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Pros and Cons of Conformism - Rejoinder to Bryan Caplan
Two libertarian experts on public ignorance continue a debate about conformism.

Back in January, I wrote a post inspired by economist Bryan Caplan's new book You Will Not Stampede Me: Essays on Non-Conformism (he summarizes its themes here). While I agree with much of Bryan's praise of nonconformism, I outlined three types of situations where conformism is often a useful heuristic: 1) social norms on issues you don't care much about, 2) deferring to the norms and traditions of institutions established by voluntary interactions in markets and civil society (as opposed to coercion), where people can "vote with their feet" and 3) deference to experts in situations where they are likely to have superior insight to that of laypeople. Bryan has now responded to these points. It turns out he largely agrees that conformism is often useful in these three situations. He just thinks they rarely arise. I believe they are more common than he supposes.
Here's Bryan on my point 1:
I agree in principle, but deny that they "come up often." Ilya's scenario requires that (a) other people around you care a lot about some issue even though (b) you barely care at all. But in any given society, there is a fairly short list of issues that others take very seriously. Given this high bar, how often will you coincidentally be indifferent or nearly so?
I don't think this scenario requires that "people around you care a lot." They need only care enough to impose some social sanctions on those who violate the norm in question. If you oppose the norm, but don't actually care much about it, conformism will often make good sense. I think situations like this come up all the time, particularly if you are a non-conformist who tends to question tradition and conventional wisdom.
For example, I was never convinced there was a good reason to switch from using "black" to using "African-American." But once the latter became the norm in academic and intellectual writings, I mostly followed it in my own work, because I didn't actually care much about this terminological question, and therefore concluded it wasn't worth alienating readers over. More recently, "black" (or "Black" with a capital B) has come back into vogue, and I have quietly shifted my own usage.
I feel a bit more strongly that "Latinx" is a bad term. Thus, in a forthcoming article on how foot voting can benefit Hispanics, I included a brief explanation of why I don't use it.
Bryan's response to my point 2:
Sure, but a key non-conformist insight is, "Don't fear to vote with your feet"! Foot voting works poorly if conformity is high….
If you're new to an institution and have little knowledge of how it works, "Wait and see" is good advice. Yet how often does this exception come up? Pace Hume, by the time you are an adult, your experience with familiar institutions is a good guide to unfamiliar institutions. What's true at GMU is basically true at UT. Caution might advise you to wait and see for a month. After you've waited and seen, though, why keep deferring to the same old silliness?
Foot voting can work well even if conformity is high. In that world, most people conform to the norms of whatever institution or group they are in. But they can still vote with their feet for groups with different norms.
On the other point, I think people often find themselves in new institutions, especially when - as in the modern world - we often switch jobs and even careers. Even if you stay in the same field your whole life, different employers in the same industry will sometimes have widely divergent institutional cultures.
Bryan on deference to experts:
In absolute terms, Ilya's position on experts is highly non-conformist. Don't trust experts if they have a… strong political bias, strong financial incentives to reach an approved answer, or stray outside of their area of expertise. Good advice, but it enjoins deep skepticism of almost all of the alleged experts on hot-button topics.
Whether my position is "highly non-conformist" depends on what you compare it to. It's non-conformist relative to "always defer to experts," but quite conformist compared to the increasing tendency (including in some libertarian circles) to deny deference to "establishment" experts across the board.
I would add that the issue of deference to experts isn't limited to "hot-button issues." It comes up all the time across a variety of decisions we make almost every day, when it comes to questions as varied as diet, medical care, investment decisions, education, and much else.
Finally, Bryan argues that intellectuals are already highly conformist, and therefore perhaps don't really need advice outlining where conformism can be beneficial:
I know intellectuals. Lots of intellectuals. Legions of intellectuals. The vast majority are highly conformist. They often hold views that are unpopular in the broader population, but only because they slavishly conform to their intellectual subculture.
It is indeed true that intellectuals are often conformist on issues that have high salience within their subculture. For example, left-wing intellectuals often rigidly conform to "woke" norms on issues of race and gender. But, even within the subculture, intellectuals strike me as more likely than the average person to disobey or ignore other, less salient social norms. This may be because intellectuals care less about such norms, or because they (like stereotypical nerds) tend to have relatively lower social skills. But the experience of twenty-five years in academic and intellectual circles leads me to conclude intellectuals are in fact less conformist on a variety of dimensions than the average person is.
That said, both my generalizations about intellectuals and Bryan's are based on conjectures from personal experience, rather than systematic evidence. To really resolve this issue, we would need systematic data. Perhaps survey data or experimental evidence could give us a better handle on how conformist intellectuals really are.
In sum, there is much to be said for various types of non-conformism. Though, I am less hostile to conformism than Bryan, I am much more sympathetic to non-conformism than the average person is. But the audience for this blog and many of my other writings, is disproportionately made up of academics, intellectuals, libertarians, and others who tend to be suspicious of conformism. That constituency sometimes could use a reminder of the reasons why conformism isn't all bad.
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As is customary, the Volokh Conspiracy omits the most accurate, natural, even obvious descriptor . . . conservative (or movement conservative).
Why are these clingers so afraid of that term? Cowardice? Defensiveness? Perceived strategic advantage? Innate disingenuousness?
And if you believe the target or largest audience of this blog includes intellectuals, you're a fucking idiot. Racists? Sure. Misogynists, transphobes, and superstitious gay-bashers? Obviously. Antisemites, Islamophobes, and immigrant-hating assholes? No doubt. Half-educated, deluded culture war casualties? Naturally. Antisocial, on-the-spectrum faux libertarians? Yes. But intellectuals? Libertarians? What the fuck is wrong with you?
Does Somin have any nonconformist views? Every post is just what I would expect, as he appears to slavishly conform to their intellectual subculture. Caplan has more nonconformist opinions.
Just take 6 popular views or opinons ,each with 3 different answers and ask yourself , what is the most non-conformist possibilty.
It would be going along with the crowd on every question, which virtually no one does. By the fundamental counting principle, the total number of ways of answering all the questions is the product of the numbers of ways for each question. So
3*3*3*3*3*3 = 3^6 = 729
The greatest non-conformist would in effect be the most conforming person.
Nooooh !
EVERYONE answering the 6 questions will be landing on one of the 729 sets of possible answer combos. There’s nothing special about Mr Conformist there. What is relevant is the probability of each answer combo.
Let us assume that each question has the three possible answers A, B and C with popularity 50%, 30% and 20% respectively. (We could do it with different percentages for the answers to each question but that would just complicate the arithmetic, it wouldn’t change the conclusion.)
Thus Mr Conformist’s answer combo has a probability of 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 1.5625% or 1 in 64. Not very high. But it’s still the most likely answer combo.
All the other 728 answer combos have lower probability – for example Mr Dissenter who always picks the 20% answer, his answer combo has a probability of 0.0064% or 1 in 15,625.
The point is that, yes, Mr Conformist’s answer combo is unlikely – ie 1 in 64 – but it’s only unlikely in comparison with all the other possibilities added together – ie 63 in 64. But no one person could have all the other possiblilities put together – you can only have one. And as we see Mr Conformist’s answer combo is more than 200 times as likely as Mr Dissenter’s – ie in a population of 300 million, there are nudging up towards 5 million Mr Conformists and only about 20,000 Mr Dissenters.
These sums are done on the basis that the answer given to each question is independent of the answer given to any other question.
That is to say your opinion on whether Trump is an insurrectionist scoundrel, is independent of your opinion on whether Justice Sotomayor is a good judge. In reality that is most unlikely. Not only are humans, in fact, a species of sheep, but there may also be common assumptions, values and arguments that lead to people clustering round particular answers on a semi-rational basis.
In short Mr Conformists are much more than 1 in 64 probabilities.
Anyone who counsels others to non-conform just so they can say they are not going along with the crowd is a fool. You just followed the 'advice' of one man, not even a crowd. you have no soul.
"Intellectuals meet with other intellectuals to speak another language." They meet at La Maisonette restaurant. They give you the price.
Seeing conformism and nonconformism as useful tools is also helpful because in a pluralist society, a behavior might be conformist in one situation and nonconformist in another, so we’re constantly making decisions about how much or little to conform.
I think it’s useful, because frankly the most obnoxious and dangerous people in America are those who act as if nonconformism or conformism are absolutes or virtues in and of themselves.
I appreciate the take and the dialogue!
This is maybe the fault in the mesotes theory of Aristotle,that if you can't tell what to do unless you consult the extremes (so as to maybe always take the middle way) you will have no real idea of the good. You will be the man of no real passion when passion is what is required.So right now we have 2 lazy and stupid people in high office, only something extreme is appropriate for a man that talks about a railroad across the Pacific to India.
I conform. Instinctively I read the room and tend to go with it. It’s been very good or me but less so for society.
So I like to enable and work with nonconformists. Help make their new ideas happen. They think outside the box, I navigate well within the box.
My default tendency is to be a shit-stirrer. I think it tends to provoke better, more informative and enlightening exchanges.
In your case it provably does not. Haven't you noticed. It provokes but not better....it is not informative, it is provoking...and there is no exchange with a person too cowardly or dumb to have an opinion,like normal people do.
Currentsitguy, you want informative and enlightening exchanges? Try deadpan, open-ended questions which let the discussion go in whatever direction your counter-party prefers.
Don't trust experts if they have a show strong political bias, strong financial incentives to reach an approved answer, or stray outside of their area of expertise.
It's not clear to me whether this Caplan's opinion or Somin's. Regardless, it's bad, or rather incomplete, advice.
In the first case the implication is that strong political views show bias, rather than stemming from knowledge. Maybe the expert shows what looks like bias precisely because he is an expert and knows that one side is right and the other wrong.
In case 2, you have to evaluate the expert's integrity, though I agree that it is wise to be suspicious of well-compensated opinions.
Case 3 is easiest. The alleged expert is not an expert at all. Don't go see the best physician you can find to get help with a legal problem.
It's from Caplan. I agree with you, but I think that he just didn't edit the first point well (there's an obvious extra word word). I suspect, given Caplan, that it's intended to be more about partisan/chauvinistic bias.
I don't think you are correct to distinguish between case 1 and case 2 as you do. Both strong political views and well compensated opinions are red flags, warning you that the "expert opinion" needs to be evaluated as possibly untrustworthy. But as you say in the case of political opinions, an expert who is well lubricated with cash for his opinion, may nevertheless expertly believe in what he is being paid to say.
I read about a case, I think within the last couple of years in which a Prof, possibly a Nobel Prize Winner, was the subject of a sting. May well have been a "climate change denier" Prof being offered a non trivial lump of cash to write a (non conforming) piece about climate change. He replied that he'd be happy to do it for free, but was pressed to accept the money, so he said, Ok whatev. Turned out the people asking him for the piece were anti climate-change-denier folk hoping to get him in a Gotcha about "payment-for-opinions."
But the sting was a bit of of a damp squib - when it turned out he'd given the "bribe" to charity as soon as he received it.
Good point, Lee.
“the experience of twenty-five years in academic and intellectual circles leads me to conclude intellectuals are in fact less conformist on a variety of dimensions than the average person is”
If you have spent twenty-five years in “academic and intellectual circles” how do you know how non-conformist the average person is? Average people (assuming you mean non-academics) are often a mishmash of seemingly-contradictory ideas, just like academics. They have different norms to conform to and you are unlikely to understand those norms or how they conform, transgress, or subvert them.
Anyone who speaks or writes in a way comprehensible to others does so only by being a massive conformist. The fact that Bryan Caplan’s book used letters confroming to the conventions of the English alphabet, arranged in a manner to form conventional words, which were in turn arranged to conform to conventional grammar and syntax illustrates, by itself, that Mr. Caplan’s bluster about being a non-conformist is complete bullshit.
A Martian evaluating Mr. Caplan’s book would have no trouble finding its choice and arrangement of symbols and spacing extremely similar to books by other members of his species and society, so similar as to make any differences completely trivial in comparison.
Academic banter is so tedious.