Tariff Vengeance

Plus: Prime sales slumping, Hill Country flood victim search continues, Diocese of San Bernardino takes on ICE, and more...

Trump comes to Bolsonaro's aid: President Donald Trump has, at times, claimed that his tariffs are due to other countries' unfair trade practices: "We are going to have 10 percent to 20 percent tariffs on foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years, we are going to charge them 10 percent to 20 percent to come in and take advantage of our country because that is what they have been doing," he said in August 2024. But he's also claimed that "large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits have led to the hollowing out of our manufacturing base," and that tariffs will revive that sector, returning loads of dignified middle-class jobs to America.

Consider another possibility that Trump's tariffs are not about either of the stated justifications—unfair trade practices or hollowed-out domestic manufacturing—but about a secret third thing: Seeking vengeance for his friends.

Yesterday's 50 percent tariff imposed on all Brazilian imports is a good example of this. Trump hasn't even hidden behind many of his usual excuses (though he did claim we have a trade deficit with Brazil, when really we have a surplus), but has more overtly claimed that the new front in the trade war is retribution for the "witch hunt" going on domestically in Brazil against his political ally, former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. "The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his Term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace," wrote Trump in his letter to current Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Bolsonaro is facing prosecution for his attempt to overturn the vote that declared him a loser in the last presidential election. ("Bolsonaro is the most investigated president in the country's history," one of Bolsonaro's lawyers told the court, in a soundbite reminiscent of what many have said about Trump. "Absolutely nothing has been found.")

But one could be wholly sympathetic to Bolsonaro and share Trump's affinity for him, yet still reject the mechanism used to attempt to wield influence. Why are American businesses and consumers who wish to buy from Brazil punished for the actions of Lula?

"While the full consequences of this approach by the White House are yet to be seen, the immediate winner of Trump's attack is none other than Bolsonaro's nemesis, the leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva," writes Juan Pablo Spinetto for Bloomberg. "The temperamental former union boss has been teasing Trump for months, urging him to 'think' before speaking and accusing him of 'trying to become an emperor of the world,' among other jabs that went unanswered. That Trump took the bait at this moment is a gift for Lula, who has made a career of blaming the Americans for every misfortune of his governments—and the world."

Continues Spinetto:

"Trump may not have noticed, but his outburst toward Brazil bears more than a passing resemblance to his assault on Canada: By threatening it with outsized tariffs, mocking its sovereignty and meddling in its internal affairs, he stoked nationalism, changing the course of an election that appeared to have been lost for the Liberal Party. Something similar may well happen in Brazil, where Lula is looking to win a historic fourth term next year despite struggling with a decline in his popularity and economic difficulties."

So from a foreign policy perspective, and from the perspective of achieving his desired outcome in Brazil, Trump's move is foolish. From the perspective of reshoring critical industries to bolster American manufacturing, Trump's move is foolish. From a perspective of correcting the trade deficit, which appears to be one of his goals even though it doesn't make any sense, Trump's move is foolish (and also he is wrong on the merits). The only thing accomplished by this is the continued closing off of America to the world, at great cost to normal people who are just looking to buy beef, coffee, and bananas, who did not take part in any Brazilian witch hunt and don't even know who Jair Bolsonaro is.

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Scenes from New York: Eric Adams' newest unofficial adviser: Bill Ackman.

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QUICK HITS

• This past year, amid the turbulence caused by tariffs, Amazon made a risky gamble: It moved Prime Day from a two-day event to a four-day one, and has so far seen very little payoff. "Momentum Commerce, which manages online sales for 50 brands in a variety of product categories and price points, said its Amazon sales plunged 41% on Tuesday when compared with the start of Prime Day last year," reports Bloomberg. Some analysts are theorizing the longer shopping window has created less urgency, while others believe the tariff impact—indicated to shoppers by less-discounted prices than usual—is dampening sales.
• "A Georgia couple whose children were taken from them for two years following a false claim of child abuse have filed a lawsuit, arguing that the Division of Family and Children Services (DFCS) officials violated official polices in an effort to sever their parental rights," reports Reason's Emma Camp.
• Beautiful vignettes memorializing some of the Texas Hill Country flooding victims. The death toll has reached 120, with 173 still missing. Here's a look ahead and how the Texas legislature might respond to this tragedy, from The Texas Tribune. And here's a sweet story about "Texas' FEMA"—aka the grocery chain H-E-B, which has a long history of helping during times of disaster, and the many Texas companies who are rendering aid to people in need.
• Catholics in the Diocese of San Bernardino who credibly fear deportation are dispensed from their obligation to attend Mass:

NEW: Bishop Rojas of San Bernardino has dispensed his Diocese from the obligation to attend Sunday Mass due to ongoing ICE raids. pic.twitter.com/VOdKp1HKqJ

— Rich Raho (@RichRaho) July 9, 2025

• Our pets will live in the pods and eat the bugs, apparently.
• God bless the First Amendment, long may it reign:

Update… I am NOT backing down…I sent this back with the help from @marcorandazza https://t.co/9VWvhuuNr5 pic.twitter.com/eE595M2DML

— Murray Hill Guy (@MurrayHillGuy1) July 9, 2025