The Volokh Conspiracy

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Volokh Conspiracy

CDC's Latest Estimated COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio: 0.65%


"The July 10 update is based on data received by CDC through June 29, 2020″; the 0.65% is the probability of dying once infected. As always, take these with a grain of salt. Among other things,

Many uncertainties remain. For example, current estimates of Infection Fatality Ratios do not account for time-varying changes in hospital capacity (e.g., in bed capacity, ventilator capacity, or workforce capacity) or for differences in rates of underlying health conditions that may contribute to a higher frequency of severe illness in congregate and community settings.  A nursing home, for example, may have a high incidence of infection (due to close contacts among many individuals) and severe disease (due to a high rate of underlying conditions) that does not reflect the frequency or severity of disease in the broader population of older adults.