Americans Want Order, not Cruelty, at the Border

Trump promised to target violent criminals. He lost support when he went after harmless immigrants.

Many missteps by the Biden–Harris administration and Democrats eased the path to victory for Donald Trump and the GOP, but Trump may be best known for embracing immigration and border control as his signature issues. His administration acted quickly to round up undocumented migrants and to publicize its activities, so you'd expect voters to be delighted. But surveys find declining concern about the border, lower support for deportations, and growing favorability for increased immigration. What gives? If you look at the data, it's clear that most Americans like immigration and favor order at the border—not cruel overreaction.

Last year, it was obvious that immigration worries boosted Trump's candidacy. In October, a majority of respondents told YouGov pollsters that they trusted the GOP candidate to do a better job on immigration than then-Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. The most important immigration concern for respondents—at 51 percent—was "border enforcement."

In office, the Trump administration stepped up border controls. It militarized sections of the border, toughened screening of would-be migrants, increased deportations, and staged high-profile Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids to arrest undocumented immigrants. Unauthorized border crossings are now down "to a level not seen in at least 25 years" according to CBS News.

Declining Support for the Administration's Immigration Crackdown

That's pretty much what Trump said he'd do, so you'd expect the plurality that put him in office to be happy. Instead, though, Gallup finds support "lower today for deporting all undocumented immigrants, with 38% now favoring this as the administration is attempting it, down from 47% last year when it was a Trump campaign promise." At the same time, "support for allowing undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens has risen to 78%, up from 70% last year."

Reducing immigration overall has dropped from a goal favored last year by a majority to a position favored by just 30 percent of respondents. A full 79 percent say that immigration is a good thing.

This is quite a turnabout. The public appears to be amazingly fickle. Or maybe Trump is delivering something different than people expected.

Last year, much of the discussion of undocumented migrants revolved around crimes—often horrendous—committed by gang members, many from Venezuela. The much-publicized alleged takeover of Aurora, Colorado, apartment complexes by gangsters played a big role, as did the murder of Laken Riley, and several vicious rapes. And there lies the key to understanding the public mood.

In the YouGov poll, tied for second place as immigration concerns after "border control" were "pathways to citizenship" and "drug smuggling." That suggests respondents worried about crime, not migrants.

Just after Gallup, Harvard CAPS/Harris released a poll this week that also asked about immigration. Consistent with Gallup, the Harvard CAPS/Harris pollsters found 59 percent support for "more due process and guaranteed hearings to prevent unfair deportations." Fifty-five percent support allowing "the children of those who are here illegally in the United States automatically becoming U.S. citizens."

Americans Are Worried About Criminals, Not Immigrants in General

But a full 79 percent are in favor of "deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes" and 70 percent support "closing the border with added security and policies that discourage illegal crossings." Seventy-nine percent believe "convicted criminals who are here illegally should be deported after their sentence is over."

As in the Gallup poll, there's support for creating pathways to citizenship for migrants in general—even those who crossed the border illegally. But respondents don't want other countries' criminals here, want enforcement efforts at the border that could keep criminals out, and favor tough efforts to remove those who have been convicted of crimes.

Importantly for the outcome of last year's elections, 67 percent of respondents to the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll believed there was an "open border" under the Biden administration and 69 percent say that was "deliberate policy."

So, Americans' attitudes aren't fickle, they're nuanced. When asked, people are rather enthusiastic about immigration and immigrants. But they want order at the border, not chaos. They support screening would-be migrants for criminal backgrounds, to exclude those who have preyed on people in the past and are likely to do the same in the future. And they want immigrants who have committed serious crimes in the U.S. to be sent back to their home countries.

Trump Went Too Far Beyond His Border Policy Assurances

That's not what the Trump administration has delivered. White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller famously tore into ICE officials in May for not arresting enough migrants. He urged them to look for undocumented migrants to round up at Home Depot and 7-Eleven—places you're more likely to find hopeful laborers than gang-bangers—with a goal of scooping up 3,000 people per day.

The result has been much-publicized raids of meatpacking plants and farms. Among those caught in the dragnet have been U.S. citizens. People working difficult jobs in fields and factories are unlikely to be trigger-pullers for international criminal syndicates. Unsurprisingly, when it crunched the numbers on the arrests, the Associated Press found "the majority of people currently detained by ICE have no criminal convictions. Of those who do, relatively few have been convicted of high-level crimes."

According to the data, that's not what Americans voted for when they turfed-out Biden, Harris, and their cronies in favor of Trump and his crew. On the immigration issue, voters wanted to get rid of an administration that people believed was deliberately refusing to enforce border controls. Trump won on a promise to impose order and target dangerous criminals who'd been allowed into the country.

The Trump administration actually did that, and if it had stuck with that policy, the public would likely be happier. But then it started scooping up anybody who crossed the border without authorization (and some who were authorized) and lost support. No matter what Miller and company's sentiments are, Americans like immigration and favor admitting more peaceful and productive migrants.

Ultimately, Americans want order, not cruelty, at the border, and that's how they voted. The Trump administration sheds support when it abandons one extreme on immigration for another.