China Helps Iran
Plus: Baby bust affects college enrollment, migrants flood into Spain, I'm writing a book, and more...
Hamas disarmament: Yesterday, President Donald Trump announced that the Board of Peace, the entity overseeing the ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, has brokered a deal that will lead Hamas to start disarming.
"For the first time, Hamas officially has committed to an actionable plan for relinquishing all its weapons, which will be followed by Israeli withdrawal," said the board. This was a major demand of Israel's.
When good news comes on one front, bad news follows on another: "Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defence missile launchers, three sources familiar with the deal told Reuters, as it rebuilds its defences amid war with the United States," per Reuters. "The purchase, valued at $60-70 million, is one of Tehran's largest-known efforts to strengthen its short-range air defences since the outbreak of its war with the U.S. and Israel, which exposed gaps in Iran's ability to protect military sites and strategic infrastructure. The contract covers the purchase of between 300 and 400 man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles, the sources said."
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Chinese leverage appears to matter a bit more, now. "As the Iran war escalates again, Gulf Arab states are looking to China—not Washington—to use its economic leverage over Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, testing how far Beijing is able and willing to pressurise Tehran," according to Reuters. "The Gulf push for a bigger Chinese role is driven by growing frustration, Gulf sources say. The war launched with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28 has hurt their regional foe but also restricted their vital energy exports and, to varying degrees, put them in the firing line. With Iran and its allies threatening the Bab el-Mandeb waterway in the Red Sea as well as Hormuz, Gulf states have sought Beijing's help, conscious that the war has exposed the limits of American power, three regional sources say. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held dozens of calls and meetings with counterparts seeking a new ceasefire, while special envoy Zhai Jun has held talks in Gulf Arab capitals as well as Iran."
This is exactly what the situation doesn't need.
"The outcome of the Iran war will be shaped in part by axis behavior," notes The Wall Street Journal editorial board. "As much as the U.S. has degraded Iran's missile arsenal, will China swiftly facilitate its rebuilding? Will Russia, indebted for the assistance in fighting Ukraine, help revive Iran's nuclear program? Will either one provide more advanced air defenses?"
Scenes from New York:
Welcome to the next 30 years. The Baby Bust means college enrollment will just fall for the forseeable future. https://t.co/5b2NIBn1C8
— Tim Carney (@TPCarney) July 31, 2026
QUICK HITS
- "Spain rushed to tighten border security after tens of thousands of immigrants illegally entered a tiny Spanish territory in North Africa, overwhelming local authorities and sparking what could be Europe's biggest immigration crisis in years," reports The Wall Street Journal. "Spain's Interior Ministry said Friday that roughly 50,000 people had entered Ceuta from surrounding Morocco on Thursday and early Friday."
- Wow:
While you were sleeping, the Commerce Department announced that it has - via the CHIPS Act* - taken SEVEN new equity stakes in private semiconductor firms.
American Socialism continues apace.https://t.co/dz9kRKADpo
*Which doesn't expressly authorize govt equity stakes. pic.twitter.com/cuO8uPJ8FG
— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) July 30, 2026
- There's a clash brewing in Southern California, as people and developers try to rebuild from the wildfires that ravaged the area last year, notes Politico. Most former homeowners are trying to rebuild roughly the same houses they had before, but developers are trying to take advantage of the situation to pursue denser rebuilds. What's a YIMBY supposed to do?
- I am very torn on this, and don't want my libertarian card revoked: "Late last year, I walked roughly a mile from downtown Seattle to the working-class neighborhood of Little Saigon and came upon a montage of human despair," writes Michael Powell for The Atlantic. "An open-air drug market stretched along the intersection of 12th and Jackson: about 250 people, many smoking fentanyl or bent over in the thrall of the drug, tilting as if mid-fall. Three women lay passed out on the sidewalk, their chests slowly rising and falling, while fellow addicts stepped over them and dealers made sales. Young boys, schoolbags on their backs, stood on a far corner and watched. I walked around the block to the Hoa Mai playground, named for a Vietnamese flower that signifies rebirth. City workers had installed gates to keep drug users away, but at 4 p.m. on a Wednesday, I counted 27 people smoking drugs and nodding off. No children were in sight." I know the answer is probably not arresting each offender and throwing them in jail, but I struggle a lot with the degree to which many big city officials have de facto ceded our public spaces to people that children simply cannot be around, rendering playgrounds and parks unusable to the people who paid for them. (Two winters ago, I worked with the local cops in Queens to get a homeless encampment with drug paraphernalia cleared from the playground, which feels a bit heartless but also very fair—especially because the people in distress have ample shelters they can go to in the freezing winter.)
- In case you missed it: "Many of you followed along as my second son was born, stayed in the NICU for 61 days, came home for 9, and sadly passed away. It feels a bit like the cruelest possible joke to have one son who skateboards, who can drop in on a 6-foot quarter pipe at the age of 3, and another born fragile and sickly, made whole only by God in heaven, but not by doctors here on Earth. As if my son dying wasn't bad enough, we also happen to live in New York City. This is the land where many people get started having kids at age 40, where the median household income is high, where the mayor hopes to help parents outsource childrearing from 6 weeks and on (with little thought given to stay-at-home parents or families who hope to make different choices). It's a place I've repeatedly encountered padlocked playgrounds in 60-degree weather; where restaurants have age minimums and anti-stroller policies; where schools hemorrhage enrollment. The culture feels topsy turvy, and people are either having fewer kids, or choosing not to have them at all." I'm writing a book about all this. I hope you'll read it. I'll be using Substack to give updates about the book, and I'll try to do a decent job not spamming my dear readers of Roundup!
