

Officials from both countries have said the gang leaders are being sent back to face justice.

But the Trump administration has not acknowledged another reason Mr. Bukele would want them back: U.S. prosecutors have amassed substantial evidence of a corrupt pact between the Salvadoran government and some high-ranking MS-13 leaders, who they say agreed to drive down violence and bolster Mr. Bukele politically in exchange for cash and perks in jail, a New York Times investigation found.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/us/politics/trump-bukele-ms-13-immigrants.html

[Frank Drackman]

So it's a "Win-Win", thanks Queenie!

[Mr. Bumble]

Link is pay-walled.

[Riva]

I'm surprised he'd actually pay for a subscription. Could be he's a free trial? Or maybe he's mooching off a subscription paid for by someone else (probably even with taxpayer dollars)?

[Malika the Maiz]

Riva bot programmed to hate NYT after their anti-AI copyright lawsuit!

[Bob from Ohio]

"New York Times investigation found"

So a fantasy.

[darkknight9]

When did marrying a US citizen stop being a pass to live in the US?

I mean, that's what I remember from when I was a kid. Its the last time I thought of such things... but with Orange Julius Caesar nabbing married partners... what gives?

[Frank Drackman]

In Residency (Yes, I'm making this up Queenie) one of the Attendings had married an Italian Gas-Passer (it was the 90's so yes, an XX) she came reluctantly (Hey Now!) because she didn't speak-a that good-a English, and getting licensed in the US was a pain, he was constantly getting hassled by INS accusing her of marrying him for Citizenship (in their defense he was sort of a Putz)

[ThePublius]

Gee, Orange Julius. A stroll down memory lane. There was a Nedicks on Fordham Road in the Bronx when I was a kid. The sold their signature hot dogs, which were the best, and also Orange Julius, which is odd, considering Nedicks had their own orange drink. There was so much sugar in Orange Julius that it would rot your teeth and give you diabetes on the spot! I sure do miss that place.

[darkknight9]

The local mall wouldn't have been the same without one. 🙂

[ThePublius]

I actually really liked their non-carbonated orange drink (not the Orange Julius), and I thought their grilled hot dogs with their own mustard-relish were the best, even better than Nathans. And, it was all quite affordable, even for a kid.

[Poxigah146]

It was never a pass when the non-citizen seeking permanent residency by marriage was a criminal or otherwise unsuitable for residency in the United States.

[darkknight9]

Then all of the non criminal non trouble cases. The ones that are now grandparents n such. Or hell, newlyweds. Why is it different now?

[minus the clever name]

Not all made it to be grandparents or newlyweds. This is the fallacy of saying what happened had to happen.

[Moderation4ever]

Because the deportation program is not being run by common sense but rather by quotas. Quotas mean looking for the low hanging fruit and that why you see ICE going after the easy people to find. The promise was deporting criminals and the realities is it whoever they can find without working too hard.

[Swede425]

LOL!
Why shouldn't Trump go after the "easy people" while going after "criminals", too?
I know you're used to the last administration's open borders and their inability to close them without "further legislation", but apparently the current administration can do lots of things vis a vis illegal aliens and open borders that seem to have some people in a panic. Get over it.

[Malika the Maiz]

Lol indeed! Could it be because that’s what Trump said he’d do/be doing?

“President Trump is putting the safety of Americans first and delivering justice for victims of illegal aliens and drug cartels.”

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/04/29/100-days-making-america-safe-again#:~:text=President%20Trump%20is%20putting%20the,death%20or%20serious%20bodily%20injury.

[shawn_dude]

I knew a couple that wanted to marry, one of them an active duty service member (officer, even), and the other a Canadian. They had to jump through a lot of hoops to prove their marriage was real and not for the simple act of giving a green card to an immigrant.

I'm not a legal historian, but I believe this has been true for at least as long as I've been aware of such things; which is several decades.

[Michael P]

Jesse Singal's current newsletter addresses Zohran Mamdani's proposal for property tax changes, which I haven't seen discussed much elsewhere, except in demagogic terms. There's not enough detail to make a conclusive judgment, but I tend to agree with him that reducing regressivity in property tax is a good thing. One can debate whether property and income taxes should be flat or progressive, but they shouldn't be regressive. (Sales or consumption taxes should be flat rates, which turns out in practice to be slightly regressive by income.)

Most of that newsletter is about trans litigation and PR, largely rehashing what he's written on the topic recently, so only the first part (IMO) worth the time to read.

[Joe_dallas]

Sales tax and consumption taxes tend to both regressive from and income point and from a generational point. Younger generations spend more as a percentage of income with costs of households, raising families , etc. than older generations (age 50+).

[Poxigah146]

That's because boomers are lazy, entitled and greedy.

[Joe_dallas]

No - its because the younger generations including those with families have to spend a greater percentage of income on necessary living expenses than older generations.

[Sarcastr0]

This blame game here is stupid, reductive, and says a lot about MAGA's 'no improve, just blame and punish' mindset.

[Joe_dallas]

As usual from sarcastro - a stupid inane off topic snark comment

Let us know when you can contribute anything of substance

[jb]

The NYC property tax scheme is truly bizarre, not just in terms of its regressivity but its implementation. As you say, not enough details yet to have a serious conversation about Mamdani's plans, but just simplifying the process and making it more consistent would be a pretty big win.

[Bob from Ohio]

No home should pay property taxes. Its like you are renting from the state.

Commercial property including rentals and non-family farms can be taxed, but no one should have to sell their home because they can no longer pay.

[shawn_dude]

From a libertarian perspective (IANALibertarian), property taxes are a form of use tax where local residents fund local resources like roads and schools and fund local government.

"...no one should have to sell their home because they can no longer pay." And this is neither conservative or libertarian. It reads a bit to the left of centrist, even.

Good news, though! Many states have enacted laws to reduce the chances of this happening. Most states roll this into some sort of homestead exemption which caps increases in property taxes. California has its (in)famous Prop 13. I saw a home go up for sale near me a few weeks ago where the neighbor's homes were bought for over $1.3M and this home, which had a long-time resident who recently passed away, was evaluated for tax purposes at under $80K and being sold for about $800K. So despite their home having potentially 16 times the value they were taxed on, they were able to live there through the end of their life. But I live in California--land of the liberal. 😉 Glad you agree that this liberal policy is wise.

California property tax rate is 1%. Texas is 1.8%.

[Don Nico]

Your comment was the reason for the passage of CA prop 13 long ago.

[Moderation4ever]

For regular readers of this Reason who question why today's young people favor socialism, I would suggest looking at the recent Sánchez-Bezos wedding in Vienna. Looking at the display of wealth from the bride, the groom, and the guests make people wonder if capitalism is really the best economic system. I do support capitalism, but these display make it hard to argue for capitalism.

[Poxigah146]

I support capitalism. But what we have in America is not capitalism, but crony capitalism for Wall Street and big corporations. Amazon is a huge beneficiary of that crony capitalism.

[Sarcastr0]

Plenty of distortions in the system, but hot take: America is capitalist.

That you take your unhappiness with big business getting unfair advantage and support the king of relationship-based government largesse makes me question what your actual issue are.

[LexAquilia]

Why do you think its appropriate to question his motives?

Can you be a better person? Is it even possible for your kind?

[Malika the Maiz]

LexAquilia 4 hours ago
Flag Comment
Mute User
Tomorrow when you wake up, try saying this out loud when you place your feet on the ground.

"Today, I will try and be a better person and not a garbage human like I was yesterday".

Could you do that?

[Stephen Lathrop]

America is capitalist by choice, and by happenstance, not by law, nor by Constitutional decree. Americans remain free at all times to choose whatever economic system it may please them to rely upon, and to pass whatever laws the Congress judges necessary and proper to support the operation of any such system.

The Constitution decrees specific protections for private property. That is the limit of its systematic economic oversight. The Congress is otherwise empowered to regulate the national economy according to the jointly sovereign People's pleasure, as expressed in election results, or otherwise.

[Bob from Ohio]

"Amazon is a huge beneficiary of that crony capitalism."

How so? Be specific.

[LexAquilia]

In Socialism, the extreme displays of wealth come from the governing class instead of free peoples who tend to be pushed down into a single, miserable working class.

[Malika the Maiz]

This guy was hating on corporations and the stock market above.

Failures are all over the place with blame.

[SRG2]

Capitalism supplies people with an economic ladder; capitalists try to pull the ladder up behind them.

[Sarcastr0]

We really need to decide on a definition of socialism.

This is not a new issue - I was just listening to a podcast on Churchill's 'Gestopo speech.'

Are high benefits socialism?
Is lots of regulations socialism?
Or is socialism the people determining how to distribute?
Or is socialism when industry is all owned by the state?

Lot of games being played on who is socialist, and then changing the definition about what that means.

[LexAquilia]

It's the public ownership of the means of production.

That's the definition it's always been.

Idiots on the Left coopted public services to mean socialism, because they're stupid and they want to use that definition as a Trojan Horse for the real one.

Norway is not Socialism.
North Korea is Socialism.

Bernie Bros sell you Norway, while they will deliver North Korea.

Some science advisor you are that you don't even know this basic term. Good grief. No wonder you don't work in the private sector.

[Moderation4ever]

Your comment is right on the money. Most people supporting socialism point to Scandinavian countries in Europe which have strong social safety nets. Those people opposing socialism usually are point to North Korea, Cuba or China as examples. People first need to agree on a common country to truly compare socialism and capitalism.

[Magnus Pilatus, MBA, MD, JD, PhDx2]

Scandinavian model is capitalism with a social democracy.

Words matter. The truth matters.

[Bob from Ohio]

The wedding neither picked your pocket or broke your arm. Bezos could pay for it because he created a economic machine that everyone loves. Don't want him to have money, don't buy from him.

Think of the economic benefits to dressmakers, airlines, hotels, etc. and all the workers!

[shawn_dude]

I would look back to the 1920s in the US when the Gilded Age was ending, the average worker was destitute, and we were about to get the bill for all those robber baron parties--the Great Depression. And out of the Great Depression came fascism. It looks like we're repeating the mistakes of the past but just jumping ahead and aiming for fascist robber barons of the tech-bro variety.

[LexAquilia]

"As I understand the concern, in this clash over respective powers of two coordinate branches of Government, the majority sees a power grab -- but not by a presumably lawless Executive choosing to act in a manner that flouts the plain text of the Constitution. Instead, to the majority, the power-hungry actors are ... (wait for it) ... the district courts. ... And the majority thinks a so-called universal injunction..."

These are the writing of a partisan moron. Add in there her "full-stop" bit, should she be expelled from SCOTUS?

This is just a Bluesky rant by a radical dressed up by ChatGPT.

[LexAquilia]

How long before she starts putting emoji's in her opinions?

[MollyGodiva]

Now they are going after US citizens

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/30/trump-birthright-citizenship-naturalized-citizens

This is fascism.

[ThePublius]

That's a B.S. take on this. I read the Guardian piece and I find nothing at all fascist or nefarious about the reasons for denaturalizing and deporting these people.

"The memo, published on 11 June, calls on attorneys in the department to institute civil proceedings to revoke a person’s United States citizenship if an individual either “illegally procured” naturalization or procured naturalization by “concealment of a material fact or by willful misrepresentation”."

"The memo claims such efforts will focus on those who are involved “in the commission of war crimes, extrajudicial killings, or other serious human rights abuses … [and] naturalized criminals, gang members, or, indeed, any individuals convicted of crimes who pose an ongoing threat to the US”.

The directive gives justice department attorneys wider discretion on when to pursue denaturalization, including in instances of lying on immigration forms, cases where there is financial fraud or medical fraud against the US or against private individuals; and cases referred by a US attorney’s office or in connection with pending criminal charges."

You have a problem with that???

[MollyGodiva]

The memo does not specify that those crimes must happen before naturalization. Yes I do have a problem with revoking citizenship outside of a few narrow circumstances.

[ThePublius]

"The memo does not specify that those crimes must happen before naturalization."

These things are, by definition, before naturalization:

"“illegally procured” naturalization or procured naturalization by “concealment of a material fact or by willful misrepresentation”"

"lying on immigration forms"

[jb]

On the one hand, the instances I've seen where they are trying to take away people's citizenship don't strike me as super troubling.

On the other hand, we see this ongoing progression: first it's "we're going to deport the criminal illegal immigrants" then it's "we're going to deport the illegal immigrants" then it's "we're going to deport the immigrants" and now it's "we're going to deport the criminal naturalized citizens". I think it's reasonable to say that in January Trump had a reasonable mandate on immigration, but as policy has shifted farther and farther from campaign rhetoric, it's a lot harder to get behind the idea that this is what people voted for.

[shawn_dude]

Remember when we were told that Trump was only going to go after and deport violent criminals among the undocumented immigrants?

"...data from ICE indicating that less than 6 percent of ICE book-ins involved individuals with criminal convictions for violent offenses in early June. More than 90 percent of those booked by ICE were neither violent nor property crime offenders." --source CATO.org

So Trump sold us a lie and we fell for it.

Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me.

So yeah, I have a problem with that because I know it's just another bait and switch lie.

[Stephen Lathrop]

Trump has bruited a national citizenship database. Make no mistake. That announces a totalitarian future.

Any such database would be the voting equivalent of a national gun ownership database, but far worse. With no more than a bureaucratic, "error," any citizen could not only be disfranchised, but also deported.

Under American constitutionalism, the jointly sovereign People remain continuously superior to their governments. Allow the government power to say who is a citizen, and who not, and the government becomes overtly sovereign. The entire Constitutional order is turned upside down.

[ThePublius]

"Allow the government power to say who is a citizen, and who not, and the government becomes overtly sovereign."

What? Who but the government will say who's a citizen?

[apedad]

14A sez who's a citizen.

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.

[ThePublius]

Yes, but who evaluates each case and makes the determination?

[Swede425]

It doesn't matter.
The 14A clearly meant that any illegal that slid past our border like they were sliding into home base and squirted out a kid on the American side, was squirting out an American.
It was the ratifiers obvious intent.

[ThePublius]

That's bullshit, the 14A was fro the kids of former slaves, not anchor babies.

[Malika the Maiz]

Jesus, what an idiot.

[Frank Drackman]

"Subject to the jurisdiction??" so that excludes Invading Armies, Families of Diplomats, Illegal Aliens.....

[Malika the Maiz]

Look at the pathetic writer of the Frank Fakeman character write him getting all riled up here!

He should wrote something about the characters Georgia drive thru faves with Lots of Capitalization and )incorrect Punctuation!)

[JoeFromtheBronx]

The Constitution is the law of the land. It's a governmental act.

[M L]

A database of citizens? As far as I know, social security predates Trump.

[Frank Drackman]

So I'm guessing a Mayor Zoran Ramadan Mandami won't be giving Lizzy Savetsky a Citation like Mayor Eric Adams did?? Still think Sliwa's got the inside track, but 45/47/"48?" has a lot of favors he can do (and call for payback later) to get Adams re-erected

[JoeFromtheBronx]

Republicans used a new budget gimmick to obscure the cost of President Trump's $4 trillion tax and spending bill in a new attack on the Senate's filibuster rules.

Republicans aren't fiscally conservative.

The reason to vote for them is to own the libs, hate on immigrants, and various other social issues. Certain types of judges. Plus, generally, supporting Trump.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/big-beautiful-bill-parliamentarian_n_685ab68be4b0ede248bacb32?3lg

[Swede425]

LOL!
Can I vote for them for those reasons AND they're more fiscally conservative than the alternative?
Please and thank you.

[Michael P]

Lol, HuffPo. The "gimmick" known as counting based on current policy rather than an imagined counterfactual baseline.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

A bit of trivia from today's SCOTUS Order List.

The petition for rehearing is granted. The order entered June 24, 2024, denying the petition for a writ of certiorari is vacated. The petition for a writ of certiorari is granted. The judgment is vacated, and the case is remanded to the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit for further consideration in light of FCC v. Consumers’ Research, 606 U. S. ___ (2025).

When was the last time SCOTUS granted a petition for rehearing? The vacating of an order (6/24) just handed down suggests to me that they made a mistake, and this is a fix-it.

SCOTUS also took a notable campaign finance case involving a matter that the Trump Administration refused to defend. DNC was granted the right to intervene.

(Limits on the amount of money that political parties can spend in coordination with candidates)

[tylertusta]

As far as I'm aware, 2018 was the last time a Rule 44 motion was granted.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/080618zr_fj37.pdf

[Voize of Reazon]

The vacating of an order (6/24) just handed down suggests to me that they made a mistake, and this is a fix-it.

No, the story here is that the situation changed (a contrary ruling in another circuit created a split) 11 days into the 25-day window that Rule 44.2 provides to file a motion for rehearing.
You can read all about it in the petition.
Good work to get it done in the two weeks they had left.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

Okay, thanks.

I'll just admit it -- I skipped over the "2024." I thought it was "2025."

Looking at the docket page, the case was lingering for quite some time.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-402.html

[hobie]

Eliminating tax breaks and subsidies for wind and solar projects...I can understand that. But a new (punitive?) excise tax on wind and solar projects? Basically a kill shot to the industry.

WHY?!

[jb]

Gotta own the libs!

And raise electricity prices for a bunch of your voters while you're at it:

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/chart-which-us-states-generate-the-most-solar-and-wind-energy

[ThePublius]

You realize that the shift to so-called renewables always results in higher electricity prices?

[jb]

I don't realize that because it's wrong: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-renewables-bill-electricity-price-reliability-aurora/747121/

[ThePublius]

Ha, ha, that's funny. Texas has the highest electricity prices in the nation, due primarily to renewable adoption, which, by the way, has also significantly lowered grid reliability.

The piece you linked is entirely speculative. Meaning, it hasn't happened.

"Texas leads the nation in high electricity prices, a trend amplified by renewable energy growth, recent policy shifts under the Biden administration, and decisions by the Texas Legislature. With wholesale prices spiking 208% over the past three years, a growing population, and an aging infrastructure, Texans face unique challenges with the need for affordable, reliable energy."

New Research Shows Texas Has the Highest Electricity Costs in the Nation

[Brett Bellmore]

Apparently it only applies to the use of equipment manufactured by "prohibited foreign entities". So, the "why" is to keep us from being dependent on equipment sourced from, mostly, China.

Gee, I wonder why they'd be worried about that?

[hobie]

If that's the goal, then Walmart and Home Depot should be out of business too. 90% of what they sell comes from China. I think jb is more correct. This is just to kill a liberal pipe dream. As is often said; It's all about the cruelty.

[Brett Bellmore]

Yeah, that's a really convenient mode of reasoning: "Everything I advocate is kind, so any opposition to it must be motivated by cruelty."

Sure, an absurd fraction of what Walmart sells is from China. And I bet if you looked inside a Chinese 'smart' light bulb you'd find similar issues; Everything they sell that has more intelligence onboard than a piece of wire is generally compromised in some way.

So your complaint is that Walmart isn't being penalized enough for that? Drop a line to the administration, I'm sure you'll get a positive reception on that complaint.

[hobie]

You don't find it curious that one industry is being targeted with a tax that other similarly situated industries are not? Haven't you mask-hating patriots been all aghast at lawfare? So isn't this...I don't know...taxfare?

[LexAquilia]

Walmart knick knacks aren't critical infrastructure.

How could you not understand that?

[ThePublius]

Does anyone doubt that Zohran Mamdani is a socialist?

[hobie]

I think the man has been fairly clear on the issue. I lived in Portugal 10 years. Would you like me to explain to you how modern socialism works in practice? Perhaps then you wouldn't equate it with communism or whatever fear-based notions you currently have about it. You may be surprised.

[LexAquilia]

Why would living in Portugal make you some sort of expert on Socialism?

They have a capitalist economy, not a socialist one.

[jb]

He calls himself a democratic socialist, so at some level he obviously is some variation of a socialist. It would be reasonable to lump him in, policy-wise, with folks like AOC or Bernie Sanders who describe themselves similarly.

On the other hand, he's not advocating for the workers to seize the means of production so he's not a socialist as Marx understood the term.

[LexAquilia]

Yes he is.

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1939516740909621286

[JoeFromtheBronx]

The term "socialism" covers a lot of ground, and many things widely accepted today could fall under its ambit.

I don't find the term upsetting.

[ThePublius]

"he's not advocating for the workers to seize the means of production"

He certainly is!

His own words: "The end goal of seizing the means of production."

https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1939507833571246584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1939507833571246584%7Ctwgr%5E2b9b62021a6e99aecdc94a5ec43f8975a473a1da%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F729369%2F