Is AI Really an Existential Threat?

Plus: California's new restrictions on social media, Trump's $5,000 “dividend,” and the future of libertarianism.

1x 1.1x 1.25x 1.5x 2x 3x

:15 :15

Download

Is AI Really an Existential Threat?

HD Video Download

This week, editors Peter Suderman, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Nick Gillespie, and Matt Welch discuss whether warnings from leading artificial intelligence companies that AI could pose an existential threat should be taken seriously. They debate calls to slow the development of frontier AI and question whether regulation would reduce genuine risks or simply protect today's dominant companies from competition.

The editors also discuss California's new restrictions on social media and AI and the potential consequences for privacy and free expression. They then turn to President Donald Trump's proposal to give $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans win the midterm elections. Would Trump's proposed "dividend" bear any resemblance to a tax cut? And what would a roughly $1.3 trillion payout mean for a country already $40 trillion in debt? A listener asks what the past decade of American politics says about the future of libertarianism, the Democratic Party, and a post-Trump Republican Party. Finally, the editors remember their friend and longtime Reason fan Andrew Wimsatt, who died last week. Matt reflects on Wimsatt's generosity and selflessness, as well as his years of support for Reason and its community.

0:00–Tech leaders call for a slowdown in frontier AI development.
21:45–California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs social media child safety bills.
30:17–Listener question on the past decade in politics
39:58–Trump promises a $5,000 "dividend."
50:53–Remembering Andrew Wimsatt
54:20–Weekly cultural recommendations

Upcoming Reason Events

The Reason Roundtable's 10th Anniversary—Live in NYC! October 7

The World Premiere of Escaping Venezuela October 13

 

Mentioned in the Podcast:

"Anthropic CEO Calls for an AI Slowdown, Other Tech Leaders Cosign," by Liz Wolfe
"The Age of Stupid—and Self-Serving—AI Regulation Is Here!," by Nick Gillespie
"AI Doom Is Misguided, Not a Psyop," by Robby Soave
"Is AI Really Taking All the Jobs? Anthropic Co-Founder Reveals the Data," by Nick Gillespie
"This California Social Media Law Is a Privacy and Free Speech 'Nightmare'," by Meagan O'Rourke
"You're Wrong About Social Media Being Addictive," by Peter Suderman, Nick Gillespie, Katherine Mangu-Ward, and Matt Welch
"George Will: Brace Yourself for the Authoritarian Moment," by Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch
"I Tried To Find Out What Republicans Think of Trump's $5,000 Checks. Then I Got Trapped," by Billy Binion
"The Flow," by Andrew Wimsatt

What are we consuming this week?

Peter Suderman

• Silo (Season 3)

Katherine Mangu-Ward

• Dutch House: A Novel by Ann Patchett

Nick Gillespie

• The Shards, by Ryan Murphy and Bret Easton Ellis

Matt Welch

• Bazaar Meat

---

Comments

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Same answer as for climate catastrophe: if the Greenies actually believed their own propaganda, they wouldn't be issuing press releases, they'd be moving heaven and earth for nuclear power NOW instead of huge expensive slow and unreliable solar and wind projects; if these AI insiders actually believed AI was an existential threat, they'd sabotage the companies they worked for instead of holding press conferences.

In short, no, AI is not an existential threat. This is AI leaders trying to follow the AT&T path of government regulation to lock out the small nimble upstarts who threaten to eat their lunch.

[mad.casual]

Flip side of the same coin: at some point we will either burn out and stop using all fossil fuels or we will find something better and stop using fossil fuels.

Similarly, Mythos and ChatGPT aren't going to kill us all but eventually, the human race will either go through a myriad of options between going extinct, undergoing radical mutation/evolution, or intentionally modifying itself to the point of no longer being human (however defined). AI will be involved one way or the other. Even if only to document our own self-destruction.

[Zeb]

If AI is an existential threat, then we're all gonna die. I don't think we're getting that toothpaste back into the tube.
Seems to me these companies just want to be the ones having major input to the regulations so they can have a nice legal monopoly (or oligopoly, I guess).

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Yep, first to whine for regulation have a better chance of controlling the regulation and blocking competitors.

Government regulation locks in the status quo and blocks the innovation that solves problems and improves the future. Some ancient Greeks supposedly hated writing because it weakened the role of rote memorization and the art of public speaking. Nothing has changed.

[Neutral not Neutered]

Yes it is. Once the higher levels are reached any rogue can send out and hack, attack, and take control of weaker defended systems.

We already deal with this, with AI it will become far worse.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

And how exactly do you propose putting the horse back in the barn?

[MollyGodiva]

High explosives would be effective.

[middlefinger]

The top three -four models are openly suggesting an agreed upon slow down of production. These sneaky mo fos want a price fixing cartel.

[Fats of Fury]

Is AI Really an Existential Threat?
Could be.
https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/woman-loses-thousands-scammer-suspected-ai-mimic-daughters/story?id=133307515

[rbike]

Umm, just keep closed systems in place. AI can monitor the systems but just don't connect the control system. Most .machinery runs independently. Monitoring it's operation is easy without getting control. Any government or utility that connects their control system to the Internet is criminally negligent.

And no, you should not die if you cannot connect to Tik Tok or even this forum.

[mad.casual]

Already seeing the pushback: the mechanical dishwasher worked for over 100 yrs. without needing Wi-Fi (Wi-Fi being the gateway for AI-control). Why we have and people now pay for subscriptions to use the rinse cycle for their dishwasher is unfathomable.

Deloitte says users averaged 25 connected "smart" devices in the home in 2021, down to around 18 today and most of these are TV/Entertainment devices.

[MollyGodiva]

Yes, it is absolutely an existential threat.