The Volokh Conspiracy
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The City of Mary: A New Song About the Defense of Mariupol'
The city of Mariupol', which has apparently been almost entirely destroyed by the Russians, but in which the battle seems to still be raging, is on the Azov Sea; "Mariupol'" means "City of Mary." (According to Wikipedia, for some the city was named after a Greek settlement in Crimea, which was named after the Virgin Mary; for others, it was named after the Russian Empress Maria Feodorovna, but of course she in turn was named after the Virgin Mary.)
I just came across this new song (released yesterday, I think, but with over 500K YouTube views) about the defense of the city, by the Ukrainian band Okean Elzy; I liked it a lot, and thought both the words and the music had a very effective tone of defiance and resolution, without excessive shouting or pathos—not subtle, exactly, but subtler than it might have been given the theme:
Here is my very rough translation of the lyrics (I used Google Translate to translate the Ukrainian into Russian—in my experience, that particular sort of translation is generally quite reliable—and then hand-translated the Russian to English; please let me know if I have erred):
The Sun rose over the Azov Sea
The wind blows over the dunes
It's cold, but the sand smells of Spring
My eyes have already gotten used to fatigue
There are too many reasons
I dream of how it will once again be good for you and me
[Refrain] No, the naval guns
Will not destroy my dreams
My heart will never betray my faith
For centuries will stand
The righteous city of Mary
While over the proud Azov Sea
The sun continues to riseThe sky thunders over the Azov
The enemy bombards us with his cannon
In the evening even the concrete smells of war
There is no time and no reason
To think how it will be tomorrow
The heart and the hands have long gotten used to battle[Refrain] And the naval guns …
We remained ourselves
We wrapped ourselves in night
And our free mouths tightened from pain
But even to the deepest basements
The light will return again
The shout of the new day seeks to be free[Refrain] And the naval guns …
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This a sad song. What is sadder is the madness of our lawyer led nation. They are not allowing the killing of Putin. To the lawyer killing 10s of 10000s and the destruction of $trillions is ok.
Out of the ashes of Mariupol comes first sorrow. Then anger; 'The Only Good Russian is a Dead Russian!'
Instead of killing thousands or millions of Russians, why not just kill one? That is the utilitarian arithmetic. It is way beyond the understanding of the dipshit American lawyer.
Oh say, does that Das Reich banner yet wave...
When is a Nazi a good Nazi? When he's Ukrainian, apparently.
Well, one can admire the Red Army soldiers' fight against the Nazis in World War II, even if one condemns the Communists for their many crimes (including for the atrocities the Red Army committed in the various countries of Eastern Europe and in Germany). To the extent you're referring to the Azov Battalion, which has neo-Nazi links, I can admire even any neo-Nazi members' role in the fight for Mariupol' (as well as the role of other defenders of the city, or of the non-neo-Nazis in the battalion) even if I wouldn't want them to be running the country, or running loose in other countries.
For more on the apparently quite marginal role of neo-Nazis in Ukrainian politics, see here.
>factcheck.org
lmao
From what movies tell me, communist resistance factions were a significant part of WWII in France.
Shockingly, your movies are accurate :-).
And not just in France - Greece had a large communist resistance faction, which almost took over the country post war. So did Yugoslavia, where they did take over the country post war.
According to Ukraine’s defense minister:
Russia is "denazifying" Ukraine by ... acting pretty much like the Nazis did when they invaded USSR.
(Why does Antifa come to mind?)
So let me get this straight. Something North of 10% of the population of Ukraine has fled the country and it is unlikely they will return. The number would be even higher but the government has forbid males 18-54 (hope I remember that right) from leaving the country. It is hard to say just how much damage has been done to the economy but no one doubts it is not functioning at more than 10% or so. Russia has functional control of the coal, wheat, and iron production areas and it will take a heroic effort for Ukraine to regain control; in fact I would bet against it.
This is not the first time I have posted Russia's goal was a partition of Ukraine with Russia getting the economic valuable East and ports along the coast; some thing that it seems to happening currently. Do I like this and am I happy about it; no way. Do I think it is the reality on the ground; no question about that.
As an aside some military forums are reporting something like 1/4 of the shoulder fired missiles in the US military have been sent to Ukraine and the same 1/3 of the surface to air missiles. The shoulder fired missiles replacement time is well into 2024 and the surface to air missiles may not be replaced till 2027. Not to mention Israel and Tiawan are both wanting to buy both those type of arms. Oh yea they the US also just sent half a billion to Ukraine to pay government workers.
No doubt Russia has lost a lot of old worn out tanks/trucks/ships and who knows how many poorly trained and likely unmotivated troops; which is classic Russian war strategy of a war of attrition. Without massive outside aid (something that may be in short supply if the Mideast or Far East has problems) Ukraine would likely already have been over run. Again not saying I like this or am happy about it; but again reality raises it's ugly head.
While I am no Putin fanboy it worries me that some peeps seem to think getting rid of him would be a good thing. Kinda like if the US got rid of Biden they would be stuck with Harris and almost nobody likes that idea. From what I have seen Putin would be replaced by a hard core former KGB guy who is now a general in the Russian army; not what I consider an upgrade.
Bottom line is Ukraine is getting the borsh kicked out of it even with massive military aid and intel from the West. So far no other hot spot in the world has flared up but who is willing to bet that will continue.
I dunno if this guy is an expert - prior to the Russian invasion he mostly seems to post about gaming or something - but this video and the Part 2 follow on seem plausible. The tl;dr is:
A)if Ukraine is willing to bear the human cost of a long war and
B)the West is willing to supply enough aid
then Russia can't win - Russia just doesn't have the GDP to remotely compete with the West. And the amount of aid required is, say, less than the U.S. was spending on defense during the Reagan era.
So that raises the question - is this an investment we should make? To me the answer is 'likely yes'. Russia/Putin doesn't have limited objectives - just in the last couple of days they were talking about going into Moldova. Stopping them now seems better than waiting for them to attack a NATO country.
That is the practical argument for supporting Ukraine now. There is also, IMHO, a moral argument for supporting people against totalitarian conquest. If my neighbor is beating his wife, that's my business even if I don't profit from helping his wife escape the abuse.
Multiple problems with that argument. First is one that has been in multiple posts in threads on this topic; the TLDR is 'we had to destroy the village to save it'.
While there is not much question Russia is suffering the same can be said for the West. How much longer can America deal with prices at the gas station and super market; and it is even worse in Europe. India, Japan, and Mexico are all fence sitters in terms of wheat and oil from Russia, not to mention lots of Africa.
The point is a micro analysis of Ukraine is one thing but a macro analysis that includes the Middle East where (I know this is a shocker) the Arabs and Jews are fighting again and the Far East where China is rattling swords over Tiawan combined with hits the world economy is taking in terms of oil, food grade oil, wheat, coal, and steel prices is simply something that is sustainable long term.
As has been noted in other threads Biden did not get any boost from the Ukraine war and the more money and arms are sent there while prices in the US sky rocket the less popular he will be. The US is not the only democratic republic or democracy that will have to answer to voters about spending money the government does not have while domestic issues are making the population unhappy.
Even if all the countries in the world united against Russia and sent tons of aid to Ukraine it would still be a 'destroy the village to save it'. But no one thinks all the countries will unite.
Did I mention if Russia has it's back to the wall they have mentioned 'we have nukes'.
'we had to destroy the village to save it'
Is it your view that the US should decide whether Ukraine's freedom is worth the human cost to Ukraine, or should that decision be for the Ukrainian people to make?
'How much longer can America deal with prices at the gas station and super market...'
Is it your view that if we stop aid to Ukraine, Putin will be satisfied with Ukraine and will not have further ambitions in Eastern Europe? Or that defending Europe isn't worth the price, and we should withdraw from NATO? If you don't support withdrawal from NATO, do you feel it will be cheaper in the long run to let Putin have Ukraine now and deal with his further ambitions later?
What amount of aid are you objecting to, as a percentage of the budget?
You really missed my point that instead of a micro analysis that only includes Ukraine what is needed is a macro analysis that includes the Middle East, Far East, and other potential hot spots.
Currently Ukraine has lost a significant amount of it's population and has imposed travel restrictions on military aged males. There has been massive destruction of all sorts of things and who knows how much loss of life.
I am not defending Putin, he is a bad guy. But Ukraine is not totally in the right and has really treated lots of long time residents who support closer ties with Russia badly. Through out history that area has been subject to conquest and the borders have always been in flux.
But the real question to me is how to set priorities. I have little doubt with what is happening in the Middle East we will wind up getting involved there. China has made it clear they intend to try and do something about Tiawan. Who knows what other hot spot will jump up and bite someone in the ass. Just making a rough guess maybe Ukraine would get a quarter or less of the total budget with the cavate that the longer it goes on the less they get.
Bottom line is Ukraine is not my highest priority, I am much more concerned by the Middle East in the short term and the Far East in the long term.
"Bottom line is Ukraine is not my highest priority, I am much more concerned by the Middle East in the short term and the Far East in the long term."
Fair enough. I disagree, not the least because I prioritize currently extant problems over hypothetical future ones.
I also think that what happens in Ukraine may affect what happens in e.g. Taiwan. I think the mainland Chinese have to be looking at the sanctions and wondering if Taiwan would be worth getting sanctioned like that. OTOH, if the world just lets Putin have his way with Ukraine, there is a lesson for Beijing in that as well.
I also think sending a message to China about possible consequences if they attempt to annex Taiwan is useful. Though sanctioning China anything like we have sanctioned Russia would likely destroy the US economy as we are much more interwoven economically with China. Many (most?) US goods involve a supply chain that reaches into China. Russia basically just has energy and grain (OK, and caviar).
Regardless, making Russian expansionism/aggression extremely costly to Russia is valuable in its own right. If they took Ukraine easily who really thinks that would be the last such effort on their part? Russia may end up with part of Ukraine, but as long as the Ukranians are willing to fight for their country I'm happy to support them with sanctions and weaponry, just not direct US military involvement. And if Finland and Sweden join NATO, sounds good to me.
In the past month I have bought a DJI quadcopter made in China and a couple of other small items from Amazon made there; all of which I could have done without. On the other hand I just filled up my Sprinter van and Prius with fuel a few times in the last seven weeks since the Ukraine mess and have to say there is no way I could have done without that.
While we get a lot of stuff from China a lot of it would be what I call discretionary purchases; not so with oil, cooking oil, wheat, and steel. Not to mention for the rest of the world oil and steel price increases are much harder to deal with than what they buy from China.
Not to mention it is not clear Russia wants to "take Ukraine". As I have posted several times their goal seems to be a partition where they get areas in Ukraine where there is support for Russia, not to mention valuable resources.
The Peoples' panic over watching this unfold live motivated politicians to do more, and hence, for now, The People are fine with the sacrifice, shitstains like Tucker Carleson aside.
There are other solutions to US energy problems (ramping up domestic production/fracking/etc). Europe is the one who is in more difficulties there.
Inflation is tough on people. Whether or not it is totally fair, I expect the Democrats (as the party in power) will suffer for it come November.
Let's address a few points.
1. "Something North of 10% of the population of Ukraine has fled the country and it is unlikely they will return."
-A lot of these are actually kids. 1.8 Million of Ukraine's children have left the country, because it is essentially a war zone. Once the war ends, likely they will return to their parents in Ukraine.
2. "It is hard to say just how much damage has been done to the economy but no one doubts it is not functioning at more than 10% or so."
-The World Bank estimates a 45% drop in GDP. Not unexpected. But still plenty functional.
3. "Russia has functional control of the coal, wheat, and iron production areas"
-They have "control" of some of these areas. Not all of them for sure, plenty are in central And to say they are "functioning" would be in error.
4. "As an aside some military forums are reporting something like 1/4 of the shoulder fired missiles in the US military have been sent to Ukraine and the same 1/3 of the surface to air missiles"
-This really isn't a problem. For the most part, the US doesn't use these weapons, especially in major conflicts. In major conflicts, the US relies on air superiority and fighter aircraft to eliminate enemy aircraft, and helicopters and tanks to eliminate enemy armor. If the US is relying on US infantry to shoulder the burden of eliminating enemy armor...we have bigger issues. Additionally, if the US really wanted to, they could expand production.
5. "No doubt Russia has lost a lot of old worn out tanks/trucks/ships and who knows how many poorly trained and likely unmotivated troops;"
-It's exactly the opposite. Their elite, "trained" forces have been the ones being sent into Ukraine. They've avoided sending the conscripts in. And they're the ones who have been suffering the worst casualties.
6. "Without massive outside aid"
The military aid has been...relatively light. Remember, not a single actual US soldier has been sent in. We've authorized a total of $3.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine. We used to spend $7 - $8 billion...annually...in Military aid to Afghanistan. Not direct military spending, but money we "gave" the Afghanistani government for equipment, materials, etc. Let's just say, the current use of US Military aid to Ukraine is far better spent than the Afghani funds were. And it is fairly minor in terms of aid.
7. "Bottom line is Ukraine is getting the borsh kicked out of it"
Ukraine is holding up remarkably well. Russia just withdrew its entire northern offensive because of its absurd losses. Russia is doing better in the South and East, but you'd expect that with what was essentially a "surprise" attack. Since their initial gains, Russia has been slogging. Now Ukraine is rearming and recruiting with help from the West, while Russia is cut off and running out of missiles.
8. "So far no other hot spot in the world has flared up but who is willing to bet that will continue.
And if it does, the US has plenty of assets. Remember, they haven't committed a single actual military asset. Simply some hardware.
All this modern music! Can I hear instead more about the poet of Lviv, Leopold von Sacher-Masoch, rather than simply reading about his legacy?