The Volokh Conspiracy
Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent
The Eternal Recurrence of Debt Ceiling Debates
The current debate is a replay of debates we have had before (and will likely have again).
In yesterday's New York Times, Michael McConnell explains why "The idea that the 14th Amendment gives the president unilateral power to borrow is dangerous nonsense." He writes:
Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, enacted in the wake of the Civil War, says: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law … shall not be questioned." The immediate purpose was to prevent future Congresses (if controlled by pro-Confederate Democrats) from repudiating pension obligations and other debts incurred to win the Civil War. No doubt it applies beyond those narrow circumstances. But by its terms it does not authorize the president to borrow more money in violation of Article I, Section 8, Clause 2. Nor does it authorize the president to impose taxes in violation of Article I, Section 8, Clause 1. By its terms, it does not augment the president's powers one iota.
Nor does Section 4 have anything to do with payment of the national debt. It does not make it unconstitutional for the United States to run out of money. Nice idea, but impossible. Section 4 prevents the only institution of government that could deny the validity of the debt — namely, Congress — from doing so. For the United States to fail to pay interest or principal on its debt would be financially catastrophic, but it would not affect the validity of the debt. When borrowers fail to make payments on lawfully incurred debt, this does not question the validity of those debts; their debts are just as valid as before. The borrowers are just in default.
Moreover, even if the president were to issue new bonds without congressional authorization, the text of Section 4 makes plain that these bonds would not be constitutionally binding. Only public debt "authorized by law" — meaning by statute — has that status. Were Mr. Biden to issue bonds on his unilateral authority, the bond market would know that those bonds were not backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. Sensible investors would not purchase such bonds or would demand such a high risk premium as to make them uneconomical.
Professor McConnell's op-ed reminded me that this is not the first time we have heard these arguments. Indeed, I blogged on Professor McConnell's views about the debt limit over a decade ago in this post. It was one of a series of posts I wrote between 2011 and 2013 over the debt ceiling, the 14th Amendment, and platinum coin fantasies. (For some reason -- likely my error -- that listing excludes this post, noting then-Treasury Department General Counsel George Madison's insistence that the Department "has always viewed the debt limit as a binding legal constraint that can only be raised by Congress," and this post noting the history of government shutdowns.)
For those interested in more historical perspective on the use of debt ceiling standoffs to pursue other political goals, I recommend this paper from 1993 explaining how "the use of the debt ceiling vote as a vehicle for other legislative matters," had become a "pattern" in the mid-1970s and 1980s, and this Washington Post fact check noting the history of attaching non-budget items to debt ceiling increases.
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Democrats take the position that they can ram through trillions of vote-buying spending, and Republicans are morally obligated to just raise the ceiling with no strings attached.
Maybe handing out trillions so that 19 year old mothers with four illegitimate children can buy fake nails and new sail phones wasn't such a great idea after all.
If only there was some democratically elected body responsible for deciding what the government can spend, and what they can spend it on!
And if only there was a body, maybe even that same one, that was allowed to decide the level of revenue needed to responsibly fund that spending and could set tax levels such there was some reasonable relationship between income and outflow.
If the founders were all that smart they would have created such a body.
It’s called the House of Representatives, the Republicans have a majority, and it has to be conceded that most of them ran – and were democratically elected – on a promise to get borrowing and spending under control. And many were quite open that they were willing to play hardball.
That’s exactly what they’re doing now. They’ve decided, with full democratic legitimacy, to not borrow more money unless certain conditions are met.
Elections have consequences.
So let them amend the appropriations. Until they do, those are the law of the land.
Why is it that the appropriations are sacrosanct, because they've been voted on by a duly elected body (there's a question if that's true, but I digress), but that the debt ceiling negotiations are not?
So's the debt ceiling.
That’s what they did do, in a bill that also increases the debt ceiling.
(No Congress ever appropriated funds for Biden’s student loan giveaway though.)
I usually respect McConnell but this is pure hackwork.
No, threatening that the nation defaults on its debts is not part of regular politics. No more than kidnapping Biden and holding a gun to his head.
Biden is just as much threatening default by not encouraging the Democrat Party Senate to pass the House bill that would raise the limit.
Just paying the ransom encourages another kidnapping.
It's only a "ransom" if you start from the assumption that the default must always be to increase the ceiling with no conditions.
They only take that position when they are on this side of the debate.
It takes two to tango. Why does Biden get a pass for refusing to negotiate but not Republicans?
Because the two situations are not comparable, though I wouldn't expect you to know that since your knee jerk reaction to everything is "what about".
In the case of raising the debt ceiling, this is to satisfy obligations that have already been incurred. We owe the money, whether or not we ever borrow another nickel. And not paying it would permanently cripple our credit rating. Not raising the debt ceiling is essentially the same as not paying your already existing credit card debt or mortgage.
In the case of cutting spending, that is setting policy for future spending that may or may not ever happen. The two have little to do with one another.
Why bother having a debt ceiling if it will always be raised as a formality with no strings attached?
In theory or in practice?
In theory, we have debt ceilings so that Congress can exercise its oversight to keep us within budget. If we actually had a functioning Congress, that would be a legitimate answer.
In practice, you're probably right that there is no point. But keep in mind that we're in this situation because the political reality is that people wants lots of goods and services that they're not willing to be taxed for. There is no political will to reduce goods and services, and there is no political will to raise the necessary taxes to pay for them. This is a problem with the voters.
No they're okay raising taxes, just to raise taxes on someone else. That is, anyone with more money than they have.
Which is their definition of the "rich".
Well, Biden's plan doesn't raise taxes on anyone not making at least 400k annually. I suppose 400k doesn't go as far as it used to, but that sounds rich to me.
Except that you could raise taxes on those making above $400k to 100% and still not even come close to addressing the deficit.
This is aside from the morality of people making under $400k voting to raise taxes on other people, but not themselves.
I'd like to see a citation to actual numbers before I take your word for it that a 100% tax rate on people making more than 400k wouldn't come close to addressing the deficit. Just to be clear, I would not favor such a policy. That you don't know that it's spelled "cell phone" and not "sail phone" does not enhance your credibility.
And you're entitled to your opinion about morality.
Math time!
Using the 2020 data from the Tax Foundation, the top 1% of tax returns represented a total income of $2.7T and they currently pay $700B in taxes, so if you did raise income tax rates to 100% (and somehow this didn't discourage anyone from earning any money) that would generate an additional $2T in revenue, which is considerably more than the projected $1.5T in revenue. Also note that the income cutoff for the top 1% is about $550K so this is understating the total available tax revenue.
Long way of saying you shouldn't make statements of fact without actually verifying if they're correct or not. It makes you look pretty dumb.
Also, thanks to the Republican party turning into mostly a culture war crusade, people with high incomes now split about evenly across the two parties, so there's plenty of people earning more than $400K voting to raise their own taxes.
jb : “and somehow this didn’t discourage anyone from earning any money”
Good one. In reality your math is pretty much irrelevant to hoppy’s assertion, since hoppy did not cabin his prediction within your stipulated “no change” scenario.
In reality, a 100% tax rate would crash top taxable incomes even with no change in the economy, since the richest folk can decide when to take income and gains. They’d just wait out the lunacy and in the meantime your $2.7T would crumble to less than half that.
But obviously there would be an economic effect – eg stock prices would tank and you’d be saying goodbye to pretty much your entire tax take on capital gains. Oh yes, and you wouldn’t be getting much from those fatcat banker bonuses and executive stock options. Like zip.
So practically hoppy is almost certainly right, and what’s more you know it else you wouldn’t have put a ‘somehow” in your stipulation.
Thanks Lee. Not to mention the fact that small business owners and others would just close up shop once they hit the arbitrary $400k threshold (or whatever it ends up being). If my pizzeria generates $700k in income a year, I'll just go on a 4-5 month vacation after I hit $400k. Why not? Why work for free?
The overarching point is that the Democrats peddle a narrative that we have plenty of money, have no need to reduce spending (in fact, we need to increase spending to pay for universal health care, pre-K, transgender surgeries, and whatever else), but that all we need to do is “ask” (not force) the “wealthiest among us to pay just a little more.”
That’s a fantasy. The only way to raise the money needed is to dramatically increase taxes on EVERYONE, including the middle class, and probably even the lower middle class. That’s not politically palatable, so the Democrats peddle the lie instead.
"Math time"
Better math...
1. You're only accounting for federal income taxes. You're ignoring the contribution of medicare/medicaid taxes (another ~$100 Billion), state income taxes (another ~$100-200 billion) and other taxes.
2a. You have to assume that the 100% rate is going to be a marginal rate (ie on just that income above $400K). If you tell someone making $401,000 that you're taking "all" their income in taxes, but not someone making $399,000...I guarantee no one will ever make above $400K.
2b. When doing that, you need to then exclude their income below $400K from the 100% rate of taxation. Doing that reduces the available money by another ~$600 billion
3. Combining all that means that with a "100%" tax rate, you'd be bringing in substantially less than the deficit.
Lee--Obviously I know a 100% tax rate wouldn't work (the "somehow" was indeed an acknowledgement of this point), but Hoppy wasn't arguing about the effectiveness of a 100% tax just talking about the income available. What's the point of discussing a 100% tax rate otherwise? With the exception of Bernie's intentionally punitive billionaire's tax, no one proposes 100% income taxes as a way to raise revenue.
As for AL's supposedly "better math", keep in mind:
1) These are 2020 numbers; total income will be up since then.
2) By your own math, we're only excluding $200-300B on other taxes.
3) I don't see any reason to assume that hoppy was proposing a marginal rate, but even if we're talking about a marginal rate on $400K+ it's a close call. The average income per return for the top 1% group is about 1.8M. If we back out the first $400K of that we'd lose about $440B in revenue. Between that the high end of your range for other taxes we'd now miss closing the deficit by $240B if we were only taxing the top 1%, but as I mentioned previously the top 1% cutoff is $150K over that so the original math was a fair underestimate of total revenue. We'd probably have a close call in this scenario, rather than the math clearly demonstrating that hoppy makes stuff up and presenting it as if it's a fact.
jb,
1. And taxed income will be up
2. I'm not including "all" other taxes. State/local property taxes, corporate taxes, sales taxes, more.
3. You need to assume it's a marginal rate. Otherwise, it makes zero sense. Again, who is ever going to make more than $400K if the second you do so, the government seizes ALL of your income, including every penny you make below $400K. You'd be a literal pauper.
The average incomes are a bad way to estimate this. You need to really look at the median income, as it's skewed significantly downwards. Realistically, you can simply exclude $400K from every single tax return as a simplified measure.
This of course doesn't include the massive change in behavior that a 100% marginal tax rate above $400 K would cause. With state income taxes, many would face a 110% marginal tax rate above $400K.
Why bother having a debt ceiling if it will always be raised as a formality with no strings attached?
Indeed. The only sane thing to do here would be to abolish the debt ceiling. It serves no legitimate purpose, and periodically raises the costs of borrowing for the US government.
Again, per US Constitution Article 1 Section 8 Clause 2, only the US Congress has the authority to borrow money against the credit of the United States.
A straight up repeal of the “debt ceiling” (a significant misnomer) would instantly reduce the Treasury’s borrowing authority to $0.00
The "debt ceiling" is not a limit on the Treasury's authority to borrow money. It is a grant of authority for the Treasury to borrow $X.
The outcome you want (the Treasury has inherent authority to borrow as much as necessary to meet approved spending) would require a constitutional amendment.
Good luck with that.
Can Congress pass a law granting that authority without an upper limit without violating the Constitution?
Of course. There is no sane theory of constitutional interpretation that would suggest otherwise.
Sure, why not? The Constitution doesn't say that any authority to borrow money must be limited. Hell, the Copyright Clause explicitly requires a limit, and the Supreme Court has read that limit out of the Constitution for all intents and purposes.
No, the debt ceiling is 31 U.S.C. §3101. Borrowing is authorized by §3102 et. seq. limited only to "amounts necessary for expenditures authorized by law".
No. The ceiling in 31 U.S.C. §3101 applies to :
"The face amount of obligations issued under this chapter and the face amount of obligations whose principal and interest are guaranteed by the United States Government (except guaranteed obligations held by the Secretary of the Treasury)"
Borrowing authorized by §3102 et. seq falls within "obligations issued under this chapter"
Yes it does, but it no longer would if §3101 were repealed. That is what we were talking about.
How about a law that says that the Treasury is authorized to borrow whatever money is needed to support spending authorized by Congress? Alternatively, every budget bill could just include authorization to borrow whatever money is needed to fund that bill.
Failing all that, Congress could just set a debt ceiling of a googol dollars.
Failing all that, Congress could just set a debt ceiling of a googol dollars.
If it did, the ceiling would rapidly be hit.
A straight up repeal of the “debt ceiling” (a significant misnomer) would instantly reduce the Treasury’s borrowing authority to $0.00
So maybe, instead, they could adopt a law that says something like (hypothetically):
Planning on moving to the US and running for Congress?
There is indeed no reason for the debt ceiling.
It's idiotic.
The "debt ceiling" is the only authority the Treasury has to borrow any money at all.
This. Exactly this.
This regular drama is like Lucy and Charlie Brown and the football.
Aside from oversight from Congress on government revenue and obligations....
It's hard to pay the army without a revenue source. But, if the executive doesn't need Congress to sign off on debt anymore...
Krycheck
Not raising the debt ceiling doesnt impair existing debt
It prevents new spending that requires additional debt.
I've said nothing to the contrary.
Krychek_2 8 mins ago
Flag Comment Mute User
"I’ve said nothing to the contrary."
Yes you did say to the contrary
Krychek2 - "In the case of raising the debt ceiling, this is to satisfy obligations that have already been incurred. We owe the money, whether or not we ever borrow another nickel. And not paying it would permanently cripple our credit rating. Not raising the debt ceiling is essentially the same as not paying your already existing credit card debt or mortgage."
Nothing in my statement that you quoted is to the contrary. Just because someone is a deadbeat and doesn't pay their bills doesn't mean they don't still owe it.
Krychek_2 2 hours ago
Flag Comment Mute User
Nothing in my statement that you quoted is to the contrary. Just because someone is a deadbeat and doesn’t pay their bills doesn’t mean they don’t still owe it.
Krychek - your last sentence states exactly what you deny stating
Aren’t there all sorts of existing obligations (e.g., Social Security, and interest on government issues) that can only be met by raising the debt ceiling?
Only if you assume absolutely all existing spending levels must be maintained.
I'm not referring to future spending. I am referring to spending already authorized by prior law. Are you proposing we not honor those commitments?
Brett simply refuses to understand this simple point.
I think you may be confusing “spending already authorized by prior law” and “commitments” ie obligations to which some person has a pre-existing legal entitlement. Thus the fact that the Congress may have authorized $800 squillion to be spent on defense contracts, does not mean that any particular defense contractor has a legal right to any of that $800 squillion (except to the extent that it has an actual contract.)
As for social security, SCOTUS has advised us in Flemming v Nestor that it is not property and Congress is entitled to renege on its prior promises as it pleases.
I get the difference. But, should we not honor those non-legally binding commitments?
"But, should we not honor those non-legally binding commitments?"
Seriously, depends on the commitment. A lot of this spending is pointless or affirmatively damaging to the economy. Just transfers to political cronies, or politicians laundering money back into their own hands at ruinous inefficiency.
But the question here isn't whether there's some free floating moral obligation to take that Hawaii vacation, once we've booked the tickets. It's whether a future expenditure already constitutes a debt in terms of the 14th amendment.
And I say, no, it doesn't.
Let's take social security.
In economic terms, social security is an enormous post-dated check. The contributions are insufficient to fund the promises, and this has been known for nearly a century.
The post dated check was written by politicians, not on their own account, but on the accounts of future taxpayers, most of whom were not even born at the time. And so were not registered voters.
Social security recipients have been on notice since 1960 that social security has the legal status of an indication from Uncle Morty that there may be something coming to you in the mail on your birthday.
In what sense therefore could it be said to be unfair for the feds to renege, or partially renege, on those ancient Ponzi promises by dead Ponzi scheme merchants ?
All across Europe, pols have bitten the bullet and reneged. And the electoral damage has been more or less minimal.
So as far as social security is concerned it seems to me that the nature of the commitment is as deep as "of course I'll respect you in the morning". If you believe that's the same as a marriage certificate, that's your look out.
As to other commitments - such as a continuing stream of paycecks to federal workers - it's much the same. You know you have a job that is financed on the day-to-day say so of a few hundred Uncle Mortys. Each month that a paycheck shows up is a bonus.
"But, should we not honor those non-legally binding commitments?"
That depends. For example, when WWII ended we canceled a bunch of contracts for ships and other war material. Should we have kept building ships we no longer needed?
I worked for a government agency that wasn't minding the budget store and hired more people than they could pay ... people got laid off. One guy was in the middle of a cross country move to start his promised job.
It's not nice, but you have to live within your means.
Social Security law automatically cuts spending when revenues are less than spending plus the amount in the trust fund. Most other laws have no such provision. I'm inclined to think we should honor such commitments absent any legislation that explicitly removes the obligation.
Josh,
That's not quite true. Congress appropriates money, but there isn't necessary a mandate that it all be SPENT.
Let's give a simple example. Congress wants 10 Million Covid vaccines, and they allocate 1 Billion dollars for HH&S to acquire the vaccines. HH&S does some negotiating, and they manage to get the vaccines for $600 Million. The other $400 million doesn't actually have to be spent. It can, in fact, go back to the Treasury. And in fact, that is what happens.
Fine. But what if instead HHS can't pay the $600 million because of the debt ceiling?
"But what if instead HHS can’t pay the $600 million because of the debt ceiling?"
So, let's respond here initially with a different example. Congress instructs HH&S to purchase 10 million COVID vaccines for $1 billion dollars. HH&S looks hard, but can't find a vendor to purchase 10 million COVID vaccines from, for any of a number of reasons. (No vaccines available, none available within the current timeline, etc) The money is allocated, can't be spent, and is returned to the Treasury. The law isn't broken.
Now, let's look at your example:
The short answer is, it depends on the contract.
If the money is due before delivery, then the contractor can simply withhold delivery, like with any other business contract. Like with the example above, due to factors beyond HH&S's control, no purchase can be made. (Realistically it's delayed)
If the money is due after delivery, and delivery is made, and no funds are delivered, the company can sue the US government for the funds. As with any standard business.
My argument is we should raise the debt ceiling with no strings attached in order to insure we can buy those vaccines when the money is due before delivery.
Lee, appropriations are also laws passed by Congress, laws that command the President to spend money. He has a duty to faithfully execute those laws and also make unappropriated payments Congress has commanded, while simultaneously obeying the debt ceiling statute.
Can he do all these things at once? I agree with comments that missing a payment is not repudiation of a debt, and that is what the 14th amendment prohibits (and what it intended to prohibit), but another statute does require paying so again some law ends up broken. Plus, of course, this route would destroy the country's credit rating which is a another good reason to avoid it.
The best option in my opinion is the "premium bond", where the government sells at the market price (e.g. by auction) bonds with a higher than prevailing interest rate, or non-redeemable perpetual bonds with a face value of zero. Because the debt ceiling limits the total face value of obligations issued*, these methods allow the government to continue to borrow and meet its constitutional and statutory obligations including (at least technically) the debt ceiling.
* Michael Dorf argues that these methods don't actually work because §3101(c) defines "face value" in a way that nullifies them, but he ignores that the definition applies only to obligations "issued on a discount basis", i.e. at an issue price lower than the redemption value, and that is not the case for premium bonds.
As has been explained above, the "debt ceiling" is a bit of a misnomer. In reality it's a "debt authorization." Article 1 grants to Congress the authority "To borrow money on the credit of the United States." No such authority is granted by the constitution to the Executive branch. Therefore any borrowing undertaken by the Executive branch can only be done under Congress's express authority.
Thus if the Executive branch borrows money in excess of its authority granted by Congress, it is in breach of the constitution, not merely in breach of a federal law.
Whereas if it fails to make spendings authorized by Congress, because it has run out of money, because Congress has failed to authorize sufficient taxes or borrowings, the Executive branch is merely in breach of an ordinary federal law. Moreover it is breach only because of Congress's contradictory laws.
So it's an easy question for the Executive branch. Don't breach the constitution, and wait for Congress to reconcile its conflicting laws.
The best option in my opinion is the “premium bond”, where the government sells at the market price (e.g. by auction) bonds with a higher than prevailing interest rate, or non-redeemable perpetual bonds with a face value of zero.
I agree.
Michael Dorf argues that these methods don’t actually work because §3101(c) defines “face value” in a way that nullifies them, but he ignores that the definition applies only to obligations “issued on a discount basis”, i.e. at an issue price lower than the redemption value, and that is not the case for premium bonds.
The technical name for a non redeemable perpetual bond, entitling the holder to a regular stream of set payments in perpetuity, is an "annuity." An annuity payment is a per se obligation, not interest on a debt. Consequently each individual payment would be an obligation issued at a discount falling within (c). Thus the defined face value would be the original issue price attributable to each annuity payment, increasing each month as the payment date approached.
You would have to try a redeemable bond with a definite, but low, face value - ie a bond with a high interest rate issued at a large premium. Unless there's another section dealing with those. I would be surprised if there wasn't a section dealing with bonds issued at a premium.
Unless there’s another section dealing with those. I would be surprised if there wasn’t a section dealing with bonds issued at a premium.
They would be sold, not issued, at a premium. Face value might be $500, say, instead of $1000, but with a high coupon they would sell at auction for much more than that.
I don't think there is a law that prevents the Treasury from selling bonds at auction, which sometimes will produce a premium over face value.
They would be sold, not issued, at a premium.
Not quite sure what your point is here. The transaction whereby the original creditor acquires a debt instrument by handing over money to the debtor is an "issue" whether the issue is at par, at a discount or at a premium. You can also call it a "sale" but if you wish to distinguish "issue" and "sale" the distinction is that a sale involves an acquisition and a disposal, of something pre-existing the transaction, whereby an issue involves an acquisition without a corresponding disposal, ie where the transaction itself brings the asset and liability into existence.
I too would be surprised if there was some law that prevented the Treasury from issuing bonds at a premium, precisely because a premium is likely to arise roughly half the time when the issuer intends, pre auction, to issue at par. My point was that I would expect the debt limit rules to cater for such a possibility, since it ought to be a common occurence.
Technically it is a "perpetuity", an annuity has a maturation date. When issued in the form of a bond they are also a perpetual bond or "consol bond".
The United States has issued consols before, and since the §3102 authorization to borrow by issuing bonds says nothing about maturation it presumably could issue them today. I am less sure that they could have a face value of $0, the statute says "at any annual interest rate" but that probably does not include infinity.
The §3101(c) calculation applies to obligations whose issue price is less than the repayment at maturity and that are not redeemable on demand of the holder. Its effect is to reckon their contribution to the debt on an accrual basis, starting with the issue price on the issue date and ending with the redemption value on the maturity date. Its purpose isn't to prevent undercounting the debt but rather to prevent overcounting it, as the normal definition of "face value" would include the full redemption value from day one.
Except there is so much debt that they have been paying off old debt with new debt for decades.
No, new spending is authorized by appropriations. The debt ceiling only limits borrowing to pay the bills once they come due, that's why this system is so screwed up.
And not paying it would permanently cripple our credit rating.
Nah. Governments often default on their debts, and their credit rating usually recovers quickly. Spain, for example, defaulted five times in the 16th and 17th century, even while the flood tide of gold and silver from the New World was at its height. The Kings of Spain just spent more than their income. But the bankers always came back with new loans.
The US itself has defaulted four times :
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/575722-the-us-has-never-defaulted-on-its-debt-except-the-four-times-it-did/
and that hasn't deterred lenders even a teeny bit.
A US default on its publicly issued debt would not cause the sky to fall, it would just increase the risk premium on US government debt. And so, ever so slightly, tilt the political needle away from the current spend now, pay later, model that both parties love so much. But only a little.
But it's not gonna happen, nor would it happen even in the event of a debt limit set in concrete at the current level.
Revenue arriving in federal coffers is waaay more than that required to service the interest on the publicly issued debt - by a factor of at last 10. And dealing with principal repayments is not really affected by the debt limit. (Repaying principal automatically frees up capacity within the existing debt limit.)
It is only really necessary to increase the debt limit if you plan to keep increasing spending above current levels.
But the hair on fire stuff will continue until McCarthy caves, as no doubt he has planned to do all along. It's just a show for the rubes.
Oh, is that all? = A US default on its publicly issued debt would not cause the sky to fall, it would just increase the risk premium on US government debt.
No biggie, right? And the size of the risk premium the market will demand to loan money to a deadbeat payor (the US, if default) is....?
Correct, no biggie. The usual response of folk who find interest rates a bit steep is to lay off the borrowing – ie cut spending and, if possible, get a weekend job to bring in more income.
What a disaster it would be if Uncle Sam did that too.
Lee Moore, I think the financial markets are not so sanguine as you (US debt default), when it comes to considering the size of the risk premium that the US would have to pay to attract institutional and sovereign bond buyers in a 'US is a deadbeat' scenario.
I don't like the debt ceiling imbroglio any more than anyone else. You'd think there would be some mature adults in Washington, DC. Sadly, they're in short supply there.
Which means that lenders (mainly domestic) will get more interest on their treasury bills. I'm not seeing why that's a problem.
Whoa, THAT is your proof defaulting on debts isn't a big freaking deal? That Spain got away with it while they were looting the new world of tons of precious metals? Maybe there was a reason the bankers thought they were a good credit risk anyway?
What's the US equivalent to the treasure ships? A large supply of paper and ink for printing currency?
Spain had a good income. That’s why the bankers were willing to lend to them. The occasional default was a risk they were willing to take and keep taking.
Uncle Sam has a good income. From you and your neighbors.
Uncle Sam has a good income for a country that was spending 75% as much as at present. Nobody who is routinely spending considerably more than their income, year after year, after year, has "a good income" for purposes of credit.
That was not the opinion of Spain’s bankers. Who included the Fuggers. Who did OK.
"Not raising the debt ceiling is essentially the same as not paying your already existing credit card debt "
No, when you reach the limit on your credit card, you ask for a limit raise and the issuer says no, you just can't charge anymore. Not a default, not "questioning" the debt.
this is to satisfy obligations that have already been incurred. We owe the money, whether or not we ever borrow another nickel.
So what you’re saying is that Congress made obligations and didn’t consider the debt implications. And in doing so, it’s up to the republicans to get them out of the jam they got themselves into.
You guys never quit, do you?
A negotiation involves give and take. Something like consideration in contracts. Each party to the negotiation gives up something in return for something else.
In the context of the present circumstances, no sane person should not want to raise the debt limit. In actuality, most republicans probably either want to raise the limit or realize that doing so is necessary.
It isn't negotiation to offer something that you also want, just to see what else you can get out of it. Because you wouldn't be giving up anything that you wouldn't otherwise do. There is no consideration, it's just an attempt to identify a leverage point and exploit it.
It isn’t negotiation to offer something that you also want, just to see what else you can get out of it. Because you wouldn’t be giving up anything that you wouldn’t otherwise do. There is no consideration, it’s just an attempt to identify a leverage point and exploit it.
Why would you think that identifying a leverage point and exploiting it isn’t a form of negotiation ? That’s what Congresscritturs like Joe Manchin do for a living. I’m not agreeing to your spendathon, I’m going to sulk and pout…..until you cut me and my guys in for a big slice of the pie.
Say you live in a condo block, and the other nine owners want to do an expensive refurb. You don’t want to pay anything, and they need your agreement. So they offer to do it without you having to pay anything, so long as you agree. Something for nothing. But you might still say no, unless they pay you $5,000 for “noise and disturbance” compensation. About which you care not at all, but you’d just like the five grand.
It’s a simple expected value calculation :
(a) agree and get a free refurb worth $15,000 to your condo value
(b) hold out for an extra five grand and (i) they cave and you get 5k and a 15k refurb, prob = x% (ii) they give up and you get squat, prob = 100 – x%
So long as p > 75%, and so long as you don’t mind your neighbors scowling at you (more than usual) it’s worth being a miserable old scrote.
Anyway the point is there are lots of situations in which it may be worth giving up a sure thing in exchange for a good chance of an even tastier, if not quite so sure, thing.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. But fifteen birds in the bush ? Maybe not.
Who decides whether the government details on its debts? Are we in such dire financial straits that we need to increase the debt limit just to pay off existing debts?
Yes.
Or more accurately, no.
The federal debt costs a bit under $1 billion a year in interest, about 20% of federal tax revenues.
So even if the current debt limit was set in concrete, the Feds could still pay their debt service costs five times over. And over time, as inflation rolls on, the debt principal would stay the same and the tax revenues would rise, increasing that ratio to make it easier to service the debt.
Note that paying off, and refinancing, the principal of the debt is not affected by the debt limit and so doesn't affect the calculation.
And yet, does the federal government do this? No, the federal government does not. So something in this analysis is screwy.
The federal government does not do this because it prefers to spend that 20% of federal tax revenues on goodies for registered voters, and, ah, supporters.
The point is Michael P’s use of the word “need.” The federal government can easily meet its debt obligations from tax revenues. Five times over. But it doesn’t wish to do so, because it needs to get re-elected. That’s the need in question. Nothing to do with the financial arithmetic.
I think you misplaced some decimal points.
“I usually respect McConnell but this is pure hackwork.” Is the reasoning wrong? If so, how?
We don't need no stinkin' debt limit?
Paying your debts is not something that can be negotiated. You simply have to do it.
It is irresponsible to threaten suicide.
So the Democrats should stop threatening it.
Planned spending isn't "debts".
Man, I was planning on buying that new car.
I simply have to do it, regardless if I reach the maximum credit limit on my account.
There's no negotiating with what I planned to spend the money on.
"Paying your debts is not something that can be negotiated. You simply have to do it."
Now do college loans.
Your response did not address my questions.
“I usually respect McConnell but this is pure hackwork.” Is the reasoning wrong? If so, how?
If you don’t understand that avoiding default is simply not something that can be negotiated then I don’t have anything else to say.
Everything can be negotiated.
It's seems that you're ready to abandon democracy, using the debt limit as a pretext.
The House has passed a measure to raise the debt limit, the Senate has not passed its own proposal.
In a democracy the executive doesn't get to say I don't like the legislative solution so I'll impose my own. And people who care about "our democracy" don't root them on. It's used to be that people thought democracy was important.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/house-vote-protect-our-democracy-act/index.html
No, you don't.
When a piece begins with "President Biden is playing a dangerous game", and does nothing but praise what the house has done, then there is a decent chance that it is all partisan advocacy.
McCarthy and/or the house isn't also playing a dangerous game? Not according to McConnell. It is all on Biden.
Over the weekend, Biden has characterized current discussions as positive, and hasn't criticized anyone. While every interview with McCarthy involves all kinds of attacks on Biden. That isn't constructive towards a solution.
McCarthy put forward a plan and the House approved it. So far the Senate has done nothing and neither has Biden. No Joke.
So what you're saying is that McCarthy has failed to put forward a plan that can get past the senate.
No, that's what you'tr saying. If the Dem controlled Senate has a plan, put it out there.
Your comment is completely devoid of any Constitutional analysis. It's pure politics. Almost the definition of hackwork.
Not to mention, as others have stated, that the stick-up is two-way here. Each side is playing a game of chicken, hoping to blame the other side. So even as politics, it's hackwork.
No.
What the Republicans are doing is pure hostage-taking. It is not normal negotiation over spending. That should take place during the budgeting process.
Further, this is a repeated game that needs to just fucking stop. If you give in now then what happens next time - they refuse to raise the limit unless Biden resigns or something?
"That should take place during the budgeting process."
Is that a commandant or something? As you imply, such negotiating has happened before regarding the debt ceiling.
Biden wants something, GOP wants something in return. Standard issue politics in a divided government.
There is an obvious connection between the debt ceiling and spending. So your hypothetical demand that Biden resign is silly.
"Giving in" here means sitting down and having serious negotiations with the party that controls one house of Congress. Biden prefers politicking the issue. So, sorry, don't see the politics that way.
(And you too failed to even address the OP topic, the 14th Amendment.)
Bernard is channeling 20 years ago when there was actually a budgeting process. Quaint, but very much behind the times.
Well, maybe if we cut out all the BS, like the crap about the debt ceiling, we could get back to a sensible budget process.
Well, that's about as upside down as would be possible to achieve.
Maybe we could get back to a sensible budget process if we eliminated the last occasion that forces politicians to confront how much they're spending? That's what passes as sensible in your world?
I dunno. It's like the credit counselor chatting with Mr. and Mrs. LiveBeyondTheirMeans, and they think the solution to their problem is to get the bank to eliminate the limit on their credit cards rather than lowering their expenditures (or, to be fair, working more to increase their income).
If Congress thinks the US Federal government is living beyond its means (which, for the record, it generally isn't), Congress is welcome to appropriate less money and/or raise taxes.
Read about the history of the debt limit
https://themonkeycage.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/debt-ceiling-leloup-1993.pdf
Nowhere in your comment did you address anything that McConnell said. Instead you made up your own imaginary topic.
McConnell customarily is advertised as a "scholar" with respect to religion (limitless special privilege for superstition-based claims in particular). He also has supported a constitutional amendment to ban abortion. He is a reliable advocate for stale, ugly right-wing thinking.
Balkinization is running rings around McConnell and the Conspirators on this one.
"Sensible investors would not purchase such bonds or would demand such a high risk premium as to make them uneconomical."
It's unclear to me why anyone would think the current administration would CARE if the risk premium made them uneconomical.
Because President Biden has more sense than Republicans credit him for. If he were as stupid as y'all seem to think, he'd have already driven us over a cliff.
Apparently you're even dumber than Biden.
Just keep laughing and he'll just keep getting stuff done.
"he’ll just keep getting stuff done"
He's spent borrowed money. Big deal.
He’s taking the position that he’ll drive us over a cliff if the Republicans force spending to be cut to the draconian level that was fine last year. Doesn’t seem all that sensible, really.
I assume that you’re taking the position that the debt limit doesn’t actually mean anything and should simply be ignored. Reflexively raising it every time we approach it means it’s not actually a limit, doesn’t it?
Last year's levels are not where the House Cuckoo Caucus wants to take us. They want to cut significantly more than that.
And I'm not saying that there aren't any spending cuts that could be made. Just that they shouldn't be tied to raising the debt ceiling.
Krycheck - last years spending levels vastly exceed the needed spending level - so whats wrong with the "Drastic Cuts" that amount to a 2%-3% cut in overall spending
Yeah I meant last year’s spending after adjusting out pandemic emergency spending.
Still doesn’t seem like that big a cut and for Biden to take the position that we should simply change the limit without any adjustments is not “sense”.
Just kicking the can down the road. Again. I’m surprised that Biden and our congresspeople can raise their damn legs after all the can kicking they’ve been doing.
“Yeah I meant last year’s spending after adjusting out pandemic emergency spending.”
Which was mostly political pork barrel spending by the Democrats. Most of it was unneeded and wasteful, with graft and corruption run amok, with negligible effort at policing the fraud and misspent billions.
Yes. While the March 2020 stimulus bill had plenty of waste, at least then you could plausibly make an argument that it was an unknown because of COVID. The March 2021 stimulus bill was inexcusable. A pure vote buying exercise. "Vote for Warnock and Ossoff and we'll give you $2,000."
Inflation is now out of control. Those stimmy checks were the most expensive checks the people ever got.
Because that's not what the House Cuckoo Caucus is proposing.
The cuckoo caucus stuff isn’t helping your point. Wanting to slow down spending growth is not crazy, whether you agree with it or not.
Should we be talking about Dementia Joe forgetting that we are deeply in debt? Does he have an idea to slow down growth of debt that is actually constitutional?
I assume that you’re taking the position that the debt limit doesn’t actually mean anything and should simply be ignored. Reflexively raising it every time we approach it means it’s not actually a limit, doesn’t it?
I take the position that it shouldn't exist.
And don't start with the crap about how it's the only way to limit spending, etc. That's utter BS.
bernard11, I read through your comments.
You don't like the limit on the debt ceiling and think it should not even exist because...[fill in the blank].
Aside from the congressional appropriation process, what other tool is a 'bernard11 approved' method to limit spending?
It is a blunt tool, I agree. But quite effective in making actual changes to spending. Do you approve of mandatory sequestration (Congress driven), or rescission (Executive driven) to limit spending?
Personally, I think we end with a form of sequestration sometime next month.
because... [fill in the blank]
Because it is playing with fire. One of these days we won't reach an agreement, and we will have a giant mess.
Because it is not a sensible way to set spending.
Because it encourages demagoguery and showmanship rather than a careful approach to budgeting.
Aside from the congressional appropriation process, what other tool is a ‘bernard11 approved’ method to limit spending?
Why do we need another tool? The budget process is the way we decide how much to spend on what. The people who are playing games with the debt ceiling are the same ones, more or less, who set the budget. So let them act like grownups, children throwing tantrums because they didn't get everything they wanted, so they are going to burn the house down.
"Why do we need another tool? The budget process is the way we decide how much to spend on what."
Well, it's how we decide how much we'd like to spend.
There is another process that decides how much we collect.
These two things have to be coordinated in some way (or the government could just send all of us a free Lambo and bizjet). The debt ceiling is designed to make sure 'what you want to spend' and 'how much you have' don't drift too far apart. Just like your bank sets a limit on your credit card balance.
Now, sober, responsible, frugal people don't need the bank to set a limit on their credit cards; they limit their spending to live within their means. But sober, responsible, and frugal are not words that describe congress.
Sober, responsible, frugal people do need the bank to set a limit on their credit cards. And they need it to be a high limit. If it isn't a high limit, then other people inflict a hit on SRFPs credit ratings—even if SRFPs income, spending, and balance payment habits remain unchanged.
The only reason why I need a limit on my credit card is because my credit card might get stolen. I've never come close to hitting the limit on my credit card, and it plays no role in how I use my credit card day-to-day.
Don't change your habits, just ask for a much lower limit on your credit card. See what happens to your credit scores.
"The only reason why I need a limit on my credit card is because my credit card might get stolen."
For a smart guy, that's a pretty stupid statement.
Congress is going to have to pass a budget this year. Why not just figure out what the right spending level is as part of that process?
Because the Republicans are not serious people who actually want to do things that make sense.
And you think the people who claim only spending 23% of the GDP instead of 25% is murderous austerity are being serious?
Yes. That is real money.
A clue you're not serious is how little you mention which actual cuts, just broad rollup numbers.
What serious cuts? Name them, and stop parroting the media BS line.
Brett is the one talking about cuts without naming them.
You regularly come in hot at stuff you misread.
Remember to the left reducing the rate of growth in spending is a serious cut.
Biden is as much in charge of the Whitehouse as Diane Feinstein is in charge of her senate staff.
He's not even in charge of his bowel movements.
Go join QAnon with that kind of want to believe.
The truth hurts, Sarcastro. Time to face it head on.
I like to believe things that have evidence behind them.
You and Kaz not so much I guess.
It’s unclear to me why anyone would think the current administration would CARE if the risk premium made them uneconomical.
That's because you have no idea WTF is going on and are reacting purely out of ideology. If interest rates on Treasuries soar so will rates throughout the economy, and world. Not long ago you were all worried about the dollar not being the main reserve currency.
Suddenly you don't care.
We're talking about an administration that literally bragged that, "Milton Friedman isn't running things anymore!". The idea that they actually give a shit about sane economic policies is absurd.
The idea that Milton Friedman's ideas, and only his, describe sane economic policies is nonsense - pure blind ideology.
And, yet, 40 years of following his advice gave up almost zero inflation.
Which 40 years, and what makes you think lack of inflation is solely a consequence of "following his advice," and what was that advice, anyway?
What a strange view of history you have.
Brett Bellmore : “We’re talking about an administration that literally bragged… (etc)”
A request for Brett : Will you please stop pretending there’s some massive gulf between this administration and any post-Carter Republican one in terms of fiscal responsibility or debt?
That’s what you want to believe, but there’s zero evidence for it. Anyone who believes ANY Republican pities on “sane economic policies” has been played for a chump repeatedly these last forty years. You people don’t give the slightest damn about debt when the GOP is in the White House. You didn’t give the slightest damn about debt during the Trump Administration.
It’s bad enough watching you threaten massive economic harm to the entire country unless you get you way with changes not earned in the voting booth. When that toxic threat is accompanied by a Mount Everest of hypocrisy, it’s so much worse.
The Republicans are reckless with spending too much, but if given the choice between spending $5 billion on fighter jets we don't need, or spending $5 billion on subsidies to inner city single black mothers with 5 illegitimate children or subsidies to cut off a mentally ill man's wang, I'll pick the former.
"not earned in the voting booth"
But they did earn it in the voting booth. The current spending levels were passed in 2022, before they took over the House.
They won the House so can negotiate now to rein in the spending a little bit.
A razor-thin victory in House elections and loss of seats in the Senate is no mandate to demand major budget changes under the threat to sabotage the country’s economy. Do you really think otherwise?
A two-year old might hold that view, but two-year olds don’t win elections. You might want to consider that as you plot to throw the United State’s economy into chaos. Your “earned” right to a destructive tantrum isn’t what normal (sane) people will find justified.
"seats"
One.
GOP house margin is exactly the same as Dem House margin in 2020. No "razor-thin" from you then.
Biden's people are already negotiating anyways. Because theGOP does have a big say, your spluttering notwithstanding.
But a razor thin majority in the Senate is a mandate to push through $2.1 trillion of stimulus spending in March of 2021?
Bernard, that’s ridiculous. What are the Democrats suggesting that makes sense beyond Spend, Baby, Spend?
Well, let's see.
How about funding the IRS so it can actually taxes that are owed, which will cut the deficit. Of course the GOP doesn't want that - they cut the funds in their proposal, which would increase the deficit by $120 billion per the CBO.
How about a tax increase on people making $400k+? You may not like that, but it's not a spending proposal.
How about going to pre-Trump levels of corporate taxes, since the cut was useless?
Keep dreaming.
Certainly wasn't useless, look at the chart for real average weekly earnings since 2007:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2023/05/Real-wage-growth.png
Yes, more funds for the IRS which can't even collect taxes owed from its own deadbeat employees.
"How about funding the IRS so it can actually taxes that are owed"
Because the IRS is making people who make a few dollars on E-bay get 1099s. Sold as affecting billionaires, in reality aimed at the lower middle class
They’re now funded so they can get after anybody with more that $600 in Venmo transfers. How much more than they need?
And don’t pull out the Bidenista “oh, that’s just right wing rhetoric” that Biden defenders anyways do to avoid defending a bad policy. They insisted that the $600 be in the tax part of the bill and the IRS has already announced their intent to collect that information. The they deferred it for 2022 because they didn’t have the form ready yet. Deferred. That was the word the IRS themselves used.
They’re now funded so they can get after anybody with more that $600 in Venmo transfers. How much more than they need?
For the love of God, read something about the ramifications of the actual real and manifest longstanding IRS funding and staffing shortfall that's not ragey ideological claptrap you agree with.
Why do they bother to do this? When they set a new debt limit none of them actually intend to let it serve as a limit. The Republicans don’t have the stones to actually let the limit force balanced spending (and presumably understand that default is a massive mistake) and the Democrats can’t find a single penny that shouldn’t be spent and actually contend that a spending level that was fine last year is a CATASTROPHE!!!! this year, with this ridiculous assertion swallowed whole by their partisans and the media.
Why even bother with the drama and the risk of someone messing up? Just yank the damn thing and be done with it.
Someone point out to Somin that this regular stupidity and lack of serious will represents our elite experts in action. While they sit like deer in the headlights while awaiting the budget mess created by lower coupon debt rolling off and being replaced by higher coupon debt. Save us, experts!! Demonstrate your eliteness!!! LOL
Borrowing is proportional to GDP, and not necessity. Unless you count buying as many votes as possible through some dependency as necessity. Which it is if you are a corrupt politician, which is to say, politician.
When an unexpected windfall happens, like the Internet boom around 1999, that balances the budget, Congress and these politicians don't take thay lying down. They rapidly increase spending to compensate, and get right back up to the GDP proportionality. It takes a couple of years.
What "experts" are you criticizing?
I doubt you'll find many actual experts advocating not raising the ceiling.
It was a reference to an article a couple of days ago that Somin wrote bemoaning our lack of faith in our government experts.
In this case in criticizing congress. And agreeing with you that we shouldn’t have a debt ceiling because as administered it’s meaningless.
It provides some leverage to limit spending.
In your fantasies it does. In the real world they simply continually raise it.
Except this time they’re only raising it in exchange for spending limits.
At absolute worst, you are correct. If anything goes even a tiny bit better than absolute worst, then spending is limited, at least a little bit.
Only if the president's name ends with a -D.
And the spending when a president's name ends with a -R more then makes up for any such limits.
"For the United States to fail to pay interest or principal on its debt would be financially catastrophic, but it would not affect the validity of the debt. When borrowers fail to make payments on lawfully incurred debt, this does not question the validity of those debts; their debts are just as valid as before. The borrowers are just in default."
100% correct. I've been saying this for years. The United State can default just like any other borrower.
And sometimes that might be a good thing. Imagine we're at war with Country X, but we owe it billions of dollars. Congress makes the decision that it's probably not a good idea to pay Country X a bunch of money that it can turn around an use against us. That's perfectly legitimate. The debt still exists, and maybe we'll pay it off one day (or maybe Country X agrees to waive it as part of a peace settlement). But we can strategically default on it like any other borrower. Maybe that's a bad idea because other lenders won't see the U.S. as a good investment, but that's a risk Congress can legitimately take.
In a war with the US, skittish investors' money will flow into the US, not out.
I often point out Kuwait had money backed by gold. Lot of good it did them.
The whole point of that clause was to reassure creditors that we wouldn't welsh on our debts. I don't think, "Yup, we owe that, no question. We're just not paying you anyway." is the sort of thing creditors find reassuring.
Creditors don't find it reassuring, nor should they. It's a terrible idea to not pay one's debts because it destroys one's credit rating.
But that's legally irrelevant. The 14th Amendment doesn't stop Congress from acting as a normal borrower, who can decide to default on its debt for whatever reason. Instead, it stops Congress from passing a law that says the debt doesn't exist (i.e., being invalid), which is something sovereigns *do* normally have the power to do, however unwise it is to actually do so.
No, it's NOT legally irrelevant. It goes directly to what it means to say that the validity of the debt shall not be questioned.
Defaulting doesn’t question the validity of the debt because defaulted-on debt isn’t wiped away by an act of Congress. I.e., the debt is valid even when defaulted on. Future Congresses can choose to pay it (and probably any interest and penalties) in hopes of restoring the country’s credit.
So, no, default is not legally relevant. People want to make it LEGALLY relevant to bolster their POLITICAL arguments.
Yeah, I suppose somebody could even argue, "We didn't question the debt when we said we didn't owe the money; No question mark, see? It was clearly a statement!"
This is nothing but sophistry. Really, that's all it is.
Dumb question maybe since I really haven't looked it up. What is to stop Biden (or any President in this situation) from using the money we have on hand to pay the interest on our loans to keep our credit standing and not use it to pay something else. I know money is appropriated for specific things and maybe would be considered unconconstitutional, but ultimately our loan creditors would get the money and those who were supposed to simply sue the government. It's not a great result but would be better than defaulting.
Absolutely nothing, except that they don't want to let spending go down.
Every President, up to and including Nixon, exercised the power to impound, not spend, appropriated funds. It was considered to be inherent in the office, until Congress passed a law prohibiting impoundment in 1974.
Since the Constitution forbids defaulting on the debt, and forbids taking on new debt without Congressional authorization, if something has to give, constitutionally it has to be spending.
But they just don't care about the Constitution at this point.
Absolutely nothing, except that they don’t want to let spending go down.
So repeal that 1974 law. Don't break it.
Yeah, I agree, repealing it is preferable to breaking it. Breaking it is, in turn, preferable to violating the Constitution. When the President is in a position where he has to pick between violating the Constitution, and violating a statute, he's supposed to violate the statute, every time. That's what it means to say that the Constitution is the highest law of the land: It takes precedence over every other law.
Don't think for one second I think the Republicans have covered themselves in glory here. They haven't been serious about balancing the budget in decades. You can look all the way back to when Gingrich promised a balanced budget amendment in his 'Contract', and then carefully managed the process for voting on it so that everybody who needed to could get a recorded "yes" vote without any risk of it actually passing. That was probably the last time when it would have been politically feasible to get that amendment through Congress, and he deliberately threw it away.
The Republicans have been fiscally awful. The Democrats are merely worse.
His constitutional obligation to see that the laws be faithfully executed. Letting the president pick & choose which appropriations to comply with and which to ignore would be tantamount to a line item veto over the budget.
I think you'll find the Executive routinely makes decisions about what laws to enforce based on available funds. And I didn't ask if it would be unconstitutional, I acknowledged it likely would be, but what could actually stop them.
What is to stop Biden (or any President in this situation) from using the money we have on hand to pay the interest on our loans to keep our credit standing and not use it to pay something else.
The fact that it wouldn't keep our credit standing. These things are not isolated.
You go in to refinance your mortgage, looking for a better rate. You have made all your payments on time, so anticipate no problems. Until the loan officer says,
"Yes, mse. I see you've always made your mortgage payments, but what about these unpaid electric and phone bills, and the fact that you are being sued for payment by the guy you hired to paint your house?"
"I'm afraid we can't refinance your loan."
We're not talking money already spent, Bernard, as you know quite well.
I don't understand your point, or how it relates to my comment.
My point was that making debt payments, while not paying other bills, doesn't preserve your credit rating.
Biden should probably start getting serious if he cares about that. Also Senate Dems.
The point is that anticipated future spending is not "bills." It's not "what about these unpaid electric and phone bills, and the fact that you are being sued for payment by the guy you hired to paint your house." It's "what about the new car you intended to buy next month, and the fact that you promised the kids a trip to Disneyworld before Ron DeSantis shuts it down?"
You may really really want that new car, but the fact that you planned to buy it does not make it a debt until after you do buy it.
That’s not the Democrats' chosen narrative. That’s all.
Democrats want to pretend it can’t go that way because they prefer something else. It could absolutely go that way.
If Biden isn’t serious about avoiding it, it’s a reasonable possibility.
What you meant to say was the perennial wisdom of debt ceiling debates.
There's no reason the House shouldn't insist on a debt ceiling increase that repeals Biden's student loan forgiveness. That's not spending Congress has authorized, or money we owe, etc.
Similarly, there is no reason Pres. Biden should not insist that Pres. Biden be authorized to determine precisely which federal spending is to be cut. The Republicans could set the amount to be cut; Pres. Biden could identify the cuts.
Why does the country even have a "debt ceiling"? It's not as if it's a Constitutional requirement. (It dates to 1917). If it's just some meaningless pro forma "requirement" that Congress is morally obligated to increase automatically whenever the President demands, then why not repeal it?
Because the alternative to the debt ceiling is what existed before the debt ceiling: Congress individually approving every separate bond sale.
(For the people who weren't listening the first time.)
Because Congress keeps passing one. It’s almost like Congress wants some limited input on what government does.
As opposed to literally anything else Congress does?
According to a quick google, it was a quid pro quo thing for the income tax.
And it's been an anchor around the economy's neck ever since, existing not to force good fiscal policy, but to enable bad behavior.
Limiting spending is called "bad behavior" here.
No, but adopting inconsistent legislation about what the government can spend, tax, and borrow is.
Repealing the ceiling is very appealing.
Debt limit crisis. Deja vu all over again.
On the bright side, this might mean 3rd installment of Remy's "Raise the Debt Ceiling"
The Democrats could have rammed through a repeal of the debt ceiling when they rammed through the stimulus bill in 2021. But they didn't. Why is that?
Takes 60 votes in the senate. There’s an exception to the 60 vote rule but it doesn’t apply to debt ceiling bills so far.
The exceptions to the 60 vote requirement are whatever the Senate decrees. The reason that the Senate didn’t remove it, is because some of the Saner members in the Dem caucus (Manchin, Sinema) balked, worrying about what happens when the Republicans retook the Senate.
I think they worried even more about what their own party would do without the 60 vote limit to restrain them.
Since then Sinema has left the Democratic party, and Manchin is distancing himself without completely burning his bridges.
The real reason is that they wanted to preserve it as a political issue to lie on Soros-funded media.
Really, it's all the fault of the Jews? That's where you decided to go?
Biden's bluffing of course. He will get the lion's share of blame by voters, it will mean defeat in 2024 if the economy has a crisis.
Biden has indicated he would strive to avoid default. I do not expect to observe that he has been bluffing. There appear to be several reasonable methods available that would not require any assistance from Republicans. Perhaps he should demonstrate his commitment to faithful execution of the laws -- all of them -- by employing every reasonably proposed approach (tailored bonds, special coin, etc.).
Bob from Ohio : “He will get the lion’s share of blame by voters”
Nope. Not even close. It will be one of those GOP government shutdown political disasters multiplied by a factor of ten. I bet you thought all of them were political winners, Bob – right until they exploded in your face. Same thing here, only much, much, worse.
It's pretty easy when you have the entire Soros-funded media cheerleading for your side, isn't it?
More antisemitism.
"all of them were political winners, Bob – right until they exploded in your face."
After 1996 shutdown, GOP picked up 2 senate seats. After the 2013 shutdown, GOP picked up 9!! senate seats.
Some explosion!
That’s pretty weak, Bob. It’s like the fools who say abortion wasn’t a drag on the GOP in the midterms because this or that Republican still won an election. Who’s dumbass enough to believe “logic” on that level?
You are apparently. So go ahead and cause massive destruction to the United States economy. Do it to appease the GOP’s microscope majority in the House and it’s loony-tunes caucus. Do it for demands everyone knows you didn’t win at the ballot box. Biden will take some dramatic action to protect the nation’s citizens (even if premised on shaky grounds).
And we’ll see who gets the rightful blame. Probably the government shutdowns by 20X, not 10X. The Right went into the last midterms with probably the best set-up I’ve seen in my sixty years. They blew it because they’re toxic contemptible clowns. But apparently you, Bob, want to stay the course, toxic contemptible clown-wise.
But of course. You’re in it for the entertainment. That’s pretty common with the Right today.
"Right went into the last midterms with probably the best set-up I’ve seen in my sixty years"
1994 and 2010 say hello.
Pardon me if I don't credit your infallible wisdom.
In your sweaty need for a pithy rejoinder, you miss the point in a big way. The recent midterms should have been 1994. They should have been 2010. That those results didn’t occur wasn’t because Biden’s approval rating were too high, or the people’s undying love for inflation so great.
It was because the GOP opposition is a rancid reeking joke. And your (Bob’s) solution? More posturing. More childish irresponsibly. More tinhorn gimmicks. More rants & raving. More rancid. More reeking. And the same sad squalid joke. That’s what’s behind this latest bit of right-wing theater, except there's a major chance of doing extreme harm this time.
But – hey – you think it’ll be fun, really own those libs, separate the rinos from the MAGA-faithful, and whatever other pro wrestling-style thrills constitute “policy” in your mind. Please don’t be surprised when this explodes in your face….
"More rants & raving."
You are the only one ranting & raving.
Biden already backed away from the "no negotiating with hostage takers" position. Because his people don't know what the political effects would be.
You moved the goal posts anyway, you started with "GOP government shutdown political disasters" but I showed they weren't really political disasters, 2014 was a resounding victory in fact.
Agreed. The plan is to deliberately crash the economy so that Biden will get blamed. It's unclear whether it will work out this way, but that's clearly the plan.
Or Biden could be a serious individual and make a deal to raise the debt ceiling before that happens.
I mean, it worked for the Democrats in 2020, didn't it?
I would think that if Congress passes two incompatible laws – one law authorizing certain money to be spent and another law (or laws) failing to raise the needed money, then something has to give. One law must be given preference to the other.
If, thanks to Congress’s decisions (or indecisions), there’s not enough money in the Treasury to pay the money Congress has appropriated, then Congress has by necessary implication given the President the necessary authority to spend only so much money as was authorized, that is, to make cuts in the authorized appropriations so the money in the Treasury doesn’t run out.
Unless the President gets a loan from Bahrain (implausible but not impossible) or issues U. S. bonds on his own authority (unconstitutional), then he’ll have to act as I said and make cuts in what Congress has appropriated.
I guess he’ll start with the easy cuts such as appropriations for Republican districts, then he’ll cut the Park Service, but that probably won’t be enough, so he’ll go on to cut things like the military, govt benefits, etc.
Not the same as default, just hard choices.
Anyone want to weigh in on whether Biden mints a trillion dollar platinum coin? (Or some other size or other metal.)
It’s less obviously illegal than selling unauthorized bonds.
The only other legal choice for Biden would be good faith negotiations. But then 50% of the population might get representational input into what the government does. And we know treating that half of the public like full, first class American citizens isn’t the Democrat way.
My only prediction is that whatever happens, it will make you very angry.
So you think Democrats will do something utterly lawless and profoundly dismissive of the other half of the country then?
I was actually expecting that not to happen this time, given there aren’t many legal options and the obviously illegal ones are destructive to the Federal capacity to borrow — something Democrats need to maintain.
Maybe Democrats will have Garland arrest enough Republicans to give the Democrats a majority in the House. I wonder if any Democrat would have anything negative to say about that.
No, I think you’re committed to being angry about those libs no matter what happens.
I don't think you know or care about illegal or legal, you just want to be angry in a partisan way.
You've become very good at it; it's now reality independent. Every single possible outcome in the panoply of the multiverse results in you becoming enraged and posting about it.
So you think Democrats will do something utterly lawless and profoundly dismissive of the other half of the country then?
Does the Republican position really represent half of the country? Republicans got elected, by majority or plurality in enough places to have narrow control of the House, but that doesn't mean that everyone that voted for those Republicans is going to agree with everything that the Republican Party wants to do. Nor would the fact that Democrats won elections mean that all of their voters will agree with everything Democrats want to do. Politicians should always remember that getting elected isn't the end of listening to what a majority of the people want and acting accordingly.
Dismissing 45% or 40% of the population isn’t legitimate either. The Democrat mentality of governing with zero regard (or negative regard) for half (or a fraction approaching half) of the population will be the end of America unless Democrats stop it.
The debt ceiling is a good test. Democrats can either do something obviously illegal and destructive, or work with the representatives of the other half of the country on a compromise.
Supreme Court Justice Merrick Garland says hello.
The corrupt AG? Keeping him off the court saved America from decades of corrupt Supreme Court decisions.
Dumb but they did it too arguments don’t make Democrats' behavior legitimate. Granted though, at their absolute worst Republicans can sometimes be as bad as Democrats are every day.
Ben_, I think you have both your premises and your percentages wrong. And you seem weak on American constitutionalism.
To me it looks like policy had been successfully dismissing about 20%–30% of the country for decades, maybe since the Civil War. Folks got so used to it that it became a norm. Unless you numbered yourself among the dismissed, it was sort of happening on auto-pilot.
But then it dawned on Trump that an open appeal to the dismissed could give him rock solid swing-vote control of the right wing in American politics. After that, Trump found out by experiment that his seething minority demanded not a fairer application of American constitutionalism, but an end to it. To give Trump credit, that kind of success probably surprised him as much as it did the rest of the center-right. But Trump decided to go for it.
Seems like you suppose that adds up to a case that the formerly-dismissed minority ought to be running the nation. You can't be surprised if a majority disagrees. Other folks conclude it means the the former status quo was a wiser way to run things. Failed attempts at treason turn out to be bad marketing for minority viewpoints. Maybe reconcile yourself to try another approach.
The only other legal choice for Biden would be good faith negotiations.
Today I read a report that claimed that Republicans rejected all of the Democrat proposals to raise revenue (mostly by limiting deductions and credits from what I understood). That is not negotiating in good faith, because Republicans are basically not receptive to offering anything in return for the spending cuts other than raising the debt limit. It is completely a "give us what we want or we nuke the U.S. economy."
How many votes for tax increases in the House or Senate?
If Democrats think tax increases might pass, they should write the language into a bill and hold a vote.
If Democrats think tax increases might pass, they should write the language into a bill and hold a vote.
That you said that without irony is astounding. I'd love for that to happen. Include the spending cuts Republicans want and crisis solved.
Exactly. Except maybe not. Suggest that to the looney caucus and they will try to slash social security and call it a spending cut.
Tell Schumer to write that bill and hold a vote if you think it will pass.
The issue is more political than Constitutional. If a President does something dumb and has little or no support in Congress, that President can be impeached and removed from office; however, removal from office also has an effect on upcoming elections.
Joe Biden the dream opponent in 2024: he currently enjoys the supported of a tiny fraction of the voting public (< 30% as of today) and, while he could easily be removed from office, that would make some other candidate -- perhaps a more worthy candidate -- the opponent. The irony is to be appreciated: Biden's clout in debt negotiations results from his ineptitude!
How could Biden easily be removed from office?
Also, if Donald Trump remains the only opponent Biden could beat, that would indeed imply Biden was one of the two weakest candidates ever to run for the presidency. But who would suppose comparably bad outcomes in terms of presidential service?
At the Balkanization blog there is an interesting article by Joseph Fishkin discussing tactics Biden could use to get the nation out of the debt ceiling crisis. One of them, which Fishkin favors, would be use of something called, "consol bonds," a term which was new to me, and which I will not try to explain. Check Balkinization.com to see it explained.
It was an interesting discussion. I have a question for anyone familiar with how bond markets work. If the the Biden administration decided to avoid the debt ceiling by issuance of consol bonds, what would be the expected effects on bond prices and interest rates more generally? Because I think there may not be much recent experience to go on, even informed speculation about what logically ought to happen would be welcome.
For those who remain fans of negotiating policy preferences by threats to wreck the good faith and credit of the United States, the article suggests Biden might be able to use the consols without running afoul of any laws.
The article also asks the provocative question, given demands for compliance with contradictory laws, what principle insists on privileging the debt ceiling law ahead of any of the others?
“what principle insists on privileging the debt ceiling law ahead of any of the others?”
That’s actually painfully simple: Only Congress, constitutionally, has the power to authorize the nation going deeper into debt. The debt ‘ceiling’ law is just Congress exercising that power by authorizing the issuance of a certain amount of debt in advance.
So violating the debt ‘ceiling’ law is actually violating the Constitution by usurping this power solely given to Congress.
By contrast, not spending money that was appropriated isn’t unconstitutional, every President up to Nixon did it, it was considered a routine exercise of Presidential authority. It’s just contrary to a statute Congress passed in 1974.
I've been following the articles at Balkanization, and corresponding with the authors. Their absolute devotion to doing anything, no matter how dubious, to avoid spending less, is remarkable. They seem to have a mental block on the topic, cutting spending is so unthinkable to them they can't treat it as a possible response to hitting the debt ceiling.
What makes this really amazing is that we're only talking undoing some recent spending increases, and reverting to 2018 spending levels. Remember, current spending is way out of line with historical norms after WWII, the federal government spending this much of the GDP is NOT a normal state of affairs.
So violating the debt ‘ceiling’ law is actually violating the Constitution by usurping this power solely given to Congress.
Bellmore, this may surprise you, but you have the constitutional reasoning backward. You can derive authority for a law from constitutional mandates. But you seem to want to derive constitutional power from a law.
You do get to say this law trumps those others because I like the political leverage I think I can get from this one. But no one has to listen to you. After all, the other laws will be founded in constitutional principles too. More to the point, the SCOTUS seems unlikely to enforce your longed-for leverage by ordering a default on U.S. debt.