The Volokh Conspiracy
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Justice Gorsuch Again Argues: The Jury Trial Clause Requires 12-Person Juries in Serious Criminal Cases
From this morning's dissent by Justice Gorsuch from denial of certiorari in Cunningham v. Florida:
"For almost all of this Nation's history and centuries before that, the right to trial by jury for serious criminal offenses meant the right to a trial before 12 members of the community." Khorrami v. Arizona (2022) (Gorsuch, J., dissenting from denial of certiorari) Acutely concerned with individuals and their liberty, the framers of our Constitution sought to preserve this right for future generations. Yet today, a small number of States refuse to honor its promise. Consider this case: A Florida court sent Natoya Cunningham to prison for eight years on the say of just six people.
Florida does what the Constitution forbids because of us. In Williams v. Florida, this Court in 1970 issued a revolutionary decision approving for the first time the use of 6-member panels in criminal cases. In doing so, the Court turned its back on the original meaning of the Constitution, centuries of historical practice, and a "battery of this Court's precedents." Before Williams, this Court had said it was "not open to question" that a jury "should consist of twelve." Patton v. United States (1930). We had understood "the jury referred to in the original Constitution and in the Sixth Amendment is a jury constituted, as it was at common law, of twelve persons." Thompson v. Utah (1898). Really, given the history of the jury-trial right before Williams, it was nearly "unthinkable to suggest that the Sixth Amendment's right to a trial by jury is satisfied" by any lesser number.
Yet Williams made the unthinkable a reality. In doing so, it substituted bad social science for careful attention to the Constitution's original meaning. Pointing to academic studies, Williams tepidly predicted that 6-member panels would "probably" deliberate just as carefully as 12-member juries. But almost before the ink could dry on the Court's opinion, the social science studies on which it relied came under scrutiny. Soon, the Court was forced to acknowledge "empirical data" suggesting that, in fact, "smaller juries are less likely to foster effective group deliberation" and may not produce as reliable or accurate decisions as larger ones. All in all, Williams was an embarrassing mistake—"wrong the day it was decided."
Respectfully, we should have granted review in Ms. Cunningham's case to reconsider Williams. In the years since that decision, our cases have insisted, repeatedly, that the right to trial by jury should mean no less today, and afford no fewer protections for individual liberty, than it did at the Nation's founding. See, e.g., Apprendi v. New Jersey (2000); Ramos v. Louisiana (2020).
Repeatedly, too, our cases have warned of the dangers posed by the gradual "'erosion'" of the jury trial right. Yet when called upon today to address our own role in eroding that right, we decline to do so. Worse still, in the last two years we have now twice turned away thoughtful petitions asking us to correct our mistake in Williams.
If there are not yet four votes on this Court to take up the question whether Williams should be overruled, I can only hope someday there will be. In the meantime, nothing prevents the people of Florida and other affected States from revising their jury practices to ensure no government in this country may send a person to prison without the unanimous assent of 12 of his peers. If we will not presently shoulder the burden of correcting our own mistake, they have the power to do so. For, no less than this Court, the American people serve as guardians of our enduring Constitution.
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Well, here’s my chance to opine on a legal issue, because I was forman on a six person Florida jury. The crime? Running from a high speed chase in a stolen car, the defendent hit another automobile and killed the woman driving. There was no doubt of guilt, the only issue was picking the charge. An initial tally had us 3-3 on the two options, and we argued, argued, argued over the question. At one point we sought clarification from the judge, but he just sent back a terse “as I instructed” and that was that.
Eventually one side grew tired of arguing, and thus was the issue settled. I left with a feeling making justice is like making sausage – best appreciated from a distance. Six more jurors probably wouldn’t have added more clarity.
Wouldn't the number of jurors be analogous to sample sizing in testing? Too few samples and the results are probably not accurate; too many doesn't improve accuracy.
You're always looking for the Goldilock's "just right" and historically that has generally been 12 jurors.
There were 500 Athenians on the jury in Socrates's trial, but they killed him anyway. Maybe Socrates would have lived if there were only 6 (or 12) jurors.
I always thought they had juries of 400 in Athens.
Interesting comment (and possibly makes me reconsider my value judgement in the comment below). The social science on committee decision-making shows that you cannot simply treat it as equivalent to sampling because the decisions made by the jurors are not truly independent of each other. Juries are as subject to group-think and other cognitive biases of committees as everyone else.
There is a historical consensus that the optimal size team for effective decision-making is somewhere between five and twelve but the recent research is pushing strongly toward the lower end of that scale. See, for example, “Team Mental Models and Team Performance” by Klein, et al. (Jan 2006 Journal of Organizational Behavior).
On the other hand, a jury is also different from a business committee. In legal terms, the committee is trying to get to the "right" decision at a preponderance of evidence standard (50%+1). But a criminal jury is charged with "better 10 guilty escape than one innocent suffer" and a unanimity requirement. The odds of a single hold-out are presumably higher in a larger jury, making unanimity harder and the chance of a false positive (conviction) lower while making the chance of a false negative higher.
So, no, I don't think statistical sampling is the right analogy but I agree that we are always looking for that Goldilocks number - and the fact that we have traditionally used 12 as that number does not guarantee that it is so.
Does existing experience with twelve jurors count for anything?
If the question is "what is the optimal size", then not really. Until you compare 12 to other possible values, we don't know if that baseline really is ideal or whether we've just been copying the mistakes of our predecessors.
I don't know, but six angry men wouldn't be very interesting.
My only point (if there is one) is that 12 seems to have worked out well for most of our history.
The question you're asked as a juror isn't "is the defendant guilty," but whether the state has proved every element of the offense(s) charged beyond a reasonable doubt.
It sounds like the six of you argued about the wrong thing.
I think Gorsuch is right as a policy choice but I can't find anything in the Constitution to mandate that particular policy choice about jury size. Legislators are allowed to make bad choices - they make theim all the time.
Gorsuch is entirely right to argue that the FL legislature made a mistake and to lobby that legislature to reverse their mistake. I don't, however, see a legal basis to judicially overturn their mistake.
That's interesting, because my response is pretty much exactly the opposite: as far as I can tell, the 12 juror requirement is a complete historical accident, and nothing in my intuition or personal experience suggests that it's likely to produce better results than, say, 6 or 14. But (without having taken the time to do more than cursory research), I do think Gorsuch presents at least a modestly compelling case that it was considered a fundamental characteristic of the jury at the time of ratification.
"it was considered a fundamental characteristic of the jury at the time of ratification"
Probably true. But the text does not say "jury of 12". just jury.
Illustrates difference between "originalism"and "textualism".
But isn’t that evidence that 12 was considered a fundamental attribute of a jury? The didn’t feel they needed to clarify.
"didn’t feel they needed to clarify."
Then they goofed I guess.
Not stating in the 8th amendment what things are not cruel and unusual was also an invitation to meddling by later courts.
"Then they goofed I guess."
I guess it depends on whether or not a group of six people meets the definition of a jury under the sixth amendment.
Yet the Supreme Court was originally only 6 justices. If 12 was the magic number, why not start with 12?
Because the Supreme Court isn’t a jury? They didn’t provide for 12 senators or presidents either, for what I’d imagine are similar reasons.
It's more complex than that B from O:
Which Originalism are we talking about?
Actual Originalism
Framework Originalism
Intrinsicist Originalism
Instrumental Originalism
Liquidated Originalism
Original Intent
Original Meaning
Original Methods Originalism
Original Public Meaning
Semantic Originalism
Structuralism
Textualism
“Halfway Originalism”
Textualism is not originalism at all.
According to the (right leaning) Pacific Legal Foundation, "Textualism is a subset of originalism and was developed to avoid some of the messier implications of originalism as it was first described."
So take it up with them.
https://pacificlegal.org/originalism-vs-textualism-vs-living-constitutionalism/
"So take it up with them."
They are just wrong.
Yet falling back on “that’s what the text says!” to validate some heretofore unknown power of government that would never have been understood to be covered back in the day of approval, or worse, would have lead to being denied for addition, or heavily modified, is not a great situation, either.
The point of a written constitution is to create a functioning government while, at least for a free people who know history, stopping the power hungry from expanding their power at their whim. Re-interpreting a phrase to read new powers into it is not in the spirit of that.
Of course you can argue what they intended, but, as Abbot and Costello said, “Third base!”
Not at all. There's no dipsute that the task here is to give effect to the words in the text. The question is what the word in the text actually means. The jury trial requirement doesn't just mean that we have to use the label "jury" to describe the decisionmaker—that's why, for instance, the government can't just say that the "jury" consists of the judge who presided over the trial. And I think Gorsuch makes at least a plausible case (though again, that's based on a very cursory review of his authorities and I could certainly be persuaded otherwise) that having 12 people is one of those characteristics.
If Alito and Thomas meant what they said about "history and tradition," then they should have voted to hear the case. Likewise those who signed onto the opinions they authored in Dobbs and Bruen.
So having just 1 juror would be constitutional?
I was surprised to find that the provenance of 12 jurors was so cloudy.
A few minutes of internet sleuthing revealed:
1.) Some believe it’s origins go back to Medieval England where some King decreed it to be 12 based upon the 12 apostles.
2 ) Others believe it’s symbolism for the 12 Zodiac Signs or the 12 tribes of Israel.
3.) Some think it was a practical matter where 12 jurors was enough for diversity of thought yet still manageable.
Are there no studies on jury size? Why hasn’t some creative ambulance chaser tested the number 12 against some constitutional principles of justice and fairness?
If there is anything this blog likes -- aside from habitual publication of explicit racial slurs -- it is a lone wolf, right-wing dissent.
Do you think this blog likes your constant pissing and moaning?
Being a misanthrope, he doesn't care.
The Federalist Society clingers, superstition-addled bigots, and half-educated hayseeds? No.
The relatively few mainstream (modern, reasoning) readers? Yes.
But who knows? I will accept the verdict of the modern American marketplace of ideas, the culture war, and history.
How about you?
"I will accept the verdict of the modern American marketplace of ideas, the culture war, and history."
You haven't yet; why would you in the future?
Yes, those reactionary right wingers are notorious for the way they’re always clamoring for additional procedural protections for violent drug dealers and child molesters. Right out of central casting.
I hope this is more than Gorsuch freaking out over Trump's trials.
Maybe it is.
Since New York, Georgia, and the federal government all require 12 person jurors in felony cases, it's a little difficult to see what possible bearing this case could have had on Trump.
You're trying to bring reason and evidence to a discussion of right-wing freak-outs?
This could be Gorsuch's version of flying un-American flags.
I agree that finding clues of something sinister here makes about as much sense as seeing it in Justice Alito’s vexillological choices.
Of course. Clingers gonna cling.
So far as their betters permit.
This blog does, from time to time, actually blog about things having nothing to do with Trump or political battles.
Rev Artie is Trump Derangement Syndrome personified.
It doesn’t seem to me that the Constitution could possibly require that every jot and tittle of the common-law jury system must be frozen in amber and beyond legislative reach. What if a state wanted 15-person juries? What could be the objection other than that “It used to be twelve, dammit!”
But if that is so, it is hard to see where or how we stop short of anything goes. Is a six-person jury OK and a five-person jury not? Once a jury gets below a certain size, does it lose its character as a jury, and how would we know? Is a three-person jury essentially an arbitration panel? And what about unanimity?
There may have been a good argument at the time of Williams that we should stick with 12 because we don’t have a workable principle for deciding whether anything else is OK. But we have had long experience post-Williams, and nobody seems to be going off the deep end with experiments and nobody seems to have made a convincing case that, in practical terms, it changed anything. So why get worked up about it just because you think that if you were on the court 50 years ago you would have decided differently because you think you think you would have thought then what you think now?
According to the Supreme Court—the answer to your first question is yes, and the size it can't go below is six. See Ballew v. Georgia, 435 U.S. 223 (1978). I would concede that the answer to your second question is not, perhaps, as doctrinally-satisfying as it could be.
Indeed, the Supremes held that 6 is OK and 5 is not. The question is whether they had some kind of principled basis for saying so or just decided "enough is enough." I think they didn't, but as a practical matter I'm glad they came to the result they did. It put a stop to questionable experiments and left us in a situation that, as a practical matter, is probably satisfactory if not intellectually satisfying.
Prof. Volokh,
I've noticed that you don't generally don't include reporter citations in your posts here, to the point where you actually take the time to remove them from quotations where the appear in the original. Is there any particular reason? I don't think I've ever seen you discuss the practice.
The only criminal jury I was on was 6 members (+1 alternate), though I wouldn't call it a "serious" offense. It was in Lowell, MA in 1993. The defendant had had his driver's license suspended (for reasons unstated) and was then caught driving.
TECHNICALLY, under Massachusetts law, the license isn't actually suspended until he receives the notice of suspension in the mail, and he claimed he did not. The judge told us that we could take the fact that the DMV had mailed the notice as proof that he had received it, and none of us were comfortable with that. The fact that convicted him was that he had a girlfriend who worked in an insurance office and could look up whether the suspension had been issued. He had been asking her daily if it had, and after it was issued, he stopped. Why did he stop? I have no reasonable doubt that he stopped because he received the notice.
I have to say we all wondered how a case like this made it to court. The defendant must have insisted on his day there. I don't think a 12-member jury would have found differently.
Uh, how else did you think it might have it happened?
Re: why 12? let me suggest another possiblity. A regular Sanhedrin trial required 23 judges and a verdict was by simple majority. If you require an absolute majority, then a jury of 12 is consistent with a Sanhedrin simple majority. This may not be the actual reason, but so what ????
Some comments suggest a belief that the goal of a jury is to make the "right" decision in criminal cases.
However "beyond reasonable doubt" is a fuzzy standard in many cases so there's a lot of leeway on what decision is "right" and what is not.
It seems that a larger jury would be more "defendant friendly" in practice but if that makes it more "right" is unclear.
Since one person can cause a hung jury on one or more counts, the larger the jury the more likely there will be "that guy" who doesn't go along with the rest of the jury. It seems (and, admittedly, I have no actual data on this) that a hung jury, even 11-1, is more likely to result in the prosecutor giving up (esp. on "minor" cases or minor counts) or in a plea bargain which likely results in lesser punishment than than a jury finding of "guilty" would have.
I was "that guy" on one trial that took a few weeks. In that case I hung the jury on three of the six most serious counts while we found the defendant guilty on the other three. The other jury members spent about one day trying to get me to change my vote to no avail.
In talking to the prosecutor afterwards the difference in punishment was likely to be significant - "time served" for the three charges but quite substantial additional time if we had reached a guilty verdict on all six charges (the prosecutor was in a bit of a hurry so I didn't find out why this was the case). It's very, very doubtful the case was retried to seek a guilty verdict on the three charges we couldn't reach a decision on.
All six counts were effectively identical (six counts of spousal rape against the same person within a span of probably less than five minutes - each "penetration" being one count). IMHO it was ridiculous that this was charged as six distinct counts but I followed the jury instructions to the letter and didn't let my discomfort with multiple charges influence my vote.
The problem was that the victim, who testified through an interpreter, was the only witness. If I believed every word she said (post translation) I could only establish beyond reasonable doubt there were "three" penetrations - and that only because she testified that he went across the room twice during the sequence. The prosecutor simply didn't ask her detailed enough questions about the other times that "might or might not have been" a "penetration" - and the (translated) answers to those questions the prosecutor did ask were insufficient. I think the prosecutor was trying to spare the witness from giving details and was relying on us believing the defendant was such a lying scumbag (which he clearly was and confirmed with the idiot testified in his own defense which, as is usually the case, was a mistake as it cemented the "lying scumbag" view) that we should just vote guilty on all six counts. It didn't help matters that the definition of "penetration" was not included in the jury instructions (for example if for a period of time continuous contact with the outer labia is maintained, does that mean only one "penetration" occurred during that time, what about the inner labia, etc...).
A jury of six would likely not have had me on it. The prosecutor said that I was the juror that worried her the most. I think it was because one of the question asked during voir dire was something like
and every prospective juror (over 20) before me answered "No" and I answered "Yes" which resulted in a fairly long sidebar and then a follow up question to explain my answer to which I replied something like
. This seemed like a very reasonable response, yet the next 20+ jurors who were sitting in the gallery awaiting questioning and heard my response all responded "No" to the very same question - which surprised me.
Maybe situations like this is why it's rumored that in many criminal cases one side or the other doesn't want an "engineer" on the jury.
You care about logic and have an imagination. If a loved one--hopefully not a lying scumbag--was on trial, I'd hope for at least one jury member like you.
There used to be a technical term for a jury of 12: “jury.”
I’m curious about whether the DEI people are taking up the cause of restoring the number 12. Imagine a hypothetical community where a minority of the population are black. A jury of 12 would be more likely to have black members - and likely to have more black members - than a 6-person pseudo-jury.
'the DEI people.'
...have a great opportunity in front of them - to defend *real* trial by jury.
I'll accept any reasonable alternative phraseology if it will induce you to comment on the merits of the issue.
I don't find myself having a policy or factual position on this issue.
Only reason I posted was that 'DEI people' is certainly not a coherent group taking up causes behind the scenes.
Who on earth said anything about behind the scenes?
Or coherent, either?