As Public School Enrollment Drops, Alternative Options Gain Traction

Private schools, charter schools, and homeschooling add students despite dwindling numbers of kids.

A new school year is here, and while millions of students still trudge off to public school classrooms and days divided by subjects, there are fewer kids making that trek than in the past, and their experiences aren't nearly so similar as once was the case. The ranks of public school students are thinning, partly because of the declining birth rate, but also because a growing share of the population prefers alternatives like private schools and homeschooling. They're increasingly assisted with funding from education choice programs.

It's a familiar journey to me, since my wife and I mostly homeschooled our son, with detours through charter and private schools. We're less alone in our choices than ever before.

Fewer Kids and a Lot Fewer Public School Students

"K-12 enrollment is on the decline between a combination of dropping birth rates and more school choice options, putting schools in a tight bind," Lexi Lonas Cochran reported for The Hill at the end of August. "The public school system is expected to see a drop of millions of students over the next five years, a hit that will affect schools financially and potentially lead to the closure of more districts."

Cochran noted that the U.S. fertility rate, declining like that in many other countries around the world, hit historic lows in recent years. Fewer births mean fewer children to educate in years to come. But, adds Cochran, "since COVID-19, the interest in homeschooling and private school options has exploded, especially as states pass legislation making it easier for children to go to other schools, and taking some money from public school systems to do it."

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, total public elementary and secondary school enrollment fell from a peak of 50.8 million in 2019 to 49.6 million in 2022. It's believed to be under 49 million now and expected to fall below 47 million in 2030.

The effects are felt all over the country. In Florida, Miami-Dade County Public School enrollment is down by more than 12,000 students from last year. In Texas, the large Houston-area Cypress–Fairbanks school district is down by 6,400 students in the same period; a report presented to the school board noted that "students are increasingly transferring out of Cy-Fair ISD to pursue other education options, such as charters, private schools and homeschooling." In Nevada, the Clark County School District dropped from more than 330,000 students in 2019 to fewer than 286,000 now; the Las Vegas Review-Journal editorial board acknowledges fertility decline but adds that charter schools "have seen their enrollment skyrocket" and that families also increasingly favor homeschooling and private schools.

As Public Schools Disappoint, Other Options Gain Favor

Overall, Genevieve Smith and Angela R. Watson write in Harvard's EducationNext, as of 2023, "nearly 6 percent of all school-aged children nationwide were reported as homeschooled during the 2022–23 school year. This compares to 10 percent of students in private schools and 84 percent in public schools." That partially obscures the degree of change, since about 7 percent of public school students now attend privately managed, publicly funded charter schools, up from 4 percent in 2010. The share of homeschoolers doubled just since 2020, increasing from around 3 percent of students.

The "why" of these shifts in where and how students are educated has many causes, including disappointment with public school quality, proliferating options, and the ease with which educational materials can be accessed over the Internet. But, as Tara Moon observes in coverage of declining public school enrollment for FutureEd, "the pandemic played a major role in accelerating the decline…. Some families withdrew their children entirely and educated them at home, while others opted for private schools, many of which resumed in-person learning sooner than public schools."

Many families were horrified by learning losses they saw in their children when schools bungled remote learning during pandemic lockdowns. They were often equally disturbed by what they saw over their kids' shoulders in terms of lesson content. Recent polling finds that "nearly two-thirds (64%) of school parents say K-12 education is headed in the wrong direction, up eight points from last year." Thirty-six percent of parents say they would send their children to private school if they could, 14 percent would choose homeschooling, 10 percent prefer charter schools, and 40 percent would stick with traditional public schools. Existing private school parents report the highest satisfaction with their choice, followed by homeschoolers and charter school parents, with traditional public school parents at the rear.

The more families unhappy with traditional schooling who turned to private schools or decided to teach their own kids, either alone or in arrangements like learning pods and microschools, the more awareness of and comfort with education options increased. That has driven demand for reforms that ease access to education choices other than traditional public schools.

Surging Participation in School Choice

Writing for EdChoice, Brandon Ruder reported last week that "in just one year, the total number of students participating in private school choice programs across the nation skyrocketed, increasing by 25%." Nationally, over 1.3 million children now use such programs—Education Savings Accounts (ESAs), in particular. The details vary from state to state, but ESAs make education funding portable, allocating money that follows students to the schooling of their choice rather than assigning it to a building or district. That eases matters for families that would otherwise pay for tuition or education materials on top of the burden of taxes that support public schools.

Similarly, the Johns Hopkins School of Education Homeschool Hub revealed last year that "twenty-one states have reported homeschool participation for 2023-2024. Of those, only two show a decline." Of the two states reporting a decline, New Hampshire stopped counting homeschooled students who receive ESA funding as homeschoolers, "so, this decline may not truly reflect a decrease in actual homeschool participation, but may be just a change in how students are counted in this state."

For the 2023–2024 school year, the Homeschool Hub found the highest shares of homeschooled students in Alaska (16.15 percent), Tennessee (10.75 percent), and Montana (9.03 percent). The lowest shares were in Connecticut (3.01 percent), Washington, D.C. (3.04 percent), and Massachusetts (3.39 percent).

And remember that the ranks of students in charter schools, private schools, and homeschooling are increasing not only as the number of students in traditional public schools declines but as the total number of school-age children falls. In the years to come, there will be fewer kids overall, and their education experiences will vary far more widely than those of recent generations.

From experience, I assure parents and students alike that this changing environment will work out just fine. School days will come and go, as always. But they'll be better, since the schools will be chosen by families, not just assigned by default.