The Volokh Conspiracy
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The Biden Administration Considered And Rejected the Trillion Dollar Platinum Coin
The White House also rejected the Section 4 option, for now at least.
During a debt crisis, the trillion dollar platinum coin invariably turns up like a bad penny. And, predictably, Paul Krugman pushed the idea in the New York Times. I flagged this possibility on September 17. And I pondered it the Biden Administration would endorse this proposal. According to the Washington Post, the White House considered, but rejected the idea.
As part of their internal review, White House officials have circulated internal memos with a range of untested theories should Congress fail to resolve the debt ceiling standoff, including the creation of a $1 trillion "coin" idea that has been popular among some liberals for years, the people said. But these options have been set aside as unworkable, the people said. . . .
A senior official familiar with the matter said it was the administration's responsibility to review all possible options. Still, White House officials have reached the conclusion that unilateral action is not viable and the only way to avoid economic devastation is for Congress to act to maintain the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, according to the officials and Michael Gwin, a White House spokesman.
The White House has also considered the Section 4 option:
One legal theory that was reviewed is based on the idea that Congress in the event of a debt ceiling breach will have passed essentially irreconcilable laws. That is because the debt ceiling sets the maximum amount the Treasury can borrow to pay its obligations. But Congress has also simultaneously approved legislation requiring the federal government to spend more than the amount authorized by the debt ceiling.
According to some legal experts, the administration might then say the laws are in conflict, forcing the administration to pick between them. In that case, the administration would maintain that continuing payments is the best of two options — either of which would put them in defiance of congressional statute. . . .Some legal scholars have pointed to the Constitution's 14th Amendment, which states that the "validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned." The Obama administration also extensively reviewed this option during the debt ceiling standoff of 2013. But some legal experts say the 14th Amendment would not have to be cited for the administration to say it has to fulfill its spending obligations under congressional mandate
Mike Dorf, a leading proponent of this view, was interviewed by the Post:
"In my view, all the options under these circumstances are illegal if the administration is told to do something and also not do that very same thing," said Michael Dorf, a constitutional law expert at Cornell University, who said he has not been in communication with lawmakers about the matter.
"The view is often misattributed to me that it would be no big deal for the president to issue debt [after a debt ceiling breach]. It would be a big deal. It would be quite terrible and very likely would spook the markets. But the question is what to do if the spending and borrowing laws are inconsistent. I've expressed the view that the least bad thing to do under those circumstances would be to issue debt."
This option was considered by the Administration, but was ruled out--at least so far:
This theoretical possibility has been discussed by at least two high-ranking Biden aides in conversations in recent days, but ruled out because they believed it would be devastating for the country, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive internal deliberations.
The people involved in discussing this theory stress that they are not saying the White House would have the authority to unilaterally ignore the debt ceiling. They are also adamant that such a measure is not constitutional, and say it could still lead to enormous financial and economic damage. But, they say, should the administration reach the "X Date" — after which Treasury can no longer meet all its payment obligations — continuing to spend in defiance of the debt ceiling may be plausible if not necessary.
"They would have two choices — each of which is unconstitutional," one of the people aware of the discussions said. "This is the theory of the 'less constitutional choice': If the president did this it would violate the constitution, but to not do it would violate the constitution even more seriously."
I don't quite understand this comment. Neither does Gerard Magliocca, who writes:
I also must say that I did not understand what the unnamed source in the article means by saying that the President cannot act unilaterally if Congress fails to act because that would be devastating to the country. It would be devastating to the country to stop the country from being devastated?
If we are about to crash into the debt ceiling, we may yet see the Trillion dollar coin, or the Section 4 option. The unitary executive, and departmentalism, are alive and well.
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The Democrats can pass a debt limit hike whenever they want, on their own, via a reconcilliation bill.
That they choose not to is remarkable.
Democrats can choose to eliminate the farce that is the debt ceiling requirement;
to admit two or three new states (Douglass Commonwealth, Puerto Rico, Pacific Islands);
to enlarge the Supreme Court, enabling it to better resemble modern America;
to enlarge the House of Representatives (with it, the Electoral College), diminishing our system's structural amplification of hayseed votes;
to enlarge the federal district and circuit courts; and
to eliminate (or severely curtail) the filibuster.
See you clingers down the road apiece.
Sounds like the Venezuela solution
https://www.hrw.org/news/2004/12/13/venezuela-chavez-allies-pack-supreme-court
We know how that ended up...Mass poverty, starving citizens...
But maybe that's RAK's solution.
The next wave of American progress will resemble the most recent waves of national improvement, those we have experienced for decades.
Why do you hate modern America? Is it the uppity blacks, uppity women, uppity gays, and uppity immigrants? Is it the increase in science (and decrease in superstition) in legitimate classrooms? Is it the accelerating failure of can't-keep-up backwaters? It is the trajectory toward a White minority? Is it the consumer protections, the environmental protections, the fact that fewer people are being treated like dirt? Is it the school lunches, the contraception, the diminution of abusive policing, the rural electrification?
(OK, that last one is complicated, exposing hayseeds to conspiracy theories, miracle cures, and organized, bigoted hate.)
What makes clingers so disaffected, angry, antisocial, and grievance-consumed about a nation that is getting better?
Modern America has done just fine without the "reforms" you suggested. In fact, it's done fine because it's avoided such reforms.
You would destroy modern America and turn us down the Venezuela road of poverty
Hi, Boomer. Time to go. You need to be replaced by a diverse.
Yes that great African American Elon Musk...most innovative industrialist since Steve Jobs..an Arab American..opps that didn't quite fit your narrative did it?
When you allow freedom and liberty you might not quite get the social outcomes that take your guilt away. Culture trumps everything when it comes to innovation and technological breakthroughs..
Artie the bigot regularly engages in fantasies where democrats have outsized power and influence. But in fact they have no margin in Congress, cannot pass a simple bipartisan bill, cannot even do a reconciliation bill, and therefore will never do any of those things he lists above.
In January 2023 the Congress will have a GOP majority, two years later a GOP president, and the court leans conservative and will continue to do so for at least a generation. That is reality.
So many sentences! Chose cocaine over Natty Light today, huh buckie?
That comment is four sentences long.
That's a lot for him...
Oh, come on, they certainly could pass a simple bipartisan bill.
If they ever felt like trying. So far they're trying to govern as though there were only one party in D.C., their idea of 'bipartisan' is that both Pelosi AND Bernie Sanders like something.
What’s funny is had Hillary won in 2016 we wouldn’t be getting any of this new welfare spending AND we would still be in Afghanistan. So Trump’s fluke win is what energized Democrats to vote in record numbers in 2018 and 2020. Now had Rubio won the nomination in 2016 a President Rubio does expand welfare in 2017…but not nearly to the degree Democrats are about to expand it…but Republicans probably keep the House in 2018. So Trump messed up the ebb and flow of federal elections.
"So Trump messed up the ebb and flow of federal elections."
He sure did.
It's a start.
But Trump’s “bull in a China shop” routine is going to end up helping Democrats…and by helping Democrats it’s going to improve the country.
@SC: Keep snorting up your own supply.
Trump was a wussy putz, but now we're getting the (D)'s good and hard, and this will not turn out well for you.
We are not getting the Ds good and hard. Not so long as it takes 60 votes in the Senate to do anything. Getting the Dems good and hard would be having the infrastructure bill pass six month ago.
Not really. If the Ds had 52 Senators, so that they didn't have to bother about Manchinema, and as they may well have in Jan 2023, the legislative filbuster would be gone in the blink of an eye.
(So long as they also controlled the House - no point blowing up a bridge for no benefit.)
And if Ron Paul had won in 2008..oh wait..the left libertarian reason folks just had a nervous breakdown.
I have often said that Trump could not destroy the Republican Party just by winning the nomination and then losing to Hillary. He had to win in order to do that. It was painful but necessary.
They don't even need a bipartisan bill. They can pass a bill with just Democrats via reconcilliation to raise the debt limit.
Sure, but that would require a bill that just raised the debt limit, instead of raising the debt limit along with a whole bunch of other stuff that they couldn't get passed independently. The problem here is that "must pass bills" always get larded up, because they're seen as opportunities to force people to vote for stuff they don't like, in order to avoid a disaster.
Congress desperately needs a single subject rule.
Congress needs to more closely resemble the American people taken as a whole. The problem continues to be that under our system, people whose views are wholly at odds with what most Americans want have a disproportionate amount of power.
"Congress needs to more closely resemble the American people taken as a whole."
So less Lawyers and more Truck drivers? Less J.D's and more HS graduates without college?
I’m fine with that so long as the political makeup of Congress roughly reflects the vote by party of the nation taken as a whole. In other words, if you add up all the votes for Congress nationwide, and it’s roughly 55 percent for one party and 45 percent for the other, the makeup of the House should roughly be 55/45 for the party that got the most votes. It won’t be exact, but neither should it be a full standard deviation which is the case now.
As for the occupations of the house members that I don’t care about.
"I’m fine with that so long as the political makeup of Congress roughly reflects the vote by party of the nation taken as a whole."
So, Biden got 51.3% of the vote.
The Democrats currently have 220 Seats in the house. Add on the two seats from Hastings and Fudge, but who died and resigned, respectively, and you have 222 seats. That is...51% of the House.
Remind me what you're complaining about again?
Surely you understand that the legislature and the executive are not the same thing. I’m talking about what the results in Congress should be as the result of votes for Congress.
Now if you want to switch to a Parliamentary system in which who is the executive is tied to who wins the legislature that is something I would also be fine with.
Well, the nice thing about the executive race is that everyone gets to pick which party they want to vote for. It's not an exact analog, of course, because everyone is different. Still, in the Presidential race, everyone gets a choice of party to vote for, at a bare minimum.
If you're using the legislative vote totals, you run into a distinct problem. There are a number of districts that don't HAVE anyone of the opposite party to vote for. 19 Democratic, 8 GOP.
You get districts like TN-5 or MA-3 where "all" of the votes go to the Democratic candidate, despite them "only" having a margin of victory of 18% or 22% in the Presidential race. If there was an opposition candidate, that candidate would've likely picked up ~40% of the vote. Add that across 11 districts, and the numbers are substantial.
To simply leave those numbers out is disingenous. If you want to use the House vote totals, you should look at the uncontested elections, and allocate the presidential vote % of the minor party to the minor party of the legislative candidate (who didn't run), and subtract it from the vote% of the major party.
Did you do that?
Yeah, in the race for president, everyone gets a vote but the only votes that actually count are the electoral college.
Part of the reason you have one party seats is gerrymandering. I agree that’s not a good thing and a partial fix would be to make seats more competitive with honestly drawn district lines.
"Oh, come on, they certainly could pass a simple bipartisan bill.
If they ever felt like trying."
Your theory is that the D's are the ones who are keeping the R's from particiipating?
Or are you entertaining a bit of pedantry in noting that if the D's just split into two parties, then their bills would be "bipartisan"?
My theory is that, instead of attempting to pass legislation that could get the votes of a majority of Congress, they're determined to pass legislation that gets the votes of a majority of Democrats. Despite the fact that they haven't enough Democrats to pass anything if they lose even one vote in the Senate, or a handful in the House.
So they're demanding that Republicans inexplicably help them with this effort to enact legislation no Republican supports, and not even every Democrat.
If expanding SCOTUS to some arbitrary number like 15 is good, why not 20 or 30? And what happens down the road when the court fails to reflect the viewpoint of the political majority in control of Congress, does Congress just expand it again? If SCOTUS decides a law is unconstitutional, all Congress need do is expand SCOTUS and get judges it likes on the bench and voila, no more judicial independence. It becomes an arm of Congress.
Expanding SCOTUS is neither necessary nor proper and certainly is not both, as required.
Congress shall have the power “to make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.”
In what way is it not "proper" for Congress to seize the rogue SCOTUS by the scruff of the neck?
The phrasing of your question answers itself, and reveals that you have nothing of importance to say.
Said the clown who imagines that everyone ought to admire his empty posings.
In the same way it would not be proper for a president to use his commander-in-chief role or powers to "seize the rogue Congress by the scruff of the neck" if they, say, voted to certify that someone else won the presidential election.
Except that it is the job of the legislature to keep SCROTUS on its leash, and not the job of POTUS to supervise elections. Try again.
Well for one thing it’s not proper because they don’t have the votes.
That's just dumb. That the fraction of those willing to see the Congress do its job doesn't have the votes to pass the necessary legislation is perpendicular to what Congress' job IS. E.g., that the provident in Congress don't have the votes to prevent the value of the debt of the United States from spiraling down the drain doesn't mean that its obligation to do so has disappeared.
"And what happens down the road when the court fails to reflect the viewpoint of the political majority in control of Congress, does Congress just expand it again?"
I keep pointing out, this is not a real threat. Nobody's going to pack the Court, and then forget to use the packed Court to render elections redundant. You don't pull the emergency stop on Erdogan's train, and then forget to disembark.
I note that Mitch McConnell is now saying that if the Republicans retake the Senate in 2022, they will simply refuse to confirm any Biden Supreme Court nominations for the entire last two years of his term. Whatever may be the merits of court packing (or the political practicalities of it), does he seriously not think that the Democrats won't respond in kind once they have the chance?
The problem with burning a bridge is that it burns in both directions.
I hadn't heard that. Good for McConnell, for once.
Here's the deal. Republicans like to imagine that they have all the guns. But they don't. Their obvious desire to end the Federal government won't come out as well for them as they like to imagine.
I'm not seeing the problem with this particular burning bridge. The constitutional scheme is that judges get appointed if President and Senate agree on who is to get the job. The default, in case of disagreement, is simply that the position remains vacant until the views of President and Senate align.
As regards SCOTUS Justices, it's hard to see how the sky would fall if we got down to five of them, rather than nine.
Moreover, it takes two to form a disagreement. There's no doubt that a Republican President could propose a SCOTUS nominee that a Democrat Senate would confirm (eg Srinivasan) , and a Democrat president could propose a nominee that a Republican Senate would confirm (eg Thapar.) It's just that the said Presidents would probably choose to nominate other folk with little to no chance of confirmation.
But I am willing to lay quite a lot of coin on this bet. If the GOP gains Senate control in January 2023 (a big if, to be sure) if a SCOTUS vacancy arises, and Biden nominates as a replacement anybody who appeared on any of Trump's lists as a SCOTUS candidate, the Senate would confirm.
If Biden nominated Trump himself, I think there would be some Republicans who would vote against it simply because it was Biden making the nomination, because that's the point to which our politics has reached.
You are theoretically correct that the Supreme Court could function with only five members (or for that matter one). You are also correct that the Constitution requires the President and the Senate to resolve their differences. But there are two problems with that approach.
First is that scorched earth generates more scorched earth. At some point the Democrats will be in a position to respond in kind, and they will. Mitch McConnell is betting that that day won't come, but if he's going to adopt that tactic, he better be right. He's also counting on not having a president like LBJ, who would have responded by shutting down the Louisville airport and sending regulators to close every business in Kentucky. (Thanks to the electoral college, Biden doesn't have to care about Kentucky; he can totally destroy its economy with no political consequences whatsoever. His base might even approve)
Simply put, that's not how the country should be run, and that it isn't stems more from the fact that the Democrats have shown themselves more concerned with norms than the GOP has. But make no mistake, there will come a tipping point.
And second, political norms exist precisely so that we don't have those kinds of scorched earth tactics. The Constitution may not require political norms, but they served us well, right up until the GOP decided that immediate victories were more important than the institutions themselves.
I agree that an R Senate wouldn't confirm Trump - lots of them don't approve of him at all and even if they did, he's 75. But he's not on the Trump list.
Practically if a D President proposed a fairly ancient conservative judge - say 70 years old, an R Senate would probably take it, unless they were superconfident of winning the next election.
As for norms, yes I agree, norms are great. But the GOP view is that they have simply retaliated tit-for-tat for Dem norm breaking. And now, how do you restore an old norm, if there's no trust that the other side will keep to the deal ?
So absent norms, it's trench warfare. IMHO the next phase will be executive branch nominations. From 2017-2021, with the Rs having a Senate majority, the D minority nevertheless used every delaying tactic in the book to slow walk Trump's executive branch picks. Schumer did nothing to encourage the Rs to trust him, by reneging on a deal to confirm Pompeo by voice vote by unanimous consent on inauguration day.
The R minority has not, so far, retaliated in 2021. But I expect that the next R President will face the same tactics from a D Senate minority, or if the Ds are in the majority, a straight refusal to confirm.
The Rs will then retaliate, but because that's asymmetrical warfare - the Ds are not going to mind the executive branch being run by career folk who are Ds anyway - the Rs may need to think of something else to get their own back.
" If SCOTUS decides a law is unconstitutional, all Congress need do is expand SCOTUS and get judges it likes on the bench and voila, no more judicial independence. It becomes an arm of Congress."
Republicans haven't always had success in appointing Republicans to the the bench. Some of the justices they complain about most were appointed by Republican administrations.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Waste of brain cells warning
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For any one reading the above, Kookland is performing his weird trick of "footnoting" his assertions with a music video. I didn't follow it, but hovering over it shows "youtube". So there's no need to click on it.
I try to add some culture to this hick blog.
You wouldn't recognize worthwhile culture if it bit you on the butt.
So who's your footnote musician?
The Republicans could vote for a debt limit hike, which they largely believe should happen, without the need to force the reconciliation route. There is no policy commitment behind their stance on this. It's pure political positioning.
The R voters back home just know that whatever the D's want, they're against. So they reward monkey-wrenching with re-election.
These same people insist that we do not make deals with terrorists.
It would be AWESOME if Biden would mint the coin but with Trump's likeness on it. Everyone would be happy and mad at the same time.
That is a genius idea! And then Sequential Brands (The Franklin Mint) can make commemorative gaudy editions of the coin to hawk on fox news, and then lots of people will love this coin idea!
This is your attempt at "abortions for some, miniature American flags for others"
Lame.
This could be bad, or it could be very bad.
Numismatists will ask: Which side of the coin (obverse or reverse)?
Everyone else will ask: Which end of Trump (anterior or posterior)?
PS. If forced to choose I’d pick reverse/posterior, and (I’m not a monster) make it really small.
An acquaintance of mine is a doctor who, as a public service, offers free rectal exams to Trump supporters to see if he can help them find their heads.
Genius!
I do not understand the 14th Amendment "debt of the US" argument. Not all obligations of the US are "debt." Only debt is debt, and there is plenty of tax money to pay that (at least for now).
The rest of the obligations are either contractual or purely voluntary, and many of the contractual obligations can, by their terms or by statute, be terminated without further obligation.
Refusing to pay the debt is unconstitutional. Refusing to spend every cent that's been appropriated is merely contrary to statute. The 14th amendment argument is almost as much of a joke as the trillion dollar coin.
The Trillion dollar coin is in the lead by a little bit, though: They try THAT, and we'll lose our status as a reserve currency the next day.
Is it really illegal to not spend everything in a budget? In the navy, end of the fiscal year meant any leftover funds in the division budget went to foul weather jackets and steel toed safety shoes, the joke/rationale being that if any division had funds left over,next year's budget would be reduced accordingly.
There have been laws which authorized spending so many billions on COVID relief and reports of not enough people qualifying for the money, so they had not spent everything. Was that illegal?
Not really. It's more of a grey area.
The anti-impoundment act of 1974 was passed because Presidents were usurping the authority of Congress by not spending money on appropriated measures they disagreed with. Let's give an example.
1. Congress passes a law that says every Family in the United States will get a pair of boots. They appropriate $5 Billion for this.
a. The President says "I don't like this idea. I won't spend this money". That would be illegal.
b. The President spends $4 Billion and everyone gets a pair of boots. $1 Billion is not spent. That would likely be not illegal. Congress's will has not been thwarted.
Thanks. Interesting concept. I can imagine lots of wild talk if the law specified the boots in excruciating detail (length of laces, number and type of lace holes/hooks, thickness of material, kind of bootprint, and the President found some way to cheapen the boot to save money. And that's just boots! Just about any kind of real appropriations legislation would leave far more scope for quibbling.
If the law did, sure. Usually the law doesn't though. It leaves such details to the administration.
If the Congressvermin don't raise the debt ceiling then that calls Congress’s actual will to have the government distribute boots into question. The President has little choice except to distribute his dosobeyment of statutes, and little or no direction as to how to do so.
SCOTUS might open its yawp, but should be kicked to the curb.
Congress could impeach and convict, as they could for spitting on the sidewalk, but good luck with that.
c. The President says "As and when Congress votes some more taxes or debt to finance this $5 billion boot jamboree, fine. Until then I'm, doing squat."
It is if the spending is not on something authorizes. Remember there is a budget bill, and authorization bill and an appropriation bill. And agency can hold on to appropriated but unspent funds for a few months after the start of the new fiscal year. But eventually Treasy will want unspent money back.
No we won't lose our status as a reserve currency the next day.
You don't even know what that means.
OTOH if we fail to raise the debt ceiling the results would be very bad.
If we keep raising the debt ceiling without real spending reform, the bad result you fear from not raising the debt ceiling is only delayed but it gets worse.
The piper has to be paid eventually. The longer you put it off, the more painful it gets.
Fine, Matthew. Then reduce spending (or raise taxes).
Or leave it for the next guy to sort out.
Refusing to pay the debt is unconstitutional.
Why so ? Refusing to pay it may be contrary to the contractual obligation under which it was issued, giving the creditor an excellent chance of winning in court, but you can refuse to pay a debt without questioning its validity. History is full of examples of sovereigns choosing to default on debts, without ever questioning the validity of the debt. It was simply "don't want to pay, shan't pay, noogies."
Actually noogies was usually expressed in Spanish, as the King of Spain defaulted I think four times during the 16th century, notwithstanding the huge flow of gold and silver into his coffers from the Americas. And no, the lenders did not crawl into a hole and hide, they kept on coming back for more - judging their interest rate according to their estimate of the timing of the next default.
Section 4 does no more than eliminate any legal defense by the United States in court, as against a claim by a creditor, that legally issued public debt is - for whatever reason the US might choose to advance - not valid.
However Section 4 is a no hoper as an alternative to raising the debt ceiling, because it is explictly limited to "the public debt of the United States, authorised by law". Hence a future US government can certainly challenge the validity of any public debt that was not "authorised by law".
Which is why the interest rate on any such unauthorised debt would likely make even the King of Spain's eyes water.
And no, the lenders did not crawl into a hole and hide, they kept on coming back for more – judging their interest rate according to their estimate of the timing of the next default.
Correct. And guess what would happen to Treasury rates, and then to interest rates worldwide, but especially here, if the Treasury doesn't meet its obligations.
"Why so?"
Because the Constitution literally has a clause making it unconstitutional, that's why. Sure, historically the government has shat on that clause, but it's still there.
Except that Section 4 doesn't say that "refusing to pay" the debt is unconstitutional, it says "questioning the validity" of the debt is unconstitutional. As every creditor knows - or ought to - there's a difference between owning a valid debt, and getting paid.
Section 4 simply nixes a claim in court by the US government that it is not obliged to pay a public debt because the debt is invalid. Even if Congress has passed a Bill saying that that debt is invalid. So the validity of the debt is protected against Congressional action.
But Section 4 does not nix a claim by the US government that it is not obliged to pay a public debt for some other reason than its validity. For example Congress might pass a law saying that "no money shall be paid from the Treasury to the government of any terrorist-supporting state or state which which the United States is at war." And "terrorist supporting state" might be defined as say, Oceania, Eastasia and Eurasia. If Eurasia held some US public debt, and the US refused to pay up based on the anti-terrorist law, but not challenging the validity of the debt, the US might win in a US court, notwithstanding the existence of Section 4. Indeed I suspect it probably would win.
Right, and to anybody who isn't engaging in sophistry, refusing to pay the debt, or forcing creditors to "take a haircut" IS compromising the validity of the debt. The debt isn't some nebulous number, the terms of repayment agreed to when it was entered into are part of it.
The purpose of the clause wasn't so that the government would acknowledge the debt it was welshing on. ("Oh, yeah, I totally owe you that money, I'm just not going to pay you. But I totally owe it!" reassured no creditor ever.) It was to assure potential creditors that they wouldn't be cheated.
I think it was mostly to prevent a future Congress passing a law legally welshing on the debt. (Are we allowed t say "welshing" these days ?)
Obviously Section 4 does not mean that you may not "question the validity" of the debt at a political rally or in an argument in a bar, or even on VC - it's a legal thing meaning that you may not question the validity of the debt in court - or that if you do so question it, the Judge will rule "sorry, bud, you're screwed by Section 4."
But accepting that you totally owe it, does not prevent you saying I'm just not going to pay it - so long as the courts accept that you have a legally valid reason not to pay it, other than questioning its validity.
Shirley it is not controversial that if :
-Enormous Industries Inc issues debt to the public and
-some of it is bought by, say, the Third Reich,
-the USA declares war on the Third Reich and
-passes a law saying, inter alia, no paying off of debts to the Third Reich while the state of war exists
then when the debt falls due, if the Third Reich - I'm sure New York lawyers will represent anybody - sues Enormous Inc for settlement in a US Court, the Third Reich is going to lose. Not because the debt is invalid, but because it's illegal for Enormous to pay it.
And ditto for the US government's own public debt. If it's illegal to settle a debt, notwithstanding its validity, then it's illegal to settle it, notwithstanding its validity.
And what you call sophistry, a lawyer calls a good day's work.
Yeah, that argument works for private debt, which the constitutional clause we're discussing doesn't apply to, and which has always been vulnerable to force majeure. We're discussing public debt, where the US is enacting the laws saying paying the debt is illegal, and if the US owes Nazi Germany money, and passes a law declaring that the debt won't be paid, that's unconstitutional.
"And what you call sophistry, a lawyer calls a good day’s work."
To the profession's great shame, yes.
Which payment obligations do you think are non-debt?
Everything but debt service, that's what. There's an effort to pretend that having promised to spend money is debt, too, even before the money is spent. But it's just an effort to rationalize that spending promises are constitutionally obligatory, when they're not.
It's not a question of constitutionality. Who cares?
It's a question of market reactions. Pay your Visa bill, but get your car repossessed. See what that does to your credit rating.
Not my department (at all) but I should have thought that "public debt of the United States" doesn't mean any kind of indebtedness that the United States has run up.
I should have thought "public debt" was debt issued in "public" form, ie like a security. So I would think the issued debt securities of corporations are "public debt" - though not, of course, of the United States. Meanwhile "private debt" is that arising from a private transaction between party A and Party B - and the government can have both public debt and private debt. Private debt may be transferable by the creditor, but it can be specified not to be. Whereas I don't think you could have a non-transferable debt that was "public debt."
Thus, for example, unpaid wages owing to US Navy sailors woudn't be "public debt" in my book. The amount that the US government might owe a contractor for repairs to a federal building again would be "private debt" mot "public debt."
However I'm very happy to be corrected, by someone more learned than myself on the legal mysteries of debt. Which is not a high hurdle.
Good decision.The Trillion dollar coin is just a fake subterfuge. Better that the Congress face to reality and just do away with the restrictions on the debt limit
Don Nico, I don't think it is right to rule out a subterfuge just for being fake. Too restrictive.
SL,
That amused me. Thanks for the laugh.
Too much restriction is not the current problem.
The debt limit should very clearly be abolished.
Among other things, it would push the deficit debate where it belongs - to the budget negotiations.
Right now the limit just offers a pain-free way to bloviate about the debt without discussing trade-offs, payoffs on spending, taxes, etc. It's BS posturing.
Something is going to finally trigger the Second Civil War. A coin is as good as anything.
I've got plenty of popcorn stored up for the fun.
Are civil wars calm enough for popcorn eating? It's great that you're fully prepped with lots of popcorn (and hopefully all of the required accoutrements for popcorn eating during war), but it seems like there might be more pressing issues at hand, and that you're plate would be full just protecting your popcorn and that you'd hardly get around to enjoying it as much as you think you might now.
Some people just want to burn it all down, and some will say they just want to watch it burn down.
None of those antisocial, disaffected losers count for much. Being mocked is about all they are good for.
It would be easier for the govt to rip up 1T of its own tnotes than mint a platinum coin. For one the govt would have to purchase the platinum.
It's not like they are talking about using $1T worth of platinum to make the coin, it would be a 1 or 2 ounce coin with a face value (not a material value) of $1T.
Hah. A coin actually using a trillion dollar's worth of platinum would be unworkable, to say the least. It would be more platinum than probably exists on the planet (well, unless the price goes up enough after it's all taken off the market.) And doing that would be pointless; minting a coin to essentially cheat the debt ceiling doesn't do any good if you have to go into debt by the same amount to get the materials for the coin!
I suppose they could pull an FDR and confiscate the platinum.
At current prices a trillion dollars worth of platinum would mass approximately 32 thousand tonnes (metric tons), or something like 6 billion catalytic converters worth. US annual production is roughly 4 tonnes. South Africa is estimated to have about 69,000 tonnes still in the ground, several times higher than the rest of the world combined.
So that's easy. The Treasury just issues a platinum coin in the form of South Africa itself. Hard to steal.
Or they mint one of a few ounces of platinum, but just do it after a few years hyperinflation.
What alternatives does Biden have? I want to see a list.
Simple Cap,
He can campaign for the honest approach of doing away with the debt limit restriction on governmental operations.
There are going to be deficits annually for the foreseeable future. Why go through this charade every year for no good reason whatsoever?
Because it's the one remaining restraint on borrowing, weak as it is, and if we dispense with it, in a couple years we'll be nostalgic for the days when they only ran a $300B a month deficit.
It's a joke - nothing but a political football to toss around - but one that might explode in our faces if dropped.
Restraint on spending? The same Congress and President that spend (or cut taxes) can lift the debt ceiling.
Brett,
That is no reason at all, because the only alternatives are default or raising the debt ceiling. The idea that the budget could actually be put into balance is a pipe dream and will be for decades.
You keep saying that, because you find reducing spending unthinkable. "But I have to go deeper into debt, I've already scheduled that Hawaii vacation! If you don't raise my credit limit, I'll have no choice but to skip the next payment on one of my cards to afford it!"
Constitutionally, very few forms of spending are non-discretionary. Debt service and judicial pay, and that's about it. EVERYTHING ELSE CAN BE CUT.
What can be done and what anyone in government has the cojones to cut are extremely different classes.
Look, the Social security fund owns $5T of debt, but do you think that Congress is going to cut SS funding except that debt service?
The $0.5T debt service has to be paid.
Do you really think that this Congress is going to reduce any entitlement program?
As for "discretionary spending. maybe the military will take a hit back to 0.5T. And of the rest of the $0.9T, every member of Congress will be whining for his and her "cut."
It just is not going to happen.
Oh, I agree, I'm not saying Congress has the self control to do it. I'm just saying that the argument that default is somehow logically inevitable if you don't raise the debt limit is bs.
Defaulting if the debt ceiling isn't raised is a choice. It's not unavoidable, it just wouldn't be avoided.
No sane Congress is going to solve the out of whack finances until after the sky has fallen.
"I’m just saying that the argument that default is somehow logically inevitable if you don’t raise the debt limit is bs."
Would you mind spelling out your reasonable alternative? Not at all because I want to mock it for being woefully misguided, because if you can actually do it, it might actually be useful.
Even if it did happen and the FY2022 budget were balanced, that wouldn't eliminate the need to raise the debt ceiling. The federal government has more than 4 million employees whose salaries continue to come due, and medicare, medicaid, and social security checks that the government is obligated to write. Even if planned new purchases were canceled (unlikely this could be done without penalty) the ongoing commitments from last year create a cash flow problem. Solving that without new borrowing would involve massive federal layoffs and reneging on those mandatory payments.
Again, they're not "mandatory" in any Constitutional sense. Only debt service is Constitutionally mandatory.
And judicial salaries, don't forget those.
"Solving that without new borrowing would involve massive federal layoffs and reneging on those mandatory payments."
You write that like it's a bad thing.
Laying off the Army would probably have bad long-term effects, and a good possibility of bad short-term ones, too.
Laying off the border patrol is probably not the outcome Republicans are looking for, either.
We can probably do without any Air Marshals once you've layed off the Air Traffic Controllers.
If we lay off the mine safety inspectors, all those resulting dead miners will get buried, no problem.
I suppose we could give Alaska back to Russia and ask for a refund. Did we leave the price tag on it? Maybe they won't notice all the oil we spilled on it.
Mandatory spending is spending mandated by law. The law can be changed, the Congressional Budget Office reported on a whole mess of options last December, but can't be changed fast enough to avoid default.
The 14th amendment says the federal debt may not be repudiated, not that it has to be paid in any particular order. There is no basis for treating interest payments differently than other payments lawfully due on a schedule like Social Security. Until paid they all contribute to the debt and, per the 14th, can't simply be wished away.
There is no remaining restraint on borrowing, and there's no "if". Being nostalgic for the days when they only ran a $300B a month deficit is already baked in.
So you see the Zimbabwe solution as a good one? There isn't really another way to parse this.
Nonsense.
Ask Democrats to raise the debt limit on their own via reconcilliation.
So, your position boils down to they just just expel the Republicans from Congress, because they're useless?
Democrats have the "fuck around and find out" mentality down pat.
I always thought that the method was called "suck it and see."
"The view is often misattributed to me that it would be no big deal for the president to issue debt [after a debt ceiling breach]. It would be a big deal."
It would not be a big deal. It would be a nullity.
It would be no different than me purporting to issue debt on the credit of the United States.
A purported nullity, but a purported nullity whose validity may not be questioned. The real issue is the reaction of the markets.
Because God forbid anyone focus on Congress' in this debate. "Should POTUS do A or B?" is a false dilemma.
Perhaps he shouldn't have to do either. Any conversation about it should always start, explicitly, with "First... Congress can and should just reduce spending to avoid the needing of debt in the first place. A series of terrible management on their part should never be forgotten or forgiven." Without that it takes it for granted that "this is just how it is" with no moral judgment. That serves to further treat such behavior as acceptable.
I don't know why this is an issue. Debt service wins, and there's plenty of cash flow for that.
Congress chooses to play a game of debt ceiling. Fair enough. Do your job and reduce spending, increase the borrowing, or both.
You wanted it, cowards. Do your job. Earn those kickbacks where your family gets wealty well in excess of your salary, yet mysteriously nothing is found wrong.
You shouldn’t accuse people of receiving kickbacks without receipts
The mentioned "mystery" is proof enough. We don't need to know in detail how it's done id we can see that it is being done and that how it is being done is merely being concealed from us. Obama didn't buy that peninsula with a legit book advance.
We don't need proof that something is happening if we can just imagine that it is happening, and really, REALLY want to believe that it is actually happening.
This is how you get voter fraud, lots and lots of voter fraud.
You want receipts, I got receipts :
https://babylonbee.com/news/congress-members-to-wear-upc-codes-so-lobbyists-can-scan-prices-self-checkout
The government lost its last trillion dollar coin when Homer Simpson used it to buy a Coke from the vending machine.
I am not really sure that the trillion dollar coin is constitutional either. Congress has the power to coin money. (Article I, Section 8, Clause 5: [The Congress shall have Power . . . ] To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;...)
The flip side of appropriate (also Congress' power) is the power to coin money. I doubt that Treasuries' presumed power to coin money is a proper delegation.
Also, minting money to pay publicly held debt (keep in mind that a most of debt that the Treasury owes is to another agency**), even if constitutional, is likely to be seen as a de facto default. The dollar will drop precipitously. Our ability to finance the debt will indeed be questioned. Minting money is what socialist dictatorships in South America do, and the inflation would make the 70s look tame. It would indeed call the debt into question.
**Rather than printing a coin, the Federal Reserve could probably by short term debt and cancel it. Now go back and read the part where congress has the power to coin money and ask yourself if too much authority has been delegated to the Federal Reserve.
Also, the Federal Reserve would have to sign on to the trillion dollar coin plan. Some Federal Reserve bank would have to accept the deposit so that debt could be paid electronically. This would be the de facto end of the "independent" Federal Reserve since they would be seen doing the Treasuries bidding (as it is, the Federal Reserves independence is based a memorandum of understanding signed after WWII https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/treasury-fed-accord). The agreement is thin as the paper it was written on and can be easily undone.
Getting too deep in the weeds on a Sat night, but historically the Federal Reserve does have the power to monetize the debt. The trillion dollar coin is a red herring. Historically government debt/IOUs were treated much like money since they were backed by the power to tax. Google the history of the early colonies, a lot of them had *cough* spending and fiscal issues. As a result, high inflation (the state government debt depreciated quickly). Congress was given the power to coin money as a result. There is a good Cleveland Fed paper about this.
Is it possible that we're in a situation which we can only escape by screwing somebody.
Suppose we do the "honorable" thing and pay off the debt with new taxes and cuts. This would harm people who never had a chance to vote for or against the debt, or the sponsors of the debt. They were too young or non-existent.
Taxation without representation, anyone?
But if we try to do right by the people who never approved this debt and can't be blamed for it, that means stiffing the borrowers, who are technically innocent.
Is there some way to be fair to *everyone*?
Cut spending.
Oh, wait. You meant "some POSSIBLE way", right?
Suppose we do the “honorable” thing and pay off the debt with new taxes and cuts.
You don't need to. There is nothing "dishonorable" about continuing to roll over the debt, or even increasing it.
Until the snowball gets so big no one is willing to lend the government more money.
That's not the way this will end. The Fed will always "lend" the government as much "money" as it wants. The government can always take what it wants and pay for it in scrip "legal tender" borrowed from the Fed. Etc.
I've said that myself: At the tail end of a hyperinflation, when the employees of the mint have all gone home because the money they were paid in the morning wasn't enough to make change at the grocery by evening, the Secretary of the Treasury could snag a million dollar bill blowing down the road, scribble a dozen more zeros on it, and 'pay off the debt'.
And nobody would even pay attention to this stupid gesture, because they wouldn't be treating dollars as currency anymore anyway, just scrap paper, so the number of zeros would be irrelevant.
The government can always print more money. It can't print people caring that it printed more money.
Sure, Matthew, in the extreme. But that proves nothing about our current situation.
You know, people don't just suddenly refuse to lend us more money. What happens is that they demand ever higher interest rates. Which is exactly what happens if we don't raise the debt ceiling. Only quicker.
"Until the snowball gets so big no one is willing to lend the government more money."
People were talking about this back in Reagan's day, but it didn't seem to come now matter how big the deficits he rolled up to pay for all his military toys. Then, see, when he needed money to pay for something Congress wouldn't pay for, he just sold some of the military toys to terrorists, and voila! a slush fund to pay to fight the Sandanistas!
Dorf is wrong because issuing debt doesn't mean people will actually purchase that debt and allow you to fulfill your spending quota. Cutting spending is the only way to ensure the government is meeting at least one of its statutory obligations. The government doesn't have control over tax revenues or raising funds via debt. To think otherwise is to be thinking very narrowly about this single point in time in American history.
no. issuing debt by definition means that the Treasury has sold it. The question is not "whether" they can sell it, but at what price/interest rate.
At some point, no, eventually they won't be able to sell it at any price/interest rate, because the ability to sell it rests on the belief that the terms of the sale will be observed. Once that's gone, you can't sell squat.
Not true. Even Argentina, Venezuela, Illinois and New Jersey can find buyers.
Not true. The Federal Reserve will buy the treasury’s debt if they can’t sell it on the open market, and probably won’t disclose it.
Bingo. "The government doesn’t have control over... raising funds via debt" is flat wrong. Sustaining the VALUE of the dollar over time is a trickier problem, but paying debts denominated in what it prints is a trivial task.
"At some point, no, eventually they won’t be able to sell it at any price/interest rate, because the ability to sell it rests on the belief that the terms of the sale will be observed."
Which explains the Congressional Republican's desire to unilaterally default on the existing debt.
To cut spending, we need a large political constituency that wants to cut spending.
You don't need "people" to purchase debt as long as the Federal Reserve will do it. And don't talk about the "independence" of the Federal Reserve or I'll laugh and milk will squirt out my nose.
Yep...and that is why the Fed is the most dangerous agency in America. More dangerous than China, Russia or any foreign enemy...the Fed needs to be shut down...End the Fed
More dangerous than stupid people with Internet access?
" Cutting spending is the only way to ensure the government is meeting at least one of its statutory obligations."
Unless you understand how money works, that is. The other way besides "the only way" is to increase revenue. The United States is a net exporter of a number of things... soybeans, intellectual property, (yes, the list is shorter than it used to be.) But if the government increases revenue, then it can spend more.
So you have to pay your credit card bill (interest only as you can't every really pay your principal). You have the income to pay the bill monthly but you would rather spend the money on consumption and buying hookers/drugs so you ask another credit card company to open a credit line so you can pay the interest and still buy your drugs. This is what the Feds are doing.
Deficit spending doesn't work and is the most immoral, unethical, inflationary and punishing the poor and middle class, pro war and destroyer of our natural rights.
Govt should raise taxes to buy votes...we can then have an adult conversation on if we really need the Dept of education HHS, HUD, and a $1T defense budget
That's exactly what the feds are doing, and I blame the Republicans, and specifically Newt Gingrich.
Back in '94, Newt came up with his "Contract with America". And while it wasn't really the reason that Republicans won that year, they claimed it was, and set out to honor it the next year.
But the plank that required a balanced budget amendment? They carefully managed the vote to make sure it didn't pass. Brought several versions of the amendment to a vote, in order that everybody could vote for one without any of them getting enough votes to go to the states.
Realistically the last chance we had to avoid eventual default, and they deliberately blew it. Rot in Hell, Newt Gingrich!
Your ignorance is showing.
I despise Gingrich, but if he really killed the Balanced Budget Amendment then good for him.
You can't seem to distinguish between disagreement and ignorance.
Why can't it be both?
"Back in ’94, Newt came up with his “Contract with America”."
Ah, yes, the Contract on America. The less said about it, the better.
Hint: If you can't pass a balanced budget, passing a balanced budget amendment won't help you. Some jackass will come along and run a war off-the-books, or something.
"Deficit spending doesn’t work and is the most immoral, unethical, inflationary and punishing the poor and middle class, pro war and destroyer of our natural rights."
Deficit spending does work. When the business managers do it, it's called "leverage". The key is whether or not the leverage is used to buy productive assets: Look at leverage buyouts that worked and ones that didn't and difference is the value of the assets that were purchased. It's possible to screw it up, (say, if you have a faction of your management team that actually WANTS it to fail, but that can be fixed by disposing of the disloyal faction.)
Deficit spending doesn’t work and is the most immoral, unethical, inflationary and punishing the poor and middle class, pro war and destroyer of our natural rights.
JFTR, this is ridiculous.
Why? Do you honestly believe govt is an "investment"? Is so why do we run deficits? Does printing money not impact inflation? Who does inflation benefit and who pays the costs?
Does keynsian economics work? It denies basic tenets of economics like opportunity cost and marginal return. It also denies the true causes of business cycles. If govt wants to buy votes then raise taxes to pay for them. If not then your saying "supply side" works (omg..really as a prog?). Govt borrowing will more than pay for itself...which is probably the most ridiculous idea right up there with astrology and big foot.
You're economically illiterate.
Is government an "investment?" Some government spending clearly is. Do roads not produce a return? Does education? R&D? Leaving the exact size of the defense budget aside, would we be better off with no military?
Does Keynesian deny "basic tenets of economics like opportunity cost and marginal return. It also denies the true causes of business cycles. "
Not at all. As I said, you're economically illiterate.
Some government spending is investment. Most of it isn't.
But, you know, anyone who claims that we're following Keynesian policy today is themselves economically illiterate. Keynes advocated running a deficit when the economy was down, and paying it down when the economy was roaring. Save in good times, spend in bad.
Where's the save in good times?
We had a "peace dividend" back in the 90's, and an economic boom fueled by Internet investment. The government was operating in surplus when it was handed over to a Republican administration. Where DID that surplus go, Brett?
"Do you honestly believe govt is an 'investment'?"
Obviously it is. The people who have wealth could hold on to it the way wealthy people hold on to their wealth in poorly-governed areas, by hiring a private army to keep the poor people from storming the hacienda and stringing up the wealthy people. Keeping a functional government around is cheaper because the poor people provide the army that protects the wealthy people's property.
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Having thought more about it i disagree with the legal analysis. Congress has the power to coin money. By specifying a debt limit and a simultaneous appropriation, congress is in effect telling the Treasury to coin money to make up the difference. Fiat money is not backed by anything, oh well. The fact that we went to fiat money in 1933 does not change the analysis. The Federal reserve can monetize the debt, in effect coining money.
Also, the government has trillions in assets (land, gold, etc). They could sell some.
That "in effect" is doing an awful lot more work than is usually allowed for atextual interpretation.
The problem with choices A or B is that they are not the only options. Appropriations can be paid for by printing money or asset sales. Appropriations do not need to be paid for with debt.
Not only is a trillion dollar coin likely legal (there is no upper bound on the money supply), it might be the only way the Treasury can follow two seemingly conflicting laws at the same time. Printing money is a terrible idea of course, but may be the only legal recourse unless they can sell assets quickly. .
The problem with selling assets quickly is that it is difficult to do this and get a price for the full value of the asset. If we wanted to sell, say, a nuclear submarine, there is a limited number of possible buyers.
The federal government owns a fairly large amount of land in the western states, but they're using those lands to subsidize industries. Leasing grazing land to cattle ranchers, forest lands to lumber producers, and mineral wealth to mining interests. You cut those subsidies off, and there will be ramifications.
We already have a federal coin that's worth WAY more than the value of the precious metal that's in it... the 1932 Gold Double Eagle.
Eventually, we'll have no choice but to go all Bond-Villain/Dr. Evil, and have Biden threaten to start nuking world capitals unless they agree to pay us "One Trillion Dollars" At least we won't have Mini-Me humping the giant space lasers.