The Volokh Conspiracy
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Attending Oral Argument in Trump v. Anderson
Not exactly what I expected, but a very rewarding experience.
As regular readers will know, Seth Barrett Tillman and I have spent untold hours over the past six months, and really past three years, on Section 3. But when I walked into the Supreme Court this morning, I felt a sense of closure. All of the arguments that had to be made were made--Seth and I were up till about 10:30 pm last night, working in person (for once) on a final post. Now, the only thing left to do was sit back, relax, and hear what the Justices had to say.
The arguments did not go exactly as I expected, but it was a very rewarding experience. And I suspect that Trump will win big league. Here are my immediate reactions, made based on my hand-scrawled notes. (I may write more when the transcript is released.)
Griffin's Case, which was barely mentioned in Petitioner's opening brief, occupied a lot of the argument. Our amicus brief and article led off with Griffin's Case. We've always seen this decision as a key ground of resolving the case. Justice Kavanaugh referred to the status of Griffin's Case as "liquidated" in light of Federalist 37. Tillman and I made that point expressly in our brief at p. 5.
Although not binding, courts at all levels have seen Griffin's Case as persuasive. Griffin's Case has settled the meaning of Section 3. See Federalist No. 37 (Madison) (discussing liquidation).
If the Court adopts Griffin's Case, the sword/shield dichotomy that Tillman and I advanced will be useful. The dichotomy helps to reconcile Griffin's Case with the Case of Jefferson Davis. Our brief stated at page 9:
Finally, it is these "two distinct senses of self-execution" which "reconciled in a principled manner" Griffin's Case and Chase's decision in the Case of Jefferson Davis. See Co.Sup.Ct.¶299 (Samour, J., dissenting) (citing Blackman & Tillman, supra, at 484–505).
Jonathan Mitchell acknowledged this tension between Griffin's Case and the Case of Jefferson Davis in response to Justice Sotomayor, but did not attempt to reconcile it. Moreover, that dichotomy helps to explain the direct appeal/collateral challenge question that Justice Barrett raised. The Constitution can always be raised as a defense on direct appeal. But the Constitution can only be used as a sword with a cause of action for a collateral challenge. (Our motion for leave to participate in oral argument identified the sword/shield distinction as one where we were not on the same page as the Petitioner).
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was the most interested questioner on whether the presidency was an "Office under the United States." She alluded to Kurt Lash's important research. Jonathan Mitchell pushed back against that argument, fearful of what it would mean for the Foreign Emoluments Clause. That must have been Mitchell's strategy going into the Court, but he could have pivoted when he heard Jackson's repeated entreaties. At times it seemed like Jackson was Trump's lawyer and Mitchell was Colorado's lawyer. (Our motion for leave to participate in oral argument identified this as another area where we were not on the same page as the Petitioner).
Justice Gorsuch was the most interested questioner on whether the President was an "Officer of the United States."He asked about the Commissions Clause in particular. He also inquired several times about our the Speaker and the Incompatibility Clause--a point Tillman and I have advanced. He suggested that the Blackman-Tillman position may be "odd," but it is what the text says. The citations to Bostock in our brief reflected this approach. Justice Sotomayor (I am almost certain) referred to us as "some scholars." Justice Kagan interrupted Justice Jackson, and joked about that "officer stuff." The Chief smiled. I'll take it.
After we left the Court, Seth and I took what I imagine will be a Dewey-defeats-Truman photo.
Stay tuned.
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Someone should do a wellness check on Baude and the other dude.
Baude will be fine.
Luttig and Tribe need to have their blood pressures checked.
"Baude will be fine. "
Hopefully he had no judicial aspirations.
I doubt it.
He's also only 42 years old: he'll still be around for appointment in another Republican administration (if we ever get one of those again).
"another Republican administration"
You think Trump will nominate him then?
Baude got his name dropped. I feel like that counts for something.
I don't know why we are assuming Baude wants a judicial appointment or is obsessed with the prestige or clout from his work being endorsed by courts. Maybe he just likes being an academic, is glad his work is having an impact, and will be consoled by the fact he believes his scholarship is well-founded no matter what the Court ultimately does.
I'm more thinking about the tear that Josh shed on the floor of the courtroom at that moment.
Bob from Ohio expects Trump to win.
Bob from Ohio also expects a rapture, a reversal of the culture war, and bigotry and superstition to make huge comebacks in modern America.
“another Republican administration” So, not a Trump administration.
I’d be satisfied with the return within my lifetime of a thoughtful, rational conservative party but that means not Trump and, since every elected (or office-seeking) Republican must now either be/pretend to be a cynical power-seeking user or just plain stupid, it means not the GOP.
But Baude’s likely to live 20-30 years longer than me, so maybe he’ll see it.
LMAO. Ivory tower legal scholars will be throwing hissy fits about this for the next fifty years.
Dorks, you look like Dorks
Actually if you had a dude with Josh's hair and Seth's beard, he would be Jerry Garcia.
I'm glad that Blackman decided to apply Brylcreem rather than just wearing a dry and wildly fro.
Didn’t Blackman believe Congress’ impeachment/removal power was limited?? If one believes that then the body of the Constitution has to have limitations on presidential power because we don’t have a president with unlimited power. Now if Congress has no limitations on impeachment then the body of the Constitution doesn’t have to have other limitations on presidential powers.
Speaking of dry and wildly fro . . . cryptoboy takes no backseat
Not Brylcreem…Jheri-Curl.
I think Josh and Seth were sitting there and watching the Court debate their position with smiles on their faces. Not every law professor gets to have Supreme Court Justices debate their legal theory (favorably!)
So, I wasn't able to listen to the entire oral argument, I might have missed something.
Rick Hasen has published this at Slate:
A Grand Bargain Is Emerging in the Supreme Court’s Trump Cases, but Chaos May Be Ahead
After oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Trump v. Anderson, a grand bargain that appears to make practical sense as a compromise is beginning to come into view: The Supreme Court unanimously, or nearly so, holds that Colorado does not have the power to remove Donald Trump from the ballot, but in a separate case it rejects his immunity argument and makes Trump go on trial this spring or summer on federal election subversion charges."
Is this just a reference to the lower court rejection of Trump's immunity claim, or did the subject of election subversion come up during the oral argument? I don't see a linkage.
I do agree that it is VERY unlikely the Court hands Trump a win on his immunity claim. It was an absurd claim which has been comprehensively disposed of. I suspect the Court won't even take the case, just summarily affirm to head off circuit splits.
But, of course, such a conviction wouldn't disqualify Trump.
Hey, maybe we'll finally find out if Presidents can pardon themselves!
No, I don't think we're seeing a 'grand bargain' at work.
I think Hasen is trying to cope.
Agreed. Hasen presents no evidence tying the 14th Amendment case to the unrelated immunity case (which I agree Trump is likely to lose, though SCOTUS may grant cert to narrow the DC Circuit opinion). Sounds a lot like wishcasting on Hasen's part.
Mr. Mitchell, Trump's lawyer at SCOTUS, brought up immunity in response to a hypo from one of the justices. He said it was still Trump's position that he has immunity from any criminal charges.
We have plenty of time to send out an amendment forbidding presidents from pardoning themselves.
Why wait for a moment of stupidity and then start arguing?
This has been a potential problem for a hell of a long time.
I guess we have more raging around in store, facetious acting classes feigning our correctness eternal, to git 'im!
But as soon as the Democrats actually get behind an amendment capable of being ratified, their only semi-plausible argument for living constitutionalism, that it's impossible to amend the Constitution through Article V, goes up in smoke.
Hey now, let's give them credit. They're fully capable of holding two contradictory beliefs at the same time.
After all, they've been trying to shove the ERA down the nation's throats for the past fifty years.
"Living constitutionalism," Brett's favorite straw man. That poor thing has been whipped into oblivion.
Very disappointing. SCOTUS was looking for some technicality to give them an out and this cases is too important for that. They need to make a ruling on the merits soon so the election can move forward with firm knowledge that Trump is or is not eligible.
Oh, I thought we all agreed that SCOTUS was going to be desperate to find a technicality to escape through.
Actually that was the most notable takeaway from the arguments for me: they were even more desperate than I thought not to touch the merits! I don’t know how many times I heard disclaimers from the justices about how they didn’t intend to be opining on anything that might go to the merits. This from justices who use their time at oral arguments, in typical cases, primarily to opine about the merits.
They can’t afford to touch the merits, without addressing the Due Process (DP) issues. You may be happy with the Due Process provided, but many, if not most, Republicans disagree, and many see the CO hearings as a kangaroo court. The CO SC thought that the trial court provided sufficient DP, but got there by minimizing the interests of the stakeholders involved. CJ Roberts, in the past, has been skeptical about that sort of minimizing DP by ignoring the interests of other large stakeholders. In order to address the merits, the US SC would have to accept that the Due Process provided to get to those merits were sufficient. Not only that, if found insufficient, they would then have to lay out what interests were material, and how much DP was due for those interests. As I said, very messy. Far easier to reverse on more technical grounds.
The facts at hand are undisputed. SCOTUS would only have to rule on the law.
They did touch a little whether the "expert" witness could qualify under Daubert. But they really didn't get into it much because the consensus seemed to be the Colorado courts weren't competent to make a decision with national implications.
The "facts" determined by the Colorado courts are likely to be lost "like tears in the rain", washed away when the decision is vacated and dismissed.
I was surprised at the shallowness of the discussion, in all honesty. I thought a lot of the discussion here was a lot more thorough and interesting. None of the justices seemed in the mood to question Mr. Mitchell much, even though I thought some of things he said were very questionable. He is a very good advocate, though. Can really think and respond on his feet.
.
Many, if not most, Republicans are half-educated, childishly superstitious, disaffected, roundly bigoted culture war casualties prone to delusion.
And most liberals are disgusting perverts.
Is that your silly superstition talking, clinger?
Are you genuinely dumb enough to believe that fairy tales are true . . . truly gullible enough to fall for a bunch of childish superstition . . . or is that just an act that attempts to protect your credibility among the other gape-jawed losers inhabiting your stretch of drawling, can't-keep-up America?
This from justices who use their time at oral arguments, in typical cases, primarily to opine about the merits.
I think the opposite is true: the court spends most of its time in its cases talking about things like standing, process, and standards of review.
They can’t afford to touch the merits, without addressing the Due Process (DP) issues. You may be happy with the Due Process provided, but many, if not most, Republicans disagree, and many see the CO hearings as a kangaroo court. The CO SC thought that the trial court provided sufficient DP, but got there by minimizing the interests of the stakeholders involved. CJ Roberts, in the past, has been skeptical about that sort of minimizing DP by ignoring the interests of other large stakeholders. In order to address the merits, the US SC would have to accept that the Due Process provided to get to those merits were sufficient. Not only that, if found insufficient, they would then have to lay out what interests were material, and how much DP was due for those interests. As I said, very messy. Far easier to reverse on more technical grounds.
It would also be inappropriate for the court to reach the merits if there's a procedural issue that resolves the matter.
That's what judicial restraint is.
I don't think recognizing Griffin as "fully liquidated" and binding precedent is a technicality. If the "officers" question is resolved then both counsels conceded that 2383 would disqualify a candidate if convicted.
The picture seems inconsistent with the narrative. If the Court relies on Griffin's Case, it will not reach the question of whether Trump's violation of the 14th Amendment was clear (or unclear or non-existent). So Judge Luttig won't be vindicated, but it's not clear that his view will be rejected.
"And I suspect that Trump will win big league."
Uh .... c'mon. You're better than this, right? Right?
But yes, based on oral arguments, it looks as if the Supreme Court will definitely punt this case in Trump's favor. The major questions are (1) how, (2) whether it will be a splintered opinion, and (3) whether the Court will make a ruling in a dispositive fashion that will end all this litigation with finality.
For everyone's sake, I hope that the answers are (1) something something but not the stupid officer argument (maybe put in the purview of Congress to make the determination), (2) probably not, given the stakes I think something will command at least 5 votes, and (3) please.
(1) something something but not the stupid officer argument (maybe put in the purview of Congress to make the determination),
It's not stupid, it's the clear meaning of the text, and it adheres closely with the intent of the 14th amendment, and Sec 3.
None of the Justices challenged "Officer" defense.
None of them really embraced it, either. The lack of questions on it was indicative of the desire of the judges to not engage.
Because it's a stupid and ahistorical argument.
The only person who really bit at it was Jackson, by the way, and it wasn't the Blackman version- it was the Lessig version of the argument. Don't get me wrong- I think Lessig is incorrect as well, but at least his idea is plausible, if not supported by contemporary sources.
Jackson clearly seemed to embrace it. She sounded like she was definitely advocating for it.
Unlike the "super-secret decoder ring" version of the argument proposed by Blackman/Tillman, the Lessig version at least ties into a the policy rationale that the Court is looking for.
Because this is a pure policy decision.
Or, it could be because the rest of the Justices don’t see any problems with it. Still, from a policy point of view, I think that the Not Self Executing theory is preferable as grounds to reverse, because it cuts the states off at the knees in trying to impose their own election qualifications - § 5 would be superfluous if the 14A were self executing. Only Congress can determine the requirements for Insurrection (or giving aid or comfort to enemies, in the case of Biden). For national elections, in particular, we need national standards. Etc.
No; that's incredibly wrong. We know the 14A is self-executing. What you want is for only Section 3 to not be self-executing, but there is no textual support for making Section 3 any different than Section 1 or Section 2.
And of course the states are not "imposing their own election qualifications." They're enforcing the election qualifications imposed by the Constitution itself.
It's not so much "not self-executing" as "not self-executing once there is enabling legislation, which occupies the field".
Without either the Constitution or the statute saying so.
Just magic words.
Magic words like the ones that say Section 3 can be enforced by state civil actions? Which I note are also invisible.
14A is all about that. Section 3 type language similarly.
And how do we know that the14A is self executing? Because I am a liar? Recently, that seems to be your arguments against most of what I say here. Maybe some cites might be in order here.
Your position seems to be under some assault, given the oral arguments (now) yesterday. The general consensus seems to be that most of the Justices, if not all, will vote to reverse, primarily on a closely related theory, probably something along the lines that § 5 provides that Congress can enact legislation to enforce the 14A, and § 3 provides that they can also remove § 3 disabilities, which preempts states (by occupying the field?) from operating in this space (esp here § 3), unless authorized by Congress. They apparently did so in the past, in reference to § 3, and that legislation is no longer in effect. Moreover, Congress has defined “Insurrection”, in the criminal statutes already.
loki13, was there a particular exchange during oral argument that you recall - either persuasive or unpersuasive? Was there a pivotal moment for you?
Are you liking my "Federal insurrection law IS Section 3 enabling legislation, convict him or give up." solution any better? As punts go it has a lot of virtues.
If Griffin is the precedent (which it seems clear from oral argument that the Justices thought it very influential)
That was Mr. Mitchell's position, but I didn't really get the sense that the justices were supporting it actively. They just didn't question it much. Perhaps that amounts to the same thing.
Although I think you guys are ultimately wrong, you made the best arguments. One silver lining of my side losing this case is that your stock will go up in the world.
Blackman is wrong about all of the impeachment stuff but he is correct in this instance. But the crafters of the 14A clearly believed the Electoral College wasn’t a rubber stamp and so the EC could refuse to elect Jefferson Davis as president even if he won the underlying election.
I don’t need to read any further analysis. It’s like hearing boxing analysts predicting the outcome of a fight in the small space between the end of the fight and the announcement of the verdict.
I haven’t watched one Super Bowl speculation show...remember before streaming when you had to watch crap because nothing else was on??
Jackson was surprising, she seemed to think it was a slam dunk that Section 3 doesn't cover the President.
Kagan, Kavanaugh, and Alito, and then Thomas questioning the Respondents attorney seemed very receptive to the argument I've been making that Section 3 and Section 5 limit the application of section 3 to procedures laid out by Congress, especially federal officers.
The Respondents also spend a lot of time on ReaderY's theory: "can uphold the Colorado Supreme Court decision on grounds that Colorado has the power to make its own decisions about whether to disqualify Mr. Trump". It was rough sledding.
The Senate exists and the Senate has the ability to pecker slap the president as McConnell showed when he pecker slapped Obama and Garland.
"The Respondents also spend a lot of time on ReaderY’s theory: “can uphold the Colorado Supreme Court decision on grounds that Colorado has the power to make its own decisions about whether to disqualify Mr. Trump”. It was rough sledding."
I don't think that as a matter of law, this was a bad choice to center the argument. Honestly, if this was just about the law, I think it's probably the correct (or, at least, the "most correct") interpretation.
But this isn't about the law, it's about the policy. And while this Court has repeatedly stated that they don't care about outcomes when it comes to policies that they favor, I do think that in this case, the idea of having 50 different standards for candidates for a national race, regardless of what the law "might be," was a bridge too far.
I also think that deciding the case based on the Not An Officer and/or Not Self Executing will allow the Court to skip addressing the messy Due Process issues.
Not An Officer is better in that it also prevents states from going it alone, and more importantly, binds Congress on Jan 6.
I think Jackson's going to push hard for that outcome, and will probably be able to find four other justices to sign on. Nobody seemed really against that argument.
Except that Not Self Executing cuts states off at the knees.
Not necessarily from the states' perspective. This is the whole "Colorado has the power to make its own decisions under the Electors Clause" line. It's hard for SCOTUS to say
You're not allowed to even read the Constitution, Colorado!
It's much easier to sayHere's what "officer of the United States" means in the US Constitution
in a way that's binding on Colorado.Not Self Executing does a lot more than that, it undercuts a whole lot of previous Fourteenth Amendment enforcement. Unless they are going to find some way to apply it to section 3 and not the rest of the amendment. It seems like a problematic way to go, I think maybe Bruce is right and they will buy the "Not an Officer" argument. I would characterize that as ridiculous and wrong, but practical in the sense that it does the least amount of damage.
Its not hard to differentiate between Section 3 and the rest of the 14th because Chase did all the work on that in Griffen. Obviously making that argument without Griffin would fall flat as Mitchell straight out said in response to Kagan:
MR. MITCHELL: So in just as a matter of first principles without Griffin's Case, it's a much harder argument for us to make because, normally, I mean, every other provision of the Fourteenth Amendment has been treated as self-executing.
You keep saying this is about policy, not the law. I guess that's how you cope with not getting your way, trying to discredit the looming result.
Whatever they decide, if it includes avoiding conflicting state level decisions about disqualification, that's not merely policy, it's about ensuring a rational legal outcome. Because it's perfectly reasonable to interpret section 3 in light of section 5 assigning legislative authority to Congress. Self execution is not self evident
Did you see the exchange between Alito and Murray where Murray concedes under his theory the Legislature can pass a law three days before the election assigning Colorado's electoral votes to Biden because Trump is ahead in the polls?
That's hardly a viable path to victory.
The voters' and Trump's lawyers were both really terrible. Especially the voters'. The Colorado SG was better.
If your argument is that states should have the power, then you need to be willing to say that it's ok if different states come to different decisions. He kept resisting that with dumb hopes that that wouldn't come to pass for one reason or another. It seemed like he hadn't thought through any of the questions that might come up.
I think that if Colorado actually loses J Jackson here, it’s a major defeat. Going in, I was figuring 6-3, with CJ Roberts joining his Republican colleagues to control the writing of the opinion. Maybe they could pick up J Kagan, esp with Roberts controlling the opinion. But 9-0? Even with a somewhat splintered Court, that would be a major upset.
Why do you think the liberal justices would want to keep Trump off the ballot? They’re the most incentivized to overturn Colorado from a political calculus perspective.
From a purely voters-rights perspective, the liberals are also much more predisposed than the conservatives to be against disqualification on general principles.
From a states’ rights perspective, the liberals are also predisposed to be against Colorado relative to the conservatives. Remember the whole Independent State Legislature brouhaha?
There’s really not much here for the liberals other than anti-Trump schadenfreude, but no one on the court other than Alito is that shallow.
You could at least recognize that Democrats disagree over whether the pragmatic thing is to have him on the ballot on the assumption he's hilariously doomed, (In spite of leading in the polls, of course...) or whether the safe thing is to keep him off the ballot because any chance of him being elected is too much chance. With the latter reenforced by the virtue signaling arms race in denouncing Trump.
What do you expect from a state with faggot tech Jew as a governor?
David Bernstein, Eugene Volokh, Josh Blackman, and the other disingenuous law professors (for a couple of more months) at this right-wing blog who rail about (perceived) antisemitism among liberals and libertarians will issue a pass to you, zbidim . . . because that's the way these lying, partisan losers roll with respect to their fellow wingnuts.
Carry on, clingers. So far as better Americans permit, that is.
Just mute him, like the rest of us do.
I was wondering why I was seeing his comments, then realized that I wasn’t signed on. Did so, and, miraculously, his comments disappeared.
As many have noted, the questions from Justice Jackson were possibly the most surprising. This could very possibly be a 9-0 decision in favor of Trump. The trick could be agreeing on the reason. I think Chief Justice Roberts would very much prefer for the Court to issue a unified opinion as opposed to a fractured one with two or three concurrences.
My question: Can SCOTUS issue a narrow per curiam decision here? Per this case (whatever case they would use), the POTUS is not an officer under the US constitution and CO erred in removing him from the ballot.
And never have to get into any reasoning beyond that. Perhaps that might be the wisest course; a 9-0 per curiam.
The American people can solve this political problem at the ballot box.
So whose responsibility is it to disqualify Jefferson Davis from running for president??
Yeah, what about Dingell-Norwood?
What about dingleberries??
Jackson and Gorsuch seemed interested in some version of the "not an 'officer of the United States'" theory -- but none of the other justices idicated an appetite for it.
The most likely result is a 9-0 or 8-1 decision holding that neither Section 3 nor any other constitutional provision gives states the power to determine that candidates for federal office are disqualified or to remove them from the ballot. Maybe 2 or 3 justices will separtely concur. But the Court's ruling limiting state power will be clear and broadly supported by the justices.
The interesting question at this point is whether the majority opinion will address any other matters. Given how much debate there has been over whether Section 3 applies to the presidency at all, it would be nice for the Court to now reject the notion that the President is not an "officer of the United States." But they could rule without addressing this issue.
" it would be nice for the Court to now reject the notion that the President is not an “officer of the United States.”"
If you were paying attention, it seemed very unlikely there would be 5 votes for that proposition. I think if they rule on that subject the result would be quite the opposite.
The even more narrow ruling...S3 applies when holding office, not running for office. CO cannot remove someone for federal office from the ballot because Congress can remove any disability with a 2/3rds vote when they take office.
Mitchell made that argument...a potential exit ramp for SCOTUS to take without having to deal with the officer issue or the insurrection issue? Was that intentional?
.
Decent Americans hope this jackass never reproduces.
That photograph should be the official photograph of the Volokh Conspiracy -- a blog by and for juvenile, on-the-spectrum, antisocial, un-American, painfully white, technically male, right-wing misfits.
News flash, your ejaculating into other men at truck stops isn't going to reproduce either.
Mayor Pete, I’m preggers! The condom must have broken. And it’s twins!?!
My recollection is that Truman held up the “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline after it was clear that Truman Defeats Dewey.
Blackman’s posing with Luttig’s comment before SCOTUS rules indicates a lack of familiarity with the idea of hubris.
Still, the fact that he desperately wants to rub Luttig’s nose in it, does confirm the layman’s impression that the collective noun for legal academics is “Girls’ School.”
+1. Although if SCOTUS does end up using Prof. Tillman's longstanding argument as the basis for ruling for Trump, he will be entitled to a bit of hubris.