Election 2018

How Much Don't We Know About the Midterms?: Podcast

Polling uncertainty and a surge in voter enthusiasm could make tomorrow an embarrassing day for many in the political class.


#ItBegins ||| Texas Secretary of State
Texas Secretary of State

Are you ready for the next 30 hours or so of political hysteria, spoiler-hunting, and supremely confident innumeracy? Then you're in the right place! Today's editor-roundtable midterms-preview edition of the Reason Podcast includes, thank Jeebus, Managing Editor Stephanie Slade, who has forgotten more about polling than most of us will ever know. Slade leads us in walking through the numbers and potential meanings of massive early-voting turnout, shaky state-level polls, and the built-in uncertainty of (justifiably!) basing this year's election forecasts on last cycle's voter behavior. It's unknowable out there, kids, so don't fall for early exit polls.

The usual crew of Katherine Mangu-Ward, Nick Gillespie, and yours truly also pick out races of note, discuss the implications of President Donald Trump's hard pivot to caravan/immigration politics in the homestretch, talk smack about Daylight Saving Time, and in open defiance of Slade make a series of probably disastrous predictions for Election Day.

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Audio production by Ian Keyser.

'Three Stories' by Blue Dot Sessions is licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0

Relevant links from the show:

"Tomorrow Is the Most Important Election of Our Lifetime. Don't Let Trump Denialists Tell You Otherwise," by Shikha Dalmia

"This Isn't the Most Important Election of Your Lifetime. Not Even Close," by David Harsanyi

"The Most Important Election of Our Lives?" by Elizabeth Nolan Brown

"It's OK Not to Vote," by Katherine Mangu-Ward

"Control of the Senate Could Depend on These 10 Races," by Joe Setyon

"10 House Races Libertarians Should Watch on Election Night," by Eric Boehm & Zuri Davis

"Donald Trump Fails to Confront the Truth About the Migrant Caravan," by Shikha Dalmia

"Trump's Executive Order Ending Birthright Citizenship Is All About the Midterms," by Eric Boehm

"Republicans Whip Up Pre-Midterm Fears With Lies About Invading Migrant Caravan," by Elizabeth Nolan Brown

"How Third Parties Are Getting Screwed This Election Season," by Matt Welch & Alexis Garcia

"Indiana Democrats Encourage Conservatives to Vote for Libertarian Lucy Brenton for Senate," by Matt Welch

"4 More States Could Legalize Medical or Recreational Marijuana Next Week," by Jacob Sullum

"Let Daylight Saving Time Die Already," by Zuri Davis

"Why We Have Daylight Saving Time and Why We Should Scrap It," by Andrew Heaton

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What are we consuming this week?

Matt Welch

  • Recognition of Bob Poole for Reason's 50th Anniversary

Katherine Mangu-Ward

Stephanie Slade