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N.J. Appellate Court Affirms Family Court Judge's Refusal to Order COVID Vaccination
Such family court decisions are generally reviewed with great deference; the court isn't saying the judge's decision is necessarily the correct one, just that it's not clearly incorrect.
From Scott v. Scott, decided Friday by the New Jersey intermediate appellate court (Judges Whipple, Mawla and Walcott-Henderson):
Plaintiff Jenna Scott appeals from an August 29, 2022 Family Part order denying her application to administer the COVID-19 vaccine to minor children she shares with defendant, Geoffrey Scott, over his objection. The trial court conducted an extensive plenary hearing and addressed the best interests of the children. We affirm the order, finding no abuse of discretion by the trial court.
The parties are parents of three minor children and, following their separation, they entered into a written custody and parenting agreement. Under this agreement, the parties share joint legal and physical custody of their children and all major decisions involving the children are to be made jointly. Plaintiff is designated the parent of primary residence (PPR) of the children. Within weeks of signing this custody agreement, plaintiff filed an order to show cause, seeking temporary sole legal custody so that the two elder children could be vaccinated over defendant's objection. The court denied the order to show cause and scheduled the matter for a plenary hearing.
The court held a four-day plenary hearing with both parties testifying along with two medical experts called by plaintiff: the children's pediatrician and a pediatric hospitalist, who had never examined the children. Both experts testified to the efficacy of the vaccine and recommended that it be administered to the children. Plaintiff testified that medical appointments were generally within her purview and that the children have received all other recommended vaccines and have not had any major side effects. Defendant testified that while he generally supports vaccination against most diseases, he wished to avoid this one because of the novel nature of mRNA vaccines and the potential for unknown long-term side effects.
In a comprehensive written decision, the trial judge summarized the evidence and applied the best interests of the child factors set forth in N.J.S.A. 9:2-4(c). The court also noted that the children have all previously contracted COVID-19 and recovered, without issue, and that the parties otherwise agree that the children are permitted to travel, socialize, and attend school without masks or other restrictions.
In applying the best interests factors, the trial court concluded that plaintiff failed to meet her burden of proof that the COVID-19 vaccine is in the children's best interests. The trial court was not convinced by plaintiff's testimony that she wanted the children to be vaccinated because of fear of contracting the virus since neither party took any other precautions to prevent infection.
On appeal, plaintiff submits that the trial court ignored evidence and precedent regarding the weight to be given to guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and unchallenged testimony from her experts. Specifically, she contends that: 1) the court failed to consider the children's "medical best interests" and instead applied a more general "best interests" standard that was inappropriate; 2) mischaracterized plaintiff's testimony as partially motivated by animosity towards defendant; and 3) failed to give proper weight to the testimony of her expert witnesses. Essentially, plaintiff's argument is that she should prevail based upon the uncontroverted testimony of her experts regarding the efficacy of the vaccine and her role as PPR.
We accord "great deference to discretionary decisions of Family Part judges[,]" "in recognition of the family courts' special jurisdiction and expertise in family matters …." This deference extends to matters of child custody. Purely legal questions, however, are reviewed de novo, without special deference. Finally, a family court's decision must be supported by competent evidence in the record….
In this matter, the parties share joint legal custody of their three children, by agreement. Under such an agreement, all decisions regarding the children, including those concerning their health, must be shared equally, regardless of the fact that plaintiff is the PPR…. Precedent definitively establishes that consideration of a child's best interests is appropriate in vaccination disputes…. Thus, when presented with a choice between parents' rights and those of children, the court must choose the children's best interests.
The parties' custody and parenting time agreement provides in pertinent part as follows: "[T]he parties shall make all major decisions respecting the children's health … and general welfare in a united fashion. Neither party shall have any greater decision-making power with respect to such matters …." This language is clear evidence of the parties' intent at the time they entered into the custody agreement.
Given the parties' dispute regarding the vaccine, the trial court undertook an analysis of each of the N.J.S.A. 9:2-4(c) best interests factors, which controlled here. For these reasons, we reject plaintiff's argument that a different standard of the children's "medical best interests" should have applied and superseded the statutory factors. The best interests standard set forth in the statute already includes factors that speak to a child's medical wellbeing, including "the needs of the child …." The trial court neither abused its discretion nor erred as a matter of law in considering the statutory best interests factors….
The trial court observed that neither party had taken significant precautions against the virus, and that the impetus for the present suit was—at least partially—plaintiff's desire to take the children to a sporting event, which required attendees be vaccinated. Our review of the record does not convince us the judge misinterpreted plaintiff's testimony.
Finally, as to expert testimony, a finder of fact is free to accept or reject the testimony of any party's expert or accept only a portion of an expert's opinion. "[T]he weight to be given to the evidence of experts is within the competence of the fact-finder." We "defer to the trial court's assessment of expert evaluations."
The trial judge explained his reasoning in declining to follow the recommendation of plaintiff's experts as follows:
While [the experts] stated the vaccine is well-tested and safe, the [c]ourt recognizes the ages of the children and the fact that the vaccine is not mandatory is critical to this analysis….
[T]he experts did not go into depth in their testimony [to describe] how the vaccine works, potential side effects[,] or even how the research was conducted to develop the vaccine.
The judge's ultimate assessment of the testimony was explained and supported by the record. We discern no abuse of discretion in either the credibility findings or the factual findings warranting our intervention….
Congratulations to Alyssa M. Clemente (Laufer, Dalena, Jensen, Bradley & Doran, LLC, attorneys), who argued the case for the father, and Gregory D.R. Behringer, who was on the brief with her.
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Saved that kids life.
Trump promoted the booster. So you will allow Trump to insert his dirty cock up your butthole…but you won’t take the jab??
I have yet to know someone who is 100% right 100% of the time.
I evaluate everyone on a case by case basis.
You're even stupider than the real Sam Brankman-Fried
lol you sound vaxxed and boosted
FYI, I'm a Heritage, Non-GMO, Organic American.
Pure of blood, Pure of heart.
WuFlu, the gift from China that keeps on giving.
The gift from Fauci and the CDC since they were funding it.
For me this is the key paragraph:
And both children already had it.
That's the key point so far as I'm concerned. The medico-legal community's relentless insistence on ignoring whether you've already had covid before in deciding whether or not you should get the vaccine has killed their credibility. They're not making these recommendations on the science anymore, they're making them on the politics and warping the science to agree with the politics.
Your continued insistence that that's relevant would kill your credibility if you had any.
Brett continued insistence that having covid provides better immunity than vaccination is very well established. The lack of credibility comes from individuals that insist otherwise contrary to well known data.
Except it's not well established at all.
Except your sacred mRNA gene therapy product vaccines have been shown to not confer any long term immunity (esp since Omicron pushed out Delta in 12/21 in this country). They provide immunity to the Wuhan spike proteins, but that is the big thing that Omicron did - it mutated around the vaccines by changing its spike proteins. That is the danger of building up immunities to just one small piece of a virus. A majority of those catching COVID-19 these days have been vaccinated. We have known since 7/21 that breakthrough of the vaccine induced immunity was very possible, with the Provincetown Superspreader event, and that was with the Delta variant.
We're talking about vaccine versus natural immunity, not the vaccine versus variants.
My point, that you seemed to miss, was that the mRNA vaccines had some efficacy against the variants up through Delta. Almost none against Omicron. There was a 100% mismatch between the proteins generated by the mRNA vaccines, and any part of the Omicron variant viruses.
If someone hadn’t had the mRNA vaccines before catching pre-Omicron COVID-19, then their natural immunities worked fine for most with the Omicron variant. These kids were just fine, unvaccinated, with natural immunities. Plus, they are in the age cohort where COVID-19 wasn’t going to kill them (1 or 2 per million). Vaccinating them wouldn’t help their immune response to the virus (it might even reduce the effects of their natural immunities), but would open them to the deadly side effects.
You do realize young people could get myocarditis from Covid at least through Delta??
@Dumbman-Fried: You’re too dumb and ignorant to realize that people get myocarditis from the gene therapy rather than COVID.
There is no "gene therapy," you halfwit imbecile. And, as always, you're wrong about everything. (Maybe you'll do the thing you did with Thomas's ethics problems and attack everyone for talking about them and then eventually go actually read the statute and realize you were wrong?) COVID causes myocarditis.
No, you see, we want people to NOT catch covid, which is why we prefer people to be vaccinated, to reduce the chances of that happening.
Nige - it is well established. You would know that if you looked at the raw data, not the spin.
Yeah, if you look at the raw data and don't have a clue what you're doing you can claim any old thing.
Or, in your case, you can claim anything out of complete ignorance.
Have you looked at my raw data? No? STFU.
Yes, for people like yourself who have no expertise in anything, but watch a few YouTube videos and pretend that it's Doing Your Own Research.
Whoa. One can make a case that there’s suspenders-plus-belt type advantage to getting the vaccine when you’ve got naturally acquired resistance. Not a good enough case to justify authoritarian measures, but at least there's some rational basis.
But your implied claim that having had the virus is irrelevant is astonishing. Even Team Fauci didn’t claim that. You’re not just denying science, you’re denying your own side’s Science.
"Team Fauci" seldom came out and explicitly said that, but every policy they actually adopted was based on that premise.
For instance, if you'd previously had Covid, and decided it was a smart move to be boosted? Nope, sorry, you couldn't get the booster, you had to get the full two shot series, because the policy was absolute: Boosters only for the previously vaccinated.
What good is a booster for a vaccine you haven't had?
Yeah, that's the kind of question that you only ask if you have no understanding of immunology AT ALL.
How do you think vaccines work, anyway? Are they full of disease fighting nano-bots, or something like that?
No, they simulate your getting infected with the pathogen, so that your immune system responds just as it would if you got infected. Only without most of the risk and symptoms of an actual infection. And generally with a less variable result, admittedly.
The outcome of a well designed vaccine is a person who is essentially indistinguishable, biologically, from somebody who had the disease. If given two people, one of whom had covid, and the other who got vaccinated for it, telling the apart with biological tests would be very difficult. The main difference is that the person who'd actually HAD covid would have a broader spectrum of antibodies, since vaccines typically focus on what the designers think is the pathogen's weak spot, while the immune system just goes after everything that doesn't look like it belongs in the body.
So, the answer to your question is: Exactly as much good as they are to somebody who got vaccinated, moron.
‘The outcome of a well designed vaccine is a person who is essentially indistinguishable, biologically, from somebody who had the disease’
Except without catching the disease. Which makes it a categorically different process than getting infected with the disease. Which suggests to me that boosters are part of a treatment that requires the first vaccination to work optimally, or at all, not a previous infection.
Ideally a vaccinated person would be in a better position immunicologically than a person who had the disease. In some cases thety may be indistinguishable. In others they may not. There is nothing to be taken for granted in any of this.
Ideally, yes. In the real world? Not so often.
Boosters are just a small dose given to get the immune system all hyped up again, and the reason for it being a small dose are the same no matter how you came by your immunity: Because a full dose is more likely to cause bad side effects.
An already primed immune system responds aggressively to a new exposure to the antigen. Great if somebody just sneezed in your face. Not so great if somebody just injected a bolus of the antigen directly into your bloodstream.
I’m not sure you have what boosters do correct, Brett.
I’m quite sure you have exaggerated the general secondary immune response to them.
Except that there is a lot of bait and switch going on with these mRNA gene therapy product vaccines. The average effective vaccine teaches the immune system that any of the unique proteins in the virus are pathogens. The mRNA vaccines taught that two of them are pathogens - the two Wuhan spike proteins. Most immune systems learn that with the first shot, and with the boosters, what you have are immune systems, taught by the first shot that the two Wuhan spikes are pathogens, reacting vigorously to the Wuhan spike proteins generated by the 2nd and subsequent shots. Unfortunately, the bivalent vaccines didn’t help at all, because they still contained the Wuhan spike generating mRNA.
For most people there was never a need for a booster of any sort to teach immune systems that the two Wuhan spike proteins were pathogens. They learned that with the massive, long lasting, deluge of such proteins in the first shot. And that is part of the bait and switch. Normal vaccines provide just enough genetic material to teach the immune system that those unique genes identify pathogens, and are quickly, over a day or two, neutralized and eliminated from the body. The mRNA in the vaccines are peculiarly, and intentionally, long lived, surviving sometimes in the body for several months, churning out Wuhan (and later, with the Bivalent vaccines, also Omicron) spike proteins the whole time. Their apparent purpose is to “keep your antibodies up”. That means churning out specialized killer cells and the like keyed to react to and destroy the spike proteins - for months at a time. The purpose then is not to teach your immune system about the pathogen (which traditional vaccines do), but rather to keep a significantly elevated antibody count up for an extended period of times, fighting the spike proteins generated by the mRNA.
“The mRNA in the vaccines are peculiarly, and intentionally, long lived, surviving sometimes in the body for several months, churning out Wuhan (and later, with the Bivalent vaccines, also Omicron) spike proteins the whole time.”
One of the interesting admissions that came out from one of the mRNA vaccine makers was that the target of the mRNA was the lymph glands, and that they designed the vaccines to not break down at the injection site, as is the case with ordinary vaccines. One of the ways that they did that was with the construction of the capsid containing the mRNA – it is essentially invisible to the immune system. It’s also toxic, and similar chemically to antifreeze. The problem there is that this was equivalent to using a sledge hammer – much of the mRNA passed through the lymphatic system, entering the blood stream, circulating throughout the body, and lodging in inconvenient locations. Those capsids (containing the mRNA) can apparently also cross the blood/brain barrier, which is apparently quite a feat.
The other part of this is that the mRNA utilized is artificial. DNA has two strands known as polynucleotides as they are composed of simpler monomeric units called nucleotides. Each nucleotide is composed of one of four nitrogen-containing nucleobases (cytosine [C], guanine [G], adenine [A] or thymine [T]), a sugar called deoxyribose, and a phosphate group. RNA has a single polynucleotide, with the Thymines (T) converted to Uridines (U) (actually, historically, it was the reverse conversion that stabilized the chains and made DNA possible). The problem is that RNA is supposed to stay in the cell, and the immune system destroys it, if found outside a cell. It’s also relatively unstable. This was addressed by switching Uridines (U) for Pseudouridines (Ψ), which are more stable, and help make the mRNA relatively invisible to the immune system. But regular Pseudouridine (Ψ) wobble bonds, on occasion to other than the usual Adenine(A). This was solved by using N1-Methylpseudouridine (m1Ψ) instead. This substitution effectively hides the mRNA in the vaccines from the immune system, while making it much more stable, being detected months after injection, instead of breaking down or being destroyed by the immune system in short order, as is the case with natural mRNA.
I haven’t seen yet an admission, or even a strong case, for why this N1-Methylpseudouridine (m1Ψ) substitution was made. It could have been for ease of manufacturing, transportation, and storage. Or, maybe more sinisterly, was part of the plan to get the mRNA to the lymphatic system, or to keep the mRNA churning out spike proteins indefinitely.
‘no matter how you came by your immunity:’
A vaccine followed by a booster is a course of treatment; catching covid then getting a booster is not.
Bruce, all your questions answered with one quick Google search:
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acscentsci.1c00197
Looks like you're wrong about them persisting for months. Anyway, why is your instinct always to assume "sinister" motives? That's why this country is so dysfunctional at the moment.
Interesting article. It’s fairly obsolete (published in 4/21, just as the vaccines were being ramped up (in the 65-75 age bracket, I had just had my second jab)). Nevertheless, it does answer the question, at some level, of why N1-Methylpseudouridine (m1Ψ) was utilized, instead of the naturally occurring Uridine (U). It reduced the immune response to the manufactured mRNA, and increased its half life. Which is to say that they wanted to minimize the destruction of the mRNA by the immune system, allowing it to generate (many) more spike proteins for much longer (that’s what “half life” means).
You don’t find the mRNA (and it’s generated spike proteins) if you don’t look for them. The FDA waived the CDC required “shed test” that likely would have shown both mRNA and spike proteins long after receiving a jab, in the name of speed. Why do I say that? Because study after study looking for them have found them - fairly routinely at 60 days, and sometimes at 90 days.
Detecting the spike proteins has gotten much easier, with the introduction of a stain that shines when detected. What is a bit scary are photos of cancer cells, shining brightly, chock full of spike proteins. But there are being found all over the place: in heart muscles from myocarditis victims, in veins and arteries, in reproductive cells, even in the brain, having crossed the blood/brain barrier.
As for assuming sinister motives - maybe I go too far. Gross incompetence is probably a better explanation, compounded by bureaucratic power grabbing. The revolving door between the big pharmacy companies (e.g. Pfizer here) and the FDA probably didn’t help. That agency essentially turned a blind eye to the side effects from the vaccines. They never have been adequately tested, and no previous vaccine with even 10% of the reported side effects would ever have been approved, and approval was yanked for far less. Despite this, they did require Pfizer to do a post EUA approval study on myocarditis and pericarditis side effects. The study closed in 6/22, with results due by the end of the year. We haven’t see them yet - the FDA granted their request for an extension of time to 6/23. I would expect the agency to feel some sort of urgency, given the spate of heart attacks in late teen and 20 something elite athletes - a demographic that should never have been vaccinated in the first place, given how extremely the virus kills that demographic.
And how many lives would you have been willing to sacrifice to do all those tests? You keep forgetting what's on the other side of the ledger. It could've been you in the first half of 2021, had the vaccines been six months later. Would you have sacrificed your life so the rest of us could've done a shed test?
Anyway, it sounds like you just invented a new cancer treatment, so bravo on that one!
Speaking of not understanding how vaccines work.
For an inactivated or live-virus type vaccine, that would be true, but not for an mRNA-based vaccine.
Getting the illness presents your immune system with every possible antigen that the virus make present. It’s unpredictable which ones your immune system will target, and so for Covid the specter antigens might include the spike proteins conveyed by the vaccine, but then again, it might not.
Best practice in that case is the full two doses, since we cannot be sure that the persons immune system is primed against the spike proteins or not. Best to be sure.
Not really, since side effects really start with the second jab, and get worse with later ones. Yes, you can get side effects on the first jab. I know a guy who had chest pains after the first jab. He was required to take a second one. He requested a waiver, due to the side effects. That was denied. After the second jab, his heart essentially doubled in size. They then required a booster. Again, he requested a waiver, and it was again denied. He sued, and last I knew, his being fired was enjoined by the court pending trial.
But the incidence of serious side effects appears to explode with the second and subsequent jabs. Most of these side effects appear to be the result of immune systems attacking cells containing spike proteins that have migrated to inconvenient locations in the body. Kill enough heart muscle cells, and you get heart failure trough myocarditis. Etc.
The point here is that the massive immune response to the spike proteins in second and subsequent jabs indicates that that immune system learned it’s lesson too well from the first jab - that the spike proteins were antigens, and needed to be eliminated, pronto.
There are, of course, no "serious side effects."
Dylan Mulvaney was a red blooded American male before getting vaccinated.
“Team Fauci” seldom came out and explicitly said that, but every policy they actually adopted was based on that premise.
Well, it would be more accurate to say it suited their purposes if people believed that premise. Their actual reasons were different.
Their actual reasons: Unfortunately, the public health profession seems to have developed an ethical code with some problematic items:
(1) They believe saving lives overrides all other considerations.
(2) When things are uncertain, everyone must go with “best practices”.
From these premises, the rest of their ethical code follows:
(3) Instead of saying what is strictly true, you must say what will get people to comply with important public health measures.
(4) It’s OK to do this even if you yourself aren’t totally sure about the measures, because they are currently declared best practice.
(5) Even truthful or reasonable disagreement confuses people and reduces compliance with best practices. Truth can be a public health threat!
That’s what Team Fauci believes.
'Unfortunately, the public health profession seems to have developed an ethical code with some problematic items'
No, they presented the best information they had at at any given time during a highly volatile developing situation where clear cimmuniction was crucial and when the information was updated or changed, they presented the updated or changed information. Not saying they didn't mess up here and there, but there's no reason to believe they weren't acting in good faith.
'Even truthful or reasonable disagreement'
Yeah, let's rewrite history to make believe that's what it was like.
I didn’t say they were operating in bad faith. On the contrary, they were so convinced of their righteousness that they believed that the bigger truth of their cause had to be guarded by lies. Downright Churchillian.
The following is from articles I checked today on Reuters and Washington Post, so don’t bother with denials and requests for cites.
Fauci himself has admitted – and it’s still up on Reuters and the Washington Post, in articles defending him – that his March 2020 statement that “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is” was motivated by a desire to prevent a shortage of masks for health care workers. He has also admitted that his “change in thinking” was not about virus transmission through mask material, it was because he realized there was no longer a shortage.
No reason.
All of which was in good faith, for a person who believed getting masks to nurses was more important than telling the truth to the public. They thought the truth as they believed it: that they're somewhat effective but right now nurses have priority - was too complicated for us, and that we couldn't be trusted to do the right thing.
As a member of that public, I now understand his ethical system and will judge his and his team’s future statements accordingly, including their backers on the Internet.
The pandemic proved Fauci right about a lot of things, but this is probably the most important. You all proved emphatically that you can't be trusted to do the right thing.
And you can be trusted to continue to lie, as when you said, knowing better, that Fauci and his ilk “presented the best information they had at any given time”.
When did I say that?
I think you're right about all of this. But what would you have done? Just let everyone die?
The answer was to vaccinate those at extreme risk, such as the elderly and those with multiple major comorbidities, and not recommend, or even allow, the vaccines for those with negligible risk of death from the virus. There was never any rationale reason to vaccinate anyone under, say, 60, absent major comorbidities.
Sure there was! The point of the vaccine was not to protect the recipients, it was to reduce transmission through the population. If you just vaccinate the old people, then everyone else becomes a disease "reservoir" or whatever they were calling it.
There would've been many more deaths under your plan, hundreds of thousands at least. Are you saying that would've been the better tradeoff?
During the Delta death surge the median age of death actually declined and so the vaccines were protecting older people that got vaccinated and so people clearly got the age cutoff wrong…oops. And myocarditis is something young people get from Covid and everyone ended up getting Covid although I don’t think they have the data updated for Omicron. Everyone could have been vaccinated by May 2021 and so when did myocarditis become a concern?? And in June 2021 when we the news broke about myocarditis iirc it was under 100 people with serious cases out of millions of people vaccinated and so these people just didn’t want to get vaccinated.
What venues are still requiring vaccination?
Hawaii shows the vaccines did their job but with Omicron even the unvaccinated have immunity because it is so highly transmissible. So it looks like vaccines and masking saved lives through Delta. The only thing we don’t know is that Covid is linked to myocarditis in young people and so we don’t know how bad it gets with Omicron but in early variants getting myocarditis was 11 times higher getting the virus instead of getting the vaccine.
This is some rather tortured logic. A cleaner interpretation is that the vaccines were just not very effective, as evidenced by the fact that ultimately everyone became infected, vaccinated or not.
Some day the dust will settle (I give it a decade) and we will learn the real story. I predict that the vaccines will be found to have been almost completely irrelevant in preventing the spread of the virus, and only mildly effective in suppressing severe symptoms -- maybe 30% effective.
No, Hawaii has the least amount of natural immunity because it doesn’t have an interstate highway that runs through it…and so if the vaccines were ineffective it would have been ravaged by Omicron as millions of Covid infected mainlanders visited the last 12 months. Hawaii’s Covid death rate remains low and its excess mortality isn’t any different than the rest of America as Omicron circulates amongst its population. The vaccines clearly mitigated severity through Delta and masks mitigated spread through Delta. The data is easily accessible and there is no need to wait more than 12 months to evaluate it.
Yeah, but you're ignoring the effect of things like comorbidity, vitamin D levels, the influence of spending most of your time outdoors on transmission rates. It wasn't just isolation protecting Hawaii.
Hawaii is one of the lowest ranking states on obesity and diabetes, and basically only sunlight averse Hawaiians are short on D. Covid was never going to hit Hawaii hard.
Lol, no. Vermont has a very low Covid death rate too and apparently it is known as the Sunshine State?!? Hawaii has a low rate because it doesn’t have an interstate that runs through it and because the border with Canada was closed Vermont essentially shut down their interstate. Both populations then got vaccinated. It’s funny all of the rationalizations you people do because you just can’t admit the experts got most things correct unlike after 9/11 when you trusted the experts and people like me didn’t.
It depends on what you mean here. If you mean “how many people ultimately became infected with some variant of COVID” then yeah, the vaccines didn’t do much because as COVID completes its transition into just another variant of the common cold, basically everyone is going to get it if they haven’t already.
But if you allow for the vaccines’ role in slowing the spread as opposed to preventing it completely, I think the data is clear that they played a major role in slowing the rate of infection, especially over the course of 2021. That had two positive outcomes: alleviating the strain on hospitals, and postponing many people’s initial case of COVID down the road to when the prevalent variant was less deadly and more treatments were available. That includes both vaccinated and unvaccinated people… a slower infection rate means fewer people getting infected across the board. The second effect in particular saved many lives, in the millions, separately from the vaccines’ role in reducing the severity of infection.
To the extent there’s any counterargument, it’s this: we don’t know what would’ve happened to the virus’s evolutionary track without the influence of the vaccines. You probably could concoct a theory under which the arrival of Omicron was hastened by the vaccines, and its higher transmissibility actually caused more infections and deaths than would’ve otherwise happened.
Look at me, spinning up a right-wing conspiracy theory on the spot! At least this one doesn’t require all Democrats to be demonic pedophiles in disguise. You’re welcome.
Omicron ended the pandemic. And iirc Omicron popped up first in South Africa with a very low vaccination rate and so I very seriously doubt the vaccines created Omicron because natural immunity doesn’t protect from reinfection with Covid…like the vaccines it just protects against severe illness.
The initial quote is correct—pretty much everyone has had Covid and so vaccines seemingly didn’t mitigate spread. So the vaccines did two things—mitigate severity of Delta and probably mitigated spread through Delta and thus saved lives as Omicron isn’t severe while allowing the medical community to develop therapeutics and hone best practices treating Covid. So an anti-vaxxer could now only argue that the vaxxers got lucky because Omicron bailed them out but they were playing with fire because Omicron could have been worse than Delta in which case the vaccines would have been useless against a more deadly variant. Now that is a question for the next pandemic but to say the experts got lucky this time just means they saved a lot of lives with luck which I think everyone will take!
Technically possible but biologically unlikely. The trajectory for new diseases is to get steadily more transmissible and less severe. Killing people is an evolutionary disadvantage. That's why we have so many viruses that end up landing in the same place: the common cold. COVID'll end up there too.
But didn’t Fauci just say that Covid didn’t behave like other viruses?? So once vaccinated or infected then that should have been the end of it, right?? But that’s not how it played out.
Randal 16 hours ago
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Omicron could have been worse than Delta
"Technically possible but biologically unlikely. The trajectory for new diseases is to get steadily more transmissible and less severe. "
Which makes the case that the vaccine had a large positive effect on reducing the death rate suspect. Note that the per capita death rate in the 3rd major wave compared to the per capita death rate in the 2nd major wave was in the historical normal range. If 80plus% of the at risk population was vaxed, then why was the death rate within the normal historical range instead of substantially lower.
Are you sure you mean per capita death rate? If true, that could be explained quite easily by the increased transmissibility of Omicron. But I have no idea what data you're looking at.
The problem there is that mRNA vaccination reduced the effects of natural immunity, esp if vaccinated before catching the actual virus. We know this because most of those who repeatedly catch the virus were vaccinated first. It is likely due to a phenomenon known as Immune Imprinting, or Original Antigenic Sin (OAS). Immune system imprinting of pathogens is much less effective when it comes to closely related pathogens. Omicron has different spike proteins than those generated by the original vaccines, which is what the was deeply imprinted on those who were mRNA vaccinated before catching COVID-19.
Interestingly, one theory, accepted by some scientists, is that the mRNA vaccines caused Omicron. RNA respiratory viruses, like SARS-CoV-2 (that causes COVID-19), quickly and continually mutate. Most of these mutations are suboptimal, if not fatal, but some are advantageous over the virus they are mutating from. Usually, that means less lethal and more infectious. But here, we have very effective mutations - the Omicron (and later) variants have different spike proteins, from the Wuhan variant spike proteins utilized in the mRNA vaccines. This provided a distinct evolutionary advantage over the Delta variant, that they replaced in this country, in 12/21. Any Delta variant virus that attacked someone who had been vaccinated, was met by an immune system that already recognized the virus as a pathogen, and could immediately produce the needed antibodies - unless they had been vaccinated recently, and their antibody levels were already up. But Omicron has different spike proteins that wouldn’t trigger an immediate immune response. And thus, the basis of the theory that the Wuhan spike generating mRNA vaccines pushed evolution towards a mutation that has different spike proteins.
Who cares?? Hawaii has low natural immunity and it still has a low Covid death rate just like any number of states that could restrict travel or effectively restrict travel like Vermont.
I would ask though why did Omicron so quickly push out Delta in the country? It did so faster than Delta had pushed out its predecessors 4 months earlier. And it did so faster here than in its native South Africa. The answer is most likely that the mRNA vaccines, generating Wuhan variant spike proteins, did nothing to slow it down.
Who cares?? The people that got vaccinated were protected from Delta which is why populations that avoided earlier waves with mitigation measures and vaccines have significantly lower Covid death rates. Berenson always argued that every population would end up with similar age adjusted Covid death rates because everything was merely delaying the inevitable…well populations that avoided waves prior to Omicron have significantly lower Covid death rates than those that didn’t which means there were measures populations could take to mitigate Covid deaths. I listened to Berenson at every step and so I know exactly what he was saying at every step. Oh, and he banned me from his dumb Substack comments section because he fears me!
The Cult of Covid will never end.
I bet you where a mask when you're outside alone. lmao
The pandemic has been over for quite some time…maybe you need to move on with your life and realize that you have now been wrong about another thing this century. The only thing the right wing echo chamber got right was Terri Shaivo…everything else they have been on the wrong side of history in this century. And Shaivo was brain dead either way but if her family wanted to take care of her they should have been allowed to…marriage isn’t some magical union blessed by Jesus after all.
At what age is a child capable of deciding their gender?
How excited are you that you will get to vote for a Muslim torturer like DeSantis?? Do you masturbate to photos of DeSantis while imagining him torturing Muslims at Gitmo??
DeSantistein just flew to Israel to sign a law that would make half my comments illegal had I still lived in FL.
I don’t know why you keep thinking I hate the moslems. They’re based as shit. They chunk homo’s off roof tops, they hang drag queens and trannies, no one can force them to bake gay wedding cakes, and the absolute worst of them – a bunch of child raping, cave dwelling, goat fuckers – spent the last twenty years kicking the shit out of the best military Globo Homo could muster with a bunch of rocks and sticks and shit.
And they know how dirty and evil the Jews really are.
I’m a 2016 Trump Republican…you know the guy that said positive things about Planned Parenthood while attacking Jeb! I use common sense and common sense says Islam produces dysfunctional societies in which they kill each other…so why would we sacrifice one American to referee Muslims participating in their favorite hobby of killing other Muslims?? Trump tasked the Taliban with killing ISIS-K…works for me!
https://www.westernjournal.com/poster-boy-vaccination-campaign-dies-suddenly-just-4-years-old/
lol
yeah I was the wrong one on the GMO vaxxes.
I mean, I guess the daily US covid death rate is down to about a hundred people a week, if you want to call that 'over.'
Correction. A day.
You have to look at excess deaths…they are still high but we aren’t seeing huge waves of excess deaths like we saw for the first two years of the pandemic.
No, I don't think you do. 100 a day seems like a lot.
My elderly parents continue to get boosters when recommended. As a healthy under 50 year old I don’t plan on getting more than the 3 Pfizer shots I’ve had. I don’t mask anymore either having stopped a year ago wearing one a few weeks longer than I needed to because I got a cold a year ago and so I wore one until I was 100% recovered from my cold.
Ok, but we aren’t actually post-pandemic.
I believe we are at the stage where some argue it is endemic and others argue we are still in a pandemic.
Endemic is basically the level of infection and mortality you're willing to accept as normal.
Once again, % below poverty level is the biggest factor for a population’s Covid death rate and unfortunately we aren’t doing a good enough job making sure less well off Americans are up to date with their boosters. So I read a clinic was started specifically to treat people in poverty with long Covid and before they knew it the clinic was full of well off older white women. My wealthy educated elderly Trump supporting parents are staying up to date with their boosters but just in general being wealthy in America adds 10 years to one’s life expectancy because that’s how America works.
Btw, using my framework to analyze all of the Covid data I discovered the TN anomaly and so I’ve looked into that state’s data and TN has the wealthiest county in America adjusted for COL and that county is a solid Republican county and it has the highest vaccination rate in TN and the lowest Covid death rate. So the divergence in death rate since the availability of vaccines is really low educated Trump supporters vs everyone else. Unfortunately the last 12 months pretty much every population has not done a good job with boosters which is why you see states with high poverty levels gradually have higher Covid death rates.
Even Fauci admits now that masking did little to slow the spread.
Another dumb lie.
Randal - Buddy's statement is correct, Fauci admitted that masking at best reduced transmission by no more than 10%
So masks do work to reduce transmission.
Nope. Wishful thinking, based on models assuming droplet spread. Except that the time that someone is expelling a lot of droplets containing virons, is when they are symptomatic, and that means those exhibiting symptoms that result in those droplets (like coughing) typically self quarantine. Wearing masks when your are symptomatic might be advantageous preventing the spread through the household, but wearing gloves and sanitizing surfaces is probably more effective.
The first problem is that the virus tends to spread through the air when the carriers are either presymptomatic or asymptomatic, and do so with single virons expelled from them. And the virons, themselves, are an order of magnitude smaller than the holes in N95 grade masks. Several, if not many orders of magnitude smaller than in the scarves and neck gaiters worn by many.
Another big problem is that mask efficacy is based on using them properly. They mostly aren’t. Medical personnel go through training to do so, and that requires frequently changing masks - typically for each patient they see, which often translates to a half dozen times an hour. Few outside the medical profession change their masks for a new one even once an hour.
How many times has Fauci, or Rochelle Walensky, the CDC HEAD, wearing multiple masks, get COVID-19?
Single virons?
Between that and your understanding of how Covid vaccines stick around for months, you are just making up whatever you want, eh?
Just another liar on the Internet.
I just don’t understand the compulsion.
'Wearing masks when your are symptomatic might be advantageous preventing the spread through the household,'
IE wearing masks works.
You guys are just lying. Fauci said masks worked great for the people who wore them. The 10% number came from Bangladesh, where there weren’t even any mask mandates. They (the people doing the study) just stood around handing out masks and were able to get a 10% decline in cases. That’s huge!
Fewer than half the people in the Bangladesh study reported masking, and probably even fewer actually did. That was Fauci’s point: it’s hard to get people to wear masks, so in any large population, the virus is still going to spread, because of the non-maskers.
At least the people wearing masks slowed COVID down for everyone else. Even 10% is a lot of sickness and death avoided, and I'm sure we did better than Bangladesh.
You guys are dipshits who’ll believe anything you see on Facebook.
We have reams of data from our little “experiment” these last several years. All things being equal % below poverty level is the biggest factor in a population’s Covid death rate in America so why does Arizona have the highest death rate?? Everyone knows Arizona was the state that did the least to mitigate spread in 2020…Occam’s Razor!!!
Randal 2 hours ago (edited)
You guys are just lying. Fauci said masks worked great for the people who wore them.
Yes Fauci said masks worked great for people who wore masks - The reality is masks did little to reduce the spread of covid.
You realize how stupid that is right? It's so stupid that it's lying.
"Fauci admits that shooting someone in the face causes negligible injury."
Why do you want to be that asswipe?
I'd like to see the citation for that, because on its face, I'd respond by saying you're a lying cunt.
He’s a lying cunt. But we knew that before today.
If you guys on the right want to convince more people to come over to your side, do better. Lame, easily disproven lies are a huge turn-off. Who wants to be in the party of cultish cunts.
We never found a silver bullet…but a state like Florida could have had a Covid death rate similar to North Carolina had DeSantis been pro-masking. So that means masking as implemented in North Carolina which has as strong an economy as Florida around 20,000 lives could have been saved in Florida. And keep in mind a lot if those excess deaths happened in a period of several weeks during the Delta death surge and so that is like 9/11 in Florida over several weeks.
Florida's death rate wasn't any different from NC once you normalized for the age distribution; Covid is really deadly if you're elderly, and Florida has a LOT of retirees.
As I've related before, statistical analysis taking into account age and comorbidity shows that state policies had basically no statistically significant impact on mortality. It only looked that way if you did a crude analysis because some big states that imposed strict rules happened to have favorable demographics.
Vaccination status mattered a lot, but only for the elderly and the sickly. It was a wash for health middle aged people, and an actual negative for healthy younger folk. We could have vaccinated the elderly and the sick, called it good, and avoided all the political sturm und drang.
I'll admit it took a while to know that was the case for the middle aged, but we had enough data to show that vaccinating children was pointless almost immediately; They just were NOT getting sick from Covid in significant numbers unless they had serious comorbidities.
Sadly, vaccinating for Covid became a moral cause for the left, and they NEVER let other people opt out of their moral causes.
Florida's death rate is dodgy as fuck.
Brett forgot to adjust for Vitamin D levels lol. What’s funny is I kept an open mind during Covid because I lived through the Bush years and know the federal government is capable of lying…so I actually listened to Alex Berenson on radio shows and during the southeast Delta death surge you could hear him sweating over the radio! So he knew his opinions were getting people killed and he was wishcasting that highly vaxxed populations like NYC and Boston would also have a Delta death surge so he wouldn’t have the blood of tens of thousands of gullible right wingers on his hands. Boston and NYC avoided the Delta death surge as the vaccines held and then he obfuscated saying Omicron proved him correct.
Maine is the oldest state and it has a relatively low Covid death rate and so you don’t adjust for age because we transformed society to protect the elderly and then the vaccines were introduced. What you can adjust for is poverty level because that is the biggest factor influencing Covid death rate at the population level. What’s strange is you adjust for Vitamin D with the Hawaii death rate but you don’t do that with Florida…what Florida’s nickname again?? Lol.
Florida's per capita death rate by age group was slightly lower than the average nationwide death rate by age group. (at least in the 65+ age group which was the age group which had 80+% of the deaths).
Adjusting for age makes sense once something is endemic but it’s dumb to adjust for age during a pandemic once mitigation measures are in place. So that’s why Maine is the oldest state with a relatively low Covid death rate because if a population avoided the initial wave it was possible to protect the elderly which blue states successfully did prior to the availability of the vaccines.
"What venues are still requiring vaccination?"
The United States ! From sea to shining sea !
The US has just renewed its anti-Djokovic rule, joining those medical research powerhouses of Angola and Indonesia, as one of a tiny minority of countries still batshit crazy enough still to require arriving travellers to produce proof of their Covid jabs.
Those rules expire on (as of? or after? I'm not quite sure) May 11th and would require congressional reauthorization after that. Tweaking the requirement recently was a pretty dumb way to virtue-signal.
The administration does not agree with you :
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/other/cdc-eases-covid-vaccination-rule-on-international-travelers-as-expiration-looms/ar-AA1arNBf
Presumably they don't believe congressional authorization is relevant for immigration / entry purposes.
This administration doesn't believe Congressional authorization is relevant for ANY purpose.
This blog has some bizarre fixations.
And a reliable tendency to toss plenty of diversionary chaff whenever things are not going well for Republicans in the context of more prominent legal developments.
Bizarre Fixations??
Better than Jerry Sandusky's pre-verted and Ill-legal (Not just at Bushwood, everywhere) fixations on young mens B-hinds (and B-fronts)
Carry on, Klinger oh wait, that's your line
Frank
The New Jersey Appellate Court has joined the Death Cult?
It's worse than I thought.
I dunno. The role of appellate courts is to correct mistakes of law. I think the problem was the trial court judge. He listened to the experts, looked at the evidence, and made a decision. (In my opinion; he made a dumb ruling and a factually-poor ruling . . . but that's different from a legally-improper ruling. Judges are allowed to make poor decisions.)
I think the appellate court is saying here, "If we [collectively] had been the trial judge, and had heard the evidence, we might have (or *would* have) ruled the other way. But our role here is NOT to substitute our judgment for the judgment of the lower court judge. That's his role, and we won't reverse a legally-sound (albeit factually-stupid) decision."
whats dumb is continuing forced ritualistic jabbing on a subpopulation that is practically immune for a disease everybody has gotten several times over for years or has been vaxxed for and gotten several times over for years already anyway. This isn't 2020 anymore. Even china got the message already.
The trial judge is just reflecting WHO advice;
“The World Health Organization's vaccine experts have revised their global Covid-19 vaccination recommendations, and healthy kids and teenagers considered low priority may not need to get a shot.“
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/29/health/who-updates-covid-vaccine-recommendations-intl-hnk/index.html
Dumb ruling - actually not
A) The kids already had covid
B) Covid provides better immunity
C) children are at extremely low risk of severe covid
Good ruling based on good medical science - A bad ruling would be based on the science of irrational covid fear
Covid provides better immunity than what? Even the handful of studies you whine about showed that covid+vaccination provided better immunity than covid alone.
Kazinski...I will simply say: This is the People's Republic of NJ.
Family law cases are the worst.
You whine a lot about New Jersey and the liberal mainstreamers who have caused it (in your telling) to be such a lousy place to live.
Why haven't you moved to Idaho, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Arkansas, or another of the states in which you could enjoy the company of plenty of fellow conservatives and a society built more along the line of conservative preferences?
Are you too poor?
Too dumb to recognize this point?
Or just too full of right-wing shit?
Arthur, you might be surprised, but I actually get along quite nicely with my uber-lib neighbors. We have all known each other for years. I enjoy the ideological and demographic diversity that NJ has. Pretty good location, too. Expensive AF.
Now...that doesn't mean I won't acquire something in a zero income tax state and live there for 185 days. I am evaluating options.
If I had young children, I certainly wouldn’t have had them vaccinated. The lack of useful data alone would have kept me away: Deaths “with” not being distinguished from deaths “from”; no gold-standard studies on the efficacy of non-medical interventions; early death models off by huge multiples; ever-shifting and even contradictory advice from public health agencies; no studies on natural immunity (!); and many, many more.
From an information point of view, it was a complete catastrophe. Literally the only safe play was not to play at all, but to rely on one’s own research. Never in my life had I even thought it could be that bad.
America did an “experiment” the last several years as some populations got vaxxed and some rejected the vax and some took ivermectin and some refused to mask and some refused to enforce mitigation measures. We never found a silver bullet but we have reams of data that shows NY’s mitigation measures greatly reduced spread and masking worked to some degree and the vaccines reduced severity and ivermectin was ineffective and Hawaii’s travel restrictions significantly reduced spread.
We also know all things being equal a population’s % below poverty level is the biggest factor in an American population’s Covid death rate which should be a national shame but nobody cares.
If you want to go back to lockdowns and 2019 tactics talk to the blue states and China and convince them before talking to us.
The pandemic is over, numbnuts. The reams of data is easily accessible and I don’t need to “convince” people of facts…facts are facts.
The "fact" is you are a raving (and ranting?) lunatic.
I suspect you've been infected with the Phizer/Fauci brain worm.
Lol, presenting facts that don’t conform to your asinine right wing narrative of the day is now “ranting and raving”…just as your brain was finally realizing that Islam didn’t give terrorists super powers your brain now believes Covid is a non dangerous Chinese bioweapon.
Are you allowed to say negative things about Muhammed?
To me Allah is a transgender female that tucks.
Why do you keep bringing up Bush and the Mohomedans? Do you think that's some sort of gotcha? What are you, like 100 years old? You're living in the 90s. lmao
We just ended the Afghanistan War in 2021…is that the 1990s?? You are such an imbecile.
When was a Bush last president?
Hoo boy, did the Mohamedan goat herders kick the living shit out of the gay-ass Democrat military too. lmao
“So interesting to watch former President Bush, who is responsible for getting us into the quicksand of the Middle East (and then not winning!), as he lectures us that terrorists on the ‘right’ are a bigger problem than those from foreign countries that hate America, and that are pouring into our Country right now,” Trump said in his statement, which took aim at Bush for the lengthy war in Afghanistan that followed the terrorist attacks.
“If that is so, why was he willing to spend trillions of dollars and be responsible for the death of perhaps millions of people?” Trump said. “He shouldn’t be lecturing us about anything. The World Trade Center came down during his watch. Bush led a failed and uninspiring presidency. He shouldn’t be lecturing anybody!”
So now you admire Trump to the point where he is a figure to be emulated and him speaking about Bush and the middle east at some point in time probably due to it coming up justified you randomly bringing it up no matter how off topic it is?
I’m a Trump Republican…DeSantis killed more Americans than Osama Bin Laden, and so did Bush.
Don't you find it hard to be a "Trump Republican" after watching him get steamrolled by the Establishment and Deep State for the past 6 years?
They won't let him win. He has zero chance of winning an election. He can get 100M votes, and they'll find 101M votes for whomever he runs against.
I lost faith in Trump when he appointed Tillerson and I stopped following politics for the first two years of his presidency because it was so dumb. I supported his platform and not the man…Biden is actually doing a better job of implementing the Trump 2016 platform than Trump.
No, thats the dude Senile Joe put in charge of Nuke-ular policy.
Fact: Children are for all practical intents and purposes resistant to covid to the point that the cost benefit ratio is significantly higher for many things we allow no question.
Fact: The Jab may have helped in the earlier stages of the pandemic in immunologically naive populations but we are far past that stage. Now the jab won't even prevent you from getting sick to a new strain. Most/all people getting sick now have gotten the jab already often getting jabbed and getting sick several times. People who haven't gotten the jab or covid (or exposed to covid as kids) are probably as rare as the dodo.
Fact: Covid coming from a Chinese lab is by far the most logical and parsimonious origin theory we have. The batburger theory you seem to favor is the one with no support other than political.
Fact: Even the most leftwing states are withdrawing from the regime you seem to favor so much. If lockdowns and masking and restrictions are so great for 2023 why aren't they convinced?
Ugh.
Deaths “with” not being distinguished from deaths “from”
Part lie, part so?
no gold-standard studies on the efficacy of non-medical interventions
I don’t even know what this means. Yoga? Herbal teas?
early death models off by huge multiples
I suppose it comes down to what you mean by “huge” so, either “lie” or “so?” depending.
ever-shifting and even contradictory advice from public health agencies
So?
no studies on natural immunity
Lie.
rely on one’s own research
The ultimate lie. Whatever you were doing, it wasn’t research.
Hawaii has the data on vaccinated immunity vs natural immunity. On a population level vaccinated immunity is much safer than going for natural immunity and hoping to get herd immunity the natural way. In America no population went for strictly natural immunity and so high vaxxed immunity with low natural immunity is much safer than hybrid immunity as well.
"On a population level vaccinated immunity is much safer than going for natural immunity"
Only if you don't control for age and comorbidity. Vaccinated immunity is much safer than natural immunity if you're elderly or sickly. Not so much if you're younger and healthy.
But the key point here is that, by the time we actually had the vaccine in sufficient quantity for a mass immunization drive, something like half the population already had that natural immunity. And there was no medical benefit to be had from vaccinating that half of the population!
By the time we were making that choice, it had already been taken away.
The only gains from demanding that people who'd already had Covid get vaccinated anyway were,
1) Bureaucratic convenience: Vaccination status was easier to track.
2) Seeing the anti-vaxers vanquished and forced to vax, and listening to their lamentations.
'And there was no medical benefit to be had from vaccinating that half of the population!'
Wow, they really should let opinionated engineers who can't read do medicine.
Engineers?
More likely antisocial, on-the-spectrum, grievance-consumed IT desk jockeys who figure the Volokh Conspiracy is the official blog of modern, mainstream legal academia.
Brett the engineer is basing his comments on actual data and a basic understanding the covid pandemic.
Nige - you might actually try to develop a better understanding of the data. virtually every comment you have made has been discredited.
I've a pretty good understanding of Brett's grasp of anything outside his immediate area of expertise.
No, during the southeast Delta death surge median age of Covid death actually declined. Maine and Vermont and New Hampshire are old states with high vaccination rates and low levels of natural immunity and they haven’t been ravaged by Covid as things have returned to normal. You are really doing the anti-Occam’s Razor throwing the kitchen sink at data that doesn’t conform to the right wing narrative with respect to Covid. We never found a silver bullet but lockdowns worked, travel restrictions worked, masking worked, vaccines worked…I agree all of those things have a significant cost and so any cost/benefit analysis must weigh those costs vs the deaths by doing nothing.
there are 5 states that had very low per capita death rates by age group (the 65+ age group). VT, NH, ME, WA and HI, There are two states that had much higher per capita death rates - NY & NJ.
All the other 43 states had the death rates fall within a very narrow range. (at least in the 65+ age group which is where 80+% of the deaths occurred.)
You don’t adjust for age once mitigation measures are in place. Trump is correct—DeSantis did a terrible job with Covid. NY and NJ were in the initial wave which means the days with by far the higher daily Covid deaths were from spread without mitigation measures and obviously without the vaccines. Maine protected the elderly…Florida did not.
Sam Bankman-Fried 6 mins ago
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You don’t adjust for age once mitigation measures are in place.
Every medical study adjusts for age. Why wouldnt you adjust for age for Covid - Oops must be for political purposes. Of course you adjust for age and comobilities.
Maine has relatively low Covid death rate with the oldest population…Brett posits that Maine’s low death rate is because of all of the sunshine in Maine…it’s always sunny in Maine! Lol.
Half the population did not have natural immunity in early 2001.
"And there was no medical benefit to be had from vaccinating that half of the population!"
You are not a Doctor, and you are completely fucking wrong.
Hybrid immunity has been demonstrated to be more effective than just a natural infection or a vaccine individually.
When you don't know what you're talking about - which is almost always, shut the fuck up.
We have the Hawaii numbers…vaccinated immunity is fine and if it wasn’t Omicron would have ravaged Hawaii these last 12 months. No reason to get too cute by half and getting Covid in between jabs or sticking ivermectin up your butt or whatever floats your boat. 😉
Pointing to deaths that are merely coincident to COVID-19 infection as being cause to worry about COVID-19 was a fear-mongering lie, meant to terrorize the public. Why are you so quick to dismiss terrorist tactics?
I suspect "non-medical interventions" means masks. My kid's gymnastic studio still requires masks, long after everyone -- including Cochrane reviewers -- have realized that the only masks that MIGHT help against COVID-19 are N95-type respirators, and even then the evidence points towards them not helping. Apparently some neurotic parents ignore the science and threatened to walk if the gym stopped coddling their neuroses.
COVID deaths were counted the same way deaths from any cause are accounted for. If you had any intelligence / experience you would know that a lot of questions that you might like an answer to, such as “How many people died of COVID?” don’t actually have answers because the questions are ill-formed. If you took the question literally, the answer would be zero. No one dies of COVID itself. It’s a tiny virus! They die of things like organ failure. Organ failure has lots of causes… if you’re fat and lazy, your organs are closer to failing than someone who exercises all the time. Does that mean people whose organs failed “during” a COVID infection actually died of lack of exercise? Well… yes. These aren’t the right questions to ask, really.
But people ask them anyway, including important people, so the medical profession has guidelines for how to answer them. That means applying some essentially arbitrary lines when deciding which fatalities to count. But arbitrary lines are ok -- in fact, necessary for ambiguous questions like this -- as long as they're applied consistently, which they were. The standard guidelines were used to count COVID deaths. There was nothing unusual or nefarious about it.
Anyone who knows how the world works knows that the answers to impossible questions are kind of made up. If you’re learning that for the first time, maybe it seems like a terrorist plot…? I think you’d have to be extra paranoid, but that tracks with the typical mindset of self-described libertarians.
Hospitals didn't get paid $30k extra for standard deaths like they did for COVID deaths.
But you believe that incentive didn't lead to any overcounting or misassignment of cause.
What sort of right-wing fever dream are you in the grips of now?
The only thing I can find that even remotely aligns with this... theory... is when Laura Ingraham went on some rant about Medicare reimbursements for COVID patients, where the average reimbursement for a COVID patient was higher than for other patients.
Oh, what a shocker! The medical bills for COVID are higher than for, like, a broken arm? Breaking Fox News Alert! I'm guessing the medical bills for ovarian cancer are also relatively high, so do you think doctors are misdiagnosing ovarian cancer in order to get the big payouts?
I mean, they probably are, but there are three problems with that. First, it's not COVID-specific, it's yet another pervasive societal issue that you're only now interested in because it aligns with your culture war. (Would love to get your help actually fixing it if you actually care!) Second, it's about misdiagnoses, not about deaths. I suppose misdiagnosed COVID cases could result in misdiagnosed deaths, but the fact that it doesn't really make any sense is another sign that your theory is of the conspiracy sort.
And of course, #3: there's no evidence of any cases of actual misdiagnoses, it's all just yet more Fox News fearmongering.
The people responsible for the 3rd leading cause of death in America, medical errors, didn't make a single error when it came to COVID!
tRuST thE sCIeNCe!
lol good one dude
But that’s why the initial 15 days to slow the spread was necessary…with a novel virus the medical community knows they will make mistakes treating those hospitalized and so it is trial and error to develop best practices. Once best practices are developed then mortality rate for those hospitalized declined…but initially it was upwards 30% of those hospitalized died from Covid.
Charlie, your blathering has lost all coherence. Are you even trying to make sense to anyone but yourself?
Randal 19 hours ago
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What sort of right-wing fever dream are you in the grips of now?
Randal - brett's statement is factually correct
By Brett do you mean Charlie? And by statement do you mean the $30k thing? Because it's a lie, as I laid out above.
Medicare reimburses for the treatments provided. It doesn't matter if the patient dies or not. In fact, Medicare's gonna reimburse less if the patient dies early. You gotta keep the patient alive if you want to keep billing them.
You're really profoundly brainwashed.
"COVID deaths were counted the same way deaths from any cause are accounted for. "
Not quite true. It's certainly fair enough to say that if a diabetic dies with Covid, they probably died of Covid, unless maybe they'd stuffed their face with a pecan pie just before expiring. Or died in the emergency room after a head on collision.
But we had people coming in for gunshot wounds and auto accidents getting listed as Covid deaths if they had recently tested positive!
I mean, if you used this basis for determining how many people died of the common cold, it would look pretty deadly.
What is it about a gunshot wound that means a person could not have died from covid?
The hole letting out their blood, obviously.
I thought trauma centres in hospitals increased the chances of that not killing the person.
Depends on if the shooter followed the advice of Slo Joe and used a shotgun to the legs or a "high caliber" bullets which can blow your lung right out of your body.
Still doesn't make you magically immune to covid. Plus a shock to the system like that might supress immune response.
We have excess deaths data…that would mean a lot of people were being shot at the same time Covid waves were raging through various populations. Occam’s Razor…
All the excess deaths data tells us is that there were excess deaths.
Were they caused by Covid? Were they, maybe, caused by the response to Covid? Massively increased unemployment, heart surgery and cancer treatment being put off to spare hospital beds for a wave of covid patients that never materialized?
Yeah, more people died. That all the excess was due to covid, that's unestablished.
Sure, all of those things went in waves that just happened at the exact same time as various Covid waves. You are being lied to …again! Just look at the rolling average graphs of Covid deaths and all cause excess mortality and it’s obvious that Covid is what is killing people and not heart disease or bullets or car accidents.
Nige 8 hours ago
Flag Comment Mute User
"What is it about a gunshot wound that means a person could not have died from covid?"
Seriously - do you really need an explanation?
Well yes you would need an explanation based on your history
Absolutely I need an explanation as to why a gunshot victim could not die of covid.
Dave, this is you:
You’re strawmanning here.
A number that is much less dependent on arbitrary line-drawing or the individual judgments of medical providers is the comparison of total deaths during the pandemic years to the years before and after.
And that comparison shows that Covid killed *a lot* of people. However, as a person familiar with politicized statistics would expect it’s somewhere between the claims of the maximalists and the minimalists.
I see this as yet another example that family matters have a tremendous effect on public thinking.
Then-Senator John Kerry lost his Presidential election bid at the moment in the Third 2004 Presidential Debate when he stated that "Well, I guess the President and you and I are three examples of lucky people who married up." Grimaces and tortured laugher followed... and folks began to wonder if the man was morally qualified to become President.
More recently, we hear Presidential officeholder Joe Biden speak of his six grandchildren omitting -- due either (a) to the effects of dementia or (b) to a callus disregard of his own progeny -- his granddaughter Navy who Biden's son Hunter provably (by DNA, by Hunter's own admission, and by video of the "one night stand" which [if truly a singleton event] resulted in conception) fathered. Polls show that most Americans hope the omission is due to dementia but believe the omission is due to callousness: this does not bode well for Biden.
To some degree, each election is "about the economy, stupid." But to a greater degree, each election is about family and the economic, social, and physical protection thereof.
In graduate school I studied adults who had polio in the early '50's. Without exception they wished that the polio vaccines had been available 5 years sooner. As did their parents. I myself had measles and was delirious with fever for about a week. Also chickenpox; only oatmeal baths relieved the itching. I also had mumps and couldn't swallow anything for about 2 days. As an adult I got to experience the joys of post-mumps viral orchitis, bilateral. Look it up.
Fully vaccinated, my children escaped all of the above except chickenpox--the varicella vaccine wasn't available yet. So I can't sympathize much with parents who don't want to vaccinate their children (assuming any given vaccine isn't contraindicated). On the other hand, I sympathize with everyone who wishes to have control over what does and does not enter their or their children's bodies (fuck the DEA). On the third hand, I do believe that while unvaccinated children who contract a vaccine preventable-disease should receive the same medical care as any other children, their parents should be held liable in some way. As should parents of injured/killed children who did not use the best available infant car seats and/or seat belts. As should parents of children who are injured/killed because of their failure to safely secure their firearms. I could go on. So can you.
You are right about most of the vaccines, but you aren’t right about novel MNRA Covid vaccines approved only for emergency use and causes no more symptoms in children than the cold or flu.
Now you have the WHO saying vaccines for children aren’t necessary, and countries like Denmark and Sweden recommending that children do not get the vaccine.
The first DTAP vaccine killed more children than all of the school shootings over the past 50 years combined.
Who gets held accountable if a vaxx kills your child?
No one.
If no one gets held accountable if a vaxx kills your child, why should anyone be held accountable if a vaxx-treatable disease does?
https://www.hrsa.gov/vaccine-compensation
When you collect your vaxx-victim check from the government, who got held accountable for the death of your child?
Read that link. It tells you the answer.
Yeah it says the VICP is a part of a special no-fault judicial system created to make Big Pharma immune from any injury claims so they could never be held accountable for any medical errors or malpractice.
What did you think it said?
That's right. The answer to your question is "the American people."
I'm sure you hate that answer, but I don't care.
"neither party took any other precautions to prevent infection" -- vaccines don't just "prevent infection", they reduce severity if you do get infected. Masks don't do that, and have other costs like impeding social interaction. So it's quite rational to get vaccinated and then have a social life.
This is such a weird belief to hold. Up until 2021, vaccines prevented infection and therapeutics reduced severity if you got infected.
You people act like that's never been the definition.
Yup, because that was never the definition.
Vaccines can be prophylactic (to prevent or ameliorate the effects of a future infection by a natural or "wild" pathogen), or therapeutic (to fight a disease that has already occurred, such as cancer). Some vaccines offer full sterilizing immunity, in which infection is prevented completely.
So I think you meant to say that up until 2021, you didn't really know what a vaccine was, and now you do.
Knowing is half the battle! The other half is trying not to be such an asshole.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254111268.html
It's so weird to see someone actually rewrite their own reality when commanded to by the State.
Dun-dun DUN!
Seriously... huh? What sort of brain distress do you suppose is causing him to think this helps his case?
A… SLIGHT CHANGE IN WORDING. Damn, the NWO is slick.
You think there is only a slight difference between "produces immunity" and "stimulate immune response" because you're a Chinese shill and an idiot.
Or just not a racist anti-semite anti-vaxxer.
Yawn, no one cares
Do you think you have stimulated an immune response or stimulated immunity to your bigotry?
They both say they "stimulate" the "immune" system. What are you talking about?
If you think there's a big difference between "stimulate a person's immune system" and "stimulate the body's immune response" then you're an idiot.
The other change is "produce immunity to a specific disease" versus immunity "against diseases." That seems to me like it's trying to include multi-disease vaccines.
Stop trying to lie to us.
I actually listened to Berenson in 2021…these nitpicks are what he used to cast aspersions on the vaccines. Berenson ended up being wrong about pretty much everything which is what Fauci is lamenting that almost as many people listened to Berenson as Fauci which is why America did the worst among advanced nations…although poverty plays a factor although the people that listened to Berenson would have been lower income Republicans.
One definition says it produces immunity. The other says it produces an immune response.
Which one says which? And do you think "immunity" and "immune response" are the same thing?
I thought you were an anti-Semite? And yet you got all of your beliefs about Covid from a Jew who made millions spreading disinformation to gullible gentiles…Berenson has the blood of hundreds of thousands of Americans on his hands—take that Hitler!!
In your mind, is there a difference between having immunity to a disease versus stimulating an immune response to a disease?
Yes. The wording is different.
What about the meaning? Do they mean the same things in your mind?
The second is more accurate, and describes what you learn about vaccines in grade school.
When you get the Hep B vaccine. Are you protected from getting Hepatitis B?
Who cares?? Hawaii shows the vaccines largely succeeded in preventing death from Covid and that natural immunity isn’t necessary for robust immunity at the population level. All of the arguments you are making are from summer 2021 when viewing the evidence in the worst possible light it looked like the vaccines might be failing…but they held up. The experts were more right than wrong and only the governor of Nevada lost because of Covid restrictions because everyone knows you can’t snort cocaine through a mask. So you need to get back to reality in May 2023!! Do you celebrate Cinco de Mayo?? Or perhaps Star Wars Day? Or maybe Mother’s Day?? Move on with your life.
Once again Charlie you’re lying about what the CDC quote says. Both definitions say they stimulate an immune response. You keep suggesting that one of them says that and the other doesn’t. But you quoted it yourself. We can see it. That’s not how they’re different.
The difference is that one says “immunity to a specific disease” and the other one says “diseases.” One disease versus multiple.
Can you read? You should invest in a tutor.
One literally says "produce immunity". The other reduces that to "produce immune response".
You Covidians are incredible.
Look at all the new ridiculous things you believe now that you didn't believe 10 years ago.
Vaccines don't make you immune or remove spread, only reduce your personal risk of severity of hospitalization.
A man can live his whole life and then all of a sudden by the power of thought alone, can change into a real authentic woman.
That singing in church is incredibly dangerous during a pandemic, but mass gatherings to protest black trannies isn't.
That Monkey Pox which only spreads via homosexual intercourse somehow spread to children and dogs some other way.
That being on time is White Supremacy.
That videos of Democrats running ballots over and over and over through counting machines isn't election fraud.
Or videos of Democrats paying for ballots isn't election fraud.
That guided tours through the White House by unarmed grannies and grampies is an insurrection, but mobs of angry blacks and trannies attacking state representatives isn't.
That the FBI can somehow manage to a raid a 70 year old elderly man with helicopters and gunboats but can't read Epstein's client list.
It's incredible how malleable your reality is and how much control the people in government have over your minds.
Remember when you believed Islam made terrorists supervillains?? And that a Cuban boy whose irresponsible mother died at sea should remain with his American kidnappers instead of being sent back to his father?? And that being a reality TV star prepares old white men for being president but it doesn’t prepare RuPaul to be president??
I see the problem Charlie. You're fixated on the word "immunity," which only appears in the old definition. (They both talk about stimulating an immune response, so I don't know why you're harping on that part.)
I can understand your confusion. In most contexts, like legal jargon, immunity is absolute. But in medicine, immunity just means (and has always meant) resistance due to previous exposure. Check any dictionary.
Maybe this very confusion was one of the reasons the CDC decided to clarify their definition. But in any case, no vaccine and no (medical) immunity has ever been absolute. It just doesn't work that way. The reason they might seem absolute to you is that they work by making it hard enough for a disease to spread that it dies out. There's no polio or smallpox around for you to catch, vaccinated or not... so voila, you're "immune!" When the occasional measles or mumps outbreak does occur, some vaccinated people also get infected. None of them provide absolute immunity.
Based on that rant, you seem to have descended into some sore of conspiracy theory k-hole. Get help!
Can hepatitis B be prevented? Yes. The best way to prevent hepatitis B is by getting vaccinated.
https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/hbv/bfaq.htm#bFAQd01
That’s weird. That seems to be the CDC saying the Hep B vaccine makes you immune to getting Hep B.
Randal, SBF, Sarcastr0, do you want to notify the CDC and tell them they are stupid liars and everyone has known since kindergarten that vaccines don’t prevent you from getting the disease?
I wish they would stop using the word "prevent." I think they mean it in a statistical sense, like, "Oil of Olay prevents wrinkles and fine lines." Oil of Olay, of course, does no such thing, although from the perspective of a single wrinkle that doesn't happen, that wrinkle was in some sense prevented. So if someone who would've gotten Hep B gets vaccinated and doesn't, then the vaccine "prevented" that person from getting Hep B... even if a different vaccinated person got Hep B anyway.
But the CDC's imprecise language doesn't change the fact that vaccines have never -- Hep B included -- bestowed absolute immunity. Sorry to burst your childhood fantasies!
Airbags prevent injuries for people in car crashes. Does anyone, including BCD, autistically interpret this as "airbags prevent all injuries"? ("If you have an airbag, then you have a 0% chance of getting injured in a car accident"?) Or does everyone, including BDC, understand that this means "airbags prevent many injuries"?
So why is he pretending not to understand the phrase in the vaccine sentence?
'What about the meaning?'
What about the meaning?
Right-wing talk radio told him to, probably.
“So it’s quite rational to get vaccinated and then have a social life.”
Yes, at least rational enough to let people decide to do vaccine and no mask. But that wasn’t one of the options the authorities allowed during the peak of the pandemic. In fact, at least where I live there was a good long period where masks were required but vaccines were restricted to high-risk groups and “essential persons”.
What is 'logistics?'
You know, Nige, if they’d done the exact same things but been honest about it, people would not be nearly as mad.
During the brief two weeks when we had a police enforced ban on wearing masks, the authorities didn’t say “it’s logistics”. They said, quite explicitly, “masks don’t work” in order to manipulate people into not panic buying.
If they’d said up front that the purpose of the vaccine was to lessen severity, it would make sense (because of logistics, as you say) to restrict it to those most likely to die if they got it. Instead, the media campaign was centered on protecting those around you and slowing the spread. One reason for this focus was to short-circuit arguments about personal autonomy. But if the media campaign was correct, the vaccine priority logically should have gone to those out and about, not isolated retirees and invalids.
When they later contradicted themselves on these issues, or at recentered their narrative on something totally different, they seemed astonished that people didn’t just forget what they’d said earlier.
I hope the public health profession has learned that “noble lies” backfire and squander hard-won trust. I fear they haven’t.
Masks bans were stupid, obviously.
'If they’d said up front that the purpose of the vaccine was to lessen severity, it would make sense'
I saw plenty of people say a) vaccines will work as part of a number of measures and b) there could be problems as new variants emerge.
I'm actually confused as to why you're so mad that the media carried messages about protecting loved ones and slowing the spread, because they were good messages.
Most people understood that the situation kept changing, and it was complicated by a growing bunch of weirdos with political sway who denied there was a pandemic, said masks don't work, and claimed the vaccines were poison. They were the ones who mostly used changes in the messaging to claim they'd been lying all along, but then again they're creepy weirdos who believe dumb shit.
So you're hopping mad because they went for noble lies, even though you agree with the underlying policy?
It was a mistake. But who could've predicted what kind of hemorrhoidal assholes Americans like you are! I'd've thought, like they did, that a given person would understand the policy and therefore the reason for the not-totally-accurate messaging, or not, and either way be fine with it. But no, of course, the right decided to spin it as something nefarious for culture war purposes.
It's not clear to me that more honest messaging would've had a better outcome. I think y'all would've found things to be angry about anyway. 90% of the things you guys do complain about are lies. Just look at this thread!
"It’s not clear to me that more honest messaging would’ve had a better outcome."
At a minimum, more honest messaging wouldn't have left the country knowing that they were liars. So, maybe they wouldn't be going into the next crisis with people already aware that they were liars, and, oh, I don't know, maybe people would believe what they said?
But, maybe that's all for the better, because they ARE liars, and, while that's unfortunate, we're better off knowing it.
Why would a Trump voter take exception to what they believe is a lie by anyone else?
Why can't you do like with every other marketer in the world and understand that the message is tailored for a desired outcome? We all know that when you're at Olive Garden, you don't actually become part of the staff's family. But you don't go all nuts and get butt hurt about Olive Garden's lies.
“It’s not clear to me that more honest messaging would’ve had a better outcome.”
I’ll assume by better outcome you mean less outrage, not better public health outcomes. Either way, IMO you aren’t giving enough weight to the long-term effects of creating a low-trust society. Not that I consider our public health establishment the main instigators of that, it’s been a massive decades-long project with many “contributors”. But still, they gave it a shove in the wrong direction.
I meant public health outcomes.
I am curious where you claim there was a police-enforced ban on mask wearing.
But the original post wasn't about what "authorities allowed". It was a judge inferring that, if you don't mask the kids, vaccinating them is useless. It's not.
Ain’t nothin crazier than a VC Covid thread on a Saturday night.
Goddamn.
Just be thankful for the lack of vile racial slurs.
So far.
Probably the result of long covid.
These comments have been just what Prof. Volokh had in mind when he tossed some red meat to his science-disdaining, disaffected, roundly bigoted, antisocial, Asperger's-heavy right-wing fans.
How much would UCLA pay to rid itself of this guy?
Maybe Newsome will appoint an all-new board to clean house.
Imaging the squealing if Democrats started doing to schools what DeSantis and the Republicans are up to in Florida.
The reason professors such as Eugene Volokh and Stephen Bainbridge have their jobs is that California Democrats are better people than Florida Republicans.
But when Democrats have control in Virginia, will the temptation to dismantle ASSLAW at George Mason be too great to resist?
I find it odd that decisions being made "jointly" means that both have to agree or else one side wins. If one parent wants a child to play soccer when the child says that they want to, but the other parent objects, does that mean the kid doesn't get to play soccer if a judge feels that the burden to show that it was in the kid's best interest wasn't met? It seems that the parent that doesn't want something has an easier time getting their way than the one that does want something. Family law is weird.
If two people have to agree on something for it to happen, then yes, there is a built in bias toward it not happening.
That's what mutual consent means. Lack of it has prevented a lot more than vaccinations and soccer games....
Do you find it odd that 1 + 1 = 2?
Yes, “jointly” means both have a veto.
What else could it mean?
Yes, I find it odd that both would have a veto over what the other wants. I was thinking that jointly means the same thing it would if the parents were still married and living together - that they come to an agreement, compromise, or one parent just agrees to let it go. From the way this case is presented to us, a joint decision couldn't be reached, thus it went to a judge that then put the burden on the parent that wants the kid to get treated according to medical advice, allow the kid to play soccer, or whatever else.
That is what seems odd to me, that the burden then falls on one side over the other. The best interest of the child shouldn't be about sides and who has the burden. The child is the only side that matters here, and I would think that the judge would be evaluating the arguments and facts presented by both parents equally.
Note that lots of other types of disagreements can look similar on the surface to this one, such as whether to take the kid to a particular church and instruct them in that religion, enroll them at a particular school, and so on. But raising a child isn't like passing legislation where the status quo gets favored by virtue of a new law needing to be passed by a majority and over a potential veto to change the law. Vetoing a new law leaves things as they are, which presumably had at least majority support prior to that new law being proposed. In my mind, the parent looking to vaccinate their child for COVID had reason to expect that agreement already existed. The child had received prior vaccinations, and certainly had been treated by doctors since the child was born. We have nothing to suggest that either parent had disagreed with the advice of doctors in the past to make us think that such agreement wasn't implicit. Why isn't that status quo being given the favorable position and the parent looking to go against medical advice having to meet a burden that it is not in the child's interest to follow medical advice?