The Volokh Conspiracy

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"Did Glenn Youngkin Really Win Among Latinos? Or Did Terry McAuliffe Crush Him?"


From Politico (Sabrina Rodriguez & Marc Caputo):

Republican Glenn Youngkin pulled off the unthinkable in his victory in the Virginia governor's race Tuesday: He won the Latino vote by roughly a dozen percentage points.

Or perhaps not.

Youngkin's impressive performance was one of the exit poll findings from the Associated Press' VoteCast. But according to Edison Research, which conducts the exit poll for the TV networks, Democrat Terry McAuliffe crushed Youngkin among Latino voters, carrying the group by a hefty 34 points….

In Virginia, none of the exit polls or surveys leading up to election night had a large enough sample of Latinos to be statistically significant — Latinos only account for between 5 and 7 percent of the state's registered voters….

Exit polls have [also] become trickier to perform today than in the past, when most people voted on Election Day and it was easier for interviewers to grab voters at precincts after they cast their ballots….