Why Isn't Bin Laden Ready For His Close Up?
The unexpected broadcast of an audio tape apparently featuring the voice of Osama bin Laden has fueled speculation not only that the world's most-hunted man is still alive, but that Al Qaeda is gearing up for a new string of high-intensity terrorist attacks against Western targets.
"Bin Laden Seen Alive and Kicking with New Tape," is how the famously relativistic news agency Reuters put it. The tape aired Wednesday on the Qatar-based, Arab-language satellite television station Al Jazeera (an English translation of the station's account is available here.) According to The Washington Post and others, bin Laden "extolled the recent attacks in Bali and Moscow in a bellicose statement" that also "hailed the fatal shooting of a U.S. Marine in Kuwait, the assassination of an American diplomat in Jordan and the attempt to sink a French oil tanker off Yemen." The tape also lays down a series of threats aimed primarily at the U.S. and Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Canada, and Australia: "You will be killed just as you kill, and will be bombed just as you bomb. And expect more that will further distress you." Implicit in such a message is a warning to Arab and Islamic states that have signed on to the United Nations resolution regarding Iraq.
U.S. officials have yet to say whether they think the tape is legitimate. But even if it is, it suggests a seriously weakened Al Qaeda, not an emboldened one.
Consider this friendly explanation of why bin Laden is pulling a Garbo. "He probably has changed the way he looks and doesn't want to give away his new features," Abdel-Bary Atwan, editor of the London-based and bin Laden-boosting al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper, told Reuters. Such reasoning is unconvincing, especially since back in June, an Al Qaeda spokesman boasted that bin Laden was indeed taping a comeback special and that he would "soon appear in a television interview." It's much more likely, especially given the post-9/11 footage that has surfaced, that bin Laden has been so seriously wounded or debilitated that his appearance would take the oomph out of his call to off the U.S. "gang of butchers."
Another theory also fails to persuade: That audio is less likely than video to give clues to bin Laden's secret location. Al Qaeda had licked that problem early on by tightening up its camera angle to minimize any such information.
As Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria has written, Al Qaeda's two recent big "successes"—bombing a French oil tanker off the Yemeni coast and a nightclub in Bali—underscore that the group is limiting its ambitions to non-American targets and working only in places where it either already has deep roots (Yemen) or can exploit weak governments (Indonesia). Through 9/11, Al Qaeda bombed American ships, embassies, and even targets on U.S. soil with impunity. Since then, notes Zakaria, it has not been able to "hit America," with the exception of shooting a U.S. serviceman in Kuwait. The crucial difference, says Zakaria, is that "before September 11 Al Qaeda was doing what it wanted to do; now it is doing what it can."
As important, Al Qaeda's recent attacks have had the effect of enlisting more countries in the hunt for bin Laden and crew. Which isn't to say that they won't do more damage before they're through. But when your movement's front man refuses to appear on camera, even the most blood-curdling shout-out to all "pious Muslims defending their religion and heeding God's orders" sounds more than a little anemic.
