Ready for War?
Plus: Trump's trade trouble, a long SOTU, and more gunboat diplomacy
A new war of choice? It's become increasingly evident that the United States is preparing for a possible war with Iran. Reports differ on what, exactly, is being contemplated. Some suggest a prolonged war. Others hint at the possibility of a symbolic strike. It's unclear whether President Donald Trump himself has made a decision. But what's undeniable is that the U.S. has moved a truly massive amount of manpower and firepower into the region, including two aircraft carrier groups.
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Yet it's unclear whether the military is actually ready for a prolonged conflict. The Wall Street Journal reports that Pentagon officials are sounding the alarm about U.S. preparedness, "advising that war plans being considered carry risks including U.S. and allied casualties, depleted air defenses and an overtaxed force." Pentagon leaks have landed in other major outlets too. Someone on the inside thinks this war could be a disaster.
A long campaign could result in casualties, and it could draw down supplies of munitions. As Reason's Matthew Petti wrote last year, there's a real risk that, in a prolonged campaign, the American military could run out of bombs.
If the U.S. military commits manpower, equipment, and munitions to a war of choice in the Middle East, that would inevitably weaken its ability to respond should another conflict—say, with China—arrive. Even in the best possible scenarios, there would be real tradeoffs.
But Trump himself denies that any such tradeoffs exist. Most of the stories about America's lack of preparedness and the cost of a prolonged war seem to emanate from Gen. Dan Caine. Caine, notably, was "all in" on the recent operation in Venezuela to capture the country's leader, Nicolás Maduro, according to Axios. Yet in this case, a source tells Axios, Caine is a "reluctant warrior."
In a social media post last night, Trump dismissed such concerns, saying that while Caine, "like all of us, would not like to see War," there was no reason to fret about U.S. military capabilities. The Trump administration is currently in nuclear talks with Iran, and that seems to be the hinge for Trump. "I would rather have a Deal than not," he wrote, "but, if we don't make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country, and, very sadly, its people, because they are great and wonderful, and something like this should never have happened to them."
On yesterday's Reason Roundtable, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Nick Gillespie, Eric Boehm, and I talked about the buildup to a possible war with Iran. One of the most remarkable things about this moment is that there has been almost no public case made by the administration. Trump has suggested that it's about preventing the country from building nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested other possible reasons. But what's clear is that administration officials aren't even making a cursory attempt to justify what could be a major war to the public.
Trump's trade wars aren't going so well either. After the Supreme Court ruled last week that most of the president's tariffs were illegal, Trump instituted a new set of tariffs (which are also probably based on an illegal use of executive power). Trump's revised global tariff was first set at 10 percent, and then he said on social media he intended for the rate to be 15 percent. But reports now say that the initial collection notice only mentioned a rate of 10 percent.
Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are trying to push the Trump administration to refund $175 billion in tariff payments that were collected through the tariffs that the Court ruled were illegal.
Congress could still step in to legislate and clarify issues surrounding Trump's tariffs. And in many ways, the Supreme Court's tariff ruling was a rebuke of Congress, a demand, or perhaps a plea, to do its job. But Congress appears to have little interest in doing so. On the question of tariffs, GOP Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said: "It's going to be, I think, a challenge to find consensus on any path forward on the tariffs on the legislative side. And so that is why I think you see so much of the attention on the executive side, the executive branch, of what they're doing and how they're reacting to the ruling and all the rest." In other words, they're going to keep doing nothing. Business as usual.
Scenes from Washington, D.C.: Trump's State of the Union address to Congress is tonight. According to The Wall Street Journal, he plans to sell the economy: "He is expected to tick through prominent policies, including tax cuts passed by Republicans in Congress last year and efforts to lower prescription drug prices."
Trump has already said that the speech will be a long one, so stock up on your favorite batched cocktail. The Reason staff will be gathering in our office to watch and cover the speech. Check out our website for updates throughout the evening.
QUICK HITS
- Will the Senate curb surveillance abuse?
- "Stay on our side." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy makes a plea to Trump.
- AI might make it possible to de-anonymize online writing.
- The Trump administration is still taking out alleged drug boats in the Caribbean.
- To no one's surprise, the CIA reportedly helped the Mexican government with the operation that resulted in the death of the cartel leader known as "El Mencho." The cartel leader was reportedly captured by tracking him down at an overnight stay with a romantic partner.
- Warner Bros. Discovery, which last year announced that it would be acquired by Netflix, is expected to review a new, updated bid from Netflix rival Paramount Skydance.
- Is the Xbox as we know it over? After a recent change in leadership at the gaming platform, one of the original co-creators of Microsoft's gaming console, Seamus Blackley, thinks it is. Blackley thinks the company is going all-in on artificial intelligence, which means gaming will be left to die.
- Speaking of which: The AI panic is tanking Wall Street. You see those valuation numbers dropping? That's investors feeling the AGI.
