3 Myths About American Decline
Politicians and the media are telling bogus stories about falling fertility rates, rising inequality, and lack of economic mobility.
HD DownloadThe American Enterprise Institute sociologist Scott Winship says that Americans are prone to believing "declension narratives," or stories about how the Golden Age ended sometime in the past and we have the bad luck to live in a world that is uniquely awful, unfair, and corrupt. Three of today's most prominent and influential declension narratives hold that we're having fewer children because they cost too much money, the rich have captured all the economic gains of the past several decades as income inequality has increased, and that economic mobility has effectively ended.
Winship says such stories are incomplete at best and completely false at worst. He finds that millennial women are more likely to hit their fertility goals than boomer women, strongly suggesting that having fewer children is a cultural choice, not an economic hardship. The Gini coefficient, which measures inequality, has stayed relatively flat since 1989, especially when after-tax transfers are taken into account. Over the same time period, the inflation-adjusted median household income has increased by about $25,000 even as poverty has declined. Contrary to scare stories about younger Americans doing worse than their parents, Winship finds that about 70 percent of 30-year-olds are doing better than their parents at the same age.
For a full discussion of these topics between Nick Gillespie and Winship, go here.
Produced by Noor Greene; written and narrated by Nick Gillespie; audio by Ian Keyser; additional graphics by Isaac Reese.
Music: Aerial Cliff by Michele Nobler, Artlist.
Photos: CNP/AdMedia/SIPA/Newscom, CNP/AdMedia/SIPA/Newscom, ZUMAPRESS/Newscom, Photo 85015883 © Joe Sohm | Dreamstime.com, College of DuPage Flicker.
Videos: archive.org
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This is a cope.
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How silly to skip the obvious reason for fewer kids. Before the Welfare State, children were source of future security. Now you can count on the State to protect and support you.
While that's a nice set-up if you can get it, it's more than a little presumptuous, even in pre-Welfare State times.
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I might agree---I think Goth Fonzi is completely full of shit here---but specifics would be helpful to convince others.
TMI. How's about just 'people are telling bogus stories'. Includes agendas, narratives, idealogies, and lately The Science!
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The reasons the US is pretty much doomed and in decline are completely different: massive debt, currency debasement, massive regulations, a poorly educated workforce, disappearing manufacturing base, disintegration of civil society, lack of social cohesion, failure to enforce laws, widespread institutionalized corruption in government and government contracting.
Yet they keep flooding over the border.
At least when a Democrat is in power. Free money to send back home.
It's because it's familiar territory. (See problems above.)
“Just like home”
Courtesy of half a century of progressive public schooling and self-righteous and entitled boomer parents, the American-born workforce is, on average, also pretty poorly educated.
...and 100 million dirtbag illegal aliens.
THEY are behind the decline.
^^^THIS; Well Said.
You left out endless war, a government that is corrupt beyond belief, and currency debasement.
The main threat to America is the progressive movement. Eliminate them and every other problem group can easily be dealt with.
"falling fertility rates"
That's actually great news from a Koch / Reason libertarian perspective. First, it suggests uterus owners have no trouble accessing abortion care. Second, it provides us with an ironclad argument for our open borders agenda: "See? There just aren't enough young working-age Americans to support our senior citizens. Guess we'll have to import more labor from other countries!"
#ImmigrationAboveAll
#AbortionAboveAll
This article is an excellent example of media soothsaying that has denied and when unable rationalized American decline and the broader decline of Western civilization.
"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."
People like Nick exist to demoralize and mislead while the regime strips our country down to its copper pipes and sell it for parts while humiliating us.
>"You're ALL hallucinating. Overdoses and suicides may be at all time highs, most dignified jobs may have been automated away, and your food may be absolute toxic shit. BUT, these few shitty, "expert"-cherrypicked economic indicators say otherwise, pleb. Plus, you could always work in the Gig Economy."
Loathsome people. Would you trust a guy who looks like this?
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Gillespie#/media/File:Nick_Gillespie_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg
He looks like he's ready to put a bolt in the back of someone's head...
most dignified jobs may have been automated away
You mean factory jobs? There is nothing wrong with factory jobs, but why would you say that these represent most of the "dignified" jobs?
Nothing is more dignified than standing in the same place performing repetitive tasks all day.
Like filling out excel sheets and selling insurance? Not surprised that soft-handed fairyboys making less than union workers welcome automation. And by the way, was referring to self-checkout and other various evils foisted upon us by techno-crapitalism. Moldbug covers this topic well.
I happen to like self checkouts.
Though the blame for those things should be placed squarely on minimum wage laws that make it more profitable to spend tens of thousands of dollars on technology than to hire some inexperienced high school kid.
Their only purpose is humiliation. When checking out you have 2 seconds to move an item from the scanning machine to your bag, lest the woman voice yell at you to "Please place item in bagging area". If you bring your own bags and you put them in the wrong place, she yells at you again "Unexpected item in bagging area." In both instances, a kid with braces has to come over and punch in a code to pacify the woman in the computer.
All automated machines exist to humiliate. Another example, bathroom soap dispensers and faucets that don't work. What's more humiliating than walking around with shit on your hands?
Even traffic lights largely exist to condition you into becoming a docile and compliant sheep.
Modernity is cancer.
You sound like a faggy grandpa, can't wait for more automation so I don't have to interface with unskilled retards like you. Why are you off break wagie? Your 15 minutes are up, back in the wage cage.
A wild Bugman appears.
Oh I'm sorry, would you prefer to wait the extra 15 minutes to check out? Most grocery stores still have cashiers that will crush your eggs under your tin cans for you. They just take longer. And it's not like soap dispensers never ran empty, nor pipes break before the invention of motion sensors. Sure they can be frustrating, but it's not exactly like it's the goal of them to make fun of your limited ability to understand and use them.
While there are definitely times I'm willing to ignore a traffic light, 99% of the time in places I'm driving, it would be silly to not have any sort of lights. Roundabouts and 4 way stops work on low traffic roads, but if you're so unobservant to think that there's any way you're getting 20+ people coordinating an efficient strategy with honking as the sole form of communication, you're the one that is dilusional.
Sure modernity has it's problems, as has EVERY generation and way of living. But life is cancer, or at least always has the possibility of going that way.
Yes. I would rather wait and pay more. How does that make you feel?
Like you pretty much proved what an idiot you are. Why not wait an hour and throw your money in the toilet?
Try not to shit on your hands.
Do modernity and technology actually free us? Or does the system create extra processes that are oppressive and weigh us down, and how long until the system collapses under its own administrative weight?
For example, I just did a refinance. Years ago, the broker would find the investor, synthesize the paperwork, and take care of all administrative tasks. At the end, I'd show up to the lawyer's office and sign the paperwork then pay closing costs. Done. Now, I had to gather all the paperwork myself through online portals that don't work. When I wasn't able to get documentation, I had to submit requests through automated systems no one checked. When that was finally done, I had to go through and synthesize everything before uploading it myself. Numerous administrative tasks that took far longer than they would have if people were involved. By the time my refi closed, I ended up paying significant closing costs anyway. Yet, I did most of the work.
If you had your finances in order, like wouldn’t be so difficult.
See, this was a plus to me, because I don't like dealing with humans, and I have an obsessive streak that makes detailed accounting a fun hobby.
But now that you mention it, the closing costs did seem like a bit of a "fuck you, that's why" fee.
As a sloppy bottom you just have relished the experience.
"...By the time my refi closed, I ended up paying significant closing costs anyway. Yet, I did most of the work."
Yep. Pretty much sounds like someone who prefers to wait and pay more.
"Though the blame for those things should be placed squarely on minimum wage laws"
Exactly!!! As well as the plethora of other Nazi laws that have for years been 'entitling' people right of the basic market of being able to provide for themselves. Problem is; The government doesn't "provide" anything but justice that people need so once the providers have been 'entitled' out of the market we all starve to death while we listen to no-brained authoritarian bookies spew their skewed B.S.
Basically every job that does something useful is dignified. I'm an engineer now, but I've been a janitor. Never thought there was anything undignified about cleaning up other people's messes.
I tell cops they should do something useful and necessary, like washing dishes.
If the cop is following law - the blame really belongs to politicians.
god bless you!!!
A janitor has far more agency and control over their daily tasks than the average office worker, who's micromanaged to death.
This. The technology allows shitty managers to be even shittier managers.
Why can't everyone just learn to code?!!!
Because it requires math and logic, not feelz.
There's nothing wrong with coding jobs. There's nothing wrong with factory jobs. There's nothing wrong with janitorial jobs. I have a hard time though trying to come up with some type of metric to decide which is the more "dignified", however.
Easy. Henry Ford did that.
He hired Immigrants and DEMANDED. (not asked) thst they work hard, be successful, learn to speak ENGLISH and improve themselves or he fired them.
He didnt tolerate deadbeats.
Theres " dignification."
The democrat party celebrates deadbeats.
Comparatively. The replacement jobs the regime is pushing are far less dignified namely gig economy worker and only fans "model". Most of those that go to college don't escape humiliation either. Being a low-level office worker is about as humiliating and emasculating as it gets. The regime then pacifies these humiliated workers with high fructose corn syrup and seed oils, cheap Chinese-made crap, and mind-altering substances like shitty beer and marijuana. The environment of zero sum hypercompetition pushed by monopolists, hyperindividualists, and communists alike to respectively keep wages low, minimize prices, and exert control exacerbates the problem because it closes all reasonable paths out of this involute cycle except for luck alone. In the limit, when there are millions of applicants for a single job, is it even possible to judge those applicants on merit?
Start your own business. See how much freedom you have then.
"...when there are millions of applicants for a single job, is it even possible to judge those applicants on merit?"
You should put that down and get sober once.
Thing is most of these declension narratives are common to both left and right. You think the left is actually right about this? Or maybe these narratives mainly serve the interests of those who want to increase their power over the economy and society?
^THIS
How nice for them. How does that mitigate any of the social and economic problems resulting from a declining fertility rate?
The Gini coefficient measures income inequality; the extreme wealth of the American elite isn't showing up in those statistics. This is the same ignorant analysis as conflating the top 1% of income earners with "the super wealthy" or billionaires.
That seems pretty scary to me. In a growing, successful economy, that number should be higher, since economic growth should compensate even for significant downward mobility.
But don't let facts get in the way of your dancing while Rome burns.
that's funny. A large number of millennial women are completely infertile by their 30s because they have the same sexual history as the average gay man in a 1980s San Francisco bathhouse.
My point is: for the American decline, it doesn't matter why women have fewer children, what matters is that they do.
I want to have a drink with you.
Wow, I didn't realize that fertility rates are actually rising in the US and inequality is falling. Good thing this gillespie guy is on the beat.
What in the world are we going to do with all of these extra kids, and all of this widespread shared economic prosperity? Maybe call it a day, and reason can shut down with the announcement "mission accomplished"?
Economic prosperity? We head almost three years of that. Then a bunch of democrat governors destroyed their states economies through shutdowns and tolerance of democrat rioters. Now we have a senile usurper in the presidency.
The economy is currently cratering. Even with many states finally reopening after being closed by democrats for no reason, the last jobs reports jobs report was 75% below estimates.
Maybe we shouldn't have shot our economy in the crotch in favor of keeping up racial purity.
That's what people need to understand. Conservatives will burn their house down before they give up their cultural assumptions, especially the ones about how they're better than people with more melanin.
As opposed to those on the left who feel that melanin makes people so inferior that they need special treatment, while accusing those who say everyone should be treated equally of racism.
Look around yourself. How many brown people are in your political cohort?
Explain why they're all in mine, if we're so condescending.
Why do most people of color vote for the party of free shit for colored people? I dunno. You tell me.
Neither party gives out less free shit than the other. It is always about who gets it.
That's a definition of government. It doesn't create anything. It only takes and gives.
Nobody creates anything. It's basic physics.
But some people decrease local entropy.
Economic creation obviously does not mean making something ex nihilo (that means "out of nothing," by the way.) Economic creation means devising and making a new configuration of matter and energy that didn't previously exist as suchvto achieve an existing purpose better or to achieve an altogether new purpose.
"Nobody creates anything. It’s basic physics."
Nobody accuses shitstain of actual "thought".
It’s also about how much more they promise them at election time. We could fix this if people like Tony were cleansed from America.
Okay, so which law gives "free shit for colored people"?
The first round was called “the great society”. Then there were racial quotas but they were challenged. Then they called it affirmative action. But people figured out that was the same thing.
So then the critical theory stuff came about to actually reverse the basic colorblind assumptions of actual civil rights. And magically change racism into anti-racism. And now diversity, inclusion, and equity programs in every industry and institution creates “diversity” commissar and advisory positions to promise jobs jobs jobs for those at the top of the oppression hierarchy.
For those who don’t want jobs, there’s always those promises of reparations and access to free college and health care based on race.
Fun fact, at my grocery store, they now have tags indicating the race/sex of the product company owners. So you can shop by identity.
I don't see how any of this concerns you.
And that's the point isn't it? You're just mad someone, somewhere is talking about a problem that doesn't have anything to do with you.
"Government should take care of all my interests, fuck everyone else" is not a political philosophy, it's being a child and an asshole.
"I don’t see how any of this concerns you."
It's his money, shitstain, and you got called on your lies once more.
Tony is a net recipient who lives off all of us so he doesn’t understand. He never understands.
Smug and stupid is a bad combination.
And eventually, “your side” is going to have to do something about POCs pesky predilections for religion. But I’ve heard the southern Baptist convention and other church governing bodies have gone woke already, so maybe not.
Um....
- White House Initiative on Historically Black Colleges & Universities
- White House Initiative and Presidents Advisory Commission on Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders
Now do sexist agencies....
- White House office Council on Women & Girls
- White House office on Violence against Women
Then pull welfare recipient records and notice that 86% of healthcare welfare goes to non-natives (minus Asian who actually runs about 1% less than native).
I'd place bets on the fact that Tony lives in a Democratic area; and that alone is exactly why he see's "racism" in everything. Democrats are racist - it's plain as day.
I come from a very Republican area. We have "colored people" everywhere and 1/2 of them are some of the best people you'll meet and the other 1/2 are some of the worst (especially illegal immigrants -- I mean common; they broke the law from the very beginning obviously their 'good' is lacking right off the bat.) JUST as it is with EVERY 'color' of skinned people....
But Democrats only see SKIN COLOR... They are very very racist to their very gangster like core.
....After all that's what unlimited "Democracy" IS. [WE] mobs rule mentality. The name fits perfectly. The fact propaganda has convinced people Democracy is what makes the USA great is why it's getting torn apart like the Soviet Union.
No; It's a Constitutional Union of Republican States with "The People's" Supreme Law. That's what made the USA great...
So your problem is talking about race.
Hey, you're not affected by racism, so racism must not be a thing.
That's not what I said Tony; The Democratic party (party of slavery) is definitely Racist. Always has been always probably will be as well as sexist, Marxist, socialist... It's very foundation is [WE] mob mentality and gangster Gov-Gun *Power*.
I think you enjoy playing stupid.
He's not playing.
"if we pass this [welfare act] we'll have those niggers voting Democrat for the next 100 years" - lbj
Your side created a dependancy on government by bribing minority in order to get votes. Your side doesn't care about helping people or equality, which is why your side completely opposed the civil rights act in the 1950. And befor you start with your already disproven history all of the dems that voted against it stayed dems and the south didn't become republican until a generation after it when the dems went full progressive. Throughout American history its your side that has alway been "look at the negro in its natural habitat of flinging poo in a cage"
thank you. Democrats were born racist (Jackson / Trail of Tears) and were overtly / publicly racist into the 1960s. Anti-civil rights act, pro-segregation, pro-eugenics & pro-abortion to eliminate undesirables, pro-internment of Japanese, anti-semitic. Thoroughly racist for most of their miserable history.
They then discovered that overt racism was a poor way to get votes, particularly in an increasingly diverse society. So Democrats remain racist, but on the outside it looks a little different. Biden is clearly a racist of the controlling and condescending type ("you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy"; also see the 1994 crime bill).
The whole of CRT, promulgated by lefties & dems, is to control and maneuver toward a Marxist society by dividing based on race. Denigrating any race as evil is repulsive.
Democrats are in the stripe of Hitler and Mao and have been the most racist party for the last near-200 years. Modern Republicans aren't far behind, but have a lot of catching up to do. They still believe in MLK of a society that isn't race obsessed, and are nowhere near the level of cynical race control of the Dems.
So is it that black people are greedier than white people, or stupider?
I'm having trouble understanding the thrust of your explanation for why almost no black people vote for the allegedly superior Republicans.
That's a good question Tony. Why would black people vote for the party of slavery?? You'd think there would be absolutely no excuse for it.. I'd guess its because of lefty-indoctrination; Ya know like how 91% of North Koreans think their leader is actually a 'god'.
Tony looks around and only see brown gay turds.
Because black people are about 14% of the population, but they get about 90% of the media coverage and political pandering, mostly an attempt to convince white democrats to show up and vote against white racist boogymen of their own imagination.
There's little political power in 14%, but there's a lot of political power in convincing half the country that the other half is racist, and that you can prove your non-racism by voting accordingly.
Hence, the current moment.
So black people are more easily manipulated by media than you.
Lots of people are more easily manipulated than me, regardless of race.
I’m more intelligent and independent than 99% of everybody. Naturally, that’s proportional to all the subgroups.
Anyone who supports Republicans is either an idiot or a nihilist, and I don't take you for an "I stand with Joker" type.
Your average retarded toddler can see that it's a bad idea to put Donald Trump in charge of the nuclear arsenal.
I don’t have to support republicans to call out propaganda BS. It would be easier to avoid that if democrats were more honest. That’s not on me.
Meanwhile, your ability to fall in mental lockstep with democrats and spout out their talking points isn’t very impressive.
Luckily for all of us, Democrats are compelled by political expedience to maintain some close relationship with objectivity, facts, and science. The fact that all of the educated people vote for them keeps them on their toes in that way.
Unfortunately, this makes them less agile with politics. It's easy to get votes when you don't feel compelled to tell the truth and don't have the moral compunction not to sell racist conspiracy theories to fearful goobers.
Sure they are, when they’re not busy saying “everything’s subjective!” as an excuse to make up history, science, gender issues, conspiracy theories, economic illiteracy, etc.
Why don't you get even MORE 'lucky' and keep your 'scientific truth' delusions OUT-OF Federal Gov-Guns?????????????????????
Seriously; Democrats can live in the most Nazi cities ever seen - I couldn't care less but when your 'science' destroys you. Don't come migrating over to the Republican States before changing your bloody tampon mind.
You should get your facts about the world from the source and not second-hand via right-wing media talking heads.
Tony, you're the one that told me that everything is a lie we make up to explain the world.
If you think you can say that, and then claim to be society's standard bearer for objectivity, then your complete lack of self-awareness is comical.
When you think it's OK to blackwash history because you can think of time when someone whitewashed history, you don't get to pretend to be objective. You're just another liar.
Your average retarded toddler can see that it’s a bad idea to put Donald Trump in charge of the nuclear arsenal.
SleepyJoe brings so much stability to that situation.
He wasn't my first choice in the primary.
Your average retarded toddler WAS WRONG -- now wasn't he/she.
It's funny how Donald Trump worked out a piece treaty with North Korea's nuclear arsenal; and your so afraid of Trump having any say in such matters.
As opposed to a senile fool who has a 47 year record of fucking everyone to pander to the rich.
And for the record, I hated Trump. But if you think Biden is "better" you are as stupid as you think any republican voter is.
This is why I refuse to vote; haven''t since 1992, and I am damn proud of it - it's nothing but a choice between 2 people guaranteed to shit on me. I'm too nihilistic on the USA to play the fool for this bullshit system.
Trump tried to overthrow the government of the United States. And is still trying. He dealt with a major global catastrophe by sowing doubts about its severity and jumping on conspiracy theories instead of doing anything about it. He is a mentally ill bigot.
You're insane if you think Biden isn't better. You are fucking insane if you think that.
"Trump tried to overthrow the government of the United States."
Kudos for Trump then!!!
REALITY: Trump tried to overthrow the Nazi (def; National Socialist) government that took over the United States.
I believed he specifically referred to it as the "swamp".
Why is this TRUE???????????????????????????
The U.S. Constitution is SUPPOSE to be the Supreme Law of the government of the United States and that Supreme Law doesn't grant the Federal government of the United States authority to do even 2% of what it's been doing.
See how Tony tries create racial division with his every keystroke. It can’t help itself. And he is the most vicious racist on these comment boards.
There’s little political power in 14%, but there’s a lot of political power in convincing half the country that the other half is racist, and that you can prove your non-racism by voting accordingly.
Very good point.
"Explain why they’re all in mine, if we’re so condescending."
Your projected ownership of black people is noted
Why do you assume that people who vote for your candidate are in your cohort?
Why project that onto society when half of eligible Americans don't vote?
Tony's side wants to pour salt all over the headshot it gave the economy last year. But it's totes the fault of white nationalist or something.
You'll have to describe the process you describe, Tony.
*describe the process you assert
A gallon of gas and a match usually works.
How did they "shoot the economy in the crotch to keep up racial purity"?
I'm genuinely curious.
Step 1: steal underware
Step 2: something
Step 3: economy shot in the crotch for racial purity
There was always a tension in the Republican party. Their corporate donors liked a broken immigration system because it meant cheap laborers with no rights. But in order to get the votes of their voting base, they had to pretend to be working on fixing the system in order to keep the browns from corrupting the gene pool.
The crazies took over the asylum, as you might have noticed, and decided to finally pick a side. Of course, culture war won over pragmatic indentured servitude.
And now they're whining that they can't find white people willing to work for peanuts.
Do you think they'll favor raising wages or taking away white workers' rights first?
“Do you think they’ll favor raising wages or taking away white workers’ rights first?”
Like lockdowns? Which take away workers rights, lower the supply of labor, and cause wages to rise?
Definitely a Republican scheme.
You do understand how pandemics work, right?
I'm about genuinely sick of you rightwing assholes assuming the right to take context and skullfuck it out of existence.
Yeah, lockdowns. Just lockdowns. No reason, just to kill freedom for the pure psychopathic joy.
I guess it’s a good thing welfare benefits are keeping people out of the workforce. Otherwise, some workers might start earning some real money doing something productive. Heaven forbid.
And you come here to profusely shitpost on a site you hate - so you must be fucking stupid. And have WAY too much time on your hands - why don't you take up a hobby? Because if this is your hobby that is really pathetic.
I've set plenty of fires, and I can assure that one match is never enough.
You're not using the right tinder, then.
You should pour it on yourself and light the match. You’re flaming anyway.
The person who introduced me to this website told me that 5 to 10 years ago you used to constantly ridicule Koch / Reason libertarianism as nothing more than a get-even-richer scheme for billionaires. Yet here you are now, embracing Charles Koch's quest for cost-effective imported labor in a way that would make Shikha Dalmia proud.
I'm glad you finally came to your senses and realized anti-billionaire posturing from a Democrat just doesn't work now that Democrats are clearly the pro-billionaire party.
#IfTonyCanSupportTheBillionaireAgendaTheresHopeForEveryone
I'm in a different place. Reason is still the mouthpiece for the Koch brother, but I can no longer in good conscience positively advocate for restricting human freedom. I'm not in this to prove myself right about any cultural assumptions I inherited from my parents. I'm here to eat bonbons on my sailboat.
We're gonna die one day. It's not gonna matter which race you were better than. We're all worm food in the end.
You always advocate for restricting human freedom, Tony.
Yes, Tony, you should remind yourself of that every single day, and maybe one day you can overcome your racism and fascism.
Narrator: He could not.
You have to understand what freedom is before you can advocate for it.
You wouldn't want to wake up one day and realize you spent your life advocating for oligarchy and corporate servitude under the mistaken impression that it had something to do with freedom, would you?
Yes, one does have to understand what freedom is before one can advocate for it. Pampered, ignorant, entitled children of a social welfare state like you don't.
Oligarchy and corporate servitude is what you have been advocating for years. You're just too dumb and ignorant to recognize it, and you will never "wake up".
Whatever you say, party man. There’s no way you could ever regret your loyalty to that.
I just want him to die now, instead of ‘someday’.
We're all going to die one day, it's not going to matter...
pretty much covers everything.
In the meantime I would like it if I could live in a stable functioning democracy. It's hard to get bonbons delivered in the camps, I presume.
Don’t expect me to care. I have my bonbons, and you’ll be stardust in practically a few seconds anyway.
I don't expect you to care. You probably think you're of the right demographic and occupation to avoid the camps.
This merely makes me question why you bother having political ideas at all if the sum total of your concern for society is "I got mine, fuck you." That's not an uncommon attitude, but it's also not an interesting one.
What’s boring is limiting your imagination to what’s going on between the ears of democrats. That’s boring.
Yet, you are advocating destroying ours. Why is that?
Then. I’ve to another country. The US isn’t a democracy. It’s a constitutional republic. I’m fact, the word ‘democracy’ doesn’t even appear in the constitution.
No race is better than any other. And yet the solution of modern progressive thinking is CRT: basically, "whites are inherently racist." And no other races are, apparently.
You will rot in hell once the worms are done with filth like you.
I'm sorry you completely miss the point of that discussion, but I honestly believe that is partly the fault of progressives who don't explain it well enough. You've made a good-faith attempt to listen to those arguments, and not just the hysterical pandering screeching of fascist TV personalities, I presume.
We know your arguments. They’re shit. Also, you are neither worthy of respect or civility. So you are treated accordingly.
Which is still better than you deserve. We really do spoil you here.
Well then hurry the fuck up.
Yes, Tony, to racists like you, immigration is about race and melanin.
To me, as an immigrant, it's about culture, economics, and principles. And I certainly don't want to live in the kind of totalitarian sh*thole that you want to create, Tony.
Then you must favor strict immigration restrictions from Scandanavia, yes?
I favor limiting immigration to those with proven skills, proven high earning potential, and a demonstrated commitment to self-determination, liberalism and tolerance, regardless of where they are from or what skin color they have.
To racists like you, that is just a concept that's obviously too hard to grasp.
How dare you think that as an immigrant that you know more about immigration than a shit-lib. SIt down and shut up, and take your proper place as assigned by coastal liberals!
Okay, fair enough. I don't believe in submitting immigrants to purity-of-thought tests, but we don't all care about liberty equally.
Immigrants have been valuable for low-skilled labor as well as skilled labor, so I don't know why you care about that either.
Well, I do.
Obviously not. After all, people like you have been running roughshod over the right to self-determination of the American people for decades.
Valuable to whom? That's right: big corporations and agribusinesses. For most Americans, flooding the country with cheap labor lowers their wages and increases their cost of living.
You're making the same kind of argument that Southerners used to make for slavery.
They were democrats too. Just like Tony.
The Gini coefficient, which measures inequality, has stayed relatively flat since 1989,
The real value of the Internet is how easy it is to reveal when flimflam is being used to sell bullshit that has been whitewashed.
The study itself says something a bit different - specifically:
The American Compass report concludes that “income inequality is at its highest point in nearly 75 years.” Technically, its own estimates (which are from the Census Bureau) show that inequality (measured by the “Gini coefficient”) peaked in 2017. But it’s true that inequality is basically at a post-World War II high. Still, the report overstates the increase and obscures its timing.
Visually - the Gini coefficient from 1913-2009 - shows pretty much the same thing except it stops at 2009.
IOW the data itself is ok. It may or may not be accurate but it is what we've got and we're all talking about the same raw data. The basic study and analysis looks ok - initially at least. What is bullshit - and pretty clearly ideologically/politically driven (meaning lying through your fucking teeth about) is the visually kind of arbitrary '1989' starting point and the mealy mouthed 'stayed relatively flat' conclusion. The summary - separated from the details, the analysis, or the data - which is all anyone will care about.
Gillespie. You are a manipulative lying sociopath. Presumably you are doing this because you are a Koch/donor whore. There is no other explanation when a summary differs so much from the underlying analysis
The gillespie and winship guys are borrowing strategy from the very effective climate change denial strategy most effectively implemented by Myron Ebell.
Ebell said; "If you concede the facts, you've already lost" (because this allows moving on to policy ideas, which require action).
If you tread on the disputing the facts themselves, action will be delayed, which is the end goal anyway. So why ever concede the facts?
Agree. See below
I've looked at more recent data, that had it peaking in '18, but the truth is the coefficient shot up from 34.5 in '79, to 40.4 in '93, and it's been in a narrow band from 40 to 41.5 ever since.
So it was the 80's and early 90's when the wheels really came off.
The only meaningfulness of a 1989 break point is because interest rates (and in particular the subsidy of those) has a very significant effect on where Gini coefficients manifest.
1989 is a reasonable point before which interest rates were not subsidized at all over a full business cycle. Indeed, the reason the 1980's appears to mark the huge ramp up in inequality is precisely because the 1980's were when interest rates came back to Earth and became 'normal' rather than punitively used to support the dollar (break inflation) and obliterate manufacturing/exports. After 1989, we have been on roughly a 30 year subsidy of interest rates. Which means assets have been repriced - which mean that Gini measures shift from income inequality to wealth inequality. Sources of income can change - for the upper class who can live off their assets rather than their labor.
Sure enough it looks like Gini coefficient for wealth has gone from 0.79 to 0.87 or so. And in particular (and quite surprising to me) the change has occurred among the younger age groups not the older ones. Meaning, this inequality isn't a result of people getting older or govt welfare re retirement/medicare. It is likely a result of Americans being far more sharply divided into 'children of jetsetter vacation class' and 'children of couch potato vacation class'. I suppose it might be possible that it could also be result of tech IPO's - but I really doubt it.
This inequality has a much different effect on future economic mobility. And it would be worth studying to see if it's true - if the purpose behind this was to understand reality rather than to sell some political/ideological flimflam
Yes, we can all stream the Ramones on our Huawei phone while waiting for our stimulus checks.
We just spent a year in lockdown, and are STILL not out of it (particularly if you live in a blue state), I'm having a hard time believing that things are "better than ever".
Yes, this is a complex subject. Yes, my refrigerator and freezer is overflowing with abundance. This is a good thing. But my streets are lined with tents, used needles and the morgue full of dead bodies from overdoses. Crime is on the rise (and even then, grossly undercounted by feckless politicians who play catch-and-release to keep the numbers down).
Oh, and then we keep finding out shit like this, and I'm supposed to ignore that in the equation?
Move out of the crappy large city you apparently live in. You will feel better.
I'm working on it.
"I make 100,000 a year, I have a 100 sq foot efficiency cube for $3,400 a month and ride an e-scooter to work!"
Other than the relatively undisputed fact that Americans are dying on average younger for the 3rd (and almost certainly 4th) year in a row, *combined* with the relatively undisputed fact that they're being replaced at the lowest rate in almost a century, *combined* with the relatively unequivocally undisputed fact that the debt is higher than it's ever been and doesn't even show the slightest hint of shrinking, America is as great as it ever was and shows no signs of decline.
Now, back to work. Nothing to see here.
So falling birthrates don't really exist because it's a "cultural choice" instead of a disease or the estrogen in soy or something. Right. But isn't that sort of the point -- that it's a cultural choice? Yet another 'reason' hard fail in the logic department.
Yet another ‘reason’ hard fail in the logic department.
Let alone the larger fail in terms of liberty/logic. Chinese birthing machines meet their, ahem, culture's fertility *goals* (talk about moving the goalpost) of one child 95% of the time but American women meet their culture's fertility goals of 0 children 100% of the time. Liberty wins!
It's not a cultural choice. Falling fertility rates are a normal and healthy response in populations under stress across the entire animal kingdom. What the hell! The plant kingdom too I'll vouchsafe.
Falling fertility rates are a normal and healthy response in populations under stress across the entire animal kingdom.
Falling fertility rates are an abnormal and unhealthy response in populations being hunted or driven to extinction as well.
I disagree. If the population is being driven to extinction, individuals will have enough problems in the short term to make the investment in child rearing justifiable. It makes perfect sense to forego having children when times are tough. I'm surprised this is in doubt. Stressed rabbits even go so far as to eat their young. It's not a cultural choice.
If the population is being driven to extinction, individuals will have enough problems in the short term to make the investment in child rearing justifiable.
It's simple physics dumbass. Travelling 100 ft. to find a mate is easier than travelling 500 ft. is easier than travelling 5,000 ft. Moreover, presuming the hunt or drive to extinction is agnostic with regard to the species survival, the time required to mate, nest, and rear young at best facilitates the "hunter" as much as the species. The more time the frog in the proverbial pot of water spends mating rather than jumping out, the more likely they are to die regardless of how many frogs there are. It's not until the frog(s) decide (or are incentivized) to jump out rather than mate that the species is potentially saved.
Which circles around to the argument at hand. If more women were hitting their fertility goals *and* the birth rate were sustainable; more frogs both in and out of the pot. But, without an alternative method of reproducing, hitting fertility goals with a falling/unsustainable birthrate is just more frogs content to sit in the pot.
"It’s simple physics dumbass. Travelling 100 ft. to find a mate is easier than travelling 500 ft. is easier than travelling 5,000 ft. "
How do you explain Taiwan's status as the most dense populace on the planet while having the lowest fertility rate? Since the Taiwanese only have to travel a short distance to find a mate, you'd think their fertility rate would be among the highest on the planet! But in fact the opposite is true. Maybe there is more afoot here than simple physics. Have you ever thought of that?
If soy caused low birthrate, explain the presence of 1.5 billion Chinese, who, according to Redd Foxx, keep coming, which is why there are so many of them?
Explain also why they kept coming during The Green Revolution, when soy was a big thing touted to end hunger?
The Alt-Right crowd literally don't know dick about either nutrition or reproduction. Best to get that advice elsewhere.
The 'or something' appended to 'estrogen in soy' indicates he's not making an earnest argument of fact as much as giving a vague hypothetical example.
His point being that an exogenous or environmental source isn't exactly a choice and can't have malice ascribed to it directly (e.g. whether soy has estrogen or not, it doesn't hate humans) where as a cultural source is a choice and can contain malice.
I just wanted to rule out soy out completely as a cause because I am so sick of hearing stigma attached to soy by these weird Alt-Right types. I mean, I like edamame beans with my steak. Does that make me bi-soylant?
I don't think anyone outside of anti-GMO, anti-monoculture/industrial farming leftists is calling for soy to be banned and even then It's more of just a significant reduction in the amount of commodity soy produced not all soy/edamame. All sides seem pretty averse to (e.g.) making soy even a class III controlled substance.
The Alt-Right/Alt-Light love calling their opponents "Soy-Boys" and attribute to them traits like full beards, open mouth-breathing perpetual smiles, and thousand-mile stares, and Wokeness, among other traits. They may not support oitlawing soy now, but the Alt-Right/Alt-Light do also support the anti-science, anti-high-tech farming, anti-urbanist Zeitgeist supported by many Leftists, so like Michael Palin said when playing Himmler: "Soon, baby!...Soon!"
they are soy boys. fact. soy creates pseudo estrogen in males
So I ask again:
If this is true that soy creates pseudo-estrogen or real estrogen in males, why are there 1.5 billion Chinese who eat soy and keep coming (which is why there are 1.5 billion of them?)
Please try to keep up.
This article starts measuring inequality after 1989, after a massive surge in inequality. This is a joke.
Inequality may have been higher during the feudal age (1300s) but I'm not sure.
Maybe 1200s. The great bubonic plague of the 1300s was a great leveller. In more ways than one.
Some theorize that the Enlightenment was a direct result of the plague, since it would have jolted social attitudes and freed up some thought for other things besides existing cultural hierarchies.
And we can see the same thing happening now that covid is running its course in this country. Everyone's like "So explain why I have to spend 5 decades pretending to work in a cubicle? Why did I ever agree to that?"
Everyone’s like “So explain why I have to spend 5 decades pretending to work in a cubicle? Why did I ever agree to that?”
Nothing says "I want to get out there and live my life my way!" like staying indoors and wearing masks because the CDC said so.
The CDC, which monitors and responds to pathogenic threats to humanity---one of the few things that could end the species.
Frivolous social welfare!
The CDC, which monitors and responds to pathogenic threats to humanity—one of the few things that could end the species.
Remains to be proven, exceptionally/especially in humans. Name one species that was eliminated by disease alone. IDs are a absolutely a reason why species become rare but so are falling birthrates, lack of resources, geo-political upheaval/competition for territory, etc., etc.
If the CDC were so gung ho about or effective at preventing/stopping the spread of infectious diseases they should be doing better with diseases that are more easily prevented, like HIV.
that would require properly condemning the Sodomites..
We’ll talk to the average progressive and they think inequality is still shooting up and has been since the 1970s. Data shows this is only partly true: there was big jump in inequality in 1980s but then has been rising pretty slowly.
So basically your argument is, it's not really a decline, because it's a choice?
What are "fertility goals"? Having children? If so, how does the idea that millennial women hitting them sooner than boomer women prove that economics is not a factor in having fewer children? Mr. Winship also claims that "about 70 percent of 30-year-olds are doing better than their parents at the same age." That may be, but when their grandparents were 30, they could buy a home, a car, raise a family of 2.3 children, pay all their bills on time, and do it on one income. When the parents of these 30 year-olds were 30, they were probably in the middle of a depression and watching all the good jobs head overseas.
According to my sources fertility rate is something like 1,73, below replacement rate. The age at which mothers give birth to their first born has risen recently from 21 to 26, at the same sort of increase is seen among first time fathers. In addition life expectancy is shrinking. These 3 trends mean a decline in fertility.
Not there's anything wrong with that. A falling fertility rate is a healthy and natural response of a population under stress. For humans and animals.
Also a population with wealth, education, and access to reproductive rights.
Don't worry, Amy Coney Barrett will have all the women in Handmaid training in no time.
I am betting you have a poster in your pink frilly bedroom with a bunch of guys dressed up like handmaidens and ACB whipping them.
I'm right, aren't I.
It's more of a turquoise and gold motif.
A falling fertility rate is a healthy and natural response of a population under stress. For humans and animals.
Not true. Coyote populations, for example, when under stress show greatly heightened fertility. When a pack is stable and prosperous, their fertility goes down.
I'm not sure packs (numbering maybe a dozen?) are relevant here. I had much larger aggregations in mind. And the most determinative stress is high population density.
Fossil records show a common response to environmental stress on a population is for the population to migrate away from the stressful environment. Something Canada has long been on alert for.
And why I hope to get the fuck out of this shithole in the next year or so. I'd rather watch it implode on TV than out my front window.
And the most determinative stress is high population density.
Nope. Individuals and species can recover from or overcome high population density. The most determinative stress is death/extinction.
"Individuals and species can recover from or overcome high population density."
Yes, I completely agree. They do it by lowering fertility rates. Taiwan is the world's most densely populated 'country' on the planet. It's a modern, wealthy, vibrant place. Fertility rate: 1,07 children per woman. The lowest for any 'country' on the planet.
Have you spent much time in Taiwan? If you had, you'd know they really pack them in.
They do it by lowering fertility rates.
This is but one of many ways. They migrate in any number of ways. They employ/consume non-competitive resources (e.g. buffalo eating deciduous grasses, zebra eating stems and scrubgrass, giraffes browsing leaves, and hippos grazing on river grasses). They engage in conflict and cannibalism. etc. etc.
OK, Taiwan has a higher population density (~650/sq. km) and a low fertility rate, so how are American women at a lower population density (~30/sq. km) having their fertility rate depressed to a greater degree? The overt implication is that whatever causes Tai women to be less fertile is being exogenously induced on American women without the concomitant 'crowding'. Moreover, on the American side, the flight from places like LA, NYC, Chicago, and Detroit (could) indicate that the women/people are being driven out by whatever stressors are causing those that remain to become less fertile.
"so how are American women at a lower population density (~30/sq. km) having their fertility rate depressed to a greater degree? "
Population density is only one of the factors that cause the stress that evidently shrinks fertility rates.
"They migrate in any number of ways. "
I agree migration is an answer but not always possible. Loss of habitat is one of the biggest causes of extinction. As for diversifying diets, that is only a temporary solution. Without reducing fertility rates, eventually these new food sources will be exhausted and we'll be right back where we started.
As for diversifying diets, that is only a temporary solution.
Yeah, it was so temporary it's only supported the differentiation of untold species over millions of years from bacteria and chemolithotrophes to zebras and giraffes.
Alternate hypothesis clarifying what I'm saying and rectifying the disconnect regarding physics above (hopefully): Hyper-empathy. Physics applies regardless of feelings. Whether the species feels like it's going extinct or not, unsustainable numbers are unsustainable. The fact that Western women's fertility rates are dropping despite the fact that they aren't subject to nearly the same amount of stressors suggests a pathological hyper-empathy. Whether the hyper-empathy is exogenous or internal, the parallels between Taiwanese fertility rates dropping in the face of a much higher population density suggests a pathological hyper-empathy among Western women undergoing a similar drop despite facing nowhere near the same stressors.
Unless, of course, you consider the socialist takeover in Taiwan to be similar to what's happening in the US currently. Whether the women at a population density of 35/sq. km feel like they're being stressed in a manner similar to women at 650/sq. km naturally or whether it's because of progressive socialism, it doesn't bode well for their feelings of individual liberty.
from bacteria and chemolithotrophes
Bacteria and archaea/extremophiles, YKWIM.
"Yeah, it was so temporary it’s only supported the differentiation of untold species "
But there are probably hundreds of reasons why species have diversified their diets over the years. Perhaps increased population density is one of them, but maybe not a terribly important one. I think you were on the right track with migration being a more important response.
"The fact that Western women’s fertility rates are dropping despite the fact that they aren’t subject to nearly the same amount of stressors suggests a pathological hyper-empathy"
It's not just women's fertility and it's not just westerners that are subject to the drop in fertility. Men's sperm counts have declined all over the world. And people are facing stresses other than high population density. The pressures of providing food, shelter etc. are also stressful. "3 jobs? Only in America," I remember George Bush telling a stressed out supporter. So I think it's inaccurate to say that women (or men) in the states are not subject to the same amount of stress as in Taiwan; different sources of stress, perhaps, but stress nevertheless.
"whether it’s because of progressive socialism, it doesn’t bode well for their feelings of individual liberty."
Hong Kong, with its reputation as a haven for capitalism and individual freedom, has both a low fertility rate, something like 1.3, and an extremely high population density. Mong Kok is (or was) notorious for being the densest neighborhood on the planet.
It’s not just women’s fertility
Fair. I only limited it to women as that's how the discussion began (and is typically the relatively terminal or nexus/proxy metric for reproduction).
However, none of the rest of what you say refutes my point. Fewer total members of a species combined with those members being subject to greater stress isn't a sign of wealth or liberty. Rather that whatever metric is being used as a sign of wealth or liberty is a poor one. The notion that just because capitalism exists in Hong Kong means that people are more free is exactly what I'm talking about. If they're required, by de facto or de rigueur, to do nothing besides generate capital, they're not free.
"they’re not free"
As long as Joe Biden occupies the White House, can anyone be truly free?
Mexico has added 27 million people since 2000. Do you think that's from stress or prosperity?
"Do you think that’s from stress or prosperity?"
Neither. I blame fucking. Stress does not cause increased fertility, Even if you are a Mexican.
This needs to be articulated on the YouTube channel, where it has some hope of being shared. Text articles on websites visited mostly by people who agree, aren't the way anymore.
Probably worth also educating people, who seem to have forgotten their history, and the regimes we fought so hard, on National Socialism and its allies Fascism and, initially, Stalinism, with its Gulag Archipelago (do modern people read it?), the Khmer Rouge, the Chinese and Russian police states, the once great countries south of America that, despite massive oil wealth in a few cases, and other resources, the poorest skip on their way to our border. (Where will they go if we turn socialist? Why is socialism so terrible for the poorest that they choose America instead, if America is supposedly so bad for the poor? Why do free market countries (plus Russia, I'll ignore China's mess of a vaccine) have covid vaccines, not the countries that claim to care so much about the people? Massive cognitive dissonance.)
"Gulag Archipelago (do modern people read it?)"
I am the very model of a modern major commenter and I've read the abridged version. It was still too long and repetitive. But read it anyway.
And say what you want about Pol Pot and the KR, at least they had the intelligence to start their calendar at the year 0, unlike Robespierre and that gang of fucking goofs.
So you're saying "At least they had an ethos?"
I am the very model of a modern major commenter
Whoa! I thought you were going to breakout The Pirates of Penzance.
What, me worry?
Crisis? What crisis?
This article is basically the equivalent of literary tripe.
It's predicated on academic supposition. America our great nation IS in decline. You can see it everywhere you go. I went on a cross country trip not too long ago. 30 states 25 large cities. It was shocking. Not the America I remember. Not the America we deserve as citizens.
"America our great nation IS in decline."
For the most part, yes. But Inuit (Eskimo) culture has never been stronger or more influential. Their emblematic symbol, for example, the Inuksuk (a stone, vaguely human shaped cairn) has progressively spread from its home in the high arctic, and the structures can now be found as far south as Mexico, That is anything but decline.
The advice of "Watch out wher the huskies go and don't you eat that yellow snow." also spread to Frank Zappa's studio, so there's that.
There was also a picture of one on Rush's final album.
This article is basically the equivalent of literary tripe.
Yeah. Pertaining it to the data/topic indicated, women having greater access to birth control, abortion (generally or nominally), and being less subject to rape and then subsequently refusing to participate in sex at greater rates isn't exactly a sign of increased liberty. Generalizing, people refusing to participate or invest in something despite less risk than at any time in the past isn't a sign of freedom. Especially, something that is supposedly enjoyable. Interpolating or translating, getting wealthier and owning fewer cars and traveling less is hardly a sign of increased liberty and arguably/reasonably indicates something is wrong with whatever the measure of wealth is.
'Declension" is what de Natalists be defending, Mon! Especially de declenching of de vajayjay, mon!
Another possible cause of shrinking fertility rates is that male sperm counts and testosterone levels are declining worldwide. A lot more dubious is the research that shows in wealthier nations male penis size is also shrinking, due apparently to exposure to certain pollutants while still in the womb.
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If they are post-menopausal, they'll be in big demand!
I have two kids - one in her twenties and one in his thirties. Both are married and own their own homes. Both are professionals with college degrees. Both have household incomes higher than my wife and I ever attained. The American dream is not dead for those willing to work for it. If you expect the government or someone else to guarantee a stable middle class life style, you are going to be disappointed.
I have two kids – one in her twenties and one in his thirties. Both are married and own their own homes. Both are professionals with college degrees. Both have household incomes higher than my wife and I ever attained.
Not to judge your children too harshly but you're missing a pertinent part of the equation: do one or both have as many or more kids than you and your wife? Two people having greater access to resources than their two predecessors doesn't mean much, especially if the millions of others around them winnows down. A family with 2 kids being less well off than two families with no kids, one kid, or two kids between them isn't exactly notable or exceptional.
but its dead when Government controls everything in favor of non- producers, illegal aliens and criminals who they pay to do nothing.
Were back at the cause of the fall of Rome- invading barbarian hordes!
"If you expect the government or someone else to guarantee a stable middle class life style, you are going to be disappointed."
Are either of your kids in debt? Do they really 'own' these houses? Expecting the banks to guarantee a stable, middle class lifestyle is even more foolish.
The biggest, most dangerous myth is that institutionalized force/fraud is the only way to protect rights, the American Dream.
I was surprised when all the cops abandoned their station to be burned, looted. I wondered what their strategy could be.
It was to give Antifa plenty of rope to discredit itself and scare the populace into accepting the false choice of "law/police/order or chaos". We watched as MSM showed middle-class businesses destroyed by rioters, over and over, relentlessly, as if no other scenario were possible. Not once did MSM show untouched stores that were protected privately, except where that failed. How many succeeded? We might never learn. MSM won't cover them. Why? MSM exists to brainwash, to propagandize.
During the Watt's riots, no stores were touched when the owner stood in front with a rifle. Self-defense gets no press. My father-in-law has a warning sign on the front of his house: "I don't call 911" with a picture of a pistol. It's worked for a half century. Criminals are cowards.
the cops let Antifa do so bc. Antifa are cops.
Look. at the Berkeley riots where cops stood idly by while felonies were comitted.
Whom else buy cops could march in the streets concealing their identities and without fear of reprisal, commit felonies while other cops do nothing?
I was born in the mid 50's so most of my contemporaries came from what today would be considered large families. Most women I knew in my early 20's would say they wanted to have anywhere from 3-6 children. I noticed inevitably that when they had a child the total amount of children they wanted would decrease. Most contemporaries have had 2 children, some three, some one. Being pregnant and having kids is hard on a woman. It's not surprising that personal preference would reduce the number of children a woman would have, especially as motherhood is no longer the only defined role for a woman.
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Millennial women are more likely than baby boomers to achieve their reproductive goals, which strongly suggests that having fewer children is a cultural choice rather than financial difficulties
https://www.orologilusso.eu/
"Americans are prone to believing "declension narratives," or stories about how the Golden Age ended sometime in the past and we have the bad luck to live in a world that is uniquely awful, unfair, and corrupt"
No, just Democrats. The rest of us are not narcissistic, nihilist- sociopaths and fatalists
"The rest of us are not narcissistic, nihilist- sociopaths and fatalists"
You are being far too hard on yourself. Declining fertility rates are a perfectly natural and healthy response of a population under stress.