The Volokh Conspiracy
Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent
1% Swing in Vote Would Have Changed Presidential, House Results
I expect this is obvious to most of our readers, but I thought I'd just flag it again, given the occasional talk of the decisiveness (or occasionally even "landslide" quality) of President-Elect Trump's victory: If 1% of voters nationwide switched from Trump to Harris,
- Harris would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (where the margin of victory was under 2%), thus winning the Electoral College 270 to 268.
- The House would likely have gone 220 to 215 Democrat, as opposed to the current expected tally of 221 to 214 Republican.
- The Senate would have still gone Republican by 52 to 48, as opposed to the current expected tally of 53 to 47.
The 312 to 226 Trump victory in the electoral college is obviously enough for victory in this particular election. But it's easy to imagine how even slight changes in public attitudes, or slightly more or less appealing candidates, could shift the results radically in 2028 or, in the House in 2026. (Of course, the 2026 results will likely also be influenced by the usual tendency of the party in power to lose ground in midterm elections, and by the difference between the makeup of the electorate in Presidential-election years and in non-Presidential-election years.)
The shift from 2020, and the demographic shifts among particular groups, are certainly noteworthy, and suggest there's some amount of realignment of various groups around the parties. The Democrats are also understandably shell-shocked at having lost to a candidate who had so many obvious political liabilities. But I think it's important both for Republicans and Democrats (and others) to appreciate just how closely divided the country is when it comes to national politics.
(I don't put much stock in discussions that just add together the votes needed to swing the swing states—15K in Wisconsin, 40K in Michigan, a bit more than 60K in Pennsylvania, for a total of under 120K—since it seems unlikely that some circumstance would have swung only those votes and not votes in other places. That's why I'm envisioning some broader trend that would swing 1% of voters nationally from one candidate to the other.)
